****Official College Wagering Thread****

[GiantsRule 0]

I'll throw this out for discussion:

 

BYU @ TCU o/u is 47

 

Since 1992, BYU in road games where the total is between 42.5 and 49----> 11 overs, zero unders.

Since 1992, TCU in home games where the total is between 42.5 and 49----> 10 overs, 2 unders.

 

TCU has held Baylor to 7 points and Texas Tech to 3 points, which is probably why this total is not in the mid 50's. Last year's game @BYU finished TCU 51- BYU 50, not sure if that was in OT or not. I seriously doubt BYU can hold TCU to less than 28 pts and BYU's passing game should be good for some late, inconsequential TD's. I would lean to the over.

 

Ow! Ow! Stop twisting my arm!

 

S. Carolina +14.5 (-120)

 

BYU-TCU Over 47

 

I'll also be keeping an eye on live betting for hedging & middling opportunities. Good luck to all!

[Grind 0]

Anyone else besides me nervous that Ditka isn't going to post his picks this week?

[GiantsRule 0]

Anyone else besides me nervous that Ditka isn't going to post his picks this week?

 

Very. If I have to do this on my own, I'm likely going to kiss my bankroll goodbye.

 

Fortunately, "Yer Mom" and phillybear are strong prognosticators and I'm confident in many of their picks. As long as they post for this weekend, I not as worried.

 

Did Ditka actually say he wasn't posting, or he just hasn't yet?

[PackYourNut 47]

Do not underestimate this TCU defense. Texas Tech has a WAY better offense then BYU and TCU held them to 3 points last week. This is also TCU first game in the conference adn they are playing at home. BYU defense is much improved from last year also.

 

The over is going to be tough to reach. IMO, BYU will be lucky to get to 17.

 

Prediction: TCU - 21 BYU - 13

[phillybear 366]

Overall College YTD: 72-54-3; +37.07 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 29-15-1; +35.37 units

 

Thursday

 

BYU (+6.5) for 1 unit WINNER

OVER (47) BYU/TCU for 1 unit WINNER

Adding: Auburn (-13.5) for 1 unit LOSER

 

Not in love with this game, but from a technical standpoint, Auburn is very good running the ball and stopping the run. South Carolina is below average offensively and defensively. I think Auburn will wear down the South Carolina team, and pull away late.

 

As of last night, TCU was getting around 70% of the action. I have to wait for a line until I get home from work. Still deciding on the Auburn/So Car game...

 

TCU comes in with motivation since they feel they don't get the respect they deserve, among Texas team, and as a ranked team. While they ran off an amazing winning streak last year, my enthusiasm is tempered by the enormous turnover advantage they enjoyed all of last year. They lead in the nation in plus turnovers for the year. You have to give some credence to the law of averages, as they are +4 already this year. The breaks will even out, and TCU will come back down to earth. And TCU has been OK so far this year, but their opponents have not been all that great. They came from behind to beat Baylor, in Baylor's first game breaking in a new offensive system. They beat up on Div 1-AA Cal Davis, then upset Texas Tech 12-3. After the game, Tex Tech's coach called it the worst offensively executed game he has ever seen. So it TCU's defense really as good as the stats seem to say? I don't think so. They give up 1.8 yards per rush vs teams that average 2.4 ypr, give up 4.5 yards per play vs teams that average 5.3, but they played a bunch of teams that want to throw, and are a bit one dimesional. The offense has been very pedestrian, gaining 5.3 yards per play vs team that allow 5.2. They had some running back injuries, and they will return tonight. So TCU will probably open up the offense a bit more. TCU is coming off an 11 day lay off vs 4 day layoff for BYU.

 

BYU has played a tougher schedule, put up some impressive numbers, and have suffered some bad luck. They won their two home games by 25 over a good Tulsa team and 38 points over awful Utah St. They outgained Arizona on the road, but blew a very late lead, falling 13-16. They outplayed Boston College on the road, put up a staggering 547 yards of total offense at BC, and still managed to lose the game in overtime. BYU controlled most of that game. BYU's problem is finishing off quality teams on the road. BYU is averaging 442 yards of offense per game, solid rushing and passing games, and outgaining opponents by 125 yards per game. Their offense gains 6.4 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.7. The defensive numbers are about average. The QB Beck, who missed last weeks game, is expected to start. The other Beck QB, the backup, is experienced enough as a starter to run the BYU system offense. The offense is greater than the sum of the parts.

 

Last year, these teams played to a 51-50 final score. Beck coming back, TCU running backs coming back, TCU defensive stats look a bit overinflated, I can really see another shootout here. The number is kind of low for a national TV Mountain West conference game, as long as it's under 50, which I assume it is as of this typing. BYU offense is better than TCU defense. And TCU offense is better than BYU defense. BYU looks like a live dog, in a shootout. BYU lost by 3, and by 7 in OT on the road this year, so I'll take the points instead of the money line incase they still haven't found a way to close out the games.

 

Adding: Adding Auburn (-13.5) for 1 unit

 

Not in love with this game, but from a technical standpoint, Auburn is very good running the ball and stopping the run. South Carolina is below average offensively and defensively. I think Auburn will wear down the South Carolina team, and pull away late.

 

Good luck to all.

[gummo_dude 0]

BYU spread is up to +6. Think it will go higher?

[GiantsRule 0]

C'mon philly. Pay the extra $10 for the hook and take So. Car +14.5 with me! I always feel better when I have company when losing money!

[Chronic Husker 85]

Damn, GiantsRule. Didn't you lose your ass bad enough last weekend?

[GiantsRule 0]

Damn, GiantsRule. Didn't you lose your ass bad enough last weekend?

 

Um, I actually had one of my best gambling weekends ever last weekend.

 

Considering I'm not a member of danzone's forum, I'm assuming you confused me with someone else (perhaps "Giants Rule 05" or GFIAFP)?!?

[American Chewy 98]

Overall

45-35-4 +10.045 units

2+ plays 10-9-1 +3.08 units

 

BYU +7 WINNER

 

interesting the way this line moved this week, opened at tcu -9.5 then was quickly beat down to -4.5 despite the action staying steadily over 70% on tcu. enough public money is apparently coming in today to get it back up to -7. byu appears to be a team to back this year, i've got them at 3-0-1 ATS.

[gummo_dude 0]

I think there are some questions about the health of the BYU qb. I may pass on this on and just go with Auburn in the second game.

[GiantsRule 0]

I think there are some questions about the health of the BYU qb. I may pass on this on and just go with Auburn in the second game.

 

You're willing to lay 14 points in a low scoring road game against a coach that will pass all night in garbage time?

 

Just curious. Always like seeing the rationale of people taking the opposite side that I'm taking.

[BEASTY 0]

You're willing to lay 14 points in a low scoring road game against a coach that will pass all night in garbage time?

 

Just curious. Always like seeing the rationale of people taking the opposite side that I'm taking.

I agree with gummo,SC has looked awful this yr and I dont really think their def is that good.They are starting a wr at QB against one of the best defenses in the Sec and ur point about Spurrier throwing all day long in garbage time really helped as they were shut out at home by Georgia.

[PackYourNut 47]

Looks like the sheep are leaning towards TCU and the over.... I will be betting:

 

TCU

TCU Under

Auburn

 

 

Good luck to everyone...

[TampaJim 0]

I have been lurking around for quite some time now, and I feel it is time to add my two cents...

 

TCU (-6.5 Sportsbook.com line)

3 units

 

It's all about theTcu defense. They held the Texas Tech passing attack to just 3 points, and 242 yards total offense! This defense is just getting better and better and tonight, they showcase just how good they are. This is a statement game for TCU. Their head coach Gary Patterson is looking for respect and tonight is as good a chance to get it. Byu will not be able to run the football tonight and facing a Tcu defense that knows you have to throw will lead to turnovers. You will see the real deal with Tcu tonight. Bottom line is you are not going to beat a pretty good Texas Tech team 12-3 and not get it done over Byu at home. Byu has been impressive on the road with covers at Arizona and Boston College but this is the best defense they might see all year. With the QB carousel between the Beck boys, advantage is all Tcu tonight. Tcu is 11-3 ATS last 14, and have covered 5 of their last 6 at home. I am very confident Tcu wins this game by double digits.

 

 

 

South Carolina (+14 Sportsbook.com line)

1 unit

 

Steve Spurrier getting 2 tds with an Auburn team that can't throw the football... With big wideout Rice playing well and the Gamecocks seemingly getting better offensively, the dog is the play here. It is not as if South Carolina is a terrible football team. They have playmakers, a sound front 7 on defense and I just don't see an Auburn offense being able to cover a 2 touchdown number. I like what S.Carolina has done the last two weeks and when you are only scoring 10 points in the first half at home against a MAC team in Buffalo like Auburn did last week, well I will force them to cover this number tonight and side with the generous amount of points.

[GiantsRule 0]

I have been lurking around for quite some time now, and I feel it is time to add my two cents...

 

TCU (-6.5 Sportsbook.com line)

3 units

 

It's all about theTcu defense. They held the Texas Tech passing attack to just 3 points, and 242 yards total offense! This defense is just getting better and better and tonight, they showcase just how good they are. This is a statement game for TCU. Their head coach Gary Patterson is looking for respect and tonight is as good a chance to get it. Byu will not be able to run the football tonight and facing a Tcu defense that knows you have to throw will lead to turnovers. You will see the real deal with Tcu tonight. Bottom line is you are not going to beat a pretty good Texas Tech team 12-3 and not get it done over Byu at home. Byu has been impressive on the road with covers at Arizona and Boston College but this is the best defense they might see all year. With the QB carousel between the Beck boys, advantage is all Tcu tonight. Tcu is 11-3 ATS last 14, and have covered 5 of their last 6 at home. I am very confident Tcu wins this game by double digits.

 

 

 

South Carolina (+14 Sportsbook.com line)

1 unit

 

Steve Spurrier getting 2 tds with an Auburn team that can't throw the football... With big wideout Rice playing well and the Gamecocks seemingly getting better offensively, the dog is the play here. It is not as if South Carolina is a terrible football team. They have playmakers, a sound front 7 on defense and I just don't see an Auburn offense being able to cover a 2 touchdown number. I like what S.Carolina has done the last two weeks and when you are only scoring 10 points in the first half at home against a MAC team in Buffalo like Auburn did last week, well I will force them to cover this number tonight and side with the generous amount of points.

 

I'll take a 20-7 Auburn win! Good luck!

[EAwer 1]

wtf channel is byu/tcu on

[Yer mom 2]

Afternoon gents! Looks like the action is underway, hope you all come out winners.

 

My play is the Auburn/SC under 37.5 for 1.5 Benjis, as ridiculous as it sounds I am only taking it because the clock starts on change of posession which cuts about 15 plays in the game, and I dont see much happening offensively as well obviously.

 

Have fun and clean your mans clock!

 

Halftime wagers......ALWAYS negotiable, will be looking at those too probably.

[TampaJim 0]

I'll take a 20-7 Auburn win! Good luck!

 

 

Thanks man...

 

You too!

[phillybear 366]

wtf channel is byu/tcu on

 

I just found it on the Outdoor Life Network. I got basic cable, and I got the game.

 

It's on direct tv too, but I can't help with that.

 

 

BYU is up 3-0. Had a first and goal inside the ten, but had to settle.

 

Adding Auburn (-13.5) for 1 unit

 

Not in love with this game, but from a technical standpoint, Auburn is very good running the ball and stopping the run. South Carolina is below average offensively and defensively. I think Auburn will wear down the South Carolina team, and pull away late.

[American Chewy 98]

i really like how this game is starting out...this does look like it will be a shootout which is good for your over philly...

 

i found the game on the "VS." network on my cable?? guess that is what the OLN is called now.

[phillybear 366]

Adding some early Saturday action...

 

Florida (-14)@-120 for 3 units (bought half a point).

Also Pitt (-16) for 2 units

 

i really like how this game is starting out...this does look like it will be a shootout which is good for your over philly...

 

Meh, not feeling good about it unless it goes to overtime. Too many long drives with no points. Only 10-0, late second quarter. At least BYU is looking strong so far.

 

This is why I usually don't do over/unders in college.

[American Chewy 98]

yeah now it doesn't look good after the missed FG and a couple of stall outs on both sides. i dont like o/u's either.

 

thinking about any 2nd half plays?

[phillybear 366]

thinking about any 2nd half plays?

 

Nah.

 

I wasn't crazy about the games tonight anyway. Feels like I forced them a bit.

[thekris 0]

Nah.

 

I wasn't crazy about the games tonight anyway. Feels like I forced them a bit.

 

Any early thoughts on tomorrow night's game?

[phillybear 366]

Any early thoughts on tomorrow night's game?

 

Probably South Florida for one unit. Both teams are pretty even, but South Florida has been an excellent team at home for many, many years. Rutgers has been impressive, against very, very crappy teams however.

[Bouve 0]

Hey guys,

 

I withdrew all my online funds after Monday nights game as I had to have additional cash to pay off an unexpected bill. I will be reloading early next week so sadly I won't be placing any bets this weekend. I will however toss out a few in the NFL thread that I like.

 

Good luck this week and see you in the new thread next week.

[Yer mom 2]

What the fock is the Auburn/SC game blacked out on ESPN for?? I have a history of fockin bad luck with blackout games....anyone else have the game on another channel????

[Yer mom 2]

Ahhh...here it is That was really weird, must have just been my TV's

 

Good luck!

[phillybear 366]

BYU 31-10.

 

Now I need a garbage TD for the over. 7 minutes to go.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

got byu, auburn 1H, auburn UNDER tonight...

 

Fri/Sat card

 

FRI

 

Rutgers -4

 

SAT

 

Ohio St -6.5

Air Force -13.5

Navy +2.5

Navy ML +120

Ohio -4

Miami Fl -16.5

G Tech +10.5

G Tech UND 37.5

Boise +5.5

Fresno St -13

Wash St/USC OV 49

Wash St +17

Neb -22.5

 

gl to all

[GiantsRule 0]

BYU 31-10.

 

Now I need a garbage TD for the over. 7 minutes to go.

 

No shot. TCU has given up and BYU will run the clock out on next possession.

[phillybear 366]

Adding more.

 

So far..

 

Florida (-14)@-120 for 3 units (bought half a point).

Pitt (-16) for 2 units

Utah (-5) for 3 units

 

I think that should be it for early action as of tonight.

[gummo_dude 0]

Damn, BYU is probably gonna just sit on it for a while.

[GiantsRule 0]

Damn, BYU is probably gonna just sit on it for a while.

 

Exactly.

 

BTW, ESPN Gamecast has been the worst for betting karma. Every time I bet on a team and it takes forever for the next play to update, it's because a turnover happened against me!

[gummo_dude 0]

[phillybear 366]

Garbage TD by TCU.

 

31-17. Looking good so far for this game. If BYU can hold on. Less than 2 minutes to go.

[GiantsRule 0]

Garbage TD by TCU.

 

31-17. Looking good so far for this game. If BYU can hold on. Less than 2 minutes to go.

 

I'm such a b!tch...but I'm a b!tch who just cashed another ticket!

 

Congrats to you too, philly (and any other over bettors!)

 

[brzrboy 0]

Roses are red

Violets are blue

I love garbage points

and so does everyone who had the byu/tcu over

 

 

Doesn't rhyme, but I don't care.

 

[Yer mom 2]

2nd half Auburn -7 20

 

Both these teams are moving the ball like their the 99 Rams, Auburns D is looking flat weak against the pass.

 

Think im gonna take my losses on the under in this one and lay off the 2nd half, first losing day since the season started, guess the pendulum had to swing the other way....

 

Good luck fellas!