cribdog 0 Posted September 11, 2009 I preach this, I'm glad to see it in your post. The problem I have with trends is also the use of time frames. This specific one we're discussing is since 1994. What about favorites of more than 8.5 before 1994? How did they do? If I'm going to see a trend I'll put some faith in, it will be one that looks at the whole picture. I understand the game changes, so what's to say that this won't be another year that we see a change and these teams go 4-0 this weekend? I'll agree that I'm a bit quick to write off all trends, but I certainly believe that a majority of them are not going to help you win. I would love to know how it went before 1994, but unfortunately my database only goes back that far! I am a numbers guy, and so this year I have decided to apply them to my NFL handicapping, and will see how it goes. The nice thing about it is that it takes emotion completely out of it. For instance, I am a Chargers homer, and no way would I ever bet the Raiders against them, but I just may on Monday because of the trend. Whether I do or don't, the problem is that normally there is no way I would because of emotion, and that is something I want to take out of my wagering. When I spotted the trend for this week,I had no idea what teams were favored by that much, so no emotion was involved. I will be analyzing and posting all year, we'll see how it goes. It will be a first for me to wager solely on trends. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kroyrunner89 0 Posted September 11, 2009 I would love to know how it went before 1994, but unfortunately my database only goes back that far! I am a numbers guy, and so this year I have decided to apply them to my NFL handicapping, and will see how it goes. The nice thing about it is that it takes emotion completely out of it. For instance, I am a Chargers homer, and no way would I ever bet the Raiders against them, but I just may on Monday because of the trend. Whether I do or don't, the problem is that normally there is no way I would because of emotion, and that is something I want to take out of my wagering. When I spotted the trend for this week,I had no idea what teams were favored by that much, so no emotion was involved. I will be analyzing and posting all year, we'll see how it goes. It will be a first for me to wager solely on trends. Well I'm glad we have someone like you doing this to be honest. In my experience, trends tell stories of things that happened in the past, but usually hit right around .500 when you track them going forward. I will wish you the best here, I'd be happy to be proven wrong and to see that the right trends can be applied to help people profit. In this business, we need every weapon at our disposal that we can get. Good luck! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Acquitted 0 Posted September 11, 2009 Heh, no trend has a chance of overcoming the "Al Davis" effect!! San Diego rolls in yet another laugher in this rivalry. I got: Minnesota -4 2 units San Diego -9 2.5 units New England -10 1/2 1.5 units I wasn't able to post in time but I won 1 unit on Tennessee +6 1/2 last night Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kroyrunner89 0 Posted September 13, 2009 Week 1 Plays: * San Francisco 49ers +6 I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover. * Atlanta Falcons -4 Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover. * Arizona/SF UNDER 46 This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play. * Green Bay Packers -4 The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up. * New Orleans Saints -13.5 Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory. * Saints/Lions OVER 48 This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing. Good luck Week 1 everyone!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phillybear 364 Posted September 13, 2009 Overall NCAA YTD: 37-21; +26.55 units Subset: 5 unit plays or higher: 16-14; -7.7 units Overall NFL YTD: 1-0; +2.0 units Sunday All for 2 units unless indicated otherwise. Atlanta (-3.5)@-114 WINNER Carolina (+1)@+114 LOSER Cincinnati (-4.5)@-111 for 3 units LOSER Cleveland (+4)@-110 LOSER Houston (-4)@-108 LOSER Tampa Bay (+5.5)@-111 LOSER San Francisco (+6)@-109 WINNER Washington (+7)@-109 WINNER Adding: Seattle (-6.5)@-112 for 5 units WINNER Edit: Overall NCAA YTD: 37-21; +26.55 units Subset: 5 unit plays or higher: 16-14; -7.7 units Overall NFL YTD: 5-5; +1.09 units Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted September 13, 2009 NFL YTD 1-1 - 1 unit Steven Jackson (Rams) Total Receptions - Must Play Over 3.5 (-155) Chris Cooley (Redskins) Total Receptions - Must Play Under 4.5 (-105) Frank Gore (49ers) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play Over 78.5 (-115) Dallas Clark (Colts) Will He Score a Touchdown - Must Play Yes +160 Michael Turner (Falcons) Total Rushing Attempts - Must Play Under 22.5 (-130) Chad Pennington (Dolphins) Total Pass Attempts - Must Play Over 30.5 (-120) Andre Johnson (Texans) Total Receiving Yards - Must Play Under 98.5 (-115) Steve Slaton (Texans) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards - Must Play Under 102.5 (-115) Adrian Peterson (Vikings) Will He Score a Touchdown - Must Play Yes (-180) Winner Jake Delhomme (Panthers) Total Pass Attempts - Must Play Over 28.5 (-115) 2 unitsLoser wow what a focking loser he is Brian Westbrook (Eagles) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards - Must Play Over 88.5 (-115) Donovan McNabb (Eagles) Total Passing Yards - Must Play Over 243.5 (-115) Loser Body Bag Todd Heap (Ravens) Total Receptions - Must Play Over 2.5 (-130) Winner Drew Brees (Saints) Total Touchdown Passes - Must Play Over 1.5 (-230) Winner Adding Sunday Night game Ryan Grant (Packers) Total Rushing Attempts - Must Play Over 20 (even) Aaron Rodgers (Packers) Total Completions - Must Play Over 21.5 (-140) Matt Forte (Bears) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play Over 75.5 (-125) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EAwer 1 Posted September 13, 2009 i think ill keep track this year (until i ###### up). 2units: Jax +7 Cincy -5 1 unit: Atlanta -4 Tampa +5 Wash +7 -120 GBP -4 Gl all Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bouve 0 Posted September 13, 2009 NFL: 1-1 -.5 units Props: 0-0 Parlay: 0-0 Teasers: 0-0 New Orleans -13.5 (115) 2 units New Orleans O31.5 1 unit Minnesota -4 1 unit Minnesota O22 1 unit Miami +4 1 unit Miami O20 1 unit Houston -4 1 unit Teaser #1: Baltimore -6 Carolina +10 Minnesota +3 New Orleans -7 Miami +11 1 unit to win 3.5 units. Teaser #2: San Francisco +12.5 Washington +13.5 St Louis +14.5 Green Bay +2.5 San Diego -3 1 unit to win 3.5 units. Good Luck Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bouve 0 Posted September 13, 2009 Tonights Action: Green Bay O24.5 4 units Green Bay -5 2 units Green Bay -3 1st half 1 unit Green Bay/Chicago O46 2 units Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GridIronAssassin#1 0 Posted September 14, 2009 Down 10 units today I'll wait for half time and then bet on the Pack/Bears game Green Bay is favored by 5 and the total is at 47 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GridIronAssassin#1 0 Posted September 14, 2009 2nd half Chicago Bears EVEN 10 units WINNER I'm thinking Cutler can't play any worse. It seems like the Chicago defense is holding pretty well. The one touchdown on a defensive interception, then Ryan Grant runs in seemed cheap. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GridIronAssassin#1 0 Posted September 14, 2009 Monday night is next! Buffalo @ New England -11 total 47 San Diego @ Oakland +10 total 42.5 I'm leaning towards Buffalo and the points and San Diego minus the points. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kroyrunner89 0 Posted September 14, 2009 6-0 to start the season, I'd like to thank the Packers for the lucky cover. I'm sure breaks like that will even out along the way, but nice to have one go for me. I may have a play for tomorrow, I haven't decided yet. I'll post it up tomorrow afternoon if I decide on something! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bouve 0 Posted September 14, 2009 Rough 2 weeks in NCAA and a rough week 1 in NFL. I am all in tonight on the following, double up or re-load time. New England -7 1st half 10 units New England TT O28.5 10 units Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kroyrunner89 0 Posted September 14, 2009 After some consideration I've decided I will not be making any plays on tonight's games. I have absolutely no read on the Oakland vs. San Diego game, so obviously that's one I'm staying away from. The other game, Patriots vs. Bills, is a much tougher one for me to avoid. Over 47 is a very tempting play for me, but I just don't feel like I know enough about these teams yet to go ahead and make it a play. In the end, I just have too many unanswered questions so I'm going to pack in the 6-0 week and get ready for next weekend! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,542 Posted September 14, 2009 As a Bills "homer" I would not put any money on the Bills with all those points or the over in this game. Sure Pats may score 38 but who knows what the Bills will do. I could be totally wrong and the Bills could keep it close enough to score a garbage TD and cover, but the O-Line sucks, Trent Edwards has looked bad, and the D doesn't matchup well with NE. I'm staying away from both games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
edjr 5,567 Posted September 14, 2009 I got your unit right here Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,172 Posted September 14, 2009 Parlay Vikings -4 W Packers -3.5 W Chargers -9 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ramz04 21 Posted September 14, 2009 Week 1 Plays: * San Francisco 49ers +6 I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover. * Atlanta Falcons -4 Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover. * Arizona/SF UNDER 46 This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play. * Green Bay Packers -4 The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up. * New Orleans Saints -13.5 Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory. * Saints/Lions OVER 48 This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing. Good luck Week 1 everyone!!! Impressive Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted September 14, 2009 NFL YTD UGLY 6-12 -7.68 Units Wes Welker (Patriots) Total Receiving Yards - Must Play Over 78.5 (even) Tom Brady (Patriots) Longest Completion - Must Play Over 42.5 (-115) Tom Brady (Patriots) Total Touchdown Passes - Must Play Over 2.5 (-125) Bills - Will They Ever Have The Lead vs the Patriots No -110 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GridIronAssassin#1 0 Posted September 14, 2009 Rough 2 weeks in NCAA and a rough week 1 in NFL. I am all in tonight on the following, double up or re-load time. New England -7 1st half 10 units New England TT O28.5 10 units It'd be kind of nice to lower that New England total by one point. They should score 31 or more but it's nice to have a cusion. Hard to say with NE -7 in the first half. I think I'll wait until halftime and see if something looks good. My intitial instinct on the sides is that one dog covers and one favorite covers on tonight's games. Or if you only want to make a percentage on your money, parlaying both moneylines looks like a sure thing. Good luck Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GridIronAssassin#1 0 Posted September 14, 2009 lines seem to be moving=> Buffalo @ New England -13.5, total 48 San Diego @ Oakland +10, total 42.5 No patience here... I was going to wait until half time, but I think I'll go with Buffalo +7.5 for the 1st half. I'm banking on the fact that New England's defense in fantasy football last year ranked only 20th and Buffalo's was only 2 behind it at 22nd. With Owens in the mix, trying to show up Moss, I think Buffalo surprises people here. 1st Half Buffalo +7.5, 5 units WINNER Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ToledoLurch 0 Posted September 14, 2009 I am drinking the Brady kool-aid... New England -12.5 for 1 unit Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kroyrunner89 0 Posted September 14, 2009 Good luck to all the Patriots backers. I saw one guy who had the Bills first half, may not be an awful bet, Pats could easily start slow. As for the whole game though, I think if you have to be on a side, the Pats side is the safest to be on Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phillybear 364 Posted September 14, 2009 Overall NCAA YTD: 37-21; +26.55 units Subset: 5 unit plays or higher: 16-14; -7.7 units Overall NFL YTD: 5-5; +1.09 units Monday Buffalo (+13)@-105 for 3 units WINNER Edit: Overall NCAA YTD: 37-21; +26.55 units Subset: 5 unit plays or higher: 16-14; -7.7 units Overall NFL YTD: 6-5; +4.09 units Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
new-guru 0 Posted September 15, 2009 Philly please post earlier Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phillybear 364 Posted September 15, 2009 Philly please post earlier I got home 30 minutes prior to kick off, and the site was moving slower than molasses in a freezer by the time I got the post up. Edit: I actually didn't decide on Buffalo until I saw the final line. Much like adding Seattle yesterday about 15 minutes prior to kickoff when I saw Seattle dip down to 6.5. I'll try to be much punctual. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GridIronAssassin#1 0 Posted September 15, 2009 the halftime line has moved from Buffalo +8.5 to Buffalo +9.5. This is crazy. Everybody likes New England to win by at least one touchdown. I'm going to lay low until possibly the 4th quarter. I'm looking to get something where New England only has to win even up. The number is at 24 for the 2nd half, so nothing special there. So, I'm passing at this point until the 4th quarter. I can't find a place where I could make a 4th quarter bet on this game. So, I guess I'm done with this game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GridIronAssassin#1 0 Posted September 15, 2009 2ndQuarter SanDiego -4 , 5 units WINNER Should've been a loss, but in the last few seconds I was saved by a mysterious reversed call from the officials upstairs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cribdog 0 Posted September 15, 2009 In doing a little research, since 1994 teams favored by 8.5 or more have gone 7-20 against the spread on the first weekend, including 0-3 last year (NE-KC, Indy-Chi, SD-Car), so with that in mind, I am taking all of the big dogs. Kansas City vs Baltimore -13 Detroit vs New Orleans -13 St Louis vs Seattle -9 Buffalo vs New England -10.5 San Diego -9 vs Oakland Well, the trends took me to 2-2, with a real unfortunate loss on KC. St. Louis was thrown out as that line dropped well under 8.5. Let's get 'em next week! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MTSkiBum 1,594 Posted September 15, 2009 Philadelphia -1 At Carolina 43 for 1 unitMinnesota -4 At Cleveland 40 for 1 unit At Houston -4.5 NY Jets 43 for 1 unit At Green Bay -3.5 Chicago 46 for 2 units At New England -10.5 Buffalo over 47.5 for 6 units San Diego -9.5 At Oakland 43 for 1 unit 4-2 for 8 units Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
