Why T Bell will never start for Denver

[miket7 0]

For the last many years, there have been an uncountable number of Denver running back threads (and for good reason).

Since the trade of Clinton Portis three seasons ago, most of these have involved the man known as Tatum Bell.

 

He was drafted in the second round of the 2004 draft and since that point, everyone has wondered when he will take the starting job.

I believe the answer is never.

And I think it is time for TBell owners to finally face the TRUTH:

 

- It doesn't matter if he is the most talented back on the roster (which he probably is)

- It doesn't matter what round he was drafted in or how much money he is making

- It doesn't matter how much the other running backs on the Broncos suck

 

He is just NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER going to start for them!!!!

 

To me, it has become very clear over the last few seasons that Mike Shanahan would prefer to pound the ball away with a bigger and stronger back (Droughns, MAnderson, Dayne) and then let Bell come in against a worn down defense and break a big run.

 

VERY IMPORTANT:::::

Mike Shanahan does not care about fantasy football!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He will do what he thinks will best help the Broncos win football games.

He is convinced that Tatum Bell is best used as a change of pace back, not an every down runner.

 

That is all.

[Savage Beast 1]

VERY IMPORTANT:::::

 

Mike Shanahan does not care about fantasy football!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

So that's why Mike selected Randy Moss with his 1st round fantasy selection in our big money league this season.

[shasha 0]

I think that it all comes down to one thing, pass protection and blitz pickup. Tatum is the best runner on the team, added about 15 lbs in the offseason so that he could hit the hole with some authority, but if his blocking skills aren't up to snuff than he could be Barry Sanders Jr and Shanny will never start him. I will say that I haven't seen Mike Bell run yet so he may be the best RB on the team, but I do know that Tatum hasn't played in a game yet with more than 10 carries and not produced decent numbers. Up that to 20-25 range and he could be sick.

 

If a guy scores once every 10 carries you have to start him unless his other skills endanger the rest of the team. I think that is the problem here.

 

For the record, Shannahan does like to play mind games with his players and loves to provide misginformation to the media. He did the same thing to Portis in order to motivate him and after 3 weeks he got the starting position. But the thing about Portis is that even though he wasn't huge, the guy will block his ass off. Even the play last night where he got hurt, he had actually picked up a linebacker, stonewalled him, stood him up and even popped his helmet off, before running downfield and tried to kill the DB on the tackle.

 

You have to admit that he did make a pretty good tackle, too bad he got hurt.

[mggoilers 0]

I think you helped me change my opinion on Bell. I agree with most everything you posted, but he's still very cheap and very talented...he'll get his shot again this year.

[feartheturtle 0]

You have to admit that he did make a pretty good tackle, too bad he got hurt.

 

 

 

It was an arm tackle.

[lambert58 56]

I think that it all comes down to one thing, pass protection and blitz pickup. Tatum is the best runner on the team, added about 15 lbs in the offseason so that he could hit the hole with some authority, but if his blocking skills aren't up to snuff than he could be Barry Sanders Jr and Shanny will never start him.

 

On Sirius NFL radio Shanny mentioned several times that Tatum Bell was the best back at picking up the blitz and that Tatum had no problem sticking his face into a blitzing linebacker. He also stated that Mike Bell needs to hold on to the ball (before the 1st preseason game) and needed to learn his blocking assignments. He hardly mentioned Ron Dayne at all.

[Ilov80s 0]

Bell is an interesting guy. AntSports has his ADP at 4.10 and the 25th back to go. He has a standard deviation of 8. So he should be expected to go anywhere from early 4th to mid 5th. The earliest he has been taken is 3.09 and the latest is 6.11

 

Here is my breakdown of Bell's possibilities:

 

Baseline: A repeat of his 05 numbers: 921 rushing 8 TDs 100 receiving

Tatum finished as the 22nd best back in 05. He did so with only 173 carries (2nd least of all top 25 backs).

 

Moderate Increased Workload 1054 rushing 9 TDs 100 receiving

Denver's top back from 05 is gone. They are left with an undrafted rookie, Ron Dayne, and Tatum. It just makes logical sense that Tatum gets more carries. Maybe he doesn't become the "starter" and maybe he is never a 300 carry guy. If Bell gets just a 15% workload (which seems reasonable given the circumstances) then he is in line for: 1054 rushing 9 TDs. Factor in 100 yards receiving and Bell would score 169 FF points. That would of been good enough to make him the 15th best back in 05.

 

Feature back 1344 rushing 13 TDs 200 receiving

There is always the possibility that Shanny is playing games and that Tatum steps it up and earns the job as the starter. It may be slim, but it is a possibility. An NFL featured back would likely get baseline of about 280 carries. We will stay conservative and assume that Bell can't keep up his career 5.3 ypc. Lets slash it by a half yard and make it 4.8 That would average out to 1344 yards 13 TDs and 200 yards receiving. That gives him 232 FF points- good enough for 7th last season.

 

Is this worth a late 4th round or early 5th round pick?

 

One other tidbit about Bell's gamebreaking ability that I find somewhat interesting:

 

In 2004, Bell averaged 5.3 with 75 carries. In 2005, Bell averaged 5.3 with 173 carries.

In 2004, Bell scored a touchdown on 4% of his carries. In 2005, Bell scored on 4.6% of his carries.

This shows a real consistency about his gamebreaking style.

 

The only thing that could throw a wrench into this is if Mike Bell turns out to be a bonafide stud.

[lambert58 56]

Bell is an interesting guy. AntSports has his ADP at 4.10 and the 25th back to go. He has a standard deviation of 8. So he should be expected to go anywhere from early 4th to mid 5th. The earliest he has been taken is 3.09 and the latest is 6.11

 

Here is my breakdown of Bell's possibilities:

 

Baseline: A repeat of his 05 numbers: 921 rushing 8 TDs 100 receiving

Tatum finished as the 22nd best back in 05. He did so with only 173 carries (2nd least of all top 25 backs).

 

Moderate Increased Workload 1054 rushing 9 TDs 100 receiving

Denver's top back from 05 is gone. They are left with an undrafted rookie, Ron Dayne, and Tatum. It just makes logical sense that Tatum gets more carries. Maybe he doesn't become the "starter" and maybe he is never a 300 carry guy. If Bell gets just a 15% workload (which seems reasonable given the circumstances) then he is in line for: 1054 rushing 9 TDs. Factor in 100 yards receiving and Bell would score 169 FF points. That would of been good enough to make him the 15th best back in 05.

 

Feature back 1344 rushing 13 TDs 200 receiving

There is always the possibility that Shanny is playing games and that Tatum steps it up and earns the job as the starter. It may be slim, but it is a possibility. An NFL featured back would likely get baseline of about 280 carries. We will stay conservative and assume that Bell can't keep up his career 5.3 ypc. Lets slash it by a half yard and make it 4.8 That would average out to 1344 yards 13 TDs and 200 yards receiving. That gives him 232 FF points- good enough for 7th last season.

 

Is this worth a late 4th round or early 5th round pick?

 

One other tidbit about Bell's gamebreaking ability that I find somewhat interesting:

 

In 2004, Bell averaged 5.3 with 75 carries. In 2005, Bell averaged 5.3 with 173 carries.

In 2004, Bell scored a touchdown on 4% of his carries. In 2005, Bell scored on 4.6% of his carries.

This shows a real consistency about his gamebreaking style.

 

The only thing that could throw a wrench into this is if Mike Bell turns out to be a bonafide stud.

 

 

 

Great analysis. The one thing that I want to point out is that NO one is saying Tatum Bell should be a fantasy teams number 1 back. But Bell makes a perfect number two back for the price (auction) and draft position that he can be acquired.

[Ilov80s 0]

Great analysis. The one thing that I want to point out is that NO one is saying Tatum Bell should be a fantasy teams number 1 back. But Bell makes a perfect number two back for the price (auction) and draft position that he can be acquired.

 

Exactly. He is being drafted in the area of late 2nd and early 3rd RBs. He has the potential (as proven by actual and consistent NFL stats) to not only live up to that position, but significantly exceed it. Unlike so many of the untested players going in this area (Addai, Benson, etc.) we know Bell has the talent. He is simply in need of more oppurtunities. If replacing the teams #1 back with an undrafted rookie doesn't provide that oppurtunity, then what will?

[texasmouth 1]

So that's why Mike selected Randy Moss with his 1st round fantasy selection in our big money league this season.

Hopefully you arent letting hi control the money, I would never trust the rat.

[mikeso 0]

For the last many years, there have been an uncountable number of Denver running back threads (and for good reason).

Since the trade of Clinton Portis three seasons ago, most of these have involved the man known as Tatum Bell.

 

He was drafted in the second round of the 2004 draft and since that point, everyone has wondered when he will take the starting job.

I believe the answer is never.

And I think it is time for TBell owners to finally face the TRUTH:

 

- It doesn't matter if he is the most talented back on the roster (which he probably is)

- It doesn't matter what round he was drafted in or how much money he is making

- It doesn't matter how much the other running backs on the Broncos suck

 

He is just NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER going to start for them!!!!

 

To me, it has become very clear over the last few seasons that Mike Shanahan would prefer to pound the ball away with a bigger and stronger back (Droughns, MAnderson, Dayne) and then let Bell come in against a worn down defense and break a big run.

 

VERY IMPORTANT:::::

Mike Shanahan does not care about fantasy football!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He will do what he thinks will best help the Broncos win football games.

He is convinced that Tatum Bell is best used as a change of pace back, not an every down runner.

 

That is all.

 

and u are???????

 

u know all this cuz?????

 

STFU and stop acting like u know something...

[texasmouth 1]

and u are???????

 

u know all this cuz?????

 

STFU and stop acting like u know something...

Opinions are like......well, you know the rest........

[orcish miscreant 0]

CAT G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

ATTEMPTS 1-THROUGH-10 0 128 789 6.2 68 6 35

ATTEMPTS 11-THROUGH-20 0 45 132 2.9 19 2 6

ATTEMPTS 21-THROUGH-30 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0

ATTEMPTS 31+ 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0

 

Tatum Bell won't start for the Denver Broncos. End of story.

[Bananarama 0]

and u are???????

 

u know all this cuz?????

 

STFU and stop acting like u know something...

[delusional247 0]

Bell is an interesting guy. AntSports has his ADP at 4.10 and the 25th back to go. He has a standard deviation of 8. So he should be expected to go anywhere from early 4th to mid 5th. The earliest he has been taken is 3.09 and the latest is 6.11

 

Here is my breakdown of Bell's possibilities:

 

Baseline: A repeat of his 05 numbers: 921 rushing 8 TDs 100 receiving

Tatum finished as the 22nd best back in 05. He did so with only 173 carries (2nd least of all top 25 backs).

 

Moderate Increased Workload 1054 rushing 9 TDs 100 receiving

Denver's top back from 05 is gone. They are left with an undrafted rookie, Ron Dayne, and Tatum. It just makes logical sense that Tatum gets more carries. Maybe he doesn't become the "starter" and maybe he is never a 300 carry guy. If Bell gets just a 15% workload (which seems reasonable given the circumstances) then he is in line for: 1054 rushing 9 TDs. Factor in 100 yards receiving and Bell would score 169 FF points. That would of been good enough to make him the 15th best back in 05.

 

Feature back 1344 rushing 13 TDs 200 receiving

There is always the possibility that Shanny is playing games and that Tatum steps it up and earns the job as the starter. It may be slim, but it is a possibility. An NFL featured back would likely get baseline of about 280 carries. We will stay conservative and assume that Bell can't keep up his career 5.3 ypc. Lets slash it by a half yard and make it 4.8 That would average out to 1344 yards 13 TDs and 200 yards receiving. That gives him 232 FF points- good enough for 7th last season.

 

Is this worth a late 4th round or early 5th round pick?

 

One other tidbit about Bell's gamebreaking ability that I find somewhat interesting:

 

In 2004, Bell averaged 5.3 with 75 carries. In 2005, Bell averaged 5.3 with 173 carries.

In 2004, Bell scored a touchdown on 4% of his carries. In 2005, Bell scored on 4.6% of his carries.

This shows a real consistency about his gamebreaking style.

 

The only thing that could throw a wrench into this is if Mike Bell turns out to be a bonafide stud.

 

 

You just made me feel better bout my draft

 

<-- TBell @ 8.12 w Fred Taylor as my #2 lol

[Cuse9 128]

and u are???????

 

u know all this cuz?????

 

STFU and stop acting like u know something...

 

Glad to see you had good insight on the topic?!

 

I don't see why Tatum don't get the opportunity. The ypc getting less as the game goes on makes some sense to why he wouldn't be starting, but that goes against the other theory that he will be thrown in after the defense is worn down to break long runs.

 

I dunno....I wouldn't mind seeing Dayne and Mike Bell miss the bus one game and Shanny had to give Tatum 25 carries in a game...just so we could see what he could do.

[wizbang 10]

For the last many years, there have been an uncountable number of Denver running back threads (and for good reason).

Since the trade of Clinton Portis three seasons ago, most of these have involved the man known as Tatum Bell.

 

He was drafted in the second round of the 2004 draft and since that point, everyone has wondered when he will take the starting job.

I believe the answer is never.

And I think it is time for TBell owners to finally face the TRUTH:

 

- It doesn't matter if he is the most talented back on the roster (which he probably is)

- It doesn't matter what round he was drafted in or how much money he is making

- It doesn't matter how much the other running backs on the Broncos suck

 

He is just NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER going to start for them!!!!

 

To me, it has become very clear over the last few seasons that Mike Shanahan would prefer to pound the ball away with a bigger and stronger back (Droughns, MAnderson, Dayne) and then let Bell come in against a worn down defense and break a big run.

 

VERY IMPORTANT:::::

Mike Shanahan does not care about fantasy football!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He will do what he thinks will best help the Broncos win football games.

He is convinced that Tatum Bell is best used as a change of pace back, not an every down runner.

 

That is all.

 

Well put and I agree. IMO their success last season cemented this is Shanny's mind. The only thing that can change that is injury to other RBs.

[Ilov80s 0]

CAT G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

ATTEMPTS 1-THROUGH-10 0 128 789 6.2 68 6 35

ATTEMPTS 11-THROUGH-20 0 45 132 2.9 19 2 6

ATTEMPTS 21-THROUGH-30 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0

ATTEMPTS 31+ 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0

 

Tatum Bell won't start for the Denver Broncos. End of story.

 

Thats a much better reason for why TBell won't ever start then the original poster had. Still, Bell has value with only 10-15 carries a game- that was evident by his numbers last year. I 100% agree that Bell starting is an unlikely scenario, but him getting a slight increase in workload is very likely. I would be shocked if Shanahan did not find a way to get him more carries this year. The more and more I look at it, the more I think my predication of 1054 and 9 is right on.

[lambert58 56]

CAT G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

ATTEMPTS 1-THROUGH-10 0 128 789 6.2 68 6 35

ATTEMPTS 11-THROUGH-20 0 45 132 2.9 19 2 6

ATTEMPTS 21-THROUGH-30 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0

ATTEMPTS 31+ 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0

 

Tatum Bell won't start for the Denver Broncos. End of story.

 

 

Aren't those stats better than a guy who hasn't played a down in the NFL (mike Bell) and a guy who hasn't produced in over 5 years (Ron Dayne)?

 

 

If Tatum Bell is the best back on the team then he needs to start. For accuracy sake show the same stats on Ron Dayne.

[orcish miscreant 0]

Aren't those stats better than a guy who hasn't played a down in the NFL (mike Bell) and a guy who hasn't produced in over 5 years (Ron Dayne)?

 

No. 2.9 YPC is anemic.

 

And if you are talking about yards and TDs, you are a funny guy. By your assumption, Lee Suggs is better than Reggie Bush, as he has more yards and TDs

 

If Tatum Bell is the best back on the team then he needs to start. For accuracy sake show the same stats on Ron Dayne.

 

Tatum Bell is the best RB on the Broncos...when under 11 carries. Because of Bell's running style, why would Denver start Tatum Bell? Why not wear out the defense early, then bring in Bell late in the game to do his damage on 10 carries against a weary defense?

 

Ron Dayne 2005 stats:

 

CAT G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

ATTEMPTS 1-THROUGH-10 0 50 244 4.9 55 1 12

ATTEMPTS 11-THROUGH-20 0 3 26 8.7 16 0 2

ATTEMPTS 21-THROUGH-30 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0

ATTEMPTS 31+ 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0

 

The sample is too small to draw conclusions from, but I hate to deny you the opportunity to see it.

[football_scooter 0]

No. 2.9 YPC is anemic.

 

And if you are talking about yards and TDs, you are a funny guy. By your assumption, Lee Suggs is better than Reggie Bush, as he has more yards and TDs

Tatum Bell is the best RB on the Broncos...when under 11 carries. Because of Bell's running style, why would Denver start Tatum Bell? Why not wear out the defense early, then bring in Bell late in the game to do his damage on 10 carries against a weary defense?

 

Ron Dayne 2005 stats:

 

CAT G Att Yds Avg Lg TD 1st

ATTEMPTS 1-THROUGH-10 0 50 244 4.9 55 1 12

ATTEMPTS 11-THROUGH-20 0 3 26 8.7 16 0 2

ATTEMPTS 21-THROUGH-30 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0

ATTEMPTS 31+ 0 0 0 --- 0 0 0

 

The sample is too small to draw conclusions from, but I hate to deny you the opportunity to see it.

 

Excellent work.

 

FWIW, I just took Bell at 6.08 in a 12 team redraft.

 

Why?

 

Because for a 6th round RB3, he had the most upside of anyone on the board at any position. And that's not with the fancy that he'll be the starter: that is with the presumption that Shanny will use him exactly as he did in 2005, as you say - why wouldn't he?

 

And that's 1000+ total yards and 8 TDs.

 

I'll take that from my RB3 any day.

 

For this reason, and not some fantasy that Bell will be tabbed the starter, I think he's a great value pick this year.

[bigtuna 0]

as a Ron Dayne owner i can say....Tatum Bell is the best runner on the team BY FAR.

 

I have no idea what is going on. In the end, usually the cream rises to the top. I suspect it will again.

[Rye & Leaf 0]

Dont sleep on tatum bell cause if he does start and plays all 16 games, he is a top 10 rb. I dont think that can be said of denver's other 3 rbs.