MFM's interactive fantasy football blog - 2010 version

[madd futher mucker 36]

I thought long and hard about whether to do the blog again this year. I'm not doing it just to feed my ego, as it really takes a lot of effort and with my boy being ill, I wasn’t sure I‘d be up to it. But many of you really liked last year‘s blog and gave me some nice feedback. I hope I gave you some ideas regarding in-season team management, and I believe I may have dispelled the idea that many have had that fantasy football is mostly all luck. Last year I had 5 teams, made the play-offs in four and won two championships. Obviously I hope to do as well or better this year.

So join me for my fantasy express, version 2010. Along the way. I believe I will dispense some tips that may improve your fantasy football results as well.

 

I like to play in many different formats, so you will probably find a team that closely matches your league rules.

I’ll also post updates on how I’m doing with my FBG/FFPC high stakes league. This blog will be interactive in the sense that I want YOU to feel free to comment, criticize, agree or disagree, or share your similar "bad beats" or lucky win stories. Hopefully I will again have the time and energy to keep this up, and you'll enjoy reading it!

 

Week one presents either clear-cut WDIS decisions or coin-flip type decisions, so there is not much to discuss regarding my tentative line-up choices, which are in bold. Here are my teams:

 

I won’t discuss my auction team (let’s call it my “A” team) much this year, because live auction drafts are my favorite format and I expect to win again this year. Two owners didn’t show up for the live auction, so by vote it became a 10 team PPR league (TE can be flex). Losing two teams must have thrown the other owners off - they bid too much too early relative to the available talent, and by being patient, I absolutely crushed this draft. I probably won‘t be mentioning this team again in this blog - it would only be worth mentioning if I DON’T win this league.

Here’s the team (but I’m still trying to work a 2 for 1 trade to be able to pick up a kicker):

Rivers, Eli, Finley, T Gonzalez, MIA

Grant, Forte, Best, Bradshaw, Moreno, Foster, R Bush

Fitz, Austin, Smith(ny), Nicks, Knox

 

My Semi-dynasty team: This is a semi-dynasty 12 team 22 player PPR league, and is the only team that didn’t make the play-offs last year. In fact, I came in LAST, and yes, I have several excuses as to why not. This is my second year with this team and I think I considerably improved my team in the off-season and am ready to compete this year. Here’s my team:

P Manning, Cassel, Witten, Z Miller, Gould, Phil, Miami

Bradshaw, Foster, Turner, Snelling, C Williams, B Scott

Owens, Gaffney, Floyd, Cotchery, M Thomas, Hartline, Amendola, Cooper, Decker

 

My Deep keeper league team: I bought into an existing 10 team 20 player NON-PPR league that is a keep 10 deep keeper league - we do not use a defense in this league. The league is VERY trade active, which is fun for me when I have time. The team I started with 5 months ago is entirely different from the team I have now about two dozen trades later.

Schaub, Eli Manning, Finley, Celek, Rackers

P Thomas, Best, M Bush, R Williams, Ch Taylor, B Scott

Owens, Floyd, Gaffney, Wallace, Jacoby Jones, Knox, M Thomas, Murphy, S Rice

 

MY Family and Friends keep 7 keeper: It is a 12 team 16 player PPR league. I disappointed myself last year by barely making the play-offs. After the supplemental draft my team is:

Big Ben, Freeman, Campbell, Finley, Rackers, CIN,

MJD, Foster, M Bush, D Brown, McCluster (can be WR or RB)

Bowe, MSW, Gaffney, M Thomas, Cribbs

 

My redraft league: This is your standard 12 team 17 player PPR redraft league with a double flex for RB/WR or TE.

Eli, Finley, Gates, Hernandez, NYG, MIA, Buehler

Gore, Foster, Sproles, McCluster (again he can be a RB or a WR)

Fitz, Floyd, Gaffney, Jacoby Jones, Hester, Aromashadu

 

And lastly,my high stakes FBG/FantasyFootballPlayersChapionship team. The league is a 12 team 20 player no-trade PPR league with 1 ½ PPR for TEs, a double flex including WRs, RBs, or TEs, and power scoring for return TDs. After looking at my team and league very closely, I think I have a real chance to make waves here! The object was to draft a very high up-side team, and I think I accomplished that:

Romo, Young, Dal Clark, Z Miller, CIN, CHI, Tynes

Gore, Best, Hightower, Ch Taylor, A Brown (Den), K Williams (Wash)

Harvin, Floyd, M Williams, McCluster, Edelman, Cribbs, S Rice

 

I’d like to give you an example of how your scoring system, flex considerations and roster size affect should drastically affect your draft strategy - by walking you through the decision-making processes of my FFPC draft. Remember that TE’s get 1.5 PPR points which put their value on a par with RBs and TEs. I had already pretty much figured out the flow of the draft ahead of time and in which rounds certain players were likely to get picked, based on the fact that there would be no weak drafters in this league. To have a chance in these large national high stakes contests you must take calculated risks and draft for upside!

 

My draft went like this:

1.05 - Gore, 2.08 - Dal Clark, 3 - Best , 4 - Z Miller, 5 - Romo, 6 - Harvin, 7 - Floyd, 8 - Hightower, 9 M Williams (TB), 10 - Ch Taylor, 11- McCluster, 12 - Edelman, 13 - V Young, 14 - S Rice, 15 - Cin D, 16 - A Brown (just traded to DEN), 17 - Chi D, 18- Tynes, 19 - Cribbs, 20 K Williams (WAS RB).

 

Gore at 1.05 was a no-brainer after the other top 4 Rbs were gone. Finley went off the board at 1.12 and Gates followed at 2.01. When Witten went at 2.05, Clark was a no-brainer for me at 2.08 (given the 1.5 PPR bonus for TEs, his FP projections were higher than all but the top 5 RBs and Wrs). Best was an easy choice and the highest rated player on my board at 3.05.

 

4.08 was my first major decision. My last top tier TE, Zach Miller was still available, as were Romo, Schaub, DeSean Jackson, both Steve Smiths, and Boldin. With the bonus points, I had Z Miller projected slightly higher than these second tier WRs. But I had also made up my mind that I really wanted to get a Schaub or Romo if available. Since there were two tier one QBs left, but only one top tier TE left, I pulled the trigger on Miller and hoped either Schaub or Romo would fall to me in round 5. That is exactly what happened - Schaub went before my pick and I scooped up Romo right after.

 

I was very worried about WRs now. I had Harvin as my round 6 target, and sure enough he was there. IMO Harvin will have a BIG season this year, and his returner power points put him in the same range as Jennings, Colston, Marshall and the other tier two WRs. With him in my shopping basket, I could breathe easier.

Round 7 brought a value pick, Malcolm Floyd.

 

Rounds 8 and 10 gave me my RB value picks for PPR scoring, Hightower and Chester Taylor. With all of my ‘depth” picks pretty much in place, round 9 was my first ‘upside’ pick, TB’s Mike Williams, who I knew would be going in round 8 or 9 based on previous recent FFPC drafts that I had been privy to. My next upside picks were McCluster in round 11 and Edelman in 12. I took a 2nd QB, Vince young in round 13 to back up Romo.

 

Round 14 saw me take Sidney Rice. I’m “in it to win it” and if Rice makes it back by week 8 or so, he will turbocharge my WR corps. Nothing left after that but to select tow somewhat complimentary defenses, my kicker and get two high upside Rbs: Andre Brown - who I saw was traded to DEN while my draft was in process, and Keiland Williams, who has a reasonable chance to play A LOT in Washington.

 

I liked my draft and my team - I do not have any positions of significant weakness, and enough overall strength and upside to keep me in the ‘hunt’. Yes I DO expect that, barring too many injuries, I can win the league and move on to qualify for the big prize money.

 

For those who are playing in the FBG/FFPC, feel free to post your teams and comment on your draft strategy. Those of you that are not in a high-stakes league, you can play ‘vicariously’ through my team. As always, I love it when people throw out comments or strategy questions. Hope to hear from you and have a great season!

[madd futher mucker 36]

You can’t win ‘em all, but starting out with 5 wins and only one loss is pretty close to it . I’ve noticed that week 1 on this bored is the time for gross over-reaction based on just reading some of the posts here:

“trade J Charles this week…his stock will never be higher” (I don’t agree with this at all)

“how bad is Mark Sanchez? (You drafted him, not me)

“Pierre Garcon…time to panic? (You were expecting too much - I actually thought he did ok)

“Already Not Happy W/ little ray rice (You can give him to me then)

And the post that about summed it up “the sky, it’s falling!….Welcome to overreaction Monday”

 

But no over-reaction here - I’ve got bigger fish to fry. We brought my son home from the hospital today after two weeks, and I’m happy to say that life around here will be much better now. And I've got waiver bids to think about tonite.

 

for my fantasy football teams, things went about as planned - almost. But they didn’t start out too well as I only got about 2 points from Percy Harvin. I should have known better. Harvin has never played the “x” before, and had almost no practice with Favre prior to the game. It showed as he mis-read the defense and was on the wrong page just about the whole game, I'd have done better with Mike Williams or even McCluster (because of his return TD).

 

Unfortunately this was in my FBG/FPPC league (First prize is $100,000). But I did win my heads-up match, and I didn’t fall too far behind (yet) in the over-all points, finishing 4th in my league with 138.6 for 10 starters. My buddy in another league (who I assisted in his draft using my projections and my target list) also won and finished with just under 150. I’d guess the very top teams put up over 200 fantasy points, so I’ve got some serious catching up to do. I’d be interested to find out how Mike Krueger and Mike MacGregor did and what their team looks like. And anyone else from our forums who is playing in this contest.)

 

The only other low point was my loss in my deep keeper league - I expected to win this week that one - but I ran into a team who played both Cutler and Forte while I rolled with Schaub, instead of Eli. No panic here - these things balance themselves out over the course of the season.

 

As expected, I steamrolled in my auction league (183.5 fantasy pts for 9 players), and won handily in the other formats as well.

 

Tonight’s project is to figure out my waiver priorities and blind bids. Four of my six leagues have blind bid systems, the 5th has a ‘worst first’, and my Friends and Family league has our traditional 1st come 1st served scramble for just the 1st two weeks of the season. (I snagged Brandon Jackson before the next play started).

Blind bid waivers is fast becoming the norm for competitive leagues.

 

So - how much of a $100 budget is Brandon Jackson gonna go for? Stay tuned and I’ll tell ya tomorrow - but in 3 of my 6 leagues he was rostered to start the season.

 

I gotta go now and give my wife and son a big 'three-way' bed-time hug. I'd love your comments or questions.

[madd futher mucker 36]

We got the answer on how much Brandon Jackson would go for in blind auction waivers, and that was “all-in” for most successful bidders. I also believe that they made a big mistake. Not that I don’t like Jackson. In fact, he’ll have every opportunity to succeed, and I believe he will be a fine RB2 on a fantasy team. I just believe that owners who shot their whole wad on him were short-sighted - it is a very long season when you can’t even bid dollar one for a top defense. He was available on blind waivers in two of my leagues and I managed to get him for $26 in my 10 owner Auction league (I dropped Ryan Grant).

 

I also believe that anyone betting on the come by picking up Marshawn Lynch is going to be seriously disappointed, as that trade rumor is not going to happen. There is a better bet though. Since most leagues have re-opened their free agent lists for pick-ups, if Vincent Jackson was dropped in your league, NOW is the time to pick him up. I’ll bet 10-1 that a trade goes down within the week. He’s only available in that same auction league of mine, and I am so ‘studly’ there already that I really don’t know who I’d drop to get him.

 

There was not much else on the wire that I was interested in this week - J Gresham (I loved his targets in the preseason and 10 targets in week 1); and in my high-stakes league, Shipley and Arizona’s Steven Williams (Doucet is out for 4-6 weeks, and Williams’ play has been an absolute surprise).

 

My auction league doesn't merit discussion, other than it is my best chance ever to go 16-0, so on to the other teams.

 

I made a right ’read' last weekend in Team 1, my semi-dynasty 12 team 22 player PPR league by benching Turner last week, but this week he’s a must play. But no roster changes were made in that league, and I‘m otherwise playing pretty much the same line-up:

P Manning, Cassel, Witten, Z Miller, Gould, Phil, Miami

Bradshaw, Foster, Turner, Snelling, C Williams, B Scott

Owens, Gaffney, Floyd, Cotchery, M Thomas, Hartline, Amendola, Cooper, Decker

 

Team 2 was my only loser last week, but I made only one change. In this 10 team 20 player NON-PPR keep-10 deep keeper league, I picked up Naanee off waivers and dropped B Scott. I also decided to shake up my starting line-up a bit:

Schaub, Eli Manning, Finley, Celek, Rackers

P Thomas, Best, M Bush, R Williams, Ch Taylor,

Owens, Floyd, Gaffney, Wallace, Jacoby Jones, Knox, M Thomas, Murphy, Naanee, S Rice

 

For Team 3, I was active both in trades and on the waiver wire for my Family and Friends team which I‘m starting to like now (12 team 16 player PPR keep 7 keeper), picking up Brandon Jackson, Hillis, Gresham, M Williams (Sea), and the MIA D. My likely starters are again in bold, but I haven‘t completely decided on my WRs yet: Big Ben, Campbell, Finley, Gresham, Rackers, MIA,

MJD, Foster, Br Jackson, M Bush,

Bowe, MSW, Gaffney, Fat M Williams, M Thomas, McCluster

 

In Team 4, my redraft league (12 team 17 player PPR with a double flex for RB/WR or TE) of

Eli, Finley, Gates, Gresham (dropped Hernandez), NYG, NE, Buehler

Gore, Foster, Sproles,

Fitz, Floyd, Gaffney, Jacoby Jones, Hester, Aromashadu, McCluster

I think I’ll roll with the bolded players as my starters this week.

 

Lastly, Team 5 is my high stakes FBG/ Fantasy Football Players Chapionship team. The league is a 12 team 20 player no-trade PPR league with 1 ½ PPR for TEs, a double flex for WRs, RBs, or TEs, and power scoring for return TDs. I won’t know til Saturday on my blind waiver bids, and I expect my line-up to be (bold):

Romo, Young, Dal Clark, Z Miller, CIN, CHI, Tynes

Gore, Best, Hightower, Ch Taylor, A Brown (Den), K Williams (Wash)

Harvin, Floyd, M Williams, McCluster, Edelman, Cribbs, S Rice

(Harvin goes to the bench this week - I made the absolute wrong 'read' on him.)

 

I'll close with a little philosophy: Like a wise ol’ hunter once said “Sometimes you eat the bear, sometimes the bear eats you.“. Fantasy football, like poker, requires an even temperament. You just can’t get too excited about what happens in week one - one week does not make a trend, and even two weeks in a row often doesn’t mean that much. So my 5 wins in week one is great, but it doesn't really mean very much over the course of a fantasy season. I just got to keep it goin'.

 

Well that’s it for this week. Nothing much to do but possible last minute line-up changes and then wait for the results. Good luck to all of your teams as well and please give me some feedback on my waiver wire thoughts or anything else here.

[stonewall 647]

Since most leagues have re-opened their free agent lists for pick-ups, if Vincent Jackson was dropped in your league, NOW is the time to pick him up. I’ll bet 10-1 that a trade goes down within the week.

 

 

I am with you here Madd. I was able to snatch him up as a free agent in 2 leagues, only costing me LRob.......who I still really like, but has lost appeal with the signing of Clayton and lingering ankle problems. Where are you expecting (hoping) VJ lands?

[madd futher mucker 36]

I am with you here Madd. I was able to snatch him up as a free agent in 2 leagues, only costing me LRob.......who I still really like, but has lost appeal with the signing of Clayton and lingering ankle problems. Where are you expecting (hoping) VJ lands?

 

My best guesses would be either Minnesota or Washington.

[nobody 2,630]

I'd take the Vincent Jackson trade bet for 10-1 odds if anyone is interested.

[madd futher mucker 36]

White Wonder - “im sorry but anyone who thinks its more than 50% skill is simply full of themselves.”

 

MFM - “That is an insult and I resemble that remark.”

 

 

Before I get to the week-end’s results of my teams, let me throw out a couple of things here.

 

The V Jax deal officially died a few hours ago. (And I’m sure glad I didn’t follow through with nobody on the 10-1 bet that he’d be traded)

 

But I WAS interested in the brouhaha about the trade of S Jax for V Jax. I still believe that the commish had to let the trade go through, but I‘ll bet the guy who made the stupid trade getting rid of S Jax REALLY feels like sh1t right now. He obviously has no clue about player valuation or assessing risk vs. reward.

 

By contrast, my speculation in picking up V Jax off the waiver wire in one league only cost me a kicker. I did put out a couple of extremely fair (under the circumstances) trade offers in a few of my leagues - the most expensive gamble being my offer of M Bush for V Jax, but I got no bites and withdrew all offers at 2 pm today. The guys I sent those offers to also gambled on the trade happening and they lost. But no big deal to me.

 

Another interesting study in player valuation and risk/reward assessment was the waiver blind bidding for Brandon Jackson . A guy in one of my leagues who is normally a very solid fantasy player went all-in, blowing his whole annual waiver allowance, just as others in many other leagues did. By paying too much, the guy has focked himself for the rest of the year from making any future meaningful pick-ups.

 

Jackson was not even as good as I anticipated he’d be on Sunday and now he will be in a RBBC with John Kuhn and possibly Dimitri Nance and James Starks when he returns. So much for McCarthy’s “ He’s a "He's a complete football player. If we had to play all three downs with him, I wouldn't even blink." I did pick up Br Jax in one league, but I won him for a more reasonable bid of $26 against my $100 waiver budget.

 

Now I WILL throw out a couple of ‘buy-lows’ for you to consider: Mike Wallace and Santonio Holmes. Given the unsettled QB situation in Pittsburgh, the passing offense in general and Wallace in particular have gotten off to a very poor start. Owners are starting to give up on him so he can be had for next to nothing. When Ben settles back in, Wallace should again have decent WR3 value. Similarly, some owners who are not very deep at WR and have Holmes on their bench are starting to think that ANY production is better than NO production, and I think now is the time to swoop in and get him for a very cheap trade.

 

Another observation: It seems that every year, right after week one especially, but continuing up to about week 4, owners strongly over-react to poor production from someone on their roster. An astute owner (who has the ability to differentiate pyrite from real gold) can and should take full advantage. By the way, immediately after the ‘over-reaction phase’ generally comes the “how much of fantasy football is luck” phase. (it started early this year). I’m sure most have read my remarks as well as others on the subject in that post about luck.

 

One of the reasons I decided to continue this blog in 2010 is because I firmly believe that while luck cannot be eliminated, the ‘luck factor’ is different for each owner based on their skill level. I believe owners can greatly minimize the bad-luck aspect by making better, more thoughtful and informed decisions than their competitors - over the sum of thousands of decisions we must make every fantasy year. Last year I made the play-offs (top 4 in a 12 team league) four out of 5 times and won two championships. I EXPECT to do about the same this year. How? I have a ‘ritual’ of study for very day of the fantasy season.

 

It starts with diligent offseason preparation in the off-season through the pre-season, through the draft process and through in-season roster management. It is ALL about improving my player valuation skills and more accurately assessing risk vs. reward in player selection and WDIS decisions.

 

I’ll flat out state that you cannot simply take a cheat-sheet from here or any other site and have a great draft - unless you happen to be incredibly lucky. I do numerical projections and they help me a lot, but you don’t have to do them to be successful. However you DO HAVE TO develop the most plausible 'story-line' about each player and his situation which allows you to reasonably project how he is likely to perform. Numerical projections are merely a way to quantify and compare the storylines of different players. It is most important that you understand and believe in the underlying story lines if you use someone else's projections.

 

And you DO HAVE TO be flexible and open enough in your thinking to recognize when real events cause the situation to veer from that story-line you created. You have to examine every shred of evidence and determine whether it is valid or not as it affects that storyline. One example - I had KC projected to have a much higher powered offense than they have shown so far - I was high on Charles, high on Bowe, and particularly high on McCluster. Are the first two games an anomaly or are they going to be the norm. I don’t have quite enough evidence to say which it is yet, but trust me, I’m collecting all of it, and will moderate my expectations in the meantime.

 

Enough of that - on to my results of the week. Last week I was 5 and 1. This week I ’Gored’ some and was ‘Gored’ in a couple as well, finishing 4 and 2. I’m 2 - 0 in 4 leagues; and 1 - 1 and 0 for 2 in the other two. The two losses this week were relatively close and yes, I lost to the Frank Gore owner. The losses were in my deep keeper and in my dynasty league. In the two leagues where I had Gore for my side, I won big time. I wasn’t real happy with two losses for the week but it sure beats 2 and 4.

 

And I’m totally psyched about my FBG/FFPC team (I played Gore AND Best). I put up almost 200 fantasy points which was the top score over 1608 players nationwide. It also moved me into the top 40 in the overall standings. Can I keep up a 170 average weekly score in order to hang with the best? I’m sure gonna try.

 

In the meantime, I’ve got waiver wire claims and roster moves to figure out for this week.

 

And as always I look forward to, and appreciate your feedback.

[stonewall 647]

I know that you have beem high on Mike Thomas for awhile now, and he has been ok through two weeks. He is available in a couple of my 12 team non-ppr leagues. Are you still feelin' him and, if so, what is your outlook for the rest of his year.

 

Enjoy the read each week.

[WhiteWonder 2,710]

White Wonder - im sorry but anyone who thinks its more than 50% skill is simply full of themselves.

 

MFM - That is an insult and I resemble that remark.

 

 

nice! I made your blog!

 

I actually quite enjoyed your 2009 blog.

 

But I still have a strong stance on the Skill vs. Luck arguement and I can't bring myself to put the % at anything more then 50/50. And keep in mind I have been quite successful over my years playing FF.

 

There are quite a bit of "skillful" measures you can take to influence your success in FF. I beat those things to death in the other thread so I won't expand on them again. However, there are just too many variables that are outside your control to think that FF is 80%+ skill related.

 

I'll go back to poker as an example. At least in poker, aside from what cards fall, you have a ton of influence on the outcome of hands and the overall game or tournament based on your actions, how you play the cards you have and being able to manipulate your opponents. Others need to react to everything you do just as you will react to others.

 

With Fantasy Football, there are just too many actions going on that you simply can't control. If a rain storm rolls through the city where your star QB is playing, you simply can't do anything about it. If your bluff gets called in poker, there is always the chance you could have been a little more skillful in how you played the hand.

 

If you didn't predict the Colts would get up on the Giants by a huge margin and thus Bradshaw would be less of a factor in the game, does that make you less "skilled"?

 

Perhaps a better way to describe my stance on FF skill vs. luck is that they are two halves. With the skill half, some people are better than others. They prepare better and make better predictions..... But everyone is still subject to the luck half of the equation.

 

anyway, i digress. Its a fun topic to discuss. look forward to browing this blog from time to time and hope you do well in all your leagues. i'd wish you luck but... you know

[madd futher mucker 36]

I know that you have beem high on Mike Thomas for awhile now, and he has been ok through two weeks. He is available in a couple of my 12 team non-ppr leagues. Are you still feelin' him and, if so, what is your outlook for the rest of his year.

 

Enjoy the read each week.

 

 

I'm actually glad you brought that up. Because it reminded me of another 'story line' I had planned on mentioning here and that I acted upon just last night. I put out a trade offer last night (which was accepted) of Mike Thomas for Lance Moore. I still like M Thomas as a fine WR4/flex, with some upside especially in PPR.

 

But let's go back to 2008 when Lance Moore was healthy and Reggie Bush was out for 6 games. The result - Lance Moore 'went off': 7 TDs and almost 600 yds in those 6 games. Pierre Thomas will benefit some from Bush's injury but the guy who will REALLY benefit will likely be Lance Moore!

[madd futher mucker 36]

I was very active in my leagues in preparation for week 3 so lets get right to it.

 

In Team 1, my 1 - 1 semi-dynasty 12 team 22 player PPR league, I made a big trade, trading Foster for S Jackson and Sproles. S Jax is 27 and Foster is 24 years old and looking good. It is a questionable deal to say the least, but after landing Tolbert on the waiver wire, it gives me a formidable RB group (9 RBs right now) for a future upgrade trade at WR. My team looks like this now (starters in bold): starters in bobenching Turner last week, but this week he’s a must play. But no roster changes were made in that league, and I‘m otherwise playing pretty much the same line-up:

P Manning, Cassel, Witten, Z Miller, Gould, Phil, Miami

Bradshaw, S Jax, Turner, Snelling, Tolbert, C Williams, Sproles, B Scott, BJ G-E

Owens, Gaffney, Floyd, Cotchery, M Thomas, Amendola

 

Team 2 lost again last week, going to 0-2 because I made the mistake of rolling with Eli rather than Schaub. My Naanee pick-up after week 1 didn’t last long in this 10 team 20 player NON-PPR keep-10 deep keeper league. I waived him out for Mike Tolbert, who is going right in my line-up. And i traded M Thomas for Lance moore. Now I’ve got (starters bolded).

Schaub, Eli Manning, Finley, Celek, Rackers

P Thomas, Best, M Bush, R Williams, Ch Taylor, Tolbert

Owens, Floyd, Gaffney, Wallace, Jacoby Jones, Knox, L Moore, Murphy, S Rice

 

Now it is on to my undefeated teams: My 10 team auction league “A” team is so strong I really need not mention it, but just to let you know what a great 10 team league looks like:

Rivers, Eli, Finley, Gonzalez, Kaeding, Tenn

Foster, Bradshaw, Forte, Moreno, Br Jackson

Fitz, Austin, R Moss, Nicks, Knox, S Rice

 

For Team 3, my 2-0 Family and Friends team, I was again active on the waiver wire with some wholesale changes (12 team 16 player PPR keep 7 keeper), so my team now looks like this: I dropped Campbell and picked up (and am gonna start) rookie Sam Bradford until Ben gets back:

Big Ben, Bradford, Stafford, Finley, Gresham, Rackers, MIA,

MJD, Foster, Br Jackson, M Bush, Hillis

Bowe, MSW, Gaffney, L Moore

 

In Team 4, again 2-0, my redraft league (12 team 17 player PPR with a double flex for RB/WR or TE) I also made a few changes:

Eli, Finley, Z Miller, Gresham, NYG, NE, Cundiff

Gore, Foster, Stewart, B Scott, Ben J G-E

Fitz, Floyd, Gaffney, Jacoby Jones, Hester

 

 

Lastly, Team 5 is my high stakes FBG/ Fantasy Football Players Chapionship team where I‘m 2-0. The league is a 12 team 20 player no-trade PPR league with 1 ½ PPR for TEs, a double flex for WRs, RBs, or TEs, and power scoring for return TDs. I won my week 1 waiver bid for Shipley - $80 ($1000 season budget), and TENN D - $40. I picked up Steven Williams for $56 in week 2, dropping McCluster (I’ve sure been wrong about him so far). I’m rolling with pretty much the same line-up this week , switching out my defenses. I’m still undecided about Harvin in my line-up this week.

Romo, Young, Clark, Z Miller, CIN, TENN, Tynes

Gore, Best, Hightower, Ch Taylor, K Williams

Harvin, Floyd, M Williams, Shipley, Edelman, Cribbs, S Williams, S Rice

 

Many of my match-ups are gonna be very close ones this week so I need to get out my rabbits foot. And good luck to all of you this weekend too.

[madd futher mucker 36]

One thing about fantasy football is that sometimes you find yourself rooting against your favorite team. I grew up with close ties to the Green Bay Packers and my office is a virtual Packer shrine to them. But in my FBG/FFPC high stakes league, I was up by 45 points and my opponent still had Rodgers and Driver to go Monday night. I figured that the Packers and I both could easily be winners. But Driver had 9 catches and Rodgers had a big night passing and ran one in for a TD himself. The Pack got the ball back with about 2 minutes left and were driving with all of their time outs. I was up by 5 when Rodgers made a run that narrowed my lead to less than 3. At that point I was rooting for anything other than more passes from Rodgers, especially any more to Driver (it is PPR). Next play? Short pass to James Jones who fumbles the football to the Bears. Bears kick a FG with 4 secs remaining. I win by 2 to go 3-0 for the season so far. Sorry about that, Pack, but I’m a happy camper.

 

The problem you have with multiple teams is that you sometimes find yourself “drawing to an inside straight.” An example was last week with Frank Gore. If Gore puts up less than 20 points I win one match-up and lose in one league. If Gore puts up over 25, same deal in reverse. But if Gore puts up between 20 and 25, I win both! Actually I really thought it might just happen, but then SF got the ball again and Gore got 30+ fantasy points. Lesson: an inside straight is a 4 outer - it just doesn’t happen on the river very often.

 

The trade that wasn’t: (yet - a full week later). I made a shark move in 3 leagues for Lance Moore last week. (With Bush out, I ‘knew’ that Moore would be the primary beneficiary). In my deep keeper league, I offered Mike Thomas for Moore last Tuesday night and the other owner accepted Wednesday morning. The trade was sitting out there pending commissioner approval all Wednesday. Late Wednesday night that same owner (forgetting about the trade he made) dropped Moore on the waiver wire and picked up Naanee. Our primary commissioner for this league was moving from one state to another to start a new job. I finally got ahold of him Saturday night and he said he’d take care of it. I had planned to start Moore on Sunday. By the time I got ahold of the commish again, Sunday’s game had already started. Of course, Moore ‘went off’ for big numbers. Fortunately it did not affect the outcome of my match (or I would have been pissed). Last night (Monday) I again talked to the commissioner and he was going to put Moore on my team, but (not my problem!) he had to figure out what to do with Mike Thomas and Naanee. Tonight so far - almost a week later, I’ve still got Thomas on my team. Waivers are tomorrow night. Stay tuned….

 

I've noticed that quite a few owners are desperate at RB based on posts like “Forsett or the ‘Law Firm’” (That’s BJGE and in my mind it‘s pretty much of a toss-up - just don‘t expect much), “Torain or Blount“ . “ James Starks“ (totally avoid any of these). In my mind, if you have to chose between RB desperation plays, the answer is Peyton Hillis - but you already knew that.

 

I was NOT WRONG about Dexter MccCuster, I was wrong about Todd Haley and Charlie Weis!! McCluster has looked fantastic WHEN HE’S GOTTEN THE BALL IN HIS HANDS. Just this week alone: McCluster's first touch was a handoff out of the Wildcat for a TD. He then had his first catch on a 4th & 1, and finished with another short catch, avoiding four tacklers to go over 30 yards for yet another TD. But through the 1st 3 games, his TARGETs have been 4-3-3 - for a grand total of 10.

 

I thought that they would use him in a 'Wes Welker' role in the KC offense, but how can you trust a guy who only get 10 targets in 3 games?

 

By comparison: KC TE Tony Moeaki has been targeted almost twice as often (19), as has Detriot‘s Brandon Pettigrew. Detroit's other TE, Tony Scheffler, has been targeted 20 times so far. And Danny Amendola, who has played only about 60% of the total offensive snaps for the Rams, has had 23 total targets.

 

After seeing only 2 targets in week 1, Darrius Heyward-Bey was targeted 24 times in the following two weeks - for a total of 26 targets and 10 catches (he’s improved, but still has his share of drops). Those are big-time stud target numbers!

 

So what is going on with the KC offense?

 

RESULTS FOR THE WEEK: I again finished the week at 4-2, bringing my record for the year to 13-5. This week, I was HAPPY finishing with only two losses.

 

In my FBG/FFPC high stakes league, I’m still in the top 70 overall and I am 3-0. (I can report that FFToday’s Mikes - Krueger and MacGregor - also won their matches (Mike Krueger put up a big score and moved up about 400 places in the standings to 315th place). BTW, this week I don’t expect to win, as week 4 is my worst bye week (Romo, Harvin and Mike Thomas on byes, and Best has a turf toe). And I fully expect to drop well out of the top 100.

 

I cruised to 3-0 records in my auction league and redraft leagues as well. And I won my dynasty league, bringing my record to 2-1.

 

But in my Family and Friends keeper, I lost to my oldest son (major bummer), taking me to 2-1. And the unkindest cut of all is my deep keeper league where I’ve yet to record a single win (my team aint half bad, either).

 

This up-coming week is when the real fun starts - having to contend with, and plan for the bye weeks. If you have time, I suggest that you analyze your opposing owner's bye week problems in order to capitalize on them through trades where you might have an advantage because trading with you would be more appetizing for them than anything they can pick from the waiver wire. So theoretically you should be a slight 'winner' (you can't get too greedy though) in the trades that they will feel they HAVE TO make. Good luck!

 

And again, I love getting your feedback and discussion - this IS supposed to be an INTERACTIVE blog!

[madd futher mucker 36]

Good fantasy owners must, by necessity, be much more pre-emptive in order to get great waiver wire pick-ups. This means that they MUST spend time studying target stats looking for trends. There are a few trends I’ve spotted that are well worth pursuing. The first one that caught my eye was Darius Heyward-Bey. After seeing only two targets in week one, he got a total of 24 in weeks 2 and 3 - these are true stud target numbers. And while he’s only caught 10 balls so far, he caused at least two inference penalties because he beat the receiver and would have caught TD passes if not interfered with. Most importantly, he has earned the trust of Bruce Gradkowski. I’ve already picked him up in my redraft league, and have offers out for him in a few other leagues as well.

 

Danny Amendola won’t get you many TDs, but in PPR he is another one that stands out with a very consistent 7 to 9 targets each week. He's been added to my 22 player semi-dynasty team.

 

Lastly, Detroit is going to both of their tight ends early and often: Between Scheffler and Pettigrew, they have shared an incredible 39 targets in the 1st 3 weeks. (A league-mate dropped Pettigrew after week 1, and I’ve got a waiver bid out on him in my FBG/FFPC high-stakes league.) Seriously, carefully consider these guys and be ready to make a move BEFORE your competition does!

 

You'll notice I sneeked the "Law Firm" - Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis onto my roster in a few leagues as well.

 

It took me a good hour looking at the “Questionable” and “Doubtfuls” on the injury report tonight and trying to make some sense out of a few of my starting line-ups. I finally came to the conclusion that I’ve got a lot of decisions to make before game time that I cannot begin to make right now. I’m assuming that many of you reading this are just as confused about your line-ups this week as I am with mine.

 

About the only team I don’t have to worry about is my 3-0 auction league team, where I can start any 9 healthy bodies and win, so let‘s move right on to the others.

 

In Team 1, my 2 - 1 semi-dynasty 12 team 22 player PPR league, I picked up Gradkowski and Amendola last week and dumped Matt Cassel and Hartline. Of course, both Cassell and Hartline played their best games of the season immediately after I dropped them. This week, I’ve made no roster changes at all, so we’ll see what happens. Of course, S Jax is a game-time decision. Regardless, I’m likely going to roll with (starters bolded):

P Manning, Gradkowski, Witten, Z Miller, Gould, Phil, Miami

Bradshaw, S Jax, Turner, Snelling, Tolbert, C Williams, Sproles, B Scott, BJG-E

Owens, Gaffney, Floyd, Cotchery, M Thomas, Amendola

 

I’m hoping to break into the win column this week with Team 2, my 0-3 deep keeper, especially now that my trade for Lance Moore finally got processed. I had to pick up a potential one-week play, Kenneth Darby, even though I wasn‘t fond of the idea. With ALL of my RBs virtually game time decisions, I just had little choice. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if S Jax is a last minute start, and I have to sit Darby anyway. It’s been years, but the best analogy I can think of to picking up Darby is like when you pick up the last girl left in the bar before closing time: not only is she ugly, but you don’t even know if she’s gonna put out for you. (Did I just type that???) For now, with all the dinged up situations, including Louis Murphy, I have no clue who to start. The only ones I have pencilled in as of right now are in bold:

Schaub, Eli, Finley, Celek, Rackers

P Thomas, Best, M Bush, R Williams, Darby, Tolbert

Owens, Floyd, Gaffney, Wallace, Jacoby Jones, Knox, L Moore, Murphy, S Rice

 

For Team 3, my 2-1 Family and Friends (12 team 16 player PPR keep 7 keeper) team, I picked up and started Lance Moore last week, but still lost my match-up. This week I picked up the Saints Defense so now my team is:

Big Ben, Bradford, Stafford, Finley, Rackers, NOS

MJD, Foster, Br Jackson, M Bush, Hillis, K Williams

Bowe, MSW, Gaffney, L Moore

 

In Team 4, my redraft league where I am 3-0, (12 team 17 player PPR with a double flex for RB/WR or TE) I saw no real need for any roster moves this week. (The likely starters in bold. With the double flex, I‘ll probably roll with a ‘3 TE set‘,

Eli, Finley, Z Miller, Gresham, NYG, Cundiff

Gore, Foster, Stewart, Scott, BJG-E

Fitz, Floyd, Gaffney, Jacoby Jones, Hester, DHB

 

And in Team 5, my high stakes FBG/Fantasy Football Players Championship team, I will have to contend with my toughest bye week of the whole season (Romo, Harvin, and Mike Williams all on bye) - as well as Best’s turf toe. In this national contest, every win and fantasy point counts and I‘m 3-0. Keeping it rolling this week will be tough. The league is a 12 team 20 player no-trade PPR league with 1 ½ PPR for TEs, a double flex for WRs, RBs, or TEs, and power scoring for return TDs. I plan on winning my waiver bid for Brandon Pettigrew (I’m bidding a small fortune for him), so I can roll with another ‘3 TE set’. Since the scoring bonuses receptions by TEs, I figure this is my best chance to stay close to the leaders. Even though I haven’t won him yet, I’m going pretend I have and add him to my team for purposes of this week’s starting line-up. I’m thinkin’:

Romo, Young, Dal Clark, Z Miller, Pettigrew, CIN, TENN, Tynes

Gore, Best, Hightower, Ch Taylor, K Williams (Wash)

Harvin, Floyd, M Williams, Shipley, Edelman, Cribbs, S Williams, S Rice

 

I sure hope your decisions for this weekend are easier than mine are and that your results are as good or better!

[stonewall 647]

 

 

Danny Amendola won’t get you many TDs, but in PPR he is another one that stands out with a very consistent 7 to 9 targets each week. He's been added to my 22 player semi-dynasty team.

 

 

Funny you should mention Amendola. After checking his stat lines and targets (16 catches on 22 targets), combined with St. Louis at home facing the Seahawks who have the 30th ranked pass D, combined with SJax being iffy, combined with having Miles and my backup Mike Williams (TB) on byes, I picked him up earlier this evening and am starting him in 2 leagues. Hopefully, it will pan out.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Thanks for checking in on Mike and myself, mfm, in the FPC. Yes, thankfully I earned a much needed win last week. I was just (finally) writing a recap of how I'm doing in that and the NFFC Online Championship to post in the blog. I wanted to give your team some props in the article. What is your team name?

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I found it.

 

You did just escape the Rodgers-Driver game last Monday. I was in a similar situation between two leagues, one being the NFFC one.

 

In NFFC I was all-in going against Johnny Knox. In the other I had a couple defensive players and was going against Mason Crosby. So I really was messed up, as I didn't want either offense on the field. I won both by the slimest of margins. If Knox had 1 more catch for 3 yards I would have lost, and the other game I won by a point.

 

I was sure GB was going to roll down the field and kick a FG, Chicago gets the ball back and throws a pass to Knox in soft coverage. Thankfully that didn't happen! Thank you James Jones for the fumble, you bum.

[madd futher mucker 36]

It is only half time of the Pats - Dolphins game, but I can knock this thing out and go to bed early, as my results for the week are not going to change. BTW, since I know stonewall reads this thing regularly, congrats to him for starting Davone Bess tonite. He's having a huge game so far.

 

For me, this was another week-end of 4 wins and 2 losses, and I guess I should be happy with that.

Fortunately, despite having 3 players out on bye, I won my FFPC match-up to go 4-0, and I find myself still in the top 70 in total points out of 1608 fantasy teams. I did have a tough last minute decision whether or not to play Jahvid Best (and bench Hightower), but I made the right choice. (BTW, the Mikes representing FFtoday teams weren’t quite so fortunate - Mike K lost a close one to go 2-2, and let's just say i couldn't find MacGregor's team in the standings this week.)

 

I also am undefeated in both my auction league and in my redraft league, and increased my record to 3-1 in Family and Friends. So my combined record in those four leagues is an awesome 15-1.

 

On the flip side, my other two leagues aren't going so well. I couldn’t find the right player combination in my dynasty league, where I’m now 2-2. And I just can’t seem to get started in my deep keeper league, where I’m off to an 0-4 start. When you dig yourself into a hole that deep, it is hard to climb out. But I’ve learned that if I continue to make all the right weekly roster moves and put in my best starting line-up, anything is possible at this stage of the season. So if YOU HAVE started off at 0-4 or 1-3, keep the faith, baby - the worst thing you can do is give up, and the second worst thing you can do is panic with your roster management. Just keep trying to make the ’right’ decisions, and you'll still have a chance.

 

Oddly, my worst defeat was not either of the games I lost, but was losing my blind bid for Brandon Pettigrew in my FFPC league. My wife would say that I jinxed myself by being so sure I’d have the top bid that I had the audacity to insert him in my line-up above in this blog, before the bids were actually opened. I thought I was pretty good at blind bidding, but I’m finding out that this high-stakes thing is a different animal - people bid much higher than I’m used to. There were 5 teams that actually bid on him and I came in second best. My bid of $262 (based on an over-all season budget of $1000) lost to a winning bid of $279. Pettigrew (8-91 or 21.1 fantasy points) would have gone right into my line-up instead of Steven Williams, who put up 3-32 or 6.2 fantasy points. Since both head-to-head record AND total points are important in this national contest, a loss of 14.9 points could be huge. Ironically, the team that won the bid from me is the same team that lost the bid for Williams by $2 from me after week two week two. In another irony, the top (and only) bid on Pettigrew after week 2 was $54, but it was only a conditional bid in case that bidder hadn’t gotten his first choice - which left Pettigrew as a free agent for week 3. As I said, the FBG/FFPC is a different animal because the 20 player rosters make the waiver wire extremely thin, and because of the short regular season format, bids go much higher as guys get desperate quite early.

 

Which gets us to the subject of blind bid strategy. Blind bid waivers seem to have 'taken over' in fantasy popularity. The reason is simple - blind bidding is just a lot more fun. If you league hasn’t gone to a blind bidding system yet, you might suggest that they try it next year. Every blind bid ‘opening’ is suspenseful - like seeing if you got a new toy for Christmas, or just a lump of coal! Normally, in 12 team 16 and 17 player rosters, I’ve found that I like to have about 20 waiver transactions for the year. On a $100 waiver budget, that means my average transaction size is only about $5.

 

Even for that rare ’sure fire’ potential weekly roster contributor, I’d seldom bid too much over $20, because I’ve got to save some money for lots of $1 and $2 transactions to cover bye weeks. And as many found out in bidding for Brandon Jackson, there are very few 'sure fire' guys left out there on the wire in 12 team leagues, so those who overpay can cost themselves in lost opportunity later in the season. It is extremely important to be very sure that the guy you are paying a premium price for is not going to be a one week wonder. Most of the time, this isn’t very clear at all. And I’d NEVER overpay for a one week injury play like a Kenneth Darby.

 

One other thing I’ve found extremely helpful is logging all competitors bids for all players every week, whether they were successful or not. After about the 3rd week, you’ll notice some bidding patterns develop (just like betting patterns in poker). Based on these bidding patterns (and your competition's roster needs, you can pretty much tell who is going to bid on which players and how much they are likely to bid. Even when you can analyze the bidding patterns and think you know what it will take to get him, you better be right if you really want the player. There is nothing worse than coming in second like I did on Pettigrew.

 

If anyone else has any other waiver-wire blind bidding tips, PLEASE chime in with your strategy. I hope to hear from many of you and learn some new strategies myself.. Or feel free to discuss any other aspect of fantasy football that you want to talk about.

[stonewall 647]

BTW, since I know stonewall reads this thing regularly, congrats to him for starting Davone Bess tonite. He's having a huge game so far.

 

 

Thanks Madd....Bess won my game for me in my 12-team winners-only redraft league, and is still churning out yards and catches as we speak. Yours and my "Bess Guess" was on target. I needed 10 from him in a non-ppr, and wasn't exactly confident. Not bad for weekly waiver wire fodder. Mike Thomas and Crabtree, my other two free-agent options that I could have picked up and plugged in, both had respectable games also.

 

Enjoy the read.....keep 'em coming.... and am glad to here your year is going well thusfar. In my 5 leagues, I am currently 17-2-1, and couldn't be happier. It sure helps to have Foster and Hillis in 4 of those leagues.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I did win my NFFC game with the highest score in the league, so I'm at both ends of the spectrum this week between those two leagues.

 

Talk about horseshoes where the sun don't shine... 3-0 team in my league is all-in with a sub-100 score but up by only 10 points going into MNF. The guy's opponent has Randy Moss and Dan Carpenter. Geez.

 

I noticed in the blind bidding this week, in the high-stakes leagues, that people spent considerably more on speculative picks than they did the first two weeks. Maybe it is desperation, or frustration if they got shutout the first couple weeks. I was wondering what happened to Pettigrew! I saw his stat line kept going up in the first half yesterday and then when I went to check your team I was like, "where's Pettigrew?" since you pretty much guaranteed you were going to get him. Maybe you have more readers than you think

[madd futher mucker 36]

In my 5 leagues, I am currently 17-2-1, and couldn't be happier. It sure helps to have Foster and Hillis in 4 of those leagues.

 

Nice - next year YOU get to do the blog!

[madd futher mucker 36]

I did win my NFFC game with the highest score in the league, so I'm at both ends of the spectrum this week between those two leagues.

 

 

What is your record in the NFFC, Mike? I hope you have a great run in that one!

[FlaHawker 24]

I did win my NFFC game with the highest score in the league, so I'm at both ends of the spectrum this week between those two leagues.

 

Talk about horseshoes where the sun don't shine... 3-0 team in my league is all-in with a sub-100 score but up by only 10 points going into MNF. The guy's opponent has Randy Moss and Dan Carpenter. Geez.

 

I noticed in the blind bidding this week, in the high-stakes leagues, that people spent considerably more on speculative picks than they did the first two weeks. Maybe it is desperation, or frustration if they got shutout the first couple weeks. I was wondering what happened to Pettigrew! I saw his stat line kept going up in the first half yesterday and then when I went to check your team I was like, "where's Pettigrew?" since you pretty much guaranteed you were going to get him. Maybe you have more readers than you think

In my high stakes league (WCOFF) I am sitting at 3-1. The blind bid has been interesting to say the least and since I have never played with any of these guys before I didn't really know how it would play out. I tried to do some research to get some data but did not find anything I was looking for. For example, I tried to find historical data that suggested whether or not players picked up off waivers early in the season were more likely to have bigger impacts than players picked up later in the season. There are several teams in my 12 team league who yet to spend on dime on the WW and I am guessing thy are hoping to have that bankroll later in the year when a key player or two gets injured or some unknown commodity breaks out. In my case, I have pretty much spent my $1000 budget. I have a bit over 10% left. In addition to streaming Ks and Ds, my main pickups so far have been WRs: Stephen Williams AZ, Demariyus Thomas DEN, and Brian Hartline MIA, because I blew it in the draft when I took Housh to be my WR 3. Therefore, I made the decision to go all in on WW WRs early in the season hoping to hit on one guy. I won't have much WW money left as we move forward, but it won't matter if I don't make the playoffs or even if I do. Once the playoffs start, there are no more WW pickups allowed.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

What is your record in the NFFC, Mike? I hope you have a great run in that one!

 

Thanks. I am 3-1 and really should have been 4-0 if not for the damn kicker. Here is a summary of both teams and what happened so far written from before Week 4:

 

http://fftoday.com/blog/2010/10/04/early-high-stakes-league-recap/

[madd futher mucker 36]

When teams start off 0 - 4, 1 - 3, or even 2 -2, there is a natural tendency for panic to set in. That, coupled with a rash of injuries like we experienced before last weekend, and the reality of bye week replacements - creates buying opportunities and unique waiver wire values for those who can take advantage of them. I believe that the buying opportunities created by these three factors far exceed (and in fact actually drive) the buying opportunities that thatfacilitate any ‘buy low’ trades. I didn’t make any trades last week. I DID however make some great ‘value’ pick up waiver wire adds driven by the factors I mentioned above, among them: Felix Jones, Shonn Greene, Visanthe Shiancoe and Tony Scheffler. I only made one waiver pick-up based on timing of an identified ’buy low’ and that was Kenny Britt (who I believe is about to break out).

 

As I said last week, when YOUR team starts off badly, avoid hitting the panic button. But try to analyze what has gone wrong and what your options are - long term (as opposed to crisis mode) - to make improvements.

 

I have two teams that are not performing to expectations - my 0-4 deep keeper (team 2) and my 2 and 2 dynasty team (team 1). After looking at each situation, I decided that my teams are right on the course, but what I call ‘variance’ and others call ‘bad luck’ is skewing the result. With my 0-4 deep keeper, my team has put up the second-most points in its 5 team division, while having more points scored against it than any other team in the whole league. Similarly my 2-2 dynasty team has the highest total point total of all 12 teams in the league, but just happened to play against the top scoring team in the league when absorbing both losses. Sh1t happens, variance is a fact of life, and bad luck ultimately = good luck over the long haul.

 

Just take full advantage of the teams that DO over-react and DO present you with gifts.

 

This week in Team 1, my 2 - 2 semi-dynasty 12 team 22 player PPR league, I picked up Scheffler and Woodhead, dropping Cotchery and the Miami D.

I’m most likely rolling with (starters bolded):

P Manning, Gradkowski, Witten, Scheffler, Z Miller, Gould, Phil

Bradshaw, S Jax, Turner, Snelling, Tolbert, C Williams, Sproles, B Scott, BJG-E, Woodhead

Owens, Gaffney, Floyd, M Thomas, Amendola

 

With 0-4 Team 2, my 0-3 deep keeper, my only move was to add back Mike Thomas and drop Darby. This week’s starters are (bold):

Schaub, Eli Manning, Finley, Celek, Rackers

P Thomas, Best, M Bush, R Williams, Tolbert

Owens, Floyd, Gaffney, Wallace, Jacoby Jones, Knox, Moore, Murphy, M Thomas, S Rice

 

I picked up the most value in Team 3, my 2-1 Family and Friends (12 team 16 player PPR keep 7 keeper) team, with Greene, F Jones, and Brandon Tate. Now my team is:

Big Ben, Bradford, Stafford, Finley, Rackers, NO

MJD, Foster, M Bush, Hillis, Greene, F Jones

Bowe, MSW, Gaffney, L Moore, Br Tate

 

In Team 4, my redraft league where I am 3-0, (12 team 17 player PPR with a double flex for RB/WR or TE) saw the roster additions of Shiancoe, Britt and the SF D. I‘m going with:

Eli, Finley, Z Miller, Gresham, Shiancoe SF, Cundiff

Gore, Foster, Stewart, Scott, BJG-E

Fitz, Floyd, Gaffney, Jacoby Jones, Britt

 

Waiver bids don’t open until Friday night in Team 5, my high stakes FBG/ Fantasy Football Players Chapionship team, and I learned my lesson last week. I’m not going to jinx myself again by announcing in advance who I am going to try to add to my team! Lets just say I’m very hopeful of going to 5-0 this week with:

Romo, Young, Dal Clark, Z Miller, CIN, TENN, Tynes

Gore, Best, Hightower, Ch Taylor, K Williams (Wash)

Harvin, Floyd, M Williams, Shipley, Edelman, Cribbs, S Williams, S Rice

 

I’m also very hopeful that your teams have as good of results as I expect from mine! And on a personal note our youngest daughter just gave birth to her first child, so I’ll be off to Houston for the weekend to see my new grand-son, Nicholas. I was just thinking that it is easier for me to name off the names of the players on my fantasy teams than it is to remember the names of all my grandkids. Either I‘m:

A ) Starting to get too many grandkids - (especially for Christmas and Birthdays) ; or

B ) More than slightly addicted to fantasy football; or

C ) All of the above

(the correct answer is C)

 

Good luck this weekend!

[stonewall 647]

Congrats on the new grand son MFM.....

 

 

Also, (as I am sure you are well aware) keep an eye on Bradshaw on team 1. I have heard whispers of a possibly lightened workload this week due to his ankle injury.

[madd futher mucker 36]

All my results for the weekend's games are in, and this week I finally saw a return to a 5-win week from my six teams. I will take that one loss, given that I started Jermichael Finley on four of my teams. There were also three other good aspects to this week‘s results:

 

- I lost my horse-collar in my deep keeper league, FINALLY getting my 1st win this year.

- I am still undefeated with 3 of my teams now at 5-0. (FFPC, Auction, and Redraft leagues.)

- My ten players put up 196.2 points this week, bring me into the TOP 10 in overall total fantasy points for the season after 5 weeks in this national high stakes FBG/FFPC contest (after an overnight stat corrections).

Wow, I really NEVER EXPECTED to be this high in this, and I doubt my ability to stay there, but I'll sure take it!

 

While I’m very proud to be among the very top players in the FFPC, I'm definitely not feeling 'unstoppable'. I'll just take it a week at a time and not get too far ahead of myself. Mainly, I just hope I don’t get bitten by the injury bug, Playing against some of the best players in the nation (including Mike K and Mike M), it takes a HUGE does of luck to go along with any FF skill that I might have.

 

In my other not-so-good leagues, I saw my dynasty league go to 3-2, and my only loss was in my Family and Friends keeper, which is now also 3-2. In total, I'm 22-8 on the year.

 

My bids for waiver wire fodder in the FFPC were successful, but in this case (unlike with Pettigrew in week 3 - I won’t soon forget being out-bid by $15 on him) I might have wasted over 1/3 of my total waiver budget on nothing. I spent about $122 on Harry Douglas, who looked good on 8 targets LAST week, but only saw two balls this weekend (he caught both, but for only 17 yards. Joel Dreessen was my other pick-up ($209) based on HIS 9 targets last week (compared to 3 for Owen Daniels.) I thought there was a chance that Dreessen was replacing Daniels as Houston’s ‘go-to’ TE. Well this week, Dreessen saw only two targets and didn’t catch a ball, while Daniels had 3 catches for 45 yards on 5 targets.

 

Looking at the target stats, I’ve mentioned picking up Danny Amendola in PPR leagues a couple of weeks ago. This kid got targeted NINETEEN times. If you did not already pick him up, you must pick him up NOW. He’s the Rams main receiver right now with the loss of Mark Clayton.

 

Another guy who may have been dropped and just might be out on your waiver wire is Pierre Garcon. In his 1st game back from his week 1 injury, he was targeted 13 times and pulled down 6 catches. Don't snooze if he's out there.

 

Finally, I have stayed away from Steve Johnson because I didn’t trust the Buffalo offense. But with Fitzpatrick a behind center, the passing game has new life. Definitely worth a look, along with Lee Evans. Steve Johnson was targeted 9 times and converted TWO TDs. He has seen 31 targets on the year, which by the way is the same number of targets as Greg Jennings has seen.

 

Speaking of Jennings, while it appears that other teams are following Chicago’s game-plan against the Packers and taking away the vertical routes to Jennings, his talent is too much to keep down over the whole season. IMO, now is the time to get out an offer to panicked owners for him - especially in keeper and dynasty leagues. And two other guys that present your last chance for two ‘buy-low’ opportunities are Mike Wallace and Dez Bryant. All three of these guys will see better days ahead. I got offers out for Jennings and Bryant in many of my leagues tonight, in a few cases for Peyton Hillis - I’m ‘selling-high' on him.

 

I'd sure appreciate any comments or discussion about any of this.

[stonewall 647]

Looking at the target stats, I’ve mentioned picking up Danny Amendola in PPR leagues a couple of weeks ago. This kid got targeted NINETEEN times. If you did not already pick him up, you must pick him up NOW. He’s the Rams main receiver right now with the loss of Mark Clayton.

 

 

Still no faith in LRob, Madd?.......lol.

 

In ppr leagues, Amendola is the WR to own in St. Louis. In fact, I recommeded him to Cara a couple of weeks ago as a plug-n-play. Probably good in most games for 5-8/40-70/vey few TD's. However, if (and I know it is a BIG if) LRob can remain healthy, he has a chance to shine with Bradford tossing the rock and Clayton done for the year.

 

BTW.....I lost Finley in 3 of 5 leagues myself.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Still no faith in LRob, Madd?.......lol.

 

In ppr leagues, Amendola is the WR to own in St. Louis.

 

Great question! Amendola in PPR is by far the only slam-dunk receiver in the Rams offense.

 

I'm a little sceptical of L Rob, although i agree that he's probably got the most talent of the others. Brandon Gibson has played well at times. I understand that Gilyard is looking good in practice (he must cure his tendency to drop passes, but the talent is there.) And I wouldn't be at all surprised if Hoomanawanui emerges as a pass catching TE now that he's finally healthy.

So I'd like to see one week of both targets and productivity from L Rob before I consider him as anything other than a pre-emptive speculative pick-up. I do favor pre-emptive speculative pick-ups though - beating everyone else to the pick-up, especially for teams with deep rosters and are low on the waiver priority.

 

Unless you've got an extra roster spot to play with, though, I probably wouldn't roster L Rob this week. There's still a chance that the Rams might pull the trigger on a trade, if no other receiver emerges this week-end.

 

 

 

BTW, Stonewall is one of few that regularly respond or reply to the blog, and i appreciate it. Without turning this into a "help" blog, I'll remind you all that I WILL answer any other questions relating to any aspect of fantasy football loosely within the context of the general discussion here. So feel free to join in!

[Bones40 0]

Love the blog, MFM, I read it every week. I find the way you take us through your process to be quite fascinating and enlightening.

 

Couple questions:

 

1) I thought I saw you pick up Felix Jones in one of your leagues. I made a play for him in both my money PPR leagues (LT and Gaffney for Forte and Felix last week, Witten, Collie, M. Bush for D. Clark and Felix this week). I expected him to produce nicely coming out of the bye week, and he did. But what do you see going forward? I really think he's going to break out this year, but would value your opinion.

 

2) If you don't mind I'd like ya to look at my main money league team (12 team league) and give me some input. It's a funky starting line up (QB, TE, RB, W/T, 3xWR/RB flex, K, 3 IDP) so sometimes it's hard to draw comparison's to more traditional leagues. Anyway, here's the team.

 

Rodgers, Eli

Clark, Hernandez, Finley

Foster, P. Thomas, Felix

Austin, Knox, Wallace

Baronas

Urlacher, Laurinaitis, Landry

1 Empty Roster spot

 

I'm sitting in second place at 4-1 and the second highest scoring team but I really don't know what to think about my team. I don't like my WR depth, but considering I can play one of my TE as a WR it doesn't scare me too bad. I was able to stack my TE's and don't feel like dropping any yet (and this league never trades for TE).

 

I'm just sitting and staring at the team and thinking of how I can make it better. Not sure what I want to fill my free spot with. I've got a bid out for BJGE. I might have a shot at L. Moore but doubt it. Other guys I'm thinking about are Britt, Mason and Demaryius Thomas. Or I could fill the spot with an IDP so I don't have to drop the guys I have on their byes. I like the IDP's I have quite a bit.

 

I don't want to turn this into a help thread, but I'd love your input on this.

 

Thanks for keeping this blog going, and congrats on your success in your nation wide league!

[madd futher mucker 36]

I'm glad you're a fan and thanks for the kudos about my FFPC success so far. You really didn't say if it is a 12 teamer or if it is PPR. When i answer questions on the "help board", I give all the noobs hell if they do not provide all the info.

 

Assuming it is a 12 teamer, I really like your team and can see why you are competing for the championship in your league.

 

Regarding Felix, I got him mainly because he was an available talent, not because of any great need at RB or because I truly believe in him (or his situation). Dallas is very unpredictable in their offense. They often say one thing and do the opposite, especially with their RBs. Jerry Jones said that Felix was going to get more carries. For once, they followed through....for now. I hope it continues, because Jones has the talent. So IF he continues to get the touches, and IF he stays healthy, this COULD be a break-out year.

 

You have a very tight roster for an IDP league. Fortunately you have lots of flexibility and you only have to play one RB in any given week. I would probably not go after BJGE, especially in a PPR. Nor would I go after another defensive player.

 

I like Moore in PPR, but i just picked up Reggie Bush in one league which tells you that I believe Moore will begin to lose value in a couple of weeks when Bush comes back.

 

Old man Mason is still a solid choice in PPR, I think. But Kenny Britt has far more upside and is beginning to break out. He is definitely my choice in non-PPR, and I would strongly consider him even in PPR. I rostered Britt in one league last week myself.

 

Here's my take on Johnnie Knox: He is very talented, but he is purely a situational player right now . Play him only when Chicago is against a team with a below average pass rush. He will put up numbers when - and only when - Cutler has time to throw from a 5 or 7 step drop without getting killed. Against any team with a decent pass rush, keep him on your bench.

 

That is why you must pick up another WR IMO.

[Bones40 0]

I'm glad you're a fan and thanks for the Kodo's about my FFPC success so far. You really didn't say if it is a 12 teamer or if it is PPR. When i answer questions on the "help board", I give all the noobs hell if they do not provide all the info.

 

Assuming it is a 12 teamer, I really like your team and can see why you are competing for the championship in your league.

 

Regarding Felix, I got him mainly because he was an available talent, not because of any great need at RB or because I truly believe in him (or his situation). Dallas is very unpredictable in their offense. They often say one thing and do the opposite, especially with their RBs. Jerry Jones said that Felix was going to get more carries. For once they followed through....for now. I hope it continues, because Jones has the talent, when healthy. So IF he continues to get the touches, and IF he stays healthy, this COULD be a break-out year.

 

You have a very tight roster for an IDP league. Fortunately you have lots of flexibility and you only have to play one RB in any given week. I would probably not go after BJGE, especially in a PPR. Nor would I go after another defensive player.

 

I like Moore in PPR, but i just picked up Reggie Bush in one league which tells you that I believe Moore will begin to lose value in a couple of weeks when Bush comes back.

 

Old man Mason is still solid and would be my choice in PPR, I think. Kenny Britt is beginning to break out and is definitely my choice in non-PPR.

 

Here's my take on Johnnie Knox: He is very talented, but he is purely a situational player right now . Play him only when Chicago is against a team with a below average pass rush. He will put up numbers when - and only when - Cutler has time to throw from a 5 or 7 step drop without getting killed. Against any team with a decent pass rush, keep him on your bench.

 

That is why you must pick up another WR IMO.

 

Thanks for the quick reply. Sorry I left out the league information (I ninja edited in there), 12 team PPR. It's a funky league but it's a lot of fun. Rosters are somewhat tight, which usually leads to not carrying a back up QB or TE or IDP. For example, I had to drop Moore to pick up Eli as soon as I heard Rodgers had a concussion. It ensures there's some good talent on the WW every week, but makes trading away QB or TE depth hard since very few carry a back up leaving decent WW pick ups if you're ever in need. In the end, it adds a lot flexibility to your lineup and results in different owners with varying philosophies to build a successful team in a lot of different ways. Some value WR real high, some only carry one or two and vice versa. I think I like this format better than any I've ever played.

 

I agree with your analysis on Knox to an extent. I'm a Bears fan, so may have the blinders on, but Knox isn't merely a deep threat and shouldn't suffer from Jennings disease. He's coming around as a more polished WR after coming into the league last year as a very raw, but talented rookie. Cutler loves him. Martz loves him. I don't see Martz not including him into the game plan simply because they don't have time to run 5-7 step drops every down. He'll find a way to get the ball in his hands, because he's electric. Add in that my league gives Return Yardage because it's IDP, and he's very close to an every week starter (though I have benched him against NYG and Carolina already). I don't plan to bench him much going forward though, which is why I was confident in getting rid of Collie to help secure Clark.

 

I also really think Wallace will have a break out year. I was very surprised and happy to see him hit waivers last week (very odd with Ben coming back this week).

 

I think I'll take my chances on Kenny Britt to fill my roster spot. I really liked him coming out of college last year and drafted him late this year because I thought this was his year, but through various circumstances, dropped him pretty early. Maybe before the season even started. It looks like he may be coming on now and is probably worth a flyer, even though I'm not sold on VY yet.

[stonewall 647]

Kenny Britt has far more upside and is beginning to break out. He is definitely my choice in non-PPR, and I would strongly consider him even in PPR. I rostered Britt in one league last week myself.

 

Uncanny. Besides shopping for a TE to replace Finley, he has been my goal acquisition for the week.

 

I picked him up in 2 leagues today, and have a waiver request out in another. Gotta love his chances against Jags this Monday Night, and looking forward.....weeks 12-15 @Texans/Jags/Indy/Texans.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I agree Britt is a decent although not great target at this point. Good bye week filler for sure, and spot flex play. I drafted him in the FFPC and dropped him after week 1 since he was in the dog house, but always thought if he got the chance he is still the most talented WR on the Titans, and does well in the red zone. I picked him up for just $5 back in week 4 as I kept my eye on him (and lost out on Torain and Blount (thankfully on Blount)).

 

As an update on my leagues, I won both FFPC and NFFC this past week. FFPC was a squeaker! I was all-in and needed under 13 fantasy points from Adrian Peterson. He got 12 including the dropped short pass in the final minutes. Won by 1.3 points. Whew!

 

No undefeated teams in my FFPC league, but I'm near the back of the pack at 2-3. I'm tied for second in NFFC at 4-1, facing the only 5-0 team this week.

 

Got some tough start/bench decisions in FFPC this week. Right now starting:

 

Rice/Charles/HWard/SMoss/Britt/Moeaki/Hernandez which puts the following on the bench:

 

Mathews/Tolbert/Ja.Jones/MThomas/Celek

 

Thoughts MFM? Any you'd switch up there at this point?

 

Congrats on the top 12 through 5 weeks start! Keep it going!

[madd futher mucker 36]

Thanks, Mike. Your line-up looks very good to me. About the only thing I might contribute is that I've got Matthews very close to Charles this week, just in case you can play 3 RBs and maybe either Britt or Ward drop out (I have them both as a coin-flip for this week at 5-60-TD?). I think both rookie TEs are odds-on to score this weekend on about 5 receptions each. Good luck!

 

Right now I've want to get out what I believe are two special trade opportunities to those who follow this blog.

 

I've just put out trade offers in all of my leagues that allow trading - for Greg Jennings and Reggie Bush.

Greg Jennings - This one is immediate action! Jermichael Finley has told some of his teammates that he is probably done for the season. I'd expect official word at any time. At about the same time that item surfaced, the Packer offensive coaches held a meeting on scheming to get Jennings much more involved in the offense. it does not take a genius to figure out what to do here. Get in a good offer for jennings before the unsuspecting owner puts everything together. Tonight!!! Tomorrow might be to late. Quite a few owners are frustrated with him right now. I even read a post here yesterday where someone was even thinking of dropping Jennings ass on the waiver wire. Take advantage! Just make it a good enough offer that he will ACCEPT it.

 

Reggie Bush - This is a PPR special. We are going into week 6. I expect that Reggie should be back at 100% on week 8. Who cares if I am off by a week. The point is that Bush is a great RB2-3 in PPR. NOW is the time to buy low, you will NOT get him the week before he comes back. At the same time, if you have Lance Moore, now is the time to SELL HIGH! His value and production will take a huge hit in just a couple of weeks

 

When it comes to these type of situations, timing is everything!

[madd futher mucker 36]

UPDATE: One of my offers got a counter offer which I accepted: I'm getting Jennings and Garcon and giving up Malcom Floyd. There will be those who think I'm paying too much, but when you believe in the potential of both Jennings and Garcon as I do, you do it.

 

I've found that when it comes to trades like this, you've got to believe your 'story-line' and go with your instincts.

 

Comments?

[stonewall 647]

UPDATE: One of my offers got a counter offer which I accepted: I'm getting Jennings and Garcon and giving up Malcom Floyd. There will be those who think I'm paying too much, but when you believe in the potential of both Jennings and Garcon as I do, you do it.

 

I've found that when it comes to trades like this, you've got to believe your 'story-line' and go with your instincts.

 

Comments?

 

Personally, I think that getting Jennings for Floyd would have been a good deal by itself, and Garcon is just icing on the cake. Floyds #'s are gonna take a hit when VJ comes back for the fantasy stretch (in fact, Floyds emergence likely "encouraged" VJ to think again about his situation).

 

 

Although I have been burned by Jennings before, this is a good trade on paper IMO.

[Stewburtx8 67]

UPDATE: One of my offers got a counter offer which I accepted: I'm getting Jennings and Garcon and giving up Malcom Floyd. There will be those who think I'm paying too much, but when you believe in the potential of both Jennings and Garcon as I do, you do it.

 

I've found that when it comes to trades like this, you've got to believe your 'story-line' and go with your instincts.

 

Comments?

 

Often read your blog MFM and respect your thoughts and opinions.

 

The only problem I've had with Jennings, especially in PPR leagues, is that he isn't going to be a high volume target or catch guy. Even in his best season, 2008, he finished 19th in targets and 13th in receptions. Last year he was 21st in targets and 22nd in receptions. This season so far he is 33rd in targets and 50th in receptions. He's just never seemed like a true #1 WR to me. He obviously has big play ability and has put up nice TD numbers in the past, I just don't think he is very reliable. Aaron Rodgers will spread the ball around to whoever is open. With Jermichael Finley out, teams are going to be even more likely to roll coverage to Jennings. The Packers have had trouble getting him the ball because teams have been playing Cover 2 against them, and taking away Jennings as a deep threat. I don't think that is going to change much.

 

I do agree he is a buy low though because he is not the 33rd best fantasy wide receiver or whatever he is ranked right now. He is a top 20 WR at the very least, with the upside to be top 10-15. I'm just not sure if trading Malcom Floyd is really a buy low for him. I'd prefer Floyd right now, but it's obviously a calculated risk, that could pay huge dividends come playoff time if VJax rejoins the Chargers and cuts in to Floyd's number. Getting Garcon thrown in is a very nice addition with upside also.

[We Tigers 71]

UPDATE: One of my offers got a counter offer which I accepted: I'm getting Jennings and Garcon and giving up Malcom Floyd. There will be those who think I'm paying too much, but when you believe in the potential of both Jennings and Garcon as I do, you do it.

 

I've found that when it comes to trades like this, you've got to believe your 'story-line' and go with your instincts.

 

Comments?

Having followed the blog this year, I think that could be one of your best trades this season. I agree with Stewburt that there could be problems if Finley's absence hurts Jennings more, but I also think this leads to a good chance that Jennings will be getting back to some of the across-the-middle routes and slants he ran before Finley came to town. It's a good risk and one that could yield huge benefits down the line. His targets are going to have to go up almost by default. Garcon is also a very nice stash; I'm not a huge fan, but a Colts starter is a Colts starter, and 14 targets last week say that Peyton's all right airing it out to him when he has to.

 

I'm trying to solve the Finley problem myself. Giving up either Amendola or Brandon Jackson, I can have my choice of Shiancoe, Celek, or Moeaki. Moeaki looks great in the short term, and Celek's been pretty so-so but I can't imagine teams letting Vick keep beating them deep when he returns. I've grabbed Scheffler off the wire in the meantime, but I'm curious as to what you think about the TEs going forward. Who did you go after in the one league where you didn't have much behind Finley? I'd love to put together a bigger package for a better TE, but my league's already pretty trade-averse.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I appreciate the response to my TRADE OPPORTUNITY ALERT, and the trade that I ultimately pulled off last night. It is great to know that people actually read this blog and get some benefit from it. So don’t hesitate to chime in anytime with comments, questions, or discussion. Sometimes writing this blog reminds me of the Pink Floyd lyrics:

"Hello, Is there anybody out there?

Just nod if you can hear me

Is anybody home?"

So thanks for all the feedback.

 

We Tigers asked how I was going to cover my "Finley problem". The honest answer is I don’t know, but I’m not going to panic. I picked up Scheffler in one league and Quarless in another. I do have a couple of trade offers out for Heath Miller. With Big Ben back in the mix, I see no reason why Miller can’t finish as well as he did last year. Hell, I'm even looking at Mike Hoomanawanui (at least I love the name).

 

By now you know at least two of my fantasy football philosophies:

1. It does no good - and I never play just to make the play-offs, and then finish outside the money (or lose the Championship).

2. The secret to winning your league is to think and play at least one step ahead of the other owners in your league.

 

It is already week 6, which starts us into a new phase in the fantasy season. MID-season is the time for recognizing changing situations and taking the ‘long view’ - making roster moves with one eye on the play-offs - and ahead of your league competition. One of the reasons I made the trade for Jennings is because of Green Bay’s play-off schedule favors their passing game. Other teams passing games (QBs and WRs) to really target are Dallas and the Giants. Miami, KC, and San Fran are just a few teams that have nice schedules for running the ball. My advice is for you to ASSUME your team will make the play-offs and it is NEVER to early to take every opportunity to plan ahead. That means if an owner drops a kicker or a D with an excellent play-off schedule to pick up a different one to cover a bye week, scoop it up. It also means that if you have that extra roster spot and are have adequate roster coverage for your own bye weeks, scoop up guys like Vincent Jackson or Sidney Rice if they are out there on your waiver wire. One of these guys just might super-charge your team when you need it the most!

 

Don’t even be afraid to take some reasonable chances - consider giving up a few fantasy points now, in order to make yourself stronger when it really counts.

 

 

Specifically for week 6, I made no roster moves in Team 1, my 3 - 2 semi-dynasty 12 team 22 player PPR league, and I’m rolling with pretty much the same line-up as last week, just subbing Amendola in for Owens bye week (as usual, starters are bolded):

P Manning, Gradkowski, Witten, Scheffler, Z Miller, Gould, Phil

Bradshaw, S Jax, Turner, Snelling, Tolbert, C Williams, Sproles, B Scott, BJG-E, Woodhead

Owens,Gaffney, Floyd, M Thomas, Amendola

 

With my 1-4 Team 2, my ten team non-PPR deep keeper, I replaced Finley with unproven rookie Andrew Quarless. My gut tells me that he’s going to get in the end zone in his 1st game as a starter, so he’s my controversial start of the week over Brent Celek. Yes, I may still change my mind here. Now that Big Ben is back, Mike Wallace also sees my line-up. Starters are in bold:

Schaub, Eli Manning, Finley, Celek, Quarless, Rackers

P Thomas, Best, M Bush, R Williams, Tolbert

Owens, Floyd, Gaffney, Wallace, Jacoby Jones, Knox, Moore, Murphy, M Thomas, S Rice

 

In Team 3, my 3-2 Family and Friends (12 team 16 player PPR keep 7 keeper) team, I’ll finally get to dust off Big Ben, and put Sam Bradford on the bench. I’ve still got 5 trade offers out, so I don’t know who will eventually be on my roster here this week. Right now I still have Finley on my roster and no defense (See the post about roster limits - I’m trying to save a roster move by making a 2 for 2 trade which includes a defense). But for now my team is:

Big Ben, Bradford, Finley, Scheffler, Rackers, DEF

MJD, Foster, Hillis, Greene, M Bush, or F Jones

Bowe, MSW, Gaffney, L Moore, Amendola

By the way, I took a loss to my #1 son earlier this year and this week I play against my #2 son. BOTH of my boys are ahead of me in the standings in this league. I may be in the top ten in a national high stakes league, but there’s a strong chance that after this weekend, I’ll be the low dog on the fantasy football food chain in my own family. I think it says something about how competitive our family is in everything we do!

 

Team 4, my 5-0 redraft league is where I traded Floyd for Jennings and Garcon (dropping Finley). It is a 12 team 17 player PPR with a double flex for RB/WR or TE. I‘m plugging both Jennings and Garcon right into my lineup:

Eli, Z Miller, Gresham, Shiancoe, SF, Reed

Gore, Foster, Stewart, Scott, BJG-E

Fitz, Jennings, Gaffney, Garcon, Jacoby Jones, Britt

 

For Team 5, my high stakes FBG/Fantasy Football Players Chapionship team, I’ll go with basically the same starters who put up 196 points for me last week (except for the TENN D).

Romo, Young, Dal Clark, Z Miller, Dreessen, CIN, TENN, Tynes

Gore, Best, Hightower, Ch Taylor,

Harvin, Floyd, M Williams, Shipley, Edelman, Cribbs, Douglas, S Rice

I may put no waiver bids in tonight. In fact I haven’t even thought about this week’s waiver wire yet.

 

Perhaps my toughest match will be against my own son this weekend. I'm looking for a win and will be hoping that your team does the same!

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I like the trade since Floyd is the ultimate sell high right now, but I don't think Jennings will live up to expectations. Time to resign ourselves to the fact that maybe this guy isn't as good as we thought he was. Gets taken out of games too easily. Favre made him stellar in his breakout year. Still a pretty good WR but not getting into the top 2-3 tiers. Closer to a Mike Sims-Walker ... when should I start this guy? ... although admittedly with a more reliable QB.

 

I still like Garcon too, although tempered my enthusiam since the pre-season because Collie has been so good. Great offense, will get his as long as he keeps his catch % up so Manning doesn't get frustrated with him.