keeper thoughts

[elbryn 0]

keeper league, able to keep up to 3 players per year. cost is equal to the round they were drafted in minus 2. ie: 10 round pick from last year costs 8th this year. should be plenty of talent to choose from, we're now in year two. i have the 1st pick for being the winner of the consolation bracket last year. i also have an extra 2nd rounder from trade.

 

all td's are 6pts, standard otherwise scoring

 

my options:

 

kevin smith - 5th round

pierre thomas- 14th round

desean jackson - 14th round

phillip rivers- 8th round

matt ryan- 10th round

 

my thoughts: i'm favoring keeping Smith, Thomas, and Rivers. The theory being that smith is a 3rd round pick that i'm getting for a 5. thomas is a 4th-5th for a 14th. if he pans out, i get to keep him a few years. i'm a bit torn over rivers or ryan. i kinda think that rivers had a bonus year last year and may not repeat. ryan is also a bit questionable. he's was a decent backup last year but will the addon of gonzo and another year mean he breaks out?

[chupinater 0]

Keep Pierre, DeSean, and Rivers. These Guys are all solid and you wouldn't get them at the same value this year.

Pierre will get most of the carries and Rush Tds, and if Bush goes down, which is likely given his track record, he has a chance to finish as the #1 or #2 RB in fantasy. Worst case is top 15. Kevin Smith I would let go and if you like him try to pick back up.

DeSean is only going to get better and should raise from a servicable #3 fantasy WR to a #2 or low end #1 this year.

You could make an argument for Matty Ice, but I'm leaning a little towards Rivers and then if you really like Ryan try to re-draft him as well in the 6th or 7th round.

[We Tigers 71]

Agree with DeSean/Pierre/Rivers. DeSean in the 13th (since you already have PT for your 14th) is too good to pass up. Having good options at RB/WR/QB going into the draft will let you take value instead of targeting a position in the first few rounds; if you kept Smith, you'd probably find yourself reaching for a WR you didn't love in an early round just out of necessity. Since no 1st or 2nd round picks can get kept, those will be your guys to win this year while the low-round keepers are your depth. I like Kevin Smith too, but I'd rather reach on him a little with a third-rounder than give up the chance to have DeSean at a great value for the next few seasons.

[bjlmonster 0]

No way you don't keep Smith, Thomas, and Rivers. Smith is a 3rd rounder in the 5th and that is great value. Pierre is even better value. Rivers is a better keep than Ryan IMO.

[WoodDuck2003 0]

No way you don't keep Smith, Thomas, and Rivers. Smith is a 3rd rounder in the 5th and that is great value. Pierre is even better value. Rivers is a better keep than Ryan IMO.

+1 I think this is a now brainer. Jackson is a good WR but no where near Smith.

[Ray_T 591]

keeper league, able to keep up to 3 players per year. cost is equal to the round they were drafted in minus 2. ie: 10 round pick from last year costs 8th this year. should be plenty of talent to choose from, we're now in year two. i have the 1st pick for being the winner of the consolation bracket last year. i also have an extra 2nd rounder from trade.

 

all td's are 6pts, standard otherwise scoring

 

my options:

 

kevin smith - 5th round

pierre thomas- 14th round

desean jackson - 14th round

phillip rivers- 8th round

matt ryan- 10th round

 

my thoughts: i'm favoring keeping Smith, Thomas, and Rivers. The theory being that smith is a 3rd round pick that i'm getting for a 5. thomas is a 4th-5th for a 14th. if he pans out, i get to keep him a few years. i'm a bit torn over rivers or ryan. i kinda think that rivers had a bonus year last year and may not repeat. ryan is also a bit questionable. he's was a decent backup last year but will the addon of gonzo and another year mean he breaks out?

 

I dont agree with keeping Kevin Smith. He showed promise as a rookie, but the team is changing their offensive Philosophy and the running game will be completely different. The change in QB may also hurt him. (especially if Stafford starts) Also, I think you would get him in the 4th or 5th round anyhow if you send him back. (I wouldnt take him until the 5th, and maybe later depending on who else is left)

 

I would keep Jackson & Thomas for sure. the cost of these guys is so minimal that you're dumb not to keep em.

 

I would also keep Rivers. He is on a good team and is a reasonably astute veteran who has shown he can get it done. Ryan isnt bad to keep, but compared to Rivers, this is a risky play, and I think you can do as well or better in the draft.

 

The only way I'd consider keeping Ryan is if you decide you arent sold on Pierre Thomas, and then I'd consider keeping 2 QB's and go straight for RB's and WR's with your high picks in the draft.

 

so my answer: Jackson, Thomas, and Rivers.

[Stewburtx8 67]

I dont agree with keeping Kevin Smith. He showed promise as a rookie, but the team is changing their offensive Philosophy and the running game will be completely different. The change in QB may also hurt him. (especially if Stafford starts) Also, I think you would get him in the 4th or 5th round anyhow if you send him back. (I wouldnt take him until the 5th, and maybe later depending on who else is left)

 

I would keep Jackson & Thomas for sure. the cost of these guys is so minimal that you're dumb not to keep em.

 

I would also keep Rivers. He is on a good team and is a reasonably astute veteran who has shown he can get it done. Ryan isnt bad to keep, but compared to Rivers, this is a risky play, and I think you can do as well or better in the draft.

 

The only way I'd consider keeping Ryan is if you decide you arent sold on Pierre Thomas, and then I'd consider keeping 2 QB's and go straight for RB's and WR's with your high picks in the draft.

 

so my answer: Jackson, Thomas, and Rivers.

 

 

Well since your the only other person on this board..ill just respond to your responses (while answering the OP's question) cause I'm bored.

 

I agree with everything you said about Kevin Smith. Is he really going in the 3rd round in some peoples draft? I don't see it. 4th or 5th round is where i think he should go. Also agree with keeping Thomas and Jackson. They are both worth more than 13th/14th round picks so the poster would be dumb not to keep them.

 

I'll differ slightly on the Rivers versus Ryan debate. I think I like Ryan better and he has more upside. I really like the Falcons offense this year. The addition of Tony G will just open up thing more on the outside for Roddy White. The running game is obviously really solid. The O-line is solid. I think this offense will score a ton. Also Ryan is two rounds cheaper than Rivers, so I'd keep him.

 

I'd keep Thomas, Jackson, Ryan.

[Ray_T 591]

Well since your the only other person on this board..ill just respond to your responses (while answering the OP's question) cause I'm bored.

 

I agree with everything you said about Kevin Smith. Is he really going in the 3rd round in some peoples draft? I don't see it. 4th or 5th round is where i think he should go. Also agree with keeping Thomas and Jackson. They are both worth more than 13th/14th round picks so the poster would be dumb not to keep them.

 

I'll differ slightly on the Rivers versus Ryan debate. I think I like Ryan better and he has more upside. I really like the Falcons offense this year. The addition of Tony G will just open up thing more on the outside for Roddy White. The running game is obviously really solid. The O-line is solid. I think this offense will score a ton. Also Ryan is two rounds cheaper than Rivers, so I'd keep him.

 

I'd keep Thomas, Jackson, Ryan.

 

I can see where you are coming from. although Ryan is on a serious run first offense, and I dont think they will open that offense up for another year or two.

 

I like him. but if keeping him, I'd likely keep him at the expense of Thomas rather than Rivers.

 

however, this is one of those questions where knowing more about the league format would help. In an 8 team league our answer may differ from what he'd get if it was a 12 team league. 6 points for all TD's certainly makes a QB more valuable in this format, and Thomas MAY still be a backup. He MAY also become the starter after Bush is forced to sit out 6 games due to an infected papercut he got while signing an endorsement deal.

 

tough to say. hes about as boom or bust as you can get.

[mrgymrat 0]

In a keeper league, I would value RBs over WRs and value QBs below both of them (unless of course we're taking top tier guys). Seems to me that there are plenty of #3 WRs to be had down the road and although I think DeSean has some good upside, I would go w/ Thomas, Smith & either Rivers or Ryan.

 

If you had a better WR then I would probably go RB-RB-WR cuz you can't tell me that you won't be able to find a QB like Palmer, Cassell, or Shaun Hill whose possibly on a bad team and will put you comparable #'s cuz they have to throw all the time.

 

Just my opinion.

 

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In my case we get to keep 4 which would be:

 

1- R Moss

2- Boldin

3- Portis

4- Romo or V Jackson (seriously considering VJ since he's young, top 10 WR, and Moss is getting along in yrs)

[elbryn 0]

In a keeper league, I would value RBs over WRs and value QBs below both of them (unless of course we're taking top tier guys). Seems to me that there are plenty of #3 WRs to be had down the road and although I think DeSean has some good upside, I would go w/ Thomas, Smith & either Rivers or Ryan.

 

If you had a better WR then I would probably go RB-RB-WR cuz you can't tell me that you won't be able to find a QB like Palmer, Cassell, or Shaun Hill whose possibly on a bad team and will put you comparable #'s cuz they have to throw all the time.

 

Just my opinion.

 

---

In my case we get to keep 4 which would be:

 

1- R Moss

2- Boldin

3- Portis

4- Romo or V Jackson (seriously considering VJ since he's young, top 10 WR, and Moss is getting along in yrs)

 

definately appreciate all the thoughts everyone has put up. sorry i've been gone awhile and havent chimed in. this is a 12 man league.

 

i'm most likely going to go the thomas, ryan, and jackson route. here's why- i think thomas at the cost of a the late pick boom is not something i cant pass up. worst case he's a flex slot, best case a rb1 if bush gets hurt like he always does. i think he'll settle in somewhere between rb2 and rb3.

 

rivers- after more thought i dont see him passing as much as he did last year and throwing as many td's. i think he well overexceeded his game last year and will fall a bit this year to normalize.

 

ryan -has some serious potential, doesnt carry the high cost and i'll likely use him as a backup qb this year, planning on my qb1 next year.

 

jackson i think again falls into the pick cost is so low that i cant ignore it. like thomas, worst case he's depth. best case a wr2.

 

smith- i'm actually high on smith but am working to trade him and the 5th round that he costs to keep this year for a 3rd round next year.

i'm also trying to ship rivers with an 8th round this year for a 5th round next year to a guy who has not many keeper prospects this year. we'll see how it goes.

 

Given the importance of passing tds in this league a good qb is important. with the extra pick, i'm planning on burning my 3rd round on whichever qb is left from the brady/brees/manning pool or if there's a run, may swipe one with the 2.3 trade pick. either way, i should come out of the 5th round well stocked and potentially stacking next year with an extra early round pick.

[nobody 2,044]

When considering value, you have to also consider that guys are going to be kept, so Kevin Smith is going to go alot higher in the draft. Guys like Steve Slaton, DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Chris Johnson, etc will all be kept at values that will make a lot of players move up a round or two. I say Thomas is a no brainer, and keep Jackson for value after that and then keep Smith.

[akareckas 0]

The only question is Jackson vs Smith. It's a pretty tough call in that jackson is basically free based on the pick you are giving up whereas Smith costs you a 5th which shoudl still offer you a decent player. Personally I'm not a Kevin Smith fan and hate the lions so I'd do Jackson but I can see why you'd go the other way. RBs are hard to come by.

 

In the end I would look at what the other guys are probably going to keep and hang onto whichever commodity is more scarce (Smith or a 5th rounder).