an extremely thorough study of Cam Newton, QB

[madd futher mucker 36]

This piece is a "must read" for dynasty owners, if only because of the exhaustive research from extremely competent draftnics/beat writers. I have read, listened to, and have come to respect the work of Dave Hyde, beat writer for the Miami Sun-Sentinal.

 

He recently featured and edited an incredible piece of work by Chris Kouffman and Simon Clancy of UniversalDraft.com about Cam Newton's draft and pro prospects.

 

Enjoy:

 

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2011/02/draft_winds_a_thorough_breakdo_1.html

 

Most of you know that my philosophy is to draft WRS and RBs and trade for QBs and TEs. I place more emphasis for dynasty purposes on studying WRs and RBs than I do with QBs and TEs.

 

That said, I did in fact draft Josh Freeman his rookie year in round 3 of my rookie draft for my dynasty league. I'm not saying that this article will cause me to change my philosophy at all, but it did cause me to re-evaluate my opinions about Cam Newton.

[worm 36]

Started reading this on my phone before I realized how long it was. Definitely looks interesting though, I'll have to pick up where I left off later tonight.

[pimptastic69 0]

That workout video of his was sick. Depending on what happens with Carson Palmer's situation, I'd imagine the Bungles will take a hard look at Newton. So far, I've liked everything I've seen. That QB "guru" from San Diego absolutely raves about Newton.

 

If Jay Gruden can transfer his electric offenses to the NFL, Newton could do some good things with the Bungles.

[The Moz 69]

Andrew uck he is not -- but he is better than any QB in the draft!

 

Huge arm , decent accuracy , and a great runner - with Tebow like power. Only knock is character concerns.

 

I would take his teamate fairley first overall then I would have tough time passing on Newton if I needed a QB

[madd futher mucker 36]

Many in the scouting community have said that Cam Newton tries to project a new maturity but believe that it is all an act - that he is see a selfish, me first player. Today's interviews sure re-inforced that idea. Some of Cam's quotes today:

 

"I see myself not only as a football player, but an entertainer and icon."

 

"Not to sound arrogant but what I did in 1 year others couldn't do in their entire collegiate careers."

 

Sorry, Cam, but you do come off as arrogant and immature. I'm starting to see Newton for what I believe he is: a tremendously talented but high risk pick who just might turn into a "coach killer".

 

I never cared much for drafting QBs in dynasty unless you can get reasonable to high upside late. My favorite QBs this year are Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, and followed by Florida State's Chris Ponder. Either or both of these guys can probably be drafted in rounds 3 or 4 of your rookie dynasty draft. I believe that you may have to wait a year or three, but that these two guys will probably outperform the "big four" of Newton, Gabbert, Locker and Mallett over the long haul.

 

Kaepernick has the natural arm and the atletecism to perform at the same elite talent level as any of the "1st round" guys. In addition, he is a proven winner with a great work ethic and intangibles. But he will need to work on all his mechanics of drop-back play from under center. If he goes to a good situation where he can spend at least a year holding the clipboard, I love his chances of becoming a "franchise" NFL QB.

 

Ponder has battled injuries in his collegiate career, but he has shown tremendous leadership and mental toughness. Compared to the "big 4", he lacks the cannon arm, but hes got enough arm to make all the throws at the next level, and the ability to rapidly process what he sees on the field and make good decisions with the ball.

 

I've always believed in what I've heard are Parcells' four rules for drafting a QB - If you can hit three of the four, I think you can significantly increase the odds of drafting a 'Franchise QB":

1. He must be a senior, because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback.

2. He must be a graduate, because you want someone who takes his responsibilities seriously.

3. He must be a three-year starter, because you need to make sure his success wasnt ephemeral and that he has lived as the guy for some period of time.

4. He must have at least 23 wins, because the big passing numbers must come in the context of winning games.

BTW: Of the seven quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the 2000s, five -- Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Trent Dilfer -- met all four requirements when drafted.

 

Personally I see the best risk/reward ratio in this year's QB class resides in these two Seniors, both of whom I believe have met all 4 criteria.

[420allstars 13]

Great read, just killed half my afternoon at work...glad I found this forum !!

[jocstrap 8]

Great read, just killed half my afternoon at work...glad I found this forum !!

 

 

Welcome aboard

 

Go to the Geek Bored if you want to kill the other 1/2 of your afternoon! It's almost 4:20 time

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Good stuff Futher Mucker. As a fan of a team that picks late it's good to see somebody so high on Kaepernick and Ponder.

[berven 0]

Brian Billick commented that he has "serious concerns" about Newton. He noted that Cam has a lot to learn, and that his ability to read defenses and to operate from under center are unknowns. While he has no problem with self-confidence or even confidence, he questions Newton's ability to humble himself and be a student long enough to be a master.

 

I agree with Billick. Newton is too smitten with himself given his brief college experience as a starter. I think he'll be a pain to whomever drafts him, as he'll have trouble toiling in anonymity while he learns. I predict he'll continue to make statements to the press that call for later apologies and clearifications.

 

Newton is a gifted athlete, so I hope I'm wrong. However, it wouldn't surprise me if some teams agree, and that he falls further down the draft board than most expect. I know that teams with early selections have enthused about him, but this is the time of year when you can't trust what NFL teams say.

[giraldi02 474]

Cam newtons attitude aside, I question why anyone would spend such a high pick on a shotgun offense quarterback so soon after the failure of Alex smith. It takes a real special quarterback as is to be a franchise player, let alone one who is going to have to change much of what got him into this position in the first place. Cam Newton seems to be approaching this process as if the transition is going to be effortless.

 

Cam Newton will never amount to anything special in the NFL. He will be a severe bust.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Cam newtons attitude aside, I question why anyone would spend such a high pick on a shotgun offense quarterback so soon after the failure of Alex smith. It takes a real special quarterback as is to be a franchise player, let alone one who is going to have to change much of what got him into this position in the first place. Cam Newton seems to be approaching this process as if the transition is going to be effortless.

 

Cam Newton will never amount to anything special in the NFL. He will be a severe bust.

 

Statements like these make absolutely no sense on several levels.

 

First, as the study/article itself demonstrates, the NFL itself has gone more and more to the spread offense. And regardless of any specific example you make (such as Alex Smith), there have been college spread offense QBs who have made the transition to the NFL, just as there are "pro-style" college QBs (like Brady Quinn) who have busted in the NFL.

 

And after years of closely following NFL draft prospects, one thing I've learned with absolute certainty, is that you can never say with ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY whether a prospect will either be a stud or a complete bust - UNTIL HE PLAYS AT THAT LEVEL.

 

While people have questioned his maturity and his ego, I have never heard anything negative about his football work ethic. So I truly believe that there is a very reasonable chance that Cam Newton will develop into an NFL "franchise QB". And there is also a chance that he will bust. Or (and in his case, probably less likely given his immense talent) it could be somewhere in between. But one thing that I DO KNOW however, is that no one - not Mayock, nor any NFL GM or scout, and surely not you or me knows which it will be with any degree of certainty.

 

My only point in making an argument for the two senior QBs above is that from a risk/reward fantasy football dynasty perspective, drafting one of those guys in round 3 or 4 of a rookie draft seems to make more sense than drafting Cam Newton - or any of the other top 3 prospects - in the first round.

[giraldi02 474]

My main and primary knock against Newton is his attitude and the way he conducts himself. He does not appear poised and ready for the rigors an NFL quarterback must face OUTSIDE of the hash marks. I don't care about his athletic ability. Plenty of college quarterbacks have it.

 

Maybe I'm wrong about him being a bust. Maybe not. Truely no one has a definite answer or they'd be running the scouting department for an NFL team. He reminds me of vince young mixed with Jamarcus Russell. A ton of athletic ability and a good-great arm.

 

But that isn't enough in the pro game. He's got to be an ambassador for his team and for the game. Can he lead people and assume the full responsibility of a team week in and week out? Can he handle the amount of work it takes for film study and practice. How does he handle a veteran like Steve smith when he's screaming for the ball down by 14 to the saints. If he has outside problems that have frequented his life, the media questions are going to be directed solely to him. Not his coach, not an A.D., not his dad. I don't believe he is of the maturity to knock himself down a peg or two. He's a confident kid for sure...bordering on over-the-top cockiness.

 

I don't hate Cam Newton because its seemingly popular as of late. I just honestly do not believe he is an NFL franchise quarterback. Only time will tell though.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

I think the whole "entertainer" comment is being blown wayyyy out of proportion.

 

Everything I've read about Newton says he's a hard worker and a leader. He comes off as very intelligent in his interviews. There is nothing wrong with his release and he already throws an accurate deep ball with poor foot work (which is easily correctable). I also find it interesting that he was considered a pure pocket passer coming out of HS, and that the % of plays he ran the ball were almost equal to Aaron Rodgers this season.

 

Every knock against him stems from him stealing a laptop at age 19, his dad (who as this article states cannot be worse than any agent), and the "entertainer and icon" comments. Im also not worried about his experience. If Mark Sanchez can get drafted with the 5th pick and not fall flat on his face, then a player like Newton with far more talent who by all accounts works and studies his ass off should be just fine. Also, Newton is probably smart enough to keep his wick out of underage girls.

 

Carolina should draft him.

[IGotWorms 4,057]

Newton has great physical tools but obviously has some work to do to become an elite QB at the next level. My concern with him is his attitude. Given the way he apparently views himself, I'm not so sure he is going to be willing to put in the long hours of work and film study to learn how to beome that elite QB. He doesn't seem very "teachable". I would pass on him, but you know some team in the top 10 is probably going to talk themselves into drafting him. Maybe he'll work out, but I think there are too many red flags.

 

Koepernick is my personal favorite of this year's QBs. If I were a team like Arizona I would draft a stud like Von Miller or Robert Quinn with my first pick and then pick up Koepernick in the second round. You might have to leapfrog a few other QB-hungry teams to make sure you get him, but I'm sure the Patriots are willing to talk about their 28th overall or 33rd overall picks.

[Gepetto 1,361]

I don't think Cam has an attitude problem at all. I think he's going to be a very good NFL QB. I look forward to seeing him play (and entertain, hehe) at the next level.

[Boston Three Party 6]

I don't think Cam has an attitude problem at all. I think he's going to be a very good NFL QB. I look forward to seeing him play (and entertain, hehe) at the next level.

 

Yeah but I also see a little vince young Jr in him....he did look great today.

 

I really like the tcu kid too. Good arm.

[jocstrap 8]

Newton has great physical tools but obviously has some work to do to become an elite QB at the next level. My concern with him is his attitude. Given the way he apparently views himself, I'm not so sure he is going to be willing to put in the long hours of work and film study to learn how to beome that elite QB. He doesn't seem very "teachable". I would pass on him, but you know some team in the top 10 is probably going to talk themselves into drafting him. Maybe he'll work out, but I think there are too many red flags.

 

 

 

He couldn't make it in D1 for a reason at Florida. Junior College here I come b/c I'm such a great student...

 

I keep hearing/reading where so many coaches were turned off by his dumbazz comments "I'm and entertainer, I'm and Icon". Then I heard a great radio conversation putting all that blame on his current management. They should've coached him much better for times in front of the press. Obviously they didn't. So - Newton spits out the worst comments he probably could have.

 

People keep whispering Vince Young also. Vince Young has done nothing but win games in the NFL - he and Jeff Fisher just didn't/couldn't connect. Fisher has his reasons, but maybe it was his time to go, and his philosophy's were outdated. All I know, is that VY continued to move the chains for a first down. He made some really good passes also. When VY made a bad pass/interception, he was the first to pat himself on the chest running off the field, saying my bad.

 

Back to the point - can Cam Newton take a shity football team and help them move the chains better than their current QB? I say hell ya. Will he win you an NFL title? TBD. I'm going to give him a chance.

[JT 137]

He couldn't make it in D1 for a reason at Florida. Junior College here I come b/c I'm such a great student...

 

I keep hearing/reading where so many coaches were turned off by his dumbazz comments "I'm and entertainer, I'm and Icon". Then I heard a great radio conversation putting all that blame on his current management. They should've coached him much better for times in front of the press. Obviously they didn't. So - Newton spits out the worst comments he probably could have.

 

 

Who was involved in the radio conversation?

[jocstrap 8]

Who was involved in the radio conversation?

 

 

It was either the round table or the Thom Abraham show? Not sure which one, but they brought up a pretty valid point I thought

 

Newton didn't have much exposure to the press while he was at Auburn either. Should he have been coached better by his agent on the types of questions he was going to receive? Or maybe he was coached, and he still sounded like a moron. I don't know the inside scoop.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

The Vince Young comparisons crack me up. You can go out and find local high school QB's who are harder workers and better leaders then the Texas Tard.

 

I'm sure Newton will only need one shot at the wonderlic too.