****Official College Wagering Thread****

[GiantsRule 0]

Need a quick fix to erase the pain of Monday night. After a near flawless Saturday and a great Sunday, got burned on two prop plays:

 

Brees over 21 completions (finished with 20)

 

Jenkins to have a longer reception than Horn (lost 19 to 15)

 

Special Tuesday night game: Southern Miss (-5) vs. Central Florida. Thinking of taking the C. Fla ML for double odds, but I'm not clicking a single "submit" button until Ditka, Yer Mom, and philly chime in. Then I'm taking the consensus play.

 

Hopefully, you'll have something for me in the morning before I leave for work.

[Yer mom 2]

Dont wanna leave ya hangin G-men, but dont have much to share other than I would think So Miss would really lay it to CF, better program, better team. What bugs me is the line is -5 and I figure it to be at least 7-8. I guess home game on national TV factor maybe helping to come up with that line. I hate road favorites at 6.5 or less, too often the home team covers or wins outright so you may have something here. I absolutely wont touch this until halftime, and something will have to jump out for me to make a play!!!

 

 

Good luck bro

[phillybear 366]

(We have two threads going. You guys figure it out. I am reposting this.)

 

Overall College YTD: 72-54-2; +37.07 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 29-15; +35.37 units

 

Tuesday

 

Southern Mississippi (-5) for 3 units PUSH

 

So Miss is seeing 90% of the action. This line might reach -7 by game time.

 

At first glance, you got a home dog, and you think about taking Central Florida. They went to a bowl game last year, return veteran QB Moffet, and look to keep the momentum going. Not so fast, my friend. So Miss is a much, much more impressive team so far this year.

 

So Miss is averaging 395 yards of total offense per game, to Central Florida averaging 272.

So Miss is giving up 295 yards defensively, to Central Florida giving up 464.

That is a disparity of almost 300 yards per game.

 

So Miss lost to Florida to open the year 34-7, but the game was closer than the final score, with 2 turnovers by So Miss inside the 10 yard line of Florida, and got outgained by less than 100 yards. Then So Miss smashed SE Louisiana 45-0, and beatup a decent North Carolin St team 37-13. While So Miss is rebuilding at some skill position positions, they returned 4 of 5 starting offensive linemen. Which is huge, in a game that is expected to have rain. So Miss averages 183 passing per game, just like Central Florida. However they excel at running the ball, rushing for 212 game, with their freshman RB Fletcher going for 379 yards and 5 TDs. So Miss is running for 5.3 ypr vs teams that allow 3.5 ypr.

 

Central Florida lost a couple of key defensive linemen to graduation, but a bigger problem is pass defense, giving up 336 yards passing per game. Central Flor beat Villanova 35-16 in their first game, but got outgained by over 40 yards. They got throttled by Florida 42-0; this score is deceiving close as Florida outgained Central Flor 637 to 153, and Florida turned it over 4 more times than Centr Flor. Then Central Florida lost at home to South Florida, giving up 333 yards passing to a freshman QB Grothe of So Flor, and needed a special teams TD to lose by only 24-17. Again, deceiving score.

 

OK, it is clear So Miss is a much better team technically. How about situationally? Is this a must win for Central Florida? Probably. But you have to remember the recent past. Central Florida lost a million games in a row over a number of years, and was down there with the Temples and Buffalos of the world, at the bottom dregs of college football, until a magical last season, where everything went right. Isn't it likely that the players are concerned that they reverting back to their losing ways. They have to have very low confidence at this point. So Miss could also theoretically suffer a let down from their big blow out win over NC St.

 

However, with all that momentum of Central Florida last year, with the down year that So Miss had, So Miss smashed Central Florida 52-21 last year, in a game they led 45-7 at the half. So Miss had a +4 turnover advantage, so this game will be closer. But I just can't make a case for Central Florida keeping from losing by less than double digits.

 

Lay the lumber. Good luck to all.

[GiantsRule 0]

philly: awesome writeup. From the sounds of it, the over might be a solid play as well. Did you say something about rain tonight, or a previous game?

[phillybear 366]

philly: awesome writeup. From the sounds of it, the over might be a solid play as well. Did you say something about rain tonight, or a previous game?

 

Expected rain tonight. But that can change. Weather can be fickle.

 

I haven't done a college over/under yet this year. No opinion. Good luck.

[Yer mom 2]

Well, looks like Philly and I agree about the line. Its now -6 -115 at Sportsbook.com. Perhaps they had the line a bit low to begin with and its adjusting correctly as we inch toward tonights game, dunno. I am leaning towards wagering as opposed to not now because of this.

 

So Miss -6 1 Benji

 

Good luck!!

[GiantsRule 0]

Just waiting for Ditka to chime in, but sounds like I'll be laying the lumber for So. Miss.

[new-guru 0]

CollegeGame Spread Money Line Total Points

 

Tue 9/26 07:30PM

301 South Mississippi -6 -110 -240 O 46½ -110

302 Central Florida +6 -110 +200 U 46½ -110

 

Thu 9/28 07:00PM

303 BYU +5½ -110

304 TCU -5½ -110

 

Thu 9/28 07:30PM

305 Auburn -14 -110

306 South Carolina +14 -110

 

Fri 9/29 08:00PM

307 Rutgers -4 -110

308 South Florida +4 -110

 

Sat 9/30 03:30PM

309 Northwestern +18 -110

310 Penn State -18 -110

 

Sat 9/30 07:00PM

311 Kansas +21½ -110

312 Nebraska -21½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 12:00PM

313 Wisconsin -10½ -110

314 Indiana +10½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 12:00PM

315 Illinois +26 -110

316 Michigan State -26 -110

 

Sat 9/30 06:00PM

317 Houston U +16 -110

318 Miami Florida -16 -110

 

Sat 9/30 12:00PM

319 Toledo +14 -110

320 Pittsburgh U -14 -110

 

Sat 9/30 12:00PM

321 Virginia -5½ -110

322 Duke +5½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 01:30PM

323 Wyoming +5 -110

324 Syracuse -5 -110

 

Sat 9/30 12:00PM

325 Louisiana Tech +34 -110

326 Clemson -34 -110

 

Sat 9/30 12:00PM

327 Navy +2½ -110

328 Connecticut -2½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 03:30PM

329 Rice +11 -110

330 Army -11 -110

 

Sat 9/30 02:00PM

331 Bowling Green +4½ -110

332 Ohio -4½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 02:00PM

333 New Mexico +12½ -110

334 Air Force -12½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 02:30PM

335 Purdue +14 -110

336 Notre Dame -14 -110

 

Sat 9/30 07:00PM

337 Kansas State +1½ -110

338 Baylor -1½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 03:00PM

339 Idaho -2½ -110

340 Utah State +2½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 03:00PM

341 Boise State +4 -110

342 Utah -4 -110

 

Sat 9/30 07:00PM

343 USC -17 -110

344 Washington State +17 -110

 

Sat 9/30 04:00PM

345 California -8½ -110

346 Oregon State +8½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 10:15PM

347 Stanford +23 -110

348 UCLA -23 -110

 

Sat 9/30 03:30PM

349 Alabama +13½ -110

350 Florida -13½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 03:30PM

351 Miami Ohio +9 -110

352 Cincinnati U -9 -110

 

Sat 9/30 06:00PM

353 Central Michigan +6½ -110

354 Kentucky -6½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 06:00PM

355 San Diego State -2½ -110

356 San Jose State +2½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 06:30PM

357 No Illinois -6½ -110

358 Ball State +6½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 12:30PM

359 Mississippi State +32 -110

360 LSU -32 -110

 

Sat 9/30 03:30PM

361 Texas Tech +1½ -110

362 Texas A&M -1½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 09:00PM

363 Georgia -17 -110

364 Mississippi +17 -110

 

Sat 9/30 12:30PM

365 Colorado +14½ -110

366 Missouri -14½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 07:00PM

367 Temple +34 -110

368 Vanderbilt -34 -110

 

Sat 9/30 03:30PM

369 Georgia Tech +9 -110

370 Virginia Tech -9 -110

 

Sat 9/30 07:30PM

371 Akron -3 -110

372 Kent +3 -110

 

Sat 9/30 08:00PM

373 Ohio State -6½ -110

374 Iowa +6½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 08:00PM

375 Michigan -9½ -110

376 Minnesota U +9½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 12:00PM

377 Tennessee U -13½ -110

378 Memphis +13½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 09:00PM

379 SMU -3 -110

380 Tulane +3 -110

 

Sat 9/30 09:00PM

381 New Mexico State +16½ -110

382 UTEP -16½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 10:00PM

383 Colorado State +12½ -110

384 Fresno State -12½ -110

 

Sat 9/30 10:00PM

385 Nevada -4 -110

386 UNLV +4 -110

 

Sat 9/30 03:30PM

389 Oregon -1 -110

390 Arizona State +1 -110

 

 

 

 

Here are the lines guys!

 

Going strong with southern Miss. 4 units

 

half time line -3

 

the game line opened up at 4.5 on my line and is now at 6 as you can see

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

I am going with Southern Miss -5 for a single unit.

 

I am also going to parlay the St. Louis Cardinals with Southern Miss ML for a single unit.

 

The Redbirds need to stop the bleeding with Carpenter.

 

I had the Falcons last night and the under so I had a break even night.

[American Chewy 98]

Overall

45-35-3 +10.045 units

2+ plays 10-9 +3.08 units

 

S. Miss -5@-120 2 units PUSH

 

might upgrade to a 2 unit before kickoff, although since i did had to buy a point to get it to where philly had it i might not. Feel pretty good about it anyway.

 

 

some other lines that i already put in for were(i tend to look mostly at big 12 games early, thats what i know best, unless some national game really stands out):

 

Ohio St -6

iowa got drilled last year in this game and only one team improved since then. plus, i dont think drew tate is really healthy, he can't throw deep. This line seems like it should be 14 or more (its moved to 7 now), the fact that its so low scares me a little bit though.

 

Kansas +21.5

ku won by 25 last year and only lost by 6@lincoln 2 years ago and is a 3 TD dog? kansas hasn't been impressive but i think they learned their lesson in the toledo game that they can be just fine winning conservatively, like they did against S. Florida. If they stick to that gameplan i dont see how they can get blown out, plus their def is improving each week. nebraska looked like world beaters against overmatched opponents, but pulled it all back against usc. i think they do the same here and win by like 10-14 pts.

 

Kansas St. ML +125 .5 unit

i think this is down to +110, i wish i would have put more on it early(probably will make it a full unit if it moves back up at all). if their was ever an easier big 12 road game to start with for the new staff at ksu, this is it. i think kstate would be a 7-10 pt fav on a neutral field. baylors new spread offense has not clicked yet and kstate showed last week that they can certainly slow down even the best offense in the nation. this game will be ugly, especially if kstates offense continues to play poorly, but either way i just see baylor finding a way to lose this game like they have all season.

 

Colorado +14.5

lots of money coming in on mizzou has moved this line a point or so. mizzou has looked great going 4-0 and cracking the top 25 but in their last 2 games they haven't really put teams away because they keep turning the ball over. Colorado is the best 0-4 team in the nation for sure, and should have beat georgia. their def can play with anyone and i think they keep them in this game just enough to cover.

 

edit for upgrade of S. Miss pick

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

got S miss -6 tonight...

gl to all

[mark32esu 18]

Hey i always wondered, exactly how much is 1 unit? Me & my friends have always called in our bets as timers. Each time is $5, so if you wanted to call in a $50 bet, you would call it in as a 10 timer. Just curious.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

Hey i always wondered, exactly how much is 1 unit? Me & my friends have always called in our bets as timers. Each time is $5, so if you wanted to call in a $50 bet, you would call it in as a 10 timer. Just curious.

Unit = Average Bet

 

I normally will wager $25 on NCAA so that would equal a one unit bet for me. Philly might do an average wager of $500 per and that would equal his unit. Either way if you can look at our stats by the number of units we are up or down.

 

That being said I don't have the patience to track my units or overall record. I prefer to say I am up over a grand on the season. Because I truly am UP over a GRAND!

[American Chewy 98]

Hey i always wondered, exactly how much is 1 unit? Me & my friends have always called in our bets as timers. Each time is $5, so if you wanted to call in a $50 bet, you would call it in as a 10 timer. Just curious.

 

it should typically be 1-2% of your gambling bankroll

[phillybear 366]

Painful game to watch, but So Miss finally got the passing offense going, and go up 7-0. Maybe that will give the RB Fletcher some more room to run. The play calling had been brutally conservative by SM so far.

 

Huge 23 yard FG miss by Central Florida.

 

Need a defensive stop, and add a FG, for an optimal half time scenario for So Miss.

[GiantsRule 0]

Painful game to watch, but So Miss finally got the passing offense going, and go up 7-0. Maybe that will give the RB Fletcher some more room to run. The play calling had been brutally conservative by SM so far.

 

Huge 23 yard FG miss by Central Florida.

 

Need a defensive stop, and add a FG, for an optimal half time scenario for So Miss.

 

Dude, don't tell me you're going to throw down at halftime of a Tuesday football game.

 

I've been looking at live betting to find a low number to hit the over (missed 24.5 just before the TD)

[phillybear 366]

Dude, don't tell me you're going to throw down at halftime of a Tuesday football game.

 

I've been looking at live betting to find a low number to hit the over (missed 24.5 just before the TD)

 

Nope. I'll pass on halftime. I have too much riding on the game bet. I think I'm doing too many 1st H and 2nd H bets this year, although with decent results for the year.

 

After the botched punt, I am hoping for some points here.

 

 

I thought they got a bad spot on the 3rd down run, but I'll take the 3 pts.

[Yer mom 2]

Good LORD. Watching this game is like masturbating with a cheese grader. Slightly amusing, mostly painful.

 

I see points coming here in the 2nd half, goin over 21 for a Benji.

 

Now get out there and be somebody!

[phillybear 366]

Unit = Average Bet

 

I normally will wager $25 on NCAA so that would equal a one unit bet for me. Philly might do an average wager of $500 per and that would equal his unit. Either way if you can look at our stats by the number of units we are up or down.

 

Just the way Hurricane Ditka described it.

 

I like the anonymous unit system, rather than posting money. Everyone has a different bankroll, and a different way of betting. Wins and losses, and net units, are more important than cash thrown around.

 

For me, 1 unit = 100 bucks. But I'll keep posting units.

[GiantsRule 0]

Wussed out at the beginning of this drive because I got a bad number

 

So. Miss -6 (-110)

 

So. Fla +11.5 (+175)

 

Here's hoping they punch it in here but botch the XP! (so much for that)

 

Doubt it will happen, but a FG here will give the boys a win and me a crucial middle. Make it so So. Miss!

[EyeOfDaTiga 0]

THIS GAME IS FIXED

[GiantsRule 0]

THIS GAME IS FIXED

 

I don't doubt it. I really regret not getting in this morning at -5. Oh well. At least the big odds put me ahead for the night.

[Yer mom 2]

And thus....why I almost never take road favorites of 6.5 or less Douches. 2nd half total made it a puch for the day, ho hum.

[phillybear 366]

Discouraging Push for me. A loss for anyone that waited. I feel bad if I steered anyone in the wrong direction for this game. So Miss played badly. Nothing else I can say. I was very discouraged by So Miss effort tonight. Fock.

 

I don't like any of the weekday games as much as I liked this one. I guess it will be a slow crawl until Saturday.

[EyeOfDaTiga 0]

So we go for 2 when we're up 2 scores. We let UCF drive down the field to score easily, then when its crunch time we sack Moffit 3 straight times. I'm tired of picking winners and have this crap happen. I was on this game just like everyone else and i was very confident on the under, too bad a piss ant coach had to screw it up!

 

I called this fix right after we missed the two, and was dead on!!!!

[Yer mom 2]

I hear ya, good riddance Tuesday night football! (But please be back next week) LOOOVE football season, Christmas eve 4-5 nights a week

[Tarheel Boy 0]

So we go for 2 when we're up 2 scores.

 

I took Southern Miss as well at -5.5, but I don't know why you're questioning the decision to go for 2. They were up 12 with 10 minutes to go in the game. Being up by 13 doesn't put them in any better shape than 12. You go for 2 to go up by 14 that late in the game. I don't see where there's any question in the decision. What I do question is the crapass attempt of how they went for two. That was one of the worst attempts I've ever seen.

[GiantsRule 0]

I hear ya, good riddance Tuesday night football! (But please be back next week) LOOOVE football season, Christmas eve 4-5 nights a week

 

If I wasn't sure I was a degenerate, live in-game betting pretty much sealed the deal.

 

Cost me on Sunday night (took Pats +9.5 as they were driving for what should have been a FG) but avoided a sure loss and ended up winning almost as much as I put on the game.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

Early in the week...

 

Just throwing out some leans i like.

 

I have a lot of dogs barking this week...

 

(Already took Ohio St -6.5 for 2 UNITS)

 

Welcome all comments

 

Thurs

AUBURN UND 37

 

Friday

Rutgers -4

 

Sat

 

Navy +3

Wyoming +5

Boise St +4

Air Force -12.5

Wash St +17

Oregon St. +9

Alabama +13

Ohio -4

Texas Tech +2

Ga Tech +9 AND UNDER 37.5

Kent +2.5

Tulane +3

Fresno -13

Ariz St +1.5

Nev -4

[EyeOfDaTiga 0]

I took Southern Miss as well at -5.5, but I don't know why you're questioning the decision to go for 2. They were up 12 with 10 minutes to go in the game. Being up by 13 doesn't put them in any better shape than 12. You go for 2 to go up by 14 that late in the game. I don't see where there's any question in the decision. What I do question is the crapass attempt of how they went for two. That was one of the worst attempts I've ever seen.

 

 

I see your point but UCF didn't move the ball ALL NIGHT, that is until that last drive where they drove right down and scored. Nex possesion UCF turns it over on downs including 3 sacks. That So.Miss D sure did tightin up quick!

[Tarheel Boy 0]

I see your point but UCF didn't move the ball ALL NIGHT, that is until that last drive where they drove right down and scored. Nex possesion UCF turns it over on downs including 3 sacks. That So.Miss D sure did tightin up quick!

 

The defense was horrible on the TD. Letting a dude run 15 yards on 3-10 was a joke. I think it So Miss would have stopped them at that point then UCF would have been forced to punt. Oh well, I'm p!ssed I lost the bet tonight, but I got extremely lucky with a bet the other day on the San Fran/Philly game. I guess I'll take the bad with the lucky wins from time to time.

[StrikeGold 0]

I swear to God that I knew my -6 bet was a one point loser once So. Miss decided to go for two. Not after they ran that stupid bootleg to the weak side for negative yards on the try, not after UCF started carving up the SM defense on the drive to cut the score to five, but right at the moment when the SM offense came out on the field after the interception TD.

 

It's sad because I actually considered not betting after the line had moved, but then thought, "How often does a move from -5 to -6 really make a difference -- no one ever loses by exactly five."

[GiantsRule 0]

Those of us that pushed/lost really shouldn't complain. The game never should have gone down to the wire:

 

-UCF missed a gimme FG

-UCF fumbled a sure TD on the one inch line and So. Miss was damn lucky to be 13-7 rather than 7-10

-UCF threw a pick six from the one yard line which you hope for when betting the favorite but doesn't happen all that often

 

Despite all that, So. Miss still played lousy and won by 5. In reality, the ones who should be pissed are the players that had UCF on the moneyline.

[Yer mom 2]

If I wasn't sure I was a degenerate, live in-game betting pretty much sealed the deal.

 

Cost me on Sunday night (took Pats +9.5 as they were driving for what should have been a FG) but avoided a sure loss and ended up winning almost as much as I put on the game.

 

Welcome to tha darkside!

 

As much as it pains me to say, I seriously usually expect to win (im gonna pay for that comment), but its this :clap during the game that makes it so damn fun! (Im a sick man with a serious problem )

 

Those of us that pushed/lost really shouldn't complain. The game never should have gone down to the wire:

 

-UCF missed a gimme FG

-UCF fumbled a sure TD on the one inch line and So. Miss was damn lucky to be 13-7 rather than 7-10

-UCF threw a pick six from the one yard line which you hope for when betting the favorite but doesn't happen all that often

 

Despite all that, So. Miss still played lousy and won by 5. In reality, the ones who should be pissed are the players that had UCF on the moneyline.

 

 

Damn straight dude, UCF should be embarrassed being that inefficient for the ESPN Tuesday night crowd. Without a doubt should have won it outright.

[GiantsRule 0]

Double-bill tomorrow boys. If you can chime in now so we can hit potential good lines, that would be great.

 

Also, note if you know if either team you expect to lose can get some late scores (that would be good candidates for live betting to catch a middle).

[Grind 0]

Hey Ditka. Where you at? I need those picks to make me some $$$$$$ this weekend. Got the need...

[StrikeGold 0]

Placed bets out of boredom rather than knowledge.

 

Went with the home teams (TCU -5 1/2 and So. Car. +14). No confidence -- just wanted to make the games interesting and have something to root for.

 

Awfully quiet today following yesterday's ugly game.

[Yer mom 2]

The lack of energy going into tomorrows games is no suprise, id rather bet the fockin Little League World Series. But since it is football, and I would bet on 2 kids running down the street, I will be layin the Auburn/SC under 37.5

 

Low totals suck, and if Auburn was at home id take Auburn. No chance I lay -14 against the Old Ball Coach on a televised Thursday night though. I figure it to be about a 20-7 game.

 

 

 

Good Luck!

[GiantsRule 0]

The lack of energy going into tomorrows games is no suprise, id rather bet the fockin Little League World Series. But since it is football, and I would bet on 2 kids running down the street, I will be layin the Auburn/SC under 37.5

 

Low totals suck, and if Auburn was at home id take Auburn. No chance I lay -14 against the Old Ball Coach on a televised Thursday night though. I figure it to be about a 20-7 game.

 

Good Luck!

 

Yeah, a total that low in college football doesn't sound that enticing. I'll buy the hook and take Spurrier's boys at +14.5.

 

No thoughts on the afternoon action?

[brzrboy 0]

I'll throw this out for discussion:

 

BYU @ TCU o/u is 47

 

Since 1992, BYU in road games where the total is between 42.5 and 49----> 11 overs, zero unders.

Since 1992, TCU in home games where the total is between 42.5 and 49----> 10 overs, 2 unders.

 

TCU has held Baylor to 7 points and Texas Tech to 3 points, which is probably why this total is not in the mid 50's. Last year's game @BYU finished TCU 51- BYU 50, not sure if that was in OT or not. I seriously doubt BYU can hold TCU to less than 28 pts and BYU's passing game should be good for some late, inconsequential TD's. I would lean to the over.