Top 55 dynasty RBs

[madd futher mucker 36]

Given the blow-out by the Vikes, I got this done much sooner than I expected to.

 

As I stated in my QBs list, Chris Wesseling (Rotoworld) has one of the best rankings for dynasty that I've seen. But I disagreed with Chris quite often regarding his RB list so again I 'tweeked' his version to create my own ranking. You can find Chris' original version at Rotoworld. But here's mine (keep in mind that this is not a re-draft ranking):

 

DYNASTY RUNNING BACKS

 

Tier One

1. Chris Johnson Titans | Age: 25.0 – A once a generation RB with his combination of sick speed, moves, and quick-cutting ability. The answer to the question of whether V Young would do more harm than good was answered definitively in the final 10 games. Despite the yards from scrimmage record and his 2009 rushing title at a whopping 582 more yards than his closest competitor, Johnson has gotten skepticism because of his body size. To set the record straight, many bigger backs have shorter careers than backs of Johnson's stature.

 

2. Adrian Peterson Vikings | Age: 25.6 – You can't be faulted if you stick to your guns on ADP as the No. 1 back. While he saw a drop-off in attempts, yards, and YPC, he more than made up for it with a two-fold increase in receptions and a league-high 18 TDs. Could he put it all together in 2010? With all of the attention on his second-half slump and declining yards per carry, it went unnoticed that Peterson shattered his best fantasy season this year. His receptions have risen steadily from 19 to 21 to 42 – just four fewer than Chris Johnson (and eight fewer than Frank Gore and Steven Jackson).

 

3. Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars | Age: 25.6 – In his four-year career, MJD has averaged 14 TDs, 50 receptions, and 4.7 YPC mostly in part-time work. The focal point of the Jags offense, Jones-Drew's value is as safe as it gets.

 

4. Ray Rice, Ravens | Age: 23.8 – Drawing comparisons to a faster Emmitt Smith, Rice was the best receiving back in the league, an explosive runner, and a very good blocker. The hand-wringing over the lack of goal-line carries is reminiscent of Chris Johnson last season. Rice's 45 touchdowns in his last two seasons at Rutgers suggest he can handle the role just fine.

 

Tier Two

5. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers | Age: 23. 6 – He’s a physical freak whose talent alone would put him comfortably in the top tier. Has he made DeAngelo Williams expendable on the cap-strapped Panthers? It's a sentiment gaining steam of late, but the Panthers won’t easily part with impact players, especially one with a salary as low as Williams' $725K. Though DeWill isn't likely to depart this season, his contract is up in 2011.

 

6. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers | Age: 27.5 – It's not that Williams isn't one of the best backs in the league; he is. The problem is he's going to spend at least one more year in his prime splitting carries with J-Stew.

 

7. Frank Gore, 49ers | Age: 27.4 – Concerns about his injury history and workload in a potential spread offense are severely overblown. A do-everything back who finished fifth in fantasy points despite missing almost three full games, he actually bettered Ray Rice in points per week.

 

8. Steven Jackson, Rams | Age: 27.2 – S-Jax is the case for special talent as the trump card in Dynasty leagues. With a floor so high that he's producing quality numbers in a sunk offense, he's the perfect example of why studs have to be ranked highly regardless of situation. Remember that the next time somebody tells you that Calvin johnson isn't an elite dynasty receiver.

 

Tier Three

9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs | Age: 23.9 - To quote Todd Haley: "We started by saying that this was a 15-carry per game guy. He's forced us to think differently about him." I'm trying to pick apart his game and his situation to find a major concern, but I've come up empty. Charles is a 23-year-old feature back with the second-most fantasy points over the second-half of the season on top of 5.9(!) YPC and natural pass-catching skills. What's not to like?

 

10. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers | Age: 23.3 – Mendenhall's downhill, physical style is a natural fit for the Steelers offense, and he surprisingly pushed Mewelde Moore out of the third-down role down the stretch. He's an every-down back heading into a 2010 season in which the Steelers want to re-establish the running game.

 

11. Beanie Wells, Cardinals | Age: 22.1 - He ran like a man possessed over the second half of the season, punishing tacklers and refusing to go down on first contact. He's been described as 95 percent of Adrian Peterson, which isn't as ridiculous as it sounds at first blush.

 

12. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos | Age: 23.2 – Moreno is a chain-mover with impressive success rates and few negative plays. What killed his value was that defenses didn't respect the passing game and the offensive line fell apart. McDaniels is weeding out the Shanahan guys, so the offense will start to go through Moreno instead of Marshall. He won't always be paired with Buckhalter; so his production should be more consistent and his receptions will skyrocket. Expect borderline RB1 production for the next five years.

 

13. Michael Turner, Falcons | Age: 28.7 – Backs in their age-28 seasons usually receive a downgrade because most of their value is tied up in the past as opposed to the future. Turner can still put forth a dominant season in 2010, but is that worth giving up five years of production from a younger back?

 

14. Felix Jones, Cowboys | Age: 23.4 – Can the Cowboys really keep him on the bench after he showed what he could do with 15+ touches against the Eagles last week? Jones still has questions to answer about workload and fragility, but his playmaking ability makes him a fantasy asset with 12-15 touches per week.

 

15. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants | Age: 24.6 – Built like a change of pace back, but runs like he's an iron head. Even with an injured foot (feet?), Bradshaw was far more effective than his backfield partner Brandon Jacobs.

 

Tier Four

16. Jerome Harrison, Browns | Age: 27.7 – He's a virtual lock to enter 2010 as the Browns' starter, but keep in mind that Harrison's amazing finish to the 2009 season came against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Jags defenses.

 

17.Shonn Greene, Jets | Age: 25.1 - Showed great short-area quickness and finished his runs with authority, pushing Thomas Jones to the side against the Bengals last week. Jones is expected to return to the Jets in 2010, so Greene may have to wait another year for weekly fantasy value.

 

18. Pierre Thomas, Saints | Age: 25.9 – . His effectiveness is undeniable. We'd all like to see Pierre used more often, but the root of the issue is that Sean Payton is convinced Thomas can't handle a full workload without getting nicked up.

 

19. Donald Brown, Colts | Age: 23.5 – His injury-plagued rookie season isn't going to have the Colts in a hurry to part ways with Addai. Brown will have to prove he can hold up as an NFL back before his workload increases.

 

20. LeSean McCoy, Eagles | Age: 22.2 - His rookie season was a mixed bag. When Westbrook first went down, McCoy was given the opportunity to take the job and run with it. Instead, he forced the coaches to work Leonard Weaver into the mix. While he's already an asset in PPR leagues, he may turn out to be more of a committee back instead of a Westbrook clone.

 

21. Darren Sproles, Chargers | Age: 27.3 – When he gets the ball in his hands, he flat-out produces fantasy points. while he Chargers' 2010 backfield is up in the air, it's easy to picture Sproles in a similar role to the one he's had the past two seasons, but with an increase in touches.

 

Tier Five

22. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins | Age: 28.9 – He remains one of the best all-around talents at the position, but he just can't stay healthy for a full season. Brown will be close to 29 years old and coming off another major injury going into next season. And Ricky Wiliams isn't going anywhere.

 

23. Ryan Grant, Packers | Age: 27.9 – Grant is a very good open-field runner who still struggles at times to read his blocks and should never be used in the passing game. Grant finished No. 8 in fantasy points on the season, slamming the door on speculation that his starting job is in jeopardy. The Packers' high-scoring offense gives him a value boost.

 

24. Cedric Benson, Bengals | Age: 27.9 - Bears fans can't believe it. The Cincinnati Benson bears little resemblance to the Chicago Benson, and he's running with authority and explosiveness behind a heavy workload. Benson is a free agent after next season.

 

25. Marion Barber, Cowboys | Age: 27.3 – Injuries adversely affected his production for the second straight year, enough so that felix Jones is threatening to take over as the feature back. Since signing his big-money deal, MBIII's per-carry average has dropped by half a yard, he's fumbling twice as often, and his TD percentage has been cut in half.

 

26. Darren McFadden, Raiders | Age: 23.1 - An injury-prone timeshare back in an offense held hostage by the quarterback, McFadden has left far too much yardage on the field the past two seasons. Now is the ideal time to buy low if you were ever a true believer.

 

27. Joseph Addai Colts | Age: 27.4 – Addai has always been a player who derived too much value out of situation and not enough out of talent. That remains the case, and he stands to lose a lot of value through the 2010 season if Donald Brown can stay healthy.

 

28. Matt Forte, Bears | Age: 24.9 – Poor Forte received no help from his offensive line, but neither did Jamaal Charles. While Forte is solid across the board, there's just nothing special about his talent. No longer the offensive centerpiece, it's hard to consider him a nucleus player in Dynasty circles with a 3.6 YPC and major red-zone issues.

 

29. Fred Jackson, Bills | Age: 29.7 – The Bills offense simply runs better with Jackson as the main man. F-Jax is a superior receiver, arguably a more explosive runner, and does a fine job in short-yardage. If his new head coach decides to put production ahead of pedigree, F-Jax will remain the feature back.

 

30. Marshawn Lynch, Bills | Age: 24.5 - Dynasty owners didn't draft him to be a time-share back. In addition to his off-the field problems, Lynch has been out-produced by his backup for two straight seasons. I wouldn't want to count on the new coaching staff liking him better than F-Jax, especially since Jackson certainly appears to be the better player.

 

31. Brandon Jacobs, Giants | Age: 28.2 – Jacobs just isn't getting it done. There's no question that he was a slower, more plodding back in 2009, but his disappointing season also served as a useful reminder that bigger backs are much more reliant on their blocking. Jacobs' value is wrapped up in touchdowns, which is troublesome with Bradshaw out-producing him in the red zone. If you're not scared off by aging, injury-prone running backs who don't catch passes, buy low.

 

32. Reggie Bush, Saints | Age: 25.6 - Bush is a talented but injury-prone role player in the Saints offense. He could end up with more playing time outside of New Orleans, but how much value can he have without the ability or the willingness to run forward?

 

Tier Six

33. Michael Bush, Raiders | Age: 26.3 – The Raiders coaches have no idea how to evaluate running back talent. Despite being shoe-horned into a fullback role last season and neglected this season, Bush still has the three best rushing performances of the past year and a half. Bush owners should hope for achange of scenery or a coaching change.

 

34. Tashard Choice, Cowboys | Age: 25.10 – More effective than an injury-plagued Marion Barber for the second straight season.

 

35. Willis McGahee, Ravens | Age: 28.11 – Expected to be a cap casualty in Baltimore, and his Week 17 performance against the Raiders may have been enough to earn him the greater share of a committee job in 2010. He'll be bringing fresh legs wherever he lands.

 

36. Steve Slaton, Texans | Age: 24.8 - He is a passing-down, change-of-pace back masquerading as a lead back. Slaton could easily become a back in the vein of Willie Parker and Addai, where the coaches continue to take pieces of responsibility away from him until he's nothing more than complementary part. Such is the case in Houston, where the Texans are expected to add an early-down back early in this year's draft.

 

37. Chester Taylor, Vikings | Age: 31.0 – Taylor is due to hit unrestricted free agency at age 31. While he's obviously one of the top backups in the game, he's a long-shot to land his own starting gig in 2010.

 

38. Tim Hightower, Cardinals | Age: 24.4 - Was never a good bet to maintain value once the team drafted Beanie Wells, and he may be losing flex value as well. Has value as a role player who can catch the ball out of the backfield.

 

39. Laurance Maroney, Patriots | Age: 25.7 - Maroney had his final chance to be "the man" in New England, and he may have again fumbled it away. He's a committee back with an injury history, and a reputation for running east/west and for dancing at the line.

 

40. Thomas Jones, Jets | Age: 32.1 - The passing of the torch? Jones has been phenomenal the past two seasons, far surpassing expectations while laughing in the face of the age-30 running back decline. But Shonn Greene is coming like a freight train.

 

Tier Seven

41. Justin Forsett, Seahawks | Age: 24.11 – A very good NFL role player. But assuming he gets a shot at the lead-back job, he's not likely to hold onto it for multiple seasons.

 

42. Arian Foster, Texans | Age: 24.1 – He played well when given a shot at the starting job. He’s not a special talent, but Foster averaged nearly a full yard more per carry than Ryan Moats and a yard and a half more than Slaton. With nice hands and after-the-catch ability, he has a chance to become the starter in Kubiak's one-cut-and-go system.

 

43. Leon Washington, Jets | Age: 28.1 – He’d be ranked higher, but we don't know how much speed and cutting ability he left on the operating table after he suffered a double open fracture to his right leg.

 

44. Bernard Scott, Bengals | Age: 26.7 – Check out his age. Scott is an intriguing talent, but he's already 26 years old and sitting behind a better back in Benson.

 

45-46-47-48-49 . D J Ware, Giants; Jalen Parmele, Baltimore; Jason Snelling, Atlanta; Brandon Jackson, Green Bay; Aaron Brown, Detroit - All young guys who have decent talent and are in a position to be primary back-ups in 2010.

 

Special Situation - Potential One Year Rentals

 

50. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers | Age: 28.5 – Caddy may have been deserving of the Comeback Player of the Year award, but his fantasy ceiling is limited by the Bucs' rotation. In spite of his significant injury history, he may have a few productive years left.

 

51. Brian Westbrook, Eagles | Age: 31.0 - The Eagles will likely bring him back at a reduced salary. Westbrook can still play effectively, but the Eagles' reluctance to use him in the playoff loss raises questions.

 

52. Ricky Williams. Dolphins | Age: 33.3 - The most interesting character in the NFL over the past decade. Who knows what he has in store for his next act in 2010?

 

53. Ladainian Tomlinson, Chargers | Age: 31.3 - The trademark explosiveness is gone. You can forget about the retirement talk, but LT is likely playing out his last San Diego hurrah over the next few weeks. Where he lands in 2010 in anyone's guess.

 

54. Clinton Portis, Redskins | Age: 29.0 - Running on empty. Portis can't stay on the field, he's ineffective when he does play. and his work ethic is being called into question.

 

Special Situation - High Risk

 

55. Kevin Smith, Lions | Age: 23.9 - Smith proved that his toughness was beyond question in playing through a shoulder separation, before his gruesome knee injury. With every ligament completely torn in his knee, he's unlikely to play effectively in the 2010 season. But given his youth and talent, don’t write him off completely.

[kmbryant09 1]

I think it's a great list...

 

-I'd probably have Rice ahead of MJD because he's 2 years younger and MJD has an extra 2 years of wear and tear.

-Jamaal Charles has got to be #5. I know it's a little pre-mature, but watching him run looked like I was watching Chris Johnson. His combination of speed, elusiveness, and BALANCE really separates him from most other RB's. He's gotta be ahead of Gore & S. Jackson for two simple reasons - age and health. Both Gore and Jackson have experienced injuries over their careers, both in college and in the NFL. Charles is 3.5 years younger than those 2. At nearly 27-28, most RB's have only 2-3 more seasons of high productivity at the most. Add in that both of these backs have handled a substantial workload for years...I'll take the younger, fresher back. I'm actually a little tempted to put other youngsters such as B. Wells and R. Mendanhall ahead of these 2.

-At this point, I think DWill and Stewart are almost unrankable. If one gets dealt in the off-season, Stewart is a top6-7 back, and DWill is still a top 15 back. But if both are in Carolina blue next season, I find it hard to rank EITHER inside the top 10. I think Stewart would be borderline because of his age, both just need better situations.

[Raider 84 29]

I think it's time to start moving S. Green up the rankings. He looks like the real deal behind an awesome O-line. T. Jones will be 33+ or possible out of NY next year.

[dmac37 1]

Overall I like how you ranked them compared to Chris W. but here are the ones I do not agree with:

 

Harrison too high at 16, 2010 maybe but not long term

McFadden too high at 25, I still say he is more track star than football player

 

Forte was way too high going into this year but 27 is too low moving ahead

Benson was the only bright spot in the playoff game for the Bengals. He has produced for 1 1/2 years now, 28 is too low for a solid feature back with or with out past problems.

[Mike Honcho 4,154]

One question, exactly what's the timeline for these guys, ie...how long do they have to perform? Few of these guys that are pretty high on the list aren't going to outperform some guys lower for 2/3 years maybe. Some of the lower guys might reel off 2/3 years before they hit the wall.

 

List looks decent from a 5 year perspective, but if you were looking at 2 to 3 years(plenty of time to draft the next RB for your dynasty team) that it seems to be based a little too much on long-term potential.

[Gepetto 1,008]

Jonathan Stewart is too high. He's a backup to DeAngelo Williams for a few more years, unless one is traded.

[Vikings4ever 496]

One guy who may be overlooked after this year is the Whale.

 

He's still very young (25), and doesn't have a lot of milage on him. He's effective at the goal line, and is clearly big enough to carry the ball 20 times a game.

 

His role on the team diminished as he was outdone by a superior back, but with him being a free agent, I think he still has some dynasty value.

[Fumbleweed 451]

It's important to note that these comments were also taken from RotoWorld. You did cite the source, which is obviously a must...but I just wanted to clarify about the comments next to each player as well. They are Wesserling's comments, not the thread starter's.

[Raider 84 29]

Stewart will out produce D Williams again and should get more tds next year. I think #5 is about right, but has potential to be higher.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Yes, for the most part, the comments were Chris Wesseling's (although I did edit some of his player comments).

 

Even though I don't agree with his complete order of ranking players - as no one will agree completely with my rankings either - I can't emphasize how much I admire Chris' dynasty perspective. And Chris really makes some very astute and concise observations about each player - after all, he IS a professional (and award-winning) football writer. So it is very much out of respect for him that I used his rankings as a 'jumping off' point. Frankly it was much easier to begin by using his list (and comments) than to put my own together from scratch.

 

But regarding the rankings themselves, I re-arranged several players - and even omitted some of his that I thought he was either too high or too low on (for example- he had Lendale White at #48) . So the rankings reflect my views, not Chris's.

 

I do agree with dmac37 that Benson is too low. Benson left such a bad taste in my mouth with the Bears that I've never quite gotten to trust him. But on further review, I'd say he should be right below Grant at 24th, and I'd move Barber, McFadden, Addai, and Forte each down a spot. (My edit now reflects that view.)

 

I'm much higher on Harrison than either dmac37 or Wesseling are, and i like him pretty much where he is. I also think that for dynasty purposes I'd rather have J-Stew than De Will - and I don't believe that they will continue to share carries after the 2010 season. But both have been 1000 yd backs EVEN WHEN they are sharing carries. And yes, I'd keep both of them in tier 2 at this point.

 

Regarding Honcho's great question about time-frame, well, that goes to the crux of dynasty strategy. Ideally, you would like to have all highly productive YOUNG players like C Johnson, MJD, and Ray Rice. But those birds are very rare. And you just never know who is going to be the next late blooming but long career players Ricky Williams or Thomas Jones versus who will be the next Kevin Smith.

So it's a crap-shoot, and trade-offs must constantly be made between raw talent, age and current situation and productivity. But when you can only draft 3 or 4 rookies per year onto 22-24 man rosters, you don't have the luxury of re-stocking rosters too often. Whoever makes the least mistakes and has the most studs in place for longer time-frames will generally be the most successful. That is what makes dynasty leagues such a challenge.

 

Lastly regarding the "FatWhale": Yes he's lost weight. But IMO he's a less than average talent who I'd slot with some other RBs that I left off my list such as Chris Brown, Justin fargas, Earnest Graham, Julius Jones, Ward (to name a few) who I regard right now as essentially 'roster fillers' on dynasty teamss - but personally, I'd rather take a chance for the end of MY dynasty bench on a younger, more untested but reasonably talented 2nd or 3rd stringer like D J Ware or Jalen Parmele, than known mediocre commodities like Lendale White. Most every dynasty team has a few LenDale types on it - but this is usaully by accident - because somebody initially mis-assessed and thought he was getting a potential future star. But in dynasty, these type guys have just about zero real or trade value. BTW, White was beaten out by Rashad Jennings, who didn't make this list either (but perhaps he should have made it at #48, at the expense of Brandon Jackson and Aaron Brown.

 

So I'll give LenDale an 'honorary' ranking of 65 instead of Wesseling's ranking of 48.

 

Keep the comments coming.