6th Annual Jetdoc Mock

[Fumbleweed 547]

 

taken too early - palmer. if you go WR here, you would get comparable value at QB witht he 10th pick in Rd 4 and another tradable big name WR.

 

 

 

Unless you took a look at the WRs and went . What WR would I have picked there? I'm assuming you mean Fitzgerald, but I am not high on him at all. Boldin? Williams? I think I can find comparable value to those guys later on.

 

The value at WR just wasn't there for me. Fitzgerald is ranked high enough by most people to warrant that pick, but I'm just not real high on him.

 

As for "comparable" value at QB, that remains to be seen.

[ShaneFalco 0]

4. Then taking Bush that early makes absolutely no sense to me.

 

I'm interested to know what RBs you would have taken before Bush, and why exactly the pick makes "absolutely no sense." Reggie posted 1300 total yards and 8TDs last year as a rookie and should improve in his second year.

[remote controller 143]

Jones-Drew went in the 2nd round? I bet Remote Control could easily have waited til the third and he'd still have been available.

 

Jones - Drew rushed for 950 last year with a 5.7 ypc, collecting 13 rushing Td's. He caught 46 passes for another 400+ yards and 2 td's. 1300 yards and 15 Td's is okay in my book. What did Portis accomplish, and did Betts do pretty good replacing him??? Jones-Drew is currently #16 in my board, and is on a team commited to run. I am confident his role won't shrink and also confident Fred's role won't increase. I was happy to land him late in the 2nd.

 

Also know he would have been gone before the 3rd, so landing him later than the 2nd is a pipe dream.

[GobbleDog 997]

I'm interested to know what RBs you would have taken before Bush, and why exactly the pick makes "absolutely no sense." Reggie posted 1300 total yards and 8TDs last year as a rookie and should improve in his second year.

I knew that would piss someone off.

 

Ok, to be totally honest... I was shooting from the hip and hadn't really gone over Bush's stats too closely. But now that I'm looking at the stats I have to say that I didn't realize Bush had 88 receptions for 742 rec yards last year! That's incredible.

 

Unfortunately Bush only amassed 565 rushing yards due to that RBBC situation. With Duece still there, I assume that number won't change much - maybe a slight increase. On the other hand, I don't see any reason why his receptions would change drastically. The guy clearly has talent catching the ball out of the backfield and I'd expect the Saints to keep exploiting that. And he'll probably finish with 8+- TDs again.

 

If this was a ppr draft, I'd admit Bush might be worth that 2nd round pick. But without the reception points, there were a bunch of mediocre RBs last year who put up 1,200+ total yards with nearly similar TDs such as: Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, Thomas Jones, Warrick Dunn, etc. Similar type mediocre RBs could have been had later in the draft instead of using a 2nd round pick. Obviously you're predicting a much bigger increase in Bush's stats than I do. That's cool.

 

I would have taken Harrison or Holt with that pick instead.

[remote controller 143]

I knew that would piss someone off.

 

Ok, to be totally honest... I was shooting from the hip and hadn't really gone over Bush's stats too closely. But now that I'm looking at the stats I have to say that I didn't realize Bush had 88 receptions for 742 rec yards last year! That's incredible.

 

Unfortunately Bush only amassed 565 rushing yards due to that RBBC situation. With Duece still there, I assume that number won't change much - maybe a slight increase. On the other hand, I don't see any reason why his receptions would change drastically. The guy clearly has talent catching the ball out of the backfield and I'd expect the Saints to keep exploiting that. And he'll probably finish with 8+- TDs again.

 

If this was a ppr draft, I'd admit Bush might be worth that 2nd round pick. But without the reception points, there were a bunch of mediocre RBs last year who put up 1,200+ total yards with nearly similar TDs such as: Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, Thomas Jones, Warrick Dunn, etc. Similar type mediocre RBs could have been had later in the draft instead of using a 2nd round pick. Obviously you're predicting a much bigger increase in Bush's stats than I do. That's cool.

 

I would have taken Harrison or Holt with that pick instead.

What about 16 total Td's out of Jones-Drew? He also returned a kick off.

[GobbleDog 997]

What about 16 total Td's out of Jones-Drew? He also returned a kick off.

C'mon now. What are the odds of him getting 16 total Tds again? I mean I admit the dude is talented, but let's be honest 16 Tds is A LOT of damn Tds especially when a player is in a RBBC situation. No way he repeats that.

 

So let's say he only gets 10 total TDs next year (which I think is still giving him the benefit of the doubt considering Taylor is still there), what else does he give ya? 1,300 total yards again? That's solid, but I stick by what I said... he probably would have been available for your 3rd pick.

 

I'm not saying the pick was insane, just a little bit early IMO.

 

Jones - Drew rushed for 950 last year with a 5.7 ypc, collecting 13 rushing Td's. He caught 46 passes for another 400+ yards and 2 td's. 1300 yards and 15 Td's is okay in my book. What did Portis accomplish, and did Betts do pretty good replacing him??? Jones-Drew is currently #16 in my board, and is on a team commited to run. I am confident his role won't shrink and also confident Fred's role won't increase. I was happy to land him late in the 2nd.

 

Also know he would have been gone before the 3rd, so landing him later than the 2nd is a pipe dream.

He posted incredible numbers for a rookie. I wonder if he may have set people's expectations for next year a little higher than they should be. I'm expecting him to "fall back to Earth" so to speak... especially with Taylor still there and producing.

[remote controller 143]

C'mon now. What are the odds of him getting 16 total Tds again? I mean I admit the dude is talented, but let's be honest 16 Tds is A LOT of damn Tds especially when a player is in a RBBC situation. No way he repeats that.

 

So let's say he only gets 10 total TDs next year (which I think is still giving him the benefit of the doubt considering Taylor is still there), what else does he give ya? 1,300 total yards again? That's solid, but I stick by what I said... he probably would have been available for your 3rd pick.

 

I'm not saying the pick was insane, just a little bit early IMO.

He posted incredible numbers for a rookie. I wonder if he may have set people's expectations for next year a little higher than they should be. I'm expecting him to "fall back to Earth" so to speak... especially with Taylor still there and producing.

I understand you but you gotta admit your response was a bit weak. He did what he did, and to say he won't approach it again is a little naive. Do you feel Fred will be moreactive, less active, or the same?

 

One thing I am confident of is his usage and yardage. They will go up. I have him at 1500 combined and 12 Td's. That is a #2 back we all would love.

 

Also, as discussed in the comment thread, he would have been gone, as two others were gonna take him.

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

Vikings4ever - except I think he could have done better than Benson with that 3rd round pick. I would have taken another elite WR there.

 

I actually disagree with that. I thought that the Benson pick was the best value pick of the three rounds (he was the 19th RB picked, if I counted correctly), and to me the team of LT2, Holt, and Benson is the best of the bunch. I'd put Jetdoc (Addai, Smith, Boldin), NAn (Maroney, James, Driver) and Fumbleweed (LJ, Harrison, Palmer) up there too. If Portis gets 250+ carries, then DaBomb's got a dangerous team too.

 

My $0.02.

[ShaneFalco 0]

I knew that would piss someone off.

 

Ok, to be totally honest... I was shooting from the hip and hadn't really gone over Bush's stats too closely. But now that I'm looking at the stats I have to say that I didn't realize Bush had 88 receptions for 742 rec yards last year! That's incredible.

 

Unfortunately Bush only amassed 565 rushing yards due to that RBBC situation. With Duece still there, I assume that number won't change much - maybe a slight increase. On the other hand, I don't see any reason why his receptions would change drastically. The guy clearly has talent catching the ball out of the backfield and I'd expect the Saints to keep exploiting that. And he'll probably finish with 8+- TDs again.

 

If this was a ppr draft, I'd admit Bush might be worth that 2nd round pick. But without the reception points, there were a bunch of mediocre RBs last year who put up 1,200+ total yards with nearly similar TDs such as: Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, Thomas Jones, Warrick Dunn, etc. Similar type mediocre RBs could have been had later in the draft instead of using a 2nd round pick. Obviously you're predicting a much bigger increase in Bush's stats than I do. That's cool.

 

I would have taken Harrison or Holt with that pick instead.

 

thanks for the honest response, I appreciate it

 

I guess we'll agree that we have different projections for bush.

 

1,300 total yards and 8TDs is nothing to scoff at especially for a rookie season splitting time. I'm not predicting a huge increase, but I think 10+ and 1,500 total yards is attainable, maybe more. I see New Orleans giving the ball to Reggie a little more with Horn gone, and I think he'll get more reps at running back too. For me he's a better value in the mid-to late second than guys like Addai or Maroney, who went way higher than Bush did.

[GobbleDog 997]

5. I considered going Wayne or Fitzgerald at 3.01, but decided I'd like the crop of WRs at the 4.12/5.01 turn a hell of a lot better than the RBs that would be there.

Ok, I've crunched some numbers (yes I have no life).

 

Prior to your 3.01 pick: 18 RBs were gone and 5 WRs were gone.

 

Prior to your 4.12 pick: 5 additional RBs were gone (not including your Benson pick) and 14 additional WRs were gone.

 

So the question is - is the point difference between the 19th best RB and the 24th best RB MORE OR LESS than the point difference between the 6th best WR and the 20th best WR ???? Based on my league's points (ending in week 16):

 

The 19th best RB scored 196.0 points and the 24th best RB scored 177.7 points equating to a difference of 18.3 points.

 

The 6th best WR scored 260.7 points and the 20th best WR scored 205.2 points equating to a difference of 55.5 points.

 

That's a pretty substantial difference. And on top of that, the earlier WR pick would have been more likely to finish closer to where you actually picked them. Meaning theoretically it would have been smarter to pick the best available WR at 3.01 instead of the Benson. Thank you.

 

[Vikings4ever 550]

Ok, I've crunched some numbers (yes I have no life).

 

Prior to your 3.01 pick: 18 RBs were gone and 5 WRs were gone.

 

Prior to your 4.12 pick: 5 additional RBs were gone (not including your Benson pick) and 14 additional WRs were gone.

 

So the question is - is the point difference between the 19th best RB and the 24th best RB MORE OR LESS than the point difference between the 6th best WR and the 20th best WR ???? Based on my league's points (ending in week 16):

 

The 19th best RB scored 196.0 points and the 24th best RB scored 177.7 points equating to a difference of 18.3 points.

 

The 6th best WR scored 260.7 points and the 20th best WR scored 205.2 points equating to a difference of 55.5 points.

 

That's a pretty substantial difference. And on top of that, the earlier WR pick would have been more likely to finish closer to where you actually picked them. Meaning theoretically it would have been smarter to pick the best available WR at 3.01 instead of the Benson. Thank you.

 

In retrospect, I'd have gone Holt/Fitzgerald, then grabbed Lewis and Green at the next turn.

 

This is my first mock of the year, so this is the one that gives me a general feel of how things are going to go down.

[GobbleDog 997]

In retrospect, I'd have gone Holt/Fitzgerald, then grabbed Lewis and Green at the next turn.

 

This is my first mock of the year, so this is the one that gives me a general feel of how things are going to go down.

Point wise, that's the smart move due to the fact that only 5+- RBs will be taken between those draft picks, while 14+- WRs will be taken between those picks. Which is generally typical of most drafts.

 

5 fewer RBs available doesn't make much a point impact at that point in the draft. But 14 fewer WRs makes a huge point impact.