Albert Pujols for Ryan Howard trade?

[kilroy69 1,039]

If the phillies got albert pujols to go along with their pitching staff the rest of baseball might as well just mail in their season for the next 3-4 years. I like to put my favorite program(fock you I like stats, it what makes me good at fantasy sports.) into play when Projecting what a trade would do for the value of a player based solely on where their Balls in play(hehe he said balls) would have ended up as home runs. Hits are too random but distance is the same no matter where it is, just the dimensions of the park and what that persons swing will do there change.

 

That being said.

 

If Albert got traded to the phils and got to play his home games at Citizens Bank park based on distance alone here is what it would look like.

 

He would have had 10 doubles, 1 single 8 fly outs and a lineout turn into home runs. 19 MORE home runs added to the other 17 home runs he also would have hit......just at home. He has played his entire career where home runs had to be crushed to get out and would be moving to a park where he could mash home runs like ruth with the flick of his wrist. Around 58 per year with a 3 year overlay of his stats.

 

 

Howard on the other hand would fall off the focking map. While Albert would end up an average of +17 homers over 3 years based on the same formula Howards numbers are the exact opposite. People don't realize just how friendly Citizens Bank park has been to Howard. In 2008 he would have given up a massive -16 home runs, in 2009 he got "better" with a -9 homers but then last year bumped it back up to -14. These are for the most part all balls that any capable fielder would get to for easy outs to not only take away home runs but also to lower his average.

 

A move like this would make Howard very overpaid and would make Albert worth whatever number the phils are gonna throw at him.

[Stewburtx8 67]

I'm a huge Phillies fan, but this is a just a pipe dream made up by WIP and their callers.

 

Ryan Howard is already waaaay overapid. The Cardinals would rather let Albert Pujols walk than take on Ryan Howard's ridiculous contract for the next 6-7 years. Everything is trending in the wrong direction for Howard. But Ryan Howard has NOT benefited much from Citizen's Bank Park. His home/road home run splits look like this:

 

Home

 

2006- 29

2007- 23

2008- 26

2009- 18

2010- 15

 

Away

 

2006- 29

2007- 24

2008- 22

2009- 27

2010- 16

 

He's actually hit more home runs on the road over the last 5 years than he has at Citizens Bank Park. I'm hoping he has a few more good seasons in him, but his ISO power, OBP, and many other key components are all going in the wrong direction.

[pingpong 0]

The money Pujols will be overpaid in the last 4 years of his upcoming monster deal will dwarf the amount that Howard is overpaid.

[Mike Honcho 4,191]

If the phillies got albert pujols to go along with their pitching staff the rest of baseball might as well just mail in their season for the next 3-4 years. I like to put my favorite program(fock you I like stats, it what makes me good at fantasy sports.) into play when Projecting what a trade would do for the value of a player based solely on where their Balls in play(hehe he said balls) would have ended up as home runs. Hits are too random but distance is the same no matter where it is, just the dimensions of the park and what that persons swing will do there change.

 

That being said.

 

If Albert got traded to the phils and got to play his home games at Citizens Bank park based on distance alone here is what it would look like.

 

He would have had 10 doubles, 1 single 8 fly outs and a lineout turn into home runs. 19 MORE home runs added to the other 17 home runs he also would have hit......just at home. He has played his entire career where home runs had to be crushed to get out and would be moving to a park where he could mash home runs like ruth with the flick of his wrist. Around 58 per year with a 3 year overlay of his stats.

 

 

Howard on the other hand would fall off the focking map. While Albert would end up an average of +17 homers over 3 years based on the same formula Howards numbers are the exact opposite. People don't realize just how friendly Citizens Bank park has been to Howard. In 2008 he would have given up a massive -16 home runs, in 2009 he got "better" with a -9 homers but then last year bumped it back up to -14. These are for the most part all balls that any capable fielder would get to for easy outs to not only take away home runs but also to lower his average.

 

A move like this would make Howard very overpaid and would make Albert worth whatever number the phils are gonna throw at him.

 

How many homeruns would Pujols have if he played his games at Wrigley?

 

ETA: Not a Cub fan, just curious.

[Mungwater 589]

How many homeruns would Pujols have if he played his games at Wrigley?

 

ETA: Not a Cub fan, just curious.

 

I would love to have him in Wrigley.. We did only sign Carlos Pena for one year

[NewbieJr 541]

The Phillies would be crazy to do this. Howard has a chubbyish, natural physique. He will be the same player for the next 7-8 years. Pujols is juiced up and it's just a matter of time before he gets nailed for it. Then he'll clean up and produce Jeff Bagwell/Jason Giambi post-steroid type numbers.

 

Stay with the natural guy. His numbers aren't that far off of Pujols anyway.

[Mike Honcho 4,191]

I would love to have him in Wrigley.. We did only sign Carlos Pena for one year

 

 

As part of the perpentually disappointed fans of the team 60 miles north on I94...I live in fear of Albert playing at Wrigley.

[Mungwater 589]

As part of the perpentually disappointed fans of the team 60 miles north on I94...I live in fear of Albert playing at Wrigley.

 

Jim Hendry does give some pretty bad deals longevity-wise. They have a lot of money coming off the books next year: Bradley, Kosuke, Pena.. They could afford it.

[kilroy69 1,039]

How many homeruns would Pujols have if he played his games at Wrigley?

 

ETA: Not a Cub fan, just curious.

 

Lets put it this way. If the cubs signed albert and I lived in one of those houses behind the fences......I would up my insurance policy. Its not so much the fact he would have THHHATTTT many more. But the ones he hit for home runs would be landing in someones dinner.

 

 

 

 

He would end up with +14 home runs if he played with the Cubs. If he moved to the Angels he would end up with a +22 and the Redsox a +28.

 

 

 

 

He's actually hit more home runs on the road over the last 5 years than he has at Citizens Bank Park. I'm hoping he has a few more good seasons in him, but his ISO power, OBP, and many other key components are all going in the wrong direction.

 

The fact is based on numbers alone almost ALL of his home park home runs would be eaten up if he moved parks. So he has benefited from playing in Citizens Bank Park compared to some of the bigger parks of which Bush Stadium is one. In petco he would have 4 homers, in Comerica he would have 3 at home.

[pimptastic69 0]

Stay with the natural guy. His numbers aren't that far off of Pujols anyway.

 

His name is Votto, and he doesn't get blotto.

 

Good luck with your overpriced first basemen.

 

[NewbieJr 541]

His name is Votto, and he doesn't get blotto.

 

Good luck with your overpriced first basemen.

 

Good luck keeping yours when his contract is up.

[kilroy69 1,039]

His name is Votto, and he doesn't get blotto.

 

Good luck with your overpriced first basemen.

 

Ill take miggy over any of your firt basemen with the exception of Pujoles himself. Even with his apparent drinking problems.

[MDC 6,013]

As a Phils fan I'd do this deal in a heartbeat.

 

The Phils' core hitting lineup is aging in dog years. Pujols is right now a better overall player and gives you a better chance to win this season. If the Phils can't win this year, you let Pujols contract expire (along with Ibanez) and start to rebuild.

 

Maybe this sounds like panic, but Utley and Rollins can't stay healthy anymore and they've both been getting worse every year. Howard drives in a ton of runs but he vanishes in the postseason. The lineup is explosive. It's also one of the worst small ball and situational hitting teams I've seen.

 

I am worried the window is closing on this team and the dearth of prospects in the organization scares me. It may be time to start looking beyond guys like Rollins, Utley, and Howard.

 

[pimptastic69 0]

Good luck keeping yours when his contract is up.

 

I don't think the Reds have any intention on keeping him after his contract is up. He'll be overpriced just like Howard and Pujols are now.

[Stewburtx8 67]

 

 

The fact is based on numbers alone almost ALL of his home park home runs would be eaten up if he moved parks. So he has benefited from playing in Citizens Bank Park compared to some of the bigger parks of which Bush Stadium is one. In petco he would have 4 homers, in Comerica he would have 3 at home.

 

 

I don't think you can possibly determine whether a ball would be a home run or not based on distance alone. Trajectory is important depending on the park design and height of the walls. Also, I am not sure how accurate the distance figures are. While technolgy has got much more advanced and accurate, these figures are still an estimate. Interesting site, but it just seems like it is inflating the numbers way too much. I have to believe Ryan Howard would of hit more than 3 home runs in Comerica last year.

 

The fact that Howard has hit more home runs on the road than Citizens Bank Park leads me to believe he isn't being aided a ton by CNB. Citizens Bank Park only ranked 10th in baseball last year in park factor. While it is a hitter's park, it's not aiding a ton of Howard's home runs in my opinion. Obviously he would hit a few less in a pitcher's park like Petco or Busch Stadium. But I watch A LOT of Phillies games, and I haven't seen too many balls that Howard hits that barely clear the wall.

[Stewburtx8 67]

As a Phils fan I'd do this deal in a heartbeat.

 

The Phils' core hitting lineup is aging in dog years. Pujols is right now a better overall player and gives you a better chance to win this season. If the Phils can't win this year, you let Pujols contract expire (along with Ibanez) and start to rebuild.

 

Maybe this sounds like panic, but Utley and Rollins can't stay healthy anymore and they've both been getting worse every year. Howard drives in a ton of runs but he vanishes in the postseason. The lineup is explosive. It's also one of the worst small ball and situational hitting teams I've seen.

 

I am worried the window is closing on this team and the dearth of prospects in the organization scares me. It may be time to start looking beyond guys like Rollins, Utley, and Howard.

 

 

 

The Cardinals aren't trading Pujols for Howard. This was a pipedream created by WIP and some of it's callers. Agree with a lot of what you said about Rollins and Utley and THIS core team's window of opportunity.

 

But the Phillies farm system is arguably one of the top 5 in baseball. Their Low A Ball team in Lakewood is absolutely loaded.

[kilroy69 1,039]

I don't think you can possibly determine whether a ball would be a home run or not based on distance alone. Trajectory is important depending on the park design and height of the walls. Also, I am not sure how accurate the distance figures are. While technolgy has got much more advanced and accurate, these figures are still an estimate. Interesting site, but it just seems like it is inflating the numbers way too much. I have to believe Ryan Howard would of hit more than 3 home runs in Comerica last year.

I disagree with you on that, with the exception of Fenway most fences are of normal height that would allow for you to be able to accurately forecast where doubles, fly outs triples and in rare cases singles would have turned into homers based simply where the balls land. I don't think trajectory would have as much to do with it as you might chink because they account for his lineouts. The flyouts,triples and doubles are lofts that would clear the fence.

 

Comerica is a focking cavern. By comparison if Miggy played at CBP his home run total would have been a +22 on top of the 17 he hit at home.

 

It also shows that V-Mart is going to struggle at home this year to the tune of 2 home runs.

 

The fact that Howard has hit more home runs on the road than Citizens Bank Park leads me to believe he isn't being aided a ton by CNB. Citizens Bank Park only ranked 10th in baseball last year in park factor. While it is a hitter's park, it's not aiding a ton of Howard's home runs in my opinion. Obviously he would hit a few less in a pitcher's park like Petco or Busch Stadium. But I watch A LOT of Phillies games, and I haven't seen too many balls that Howard hits that barely clear the wall.

I understand what you are saying but I compare him to Jason Bay. He is someone that was in a park suited for his swing...moved to a cavern and produced like ######. Im not saying Howard is bad by any stretch but if he moved to Alberts home park he would struggle to justify his salary as his home run total and average sank.

[Big Blue 06 195]

I could swear I heard this rumor months ago. I actually thought this was an old thread that got bumped. At any rate, I would definitely do this and the deal makes sense for both teams if St. Louis won't be able to afford to keep Pujols.

[Stewburtx8 67]

I disagree with you on that, with the exception of Fenway most fences are of normal height that would allow for you to be able to accurately forecast where doubles, fly outs triples and in rare cases singles would have turned into homers based simply where the balls land. I don't think trajectory would have as much to do with it as you might chink because they account for his lineouts. The flyouts,triples and doubles are lofts that would clear the fence.

 

Comerica is a focking cavern. By comparison if Miggy played at CBP his home run total would have been a +22 on top of the 17 he hit at home.

 

It also shows that V-Mart is going to struggle at home this year to the tune of 2 home runs.

 

 

I understand what you are saying but I compare him to Jason Bay. He is someone that was in a park suited for his swing...moved to a cavern and produced like ######. Im not saying Howard is bad by any stretch but if he moved to Alberts home park he would struggle to justify his salary as his home run total and average sank.

 

 

We will have to agree to disagree that the ballpark effects home run totals by THAT much. Comerica was a cavern when it was first built. But for the last 7-8 years since they moved in the fences in left center, it has been a pretty neutral ballpark. In 2010, Citizens Bank Park was 10th in park factor for home runs, Comerica was 18th. In 2009, Citizens Bank Park was 16th in park factor for home runs, Comerica was 18th. In 2008, Comerica was 6th in park factor for home runs, Citizens Bank Park was 11th. I just can't believe the numbers can say one thing, but this site is saying Miguel Cabrera would hit 22 more home runs at Citizens Bank Park. Seems way too high.

 

Ryan Howard also had his worst year of his career in terms of power last year. From 2006-2009, he led the majors in isolated power. Last year he wasn't in the top 20. We do agree he is very much on the decline. I like Ryan Howard a lot, but I'd be suprised if he lives up to his contract for even the next year or two. Let's hope he does though.

[pimptastic69 0]

Yikes!!! Holy dorkfest Batman.

 

Whatever happened to RBI, avg, and HR's?

 

What the fock is a "park factor"?

[kilroy69 1,039]

Yikes!!! Holy dorkfest Batman.

 

Whatever happened to RBI, avg, and HR's?

 

What the fock is a "park factor"?

Park factor only comes into play when you have players moving or possibly moving to a new park. You have players like Adam Dunn, Adrian Gonzelez and in this case Poopholes moving from parks that hold their doubles to ones where their doubles and especially their flyouts would turn into home runs(in my opinion of course.)

[pimptastic69 0]

Park factor only comes into play when you have players moving or possibly moving to a new park. You have players like Adam Dunn, Adrian Gonzelez and in this case Poopholes moving from parks that hold their doubles to ones where their doubles and especially their flyouts would turn into home runs(in my opinion of course.)

 

Is this for fantasy, or a real live stat?

[kilroy69 1,039]

Is this for fantasy, or a real live stat?

Oh no Im not making it up. Its real life stats. It overlays hits, groundouts, flyouts, homeruns, doubles and triples from a players home park on any park you want. I am using it for fantasy purposes though to target the players I chink are going to hit close to 50 because of the move to their new park. Adam Dunn should reach 50 based on his move to U.S. Cell and Adrian Gonzalez should mash with the sox at Fenway. No one believes me but I see Gonzalez going for 55-60 this year.

[pimptastic69 0]

Oh no Im not making it up. Its real life stats. It overlays hits, groundouts, flyouts, homeruns, doubles and triples from a players home park on any park you want. I am using it for fantasy purposes though to target the players I chink are going to hit close to 50 because of the move to their new park. Adam Dunn should reach 50 based on his move to U.S. Cell and Adrian Gonzalez should mash with the sox at Fenway. No one believes me but I see Gonzalez going for 55-60 this year.

 

Ugghh....I've already rooned my taste for one sport with too many fantasy stats, I'm not about to do it to my favorite.

 

My neighbor is in some fantasy league where he drafts Single A minor league players, and to me, that's just nuts.

 

[kilroy69 1,039]

Ugghh....I've already rooned my taste for one sport with too many fantasy stats, I'm not about to do it to my favorite.

 

My neighbor is in some fantasy league where he drafts Single A minor league players, and to me, that's just nuts.

 

Haha fantasy baseball is what got me into fantasy football. It keeps me more involved in my already favorite sport anyway. Now I just know more about whats going on with more teams/players than tigers.

[MDC 6,013]

The Cardinals aren't trading Pujols for Howard. This was a pipedream created by WIP and some of it's callers.

 

No doubt. This rumor was floating around about a year ago and I didn't pay much attention then. The only thing that makes it even slightly realistic is the fact that Pujols' contract is up at the end of the season and the Cards probably won't resign him. I can't say why they'd want Howard to replace him, though.

 

Agree with a lot of what you said about Rollins and Utley and THIS core team's window of opportunity.

 

But the Phillies farm system is arguably one of the top 5 in baseball. Their Low A Ball team in Lakewood is absolutely loaded.

 

I don't know much about the Phils' A ball team, but it's been a while since they've developed a position prospect: Utley / Howard in 03/04, and both spent more time in the minors than they needed. Since then, the only farm talent who's an everyday player is Carlos Ruiz. He's one of my favorite players on the team, but c'mon.

 

Otherwise, has any other above average player come out of the system? Hamels and Madsen. Am I missing someone? The top prospect was supposed to be Dominic Brown but he sucked it up all offseason and now he's hurt. Mayberry Jr. might be their best young player who will get significant ABs this year.

 

If the team doesn't win a World Series this year, I really do think it's time to move some core pieces (Rollins, Utley, Howard) and start thinking about the future. That's all I'm saying. I don't have a ton of faith in the A ball prospects because the Phils keep dealing minor league talent for pitchers and they haven't developed anyone in almost 10 years.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Yikes!!! Holy dorkfest Batman.

 

Whatever happened to RBI, avg, and HR's?

 

What the fock is a "park factor"?

 

 

Ha. I felt this way up until about 2 or 3 years ago, then I finally felt like I needed to get on board with the sabermetic statistics that baseball has become. It does help a lot in evaluating players for fantasy baseball too. Bill James and sabermetrics have totally redefined baseball statistics, to the point that RBI's, runs scored, Wins, and batting average are fairly meaningless in the grand scheme of things. I know it's tough to believe that if you have an "old school" baseball mindset.

 

Park factor is simply a statistic to try to assess how much a specific ballpark contributes to the offensive production of a team or player.

[Stewburtx8 67]

 

I don't know much about the Phils' A ball team, but it's been a while since they've developed a position prospect: Utley / Howard in 03/04, and both spent more time in the minors than they needed. Since then, the only farm talent who's an everyday player is Carlos Ruiz. He's one of my favorite players on the team, but c'mon.

 

Otherwise, has any other above average player come out of the system? Hamels and Madsen. Am I missing someone? The top prospect was supposed to be Dominic Brown but he sucked it up all offseason and now he's hurt. Mayberry Jr. might be their best young player who will get significant ABs this year.

 

If the team doesn't win a World Series this year, I really do think it's time to move some core pieces (Rollins, Utley, Howard) and start thinking about the future. That's all I'm saying. I don't have a ton of faith in the A ball prospects because the Phils keep dealing minor league talent for pitchers and they haven't developed anyone in almost 10 years.

 

This is true. But you have to remember that they've traded a majority of their top prospects over the last 2-3 years to acquire Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt. So it doesn't suprise me that they haven't developed a position prospect in awhile. They liked their core team, and used their prospects to take a win now approach. I can't fault them for that. But as you said, that "core" is aging quickly. Utley has me really concerned right now, he may never be the same player again. I wouldn't give up on Domonic Brown yet though. He's only 23, but he needs to recognize offspeed pitches much better.

 

As for their low A ball team last year, they do have a lot of promising young prospects. Jonathan Singleton is their best position prospect. He is 1B, but they are attempting to play him in LF. He has one of the best bats in the minors right now. They also have several high end pitching prospects in Jarred Cosart, Brady Colvin, Trevor May, Jesse Biddle. Sebastian Valle is one of the better catching prospects out there. So the cupboard is not bare, it's just many of these guys are still at least 2-3 years away from possibly making a major league contribution. Let's hope our current core can continue to win until then.

[MDC 6,013]

This is true. But you have to remember that they've traded a majority of their top prospects over the last 2-3 years to acquire Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt. So it doesn't suprise me that they haven't developed a position prospect in awhile. They liked their core team, and used their prospects to take a win now approach. I can't fault them for that. But as you said, that "core" is aging quickly. Utley has me really concerned right now, he may never be the same player again. I wouldn't give up on Domonic Brown yet though. He's only 23, but he needs to recognize offspeed pitches much better.

 

As for their low A ball team last year, they do have a lot of promising young prospects. Jonathan Singleton is their best position prospect. He is 1B, but they are attempting to play him in LF. He has one of the best bats in the minors right now. They also have several high end pitching prospects in Jarred Cosart, Brady Colvin, Trevor May, Jesse Biddle. Sebastian Valle is one of the better catching prospects out there. So the cupboard is not bare, it's just many of these guys are still at least 2-3 years away from possibly making a major league contribution. Let's hope our current core can continue to win until then.

 

I like your optimism and I think we're more or less in agreement. I also can't fault the Phils for a "win now" approach either. I'm just saying, if the team doesn't win a World Series this year I'd prefer it if they made some major changes to the everyday lineup instead of riding this core out.