**Official College Bowl Games Betting Thread**

[phillybear 366]

Overall College YTD: 267-232-6; +47.12 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 138-112-2; +56.62 units

Subset: College bowls: 11-8; +5.1 units

 

Sunday

 

Nevada (+3.5) for 2 units WINNER!!

 

I finally decided on this game, after reading a lot of articles. Miami players are whining about the frigid weather in Boise. They have gone as far as to complain about the blue turf. Miami players are talking a lot about how they are returning a bunch of starters next year. Point is, they are focusing on next year already. Granted, Miami has more athletic talent. But they seem to have a bad attitude towards this game. Familiarity is also a key, as Nevada is 7-1 SU on turf this year, and Miami has played every game on grass. Nevada runs an usual offense, the Pistol, and Miami will have some trouble preparing for it.

 

Good luck to all.

 

It sucks having bronchitits during holidays, and have to stay in. But Nevada cheered me up with a cover. At least I won't be hung over tomorrow morning for all the college games.

 

Overall College YTD: 268-232-6; +49.12 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 139-112-2; +58.62 units

Subset: College bowls: 12-8; +7.1 units

[GiantsRule 0]

Happy New Year fellow degenerates!

 

Anybody have thoughts on the totals tomorrow? Very anxious to take the over in the Wisconsin game, but need input from the guys that know what they're doing.

 

I've had a great bowl season betting the over in the first quarter (7.5, usually for even money or better). Do any of the six games on tap tomorrow look like good candidates for this bet?

[GiantsRule 0]

Until I get Art's official plays, I'm going with a 2-teamer at 1 p.m.:

 

Wisconsin ML (+115)

Wisconsin-Arkansas Over 45

 

Pays almost 3:1 odds.

 

Good luck to all!

[brzrboy 0]

It's time to hit the over's heavy.

 

I like the first five games all going over tomorrow. All the numbers are between 41.5 and 47. Of the last 14 bowl games, only one has stayed below 41 points. Does anyone have a current over/under total for the bowls to date? I know the past two years have been about 60% overs in the bowls, but I was wondering if the new clock rules would have any effect this year.

 

It seems 3 of the following have to go over tomorrow.

 

Neb/Aub 46.5

PSt/Tenn 41.5

Wisc/Ark 46

GT/WV 47

Mich/USC 47

 

Yeah, I know, the better defenses will start to show up, but I'm gonna take them all straight up and throw in some parlays. Maybe some teasers too. Even that excruciatingly slow Clemson/Kentucky game ended up with 48 points. Out of those five, I think the ones that might stay under are Penn St/Tenn and Mich/USC. Thoughts from anyone?

[phillybear 366]

Does anyone have a current over/under total for the bowls to date?

 

After the favorites and unders were covering almost all the early games, tallies so far...

 

Overs 9

Unders 12

 

Favorites 10

Dogs 11

[phillybear 366]

Overall College YTD: 268-232-6; +49.12 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 139-112-2; +58.62 units

Subset: College bowls: 12-8; +7.1 units

 

Monday

 

Nebraska (Moneyline@+110) for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

Penn St (+4) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

Wisconsin (Moneyline@+115) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

West Virginia (-11) for 6 units LOSER!!!!!!!!!!

West Virginia 2nd H (-7)@-105 for 6 units WINNER!!!!!!!!!!

Michigan (-1) for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

Boise St 1st H (+3.5) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

Boise St (+7.5) for 6 units WINNER!!!!!!!!!!

 

I was initially hesistant to go against the better defense in this game of Auburn, but Nebraska should win. The Cornhuskers are slowly becoming an elite program again, and these games are meaningful. They played Michigan to the wire in last year's bowl. Auburn seems to play badly whenever they have a huge game that can make or break their season. Auburn is 4-7 ATS as a favorite, 2-4 ATS vs teams with a winning record. They only good teams Auburn played in the final 7 games was vs Arkansas and Georgia, and they got blown out in both games. Nebraska played 6 bowl teams in their final 7 games, going 3-3 SU. Nebraska looks more prepared for this game.

 

Now, for this game, I will take the better defense in Penn St. And, wow, what a better defense. The Nittany Lions held their last 6 opponents to an average of 9 pts a game. 9 friggin' points. And this included giving up 17 pts to Michigan and 13 points to Wisconsin, and shutting out Purdue. Penn St might not need to score many points to cover this spread. Granted, Penn St did not play all that well on the road for the most part, but they gave Ohio St a tough game before a couple of INT returns in the final moments dressed up the final score. Penn St's 4 losses include losses to top 6 teams Ohio St, Michigan, Wisconsin. Tenn only lost to bowl teams, but struggled down the stretch, losing to LSU and Arkansas before beating Vandy and squeaking by Kentucky. I can't resist taking the defense in this game.

 

Wisconsin is a bit of an unknown, but went 8-2 ATS. Arkansas went 5-7 ATS. Wisconsin owns the better offense and better defense in this game. I have to wonder about the Arkansas mind set. There was talk of a championship game shot, or at the very least a BCS game, if they ran the table at the end. Instead, they lost to LSU and Florida, to fall out of the picture. I have to expect them to be disappointed with their fate. Last year, Wisc was a big dog to Auburn, and blew out the disappointed Auburn team.

 

West Virginia should rout Georgia Tech. While both defenses are comparable, WV owns the much better offense, by over 140 total yards per game. WV averages 6.7 yards per rush vs teams that allow 4.2 ypr. WV averages 7.3 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.4 ypp. The only other good running team that GT faced, Clemson gained 322 yards rushing in that game. West Virginia's strength on defense is vs the run, and their mediocre pass defense will be facing a backup QB, as Reggie Ball is out for this game. Motivation is another thing. While WV lately has been a solid team in bowls, GT is in a similar situation this year as last. GT was disappointed in their bowl game, and lost to Utah 38-10. This year, GT lost to Wake Forest in the ACC championship game, and missed out on a BCS slot. GT lost their last two games of the year, despite leading in the 4th quarter. They struggled to score their last couple of games, totaling 7 points vs North Carolina, 12 points vs Georgia, and 6 points vs Wake Forest (and put up decent points vs a crappy Duke team). So how many points realistically will GT score here. WV lost to Louisville and So Flor, but rallied with an inspiring win over Rutgers in their season finale, a game they played without QB Pat White. He will be back for this game. Lay the lumber.

 

Both teams have good offenses, with USC with slightly better stats. Michigan has a much better defense, giving up 4.2 yards per play vs teams that average 5.6 ypp. Michigan went 5-0 ATS on the road, USC went 2-4 ATS. Michigan was 4-0 ATS vs teams with a winning record, USC went 3-5 ATS. Both teams failed to grab their chance at a natiional title, and motivation could be a key here. USC is used to playing for national titles the last few years. But won't be this year. Michigan might hold out some hope for a split national title, or some kind of voter sympathy, by blowing out USC. We will see. But, again, I will back the much better defense. Michigan seemed to excel when playing good teams, USC didn't.

 

I honestly think the wrong team is favored, as Boise St looks like the better team. Let's look at the scheduling. Boise St played cupcakes, right? Well, they went 5-0 SU vs bowl teams, including some big time routs of Oregon St, Utah, and Nevada. You might point to Boise St losing at Georgia last year, but Boise turned it over 5 times in the first half, and could not overcome that disaster. However, let's look at Boise St in the last 2 bowl game, both losses. Both times, they were underdogs. They lost to Louisville 2 year's ago, at Louisville's home field 44-40, in a BCS game. They also lost to BC last year 27-21. Both times, they stayed within 7 points. Boise is overlooked, underrated, and for real. They own the better offense and better defensive stats in this game. Yep, better defense than Oklahoma. Boise St is 7th in the nation vs the rush, giving up 3.0 ypr vs teams that average 3.9 ypr, which bodes well vs Oklahoma's run heavy attack. Yep, Adrian Peterson is back from his broken collarbone, but how will he react to live hitting. Collarbones are tough injuries to shake off quickly. Realistically, Oklahoma backed their way into the Big 12 championship when Texas lost to Kansas St. I like Boise St to move the ball very effectively with veteran QB Zabransky and the #2 rushing leader in the nation Ian Johnson. Also, the WAC is pretty good this year, seeing Hawaii and San Jose St already winning their bowl games. Edit: and Nevada lost by a point to Miami Fla, outstatting them in the process. Take the points.

 

Huge card. Good luck to all.

[phillybear 366]

Who is getting the action...

 

Auburn 71% over Wisconsin

Tennessee 72% over Penn St

Wisconsin 57% over Arkansas

West Virginia 58% over Georgia Tech

Michigan 75% over USC

Oklahoma 60% over Boise St

[dain11279 976]

Overall College YTD: 268-232-6; +49.12 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 139-112-2; +58.62 units

Subset: College bowls: 12-8; +7.1 units

 

Monday

 

Waiting on some lines, hoping they move in my favor. Might make them moneyline plays.

 

Nebraska for 3 units

Penn St (+4) for 3 units

Wisconsin for 3 units

West Virginia (-11) for 6 units

Michigan (-1) for 3 units

Boise St (+7.5) for 6 units

 

.

 

Getting a little feisty late in the bowl year philly lol. Ive never seen u take a 6 unit pick but i also like west virginia today so hopefully its a good sign. Good luck!

[phillybear 366]

Getting a little feisty late in the bowl year philly lol. Ive never seen u take a 6 unit pick but i also like west virginia today so hopefully its a good sign. Good luck!

 

I had maybe a dozen plays for 4,5,or 6 units last year, including the bowls. Had two 6 units plays, on Hawaii. They covered vs Utah St, but came up short vs Wisconsin.

 

Yeah, getting a little bit reckless. But it's the end of potentially another successful year, so I'm rolling the dice. I really like the plays, statistically and gut feeling wise. Hopefully, today is a good day.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

Let's get it going today boys. I agree with Phillybear on his plays except for the early ones.

 

Tenn -4 six units

Aub -1.5 six units

 

WVU -10 three units

Wisc +2 two units

 

We'll see how I'm looking going into Rose Bowl but I will take Michigan for 4 units at least and Boise St for at least two units.

[JT 137]

Happy New Year! Hope it's one of health and prosperity for all.

 

Still getting thrashed in the bowls (8-11 ATS), but won my last 2. Hopefully that's turning things around.

Here's my picks for the day:

 

Tennessee -4 Penn St: I hear what Philly's saying about the Penn St defense, but I don't think the Lions have much shot at scoring here. Vols are healthy; the late season slump was due to key injuries.

 

Nebraska +3.5 Auburn: Nebraska too good an offense to get these points against an Auburn squad that just wants the year to be over.

 

West Va -10.5 Ga Tech: The common opponent trend remains perfect in the bowl season. When the teams have had a single common opponent and a solid disparity between results, the team that fared better has won and covered. GT beat Md by 4, WVU beat them by 21. Add in Tech's inexperienced QB & a healthy Pat White, and WVU rolls. Only 2 of the last 19 Gator Bowls have been decided by 7 pts or less.

 

Wisconsin +2.5 Arkansas:Guess we'll find out about the Badgers. My take is their a rock solid defense, with a senior QB and a strong running game. Ark has defensive liabilities and sorry play at QB.

 

Boise +7.5 Oklaoma: The Sooners are a talented team; great athletes, speed on both sides of the ball. But we've seen emotion at play in these games, and Boise has it in spades. They also have enough talent to play with the big boys.

 

Good luck to all!

[phillybear 366]

It's 11:00 AM, and I am opening up a beer. That's just wrong. Dam wrong. Eh...

[swirvenirvin 25]

Following you guys with Wisky

 

Straight Wager 01/01/07 11:20 ET

Result: Pending

Wisconsin

Arkansas 01/01/07 (13:05 ET)

Wisconsin +110

 

 

Straight Wager 01/01/07 11:33 ET

Result: Pending

Nebraska

Auburn 01/01/07 (11:40 ET)

Over 47

[GiantsRule 0]

Until I get Art's official plays, I'm going with a 2-teamer at 1 p.m.:

 

Wisconsin ML (+115)

Wisconsin-Arkansas Over 45

 

Pays almost 3:1 odds.

 

Good luck to all!

 

Art seems awfully confident in Tennessee and I found it 1/2 a point cheaper at Skybook so I grabbed it: Tennessee -3.5

 

Hate seeing Art & philly on opposite sides of the early games, so I'm playing it "safe" by heeding brzrboy's advice and taking the total: Auburn-Nebraska Over 46 (-120)

 

May be taking my first college prop of the season in the Rose Bowl: JD Booty Total Completions Over 21 (-105). Hoping some money pours in on the under so I can get even odds or better.

 

Could use the nice start to the new year. Penn moving the ball with ease but can't put points on the board. Tenn simply can't get anything going, period. Hopefully, this will be the slowest moving game of the day.

 

Good luck to all!

 

Can we get a New Year's party hat on this guy ------->

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

I am playing today!

 

Tennessee -4 (2 units)

West Virginia -10 (4 units)

Boise St +7.5 (2 units)

Arkanasas -2 (4 units)

Neb/Aub over 46.5 (1 unit)

Michigan -2 (6 units)

 

Hoops

Southern Illinois -4 (6 units)

 

No alcohol for me. I have a 10K on Feb. 3rd so I have to clean it the diet and exercise program for at least the next month.

[OGAR 0]

Happy New Years, fellas.

 

I'm on Wisc, Mich and WV.

 

Sorta like Okl. Didn't realize it was 7.5 though. May Play Boise. Probably wait and see how Michigan does.

 

GL all. Hope we can make some coin.

[GiantsRule 0]

I am playing today!

 

Tennessee -4 (2 units)

West Virginia -10 (4 units)

Boise St +7.5 (2 units)

Arkanasas -2 (4 units)

Neb/Aub over 46.5 (1 unit)

Michigan -2 (6 units)

 

Hoops

Southern Illinois -4 (6 units)

 

No alcohol for me. I have a 10K on Feb. 3rd so I have to clean it the diet and exercise program for at least the next month.

 

Dammit, you're on Arkansas?!? That stinks. Makes me less confident in my parlay.

 

May jump on that Southern Ill game though. Good luck in the new year!

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

GR,

 

I think the SEC is way better than the Big Ten. And I am a Big Ten fan. So that should tell you who I like in the National Championship.

[GiantsRule 0]

And what would a college football game be without a fumble deep in their territory? Penn State recovers near the red zone. Lovely.

[GBFAVRE4 0]

Rule #1

 

NEVER go against Phillybear.

 

FUKKEM BUCKY TODAY!!!

[ROCKET 0]

Still 2 games below .500 for the bowls. The one game I'm not touching is Wisc/Ark. These teams have been great ATS and I think it's way too even a game.

Took

Penn St +3.5

Auburn -2.5

leaning towards

UWV

Boise

I Love Michigan but so does everyone else here, I've yet to see anyone on USC which scares me.

I got absolutely hammered yesterday by Denver, New England and San Diego. Rivers and LT hobble off and SD scrapes out a win while the Pats play like it's the focking SB and even the scrubs like Vinny T outplay the Titans starters. I'm definately in a bad streak so it's definately not time to load up on anything for me, especially prime time games where I'm betting the public's side ( I wanted to load up on Mich and OSU).

GL everyone.

 

It's 11:00 AM, and I am opening up a beer. That's just wrong. Dam wrong. Eh...

 

 

I have the worst hangover I've had in months. Too many 32 0Z Margeritas (sp?) last night . Add to that a crapass losing streak . Oh well it's a New Year, maybe sheit will turn around

[GiantsRule 0]

Art seems awfully confident in Tennessee and I found it 1/2 a point cheaper at Skybook so I grabbed it: Tennessee -3.5

 

Hate seeing Art & philly on opposite sides of the early games, so I'm playing it "safe" by heeding brzrboy's advice and taking the total: Auburn-Nebraska Over 46 (-120)

 

May be taking my first college prop of the season in the Rose Bowl: JD Booty Total Completions Over 21 (-105). Hoping some money pours in on the under so I can get even odds or better.

 

Could use the nice start to the new year. Penn moving the ball with ease but can't put points on the board. Tenn simply can't get anything going, period. Hopefully, this will be the slowest moving game of the day.

 

Good luck to all!

 

Can we get a New Year's party hat on this guy ------->

 

Scratch the prop idea. I thought JDB threw a ton and he does, but only completes about 17-19 passes a game. Leaning towards the over as I think this could mirror the classic Michigan-O. State game almost two months ago!

 

Against my better judgement, I'm following the group: West Virginia -9.5. Not that I don't think philly is onto something, but big spreads in the bowls just scare the crap out of me, particulalry after I got burned by Clemson Friday afternoon.

[phillybear 366]

Pat Summerall is brutal. Simply brutal. Why is he still doing play by play? Getting players wrong. Voice inflection never changes. Senial turd.

 

I want to punch him in the face. Repeatedly.

[GiantsRule 0]

Pat Summerall is brutal. Simply brutal. Why is he still doing play by play? Getting players wrong. Voice inflection never changes. Senial turd.

 

I want to punch him in the face. Repeatedly.

 

Agreed. On the flip side, the Penn-Tenn game is making me realize how much I miss Mike Patrick on Sunday Night games. That guy was vastly underrated for his insight, enthusiasm, and his ability to make Cleveland-Houston games appear Super Bowl caliber. He was also the perfect foil for the Maguire-Theismann silliness.

[JT 137]

Pat Summerall is brutal. Simply brutal. Why is he still doing play by play? Getting players wrong. Voice inflection never changes. Senial turd.

 

I want to punch him in the face. Repeatedly.

 

No kidding. I'd rather listen to Gilbert Gottfried call the game.

[phillybear 366]

Now, it gets fun. Flipping channels between 4 games.

[t.j 35]

Now, it gets fun. Flipping channels between 4 games.

 

With my setup, I hate this. I have a dual-tuner DVR (Media Center) and usually record two games at the same time and watch the recordings (I skip commercials and see all the action without falling far behind). I can't record the earlier games without missing a big chunk of the games that started later. Plus I don't know what time the earlier games will actually end so I can't set up manual recordings efficiently.

[phillybear 366]

Actually, I have to flip between 5 channels. I played New Mex plus the points in baskets. Big baskets play upcoming on Alabama.

 

Dam. I have a headache already.

[swirvenirvin 25]

With my setup, I hate this. I have a dual-tuner DVR (Media Center) and usually record two games at the same time and watch the recordings (I skip commercials and see all the action without falling far behind). I can't record the earlier games without missing a big chunk of the games that started later. Plus I don't know what time the earlier games will actually end so I can't set up manual recordings efficiently.

 

 

I will do the same, Im just going split screen on the 2 Big Ten games

 

Was waiting for some movement in my favor, ill take the -105

 

Straight Wager 01/01/07 13:23 ET

Result: Pending

Michigan

USC 01/01/07 (17:05 ET)

Michigan -2 (-105)

[phillybear 366]

WV 4 rushes. TD. That's the way to start a game.

[swirvenirvin 25]

WV 4 rushes. TD. That's the way to start a game.

 

 

[phillybear 366]

Nice. Wisc 52 yard FG, and dodged a bullet earlier with a short Ark FG.

 

Dam. I'm getting drunk.

 

Tenn INT.

 

Fock. Way to cover the pass, WV.

 

I'm gonna stop posting now. Bad luck, I guess.

[GiantsRule 0]

Nice. Wisc 52 yard FG, and dodged a bullet earlier with a short Ark FG.

 

Dam. I'm getting drunk.

 

Tenn INT.

 

Fock. Way to cover the pass, WV.

 

I'm gonna stop posting now. Bad luck, I guess.

 

Fantastic idea. I'm getting killed. Penn driving for the go-ahead. G. Tech answers the WV TD easily. Arkansas with a 76-yard TD (need the points but coming from Wisc). Scoring slowing down in Neb-Aub.

 

I'll post to recap losses, but I'm done commenting in-game. It's frustrating as fvck.

 

I'll close by saying: West Virginia is ridiculously overrated and once again, I get fvcked on a 9.5 spread as G. Tech goes up 14-7. Never again!

[hardboy23 0]

Fantastic idea. I'm getting killed. Penn driving for the go-ahead. G. Tech answers the WV TD easily. Arkansas with a 76-yard TD (need the points but coming from Wisc). Scoring slowing down in Neb-Aub.

 

I'll post to recap losses, but I'm done commenting in-game. It's frustrating as fvck.

 

I'll close by saying: West Virginia is ridiculously overrated and once again, I get fvcked on a 9.5 spread as G. Tech goes up 14-7. Never again!

Just flipped to the GAY Tech game to see the 2nd TD (14-7) and then hear Ball is suspended. West Virginia's only excuse for losing will be......hardboy23 bet on us!!!!!

[phillybear 366]

Bennett is shredding WV pass defense. Horrible call by me at this point. I suck.

[GiantsRule 0]

Sorry, I can't resist:

 

FVCK WEST VIRGINIA! MAY YOU BECOME THE NEXT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL NEXT SEASON! OVERRATED TURDS!

[swirvenirvin 25]

Ehhhhhh

 

So I dont thin the Aub Neb game is going over

 

FOCK

[GiantsRule 0]

Ehhhhhh

 

So I dont thin the Aub Neb game is going over

 

FOCK

 

I actually bought it back at halftime (Under 23.5). I feared they wouldn't keep up that pace. Middle potential, but I just want to make sure I don't lose even more on this disasterous day (has all the makings of an O-for, thanks to the c-sucker on Tennessee that turned a potential TD into an 86-yard TD for Penn State)

[phillybear 366]

Penn St covers.

 

With WV defense looking like dog sh!t, I better concentrate on hitting some of these smaller plays.

 

OK. Nebraska forces a TO. Need some points.

[phillybear 366]

This might be the stupidest bet I made all year, and yeah, I might be chasing. But G Tech can't stop the run. WV needs to make some adjustments in the second half. Betting reckless here...

 

West Virginia 2nd H (-7)@-105 for 6 units