Get off the LJ is done bandwagon!

[kiki 0]

All I have been reading about LJ is that he's done because he carried the ball so many times last year. But as I'm looking over stats, I see that Sjax had almost as many touches but for some reason "he's going to be the next best back behind LT" this year:

 

LJ = 416 rush 41 rec for a total of 457 touches.

SJax = 346 rush 90 rec for a total of 436 touches.

 

I understand they both got used a lot last year, but with 19 fewer touches, how come everyone thinks Sjax will dominate again, and LJ will fall off? Makes no sense to me... Oh, and BTW, LT had 400+ touches too.

[Parkers99 0]

hmm.. that's a pretty good point.

[t.j 35]

with 19 fewer touches, how come everyone thinks Sjax will dominate again, and LJ will fall off?

 

Because receptions are not as punishing as rushes.

Either way, Jackson's workload is not a reason to "Get off the LJ is done bandwagon"

[MTSkiBum 1,605]

Because in addition to LJ's high touches, his line is aging and/or retiring

[gobuckeyes 0]

Plus LJ's running style is much more physical than either SJ or LT. LJ still has less than 900 career carries though, I'm not sure he'll be done this year.

[kiki 0]

Because receptions are not as punishing as rushes.

 

I disagree... each play is differant, but in some cases, those catches out of the backfield can be more dangerous with linebackers and strong hitting safeties chasing you down on the sideline. As an LJ owner, I watched a lot of KC games and there were plenty of times LJ got his 1 yard and went down without taking a huge blow. Not saying he's a puss or anything, he's just a smart RB, LT does the same thing... If there's nothing there, get 'em on the next play...

 

I don't think either one of these guys will show effects of the amount of touches they had last year. I'm just curious why everyone thinks LJ is going to break down yet the LOVE Sjax

[famousb 11]

Maybe we can all just jump on the "SJax is done bandwagon too!!!!"

[t.j 35]

LJ still has less than 900 career carries though, I'm not sure he'll be done this year.

 

I don't think career carries really matters. http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...66227&st=40

[famousb 11]

I don't think career carries really matters. http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...66227&st=40

 

i love a good stat compilation

 

last year i did a similar one for RBs that reached the 1800 yd rushing plateau (for SA and Tiki), and out of every RB that ever reached 1800 yds in a given year, only 1 repeated (Dickerson). The rest saw similar drop-offs to those that your carry analysis shows... now LJ didn't reach 1800, but i would feel pretty safe rounding his 1789 up and putting it in w/ the rest...

 

and i think most people that say they don't buy into the stats and history and trends are the ones that are just to lazy to actually read the stats and analysis...

[Belushi 9]

This is why Chris Brown will be a top 5 RB this year. He had almost no touches last year. He's gold!

 

That is, if a team signs him. Otherwise, next year he'll be even better because he'll have had no touches this year!

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

All I have been reading about LJ is that he's done because he carried the ball so many times last year. But as I'm looking over stats, I see that Sjax had almost as many touches but for some reason "he's going to be the next best back behind LT" this year:

 

LJ = 416 rush 41 rec for a total of 457 touches.

SJax = 346 rush 90 rec for a total of 436 touches.

 

I understand they both got used a lot last year, but with 19 fewer touches, how come everyone thinks Sjax will dominate again, and LJ will fall off? Makes no sense to me... Oh, and BTW, LT had 400+ touches too.

 

I haven't read, or bothered to read, much about LJ being done. I've got him behind SJ in my rankings b/c of situation. The Rams offense playing in the NFC west is why I have SJ ahead of LJ. I don't like LJ's aging or changing offense and I don't like his coach and he's got to play Denver and SD 2 times per year.

 

Unlike last year, I wouldn't feel as bad about drafting after the 3rd pick in a redraft league. LT should be the uncontested #1 but LJ or SJ could put up less stats than this past year. LJ due to situation and SJ back to what he was doing in toward the beginning of 2006 as opposed to the ridiculous way he ended 2006.

[jdon 28]

This is why Chris Brown will be a top 5 RB this year. He had almost no touches last year. He's gold!

 

That is, if a team signs him. Otherwise, next year he'll be even better because he'll have had no touches this year!

 

exactly!!!!

 

though I will say that carries matter a little bit more... I don't think that anyone would argue that a person who drives a mile to work is more likely to have his car down than the guy who drives an hour, that said I don't think anyone would get down on the guy driving an hour. Get it?

 

and 70 carries is a big difference in my oppinion... plus lj made the playoffs, so we're talking close to 100 less carries for sjax = your point is moot

jdon

[t.j 35]

I disagree... each play is differant, but in some cases, those catches out of the backfield can be more dangerous with linebackers and strong hitting safeties chasing you down on the sideline. As an LJ owner, I watched a lot of KC games and there were plenty of times LJ got his 1 yard and went down without taking a huge blow. Not saying he's a puss or anything, he's just a smart RB, LT does the same thing... If there's nothing there, get 'em on the next play...

 

How often does a RB get gang-tackled by the big guys on a reception? That's the kind of thing that worries me about having lots of carries. Sure each play is different, but I think rushing attempts are on average much more dangerous than receptions. What's worse, LBs and SSs chasing you down on the sideline on a reception, or LBs and SSs hitting you head-on on a run?

[mozzy84 0]

All I have been reading about LJ is that he's done because he carried the ball so many times last year. But as I'm looking over stats, I see that Sjax had almost as many touches but for some reason "he's going to be the next best back behind LT" this year:

 

LJ = 416 rush 41 rec for a total of 457 touches.

SJax = 346 rush 90 rec for a total of 436 touches.

 

I understand they both got used a lot last year, but with 19 fewer touches, how come everyone thinks Sjax will dominate again, and LJ will fall off? Makes no sense to me... Oh, and BTW, LT had 400+ touches too.

flawed logic imo, a guy getting 60 carries over say two games opposed to a guy getting 45 carries and 15 catches in that same span is a big difference imo. The guy running the ball more is getting hit alot more and hit harder imo.

[kiki 0]

How often does a RB get gang-tackled by the big guys on a reception? That's the kind of thing that worries me about having lots of carries. Sure each play is different, but I think rushing attempts are on average much more dangerous than receptions. What's worse, LBs and SSs chasing you down on the sideline on a reception, or LBs and SSs hitting you head-on on a run?

 

 

Ask Trent Green if he'd rather get sacked in the pocket or chased down on the sideline...

 

Point is, vicious hits can come from anywhere. I think some people concentrate too much on # of carries and don't account for total touches.

[t.j 35]

Ask Trent Green if he'd rather get sacked in the pocket or chased down on the sideline...

 

You're joking, right?

1. Trent Green got injured on a rushing attempt

2. Green got injured on a hit by a defensive lineman. Which was one of my big points, you take more hits from the big guys on rushing attempts much more often than you do on receptions.

3. Even more importantly, Green got hurt because he attempted a late slide and as a result left himself extra vulnerable to a big hit. I have never seen a RB take a hit that looked anything like that hit at the end of a reception.

[famousb 11]

I have never seen a RB take a hit that looked anything like that hit at the end of a reception.

 

not that i disagree with your point, but Reggie Bush got SMEARED by Shelton Brown last year - remember that, it was AWESOME!!!!!

[mozzy84 0]

Ask Trent Green if he'd rather get sacked in the pocket or chased down on the sideline...

 

Point is, vicious hits can come from anywhere. I think some people concentrate too much on # of carries and don't account for total touches.

I disagree you are getting hit harder, more often, by bigger guys (lineman), when running the ball. Those swing passes are usually in open space away from the real big guys. Vicious hits have nothing to do with it, its constant pounding were talking about.

[kiki 0]

You're joking, right?

1. Trent Green got injured on a rushing attempt

2. Green got injured on a hit by a defensive lineman. Which was one of my big points, you take more hits from the big guys on rushing attempts much more often than you do on receptions.

3. Even more importantly, Green got hurt because he attempted a late slide and as a result left himself extra vulnerable to a big hit. I have never seen a RB take a hit that looked anything like that hit at the end of a reception.

 

 

You don't remember LJ getting his head damn near ripped off down the left sideline at the tail end of a reception last year? The Reggie Bush hit that was already mentioned... could probably name a lot more if I wanted to put the time into it...

 

RB receptions are nothing more than an extended handoff in most cases... We could argue this point all day but the bottom line is Sjax got "hit" almost as much as LJ last year and has been more injury prone so far over his short carrier, yet people are bumping him up into the "can't miss stud area" (which is where he belongs imo) while predicting that LJ will breakdown.

 

I like both guys to be monster producers this year, I've just read so many articles about how LJ's career is over that I felt like asking the experts at FFtoday why?? I haven't seen a solid explenation posted yet.

[famousb 11]

I like both guys to be monster producers this year, I've just read so many articles about how LJ's career is over that I felt like asking the experts at FFtoday why?? I haven't seen a solid explenation posted yet.

oh, if that's all you wanted to know - i can explain why LJ is on the downside of his career in two words ... Herm Edwards.

 

[t.j 35]

You don't remember LJ getting his head damn near ripped off down the left sideline at the tail end of a reception last year? The Reggie Bush hit that was already mentioned... could probably name a lot more if I wanted to put the time into it...

 

Sure, go ahead and list every example you can think of for RBs getting dinged up on rushes or receptions. Thanks in advance.

 

RB receptions are nothing more than an extended handoff in most cases...

 

This is garbage. You are talking about getting the ball in front of the defensive line vs getting the ball in the flat or beyond the line of scrimmage, there's no comparison. You're more likely to get hit by more guys and bigger guys on a run, and you're more likely to go out of bounds without getting tackled on a reception.

 

I like both guys to be monster producers this year, I've just read so many articles about how LJ's career is over that I felt like asking the experts at FFtoday why?? I haven't seen a solid explenation posted yet.

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...266227&st=0

Note that there are a bunch of other studies on the same subject mentioned in the thread, not just mine.

[ElwayFan 0]

 

This is garbage. You are talking about getting the ball in front of the defensive line vs getting the ball in the flat or beyond the line of scrimmage, there's no comparison. You're more likely to get hit by more guys and bigger guys on a run, and you're more likely to go out of bounds without getting tackled on a reception

 

Those def lineman, dont hit anywhere near as hard as a Safety with a full head of steam. Getting hit at all takes its toll on the body over time, rushing, or receiving, a tackle is a tackle and its gotta suck after a while.

[MahSoonerz 0]

Sometimes it only takes one carry to end a guy's season.

 

Statistics generally don't tell us the reasons why things happen, but I can say that I am not really worried about LJ breaking down under the strain. I think he is strong enough to handle the load. But I am very worried about his OL and QB situations. It won't matter how good he is if the other 10 guys around him stink.

[devildog 0]

Receptions are generally regarded as 1/2 a touch when figuring these things. Including the playoffs it would be 452 touches for LJ, 400 touches for LT and 391 for Jackson.

[Some Guy 0]

This is why Chris Brown will be a top 5 RB this year. He had almost no touches last year. He's gold!

 

That is, if a team signs him. Otherwise, next year he'll be even better because he'll have had no touches this year!

This is exactly why I see Curtis P. Enis finishing the year with TOP 3 RB numbers if someone picks him up!

[famousb 11]

Those def lineman, dont hit anywhere near as hard as a Safety with a full head of steam. Getting hit at all takes its toll on the body over time, rushing, or receiving, a tackle is a tackle and its gotta suck after a while.

 

you must not have ever done well in Physics class.... Force = Mass x Exceleration. Not to even mention the Angle of Incidence, and Every Action Has an Equal and Opposite Reaction (EAHEOR).

so sure, the DBs are moving faster, but that doesn't mean they are hitting w/ more force. For a 200 lb S to have the same force in a hit as a 380 LB DT, he needs to be moving at nearly TWICE the speed. Now, also figure in that DBs don't hit RBs head on after most receptions (usually hit at some sort of an angle), as opposed to plowing head-on into an LB going straight up the gut, and the speed factor is already changed (two objects moving directly at each other is a much greater force than two objects that moving at different angles that collide).

Now also EAHEOR will tell you that when a DB hits a RB in the open field, and there is no one else there, the opposite reaction is the energy transferring out the back of one of the players (or side, dependant upon angle). Where as when an RB is going straight up the gut, there is not always a chance for an opposite reaction due to being blocked in from multiple sides, which causes a rebound effect of that energy, making the RB absorb much more of a force in his own body. Don't believe it? Go hold a piece of paper in mid air and punch it with all of your might, then put the same piece of paper on a brick wall and punch it again... come back and tell me which one hurts worse...

 

Final statement: If you don't think that going up the gut is tougher than going outside and doesn't create more chance of injury, explain to me why lineman have many more knee surgeries, injuries, and overall shorter careers than DBs....