Stevan Ridley Value

[TexansWinSB 0]

I have Ridley on my bench and I'm looking to either upgrade or build depth for my WR now. So to properly offer trades I was hoping to get peoples' opinions of Ridley's value.

 

• What round would he go in if the draft were today?
  
• What caliber receiver would he compare to, straight up?
  

[TD Ryan2 314]

What round would he go in if the draft were today?

probably a 2nd rounder in a standard 12 team league. He's still a bit new and some are hesitant that he'll excel for a full season.

 

What caliber receiver would he compare to, straight up?

again, probably a second round WR.

 

You are unlikely to get Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, or even Percy Harvin.

 

you could maybe get Fitz, Roddy White, Mike Wallace, Miles Austin, Colston, Garcon

 

you probably could get but maybe don't want Welker, Jennings, Cruz, Lloyd

 

 

Here's the challenge with trading Ridley right now:

it is unlikely that someone will give you an Andre Johnson or Brandon Marshal for him and that's probably what you're looking for in return.

You've got to find a highly ranked WR that owners are sour on or a WR that had a big first week and owners think it's a fluke and will, "sell high" on.

And the key there is that either you aren't soured yet OR you don't think it's a fluke.

 

so when asking "who you can get for Ridley" it all depends on who you like and how deep/needy your trading partner is.

If your trading partner has Calvin with Julio, and a Percy Harvin or Demaryius Thomas, then it's a good bet you can get Harvin or Thomas and maybe even push for Julio.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Desean Jackson, Reggie Wayne, Torrey Smith, Cruz (due to overreaction), Mike Wallace, Austin, Stevie Johnson, Colston. I'd hold and hope for another big game.

[DexterMorgan 5]

Desean Jackson, Reggie Wayne, Torrey Smith, Cruz (due to overreaction), Mike Wallace, Austin, Stevie Johnson, Colston. I'd hold and hope for another big game.

 

Yup, I'd only trade him for cruz out of that bunch.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

What round would he go in if the draft were today?

probably a 2nd rounder in a standard 12 team league. He's still a bit new and some are hesitant that he'll excel for a full season.

 

What caliber receiver would he compare to, straight up?

again, probably a second round WR.

 

You are unlikely to get Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, or even Percy Harvin.

 

you could maybe get Fitz, Roddy White, Mike Wallace, Miles Austin, Colston, Garcon

 

you probably could get but maybe don't want Welker, Jennings, Cruz, Lloyd

 

 

Here's the challenge with trading Ridley right now:

it is unlikely that someone will give you an Andre Johnson or Brandon Marshal for him and that's probably what you're looking for in return.

You've got to find a highly ranked WR that owners are sour on or a WR that had a big first week and owners think it's a fluke and will, "sell high" on.

And the key there is that either you aren't soured yet OR you don't think it's a fluke.

 

so when asking "who you can get for Ridley" it all depends on who you like and how deep/needy your trading partner is.

If your trading partner has Calvin with Julio, and a Percy Harvin or Demaryius Thomas, then it's a good bet you can get Harvin or Thomas and maybe even push for Julio.

Wow, 2nd round? - This is a bit of a stretch IMO, but if this guy believes it, maybe someone in your league will too. If I were you I'd jump on this hype train immediately and make a deal. Holding out for a 2nd round quality WR may cost you, so if you've got your eye on a 3rd/4th round guy, don't hesitate to pull the trigger. The stock value of Ridley will go down.

[TD Ryan2 314]

The stock value of Ridley will go down.

and this is why it's a game... I disagree with you on Ridley. I think he'll produce all year and be a viable low end #1, high end #2 RB.

 

we'll see.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

and this is why it's a game... I disagree with you on Ridley. I think he'll produce all year and be a viable low end #1, high end #2 RB.

 

we'll see.

 

Agreed

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,592]

I drafted him as my flex rb in every league around the 7th round. I was able to get 2nd and 3rd round WR's by doing that, I wont trade him, I thought going in he was a borderline top 10 rb given his situation, week 1 only reconfirmed that. I am not selling unless I am getting high 2nd round player

[Gepetto 988]

I drafted him as my flex rb in every league around the 7th round. I was able to get 2nd and 3rd round WR's by doing that, I wont trade him, I thought going in he was a borderline top 10 rb given his situation, week 1 only reconfirmed that. I am not selling unless I am getting high 2nd round player

 

Would you take Victor Cruz for Ridley. I'm thinking of offering my Cruz to my opponent for Ridley. I also have Julio, Marshall, Jordy, and Demaryius (auction league and I went hard for WRs).

[TD Ryan2 314]

Would you take Victor Cruz for Ridley.

I own Ridley and it would take a lot for me to trade him - Victor Cruz wouldn't do it for me.

Also, pls. understand that your roster is unique and every roster has unique needs, maybe someone would take Cruz - it just isn't me.

 

For me and RaiderHater, looks like we are thinner at RB and need Ridley. Maybe you can find some guy loaded with RBs that will trade Ridley easier.

 

He's virtually not-tradable for me right now. I would want an Ander Johnson type WR but I also understand that the AJ owner won't give him up either.

[MrBurns 3]

I be willing to trade you Dez Bryant. I would probably try to throw in a lower tier RB for one of your lower tier WRs as well.

[TD Ryan2 314]

I be willing to trade you Dez Bryant. I would probably try to throw in a lower tier RB for one of your lower tier WRs as well.

and that's how it would work... not a staight up RB for WR deal.

I own both Dez and Ridley on the same roster. Ridley is WAY more valuable to me. But packaging RBs and WRs the way you suggested is the route to go.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,592]

I own Ridley and it would take a lot for me to trade him - Victor Cruz wouldn't do it for me.

Also, pls. understand that your roster is unique and every roster has unique needs, maybe someone would take Cruz - it just isn't me.

 

For me and RaiderHater, looks like we are thinner at RB and need Ridley. Maybe you can find some guy loaded with RBs that will trade Ridley easier.

 

He's virtually not-tradable for me right now. I would want an Ander Johnson type WR but I also understand that the AJ owner won't give him up either.

 

see I would possible take Cruz my situations are as follows

 

2 rb 2 wr 1 flex

Fred Jackson ugh

Doug Martin

Andre Johnson

Antonio Brown

Stevan Ridley

 

I have Wayne and Morris on the bench. I am not sure I would play Cruz though over Morris right now at least

 

2 rb 2 wr 1 flex 1 wr/te

Mathews

Martin

Calvin

Percy

S.Smith (car)

Antonio Brown

Ridley

 

I have Morris on the bench in this league, again I dont see the need to make a deal for Cruz

my 3rd team is my sig, Again, no need for Cruz. I dont see myself that deep at RB, however I am happy with my RBs

[Serpent 51]

Probably a 2WR or a high end WR3. I'm thinking Colston, maybe Garcon, Wayne, D-Jax, Maclin type players. As someone else said you won't get the elite WR1 types. Jennings or Wallace could be good bets. Welker and Cruz if you think they'll bounce back (they might).

 

1 game doesn't make Ridley a sure thing, so why would you expect someone to trade a sure thing WR for him?

[Gepetto 988]

At least I have Ridley in my other league (12 team redraft) and started him. Got him in the 8th round to be my flex.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

1 game doesn't make Ridley a sure thing, so why would you expect someone to trade a sure thing WR for him?

BING BING BING... We have a winner! What do we have for him Rod? Well Bob, he'll receive the season long reward of not kicking himself in the ass for making a horrible trade based on week 1 results. CONGRATULATIONS!!!

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

1 game doesn't make Ridley a sure thing, so why would you expect someone to trade a sure thing WR for him?

 

BING BING BING... We have a winner! What do we have for him Rod? Well Bob, he'll receive the season long reward of not kicking himself in the ass for making a horrible trade based on week 1 results. CONGRATULATIONS!!!

 

Hmmm. Which position in fantasy is the toughest to be stable in? Which one has the most injuries? Also, which offense does Ridley play for?

 

Listen, if you don't want to give me a #1 caliber WR in fantasy for Ridley, that's fine. I'll either hold him and enjoy the ride or trade him to someone else who doesn't think like you.

[tmr8188 2]

I am keeping him. I like the duo of Forte and Ridley. He will become expendable once Trent Richardson blows up (hopefully).

[TD Ryan2 314]

BING BING BING... We have a winner! What do we have for him Rod? Well Bob, he'll receive the season long reward of not kicking himself in the ass for making a horrible trade based on week 1 results. CONGRATULATIONS!!!

could you help us understand why you think Ridley will fade? What are your reasons for considering him a one week wonder?

[MrBurns 3]

could you help us understand why you think Ridley will fade? What are your reasons for considering him a one week wonder?

 

Laurence Maroney had some big games. Where is he?

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,592]

I am keeping him. I like the duo of Forte and Ridley. He will become expendable once Trent Richardson blows up (hopefully).

 

Id take Ridley every day of the week over Richardson

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,592]

honestly Ridley is the type of guy you use in a 2 for 1, if you are solid at RB, offer like for example Roddy and Ridley for Calvin, Hernandez and Ridley for Graham, Ridley and Peyton for Brees

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Laurence Maroney had some big games. Where is he?

There's no reason for bitterness just because you don't like your own RB situation.

[Doozer 0]

BING BING BING... We have a winner! What do we have for him Rod? Well Bob, he'll receive the season long reward of not kicking himself in the ass for making a horrible trade based on week 1 results. CONGRATULATIONS!!!

Did you watch the Patriots game? Have you seen Ridley play? Barring injury/fumblitis he's a lock for the top ten. Pats are going to run the ball this year.

[TD Ryan2 314]

Laurence Maroney had some big games. Where is he?

although I understand your point, it's not a very good reason.

You don't like Stevan Ridley because Laurence Maroney didn't work out in NE?

 

Do you not like Brandon Lloyd now because Ocho Cinco did not work out in NE?

 

Maroney had 2, maybe 3 100 yard games in his 4 years in NE. He showed flashes of speed and ouside burst that teased like he could be a game breaker. But he couldn't stay healthy. Didn't run inside well. Missed blocks frequently. Was constantly in BB's doghouse. And was surrounded by a number of other RBs who all split time or featured over him, including:

Sammy Morris

Kevin Faulk

Fred Taylor

Corey Dillon

Benjarvus Green Ellis

LaMont Jordan

 

Ridley's situation is vastly different from Maroney's both from the roster makeup, running styles, and the coaches backing.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

could you help us understand why you think Ridley will fade? What are your reasons for considering him a one week wonder?

A. He suffers from the debilitating disease of Fumble-itis, which could put him on the bench in the Hoodies dog house faster than Michael Vick can throw an INT. The whole reason they stuck with BJGE as long as they did is because he never fumbled.

 

B. A healthy Shane Vereen will eat into his touch count (especially on passing downs), turning this position into more of a timeshare role instead of the feature back that you saw yesterday.

 

C. New England is a pass first team. While they may have cruised out to a comfortable lead yesterday, and had the luxury of handing the ball off to Ridley 21 times, I think you're much more likely to see the lower touch count that BJGE grew accustomed to over the last few seasons, with a 10-15 touch per game average.

 

D. Green-Ellis made a career out being a goal-line back in New England. Ridley would have to lock this down for his value to solidify.

[MrBurns 3]

There's no reason for bitterness just because you don't like your own RB situation.

 

I am not bitter. Maybe as a former Maroney owner, but not this year. I just think the Patriots game plan changes a lot from game to game.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

honestly Ridley is the type of guy you use in a 2 for 1, if you are solid at RB, offer like for example Roddy and Ridley for Calvin, Hernandez and Ridley for Graham, Ridley and Peyton for Brees

Here is a great example of Ridley's current value. Not Ridley straight up for one of these guys.

[DexterMorgan 5]

A. He suffers from the debilitating disease of Fumble-itis, which could put him on the bench in the Hoodies dog house faster than Michael Vick can throw an INT. The whole reason they stuck with BJGE as long as they did is because he never fumbled.

 

B. A healthy Shane Vereen will eat into his touch count (especially on passing downs), turning this position into more of a timeshare role instead of the feature back that you saw yesterday.

 

C. New England is a pass first team. While they may have cruised out to a comfortable lead yesterday, and had the luxury of handing the ball off to Ridley 21 times, I think you're much more likely to see the lower touch count that BJGE grew accustomed to over the last few seasons, with a 10-15 touch per game average.

 

D. Green-Ellis made a career out being a goal-line back in New England. Ridley would have to lock this down for his value to solidify.

 

A-C are legit concerns of mine. I think he has the GL back locked up.

[TD Ryan2 314]

I just think the Patriots game plan changes a lot from game to game.

THAT is a fair point.

But go back and look at how often NE ran the ball even when there were setting passing records.

Please understand. I am not proclaiming that Ridley will be in the Adrian Peterson category here - he's not talented enough to be a "franchise" RB.

But he is a very good RB that is in an ideal situation.

For those that follow NE, Ridley's name isn't new. He was the best RB in NE last year too - a more complete RB than BJGE - but Ridley was a rookie and fumbled and BB buried him for it.

From the get go this year, Ridley has been the man in NE. There is no RB carousel. BB let BJGE go and didn't bring in an army of alternative RBs like he did when Maroney was here (Fred Taylor, Lamont Jordan, Sammy Morris, etc).

Ridley appears to have both the talent to succeed, the offense/situation to put up numbers, and the coaching staff that's giving him a shot.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

Pats are going to run the ball this year.

Really? They're just going to give up on Tom Brady throwing the ball because it hasn't been working? Josh McDaniels is going to change his play calling philosophy from a 2 to 1, Pass to Run ratio, to a run first philosophy? They've brought in almost every free agent WR/TE imaginable this offseason for a try-out because they're going to run it this year instead of pass it?

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

THAT is a fair point.

But go back and look at how often NE ran the ball even when there were setting passing records.

Please understand. I am not proclaiming that Ridley will be in the Adrian Peterson category here - he's not talented enough to be a "franchise" RB.

But he is a very good RB that is in an ideal situation.

For those that follow NE, Ridley's name isn't new. He was the best RB in NE last year too - a more complete RB than BJGE - but Ridley was a rookie and fumbled and BB buried him for it.

From the get go this year, Ridley has been the man in NE. There is no RB carousel. BB let BJGE go and didn't bring in an army of alternative RBs like he did when Maroney was here (Fred Taylor, Lamont Jordan, Sammy Morris, etc).

Ridley appears to have both the talent to succeed, the offense/situation to put up numbers, and the coaching staff that's giving him a shot.

This is where our opinions differ. You see Ridley as a feature back that is going to get carries comparable to other leading rushers. Where as I see Belichick sticking with the approach he has always used in that each player will take on a specific role in the offense.

 

My overall point is, it's one week, can we temper our expectations on this (and many other) guy(s) before we declare him the next greatest thing. Just look at all the threads posted about other guys who were a "sure thing" that didn't have a great week 1, and the owners that are already prepared to bail on them.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Really? They're just going to give up on Tom Brady throwing the ball because it hasn't been working? Josh McDaniels is going to change his play calling philosophy from a 2 to 1, Pass to Run ratio, to a run first philosophy? They've brought in almost every free agent WR/TE imaginable this offseason for a try-out because they're going to run it this year instead of pass it?

FWIW here are a few commets from Brady in his postgame press conference on Sunday.

 

(on RB Stevan Ridley running the ball successfully today)

 

It was great, he ran the ball extremely well. We have to continue to do that — it was very balanced in terms of running and passing and that’s what makes it tough to defend. Situationally, obviously there are some things we could have done better, but at least it is something to build on.

 

 

(on the commitment to the running game today)

 

I think it’s something we’ve been doing all season long. All through mini-camp, training camp, regular season games, you know we’ve made a commitment to running the football and you saw it today. It’s a lot of carries by the backs; they have a lot of opportunity. When you can control the tempo of the game, it really helps out the rest of the team — it helps special teams, it helps defense. I’m not sure what the time of possession was, but it obviously helps that as well. You just can’t drop back and throw it 50 times a game, right around 30 passes a game is where you want to be.

[TexansWinSB 0]

honestly Ridley is the type of guy you use in a 2 for 1, if you are solid at RB, offer like for example Roddy and Ridley for Calvin, Hernandez and Ridley for Graham, Ridley and Peyton for Brees

 

Wondering if Ridley and Jennings for Harvin or Julio would be a fair trade...

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

Wondering if Ridley and Jennings for Harvin or Julio would be a fair trade...

Greg Jennings? - I'd go after Julio with this. Jennings should still be valued higher than Harvin, even with the mild groin injury.

[Ditka vs. ______ 0]

FWIW here are a few commets from Brady in his postgame press conference on Sunday.

That's great - I'll be sure to get all my future FF data from a Tom Brady post game press conference.

[TexansWinSB 0]

This is where our opinions differ. You see Ridley as a feature back that is going to get carries comparable to other leading rushers. Where as I see Belichick sticking with the approach he has always used in that each player will take on a specific role in the offense.

 

My overall point is, it's one week, can we temper our expectations on this (and many other) guy(s) before we declare him the next greatest thing. Just look at all the threads posted about other guys who were a "sure thing" that didn't have a great week 1, and the owners that are already prepared to bail on them.

 

Well see that's the thing. Ridley is either going to keep producing or he's going to fall off. If you're in the camp that thinks he is going to keep producing, you would be better served to try to trade for him now as his value will only increase once it's established that he will be a consistent RB1/2. If he runs for 100 yards and a touchdown every single week, his value will be astronomical. So you would have jumped in at the right time to try to trade for him considering you could have gotten him for a Victor Cruz or someone of that nature at this point in the season. If not, and you have him, you would be better served to trade him away at this point while his value is higher than it was last Monday. That is what this discussion is all about, and why I brought it up in the first place.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

That's great - I'll be sure to get all my future FF data from a Tom Brady post game press conference.

Ha. You're trying too hard now.

[ffexpert 4]

honestly Ridley is the type of guy you use in a 2 for 1, if you are solid at RB, offer like for example Roddy and Ridley for Calvin, Hernandez and Ridley for Graham, Ridley and Peyton for Brees

 

Agreed. I currently have a trade of Ridley + Bowe for Julio Jones (owner lost FJAX).

[deefree93 0]

The "Fumble" history with Ridley somehow became a generally accepted truth, but it is not like he has a huge history of fumbling.

 

Looking at his College career: (From Jeff Howe of the Boston Globe)

Going back [to Ridley's days at LSU], Ridley fumbled once as a sophomore in 2009 and twice as a junior in 2010. In all, those three fumbles came on 323 touches (306 carries, 17 receptions) in 39 collegiate games. That’s one fumble for every 108 touches. Ridley’s only extensive play as the clear-cut No. 1 back at LSU came as a junior when he fumbled twice on 260 touches (249 carries, 11 receptions), which is one fumble for every 130 touches.

 

Let’s put that into some different perspective. The 15 NFL backs who surpassed 1,000 rushing yards in 2011 fumbled the ball a combined 51 times on 4,574 touches (4,033 carries, 541 catches). That’s an average of one fumble for every 90 touches.

 

Last Year

Ridley had 95 touches. 91 carries and 4 catches. He fumbled 2 times, and lost only one. Compared to the NFL average last year he fumbled 2x as much, but that is a very limited sample size, and when considered in line with his college statistics, he seems to be about average with other NFL backs when it comes to fumbling.

 

Conculsion

Ridley's fumbled two times last year. Because he played behind a veteran that never fumbled ever, this was likely blown way out of proportion. It became "conventional wisdom" that he has a fumbling issue, while its not actually the case when you look at the numbers.

 

In fact, it is much more likely that his fumbles were a result of a rookie RB trying too hard to make a play. Both of his fumbles came at the end of the season and on runs where he was trying to extend the play (see a detailed analysis here). There does not seem to be any problem with his hands or running style that will cause him to fumble more than the average back.

 

Sure Vereen will take some carries, but I'm not "selling high" on Ridley