seh2000 5 Posted August 19, 2009 OK, let's not give Favre the lombardy trophy...but he undoubtedly will have an impact on the vikings and I am primarily concerned about Petersons. I have the #1 overall pick in a PPR league. I've been him hawin' over ADP and Jones Drew...with the PPR primarily being a lean to MJD. Most would say no matter what the scoring...ADP is the true #1...but really? With Favre entering the picture...do you think his receptions will go up from 21 from '09...almost have to say yes, right? So, does ADP's value go UP, Down, or remain the same...and would you draft him #1 overall and not look back...no matter what? Or who do you go with in a PPR league. One othere carrot is that our league gives bonus pts for TD distances. Thanks and here's to a great season! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GBFAVRE4 0 Posted August 19, 2009 Seems like you already know the answer to all the ? you pose... ADP's value has to go up.....More options with a better QB. ADP's receptions will go up...Have to, but seems dedicated to improving on that aspect of his game... ADP should be the #1 in all leagues....especially in leagues with TD bonus pts... Dont look back.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jdon 28 Posted August 19, 2009 it can't hurt, but the impact may be minimal... jdon Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IAMWood 6 Posted August 19, 2009 AP's stock has just risen in any league format. No doubt. As much as the current Minny QBs have been stuggling, Farve will make teams spread the field. No brainer. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bert 1,128 Posted August 19, 2009 It is going to depend on what the arm looks like. If he throws the ball like he did the last 5 games of last year, well, it is the old slow white redneck version of last years QB situation. If he can get past the injury it will increase Peterson's value. FWIW - Sage is/was a big improvement over last years QBs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jujuu 0 Posted August 19, 2009 Rosenfels doesn't throw a good long ball, which would have increased Berrian's value. With Favre in there, the deep ball is more of a factor, and Berrian is a very good deep threat. So that will mean fewer plays with 8 men stacked in the box, which should equate to more running room for ADP. I would also suspect the Vikings would be more likely to run more "safe" passing plays where Favre will dump off to ADP if nothing else is there. And finally, Favre is one of the best "pass-action" fakers in the league, which might freeze safeties/linebackers for a second or so. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kent 228 Posted August 19, 2009 I look at it like this. With Sage and TJ the likelyhood of 3 and outs is greater than with Favre. Favre converting 2 or 3 more first downs a game than those two increases AP's stock a nice amount. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jgcrawfish 232 Posted August 19, 2009 Neither Sage nor Tavaris will command the deepball respect from the defense. Harvin helps ADP with spreading the defense a bit, but Farve + Berrian deep speed + Rice big body = way less guys in the box to stop ADP. I think this almost guarantees that ADP will break long ones a little more frequently and will have a few less stopped for short gains because the defense MUST respect that fact that Farve has no issues with chunking one 40 yrds down the field. Now, in reading the original question, and with the above in mind, the OP said it was PPR. Um, Peterson was the 9th best back in my ppr league last year while being the primary carrier of the rock. MJD was the 5th best back in the same league while doing it part-time and is now the primary carrier for his team. MJD is a 3-down back and has little competition behind him, and is historically much better at finding the endzone than ADP. I personally would take MJD #1 in PPR and would actually consider Forte ahead of AP as well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
seh2000 5 Posted August 20, 2009 I have to say this has been a very insightful thread. Thanks to all and anyone else that may want to tap in on ADP, MJD or other for #1 in a PPR. Leave link. Thanks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
b.j. booker 0 Posted August 20, 2009 Favre is going to turn the ball over a $hit-ton, thus hurting Peterson's value immensely. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
blick 41 Posted August 20, 2009 Favre is going to turn the ball over a $hit-ton, thus hurting Peterson's value immensely. I can't believe that Favre will turn the ball over that much more than Sage or Jackson. Last year, Sage threw 10 ints and 6 TDs in 174 passes. He is also credited for 2 fumbles over that period. Jackson was better in the turn over department, throwing 2 ints and 9 TD's with 2 fumbles. However, in my opinion, he would not have started for the Vikes this year anyway. Conversely, Favre threw 22 ints and 22 TD's in 522 passes with 5 fumbles. So, Sage threw an INT every 17.4 passes while Favre threw one every 23.7 passes. I think you might be over-rating the talent level of Sage/Jackson. Favre's presence should definitely open-up the offense. The questions should really be, Will the additional scoring opportunities created by Favre translate into more fantasy points for ADP, or will Favre spread the ball around to the point ADP's numbers remain about the same or decrease a little? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kennybanya 0 Posted August 20, 2009 I think team's will still stack the box to stop Peterson until Favre proves he can throw downfield consistently and effectively. You don't change your defense to focus less on the league's best running back and focus more on a 40-year-old QB who has serious question marks and missed all of training camp. If Favre does indeed connect downfield consistently while minimizing turnovers, you might see defenses pull one or two guys out of the box by midseason, but not before. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
blick 41 Posted August 20, 2009 I think team's will still stack the box to stop Peterson until Favre proves he can throw downfield consistently and effectively. You don't change your defense to focus less on the league's best running back and focus more on a 40-year-old QB who has serious question marks and missed all of training camp. If Favre does indeed connect downfield consistently while minimizing turnovers, you might see defenses pull one or two guys out of the box by midseason, but not before. So, you are in the camp that ADP's number will remain basically the same? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bert 1,128 Posted August 20, 2009 I can't believe that Favre will turn the ball over that much more than Sage or Jackson. Last year, Sage threw 10 ints and 6 TDs in 174 passes. He is also credited for 2 fumbles over that period. Jackson was better in the turn over department, throwing 2 ints and 9 TD's with 2 fumbles. However, in my opinion, he would not have started for the Vikes this year anyway. Conversely, Favre threw 22 ints and 22 TD's in 522 passes with 5 fumbles. So, Sage threw an INT every 17.4 passes while Favre threw one every 23.7 passes. I think you might be over-rating the talent level of Sage/Jackson. Favre's presence should definitely open-up the offense. The questions should really be, Will the additional scoring opportunities created by Favre translate into more fantasy points for ADP, or will Favre spread the ball around to the point ADP's numbers remain about the same or decrease a little? Farve has thrown more TDs than INTs once since 2005. He is a turn over machine. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bert 1,128 Posted August 20, 2009 I think team's will still stack the box to stop Peterson until Favre proves he can throw downfield consistently and effectively. You don't change your defense to focus less on the league's best running back and focus more on a 40-year-old QB who has serious question marks and missed all of training camp. If Favre does indeed connect downfield consistently while minimizing turnovers, you might see defenses pull one or two guys out of the box by midseason, but not before. Thank gawd someone else understands what Favre is at this point. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
blick 41 Posted August 20, 2009 Farve has thrown more TDs than INTs once since 2005. He is a turn over machine. Understood. I just think people are over-rating Sage's ability. I think Favre will move the offense better than Sage. Both will turn the ball over. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kennybanya 0 Posted August 20, 2009 So, you are in the camp that ADP's number will remain basically the same? Not necessarily. I think the Vikings should manage his workload a little more closely, but ADP is still capable of quite a few more TD's and more receptions. But I would attribute that to his own ability and improvement, not Favre. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bert 1,128 Posted August 20, 2009 Understood. I just think people are over-rating Sage's ability. I think Favre will move the offense better than Sage. Both will turn the ball over. That’s certainly a reasonable opinion. I think Sage would have lost fewer games than Favre is going to for the Vikings. One thing people don't realize about Sage was when he came in last year for Schaub he was trying to do something spectacular in order to win the starting gig. Trying to do too much is what led to both fumbles and several of his INTs. Compounding this problem was his lack of reps with the first team in camp and during the season. I thought Minny was the perfect place for him to go. He could get comfortable with the new offense play behind a great offensive line with the best RB in the game and simply manage the game. Sage has the make up to be a game manager and doesn't have to be the hero. Unfortunately for the Vikings, Favre is not capable of doing this. The Paris Hilton of the NFL cannot be a game manager. He will force longer passes into coverage instead of taking the open 5 yard out. The first part of the schedule no one will care because of the weak team on the schedule but starting in week 7 Favre will start to be exposed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 766 Posted August 20, 2009 This will not affect ADP's value much (if at all) This offense still revolves around ADP and Farves addition will not change this overly much. He will be more of a game manager than a game changer. take ADP's value pre-Farve. Assume that the pass run ratio slides towards passing by 1-2%. Now observe that the lost carries will be regained because there will be less drives stalling on 3rd down. (Farve is pretty effective in 3rd & short situations.) so drives that would have stalled last year will continue this year and he will get more carries which should roughly offset the lost carries due to the shift in the pass/run ratio. I know people are not thrilled with the # of INT's Farve throws, but keep in mind he was playing on a team that is not nearly as good as the one he is on now. It's a lot easier to play conservative when you have the lead as compared to when you are playing from behind. As such, I see Farve taking less chances with the ball. It's still a risk, but not to the same degree that it was last year. on that note: I do not think Farve will set the world on fire in Minnesota. I think he will put up adequate numbers, but not much more than that. he is a step up from what they had.... but not as big a step up as many would have you believe. As far as ADP goes, I project the same numbers (maybe slightly higher if Farve plays well enough to stop teams from stacking the box against ADP) but I do not believe his numbers will go down as a result of this signing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites