Fantasy Football is 90% Luck

[nobody 2,883]

Oh yeah... look at me... I have skill because I watch football and can figure out who the good guys are! :jerkoff:

 

nobody has stepped up to announce he's an ass-hole who has FF skill. NEXT!

 

 

It does take skill to know who's good and who isn't. I just needed to see one game to know Cedric Benson wasn't nothing. You probably drafted him 1.04 right after Chris Henry.

[Mephisto 15]

It does take skill to know who's good and who isn't. I just needed to see one game to know Cedric Benson wasn't nothing. You probably drafted him 1.04 right after Chris Henry.

 

Yeah... that's usually the first load of bullsh!t that people who think that they have fantasy "skill" trot out. Your time is done here... I'm looking for someone with something original to offer. Thanks.

[Melissa Stark 1]

Mephisto

 

QUOTE(Melissa Stark @ Nov 7 2007, 11:05 PM)

Their is skill involved, like not drafting a focking kicker,defense in rnd 2, knowing your leagues scroing pts value.

So don't say there isn't skill, maybe wrong words, research and studying your league system first.

 

 

Anybody else want to step up and cry "look at me, I'm an ass-hole who believes I have FF skill!"

 

Melissa stepped up... so can you!

 

 

I do believe I have FF skill, It's called being smart enough to learn your league rules and pay attention to your FF players on a weekly basis. Anyone playing FF should have those basic skills.

 

Go take a trip over to the Helpless board and view some of idiotic questions. Should I start Brady against the Colts, Brady has a tough matchup...come on.

[dreadlocks34 0]

The reason Meph thinks there is no skill to a draft is because he's got no skill. He just picks names off a sheet, and guys like me will tear him to shreds.

On the contrary, in the redraft leagues the guy who usually wins in the one who buys a magazine on the way to the draft.

[nobody 2,883]

Meph shows up with his FF Today cheatsheet and thinks he's going to win his league. Please. Make the mistake of printing some list off the net against me and watch me dominate!#~@!##@!$!@

 

Oh and what's his argument that it's all luck...haha yeah it's luck. Thanks for that well thought out response Meph.

[dreadlocks34 0]

Yeah... that's usually the first load of bullsh!t that people who think that they have fantasy "skill" trot out. Your time is done here... I'm looking for someone with something original to offer. Thanks.

Again, even if you think you have skill the odds are only in which team you are matched up against in a given week. Technically in a 16 team league you can be the second highest scoring team each week and never win a game. So while there is skill involved in how you play the game, the results come just as much from how the schedule is shuffled before the season as how well you pick a team.

[nobody 2,883]

Homeslice don't know. Sure it's luck for him because he doesn't know what he's doing. It's like poker. If you don't know what you're doing it's all luck. If you know a little bit of game theory, you have an edge.

[Mephisto 15]

Meph shows up with his FF Today cheatsheet and thinks he's going to win his league. Please. Make the mistake of printing some list off the net against me and watch me dominate!#~@!##@!$!@

 

Oh and what's his argument that it's all luck...haha yeah it's luck. Thanks for that well thought out response Meph.

 

 

nobody... I've won my league 4 out of 10 years and there are FFT members who have played in it. I'm the only owner to win more than 1 time.

 

And it's still 100% chance.

 

Cue the stupidassed jokes about how I must play with retards or it's a two-team league... but only the biggest ass-holes think it takes skill. You're actually dead-on... I show up with my cheatsheet (though not FFT's) - pick my players, go home and play.

 

And I win. Not because I'm skillful, but because I'm lucky. End of story.

[Mephisto 15]

Homeslice don't know. Sure it's luck for him because he doesn't know what he's doing. It's like poker. If you don't know what you're doing it's all luck. If you know a little bit of game theory, you have an edge.

 

 

Yeah... people who drafted Stephen Jackson or Frank Gore this year, just aren't as skilled as the people who didn't draft them. :jerkoff:

 

NEXT!

[madd futher mucker 36]

Tell me this: If it is 90-100% luck, then why have I made the playoffs 11 straight times? (although 1 of my teams is in doubt this year at 4-5). But I believe I can WIN the other 2 leagues i'm in this year.

 

I made 2 trades and picked up a free agent THIS WEEK ALONE in ONE league in preparation for the play-offs:

 

My QBs were Big Ben and Kitna

 

First I traded Ben and Grant (GB) for Palmer and Norwood.

Next I traded Kitna and S Holmes for Edwards and Coles.

Finally I picked Clemens off of free agent list and had to drop C Henry (Cin)

 

All of these moves were made to maximize match-ups in wks 14 -16.

 

My Team right now: Palmer, Clemens, Parker, K Jones, Lewis, P Holmes, Norwood, O Cinco, Edwards, Coles, Evans, Marshall, Bowe, Gates, Akers, Wash

 

My next move is to pick up Tampa Bay Def for Norwood. in addition, I still have 2 open trade offers for other owners to act on:

I'm trying to trade Bowe for Walker

I'm trying to trade Kevin Jones and Marshall for Lynch and Rudi J (again, based on VERY soft upcoming schedule for Rudi

 

I also have three open trade offers in my other league. This is what you call active team management. i'm typing this not to brag (well maybe a little) but to demonstrate that SKILL is very much part of the result.

[nobody 2,883]

Tell me this: If it is 90-100% luck, then why have I made the playoffs 11 straight times? (although 1 of my teams is in doubt this year at 4-5). But I believe I can WIN the other 2 leagues i'm in this year.

Because Meph plays with his mommy, aunts, and retarded neighbor who let him win, so it has to be luck.

[nobody 2,883]

Yeah... people who drafted Stephen Jackson or Frank Gore this year, just aren't as skilled as the people who didn't draft them. :jerkoff:

 

NEXT!

 

Everybody who says it's luck always brings up some busts. Yeah that was luck.

 

NEXT!

[Mephisto 15]

Everybody who says it's luck always brings up some busts. Yeah that was luck.

 

NEXT!

 

That isn't what I did... NEXT!

[nobody 2,883]

That isn't what I did... NEXT!

Yes you did

 

NEXT@!!@$@#@!

[OD99 0]

i'm typing this not to brag (well maybe a little) but to demonstrate that SKILL is very much part of the result.

 

Actually you are showing that you need luck too. It is lucky you have other owners who would make those trades with you...not all outrageous, but a few head scratchers...

[Mephisto 15]

Tell me this: If it is 90-100% luck, then why have I made the playoffs 11 straight times? (although 1 of my teams is in doubt this year at 4-5). But I believe I can WIN the other 2 leagues i'm in this year.

 

I made 2 trades and picked up a free agent THIS WEEK ALONE in ONE league in preparation for the play-offs:

 

My QBs were Big Ben and Kitna

 

First I traded Ben and Grant (GB) for Palmer and Norwood.

Next I traded Kitna and S Holmes for Edwards and Coles.

Finally I picked Clemens off of free agent list and had to drop C Henry (Cin)

 

All of these moves were made to maximize match-ups in wks 14 -16.

 

My Team right now: Palmer, Clemens, Parker, K Jones, Lewis, P Holmes, Norwood, O Cinco, Edwards, Coles, Evans, Marshall, Bowe, Gates, Akers, Wash

 

My next move is to pick up Tampa Bay Def for Norwood. in addition, I still have 2 open trade offers for other owners to act on:

I'm trying to trade Bowe for Walker

I'm trying to trade Kevin Jones and Marshall for Lynch and Rudi J (again, based on VERY soft upcoming schedule for Rudi

 

I also have three open trade offers in my other league. This is what you call active team management. i'm typing this not to brag (well maybe a little) but to demonstrate that SKILL is very much part of the result.

 

And all you have are guesses as to how any/all of them will perform from here on out. You have absolutely no control over their performances... only guesses and expectations. No skill you could possible offer on this earth will have any bearing on how they perform in any given week, therefore...

 

It's 100% chance.

 

But it sure is a lot of fun to put yourself in what you guess will be the best position to win. Whether or not you do is completely out of your hands when it comes to Sunday gametime... and all on the skills of the players on the field.

 

Like I said... it's like playing the focking lottery.

 

NEXT!

[Mephisto 15]

Yes you did

 

NEXT@!!@$@#@!

 

 

I brought up stone-cold STUDS who happened to get hurt. I didn't bring up busts.

 

OWNT!!! NEXT!!!

[madd futher mucker 36]

Actually you are showing that you need luck too. It is lucky you have other owners who would make those trades with you...not all outrageous, but a few head scratchers...

 

 

I didn't say it was ALL skill or I wouldn't be 4-5 in my other league....LOL), but like the poker analogy, skill wins over time, luck can highly impact any game or any season. Most people who say it is all luck, do the draft and then pretty much sit on their teams. I usually get out 1/2 dozen trade offers a week (and a few send offers to me) - in addition, i spent 3 hours last night just analyzing free agent or waiver wire defenses with for matchup potential in weeks 11-16 in each of my leagues.

[nobody 2,883]

I brought up stone-cold STUDS who happened to get hurt. I didn't bring up busts.

 

OWNT!!! NEXT!!!

 

 

Let's end this fallacy of an argument. You are saying that it's 100% luck. No one here is saying it's 100% skill. All anyone has to do is inject 1% of skill into the equation and you are 100% wrong. Got that jack? So when you bring up a case of a guy getting injured (bad luck), it means nothing.

 

OWNTERATED!@#@!$#! NEXT!@#!

[Mephisto 15]

Let me know when you catch a score for a TD in the NFL, Johnny McFFSkill. OWNTED1!!

[dominus florenzus 0]

I don't believe that it is 90% luck, more like 50% luck. But that basically means that you can be the most prepared fantasy owner, then flip a coin to see if you will win or lose on any given week.

 

Injuries - no one can predict. And when they happen to a stud, sometimes it affects everyone else on the team. Also, you never know when some average player will break a tackle and score an 80 yard TD... sometimes netting your opponent the 14 points he needs to beat you.

 

And, it is virtually impossible to play any sort of defense in fantasy football. We've all had the experience of scoring the second most points in a week, only to be playing against the top scorer... meanwhile there is a 90-80 game somewhere...

 

yup, a lot is luck. But that is also what makes it fun to play. Because when your team looks shitty... well sometimes they find a way to win!

[Mephisto 15]

I didn't say it was ALL skill or I wouldn't be 4-5 in my other league....LOL), but like the poker analogy, skill wins over time, luck can highly impact any game or any season. Most people who say it is all luck, do the draft and then pretty much sit on their teams. I usually get out 1/2 dozen trade offers a week (and a few send offers to me) - in addition, i spent 3 hours last night just analyzing free agent or waiver wire defenses with for matchup potential in weeks 11-16 in each of my leagues.

 

Wow. That's TOTALLY skillful. Jackass. Get a focking life.

[nobody 2,883]

Let me know when you catch a score for a TD in the NFL, Johnny McFFSkill. OWNTED1!!

 

 

You're not even trying anymore. I let someone else take it from here since you're only bringing your D game.

 

If you want the knowledge you gots to go to FF college!@$!@31

[madd futher mucker 36]

Wow. That's TOTALLY skillful. Jackass. Get a focking life.

 

This has to be someone highjacking Mephisto's name because this is cannot be him. He trades as much or more than I do and he also has had success with his teams because he spends some serious TIME on his hobby too. What exactly is your EFFING PROBLEM?

 

If it is 100% luck, why do you have 14400 posts here, and why do you waste your time making trades or playing FF in the 1st place? What is the purpose if you believe it's all luck? I'd say you are the one who needs to get a life.

[De Novo 0]

Yeah... people who drafted Stephen Jackson or Frank Gore this year, just aren't as skilled as the people who didn't draft them. :jerkoff:

 

NEXT!

Actually... if you read Moz's 370-f carry analysis you might have avoided S-Jax, and if you followed Gore's career prior to last year you'd know he was injury prone and got a lot of work last year. Was it 100% that they got hurt? Hell no, but to say that they (or LJ) weren't more likely to get hurt than many other backs is just ignorant of facts and precedent.

 

I'm going back to my draft cheat sheet and injury-related comments on most people's top 10 RBs... my approach is to take as little risk w/ a 1st round RB as possible.

 

LT - 370/f but he's done it multiple times before... may be getting old???

SJax - 370/f, big bruising style, maybe more apt to get hurt

Addai - hasn't carried the rock a ton before, but got stronger as season went on

Gore - last year was 1st year he held up well, continue trend or revert?

LJ - blew threw 370/f, most overworked back in a season, o-line even worse, avoid

Alexander - long in the tooth, "freak" injury last year in the foot, breaking down physically, looks slow, avoid

Maroney - never stayed healthy, broke down as season went on, Belichick's injury reports, avoid

FWP - shown to be durable, overworked for body size?

Westbrook - always misses 1-3 games, soft? just hope for no season-ender

Bush - gonna break his ankle, just a ? of when

 

Now, I'm not 100% perfect and freak injuries happen, but if you take a look at that list, the guys with the most damning injury comments they're the ones that got hurt. LJ, Alexander, and Maroney being the most obvious before the fact. A lot of these could be reasonably forseen.

[BoltAddiction 0]

Let's face it. When I was 1-4 in one league and 0-3 in another, it was all a matter of luck. Now that I'm respectively 5-4 and 6-3 in those same two leagues, its all skill. Its natural for us to credit our intelligence and discount our stupidity. Any of us who are use to winning every year who have suffered a bad year no doubt chalk it up to bad luck. Any of us who aren't as fortunate, no doubt think we know it all when we finally do get it right. The reason this dispute rears its ugly head every year is simply because the haves will always defend themselves as will the have nots.

[AnaheimRams 28]

Wow. That's TOTALLY skillful. Jackass. Get a focking life.

 

Just wondering... besides being a massive troll... if you have NO control over your fantasy season... why are you here? Why bother doing research... or even paying attention? Why not just draw names out of a hat in August and field a lineup... then check back in at Christmas and see if you won?

 

Or... is it really just to be a massive troll?

 

'cause... you're either a jerkoff thinking he can affect the outcome of Fantasy Football by actually doing research... or... yer a jerkoff because you know it doesn't matter, but you hang out here anyway.

 

I don't see another option.

[RSersen 0]

Some aspects of the game are pure luck (or lack thereof).

 

One league I'm 3-6 with Brady and a good supporting cast....Westbrook, McGahee, Holt, Holmes, Cooley, Stover, Giants D. I'm 3rd in the league in total points scored..but also far away the leader in points allowed, by about 170 points. You can't play defense in FF...obviously I'm catching teams at the absolute worst time. I've been the victim of both of Peterson's blow up games. He was traded in between, and I caught both owners on the wrong week. Stuff like that happens, and no matter how skilled you are, there's no way to overcome it.

 

You also have to deal with players just busting or booming. Anybody think that Brady would be doing THIS before the season? If you say yes, you're a liar. And then there's always injuries.

 

So yes, there's a fair amount of luck involved.

 

But you also have to be able to do your homework. Any body can blindly sign up for a league having never played FF before. Chances are they have a bad draft, or they make stupid trades, drop players they shouldn't...add players that aren't worth it. Hell, I've been able to scoop Thomas Jones, Kevin Jones, and MJD off of waivers this season in different leagues...all are players that really had no business touching the waiver wire.

 

You're going to have lucky breaks or bad breaks throughout the season. But you still have to be able to have a good draft, make good free agent pick ups, be able to sell high, buy low, etc.

 

There's luck involved, but not 90%. Probably closer to 70/30 in favor of skill.

[Mephisto 15]

This has to be someone highjacking Mephisto's name because this is cannot be him. He trades as much or more than I do and he also has had success with his teams because he spends some serious TIME on his hobby too. What exactly is your EFFING PROBLEM?

 

If it is 100% luck, why do you have 14400 posts here, and why do you waste your time making trades or playing FF in the 1st place? What is the purpose if you believe it's all luck? I'd say you are the one who needs to get a life.

 

 

- Because it's fun.

 

- Because it's fun.

 

- Because I could win some money.

 

- Because it's fun.

 

- It's like playing the lottery.

 

Golly gee, I guess I need MAD SKILZ to know football and pick players. Tools. So, if you pick players who do well for your team and I pick up players who get hurt or suck... you had better "skill" than me.

 

Focking douchebags.

 

Research is a skill! Reading is a skill! Being able to log onto the computer is a skill! Are these really the arguments people are going to make to justify saying any amount of your SKILL is accountable for your wins/losses?

 

LMAO! Hey, if that's what you need to tell yourself so you don't feel as much like a homo... knock yourself out.

 

In the meantime, I'm just a lucky homo.

 

I didn't read the whole thread since getting up... has anyone trotted out the If it's 100% chance, how come the same people are usually the winners in my league?!?!? yet?

[jdon 28]

Thats why I want to play in a points only league, no luck there. Except they are Soooooooooo boring. Any way around that?

I have played in a pts only league, w/ a weekly high point winner getting $XX.XX per week. Thats okay, but not as much fun as H v. H league.

 

In other words, is there a way to take luck out of F.F.? Maybe not all of it is possiable, but dropping the %.

 

 

I think its rather simple, especially when it comes to H-H scoring: you make your last playoff spot, be it the 4 or 6 spot, rewarded to the highest point total remaining. That way the number one scoring person always makes the playoffs.

 

It is also imperitive that you bitchslap all the number 3-6 points guys who cry if they don't make the playoffs. You want in, win!

 

And another thing while I am at it: you know you are in H-H scoring so you had better structure a well rounded, every week performing, depth ladden team or you are going to lose more often then you win.

jdon

[Captain Goomy Noomy Roo 50]

If there wasn't some luck or mystery to it, what fun would it be?

 

We pick who we think is best and then trade and WW pickup when possible based on news and projections.

 

90% is a bit high though don't you think?

 

 

I would say about 60% study the stats and projections and make good moves.

 

40% Who knows what is going to happen? (and some dumb luck)

 

That is my take and thats part of the fun of it. As they say..."That's why they play the game".

[gszaszko 0]

Research is a skill! Reading is a skill!

 

I tried keeping quiet and I know I'm taking the bait here, but:

 

Skill:

1. the ability, coming from one's knowledge, practice, aptitude, etc., to do something well

2. competent excellence in performance; expertness

 

Ummmmm, so actually...yes. Those are both skills, just as analysis is a skill.

 

 

The ability to take multiple data points and analyze them to come to a conclusion is a skill. Some people do it measurably well (and measurability is important when it comes to determining whether something is a skill or competency), and some people do it poorly.

 

I spend every day of my professional life thinking about and dealing with the differences between knowledge, skills, and competencies so I take umbrage at the idea that research, analysis, and decision-making aren't skills. They damned well are. I can mitigate the amount of influence 'luck' has on my fantasy team through applying skills, but not eliminate it.

[Mephisto 15]

I tried keeping quiet and I know I'm taking the bait here, but:

 

Skill:

1. the ability, coming from one's knowledge, practice, aptitude, etc., to do something well

2. competent excellence in performance; expertness

 

Ummmmm, so actually...yes. Those are both skills, just as analysis is a skill.

The ability to take multiple data points and analyze them to come to a conclusion is a skill. Some people do it measurably well (and measurability is important when it comes to determining whether something is a skill or competency), and some people do it poorly.

 

I spend every day of my professional life thinking about and dealing with the differences between knowledge, skills, and competencies so I take umbrage at the idea that research, analysis, and decision-making aren't skills. They damned well are. I can mitigate the amount of influence 'luck' has on my fantasy team through applying skills, but not eliminate it.

 

And you're always at the mercy of the players' performances each week. ALWAYS. Nothing you do will change that.

 

Welcome to the thread.

[gszaszko 0]

And you're always at the mercy of the players' performances each week. ALWAYS. Nothing you do will change that.

 

Welcome to the thread.

 

So from 1p EST on most Sundays it's 100% luck. I 100% agree.

[ratbastard1 0]

And you're always at the mercy of the players' performances each week. ALWAYS. Nothing you do will change that.

 

Welcome to the thread.

 

Ok agreed but by putting better players on your roster those performances will be better. You make educated decisions as to who is a player to target in the draft, trades, wires and for starting lineups. Your decisions can influence the outcome of your league's game. If it was 100% chance that would not be the case. If my opponents roster only has players that are out for the game, I will win, they have no chance.

[Mephisto 15]

Ok agreed but by putting better players on your roster those performances will be better. You make educated decisions as to who is a player to target in the draft, trades, wires and for starting lineups. Your decisions can influence the outcome of your league's game. If it was 100% chance that would not be the case. If my opponents roster only has players that are out for the game, I will win, they have no chance.

 

It's still a crapshoot.

 

The bottom line is this... if it's important to your own self-esteem to have yourself convinced that you have "fantasy football skill" - you tell yourself that.

 

I guess it takes "skill" to roll dice down a table and to pick my mega-millions numbers, too.

[gszaszko 0]

It's still a crapshoot.

 

The bottom line is this... if it's important to your own self-esteem to have yourself convinced that you have "fantasy football skill" - you tell yourself that.

 

I guess it takes "skill" to roll dice down a table and to pick my mega-millions numbers, too.

 

Dice, lottery numbers, and roulette wheels are random; picking players, and even their performances, are not. NFL coaches, scouts, and oddsmakers will disagree with you mightily on whether or not player performance is random and the equivalent of a 'crapshoot'.

[Mephisto 15]

Dice, lottery numbers, and roulette wheels are random; picking players, and even their performances, are not. NFL coaches, scouts, and oddsmakers will disagree with you mightily on whether or not player performance is random and the equivalent of a 'crapshoot'.

 

As it pertains to fantasy football... it's a crapshoot.

[Dan 66]

You're not even trying anymore. I let someone else take it from here since you're only bringing your D game.

 

If you want the knowledge you gots to go to FF college!@$!@31

 

nobody -

You're making the mistake of working an argument that has a fluid foundation. You will get nowhere with Mephisto, because he has defined "skill" differently than you. That allows him to sit back and simply mock, rather support his argument, knowing that you are defining "skill" differently than him.

 

Don't bother, Meph. We've danced this dance before. You're not wrong; you're belligerent.

[gszaszko 0]

As it pertains to fantasy football... it's a crapshoot.

 

Ummmmm, huh? My fantasy football team's score is based on the performance of the live players on-the-field (which, as I've demonstrated, is predictable within reason), what form of league are you playing in - you rolling 20-sided dies for each player or something?