Why I'm taking Portis over Tomlinson

[t.j 35]

Your thoughts on Rivers is where you and I will have to agree to disagree. I'm not saying he will suck dung all year but like Eli his first year will have many lessons to learn.

 

Are you talking about Eli's rookie year? With two years of NFL film study and coaching under his belt, Rivers is light years ahead of where Eli was as a rookie.

 

But I think for the 1st 8 to 9 weeks LT2 will get the crap beat out of him as Rivers dumps everything he can to LT2.

 

As you point out SD's run percentage should go up. I do agree with you there, but I am not convinced this will help LT2. If he takes a beating in the first 8 weeks he may wear down and as Rivers improves in the second half of the year they may have to rely on LT2 less to try and keep him healthy if they make a playoff run. IMO

 

I'm not concerned about LT "taking a beating". Every great fantasy back is going to have the ball a lot and is going to get tackled a lot. LT2 is elusive and durable and can withstand a lot of use. If you simply think San Diego's offense isn't going to be effective enough for LT2 to get his yards and TDs without getting an insane number of touches, then I can see your point about punishment. But, like you said, we'll have to agree to disagree about the effectiveness of the Chargers' offense. I think LT2 is going to get an equal number of touches to LJ and Shaun Alexander, more than Portis, and he'll be more effective per touch than all three.

 

BUT I disagree with your view of KC as they have been real good at filling the holes in their O-line. They have more holes than normal but I think they will be fine. LJ had 336 carries in 9 starts LT2 had 339 in 16. LJs Rec yards are better as well. LJ had 343 and 33 catches.

 

I actually agree with you that the argument I made about run/pass balance doesn't apply to KC so much. They will still run a lot, Trent Green isn't getting any younger, and they have Michael Bennett now. And yes they still have some good blockers on the line. And the Chiefs threw more than Seattle and Washington last year anyway. But I definitely see San Diego coming much closer to Seattle and Washington in terms of run/pass ratio this year.

 

If it were my decision and it very well might be in a few weeks I am leaning towards Portis. But that is mostly based on my views of Rivers. You and I disagree on him so that is IMO a major deciding factor in how we think he will impact LT2's rush and rec stats this year.

 

Anyway I hope our discussion shelps the original poster with his decision. Good Luck

 

[waterwolves 0]

I disagree.

 

I still have LT ahead of Portis at this pt, but not by much and they're both in same tier for me.

 

As much as I hate being on same wavelength as our resident MLB player, I'm considering trading down and gaining more value elsewhere should I get 3rd pick...as I feel the trade off between LT and portis is nominal if anything at all.

 

Some good arguements have been made for LT, particularly defending Rivers and his supporting cast...and though I do feel the team around him hurts him a bit, only nominally.

 

Basically, I still expect a very good year from Tomlinson, but for me this situation is less about LT falling off and more about Portis stepping up.

 

And with comparisons below I'm sure someone will mention that 'Wash's OL is not KC's OL'.

 

I'll respond that that Wash finished 7th in rushing yds with that OL last year...see improvement with Saunders scheme.

 

This is from previous post:

 

RE: PORTIS

Looked at Gibbs career as an HC and found the following:

 

RUSH ATTS

6 of 13 seasons top5

9 of 13 top10

12 of 13 top15

Tells me Gibbs will run the ball

 

RUSH TDS

5 of 13 seasons top5

7 of 13 top10

9 of 13 top15

Tells me he likes to score on the ground

 

10 of 13 seasons, ONE rb got lion share of carries/tds

Tells me he'll give it to one guy, if that's his workhorse

 

SCORING

4 of 13 seasons top5

7 of 13 top10

9 of 13 top15

Tells me his teams score pts

 

Also looking at Portis himself, compared to other 'workhorse' rbs at this stage of his career...trend is for his carries to go up even more, likely to the 380+ range.

 

Overall, that tells me Gibbs/Portis first year back in WAS was more an aberration as far as pts scored as a team/Portis td totals.

 

And that this year Portis in for a big year.

 

Now I add this info re: the Chiefs while Saunders was OC:

 

'01

rush yds 6th, rush tds 4th

'02

rush yds 3rd, rush tds 1st

'03

rush yds 15th, rush tds 1st

'04

rush yds 5th, rush tds 1st

'05

rush yds 4th, rush tds 2nd

 

that tells me Saunders also likes to run the ball and that he likes to run at the gl (and from 'previous post' comments, Saunders and Gibbs are on same page about doing both).

 

From previous post I also see 375+, but let's just say 350 at 4.5 (again conservative as see closer to his career 4.7-4.8) and that's still 1575yds.

 

Add 45recs (he's had as much as 40 and Saunders likes to throw to rb but they could use Betts for some) at 8.0 and that's 360yds.

 

That's over 1900totyds.

Any of these (which I could see at least one of happening): 20-25 more carries or .3 more ypc or 8-10 more recs and that's 2000totyds.

 

Then from history of Saunders/Gibbs and rush td rankings, and more importantly giving those tds to one rb, I have no problem projecting 15-17 and wouldn't be surprised at 20.

easy throwing around the 'stupid' comments tampa.

 

if you read back, water was responding to another post that pointed out that LT is a better option just b/c of his effectiveness in the passing game.

 

Wolves was pointing out that with Saunders (and has been reported recently) plans to throw the ball to portis more as part of the scheme/offense.

 

God I love this site. I could not have said it better myself. I will just add a few more comments.

 

1) Portis had 352 attempts for 1516 yards rushing 30 Rec for 216 yards and 11 TD's Do you think Al Saunders is going to help Portis or hurt him? The obvious anwser is he is going to help him. Thats a no Brainer. (If you don't agree with that quit reading now because it's pointless) So where I really think Saunders is going to increase Portis's value is in recieving yards and total TD's. So lets give Portis another 175 Rec yards on 23 more rec (7.6 an rec) and you almost have to say if he stays healthy Portis is good for another 5 TD's and I too would not be surprised if Portis broke 20 but I don't see him getting much more then 21 maybe 22. Still if you Prorate that all out thats 1907 total yards and minimum 16 TD's (That is a lock folks if Portis stay Healthy)with as much as 22 total TD's. That would put him 75 more total yards then LT got last year and 4 less TD's at my minimum projection. To me I could easliy take Portis on a trade down to the 4th spot.

 

2)LT is LT and I don't see him falling at all this year so close to 2000 yards and 20 TD's is basically going to happen barring injury. If you can get the same production basically from a RB one spot back why not trade down and pick up and extra 4th. If you are trading with the 4 guy which you would half too in order to guaruntee you get Portis you would get a early 4th round pick which means you could wait on you RB #2 if you want and get 2 Super stud WR in the 2nd and 3rd. That means in my book.

[xenophobe 1]

I disagree.

 

I still have LT ahead of Portis at this pt, but not by much and they're both in same tier for me.

 

As much as I hate being on same wavelength as our resident MLB player, I'm considering trading down and gaining more value elsewhere should I get 3rd pick...as I feel the trade off between LT and portis is nominal if anything at all.

 

Some good arguements have been made for LT, particularly defending Rivers and his supporting cast...and though I do feel the team around him hurts him a bit, only nominally.

 

Basically, I still expect a very good year from Tomlinson, but for me this situation is less about LT falling off and more about Portis stepping up.

 

And with comparisons below I'm sure someone will mention that 'Wash's OL is not KC's OL'.

 

I'll respond that that Wash finished 7th in rushing yds with that OL last year...see improvement with Saunders scheme.

 

This is from previous post:

 

RE: PORTIS

Looked at Gibbs career as an HC and found the following:

 

RUSH ATTS

6 of 13 seasons top5

9 of 13 top10

12 of 13 top15

Tells me Gibbs will run the ball

 

RUSH TDS

5 of 13 seasons top5

7 of 13 top10

9 of 13 top15

Tells me he likes to score on the ground

 

10 of 13 seasons, ONE rb got lion share of carries/tds

Tells me he'll give it to one guy, if that's his workhorse

 

SCORING

4 of 13 seasons top5

7 of 13 top10

9 of 13 top15

Tells me his teams score pts

 

Also looking at Portis himself, compared to other 'workhorse' rbs at this stage of his career...trend is for his carries to go up even more, likely to the 380+ range.

 

Overall, that tells me Gibbs/Portis first year back in WAS was more an aberration as far as pts scored as a team/Portis td totals.

 

And that this year Portis in for a big year.

 

Now I add this info re: the Chiefs while Saunders was OC:

 

'01

rush yds 6th, rush tds 4th

'02

rush yds 3rd, rush tds 1st

'03

rush yds 15th, rush tds 1st

'04

rush yds 5th, rush tds 1st

'05

rush yds 4th, rush tds 2nd

 

that tells me Saunders also likes to run the ball and that he likes to run at the gl (and from 'previous post' comments, Saunders and Gibbs are on same page about doing both).

 

From previous post I also see 375+, but let's just say 350 at 4.5 (again conservative as see closer to his career 4.7-4.8) and that's still 1575yds.

 

Add 45recs (he's had as much as 40 and Saunders likes to throw to rb but they could use Betts for some) at 8.0 and that's 360yds.

 

That's over 1900totyds.

Any of these (which I could see at least one of happening): 20-25 more carries or .3 more ypc or 8-10 more recs and that's 2000totyds.

 

Then from history of Saunders/Gibbs and rush td rankings, and more importantly giving those tds to one rb, I have no problem projecting 15-17 and wouldn't be surprised at 20.

easy throwing around the 'stupid' comments tampa.

 

if you read back, water was responding to another post that pointed out that LT is a better option just b/c of his effectiveness in the passing game.

 

Wolves was pointing out that with Saunders (and has been reported recently) plans to throw the ball to portis more as part of the scheme/offense.

 

NAn,

 

I appreciate your argument here, but this is a flawed way of looking at it. You're taking large chunks of data and plugging them into a vastly different context. With the parity in the league, this is often a stretch from year to year within a given team with the majority of the same players. Performing such an exercise across decades/conferences/teams is questionable IMO.

 

A more accurate baseline for Gibbs is what we saw last season. Factor in Saunders as you so choose, but bear in mind, I'd hope to see the balance of credit applied to LJ on the other end.

[Money Ball 0]

No way. Tomlinson has an injury? I didn't know about that, I'll still just project him close to 2,000 yards. I don't have him on my team anyways. Tomlinson may be one but I'll say two.

 

1. S. Alexander

2. Tomlinson

3. L. Johnson

[Portis26 0]

I think Portis can be grouped with the top 3 this year... anyone of the 4 can hit 2000 yds...

 

LJ - lost lineman though --

Alex - wont have 28 + TDs - but still a beast.

LT - may have 100 catches again with Rivers at QB

Portis - everything is in his favor - linemen, OC, offensive talent ...

 

**homer glasses off**

Portis will be the #1 fantasy back when the dust settles on the 06 season

[waterwolves 0]

NAn,

 

I appreciate your argument here, but this is a flawed way of looking at it. You're taking large chunks of data and plugging them into a vastly different context. With the parity in the league, this is often a stretch from year to year within a given team with the majority of the same players. Performing such an exercise across decades/conferences/teams is questionable IMO.

 

A more accurate baseline for Gibbs is what we saw last season. Factor in Saunders as you so choose, but bear in mind, I'd hope to see the balance of credit applied to LJ on the other end.

 

I see the reasoning behind your thoughts here but I think it will translate over to the Redskins because they too have a great O-line. I have a question for you though. Didn't Al Saunders do it some where else besides KC too. I don't know but I think before he was at KC he was some where else and they had a great offense too.

[xenophobe 1]

I see the reasoning behind your thoughts here but I think it will translate over to the Redskins because they too have a great O-line. I have a question for you though. Didn't Al Saunders do it some where else besides KC too. I don't know but I think before he was at KC he was some where else and they had a great offense too.

 

Yes, Saunders was in St. Louis before KC. I guess you believe the line will be better with Saunders. I don't see that as a variable in the equation.

[waterwolves 0]

Yes, Saunders was in St. Louis before KC.

 

So why don't you think it will translate and believe me I am asking just because i like to here other points of view.

[xenophobe 1]

So why don't you think it will translate and believe me I am asking just because i like to here other points of view.

 

I believe Saunders will be a factor. I just don't think you can reason it out in the manner that NAn did. That is far too presumptuous IMO.

[mobb_deep 917]

I think Portis can be grouped with the top 3 this year... anyone of the 4 can hit 2000 yds...

 

LJ - lost lineman though --

Alex - wont have 28 + TDs - but still a beast.

LT - may have 100 catches again with Rivers at QB

Portis - everything is in his favor - linemen, OC, offensive talent ...

 

**homer glasses off**

Portis will be the #1 fantasy back when the dust settles on the 06 season

 

Ugh. I have the #4 pick in the geek league and I was seriously considering taking Portis over Tiki (.5 PPR). That is ofcourse until you came into the thread. It's like de ja vu all over again....

 

[xenophobe 1]

Ugh. I have the #4 pick in the geek league and I was seriously considering taking Portis over Tiki (.5 PPR). That is ofcourse until you came into the thread. It's like de ja vu all over again....

 

 

I am a Giants fan and love Tiki. But if I had the # 4 pick, I would take Portis. Don't sweat it.

[waterwolves 0]

I mean I guess my arhuement is this. If you are saying it won't translate because moving a coach from one team to another doesn't mean the team will perform like the other team because they have different players. Sure I could agree with that but it is not like Al saunders went to the Lions. If you look at KC's line last year it was the best in football. The Skins most likey don't have the best line in football but they do have a starting 5 that could stack up against any other teams starting five. Second you are saying that Saunders doesn't have LJ anymore. Ok I agree he doesn't have LJ but he does have Portis and I feel they are comparable at the least (I personally feel Portis is better skill wise and if you don't think so I respect that but just ask yourself this. How would Portis have done in KC last year?). Then you look at QB. Is Green better then Brunell? I would have to say yes and he is a quite a bit better but Brunnell is Good. Then you take the WR which I would give the edge to Washington by a wide margin. TE is comparable if you look at last years #'s and don't take in to acount TG entire career. I really see a translation from KC to Washington being a real possiblity.

 

 

 

Thoughts.......

 

I also wanted to say I am a Skins homer too so take that into consideration. It sucks because I hate picking players from my team I feel I have a shady view and I try not too. Also want to say conversations like this is what make this great.

[mobb_deep 917]

I am a Giants fan and love Tiki. But if I had the # 4 pick, I would take Portis. Don't sweat it.

 

You really think Portis will catch enough balls this year to be worth it in a .5 ppr? I figure Tiki is good for 28-34 more catches then Portis (eqivalent of 3 or so TD's). I think they will end up with similar yardage but I don't know if Portis is good for 3 more TD's then Tiki.

 

I know Saunders likes to throw to the RB's so it's a tough one. Luckily I got a few more weeks to think about it

[waterwolves 0]

They say in the scimmage today against the Ravens he caught a few. It also says Brunell looks really good already.

 

Link

http://hailredskins.com/vbforum/showthread.php?t=36000

 

It is some where in there sorry

[NAn 39]

Due respect xeno, but just b/c you disagree, doesn't mean my take is 'flawed'.

 

My understanding of statistical data and trends is to take the data and look for consistencies or inconsistencies.

 

Finding 'large chunks of data', larger the better, usually will show you a more accurate picture.

 

One school of thought re: comparing different eras/conferences/teams is finding consistencies would be questionable, as you say.

 

Another would be that doesn't it say something about these coaches (and Gibbs in particular) that the statistical data has been consistent despite the different eras/confs/teams?

 

Gibbs and Saunders, have showed consistency throughout their careers in the areas I noted.

 

One could argue that this is a different team, different circumstances, different player in Portis.

 

I would reply that Gibbs/Saunders have built different teams under different circumstances with different players that fit their philosophy and scheme.

 

No surprise that Gibbs traded for Portis and that Saunders, after being part of resurrecting Holmes career and LJ's emergence, joins a team with a player like Portis and a HC like Gibbs.

 

You're not ready to assume 270 more yds and 9 more tds than last year.

 

And from previous post site LJ's ability to catch the ball as a rec as a plus from a football and ff perspective.

 

Well Saunders has said, and recent article confirms this where Portis has been told as much.

 

Portis had just 30recs last year (40 tops in career), projecting just 25 more (low end from rbs with Saunders as OC) at his ypc avg of 8.0 and you have 200 of those yds.

 

Another 15 carries over course of season, just one a game, and you have the other 70.

 

Personally not projecting 20tds (though again would not be surprised), I have 18tds, and considering he was on pace for 16 in 2nd half of season and addition of Saunders, don't see as that much of stretch.

 

I'll add, again, re: Saunders not being able to change the OL...that that same OL was good enough for 7th in the league in rushing.

 

And again, I feel that has much to do with Gibbs and his philosophy/scheme and could improve in Saunders scheme.

[xenophobe 1]

Due respect xeno, but just b/c you disagree, doesn't mean my take is 'flawed'.

 

Flawed was not a good choice in words. Your opinion is one that I have come to value.

[NAn 39]

Flawed was not a good choice in words. Your opinion is one that I have come to value.

 

No prob xeno...I wish more of the board debates were as civlized, where 2 parties can concentrate on talking football without name calling and other nonsense.

 

I value your takes/opinions as well.

 

This is just one of those cases where I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[xenophobe 1]

You really think Portis will catch enough balls this year to be worth it in a .5 ppr? I figure Tiki is good for 28-34 more catches then Portis (eqivalent of 3 or so TD's). I think they will end up with similar yardage but I don't know if Portis is good for 3 more TD's then Tiki.

 

I know Saunders likes to throw to the RB's so it's a tough one. Luckily I got a few more weeks to think about it

 

Don't underestimate the impact of Jacobs on Tiki. The Giants would like to reduce the workload he saw last year in order to keep him fresh, and, contrary to popular opinion, you should expect Jacobs to be even more of a factor than he was last year.

[xenophobe 1]

This is just one of those cases where I think we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

In all honestly, we may not be so diametrically opposed as it might seem. Much of what you assume in the impact of Saunders, I see in terms of "potential". However, I have a bit more of a wait and see approach, but with reservation (no need to go into it).

 

Just for curiosity sake, how have you adjusted for the loss of Saunders with respect to LJ?

[ElvisMcCoy 0]

I would like to make two statements.

I hate the Redskins more than any team in the NFL. Philly is a close second, but I truly dispise the Redskins so me picking Portis on any fantasy league simply irks my soul. I liken it to making a deal with the devil, but to us a statement already made into a topic here....it is what it is. I like Portis this year. Do I agree with Portis26. No sir I do not. Portis will again be in the top 5 but you say every year he will be the best back so we iwll all let you slide. But you keep on posting it and sooner or later the law of averages may allow you to get it right one of these years. LOL Just bustin your balls Portis26 so nothing personal.

 

Secondly I too wish all debates on this bored were as civil as this one. There have been some very good points made for and against taking Portis over LT. I am digin it!

[desertfire 4]

This is great guys, great arguments.

 

One more thought here. The very fact that we are debating another RB with Tomlinson at tells you that his value has dropped a bit. The last couple seasons, LT has been the unquestioned #1 back in the league. This season there's at least 3 RB's you could take ahead of LT.

 

To me, the loss of Brees is huge. I know, I know that when Brees sucked LT was still a stud, he was also 3 years younger and had about 900 less touches than he now has. In addition, I believe teams will just stack the box on him all season until Rivers proves he can hit the wideouts.

 

Marty is on his way out, I see a huge decline for the Chargers this season, as a matter of fact, I see them in last place in the AFC West.

 

I may be wrong guys, but I just feel Portis has alot less question marks and way more positives than LT does.

[ElvisMcCoy 0]

Ok guys after reading every post on here I am no closer to a decision about which way I should go with this from the #3 spot, but one suggestion keeps popping back up in my mind. I am confident that if I were in the number 4 spot this year I would get Portis. And since I don't mind not getting LT2 and getting Portis I am seriously considering offering the #3 spot to the #4 guy and trying to get an extra 4th round pick.

 

So If I give hime the #3 and I take #4 I'll get a little higher pick in the second and If I can talk him into giving me his 3rd or 4th round pick for my 4th or 5th round I should come out pretty good.

 

What are your thoughts?

[listen2me 23 1,547]

Wasn't not too long ago that the debate was Tiki or Portis at 4???....

[t.j 35]

The Skins most likey don't have the best line in football

 

Understatement of the year!

 

but they do have a starting 5 that could stack up against any other teams starting five.

 

No, they don't.

 

I also wanted to say I am a Skins homer too so take that into consideration.

 

Ya don't say?

[waterwolves 0]

Randy Thomas G Was best lineman on the jets team when we got him he has been a rock. 2003 he was considered the best FA OL out there. More of a technique guy then pure power but it is very effective for him.

John Jansen T He played with two broken thumbs last year but still played at a very high level. At right tackle I don't know who I would take over him?

Casey Rabach C He is not the best center out there but he can play C and G and he is as solid as they come.

Dereck Dockery G He is a huge G at 345 pounds. He is young and getting better every year. Can flat out manhandle people at times.

Chris Samuels T There are very few LT that are better then him. He dominates DE sometimes.

 

 

The down side is we only have one guy that gets in the Pro Bowl every year and that is Samuels but they only take 3 tackles so with Pace, W. Jones and Samuels there is no room for Jansen but he is a top 4 or 5 tackle in the NFC and at right tackle like I said before I don't know who I would take over him. I think Runyan for the Eagles playes right tackle and thats the only one I can think of that is as good. They only take three G's too but I thought Thomas could have gone last year but with Hutchinson, L. Allen and Wahle who are you going to take out they all had great years. I don't know Sea has a great line, KC has a great line, Carolina as a great line, Indy's line is underated but man who else do you put in front of the Skins line. We have what is regarded by many (not just me) the best Tackle tandem in the league and Randy Thomas would start on any team not named KC. Dockery is really good too and Rabach although the weakest link would start on a lot more teams then he wouldn't. He is better then average.

[steelers2101 7]

You have your reasons. May as well try trading down to the fourth pick and profit a little if you're going to do it.

 

exactly. He's a lock to fall to 4. If that's what you finally decide, just trade down.

 

Ok guys after reading every post on here I am no closer to a decision about which way I should go with this from the #3 spot, but one suggestion keeps popping back up in my mind. I am confident that if I were in the number 4 spot this year I would get Portis. And since I don't mind not getting LT2 and getting Portis I am seriously considering offering the #3 spot to the #4 guy and trying to get an extra 4th round pick.

 

So If I give hime the #3 and I take #4 I'll get a little higher pick in the second and If I can talk him into giving me his 3rd or 4th round pick for my 4th or 5th round I should come out pretty good.

 

What are your thoughts?

 

get whatever you can.