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#1LionFan

Moreno's outlook?

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Moreno may be getting overlooked in redraft and dynasty. Had 247 carries, 28 rec, 9 tds, almost 1200 total yds as a rookie. With no other RBs brought in and Marshalls 100 receptions out of town...all this should go up!

 

All the buzz is about Greene, Mathews, Rice....but I could easily see Moreno finishing as a top 10 RB in 2010....especially in a PPR league. Are the following projections too high or too low?

 

250 carries, 1125 yds, 4.5 average, 10 tds

40 rec, 280 yds, 7.0 ave, 2 tds

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Moreno may be getting overlooked in redraft and dynasty. Had 247 carries, 28 rec, 9 tds, almost 1200 total yds as a rookie. With no other RBs brought in and Marshalls 100 receptions out of town...all this should go up!

 

All the buzz is about Greene, Mathews, Rice....but I could easily see Moreno finishing as a top 10 RB in 2010....especially in a PPR league. Are the following projections too high or too low?

 

250 carries, 1125 yds, 4.5 average, 10 tds

40 rec, 280 yds, 7.0 ave, 2 tds

Stats don't always tell the whole story, but something jumps out to me about the Denver backfield:

-Moreno: 3.8 ypc on 240 carries.

-Buckhalter: 5.4 ypc on 120 carries.

 

Again - I know some of that reflects the situation, or a long run late in a blow-out for Buckhalter...But the 1.6 ypc difference is STAGGERING. The Broncos have a great OLine (although some SERIOUS injury concerns heading into this season), yet Moreno was given every chance to succeed, and couldn't even post a 4.0 ypc mark.

 

As for the eye test, I'm not going to say Buckhalter was the better back, but Moreno looked like nothing special. A solid RB, who doesn't do anything exceptional, but doesn't have many weaknesses.

 

I just copied this from another thread that I posted it, showing some concerns for Moreno. Also, (I havent been following closely so take this with a grain of salt) - I believe Denver's OLine has some SERIOUS injury issues during this offseason, starting with their stud LT Ryan Clady. This could be a situation worth monitoring...But either way you put it, I just really think this offense will STRUGGLE to score points.

 

I'd rather have Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas...or wait a round and grab Addai or Felix Jones instead of drafting Moreno.

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Stats don't always tell the whole story, but something jumps out to me about the Denver backfield:

-Moreno: 3.8 ypc on 240 carries.

-Buckhalter: 5.4 ypc on 120 carries.

 

Again - I know some of that reflects the situation, or a long run late in a blow-out for Buckhalter...But the 1.6 ypc difference is STAGGERING. The Broncos have a great OLine (although some SERIOUS injury concerns heading into this season), yet Moreno was given every chance to succeed, and couldn't even post a 4.0 ypc mark.

 

As for the eye test, I'm not going to say Buckhalter was the better back, but Moreno looked like nothing special. A solid RB, who doesn't do anything exceptional, but doesn't have many weaknesses.

 

I just copied this from another thread that I posted it, showing some concerns for Moreno. Also, (I havent been following closely so take this with a grain of salt) - I believe Denver's OLine has some SERIOUS injury issues during this offseason, starting with their stud LT Ryan Clady. This could be a situation worth monitoring...But either way you put it, I just really think this offense will STRUGGLE to score points.

 

I'd rather have Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas...or wait a round and grab Addai or Felix Jones instead of drafting Moreno.

 

 

#1LionFan hit it right on the head......

I also see Denver struggling to score....Clady out, Marshall gone, QB experiments

They will not be able to finish/extend drives....no way

RB will still be a 60/40 split.....

 

What I do see is them being behind a lot more this year....and Gaffney or Thomas...whoever breaks out!....Getting lots of garbage yards and some TD's...

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#1LionFan hit it right on the head......

I also see Denver struggling to score....Clady out, Marshall gone, QB experiments

They will not be able to finish/extend drives....no way

RB will still be a 60/40 split.....

 

What I do see is them being behind a lot more this year....and Gaffney or Thomas...whoever breaks out!....Getting lots of garbage yards and some TD's...

It was me making those points, not #1Lions :doublethumbsup:

 

But thanks for agreeing with me!

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Personally, I agree that Moreno is probably a bit under-valued this year.

 

There's no doubt that Buckhalter will (and should) get some carries; however, he's always been injury-prone. Plus, he's getting up there in age for a RB (he'll be 32 this season) and clearly isn't the franchise's future at RB.

 

As long as Moreno stays healthy, I actually think he'll get more carries this season than last -- though I do agree with some of the other posters that Denver's offensive woes could make TDs a bit harder to come by this season. That said, even with a modest gain in ypc, he should be a solid #2 (and great #3) RB on most FF rosters.

 

My prediction:

275 carries / 1100 yards / 5 TDs

30 receptions / 225 yards / 2 TDs

 

:dunno:

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Stats don't always tell the whole story, but something jumps out to me about the Denver backfield:

-Moreno: 3.8 ypc on 240 carries.

-Buckhalter: 5.4 ypc on 120 carries.

 

Again - I know some of that reflects the situation, or a long run late in a blow-out for Buckhalter...But the 1.6 ypc difference is STAGGERING. The Broncos have a great OLine (although some SERIOUS injury concerns heading into this season), yet Moreno was given every chance to succeed, and couldn't even post a 4.0 ypc mark.

 

As for the eye test, I'm not going to say Buckhalter was the better back, but Moreno looked like nothing special. A solid RB, who doesn't do anything exceptional, but doesn't have many weaknesses.

 

I just copied this from another thread that I posted it, showing some concerns for Moreno. Also, (I havent been following closely so take this with a grain of salt) - I believe Denver's OLine has some SERIOUS injury issues during this offseason, starting with their stud LT Ryan Clady. This could be a situation worth monitoring...But either way you put it, I just really think this offense will STRUGGLE to score points.

 

I'd rather have Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas...or wait a round and grab Addai or Felix Jones instead of drafting Moreno.

I agree that Moreno "looked" nothing special last season. And from the looks of it, I agree that you haven't been following closely.

The 1.6 yds/carry difference will be thrown around all offseason. And you are right, stats don't tell the whole story, but that is a big difference.

 

But when you say the Denver offensive line is "great", you lose all credibility. Last year they were solid to very good at times in pass protection (they let up very few sacks, helped by the system and Orton at QB). They were atrocious at run blocking.

 

If you follow most websites for your perspective on where to rank offensive lines, you'll often be mislead. Much of the national sports media is about a year behind in reporting the level of play of a teams offensive line. There is a reason that the team drafted 2 offensive lineman so early this year. And this is before some of the offseason injuries.

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I agree that Moreno "looked" nothing special last season. And from the looks of it, I agree that you haven't been following closely.

The 1.6 yds/carry difference will be thrown around all offseason. And you are right, stats don't tell the whole story, but that is a big difference.

 

But when you say the Denver offensive line is "great", you lose all credibility. Last year they were solid to very good at times in pass protection (they let up very few sacks, helped by the system and Orton at QB). They were atrocious at run blocking.

 

If you follow most websites for your perspective on where to rank offensive lines, you'll often be mislead. Much of the national sports media is about a year behind in reporting the level of play of a teams offensive line. There is a reason that the team drafted 2 offensive lineman so early this year. And this is before some of the offseason injuries.

So what's your measurement for their run blocking? Moreno's 3.8 ypc? Than how do you explain Buckhalter's 5.4??

 

They have, quite possibly, the best young/talented duo at tackles - one of which will be recovering from a major injury this off-season.

 

In addition - they went from Orton/Marshall/Scheffler to a carosel at QB/Eddie Royal/Daniel Graham. Anyone who thinks this team won't STRUGGLE to score points is clearly blinded.

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So what's your measurement for their run blocking? Moreno's 3.8 ypc? Than how do you explain Buckhalter's 5.4??

 

 

thats a softball.

 

carries.

 

its much easier to have a high YPC with a smaller sample size.

 

we can't be certain but im willing to bet Buckhalters YPC doesn't remain at 5.4 if he has the extra 127 carries Moreno had.

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thats a softball.

 

carries.

 

its much easier to have a high YPC with a smaller sample size.

 

we can't be certain but im willing to bet Buckhalters YPC doesn't remain at 5.4 if he has the extra 127 carries Moreno had.

I addressed this in my original post about moreno/buckhalter. Certainly it's easier for a 3rd down/change of pace RB to have a higher ypc, especially if he gets late carries in a blowout...

 

BUT 1.6 YARDS EVERY CARRY? That's staggering. 5.4 - no matter how small (which btw 120 carries isn't that small in today's NFL) is a solid mark. And 3.8 - no matter how small or large the sample size, is simply not acceptable, ESPECIALLY when someone else, ON YOUR OWN TEAM, is the one averaging that 5.4 mark.

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So what's your measurement for their run blocking? Moreno's 3.8 ypc?

No. Did you even sit down and watch a full Bronco's game last year? And if so, how many?

 

They have, quite possibly, the best young/talented duo at tackles - one of which will be recovering from a major injury this off-season.

Talented? D. Hewyard-Bey is talented too. But was he any good last year? No. Let's not decieve ourselves and others reading this topic about how good Harris is. Not to mention will he ever be able to be relied on to stay away from injuries himself?

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Also I think many fantasy football junkies and football fans get too caught up in statistics to form their opinion of how good players are.

 

I can't blame them though, with access to "highlight" plays on ESPN and vast mountains of statistics available via the internet, many people never actually sit down and watch a player play more than 3 or 4 games. Life is busy, and many of us have too many responsibilities to sit down and watch that much football.

 

There is so much that goes into how "successfull" somebody is, and much of that is out of their control. Also much of that person's reputation can be formed from the media and it is not an actual clear representation of who the person is.

 

As far as statistis go that can be deceptive.... here's a list of some of the greatest NFL running backs to ever play the game with their yards per carry compared to their backup's stats for that given year.

 

Walter Payton

1975 outrushed by 1.0 yds/carry by backup Roland Harper

1981 outrushed by 1.5 yds/carry by backup Vince Evans

 

Jim Brown

1959 outrushed by 1.1 yds/carry by backup Bobby Mitchell

1962 outrushed by 1.5 yds/carry by backup Frank Ryan

 

LaDanian Tomlinson

2004 outrushed by 2.1 yds/carry by backup Jesse Chatman

 

Knowshon Moreno?

2009 outrushed by 1.6 yds/carry by backup Correll Buckhalter

 

 

Take it for what it's worth. Go ahead and find holes in the discussion I presented. It won't be hard. You can use statistics to make any point.

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I've seen Moreno play extensively, and his outlook is still cloudy for 2010. His YPC was not good, and with the complete lack of a passing game in Denver, defenses will be stacking the box almost every down.

 

He's talented enough to get 1000 yards, but TDs are a total crap shoot. I think he'll finish around 15th in RBs but he's a great keeper league pick.

 

 

 

Also I think many fantasy football junkies and football fans get too caught up in statistics to form their opinion of how good players are.

 

I can't blame them though, with access to "highlight" plays on ESPN and vast mountains of statistics available via the internet, many people never actually sit down and watch a player play more than 3 or 4 games. Life is busy, and many of us have too many responsibilities to sit down and watch that much football.

 

There is so much that goes into how "successfull" somebody is, and much of that is out of their control. Also much of that person's reputation can be formed from the media and it is not an actual clear representation of who the person is.

 

As far as statistis go that can be deceptive.... here's a list of some of the greatest NFL running backs to ever play the game with their yards per carry compared to their backup's stats for that given year.

 

Walter Payton

1975 outrushed by 1.0 yds/carry by backup Roland Harper

1981 outrushed by 1.5 yds/carry by backup Vince Evans

 

Jim Brown

1959 outrushed by 1.1 yds/carry by backup Bobby Mitchell

1962 outrushed by 1.5 yds/carry by backup Frank Ryan

 

LaDanian Tomlinson

2004 outrushed by 2.1 yds/carry by backup Jesse Chatman

 

Knowshon Moreno?

2009 outrushed by 1.6 yds/carry by backup Correll Buckhalter

 

 

Take it for what it's worth. Go ahead and find holes in the discussion I presented. It won't be hard. You can use statistics to make any point.

 

 

 

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u should see his schedule

 

 

i absolutely LOVE Moreno this year...no homo

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No. Did you even sit down and watch a full Bronco's game last year? And if so, how many?

 

 

Talented? D. Hewyard-Bey is talented too. But was he any good last year? No. Let's not decieve ourselves and others reading this topic about how good Harris is. Not to mention will he ever be able to be relied on to stay away from injuries himself?

So what other combination of young tackles would you rather besides Ryan Clady and Harris? This offensive line was plenty good last season, and Moreno didn't take advantage of it.

 

And part of my other point was Clady is recovering from a major injury and Harris is injury prone - so this line will most likely be noticeably worse. AKA trouble for Moreno's production.

 

Also I think many fantasy football junkies and football fans get too caught up in statistics to form their opinion of how good players are.

 

I can't blame them though, with access to "highlight" plays on ESPN and vast mountains of statistics available via the internet, many people never actually sit down and watch a player play more than 3 or 4 games. Life is busy, and many of us have too many responsibilities to sit down and watch that much football.

 

There is so much that goes into how "successfull" somebody is, and much of that is out of their control. Also much of that person's reputation can be formed from the media and it is not an actual clear representation of who the person is.

 

As far as statistis go that can be deceptive.... here's a list of some of the greatest NFL running backs to ever play the game with their yards per carry compared to their backup's stats for that given year.

 

Walter Payton

1975 outrushed by 1.0 yds/carry by backup Roland Harper

1981 outrushed by 1.5 yds/carry by backup Vince Evans

 

Jim Brown

1959 outrushed by 1.1 yds/carry by backup Bobby Mitchell

1962 outrushed by 1.5 yds/carry by backup Frank Ryan

 

LaDanian Tomlinson

2004 outrushed by 2.1 yds/carry by backup Jesse Chatman

 

Knowshon Moreno?

2009 outrushed by 1.6 yds/carry by backup Correll Buckhalter

 

 

Take it for what it's worth. Go ahead and find holes in the discussion I presented. It won't be hard. You can use statistics to make any point.

 

Did Jesse Chatman have 120 carries like Buckhalter did? Oh thats right, he had 1/2 of that...As I mentioned, it's quite common for a back-up/change of pace RB to have a high ypc on 50-75 carries. But Buckhalter was not a change-of-pace back, he was in a 65/35 split, and received a decent workload over 14 games...and outproduced Moreno on a carry-for-carry basis.

 

I'd like to know your outlook for the Broncos this year, because this is the situation I see in Denver for Moreno:

-65/35 split, who produced by volume last season.

-3.8 ypc is not impressive - and that was with a passing game.

-Orton SHOULD be the QB, but what's the situation now with Quinn & Tebow?

-Bye Bye Brandon Marshall

-Offensive line injury concerns listed above

-Anyway you put it, this offense is going to struggle to move the ball and put up points. Look at the effect that has on someone like Steven Jackson (who is twice as talented as Moreno, and probably had nearly twice as many touches).

 

Even if Moreno gets 250 carries, he's not likely to produce more than 1,000 yards and 6-8 TD's. I just see a TON of question marks, and not much upside. I'm not drafting that in the early 3rd round.

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Without being too simplistic here, because the previous replies site so many stats.

What about the Broncos even flirting with Brian Westbrook this offseason?

 

That along with Buckhalters stats has to be a concern for his upiside?

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Week Opponent Avg Pts

Allowed

to RB

1 @JAX 17.7

2 SEA 22.0

3 IND 20.4

4 @TEN 21.2

5 @BAL 14.0

6 NYJ 16.0

7 OAK 25.8

8 @SF 18.1

9 Bye

10 KC 25.3

11 @SD 20.2

12 STL 25.1

13 @KC 25.3

14 @ARI 19.0

15 @OAK 25.8

16 HOU 19.2

17 SD 20.2

 

 

 

friggin insane......he was close to 1,000 last year even with people breathin down his neck

 

i say he improves his numbers and then some, rec's should go up too

 

 

 

in most leagues....MOST....you can get him as your #2 which is SOLID.....so shoot there...but me personally i would be happy with him as my #1 if it came down to it,,,,and just team him up with ppl with upside (michael bush, forte etc...)

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friggin insane......he was close to 1,000 last year even with people breathin down his neck

 

i say he improves his numbers and then some, rec's should go up too

 

in most leagues....MOST....you can get him as your #2 which is SOLID.....so shoot there...but me personally i would be happy with him as my #1 if it came down to it,,,,and just team him up with ppl with upside (michael bush, forte etc...)

Nowadays 1,000 yards is nothing for a RB. The only reason he even sniffed that mark was because of sheer volume - the dude averaged 3.8 yards per carry.

 

Breathing down his neck?? You mean he didn't run away with the starting job over the career-backup/oft-injured Correll Buckhalter (who outrushed him by 1.8 yards PER CARRY).

 

I'm not sure why you'd expect him to IMPROVE his numbers now?? The QB position (while not great last year), is now a carousel, and they lost their star WR and starting TE...This offense is going to STRUGGLE.

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Not sure why a few people are so hung up on a rookie being out YPC'd by a back up. That is not unheard of and doesn't spell disaster for Moreno. Is it something to look at? Sure, but it's not THAT big of a deal.

 

I think Moreno is pegged about where he should. A second or third teir RB picked in the late third and fourth rounds of redrafts. If you watched him play any you could see he has talent. It's just a matter of putting it together and how potent the Denver offense will be. Which is a question mark.

 

1300 total yards and 8 or 9 TD's sounds about right.

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Not sure why a few people are so hung up on a rookie being out YPC'd by a back up. That is not unheard of and doesn't spell disaster for Moreno. Is it something to look at? Sure, but it's not THAT big of a deal.

 

I think Moreno is pegged about where he should. A second or third teir RB picked in the late third and fourth rounds of redrafts. If you watched him play any you could see he has talent. It's just a matter of putting it together and how potent the Denver offense will be. Which is a question mark.

 

1300 total yards and 8 or 9 TD's sounds about right.

I know I've been stressing the ypc difference, but I agree it is only something to look at. Most of the time - you see a Darren Sproles average 5.5 ypc on 60 carries for a season, while LT has 4.5 ypc on 300 carries (just making these #'s up)...But that's not the case in Denver. Buckhalter had 120 carries, so it wasn't like those numbers were skewed, and I just think that the NEARLY 2 YARD DIFFERENCE is a much bigger gap than what is normal...Especially between a top15 pick, and a career-backup.

 

My point being, I've never been wow-ed by Moreno. Like I've said, he's good at a lot of things, but not great at any. He reminds me a lot of Forte in that sense, although I feel like Forte's low ypc were more a product of the OLine.

 

Also, I'm just going to have a hard time starting Moreno with confidence if this team can't put up 18+ ppg on offense...Led by: Orton (?), Quinn (?), Tebow ( :huh: ) - throwing to: Demaryious Thomas (?), Brandon Stokely (:lol:)...well, you get my point.

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Also, I'm just going to have a hard time starting Moreno with confidence if this team can't put up 18+ ppg on offense...Led by: Orton (?), Quinn (?), Tebow ( :huh: ) - throwing to: Demaryious Thomas (?), Brandon Stokely (:lol:)...well, you get my point.

Well sure. But I think those factors are already counted. It's why Moreno has an ADP of 3.11 and not 2.04. If Denvers Offense was better (i.e. San Diego) then we would see Moreno going higher. But it's not, so he is stationed about where he should be IMO.

 

I wouldn't draft him in the first two and half rounds either. However if I need a RB2 and it's late third or the fourth round I have no problem drafting Knowshon. All the RB's at and after those spots have question marks.

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Well sure. But I think those factors are already counted. It's why Moreno has an ADP of 3.11 and not 2.04. If Denvers Offense was better (i.e. San Diego) then we would see Moreno going higher. But it's not, so he is stationed about where he should be IMO.

 

I wouldn't draft him in the first two and half rounds either. However if I need a RB2 and it's late third or the fourth round I have no problem drafting Knowshon. All the RB's at and after those spots have question marks.

I see what you're saying...although I still wouldn't touch him at 2.04 if he were on the Chargers.

 

I guess I'm just much more excited about Ryan Grant, Jamaal Charles, and Pierre Thomas - the 3 RB's going right before Moreno (and I'm high on Beanie Wells - being drafted JUST AFTER Moreno). If those 3 were gone, I'd be more than happy to wait a full round or two and grab Joseph Addai, Matt Forte, or Felix Jones.

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I addressed this in my original post about moreno/buckhalter. Certainly it's easier for a 3rd down/change of pace RB to have a higher ypc, especially if he gets late carries in a blowout...

 

BUT 1.6 YARDS EVERY CARRY? That's staggering. 5.4 - no matter how small (which btw 120 carries isn't that small in today's NFL) is a solid mark. And 3.8 - no matter how small or large the sample size, is simply not acceptable, ESPECIALLY when someone else, ON YOUR OWN TEAM, is the one averaging that 5.4 mark.

 

I think you also have to factor in Moreno being a rookie and starting off slower as well as Buckhalter having shown skill in the past when healthy. I don't think 1.6 is really that staggering.

 

What do you think Buckhalter drops to if he had Morenos share of the carries (an extra 127)? Does he maintain a 5.0? Only 2 guys with over 250 total carries achieved that and only 5 guys with more than 150 carries did it. Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams and Jamal Charles (in order of attampts).

 

also, you have mentioned Ryan Harris but how do you factor in that Harris played only 8 games last year, 7 of which were in the first half of the season when Buckhalter was receiving a larger % of his seasons carries? As Moreno's workload began to increase, the team was without Harris. Just some food for thought.

 

and for what its worth im not extremely high on Knowshon either, at least compared to similar ADP runningbacks.

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I guess I'm just much more excited about Ryan Grant, Jamaal Charles, and Pierre Thomas

 

I think most people are. The guy has a lot of negatives going against him. Which is why he is not drafted as high as these guys and it will be no surprise if his ADP drops more before the season.

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kmbryant09, what was the difference again between moreno and the career backup? 1.8? nearly 2? or maybe 2.6 now?

 

Denver's run blocking was bad last year.

Moreno didn't "wow" everyone last year.

 

Denver is not going to be the greatest show on turf this year.

It would be of no surprise if Moreno did not put up good numbers this year.

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I know I've been stressing the ypc difference, but I agree it is only something to look at. Most of the time - you see a Darren Sproles average 5.5 ypc on 60 carries for a season, while LT has 4.5 ypc on 300 carries (just making these #'s up)...But that's not the case in Denver. Buckhalter had 120 carries, so it wasn't like those numbers were skewed, and I just think that the NEARLY 2 YARD DIFFERENCE is a much bigger gap than what is normal...Especially between a top15 pick, and a career-backup.

 

My point being, I've never been wow-ed by Moreno. Like I've said, he's good at a lot of things, but not great at any. He reminds me a lot of Forte in that sense, although I feel like Forte's low ypc were more a product of the OLine.

 

Also, I'm just going to have a hard time starting Moreno with confidence if this team can't put up 18+ ppg on offense...Led by: Orton (?), Quinn (?), Tebow ( :huh: ) - throwing to: Demaryious Thomas (?), Brandon Stokely (:lol:)...well, you get my point.

 

 

i see your point....but on the other side of that coin is someone like Steven Jackson....he is also on a horrible team with horrible surroundings....and he does quite well

 

 

only downfall with him, since he carries that whole team on his back, he hurt his back

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He needs to concentrate on being the best option in the bronco backfield. Last year CBuck schooled him, and was the best back on the teamby a mile.

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He needs to concentrate on being the best option in the bronco backfield. Last year CBuck schooled him, and was the best back on the teamby a mile.

 

 

 

he was also a rookie then...he got his bumps and bruises and im sure he learned something

 

 

if not....sophmore slump and i will be screwed....but i can live with that because i have in the past and still do pretty good :-)

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kmbryant09, what was the difference again between moreno and the career backup? 1.8? nearly 2? or maybe 2.6 now?

 

Denver's run blocking was bad last year.

Moreno didn't "wow" everyone last year.

 

Denver is not going to be the greatest show on turf this year.

It would be of no surprise if Moreno did not put up good numbers this year.

Sorry for the confusion on the ypc difference - all these numbers have my head a little dizzy. But I never said 2.6 (I believe).

 

It's a 1.6 ypc difference - fairly safe to say "nearly 2".

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