My pre-combine RB rankings!

[madd futher mucker 36]

Here is my pre-combine RB rankings (with absolutely no cut and paste!) The RB group is a much better than last year’s class. It is a strong deep group, and I think many on this list will eventually have some level of success in the NFL I wasn’t going to publish this until after the combine, given that it starts next week anyway, but I decided to do it because I have changed my mind at the very top, and I think he will have a great combine as well.

 

Two dsclaimers: This list has no relation to where these guys will be drafted, but is what I see as thier potential for value for dynasty purposes. Secondly, so much depends on the team and situation that they ultimately will be drafted into. But here goes:

 

TIER 1 - These two TIER 1 guys will likely be successful regardless of what team or system they are drafted into IMO. After those two, MUCH depends on team and system.

 

1. RB CJ Spiller, Clemson 5’ 11” 195 - I tried not to like him this much because he has marginal power and is a raw blocker , but then I went back and watched a couple games and watched his YouTube highlights. I see a special back here - some of the same things I saw a few years back in Chris Johnson (who I took in the 5th round ahead of Lendale White his rookie year, and drafted as a rookie in two leagues). He’s got the whole package - quicks, vision, raw speed. Like (Johnson and Jamaal Charles) he is just barely big enough to take it up the middle consistently, but he can squeeze through small creases so it is very difficult to get a clean hit on him.

 

2. Ryan Mathews, Fresno State 5’ 11” 220 - I still love this guy. He’s just a natural runner who can fit any system - very good size speed combo with good vision, instincts, balance, and toughness. He hasn‘t had to do much as a receiver out of the backfield so his receiving skill is a question mark.

 

TIER 2

 

3. Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech 5’ 11” 235 - He reminds me of Michael Turner. Great size/speed ratio. He has had almost no experience as a receiver and in pass protection, and doesn’t show the vision, elusiveness and balance of Ryan Mathews.

I think his success will be more defined by the system he plays in than the top two - who as I mentioned, I believe will have very good succeess in just about any system. With Dwyer, I'm also concerned that he may have to continually battle a weight issue.

 

4. Toby Gerhart, Stanford 6’ 1” 235 - He does not have top notch explosiveness, but is a punishing runner who has an extra gear when he gets past the line. He is a more advanced blocker and while he wasn’t used much as a receiver, he catches the ball with is hands. He is almost like a fullback with speed. He is a very hard working competitive kid who will be dedicated to his career. I think there is some Michael Bush and Jamal Lewis (in his good years) in his game.

 

5. Joique Bell, Wayne State 5’ 11” 223 - I didn’t know much about “Joyk” until the Senior Bowl, because he is a Division 3 back. But he has the explosiveness, size, speed and ‘wiggle’ to get it done in the NFL. Like many on this list, he may be a project due to his lack of experience in the passing game.

 

6. Dexter McCluster 5’8 165 Mississippi - this is about the right place for ‘mighty mite”….He WILL be a great return guy. Is he a RB? Is he a WR? One thing is certain - he knows how to use his small size to his advantage, and he will be the most explosive player on the field most of the time. Comparisons with guys like Sproles, DeSeam Jackson and Harvin are very warranted here.

 

TIER 3

 

7. Jahvid Best, Cal 5’ 10” 195 - Many have him higher because he‘s so explosive - he is exceptionally quick and has well above average but not elite speed. Decent hands, but because he is a liability as a blocker he was often not on the field for passing downs . He just does not run with much power and won‘t break or run through too many tackles. Shades of Shady McCoy here.

 

8. RB Stafon Johnson, USC 5’ 11” 214 - Johnson is not quite as explosive and his fellow RB Joe McNight, but has a better rounded overall skill-set - a combination of very good speed, agility, instincts, vision - and an NFL every down body. He runs with his pad level too high, but that can be corrected. He may project as a better pro than his his college career indicates. Probably a mid- round pick with early round upside. He reminds some of Pierre Thomas.

 

9. Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State 6’1” 245 - Notice how many 6”1” 245 Rbs are in this draft. Dixon has nice burst and agility - a very polished runner who only he lacks top end speed. He’s a good receiver and an aggressive blocker. He’s another guy who I could see outperforming his draft slot.

 

10. Joe McKnight, USC 6’ 190” - He has elite speed AND explosiveness - is very light on his feet. He is such a good receiver that he could play the position in the NFL. While he also is a willing blocker in the passing game with good technique for his frame, he dances too much in the backfield, runs too upright and lacks power to run between the tackles, so he tries to bounce almost everything outside. May be a poor man’s Regie Bush.

 

TIER 4

 

11. Monterio Hardesy 6’0” 215 Tennessee

He is a North-South runner with quick feet, great vision and cutback ability. Runs with energy and always finishes every run. At about 4.55 he has good, but not breakaway speed. He also has excellent hands as a receiver out of the backfield. Expect him to make an impact as an NFL RB.

 

12. Dimitri Nance 5’10” 218 Arizona State - I see him as a slightly smaller version of Shonn Greene - A punishing runner with low pad level and good burst and footwork. He will be the power back in a RBBC - I don’t see him on the field on 3rd downs. He did not get a Combine invite.

 

13. Keith Toston 6’ 214 Oklahoma State - Nice instinctive and under-rated runner with decent speed, agility, and balance.

 

14. Legarrette Blount 6’ ½” 245 Oregon - For a big man, Blount has exceptional quickness. He compares to Brandon Jacobs in that he moves very well straight ahead, but loses momentum when he has to change direction - he has very limited lateral ability. He’s a strong blocker, and unlike Jacobs will be more than adequate catching passes out of the backfield. He also comes with enough character issues to make teams think twice before drafting him.

 

15. Ben Tate, Auburn 5’ 11” 218 - He’s a North-South no-nonsense runner who likes to run through, rather than around defenders. He does have above average speed.

 

TIER 5

 

16. Curtis Steele, 6' 195 Memphis - Good hands as a receiver, and very good ability as a runner. Needs work on pass protection.

 

17. Dominique Lindsay, 5’10 205 East Carolina - A high effort slasher with plenty of burst and power who fights for maximum yardage on every play. He should also be decent in the passing game. A sleeper.

 

18. James Starks 6’ 2” 217 Buffalo

Stark's draft stock and fantaly potential will largely be determined at the Combine, as he ended his collegiate career with a surgery for a torn labrum. He has versatility as a runner AND a receiver (52 catches in 2008 along with over 1300 rushing yards) along with ADP-like size. Some project him to run in the high-4.4 range, which will cause his stock to soar.

 

19. Lamarcus Coker, 5‘11“ 205 Hampton - No, not the Hampton Inn. Coker started ahead of Arian Foster at Tennessee until he was kicked off the team (ironically, given his last name) for violating the drug policy testing positive for the weed not just once, but FOUR times. Coker is this year’s Bernard Scott. Character issues have been the pattern of his life. On the football field he’s a RB who can get it done. He’s a gifted athlete with elite speed (sub 4.3) awesome burst, and exceptional quickness, a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball.

Sadly we won’t get to see his speed at the combine.

 

20. Darius Marshall 5’ 10” 190 Marshall

He was so good, they named the school after him. Seriously, he reminds many of another Marshall alum, Ahmad Bradshaw, with a similar build, low pad level, and compact explosive running style to go with his 4.4 speed. What’s not to like? Marshall is another guy who has to lay off the weed - about a year ago, he was arrested for misdemeanor marijuana possession.

 

21. Keiland Willliams 6’ 0” 221 LSU

Williams suffered a broken ankle against Ole Miss on November 14 to bring a premature end to his season (he was averaging 5.3 ypc at the time of his injury). He is an explosive back who likes to cut his runs outside and despite his size he needs to improve on running between the tackles. Williams can run a low 4.4 has good vision and change of direction. He has never quite produced up to his talent, and could be a sleeper if he is coachable at the next level.

[Portis26 0]

Best will be the 'best' of this years group, and Gebhart will be the next Frank Wycheck (HB/TE)

[Cara 0]

Best will be the 'best' of this years group, and Gebhart will be the next Frank Wycheck (HB/TE)

 

 

I don't know who will be the best of the best from this group, but I have Best as my 2nd running back this year. Pass blocking can be taught. If you look around the league, there are many running backs that weren't very good at pass blocking coming out the college ranks. LeSean McCoy was a horrible pass blocker this season, but the Eagles knew they were getting a very raw player when they drafted him and will teach him. Another great example is Chris Johnson. He was horrible as a rookie, but much better last season. Still not good, but better than his rookie season.

 

Pass blocking by the running back isn't a priority in the spread offense which is so popular in the college ranks right now. The emphasis is more on getting the running back a favorable matchup (less men in the box).

 

I like reading your rankings MFM. Keep up the good work.

[Boston Three Party 6]

Damn, about time!

 

DWYER TO NEW ENGLAND, sir.

[jgcrawfish 232]

keep up the good work MFM.

[Raider 84 29]

Best will be the 'best' of this years group, and Gebhart will be the next Frank Wycheck (HB/TE)

 

Or Jimmy Kliensasser

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I really like Hardesty. If some team scoops him in the 4th, they may have themselves a steal.

 

Not as high on Gerhart as you. Fullback.

 

Best will get the "Mr. Glass" award for rookie RB's imo.

 

Spiller could be a good one, but I'm thinking change of pace more so than C Johnson and J Charles.

 

Mathews is underrated by most sites imo. I wonder what scouts think.

 

McCluster's interesting because he's electric with the ball, but he's so stinking small I'm afraid he'll get killed.

 

Count me in as one who thinks the USC RB's are living off the USC name.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I really like Hardesty. If some team scoops him in the 4th, they may have themselves a steal.

 

Not as high on Gerhart as you. Fullback. Tweener - he's Michael Bush - looked very good as a RB at the Senior Bowl - MHe's one whose 40 time will be of great interest at the Combine. and it depends on what team drafts him.

 

Best will get the "Mr. Glass" award for rookie RB's imo. I'm not sure whether he will be 'Mr. Glass', but the big differences between he ans Spiller IMO is that Best goes down too easy on contact - Spiller is very capable of running through tackles. While Blocking can be taught, Spiller is a hardnosed type - I don't see the same attributes in Best, and his size works against him as a blocker.

 

Spiller could be a good one, but I'm thinking change of pace more so than C Johnson and J Charles. Sorry, I have a man-crush on Spiller - I obviously think he's the 'real deal'.

 

Mathews is underrated by most sites imo. I wonder what scouts think. Most scout have him in the top 5. I've watched enough of him to be very impressed with his total game. Two of my favorite sources have hin in thier top two and another has him as #3. but others have him lower.

McCluster's interesting because he's electric with the ball, but he's so stinking small I'm afraid he'll get killed. His upside is Sproles IMO

 

Count me in as one who thinks the USC RB's are living off the USC name. Their O-Line talent sure didn't hurt thier RB stats.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Two of my favorite sources have hin in thier top two and another has him as #3. but others have him lower.

 

Is Mayock one of your 2 favorite sources?

[enis_44 0]

Love your thoughts MfM. Can't wait to see where these guys all end up so I can use your leg work on actual talent and combine that with my thoughts on opportunity. Good stuff.

 

Oh, and to nitpick just a little. Wayne State is a Div 2 school not 3. So, if that changes your opinion of Bell at all.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

7. Jahvid Best, Cal 5’ 10” 195 - Many have him higher because he‘s so explosive - he is exceptionally quick and has well above average but not elite speed. Decent hands, but because he is a liability as a blocker he was often not on the field for passing downs . He just does not run with much power and won‘t break or run through too many tackles. Shades of Shady McCoy here.

 

I think he has more power and is a better inside runner than Spiller. I also wouldn't be shocked if his 40 time ends up being razor thin close to Spiller's.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

3. Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech 5’ 11” 235 - He reminds me of Michael Turner. Great size/speed ratio. He has had almost no experience as a receiver and in pass protection, and doesn’t show the vision, elusiveness and balance of Ryan Mathews.

I think his success will be more defined by the system he plays in than the top two - who as I mentioned, I believe will have very good succeess in just about any system. With Dwyer, I'm also concerned that he may have to continually battle a weight issue.

 

My concern with Dwyer is while he has very good long speed, his initial burst looks like he's running in mud. He has great measurables as far as size and speed are concerned, but I have the most doubts about his pro prospects versus the other top guys.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Is Mayock one of your 2 favorite sources?

 

He is #2 RB on Mayocks list, so Mike might be one of my favorites.

[Woosters 1]

FYI.....3 guys I will be watching this year......i think they all make impacts in the NFL this year!

 

2. Ryan Mathews, Fresno State 5’ 11” 220 - I still love this guy. He’s just a natural runner who can fit any system - very good size speed combo with good vision, instincts, balance, and toughness. He hasn‘t had to do much as a receiver out of the backfield so his receiving skill is a question mark.

 

 

12. Dimitri Nance 5’10” 218 Arizona State - I see him as a slightly smaller version of Shonn Greene - A punishing runner with low pad level and good burst and footwork. He will be the power back in a RBBC - I don’t see him on the field on 3rd downs. He did not get a Combine invite.

 

 

15. Ben Tate, Auburn 5’ 11” 218 - He’s a North-South no-nonsense runner who likes to run through, rather than around defenders. He does have above average speed