Time to drop Ward and McFadden's Stock?

[Kent 228]

I was a big Ward fan heading into this season. But as this training camp has unfolded, and the coaches have said they'll use both backs the same amount or ride the hot back, I don't know where to rank him.

 

I was lukewarm on McFadden. Which is fairly standard given the RBBC going on in Oak. And I know the Raiders have this deep seeded love for Fargas. Training camp progresses and low and behold, Fargas is atop the depth chart. Buying it? I think I'm buying that one.

 

These two had a clearer picture a few weeks ago that has now been muddied. Stock drop time?

[yostevo 0]

I tend to trust my instincts when things get murky. I try to stay focused on not what I read but what I see and that tells me that Ward is the guy unless he's hurt. He's clearly a more talented all around back.

 

I'm not as convinced about McFadden and never planned on taking him anyways unless ridiculous value presents itself.

[MTSkiBum 1,625]

I tend to trust my instincts when things get murky. I try to stay focused on not what I read but what I see and that tells me that Ward is the guy unless he's hurt. He's clearly a more talented all around back.

 

How is Ward more clearly a talented back than graham? Ward has better stats up to this point but, he played behind the better offensive line with a better passing game. If Ward was clearly the better back he would of gotten alot more money than Graham, yet they both are making the same amount, around 3 million a year.

 

When this offseason started Ward thought he was going to get 4.5 million per year and no one wanted him. Even after he lowered his expectations there wasnt much interest in him. He ended up with a 4 year contract for 16 million but even that is misleading, the contract is back loaded with non-guaranteed money. Which makes it easier to cut him this year or next. Ward is going to be 29 years old at the start of the NFL season.

 

 

I think if both ward and graham stay healthy all season Graham is going to end the year with more touches and better numbers.

[Kent 228]

How is Ward more clearly a talented back than graham? Ward has better stats up to this point but, he played behind the better offensive line with a better passing game. If Ward was clearly the better back he would of gotten alot more money than Graham, yet they both are making the same amount, around 3 million a year.

 

When this offseason started Ward thought he was going to get 4.5 million per year and no one wanted him. Even after he lowered his expectations there wasnt much interest in him. He ended up with a 4 year contract for 16 million but even that is misleading, the contract is back loaded with non-guaranteed money. Which makes it easier to cut him this year or next. Ward is going to be 29 years old at the start of the NFL season.

I think if both ward and graham stay healthy all season Graham is going to end the year with more touches and better numbers.

 

Well, Ward is faster and a better pass catcher. So, he's arguably more talented.

[yostevo 0]

How is Ward more clearly a talented back than graham? Ward has better stats up to this point but, he played behind the better offensive line with a better passing game. If Ward was clearly the better back he would of gotten alot more money than Graham, yet they both are making the same amount, around 3 million a year.

I'll give you that NY's line was better but the passing games are negligible (#16th TB 2007--#18 NYG 2008) so that point is moot. As I mentioned earlier, I actually watch these players and decide for myself. I find Ward to be more explosive with the ball. The #'s don't hurt my evaluations either here.

 

Career totals

 

Both backs are 29 years old

 

Ward ypc 5.1 and has increased every year even with increased carries. In fact, it was 5.6 last year with his most carries ever.

Graham ypc 4.1

 

Ward avg. yards per catch 8.3

Graham avg. yards per catch 6.9

 

You answered your own question as to why Ward didn't get paid more. He's going to be 29 and no one is going pay a first time feature back the way they want to be paid.

[R8RMick 242]

The bottom line is the Bucs went out and got Ward when they had Graham right there all along. And I buy this business about the disparity of the O-lines only so much. Tampa has a very young and nasty O-line, that plays with a definite mean streak.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I never bought into all the D. Ward hype. Yes, Ward is a talented RB who had a great 1000yd+ season last year, but Graham has done nothing but produce since being thrust into the lead back situation at TB a few years ago. So I never saw Ward as a "featured RB, but rather foresaw some type of RBBC from the outset. The only reason I had Ward higher on my list than Graham is that his ADP was (is) going out much higher (4.11) than Graham's (9.12). So on MY list I had Ward (round 5) 3 rounds earlier than Graham (round 8). Now the news out of Tampa Bay has been very good on Cadillac. He's running with good explosion and they are splitting the 1st team practice rep's equally among the 3 backs.

 

I'm definitely going to lower Ward about a round on my draft list, and elevate Graham only slightly. This means that someone else will likely draft Ward, while I'm likely to draft Graham as a RB3/RB4/flex.

 

Caddy, who is not on my board at all at this point (and not on any ADP list either), COULD (but I doubt it) become a late round flier pick for me if he still looks 100% healthy by the end of August when my drafts are held.

[Turcaso 1]

Regarding McFadden - I think he will be used a lot even if not the "feature" back and is a high upside RB3.

[dreadlocks34 0]

The Raiders are a problem because Fargas is pretty good, but Michael Bush is really really good as well. Without injury it seems hard to call this group. Bush is a starting NFL back right now IMO.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Regarding McFadden - I think he will be used a lot even if not the "feature" back and is a high upside RB3.

 

Don't let present starting line-up designations fool you here. Oakland is one of those teams that has a between-the-tackles back and a Reggie Bush type who functions best in space. In this case, the McFadden is the latter type back. If healthy, he will get significantly more touches than Fargas, both as a RB on plays where they can isolate him and on passes. Yes, he does have the most fantasy value by far in this backfield, and especially in PPR scoring.

 

But he still has significant limitations as a true RB, especially poor instincts and pad level between the tackles and absolutely no patience to wait for his blockers. Having said this, I don't see any new reason to adjust him on my board at all.

 

Fargas' value is because he has the most complete RB skill-set - in fact he's a true do-everything good/ nothing great type of back. His fantasy value is limited to late rounds in non-PPR and in PPR he is borderline non-draftable.

 

Bush is a power back that also has significant speed, but somewhat like McFadden, he lacks the complete RB skillset, especially the blitz pick-up skills of a Fargas. This will keep him from getting enough touches to have much fantasy relevance unless Fargas is injured. But if Fargas does get injured, watch out. Given enough touches, this kid can put up fantasy stats in a hurry.

 

There are two almost sure things about the Oakland RB situation: All three backs will contribute - and likely two of the three (if not all three) will be hurt at some point in the season.

[stonewall 647]

Don't forget about the Caddy in the garage.

[R8RMick 242]

I never bought into all the D. Ward hype. Yes, Ward is a talented RB who had a great 1000yd+ season last year, but Graham has done nothing but produce since being thrust into the lead back situation at TB a few years ago. So I never saw Ward as a "featured RB, but rather foresaw some type of RBBC from the outset. The only reason I had Ward higher on my list than Graham is that his ADP was (is) going out much higher (4.11) than Graham's (9.12). So on MY list I had Ward (round 5) 3 rounds earlier than Graham (round 8). Now the news out of Tampa Bay has been very good on Cadillac. He's running with good explosion and they are splitting the 1st team practice rep's equally among the 3 backs.

 

I'm definitely going to lower Ward about a round on my draft list, and elevate Graham only slightly. This means that someone else will likely draft Ward, while I'm likely to draft Graham as a RB3/RB4/flex.

 

Caddy, who is not on my board at all at this point (and not on any ADP list either), COULD (but I doubt it) become a late round flier pick for me if he still looks 100% healthy by the end of August when my drafts are held.

 

 

I think this has turned into the most intriguing RB battle in the league, and I may have changed my tune. Some. Probably the TB coaching staff is looking to turn up the fire, by naming Graham #1 on the depth charts now. They could also be doing that in deference to his veteran status with the team, wanting Ward to beat him out. I have no idea what to think of the Cadillac. I still like Ward.

 

I continue to base more than a little of my take on Fantasy Football Index, who have Ward ranked as their #12 RB. They were one of the last FF fishwraps to hit the stands. Keep in mind his 4yr/$17 mill contract has $6 mill in guaranteed money and his base this season is considerably more than Graham's. Almost twice as much. That's a lot to pay for merely an RBBC back. They MUST have plans for this guy and I'll bet even though he loses carries Ward will catch a ton of passes. He grabbed 41 passes last year for the NYG, and for a big guy excels in the open field. Only two teams threw to the backs more in 2008 than the Bucs, and I see him catching 50 passes this season easy. In PPR leagues this will bump him up.

 

Graham is a horse for sure and I don't put much stock in him not coming back strong from that late-season ankle injury. He doesn't have Ward's speed, but he was slightly more effective in goal line situations. Both players are suited for Tampa's new zone-blocking scheme, but Ward is a classic one-cut-and-go runner. I think Ward's slight edge in physical talent, his better recieving skills (though Graham is no slouch there either), and the fact Tampa's good young O-line should supply plenty of gravy in a RBBC gives an edge to Ward.

[Ray_T 766]

I never bought into all the D. Ward hype. Yes, Ward is a talented RB who had a great 1000yd+ season last year, but Graham has done nothing but produce since being thrust into the lead back situation at TB a few years ago. So I never saw Ward as a "featured RB, but rather foresaw some type of RBBC from the outset. The only reason I had Ward higher on my list than Graham is that his ADP was (is) going out much higher (4.11) than Graham's (9.12). So on MY list I had Ward (round 5) 3 rounds earlier than Graham (round 8). Now the news out of Tampa Bay has been very good on Cadillac. He's running with good explosion and they are splitting the 1st team practice rep's equally among the 3 backs.

 

I'm definitely going to lower Ward about a round on my draft list, and elevate Graham only slightly. This means that someone else will likely draft Ward, while I'm likely to draft Graham as a RB3/RB4/flex.

 

Caddy, who is not on my board at all at this point (and not on any ADP list either), COULD (but I doubt it) become a late round flier pick for me if he still looks 100% healthy by the end of August when my drafts are held.

Graham has never had a year where he has put up 1000 yards.

 

he traditionally gets around 4 yards per carry compared to wards average of around 5 yards per carry.

 

I am sure we are likely looking at a committee approach anyhow, and this likely reduces the value of both of these players. We also dont even know if Cadillac Williams will be in the mix. I say likely not, but you have to acknowledge that the possibility is there.

 

either way, they signed Ward to a free agent deal and from what I understand he is getting pretty good cash. This leads me to believe he will be the starter by default.

 

I wouldnt bet the farm on it, but I'd bet a 4th round pick on him.

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

Ward's ADP is around the 4th rd I believe... and Graham's is around the 10th. I'd likely just take both if I take Ward. But I am not high on either player to be honest.

 

As for McFadden... it's a tough call. Raiders actually showed improvement for the first time in a long time. McFadden certainly is a talent with a large amount of upside, but traditionally I try and steer clear from Raiders.