Kent 228 Posted July 23, 2009 I'm having a hard time determining Santonio's value. Is he a possible steal of the draft relative to his ADP? He didn't impress as a #1 during the season but showed his potential in the playoffs. He plays some games like a freak. Speed, size, hands, competitiveness. And then he disappears. Which translates to his ADP. He's never caught more than 55 balls. Never hit 1,000 yards. Never cracked 100 yards in a game last year. Nate Washington is gone. THe Steelers have turned to the pass more and more the past few years. Going RB/RB, is Santonio the WR you take hoping he becomes that legit #1 WR? Is this the year? Any Steelers fans have a read on Santonio this year? I don't know what to make of this guy and I have a hunch he may be a steal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,172 Posted July 23, 2009 I'm having a hard time determining Santonio's value. Is he a possible steal of the draft relative to his ADP? He didn't impress as a #1 during the season but showed his potential in the playoffs. He plays some games like a freak. Speed, size, hands, competitiveness. And then he disappears. Which translates to his ADP. He's never caught more than 55 balls. Never hit 1,000 yards. Never cracked 100 yards in a game last year. Nate Washington is gone. THe Steelers have turned to the pass more and more the past few years. Going RB/RB, is Santonio the WR you take hoping he becomes that legit #1 WR? Is this the year? Any Steelers fans have a read on Santonio this year? I don't know what to make of this guy and I have a hunch he may be a steal. Relative to his ADP he is not a steal at all... His situation reminds me of Deion Branch in so many ways. Deion won the Super Bowl MVP in 2005 after a great game... His 2006 stat line? 53/725/4. His stat line in 2005 before winning the MVP was 78/998/5. His best season of his career and he still failed to eclipse 80 catches or 1000 yards. By comparison, Holmes numbers last year before his SB MVP were 55/821/5. He has also never surpassed 80 catches or 1000 yards in his short career. Everyone is riding Holmes' jock because of his amazing Super Bowl performance but as an owner of him last season I can tell you he was an absolute headache. He did not play well or consistantly all year. One amazing SB does not make a fantasy star. His other post season games were no better unless you count 2/70/1 as great. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
We Tigers 71 Posted July 23, 2009 For at least this season, I think Ward gives you the same or better numbers than Holmes a full 2 rounds later. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kent 228 Posted July 23, 2009 Nice analysis. Thanks. You don't think losing Nate Washington helps him grab an extra 15-20 balls this year? Hines Ward is a year older. Ugh. This guy really is a headache. Maybe its best to avoid him at his current value. I generally go RB/RB in the first two rounds. That first WR I pick is probably the biggest pick in every draft for me. That WR has simply got to produce. I've won leagues the years I grabbed Housh, or Braylon Edwards (his star year), or Brandon Marshall with that pick on their big years. So crucial. Years I bomb are when that WR pick is mediocre or a bust. I pride myself on making the most of that pick. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
enis_44 0 Posted July 23, 2009 Relative to his ADP he is not a steal at all... His situation reminds me of Deion Branch in so many ways. Deion won the Super Bowl MVP in 2005 after a great game... His 2006 stat line? 53/725/4. His stat line in 2005 before winning the MVP was 78/998/5. His best season of his career and he still failed to eclipse 80 catches or 1000 yards. By comparison, Holmes numbers last year before his SB MVP were 55/821/5. He has also never surpassed 80 catches or 1000 yards in his short career. Everyone is riding Holmes' jock because of his amazing Super Bowl performance but as an owner of him last season I can tell you he was an absolute headache. He did not play well or consistantly all year. One amazing SB does not make a fantasy star. His other post season games were no better unless you count 2/70/1 as great. What he said Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,172 Posted July 23, 2009 If your looking to pick a WR in round 3, your at least 1 round earlier than holmes ADP. you should be looking at guys like Bowe, Welker, Owens, Marshall maybe even Colston if he falls. Holmes ADP is 5.06 on FFCalc.com Losing Washington and Ward being a year older are positives I guess, but Branch was Bradys go to guy. At some point Holmes needs to show he can actually produce or those possible extra looks won't mean much of anything. Im not saying he can't become a stud, I just see a resemblance to Branch and for this year I would pass on him as a 5th rounder. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pronghorn3 0 Posted July 23, 2009 Santurdio is an under achiever during the regular season. He blew chunk for me last year and rather take a shot at someone else at his ADP. very talented though, but streaky and lazy! P Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kmbryant09 1 Posted July 23, 2009 I think the Steelers look more to the run this year - we all know the coaching staff wants to, and now they have a healthy Willie Parker, R. Mendanhall, and M. Moore RB combo. Not sure if they upgraded their OLine?? But either way, I think they threw more last year b/c Mendanhall was out and Parker was banged up a lot.... I wouldn't trust Holmes, it seems he gets some hype every year because he has a few big games. He's not a great route runner, and doesn't have the Fitz-type size on the deep balls. Sure he'll catch some long TDs, but I'm guessing he would have broken out by now if he was going to at all. I'd expect another 60/900/5 season Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phurfur 70 Posted July 23, 2009 For at least this season, I think Ward gives you the same or better numbers than Holmes a full 2 rounds later. That is the way I plan to go. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Moz 69 Posted July 24, 2009 I think Holmes has or is taking the mantle of #1 wr in Pittsburgh. I don't see a Branch like season as Holmes in the playoffs became Ben's go to guy.. I cans ee a solid 70 - 1150 - 8 season -- Ward i think regresses some to a 60 - 850 - 7 season. The Pittsburgh WR to watch is Sweed - at 220 and 6'4 he is something they need in the red zone and Nate is no longer there so look for sweed as the #3 and the Red Zone Target. Sweed can also be a solid big play guy as well. I can see a 50 - 700 - 7 stat line for this guy that can be had in last rund of most drafts. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,548 Posted July 24, 2009 I echo what a lot of the other posters said. I over paid for him at an auction last year, but also got Ward cheap just in case. Didn't take long for Ward to become my #2 WR behind AJ and Holmes became a bench/bye/flex player. Course he blows up in the NFL playoffs which doesn't do me a crap of good. Plus his QB is a rapist. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
akareckas 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Holmes on the way up and Ward on the way down is the right way to read this. This year I see them being about the same, with one of them very close to 1000 yards (on the high or low end). I see Holmes peaking between 2010 and 2012 with a 1100 and 8 season but never hitting elite status at any point in his career. Limas Sweed will probably rise up around the time Ward is used up so there will never be a Holmes-as-focal-point season. My 2009 Projections: Holmes - 65 - 860 - 5 Ward - 75 - 920 - 6 You cuold really swap those numbers and I'd be just as happy with them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
