Do Not Draft List

[karmarooster 0]

this thread is devoted to a DND list. However i want to clarify, it does not mean that a player should not be drafted AT ALL, but rather, that a player is not worth taking at his current ADP.

 

(for the purposes of statistics i am using PPR scoring system)

 

ADP - PPR from MockDraftCentral

 

 

Ronnie Brown

 

His current ADP is 35, or 19th RB taken. I would not mind him as a RB4 or RB5 in a league that starts 2 RBs and a flex. However this seems extremely unlikely. RBs around Ronnie brown in ADP include: Jamal Lewis - MJD - (Ronnie) - Michael Turner - Edge - FWP - Thomas Jones - Julius Jones.

 

Frankly i would rather have any of those RBs, or even lower ADP guys like Lendale White, McFadden, or Selvin Young.

 

I read that his recovery from ACL surgery still has a long way to go, and is not in the same ballpark in terms of movement as Deion Branch. Furthermore, he is not a Parcells guy, and Ricky Williams is getting some buzz from camp.

 

Best case scenario - Ronnie comes back to have a strong second half of the season. More likely - he never posts starter quality numbers this year, but returns to form in 2009.

 

 

Laurence Maroney

 

Amazingly his ADP is higher than Reggie Bush or MJD at 23. RBs in this range include: Willis - (Maroney) - Bush - Brandon Jacobs - Jamal Lewis - MJD

 

I would put him somewhere behind Thomas Jones.

 

The problem is not his talent level but his inconsistent role in the Pat offense. Again, i wouldn't want him on my team even as a flex player, unless i had a solid flex WR. RB3 or RB4. Seems unlikely.

 

Brandon Marshall ADP 52

 

Some might look at his ADP and think he is a steal. That may be true since he has the talent to finish in the top 10, even the top 5. Except i don't think that will happen if he misses half the season.

 

I know some people are very high on this guy because of the great season he had last year. The problem is his looming suspension. It seems certain to me he will get at least 4 games. Possibly 6-8, although i think the whole season is doubtful.

 

Other WRs in this range: Roy Williams - Santonio Holmes - (Marshall) - Marvin - Calvin - Hines Ward - Dwayne Bowe - Lee Evans - Donald Driver - Roddy White

 

in my league we start 3 WRs plus a flex. You could make an arguement that Marshall would be a great WR2 or WR3, worth drafting here, and that you could take someone later on like Jericho Cotchery to fill in while Marshall is on suspension. not a bad argument. or you could let someone else take him and not have to worry about what to do for the suspension.

 

The problem is i read these reports about Marshall showing up at camp fat and out of shape, having to take a knee after every play etc. Cutler was not pleased with him or for the TV incident. He seems to be acting like he knows he's going to be suspended for some time, and thus doesn't have to be fit ready to go week 1.

 

Hines Ward ADP 59

 

His star is falling while Holmes is rising. Although last year Holmes had 30 fewer targets than Ward, i expect that to be reversed for the upcoming year. Holmes has everything you look for the 3rd year WR breakout. He really put it together last year and built some rep with Big Ben. At the same time he benefits from Wards presence bc Holmes gets to match up against the CB2.

 

Wards last 2 years stats: 71 - 732 7td; 74 - 975 - 6tds. He hasn't had more than 1000 yards since 2001-02-03-04. There doesn't seem to be enough to go around in the air in Pitt... Holmes, Heath Miller getting the looks at the goal line, plus the presence of Limas Sweed.

 

in short it seems to me that Ward's ADP is based soley on his name and not his production.

 

Would you rather have: Ward, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, or Roddy White. I think its worth passing on all 4, but i would probably select Lee Evans from that group. He certainly has his own question marks, though.

 

Other guys i will mention but only briefly:

 

Rudi Johnson - he's never been good in PPR and has had some serious miles put on the tires in the last 4 seasons. Although the one thing that suggests he isn't finished yet is the fact that the bengals didn't draft a RB and let Kenny Irons go. They are set with Rudi, Kenny, and the eternally injured Chris Perry.

 

Michael Turner - I expect him to be a less successful Lendale white. The falcons don't have a great line and i don't see him averaging more than 3.6 YPC. The offense is yuck, the figure to be breaking in Ryan by week 8, and Jerious Norwood is always threatening to break out.

 

 

I'm sure this post is going to cause some serious uproar, but keep in mind i'm not saying that players aren't worth a roster spot, just not worth it when you consider the ADP.

 

Please post your responses to my list as well as posting your own DND. and please don't just post a list of names but back it up with something.

[plasma george 62]

I love posts like this....seriously. (not bustin' balls)

 

I seriously am FF smarter for reading it !

 

Quick facts/info about guys I may be considering that I'll remember during the draft.

Cause I may go Brady/Manning in the first, and leave the RBs to 4th/5th if I see a diamond there (like Portis 6th last year, Gore 6th prior year)

 

Thanks

[coyote-kid 0]

this thread is devoted to a DND list. However i want to clarify, it does not mean that a player should not be drafted AT ALL, but rather, that a player is not worth taking at his current ADP.

 

(for the purposes of statistics i am using PPR scoring system)

 

ADP - PPR from MockDraftCentral

Ronnie Brown

 

His current ADP is 35, or 19th RB taken. I would not mind him as a RB4 or RB5 in a league that starts 2 RBs and a flex. However this seems extremely unlikely. RBs around Ronnie brown in ADP include: Jamal Lewis - MJD - (Ronnie) - Michael Turner - Edge - FWP - Thomas Jones - Julius Jones.

 

Frankly i would rather have any of those RBs, or even lower ADP guys like Lendale White, McFadden, or Selvin Young.

 

I read that his recovery from ACL surgery still has a long way to go, and is not in the same ballpark in terms of movement as Deion Branch. Furthermore, he is not a Parcells guy, and Ricky Williams is getting some buzz from camp.

 

Best case scenario - Ronnie comes back to have a strong second half of the season. More likely - he never posts starter quality numbers this year, but returns to form in 2009.

Laurence Maroney

 

Amazingly his ADP is higher than Reggie Bush or MJD at 23. RBs in this range include: Willis - (Maroney) - Bush - Brandon Jacobs - Jamal Lewis - MJD

 

I would put him somewhere behind Thomas Jones.

 

The problem is not his talent level but his inconsistent role in the Pat offense. Again, i wouldn't want him on my team even as a flex player, unless i had a solid flex WR. RB3 or RB4. Seems unlikely.

 

Brandon Marshall ADP 52

 

Some might look at his ADP and think he is a steal. That may be true since he has the talent to finish in the top 10, even the top 5. Except i don't think that will happen if he misses half the season.

 

I know some people are very high on this guy because of the great season he had last year. The problem is his looming suspension. It seems certain to me he will get at least 4 games. Possibly 6-8, although i think the whole season is doubtful.

 

Other WRs in this range: Roy Williams - Santonio Holmes - (Marshall) - Marvin - Calvin - Hines Ward - Dwayne Bowe - Lee Evans - Donald Driver - Roddy White

 

in my league we start 3 WRs plus a flex. You could make an arguement that Marshall would be a great WR2 or WR3, worth drafting here, and that you could take someone later on like Jericho Cotchery to fill in while Marshall is on suspension. not a bad argument. or you could let someone else take him and not have to worry about what to do for the suspension.

 

The problem is i read these reports about Marshall showing up at camp fat and out of shape, having to take a knee after every play etc. Cutler was not pleased with him or for the TV incident. He seems to be acting like he knows he's going to be suspended for some time, and thus doesn't have to be fit ready to go week 1.

 

Hines Ward ADP 59

 

His star is falling while Holmes is rising. Although last year Holmes had 30 fewer targets than Ward, i expect that to be reversed for the upcoming year. Holmes has everything you look for the 3rd year WR breakout. He really put it together last year and built some rep with Big Ben. At the same time he benefits from Wards presence bc Holmes gets to match up against the CB2.

 

Wards last 2 years stats: 71 - 732 7td; 74 - 975 - 6tds. He hasn't had more than 1000 yards since 2001-02-03-04. There doesn't seem to be enough to go around in the air in Pitt... Holmes, Heath Miller getting the looks at the goal line, plus the presence of Limas Sweed.

 

in short it seems to me that Ward's ADP is based soley on his name and not his production.

 

Would you rather have: Ward, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, or Roddy White. I think its worth passing on all 4, but i would probably select Lee Evans from that group. He certainly has his own question marks, though.

 

Other guys i will mention but only briefly:

 

Rudi Johnson - he's never been good in PPR and has had some serious miles put on the tires in the last 4 seasons. Although the one thing that suggests he isn't finished yet is the fact that the bengals didn't draft a RB and let Kenny Irons go. They are set with Rudi, Kenny, and the eternally injured Chris Perry.

 

Michael Turner - I expect him to be a less successful Lendale white. The falcons don't have a great line and i don't see him averaging more than 3.6 YPC. The offense is yuck, the figure to be breaking in Ryan by week 8, and Jerious Norwood is always threatening to break out.

I'm sure this post is going to cause some serious uproar, but keep in mind i'm not saying that players aren't worth a roster spot, just not worth it when you consider the ADP.

 

Please post your responses to my list as well as posting your own DND. and please don't just post a list of names but back it up with something.

 

Another one you could add to the list is Coles, whose ADP is higher than his Team mate, Cotchery, who is or will be the man in NY this year...

[WhiteWonder 2,688]

Another one you could add to the list is Coles, whose ADP is higher than his Team mate, Cotchery, who is or will be the man in NY this year...

 

if pennington wins the job and coles stays healthy coles will still outproduce cotchery by years end

[ieatchickens 0]

this thread is devoted to a DND list. However i want to clarify, it does not mean that a player should not be drafted AT ALL, but rather, that a player is not worth taking at his current ADP.

 

(for the purposes of statistics i am using PPR scoring system)

 

ADP - PPR from MockDraftCentral

Ronnie Brown

 

His current ADP is 35, or 19th RB taken. I would not mind him as a RB4 or RB5 in a league that starts 2 RBs and a flex. However this seems extremely unlikely. RBs around Ronnie brown in ADP include: Jamal Lewis - MJD - (Ronnie) - Michael Turner - Edge - FWP - Thomas Jones - Julius Jones.

 

Frankly i would rather have any of those RBs, or even lower ADP guys like Lendale White, McFadden, or Selvin Young.

 

I read that his recovery from ACL surgery still has a long way to go, and is not in the same ballpark in terms of movement as Deion Branch. Furthermore, he is not a Parcells guy, and Ricky Williams is getting some buzz from camp.

 

Best case scenario - Ronnie comes back to have a strong second half of the season. More likely - he never posts starter quality numbers this year, but returns to form in 2009.

Laurence Maroney

 

Amazingly his ADP is higher than Reggie Bush or MJD at 23. RBs in this range include: Willis - (Maroney) - Bush - Brandon Jacobs - Jamal Lewis - MJD

 

I would put him somewhere behind Thomas Jones.

 

The problem is not his talent level but his inconsistent role in the Pat offense. Again, i wouldn't want him on my team even as a flex player, unless i had a solid flex WR. RB3 or RB4. Seems unlikely.

 

Brandon Marshall ADP 52

 

Some might look at his ADP and think he is a steal. That may be true since he has the talent to finish in the top 10, even the top 5. Except i don't think that will happen if he misses half the season.

 

I know some people are very high on this guy because of the great season he had last year. The problem is his looming suspension. It seems certain to me he will get at least 4 games. Possibly 6-8, although i think the whole season is doubtful.

 

Other WRs in this range: Roy Williams - Santonio Holmes - (Marshall) - Marvin - Calvin - Hines Ward - Dwayne Bowe - Lee Evans - Donald Driver - Roddy White

 

in my league we start 3 WRs plus a flex. You could make an arguement that Marshall would be a great WR2 or WR3, worth drafting here, and that you could take someone later on like Jericho Cotchery to fill in while Marshall is on suspension. not a bad argument. or you could let someone else take him and not have to worry about what to do for the suspension.

 

The problem is i read these reports about Marshall showing up at camp fat and out of shape, having to take a knee after every play etc. Cutler was not pleased with him or for the TV incident. He seems to be acting like he knows he's going to be suspended for some time, and thus doesn't have to be fit ready to go week 1.

 

Hines Ward ADP 59

 

His star is falling while Holmes is rising. Although last year Holmes had 30 fewer targets than Ward, i expect that to be reversed for the upcoming year. Holmes has everything you look for the 3rd year WR breakout. He really put it together last year and built some rep with Big Ben. At the same time he benefits from Wards presence bc Holmes gets to match up against the CB2.

 

Wards last 2 years stats: 71 - 732 7td; 74 - 975 - 6tds. He hasn't had more than 1000 yards since 2001-02-03-04. There doesn't seem to be enough to go around in the air in Pitt... Holmes, Heath Miller getting the looks at the goal line, plus the presence of Limas Sweed.

 

in short it seems to me that Ward's ADP is based soley on his name and not his production.

 

Would you rather have: Ward, Lee Evans, Donald Driver, or Roddy White. I think its worth passing on all 4, but i would probably select Lee Evans from that group. He certainly has his own question marks, though.

 

Other guys i will mention but only briefly:

 

Rudi Johnson - he's never been good in PPR and has had some serious miles put on the tires in the last 4 seasons. Although the one thing that suggests he isn't finished yet is the fact that the bengals didn't draft a RB and let Kenny Irons go. They are set with Rudi, Kenny, and the eternally injured Chris Perry.

 

Michael Turner - I expect him to be a less successful Lendale white. The falcons don't have a great line and i don't see him averaging more than 3.6 YPC. The offense is yuck, the figure to be breaking in Ryan by week 8, and Jerious Norwood is always threatening to break out.

I'm sure this post is going to cause some serious uproar, but keep in mind i'm not saying that players aren't worth a roster spot, just not worth it when you consider the ADP.

 

Please post your responses to my list as well as posting your own DND. and please don't just post a list of names but back it up with something.

 

Could not agree more. Nice insight.

[throttlers 0]

I'll add Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings or pretty much any packer offensive player this year. It looks like it is almost definite that Favre won't be playing for the pack. Hers's why.

 

1. We havn't seen enough of Rodgers to know if he can be a good NFL QB. In the Dallas game where everyone talks about him playing well, Dallas called of the dogs on defense after Favre went out. They didn't go after him like they did Favre. This year teams will be gameplanning for him. He's gonna see blitzes like crazy and we just don't know how he will handle it.

 

2. Even if Rodgers turns out to be very good, how many offenses gel their first year with a rookie starting QB?

 

3. Green Bay would have regressed even with Favre. They caught a lot of breaks last year with a relatively easy schedule and

staying injury free. I think that 11-12 wins would have been the ceiling with Favre. With basically a rookie QB, I think they will be fortunate if they are 500. Who will be the veteran leader of the offense in the locker room....Donald Driver? Mabe they pull it together latre in the season, but I see them losing a lot of games early.

 

4. Favre many times manufactured the GB offense. Favre was the guy who never gave up on a play and got in his RBs faces if they did. Favre made a living out of making mediocre WRs look very good. He made guys like Bill Schroeder look good! When is the last time Favre had a WR that would be a #1 on any of the better teams in the league? Driver has been his go to guy for the last few years, and he would be a #2 or even a #3 on a lot of other teams. Grant it this young WR corp is better than what he has had in a long time. However, we still don't know how much of their success was due to Favre. I doubt that they go from a hall of fame QB who set almost all the passing records to a 1st year starting QB and put up similar numbers.

 

5. Grant's success was set up for him perfectly last year. GB played pass pass and more pass the 1st part of the season. The running game was almost non existant (which made what Favre did even more impressive). Teams were worried about Favre burning them, so that opened up the running game late in the season. Don' forget, that Grant didn't win the starting job, he got it because of injury. He did well when given the opportunity, but everything just set up right for him to have a big end of the season. He won't catch anyone by surprise this year.

 

Grant is going in the early to mid 2nd round. I have even seen him go at the end of the 1st. I've seen Jennings going around the 4th round and Driver around the 6th. I can't see taking any of these guys where they are going. Too much risk and not enough upside.

 

If by some chance Favre puts on the green and gold again, then all of this changes of course.

[karmarooster 0]

I'll add Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings or pretty much any packer offensive player this year. It looks like it is almost definite that Favre won't be playing for the pack. Hers's why.

 

i tend to agree about Ryan Grant. His ADP is 15 which puts him in the mid 2nd round for 10 team drafts and early 2nd round for 12 teams. Other RBs in his ADP neighborhood:

 

Marshawn

(Grant)

Willis

Maroney

Bush

Jacobs

Jamal

 

Would you rather have Grant, Willis, Jacobs, or Jamal? interestingly my list would be the exact reverse of that ADP list... i would most want to have Jamal, then jacobs, then willis, then grant. Maroney should be way down as i already explained and Bush should be higher (for ppr), right behind marshawn.

 

Taking grant as your RB2? I'm not so sure, maybe its a worthwhile move bc he could turn out to be a top 10 RB. but you posted many reasonable arguments as to why he likely won't. I see Grant as a legit third rounder, but good luck getting him there.

 

Btw, his contract situation doesn't help matters. everything you posted deals with on the field analysis.

 

Regarding other players: how do you feel about Aaron Rodgers as a QB2? he seems to be a game manager who will try to limit turnovers. not a terrible choice, but i would rather have Vince Young as my low end backup QB. i would certainly rather have Schaub than Rodgers as well. he's 1 year ahead of him at this point. Rodgers also seems to spread the ball around alot, which might hurt the value of jennings and donald driver, even if he is productive.

 

the only guy who benefits from this situation is Brandon Jackson. often you can get him really late in drafts, somewhere in rounds 10-16. he may end up getting alot of carries or even being the primary back for sometime if the pack can't get grant to re-sign.

[throttlers 0]

Regarding other players: how do you feel about Aaron Rodgers as a QB2? he seems to be a game manager who will try to limit turnovers. not a terrible choice, but i would rather have Vince Young as my low end backup QB. i would certainly rather have Schaub than Rodgers as well.

 

 

I pretty much agree. I actually wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Rodgers in the late rounds. Even after all I have to say, TT seems to evaluate young talent well. He might be a decent QB by late in the season. I wouldn't want to have to rely on him though.

[the_risen_demon 0]

2. Even if Rodgers turns out to be very good, how many offenses gel their first year with a rookie starting QB?

 

While I'll agree that both Jennings and Grant are currently overvalued, people seem to frequently mistake Rodgers for a rookie QB. There will be some growning pains as he adjusts to being a starter, but he this is his fourth year in this offense. That's a far cry from a QB fresh out of the college ranks. Sitting behind Favre may have been the best thing for him, in the same way that sitting behind Montana, however frustrating, was probably the best thing for Steve Young.

[murf74 461]

I would love to see an even more extensive do not draft list. I think you are on to something....maybe a "do not draft before round X" list.

 

Cause those guys you do want to draft, not at their average draft spot. I mean nobody is going to pass on those guys completely. They have value past round "X".

[karmarooster 0]

I would love to see an even more extensive do not draft list. I think you are on to something....maybe a "do not draft before round X" list.

 

Cause those guys you do want to draft, not at their average draft spot. I mean nobody is going to pass on those guys completely. They have value past round "X".

 

 

feel free to contribute. so far the only player contributed is Ryan Grant.

[Jeremy 0]

The first name that comes to my mind as "do not draft" in MJD. Everyone is just assuming (again) that Fred Taylor is going to get hurt or give way to Jones-Drew. In a redraft non-PPR, I just can't see spending a mid 2nd rounder on a guy who's only going to touch the ball about 200 times.

 

Also, I would say Michael Turner. A lot of people will be enamored by his speed, but he's not playing for San Diego anymore, and that offense figures to be terrible. Would much rather have a Thomas Jones or Earnest Graham a round or 2 later.

 

Larry Johnson: Good RB, terrible team. Not enough other weapons to keep defenses honest. Herm Edwards has little imagination on offense, and a RB is only as good as his offensive line, and I don't think there's is very good anymore.

 

Hasselbeck: How is he a top 8 QB with those WRs? I'd rather wait several rounds and get Shaub and Rodgers who both have a lot more upside.

[VaTerp 0]

When I read the thread title the first 2 names that immediately came to mind were Ronnie Brown and Maroney. I agree with everyone else on the OP's list with the exception of Marshall. I think the suspension will scare enough people off that he becomes decent value. Of course that changes if its more than 2-4 games.

 

One name I would add is Derek Anderson. Love Cleveland's offense but something about DA makes me hesitant to pull the trigger where he's going. I see him going fairly early in a lot of mocks and would rather wait a few rounds on someone like Hasselbeck.

[coyote-kid 0]

When I read the thread title the first 2 names that immediately came to mind were Ronnie Brown and Maroney. I agree with everyone else on the OP's list with the exception of Marshall. I think the suspension will scare enough people off that he becomes decent value. Of course that changes if its more than 2-4 games.

 

One name I would add is Derek Anderson. Love Cleveland's offense but something about DA makes me hesitant to pull the trigger where he's going. I see him going fairly early in a lot of mocks and would rather wait a few rounds on someone like Hasselbeck.

 

 

 

I agree with your comments..

In addition, I worry now that everyone is thinking the same thing on DA,

and his ADP will drop and Hasselbeck's ADP will rise.

I was hoping to get Hass. in about the 7th round of my draft.

[karmarooster 0]

The first name that comes to my mind as "do not draft" in MJD. Everyone is just assuming (again) that Fred Taylor is going to get hurt or give way to Jones-Drew. In a redraft non-PPR, I just can't see spending a mid 2nd rounder on a guy who's only going to touch the ball about 200 times.

 

Also, I would say Michael Turner. A lot of people will be enamored by his speed, but he's not playing for San Diego anymore, and that offense figures to be terrible. Would much rather have a Thomas Jones or Earnest Graham a round or 2 later.

 

Larry Johnson: Good RB, terrible team. Not enough other weapons to keep defenses honest. Herm Edwards has little imagination on offense, and a RB is only as good as his offensive line, and I don't think there's is very good anymore.

 

Hasselbeck: How is he a top 8 QB with those WRs? I'd rather wait several rounds and get Shaub and Rodgers who both have a lot more upside.

 

i disagree about MJD. first of all, i have never seen him go mid 2nd round in a non PPR league. even in PPR he usually goes late 2nd-late 3rd. Here's some things MJD has going for him: he catches the ball often, and he gets touches around the goal line. while he doesn't get enough carries, but he gets high quality carries. I see him stepping up a bit compared to fred taylor, taking away 10% or more of Freddie's touches. The jags are still a run first team. he's the perfect flex RB, but a bit of a stretch as RB2.

 

I do agree about Michael Turner. 4th round running backs are tough to figure out. Turner is such an unknown, on a new team, a team that sucks btw, and also don't forget about jerious norwood. I wouldn't mind turner as a buckup RB after round 5, say, but most times he goes as a RB2 or RB3. in my mind he's a RB4.

 

As for larry johnson i am not as low on him as some people. he should be fully healthy and he didn't get many carries so i don't see him breaking down this year. people say the offensive line is terrible, but in my mind it is merely average to below average. isn't LJ still set for 1200-1500 yards combined? and around 10 TDs?

 

Hasselbeck's numbers from last year were inflated cos they couldn't run the ball at all. they got julius and figure to have a more balanced offense. so i figure hasselbecks numbers to go back to where they were a few years ago. he's not a bad pick, but i would rather have bulger, mcnabb, or maybe delhomme. i agree that his ADP is too high.

[coyote-kid 0]

i disagree about MJD. first of all, i have never seen him go mid 2nd round in a non PPR league. even in PPR he usually goes late 2nd-late 3rd. Here's some things MJD has going for him: he catches the ball often, and he gets touches around the goal line. while he doesn't get enough carries, but he gets high quality carries. I see him stepping up a bit compared to fred taylor, taking away 10% or more of Freddie's touches. The jags are still a run first team. he's the perfect flex RB, but a bit of a stretch as RB2.

 

As for larry johnson i am not as low on him as some people. he should be fully healthy and he didn't get many carries so i don't see him breaking down this year. people say the offensive line is terrible, but in my mind it is merely average to below average. isn't LJ still set for 1200-1500 yards combined? and around 10 TDs?

 

Hasselbeck's numbers from last year were inflated cos they couldn't run the ball at all. they got julius and figure to have a more balanced offense. so i figure hasselbecks numbers to go back to where they were a few years ago. he's not a bad pick, but i would rather have bulger, mcnabb, or maybe delhomme. i agree that his ADP is too high.

 

 

Your projected numbers for LJ are in the ball park for MJD (1200/12 maybe), but why pay with a high draft pick if MJD can be had in the 3rd round?

 

Hasselbeck always had good numbers and finished top ten, more than not, except for 06 when he got hurt and missed a handful of games.

Further, I have no idea what JJ brings to the Seattle table after watching him in Dallas for a few years.

He just might be part of a RBBC situation.

[Killer Elite 0]

Larry Johnson: Good RB, terrible team. Not enough other weapons to keep defenses honest. Herm Edwards has little imagination on offense, and a RB is only as good as his offensive line, and I don't think there's is very good anymore.

 

I actually think LJ is a little undervalued. The guy put over 700 combined yards and 4 TDs in 8 games last year while all the other teams did was stack the box against him. KC is also playing 9 games this year vs teams who were in the bottom 10 in Run Defense last year. LJ will have oportunity to shine this year if healthy. So I wouldnt put him on a DND list at all.. if anything he should go on the undervalued list.

[Jeremy 0]

i disagree about MJD. first of all, i have never seen him go mid 2nd round in a non PPR league. even in PPR he usually goes late 2nd-late 3rd. Here's some things MJD has going for him: he catches the ball often, and he gets touches around the goal line. while he doesn't get enough carries, but he gets high quality carries. I see him stepping up a bit compared to fred taylor, taking away 10% or more of Freddie's touches. The jags are still a run first team. he's the perfect flex RB, but a bit of a stretch as RB2.

 

I guess I was looking at the ADP in Antsports, who has him at around 2.5. Fantasy football calculator has him at 2.9, which is closer to what you were saying, I guess.

 

The problem with players with limited touches like Jones-Drew is that they tend to be very inconsistent. The games where he breaks a long one, or pounds 2 or 3 TDs, he's great. The other times, not so great. With the depth at RB this year, I'd prefer to wait. You can get Fred Taylor 4-5 rounds later (for example), and he only had 1 less pt/game than Jones Drew last year.

 

I guess if I'm drafting with a top 5 pick, I'd prefer to take one of the elite RBs, then grab a couple top WRs or a WR and QB before taking the likes of Jones-Drew. There will still be solid options in the 4th round and later. So I don't see myself drafting him. Not good value even in the early 3rd round, IMO. At least not in non-ppr, redraft leagues.

 

Also, I think people have a tendancy to throw dirt on the grave of some of these aging players before they're actually dead. Many people thought Fred Taylor would be nearly a non-factor last year, but he cut into Jones-Drew's production considerably.

[Jeremy 0]

I actually think LJ is a little undervalued. The guy put over 700 combined yards and 4 TDs in 8 games last year while all the other teams did was stack the box against him. KC is also playing 9 games this year vs teams who were in the bottom 10 in Run Defense last year. LJ will have oportunity to shine this year if healthy. So I wouldnt put him on a DND list at all.. if anything he should go on the undervalued list.

 

You might be right. I really believe a RB is only as good as his offensive line. How well do you think KC's o-line is going to do this year? I honestly have no idea, but my impression is it's not that good.

[karmarooster 0]

You might be right. I really believe a RB is only as good as his offensive line. How well do you think KC's o-line is going to do this year? I honestly have no idea, but my impression is it's not that good.

 

 

this is from fantasy footbal goat website, which did articles on every offensive line in the NFL by division.

 

"Kansas City Chiefs (4th in AFC West, 16th in Conference)

The Chiefs could’ve used Jack Long, but first-round pick Branden Albert should help their cause. This unit needs a lot of assistance after losing a few key veterans to retirement in the last year or so. Larry Johnson is praying for help.

 

LT Branden Albert (15th overall pick)

LG Brian Waters

C Rudy Niswanger

RG Adrian Jones

RT Damion McIntosh"

 

So they rank the chiefs line last in the AFC west and last in the AFC overall. Not as bad as some teams in the NFC, tho.

 

This is a good question for the 10th pick:

 

Say the first five picks go: LT, AP, Westbrook, Addai, Sjax

Then Moss and Brady at 6 and 7

Then Barber and Gore at 8 and 9. or some combination of these players at 6-9.

 

The 10th pick (in a 10 team league) has 2 picks. Problem is every solid pick is gone. What are you left with? LJ, Clinton Portis, Ryan Grant, Marshawn Lynch, TO and Reggie Wayne.

 

I have no idea what to do here. I would PROBABLY go with LJ and Marshawn, or maybe do something crazy like taking TO and Wayne. You could make an argument for Portis as well. I wouldn't go for ryan gran tho.

 

Any thoughts?

[Curt Sminkey 0]

I definately agree with Maroney. He killed me last year!

 

I gotta add any Denver RB to this list, despite their ability to run the ball. Knowing who is actually going to be getting the touches is like rolling dice. I read all sorts of posts on here last year about staying away from them. Of course, I didn't take the advice and I got burned.

 

That's two mistakes I will not be making again.

[Cstriker 2]

Rooster, knowing what you know now, how do you feel about this DnD list for next year?

[IAMWood 6]

Rooster, knowing what you know now, how do you feel about this DnD list for next year?

 

A link to ADP? Lots o time to think about that, I would check around Aug. 2. ???

 

[TheBlade 3]

Rooster, knowing what you know now, how do you feel about this DnD list for next year?

Talk about giving up a bit early, even if your season is in the tank.