Projection Accuracy

[idlewild 6]

So I'm curious to know if anyone has actually tracked the weekly point projections in any of the more popular FF sites, including this one which had Lance Moore catching one pass for 2 total points and Brandon Lloyd grabbing three passes for 4 points.

 

I know it's not a science, but I wonder if you guys find any sites more accurate than others in projecting weekly points.

[johnyaya 0]

IMO, doesn't matter whether it's weather, stocks or FFB, predictions are a complete crapshoot. Especially when you get to 2nd tier guys like Lloyd and Collie.

I guess if you had looked at it objectively, you could have figured that Wayne would be covered by Bailey, but how do you pick Collie to blow up and not Dallas Clark or someone else on the Colts roster?

 

Someday, I'm gonna set up a website that tracks predictions (politicians, stocks, Mel Kiper Jr), just to show how terrible they are...

[idlewild 6]

IMO, doesn't matter whether it's weather, stocks or FFB, predictions are a complete crapshoot. Especially when you get to 2nd tier guys like Lloyd and Collie.

I guess if you had looked at it objectively, you could have figured that Wayne would be covered by Bailey, but how do you pick Collie to blow up and not Dallas Clark or someone else on the Colts roster?

 

Someday, I'm gonna set up a website that tracks predictions (politicians, stocks, Mel Kiper Jr), just to show how terrible they are...

 

I hear ya. I really like the big boards because they at least provide a bit more information on weekly matchups.

[TennisMenace 156]

I try not to read to many of those guys because it's only their opinion. Unless you don't follow football and you know nothing, then yeah, read as many as you can. But if you know what's happening, trust your instincts more than fishwrappers.

[Gepetto 988]

Just went over to si.com to read some NFL stuff. Found this: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/fantasy/09/24/start.sit/index.html

 

This guy had poor plays listed for week 3 as: Roy Williams, Mike Wallace, Lance Moore and Dustin Keller.

 

All four of those guys blew up with multiple touchdown games and plenty of yards.

 

[jsp 0]

check this out:

http://www.fantasypros.com/

 

Pretty cool site. You can get a consensus ranking from the most popular sites and it also tracks which site was most accurate.

 

I look over the rankings but tend to agree with what Tennis said above. Use your own judgment, and bounce stuff of the message boards...I get alot of insight on FF boards, using them more and more.

[p00h 85]

to this day it boggles my mind how people follow these projections and make their decisions based on them. Not only that, but people actually PAY these sites for their OPINIONS! Maybe 10 years ago when the internet wasn't as robust as today, some of these guys might have had an edge in information gathering, but today, you have basically the same set of data anyone else might have. So what makes these guys pros vs. you a rookie??? Nothing. They're not scouts that spend 60 hrs a week with teams. They scour the internet for information, and then sell it to you under the guise of a professional opinion! Just look at every year and how studs from years prior become instant duds. None of these sites project this stuff. They are basically throwing crap at a wall, and a bunch of it sticks, a bunch of it doesn't, same as if you threw the crap at the wall. Except they make a living off doing it. Amazing stuff, wish I could have got into it at an earlier stage, probably wouldn't be working my 9-5 anymore!

[jsp 0]

to this day it boggles my mind how people follow these projections and make their decisions based on them. Not only that, but people actually PAY these sites for their OPINIONS! Maybe 10 years ago when the internet wasn't as robust as today, some of these guys might have had an edge in information gathering, but today, you have basically the same set of data anyone else might have. So what makes these guys pros vs. you a rookie??? Nothing. They're not scouts that spend 60 hrs a week with teams. They scour the internet for information, and then sell it to you under the guise of a professional opinion! Just look at every year and how studs from years prior become instant duds. None of these sites project this stuff. They are basically throwing crap at a wall, and a bunch of it sticks, a bunch of it doesn't, same as if you threw the crap at the wall. Except they make a living off doing it. Amazing stuff, wish I could have got into it at an earlier stage, probably wouldn't be working my 9-5 anymore!

 

I agree with ya, but most don't have time to "scour" the internet I guess.

[idlewild 6]

check this out:

http://www.fantasypros.com/

 

Pretty cool site. You can get a consensus ranking from the most popular sites and it also tracks which site was most accurate.

 

I look over the rankings but tend to agree with what Tennis said above. Use your own judgment, and bounce stuff of the message boards...I get alot of insight on FF boards, using them more and more.

 

Beauty! This is exactly what I was looking for here. Again, I know it's not exact and past performance does not guarantee future results, but it is definitely an indication.

 

Here's the SPECIFIC ACCURACY RATINGS. It's interesting that certain sites are stronger in specific positions. For example, I might take a look at Lesters Legends if I wanted to chose between two TEs on a particular week.

 

Thanks for the help.

[khk08 0]

Beauty! This is exactly what I was looking for here. Again, I know it's not exact and past performance does not guarantee future results, but it is definitely an indication.

 

Here's the SPECIFIC ACCURACY RATINGS. It's interesting that certain sites are stronger in specific positions. For example, I might take a look at Lesters Legends if I wanted to chose between two TEs on a particular week.

 

Thanks for the help.

 

Love this site too. It's NOT that I blindly follow any one of these experts, it's just great to be able to kill off half my reading list - I avoid wasting my time reading the "insights" from the bottom half of these "experts." I also like their search tools that let you see the range of rankings for a particular player or start/sit decision.

 

Looks like they updated their accuracy leaderboard through the first 6 weeks.

[Thornton Melon 544]

33 Mike Krueger - FFToday

 

...out of 36

[Mike MacGregor 20]

The rankings are somewhat flawed. I know some (maybe most - not sure) project partial TDs to players. Example: Chris Johnson - 100 yards, 0.5 TD. If he gets zero or one then the projector is half right either way. What is half a TD though? I understand about probabilities but if we are really projecting the numbers to be a realistic reflection about what could happen in a game, then this % of a TD business is garbage IMHO. In case you didn't know, FF Today projects whole numbers. Week 7 projections:

 

http://www.fftoday.com/rankings/playerwkrank.php?GameWeek=7