Frank Gore v Joseph Addai

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

I have the option to keep one of these guys. If I keep Gore, I sacrifice a ninth round pick this year, and I can only keep him for this year.

 

If I keep Addai, I would be sacrificing an 8th round pick this year. However, I would have the option to keep him again next year under our league rules.

 

The picture here gets muddled with our keeper rules. You can keep 2 guys from the previous year. However, they cannot play the same position, and only one keeper can be a rookie.

 

For my other keeper selection, I can keep Colston (giving up a ninth round pick this year) or Carson Palmer (sacrifice a 6th round pick this year).

 

With that all said, here are the three bundles I can roll with:

Gore and Colston (giving up 8th and 9th round picks this year) or

Addai and Palmer (giving up 6th and 8th round picks this year) or

Gore and Palmer (giving up 6th and 8th round picks this year)

 

At this point, I'm leaning towards Addai and Palmer. I believe both guys are top 30 picks in this year's draft. With that said, I would be able to secure at least 5 top 30 picks on my roster while having the ability to keep Addai for another year.

 

My question: which pair would you roll with and why?

[Ras66not99 0]

I have the option to keep one of these guys. If I keep Gore, I sacrifice a ninth round pick this year, and I can only keep him for this year.

 

If I keep Addai, I would be sacrificing an 8th round pick this year. However, I would have the option to keep him again next year under our league rules.

 

The picture here gets muddled with our keeper rules. You can keep 2 guys from the previous year. However, they cannot play the same position, and only one keeper can be a rookie.

 

For my other keeper selection, I can keep Colston (giving up a ninth round pick this year) or Carson Palmer (sacrifice a 6th round pick this year).

 

With that all said, here are the three bundles I can roll with:

Gore and Colston (giving up 8th and 9th round picks this year) or

Addai and Palmer (giving up 6th and 8th round picks this year) or

Gore and Palmer (giving up 6th and 8th round picks this year)

 

At this point, I'm leaning towards Addai and Palmer. I believe both guys are top 30 picks in this year's draft. With that said, I would be able to secure at least 5 top 30 picks on my roster while having the ability to keep Addai for another year.

 

My question: which pair would you roll with and why?

I'd go Palmer and Addai also.... for the simple reason like you said you can keep Addai next year as well.... Hell I'd take Addai over Gore straight up without the option, but that's me... Colston is a bit of a risk even though that offense is scary over there in New Orleans so he may be worth the risk.... only problem is you don't want "risk" when you're dealing with your keepers... take the sure things

[football_scooter 0]

I have the option to keep one of these guys. If I keep Gore, I sacrifice a ninth round pick this year, and I can only keep him for this year.

 

If I keep Addai, I would be sacrificing an 8th round pick this year. However, I would have the option to keep him again next year under our league rules.

 

The picture here gets muddled with our keeper rules. You can keep 2 guys from the previous year. However, they cannot play the same position, and only one keeper can be a rookie.

 

For my other keeper selection, I can keep Colston (giving up a ninth round pick this year) or Carson Palmer (sacrifice a 6th round pick this year).

 

With that all said, here are the three bundles I can roll with:

Gore and Colston (giving up 8th and 9th round picks this year) or

Addai and Palmer (giving up 6th and 8th round picks this year) or

Gore and Palmer (giving up 6th and 8th round picks this year)

 

At this point, I'm leaning towards Addai and Palmer. I believe both guys are top 30 picks in this year's draft. With that said, I would be able to secure at least 5 top 30 picks on my roster while having the ability to keep Addai for another year.

 

My question: which pair would you roll with and why?

 

Palmer/Addai is my pick here as well, mainly because of the 2nd year option. Any time you can lock up a solid young RB in a rock solid offense like the Colts you have to do it.

 

Bear in mind that I say this with the firm belief that Gore may well be be slightly more valuable than Addai in 2007. But since you can't keep him in 2008 the decision becomes a lot easier.

 

Palmer is a top 2 RB. Colston, while a terrific young player, is not in the 1st tier of WRs. That makes it an easier decision to me. Take the premier QB over the 2nd/3rd tier WR.

[DA GM 0]

Nice problem to have... addai and palmer hands down... i like gore but he scares me with the injury history...addai is on a much better offense than gore which takes a lot of pressure off of him as a runner IMO.....palmer is the closet you can get to manning and that helps!!! IMO-- yes the theroy is true that you can get a QB latter but rember you get what you pay for...manning and palmer are a good bet each week to get 2-3 tds and if you 6 point a throw plus bonus points for distance tds its all good.... your post has helped me answer my own sitituion ...I have the option to keep either addai for a 4th round pick or maroney for a 7th round pick this year...I have the 7 th pick overall this year my league is 12 deep...Palmer will be there at 7 and I should get a shot at a good back at 2-06 to go with palmer and addai or maroney....with good prospects at 3-07....right now im leaning toward moreny due to the value and his offense is solid like addai no pressure on him to due to his team mates...IMO.....

[Raider 84 29]

That's a nice problem to have. They are both great rb's, but I'd go with Addai for the fact you can keep him next year and your going to lose Gore.

[The_Mad_Cats 0]

Another vote for Palmer and Addai. Colts offense is going to continue to roll and Palmer will be 100 percent back next year. I had Gore this year and loved watching him pile up the points, but with Norv Turner gone, I look for a decline in Gore's stats and opportunities this coming year.

[Walter34 3]

Palmer/Addai is my pick here as well, mainly because of the 2nd year option. Any time you can lock up a solid young RB in a rock solid offense like the Colts you have to do it.

 

Bear in mind that I say this with the firm belief that Gore may well be be slightly more valuable than Addai in 2007. But since you can't keep him in 2008 the decision becomes a lot easier.

 

Palmer is a top 2 RB. Colston, while a terrific young player, is not in the 1st tier of WRs. That makes it an easier decision to me. Take the premier QB over the 2nd/3rd tier WR.

 

yeah, what he said.

[DaveJ 0]

Another vote for Addai and Palmer simply because you can keep him another year. Gore, in my opinion, will be the better fantasy back this year because he has more TD potential. That is not a knock on Addai but simply the offense they run. With SF, Gore will be in a position to run for more TD's than Indy has just because they are a throw first offense.

[Fozzy4 0]

I'm a bit surprised there was any question here as to which RB you would keep. The SF offense is still growing, and I think as a result defenses are able to key on Gore more. With everyone getting enough of a look at him last year to prepare for him this year, I really think it will take considerable improvements in the passing game to open up Gore's running opportunities, at least for him to achieve the value of where he's getting drafted. Addai, OTOH, showed big potential last year, and has the benefit of being integrated into an already veteran passing game. He may have a little more room to grow than Gore does, but he starts out in a more favorable position because of his team's brilliant passing attack, which should draw defensive heat away from him. Another consideration for me was Gore's poor ball-handling this past season. People will tell you the issue is dead, but it's just another question mark until he proves it this season. If he gets a case of the fumbles again, that will translate into a lot of missed fantasy opportunities. I'm sure those who owned Gore before know what I'm talking about. It must be rough to have your guy benched in the red zone because he keeps coughing up the ball right when he's about to score. I'm not saying he'll do that again necessarily, but it's certainly something to consider when making a decision like this.

[Gepetto 989]

Gore is a very explosive player and has a chance to be a top 3 RB in 2007. Gore is the first option on his team, an improving SF offense. Addai is the 4th option on his team, although the Colts are the best offense. Addai could finish anywhere from top 10 - 20 rb.

 

I realize you can only keep Gore for one year, but you've got to go for the championship, not try to finish 2nd or 3rd for the next two years.

 

Palmer is a top 2 QB.

 

I'd go Gore and Palmer.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

Much obliged to all for the opinions.

 

I'm going with my gut and go with Palmer/Addai.

 

I just harken back to Edge when he was a 2nd year back with Indy, and I think Addai can put up similar numbers. Besides, after looking at a fantasy mag over the weekend, Addai and Palmer were both ranked in the top 15 with Addai just behind Gore in the overall rankings.

 

After looking over those rankings, I'm going to have 4 top 20 players on my roster after the first 2 rounds are over. Needless to say, it's a good start.

[Road_Cats 1]

Gore is a very explosive player and has a chance to be a top 3 RB in 2007. Gore is the first option on his team, an improving SF offense. Addai is the 4th option on his team, although the Colts are the best offense. Addai could finish anywhere from top 10 - 20 rb.

 

I realize you can only keep Gore for one year, but you've got to go for the championship, not try to finish 2nd or 3rd for the next two years.

 

Palmer is a top 2 QB.

 

I'd go Gore and Palmer.

WOW High oin Gore are we ? What makes you think they run first ? Turner is gone as OC. They got what at WR other than V.Davis at TE who Ilike. D.Jackson has not played a full nfl season for at least 2 years and is on the beginning of his downside years. You be lucky if gore produces like he did last year. Naw Addai you say is the fourth option who's the third? As everyone should be understanding with that offense and because of that offense they produce decent RB numbers. I see 10 plus running td's with 2 rec td,s Addai has the real chance to be the #rd best fantasy back this year.

 

Palmer and Addai who cares who and why you get to keep them for the following year take these two win now and later.

[J5 0]

Not to hijack this thread but as far as Addai goes, where do you guys rank him this year. I need to decide between LJ and Addai.

[football_scooter 0]

Gore is a very explosive player and has a chance to be a top 3 RB in 2007. Gore is the first option on his team, an improving SF offense. Addai is the 4th option on his team, although the Colts are the best offense. Addai could finish anywhere from top 10 - 20 rb.

Addai 10th-20th RB?

 

Addai the 4th option on his team?

 

Right - because the Colts never run to set up the pass. They hate running a balanced offense when they have a fresh young RB.

 

This is a really, really dumb post. And I am high on Gore/SF too. But your premise is wildly inaccurate with regards to Addai.

 

I realize you can only keep Gore for one year, but you've got to go for the championship, not try to finish 2nd or 3rd for the next two years.

 

And taking Addai over Gore is going to knock him back 2 places in the standings for the next 2-3 years?

 

With every post, you seem to bring more irony to you signature.

[mdm_1971 0]

WOW High oin Gore are we ? What makes you think they run first ? Turner is gone as OC. They got what at WR other than V.Davis at TE who Ilike. D.Jackson has not played a full nfl season for at least 2 years and is on the beginning of his downside years. You be lucky if gore produces like he did last year. Naw Addai you say is the fourth option who's the third? As everyone should be understanding with that offense and because of that offense they produce decent RB numbers. I see 10 plus running td's with 2 rec td,s Addai has the real chance to be the #rd best fantasy back this year.

 

Palmer and Addai who cares who and why you get to keep them for the following year take these two win now and later.

I love how everbody thinks because Turner is gone Gore will slip.......well that is the reason that the 49ers kept the qb coach to be the offense cooridator....... so smith will keep building and the offense will be the same because he was there w/ Turner...... I would take Palmer and gore if i could keep Gore next year as well..... addai and palmer for sure since you get to keep addai again next year that is the only reason i would take addai over Gore

[Gepetto 989]

Addai 10th-20th RB?

 

Addai the 4th option on his team?

 

Right - because the Pats never run to set up the pass. They hate running a balanced offense when they have a fresh young RB.

 

This is a really, really dumb post. And I am high on Gore/SF too. But your premise is wildly inaccurate with regards to Addai.

And taking Addai over Gore is going to knock him back 2 places in the standings for the next 2-3 years?

 

With every post, you seem to bring more irony to you signature.

 

I don't really understand what Addai has to do with the Pats since he plays for the Colts. And my analyses will be proven by the stats at seasons end, regardless that you or anyone else disagrees.

[CookieG 4]

This isn't even a tough call. Sacrificing a 6th round pick for a stud QB? If Palmer was very productive last year just off the knee injury.. he's gonna be better this year.

 

Your in great shape dude.. Palmer & Addai is a really nice way to go into your draft. I like Addai over Gore because it's the Colts O over a still work in progress SF O.. Gore also showed some durability issues and Addai was kept a lot fresher with D. Rhodes taking those carries.

 

I like Frank Gore's upside more.. he's really their only great weapon.. but i worry about him breaking down.

[football_scooter 0]

I don't really understand what Addai has to do with the Pats since he plays for the Colts. And my analyses will be proven by the stats at seasons end, regardless that you or anyone else disagrees.

 

I mistyped - I was looking at another topic about Maroney so the Pats were fresh in mind - whatever. the point remains. Your statement of Addai being a 10th-20th best RB is idiotic at best.

 

In case you failed to notice, every single person here except you believes that Addai will be the better back to keep, and 2 of us are Niners fans.

 

That would either make you the smartest, or the dumbest person posting in this topic. Itsatip.

[Fozzy4 0]

I don't really understand what Addai has to do with the Pats since he plays for the Colts. And my analyses will be proven by the stats at seasons end, regardless that you or anyone else disagrees.

 

Oh of course your analysis will be right. [/sarcasm]

 

You do realize that Addai was 11th RB already last year, don't you? He only had 226 touches last year, less than everyone in the top 10 save Jones-Drew. If you combine his touches with Rhodes' touches from last year, and instead scale up Addai's numbers by that amount, he would be projected for an extra 186 touches, for 412 total. At his 06 rate, that would be about .83 FFPts per carry, which projects to a total of 343.82 pts if he had all 412 of those carries. That would've made him the 2nd RB last year behind only LT2. Even if you only assume his workload goes up to 295 (the current FFToday projection), maintaining last year's pace would project him for 246.18 pts, which puts him squarely in 6th. And all that is assuming he doesn't get any better, which is frankly a ridiculous assumption to make. He will get better, but the point is that even if he doesn't, he should still be the #6 RB overall. Trying to say he'll be 10-20th when he was 11th last year as part of a committee but will go largely solo this year is not only ridiculous, it is totally naive.

[Gepetto 989]

Oh of course your analysis will be right. [/sarcasm]

 

You do realize that Addai was 11th RB already last year, don't you? He only had 226 touches last year, less than everyone in the top 10 save Jones-Drew. If you combine his touches with Rhodes' touches from last year, and instead scale up Addai's numbers by that amount, he would be projected for an extra 186 touches, for 412 total. At his 06 rate, that would be about .83 FFPts per carry, which projects to a total of 343.82 pts if he had all 412 of those carries. That would've made him the 2nd RB last year behind only LT2. Even if you only assume his workload goes up to 295 (the current FFToday projection), maintaining last year's pace would project him for 246.18 pts, which puts him squarely in 6th. And all that is assuming he doesn't get any better, which is frankly a ridiculous assumption to make. He will get better, but the point is that even if he doesn't, he should still be the #6 RB overall. Trying to say he'll be 10-20th when he was 11th last year as part of a committee but will go largely solo this year is not only ridiculous, it is totally naive.

 

He wasn't even a quality #2 weekly RB last year; one game bumped his season stats a decent amount. He will be a good #1 this year though. However, even if he did finish in the top 5 or so, and even if he was #4 and Gore #3 I think the point differential would be significant, possibly 75 - 100 points. And someone who agrees with me: Chris Smith FBG Running Back Projections 2007

[football_scooter 0]

Oh of course your analysis will be right. [/sarcasm]

 

You do realize that Addai was 11th RB already last year, don't you? He only had 226 touches last year, less than everyone in the top 10 save Jones-Drew. If you combine his touches with Rhodes' touches from last year, and instead scale up Addai's numbers by that amount, he would be projected for an extra 186 touches, for 412 total. At his 06 rate, that would be about .83 FFPts per carry, which projects to a total of 343.82 pts if he had all 412 of those carries. That would've made him the 2nd RB last year behind only LT2. Even if you only assume his workload goes up to 295 (the current FFToday projection), maintaining last year's pace would project him for 246.18 pts, which puts him squarely in 6th. And all that is assuming he doesn't get any better, which is frankly a ridiculous assumption to make. He will get better, but the point is that even if he doesn't, he should still be the #6 RB overall. Trying to say he'll be 10-20th when he was 11th last year as part of a committee but will go largely solo this year is not only ridiculous, it is totally naive.

 

 

Amusing to see Gepetto respond since he was so thoroughly pwnd here.

 

Nice going rook - glad to see someone using stats realistically for a change.

 

So Gepetto - please explain to us again how Addai will be 10th-20th at best, when he was already 11th in 2006, and will see between 50%-75% more touches. That math doesn't seem to add up.

 

So essentially you're saying that when Addai goes from 226 touches to 300-400 touches he will somehow be less productive?

 

And someone who agrees with me: Chris Smith FBG Running Back Projections 2007

 

Football Guys

 

Worth noting, they have Willie Parker at 6th, and then uh, Adrian Peterson as the 7th best RB. RBBC with no QB, and AP is going to be better than Addai. Yeah.

 

I realize these are their "dynasty" rankings, but no way either FWP or AP are in better situations than Addai for the foreseeable future.

[Gepetto 989]

Football Guys (IMG:style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)

 

Worth noting, they have Willie Parker at 6th, and then uh, Adrian Peterson as the 7th best RB. RBBC with no QB, and AP is going to be better than Addai. Yeah.

 

I realize these are their "dynasty" rankings, but no way either FWP or AP are in better situations than Addai for the foreseeable future.

 

 

Those are his projections for 2007 (not dynasty rankings). He has Willie Parker #7 and he has Adrian Peterson as #23 RB.

[football_scooter 0]

Those are his projections for 2007 (not dynasty rankings). He has Willie Parker #7 and he has Adrian Peterson as #23 RB.

 

no, what I posted was from their Dynasty ratings page - and Chris has Adrian Peterson at 8, while the other guy has him at 6, which averages out to 7th.

 

Occasionally you might want to try reading someone's post before replying.

 

Just a suggestion, mind you.

[Gepetto 989]

no, what I posted was from their Dynasty ratings page - and Chris has Adrian Peterson at 8, while the other guy has him at 6, which averages out to 7th.

 

Occasionally you might want to try reading someone's post before replying.

 

Just a suggestion, mind you.

 

Whatever dude. You were replying to my posted link and I am talking about '07 projections. In any case Adrian Peterson is going to be better than Addai in Dynasty Leagues. Oh I remember you were the guy saying Kevin Barlow has more talent than Frank Gore... yea, listen to this guy

[Stalker711 0]

This whole topic is cracking me up.

 

Addai is the better keeper because you can keep him for '08 too. That sure isn't doing a whole lot for '07 for you. Taking a less talented back because you can keep him longer doesn't work well for me.

 

How many backs run for over 5 ypc and 300+ carries in a year? A couple special players. LT2 last year on his epic season, Jamal Lewis during his 2k season in 2003, Tiki Barber last season, SA during his record setting 2005 campaign, Terrell Davis during his 2k season in 1998 Those are the off-hand big ones.

 

It is very rare to find a three down back that runs to the tune of 5.4 ypc over a season. Frank Gore is one of those rare backs.

 

I just cannot imagine losing a special back like Frank Gore to keep a prospect like Joseph Addai. SF had no offense outside of Gore last year, and he still managed to embarrass teams who knew he was getting the ball every play and still couldn't stop him.

 

Those of you who really think that Tony Dungy is a liar, and is going to give Addai 350 carries this season are really making a leap of faith, IMO. Most feature backs' YPC decrease under increased workload. Part of this is due to garnering the SY/GL carries, more opportunities for injury, etc.. To say that Addai will increase his level of productivity (presumed to be YPC) of 4.8 YPC under an increased workload is pure hyperbole.

 

Addai is a fine young back. He has the skill set to be a solid RB1 for your FF team in '07. To go farther and say that he's a top 5 or 6 back despite never having done it before is more than i'm willing to offer up.

 

The argument is not any different than the one being made for Laurence Maroney. He had a terrific rookie season, playing very well until a shoulder injury zapped his chances at a 1k season in relief of a very productive Corey Dillon. To say Maroney is going to have 1,200 yards and 12 TDs (as I've seen numerous times) and saying he's the 12th to 14th RB while Addai is going to elevate to the top 6 is a stretch. Maroney was outproducing Addai until the shoulder injury, and was all but assured a 1k season before that.

 

Hope keeping Addai over Gore works out for you. Gepetto might be going about the argument wrong, but his basic premise that keeping Addai over Gore is a bad idea is valid.

[football_scooter 0]

To say that Addai will increase his level of productivity (presumed to be YPC) of 4.8 YPC under an increased workload is pure hyperbole.

 

No one is saying this. What people are saying is that assuming the same or slightly decreased YPC, it is likely that his overall numbers will increase with another +/- 100 carries.

 

No one said his YPC would increase.

 

But it would seem fairly obvious that a guy at 226 carries with a 4.8 ave and ends up with 1084 yds would benefit from another 100 carries. Even if as you suggest he sees a decrease in ypc (which I am suspect of, since he's a fresh young back playing is a wide open offense) I still can't see how his overall totals cause him to go from 11th overall to "10-20" range.

 

Even if he does decrease productivity and has something like a 4.5 ypc ave, with 326 carries, he'll top 1400 RuYd.

 

Going out on a limb here, but I'm guessing that will put him in the top 10.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

This whole topic is cracking me up.

 

Addai is the better keeper because you can keep him for '08 too. That sure isn't doing a whole lot for '07 for you. Taking a less talented back because you can keep him longer doesn't work well for me.

 

How many backs run for over 5 ypc and 300+ carries in a year? A couple special players. LT2 last year on his epic season, Jamal Lewis during his 2k season in 2003, Tiki Barber last season, SA during his record setting 2005 campaign, Terrell Davis during his 2k season in 1998 Those are the off-hand big ones.

 

It is very rare to find a three down back that runs to the tune of 5.4 ypc over a season. Frank Gore is one of those rare backs.

 

I just cannot imagine losing a special back like Frank Gore to keep a prospect like Joseph Addai. SF had no offense outside of Gore last year, and he still managed to embarrass teams who knew he was getting the ball every play and still couldn't stop him.

 

Those of you who really think that Tony Dungy is a liar, and is going to give Addai 350 carries this season are really making a leap of faith, IMO. Most feature backs' YPC decrease under increased workload. Part of this is due to garnering the SY/GL carries, more opportunities for injury, etc.. To say that Addai will increase his level of productivity (presumed to be YPC) of 4.8 YPC under an increased workload is pure hyperbole.

 

Addai is a fine young back. He has the skill set to be a solid RB1 for your FF team in '07. To go farther and say that he's a top 5 or 6 back despite never having done it before is more than i'm willing to offer up.

 

The argument is not any different than the one being made for Laurence Maroney. He had a terrific rookie season, playing very well until a shoulder injury zapped his chances at a 1k season in relief of a very productive Corey Dillon. To say Maroney is going to have 1,200 yards and 12 TDs (as I've seen numerous times) and saying he's the 12th to 14th RB while Addai is going to elevate to the top 6 is a stretch. Maroney was outproducing Addai until the shoulder injury, and was all but assured a 1k season before that.

 

Hope keeping Addai over Gore works out for you. Gepetto might be going about the argument wrong, but his basic premise that keeping Addai over Gore is a bad idea is valid.

 

Gee, sorry for insulting your intelligence. I bow to your greatness.

 

If you read my other comments, I am tracking Addai's stats to what Edge did in his second year. Look at Edge's 2nd year numbers. How close to you think they track compared to Gore?

[Mackgee 0]

I think you should keep the Mcnabb/Westbrook combo. You may be able to win the most games lost to injuries league. HTH

[harken34 0]

Joseph Addai

[DankNuggs 305]

good.... your post has helped me answer my own sitituion ...I have the option to keep either addai for a 4th round pick or maroney for a 7th round pick this year...I have the 7 th pick overall this year my league is 12 deep...Palmer will be there at 7 and I should get a shot at a good back at 2-06 to go with palmer and addai or maroney....with good prospects at 3-07....right now im leaning toward moreny due to the value and his offense is solid like addai no pressure on him to due to his team mates...IMO.....

Maroney and it isn't even CLOSE. Think of the type of player you can get in the 4th, vs 7th. Maroney has a good chance to outproduce Addai this year regardless of keeper position.

 

Tough call, I'd definitely go palmer, Gore.

 

If you can lock up Addai in 08 for an 8th rounder it makes it harder, but there is a high likelihood you'll have another good keeper next year, i wouldn't worry two years down the road.

 

I think Gore will outproduce Addai, but you can make arguments the other way, and it is pretty close.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

Maroney and it isn't even CLOSE. Think of the type of player you can get in the 4th, vs 7th. Maroney has a good chance to outproduce Addai this year regardless of keeper position.

 

Tough call, I'd definitely go palmer, Gore.

 

If you can lock up Addai in 08 for an 8th rounder it makes it harder, but there is a high likelihood you'll have another good keeper next year, i wouldn't worry two years down the road.

 

I think Gore will outproduce Addai, but you can make arguments the other way, and it is pretty close.

 

I believe there are slight differences between Maroney's situation and Addai's situation.

 

The Indy offense is a proven commodity, they have a history that's trackable, and they had Edge in that offense who put up enormous numbers.

 

The New England offense will be just as explosive, however there are newly added commoditys to the offense. With that said, one would assume that Brady's numbers will explode with two elite WRs, in which one would have to ask what that does to Maroney's chances.

 

Be that as it may, I'm basing my forecast for Addai within 105 of Edge's total numbers in his 2nd year with the Colts. With Maroney, can one forecast his '07 numbers based on a Corey Dillon season in the past?

 

Many ways to look at the situation and there is no one right answer, except well after the fact.

[Fozzy4 0]

The New England offense will be just as explosive, however there are newly added commoditys to the offense. With that said, one would assume that Brady's numbers will explode with two elite WRs, in which one would have to ask what that does to Maroney's chances.

 

The answer to which is, his chances look better. People seem to have this false notion that a good passing game means the running game suffers. Generally this is not the case. You just mentioned one case that proves it isn't: Indy. Indy has a HUGE passing game, and look what it has done to the Indy RBs. They've been huge, too. STL has a very good passing game going (though Bruce doesn't get the press that his play warrants), and what has that done to SJax? He sure isn't in the toilet, I'll tell you that. How about Rudi Johnson? The Bengals sure haven't killed their running game with all that passing. The more I watch this game, the more I realize the different parts of offense complement each other as opposed to competing with each other. Good running makes passing more effective, and likewise a menacing passing game opens far more running lanes. My take is that the added receiver talent and improvement to the passing game will make Maroney's job that much easier and more effective, and there's evidence all over the league to make that case.

[Stalker711 0]

No one is saying this. What people are saying is that assuming the same or slightly decreased YPC, it is likely that his overall numbers will increase with another +/- 100 carries.

 

No one said his YPC would increase.

 

But it would seem fairly obvious that a guy at 226 carries with a 4.8 ave and ends up with 1084 yds would benefit from another 100 carries. Even if as you suggest he sees a decrease in ypc (which I am suspect of, since he's a fresh young back playing is a wide open offense) I still can't see how his overall totals cause him to go from 11th overall to "10-20" range.

 

Even if he does decrease productivity and has something like a 4.5 ypc ave, with 326 carries, he'll top 1400 RuYd.

 

Going out on a limb here, but I'm guessing that will put him in the top 10.

More carries gets more yards. Got it. I can work with that.

 

DId I say he would not be a top 10 RB? I said "Addai is a fine young back. He has the skill set to be a solid RB1 for your FF team in '07. To go farther and say that he's a top 5 or 6 back despite never having done it before is more than i'm willing to offer up." In most leagues, 'sold RB1' usually means top 10, maybe 12.

 

Fozzy's fuzzy logic of adding Rhodes' rushing totals to Addai's for some insane number of carries is fatal. Addai couldn't stay healthy for any part of his college career at LSU. Now he's going to tote the rock 400+ times for a coach who is insistent that there will be a 2=back scheme. I don't see that happening.

 

As for Ghost, you are right, you should be sorry for insulting my supra-genius. Comparing Addai to Edge is insulting to Edge. Edgerrin James was an elite running back out of the gate, with two rushing titles in his first two seasons. To try and compare Addai to him discredits James' abilities and efforts in Indy.

 

Addai had 1,081 rushing yards and 7TDs (4 in one game) last season. Edge carried the ball 369 times for 1,553 yards with 62 receptions for 586 yds, and 17 total TDs. To extrapolate Addai's rookie season into a followup season like Edge's second season is Colts Homer blather. In his second season, Edge rushed 387 times for 1,709 yds, and caught 63 passes for 594 yards and 18 total TDs.

 

If you really believe that Addai is going to equal Edge's year 2 performance, then yes, you need to sell the farm to get him in all leagues.

 

I personally can't imagine Addai going from solid rookie campaign to elite NFL star in year two just with the loss of Dominic Rhodes. Will he improve? sure. Will he run like Edge pre-ACL? Pass. I guess I just don't see what the uber homer Ghost is seeing in Addai.

[Fozzy4 0]

Fozzy's fuzzy logic of adding Rhodes' rushing totals to Addai's for some insane number of carries is fatal. Addai couldn't stay healthy for any part of his college career at LSU. Now he's going to tote the rock 400+ times for a coach who is insistent that there will be a 2=back scheme. I don't see that happening.

 

It was supposed to give background for the second estimate based on 295 carries - I don't really think Addai is carrying the ball 400+ times. I didn't think I could just make the jump to 295 carries with his '06 FFPts per carry and have everyone end up on the same page, though, so the initial work is primarily to establish his 06 FFPts per carry as a concept before going on to use it with a more reasonable carry estimate for 07. The biggest point is that it puts him projected for 6th this coming year if he has 295 carries, and that it's a very reasonable estimate since its based entirely on his average performance last year. His growth as a back will likely counterbalance any lowered production due to increased workload, so in theory the estimate should be pretty good.

[football_scooter 0]

I guess I just don't see what the uber homer Ghost is seeing in Addai.

 

Ghost is an Indy fan? Who knew!

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

As for Ghost, you are right, you should be sorry for insulting my supra-genius. Comparing Addai to Edge is insulting to Edge. Edgerrin James was an elite running back out of the gate, with two rushing titles in his first two seasons. To try and compare Addai to him discredits James' abilities and efforts in Indy.

 

Addai had 1,081 rushing yards and 7TDs (4 in one game) last season. Edge carried the ball 369 times for 1,553 yards with 62 receptions for 586 yds, and 17 total TDs. To extrapolate Addai's rookie season into a followup season like Edge's second season is Colts Homer blather. In his second season, Edge rushed 387 times for 1,709 yds, and caught 63 passes for 594 yards and 18 total TDs.

 

If you really believe that Addai is going to equal Edge's year 2 performance, then yes, you need to sell the farm to get him in all leagues.

 

I personally can't imagine Addai going from solid rookie campaign to elite NFL star in year two just with the loss of Dominic Rhodes. Will he improve? sure. Will he run like Edge pre-ACL? Pass. I guess I just don't see what the uber homer Ghost is seeing in Addai.

 

Um, not an Indy fan. Someone I'm expecting you to come back and tell me why I'm an Indy fan, though.

 

Furthermore, if Edge was such an elite back, why did he disappoint in Arizona last year, hmmm?

 

Didn't I also say that I'm using Edge's second year as a basis for Addai's projected totals this year WITHIN 10%, or did you miss that one?

 

Furthermore, in the fantasy mag that I read, Addai's projected totals for this season are very close to what Edge put up in his second year in Indy.

 

Don't like it, start your own thread and fantasy football mag.

 

The answer to which is, his chances look better. People seem to have this false notion that a good passing game means the running game suffers. Generally this is not the case. You just mentioned one case that proves it isn't: Indy. Indy has a HUGE passing game, and look what it has done to the Indy RBs. They've been huge, too. STL has a very good passing game going (though Bruce doesn't get the press that his play warrants), and what has that done to SJax? He sure isn't in the toilet, I'll tell you that. How about Rudi Johnson? The Bengals sure haven't killed their running game with all that passing. The more I watch this game, the more I realize the different parts of offense complement each other as opposed to competing with each other. Good running makes passing more effective, and likewise a menacing passing game opens far more running lanes. My take is that the added receiver talent and improvement to the passing game will make Maroney's job that much easier and more effective, and there's evidence all over the league to make that case.

 

Red zone. I've heard and read things about Brady now having red zone options in the passing game.

 

What separates the good from the great fantasy backs is TDs. IMO, Maroney's good but he MAY NOT be in the best situation as far as scoring alot of TDs.

 

Now, what does play into his favor is that he's on a team that is clearly the best in his own division (and the NFL for that matter), the rest of the division sucks, so one would think Brady and the passing game builds early leads, which means it's run, run, run.

 

Run and pass are co-dependent on each other, no doubt about it. However, one must factor in the defense as well, because typically the defense is setting the table for field position, etc.

[Dan 59]

I'd be really torn with the decision you were left with, Ghost. I think that the Addai/Palmer combo will work for you, but frankly, what was the bad decision? I think either way, this topic becomes nit-picky. It's a point of preference. I get the second year argument, although I'm not sure that would have had much effect on my own decision, as even within dynasty my first eye is always on this year. Wow. Nice lineup to be working with. If you draft like this consistently, then I can't think that the second year would be that much of a factor, as you would find yourself with another outstanding keeper next year.

 

Unless you doubt yourself . . .

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

I'd be really torn with the decision you were left with, Ghost. I think that the Addai/Palmer combo will work for you, but frankly, what was the bad decision? I think either way, this topic becomes nit-picky. It's a point of preference. I get the second year argument, although I'm not sure that would have had much effect on my own decision, as even within dynasty my first eye is always on this year. Wow. Nice lineup to be working with. If you draft like this consistently, then I can't think that the second year would be that much of a factor, as you would find yourself with another outstanding keeper next year.

 

Unless you doubt yourself . . .

 

Thanks. I am by no means complaining. I just need some semblance of analysis in making a choice.

 

Back story: #1 pick last year, took SA. My team starts 0-5. Trade a combination of players (including SA) for Gore and Palmer (thinking I would keep Palmer for the following year). Team turns it around, I make the playoffs in my league, lose in the semi-finals thanks to Willie Parker.

 

Had Parker not gone off like that, I would have won the championship. So the "almost" story here could have been making a trade to win a championship AND setting myself up to repeat this year.

 

I'm in a 10 team league, so at the very worst, I'll have 4 top 20 guys on my roster before the season starts. I'll take that.

[Dan 59]

Thanks. I am by no means complaining. I just need some semblance of analysis in making a choice.

 

Back story: #1 pick last year, took SA. My team starts 0-5. Trade a combination of players (including SA) for Gore and Palmer (thinking I would keep Palmer for the following year). Team turns it around, I make the playoffs in my league, lose in the semi-finals thanks to Willie Parker.

 

Had Parker not gone off like that, I would have won the championship. So the "almost" story here could have been making a trade to win a championship AND setting myself up to repeat this year.

 

I'm in a 10 team league, so at the very worst, I'll have 4 top 20 guys on my roster before the season starts. I'll take that.

 

Ouch. That's a painful way to go. I understand the agony of such a close call, though. You're willing to wheel and deal, and that's always an advantage, and another reason that you really can't go wrong in either direction you take. You've left yourself with quality players, and/or trade pieces to improve your team to make the stretch run.

 

I'm assuming you've done the deed at this point . . . enjoy the players you've decided on.