2013 ROOKIE SKILL POSITION FANTASY PROSPECTS

[lesjroza 70]

Yes all 5 are in, two were seniors. I believe all of them can be starters and 3 down backs, of course as you know that will depend on their ability to be able to block right away. Some guys it does take time, and even though there might not be a slam dunk RB like Richardson this year. I think this group is shaping up real nicely.

 

I also have 2 honorable mention backs too.

Lattimore is well worth the gamble IMO, if you play in deep roster leagues, or have I.R. positions.

And for a sleeper back like a Rice or MDJ. I'm really digging Zack Stacy out of Vanderbilt.

 

Kopy, with apologies for not knowing, can I ask how long you have been playing dynasty and evaluating prospects in terms of NFL potential?

 

The reason for asking is I am curious to know how you would characterize this year's 5 relative to the "average" crop.

I have been playing FF since the 1980s but only dynasty for 2 years and at this point in the season I had none of my focus on the incoming class. Even by April, the only interest I had was focused on the prospects the Bears might draft, with the point being, the only class I can judge this one relative to is last year's.

 

The early word I have seen is that this draft class is exceptionally weak relative to the average and I'm curious to hear other's that might have a different point of view. I always like to hear from the people who have a variant point of view because that is where the opportunity lies should they be correct.

 

I know from my study last year that class was outstanding in terms of elite talent. Early study of mine shows this class does not compare, but how would you say it compares to other recent classes in terms of RB talent?

 

I'd love to hear your take on this also MFM.

[Kopy 494]

first my disclosers. I'm just a couch potato who like to throw out his rankings. I tend to develope man crushes, and tunnel vision with certain guys. And sometimes I just go with my gut on someone, and thats always just a really bad analysis for a kid. I like to think that my rankings are a different way of thinking though. You can read 10 different sites, and probably 9 of them have the same top 10, just in a tad different order. None of that is really out on a limb.

 

I've been playing since 98 or 99, all types of leagues. Redraft,keeper,dynasty,auction,salary,IDP. Ran my own keeper league for 4 years, and probably had 4-5 teams every year. 2 years ago I kinda had a burnout feel, and I dropped everything and wanted to figure out what I really liked about playing FFB. And this was in Dynasty. I love having my 1 team that's all mine, built the way I want it from scratch, sink or swim. And my 3 day rookie draft (A round a day) are my 3 funnest days of the year in terms of playing FFB.

I'm not very good with QB's/TE's, and tend to rely on others opinions. I think I've been really good with RB's. And in the last 2 years, with my focus on college for just my 1 team, I had 2 good years now with my WR's.

[Kopy 494]

I think your study is correct for elite talent, so your gonna hear alot of people down on this class. But it doesn't mean it's not good. And it seems pretty deep at WR too.

 

Normally theirs tiers of talent, tier 1 with a couple kids. Tier 2 with 10 more. Tier 3 with 10 more, and so on. giving your own numbers. To me this year, because of that not elite prospect. Now tier 1 is about 15 guys, tier 2 another 15 and so forth. The quality for good players is still there, just more jumbled, with no definitive picks.

 

If I compare a couple classes and players to use as an example.

At WR, there's no A.J. Green or Julio Jones. But their's gonna be a really big number of guys that are Robert Blackman. No studs, but quality guys your gonna want to have and be starters for a long time for you.

 

Looking at last years RB class. Their's no Richardson. He was a 1.1 pick no matter what team drafted him because of his talent. But Martin and Wilson were probably the #2 and 3 backs taken in every draft, and their good backs who can start for there teams. This year, we have probably 10 of those guys.

So the depth and quality is still there. It's just the value of 1.1 or 1.2 and 1.3 aren't what it usually is. That 1.1 talent level kid who's normally the best, is probably the same level of talent/value that say 1.8 pick can be this year.

 

Eddie Lacy could end up changing that alittle. He had a good game versus Georgia, and Dame. If he blows up at the combine and gets drafted to a RB needy team. He'll probably end up being the consensus #1 pick. But I don't think he's that much better than a couple others.

 

I think it's really just the trade value of that 1.1 pick thats really damaged this year.

 

And if I made any sense at all after all that. My current top guys are:

RB - Jonathan Franklin, UCLA

WR - DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson

(I told you, I'm the guy that likes to be different)

[Kopy 494]

I did see your question earlier about Jamison. He's been a hard guy for me to evaluate. The kid has good talent, but it seemed like every time I want to watch him, he either got hurt, or was hurt, and didn't play. I've only really been able to see some youtube videos on him, and they can make anyone look good. I like to watch actual games from people.

I think I have him as just an injury prone guy that I'd like to stay away from.

[lesjroza 70]

Kopy, Thanks for the rundown on your backround and the lense through which you look at the prospects. I will look forward to hearing any nuggets you care to share in the coming days. Speaking of which, tomorrow begins the practices for the East-West Shrine Game. A huge part of the evaluation on these kids is taking place over the next week and we will only get tidbits on TV during the actual game. Do you have any sources you like to follow on Twitter or elsewhere who attend the practices and share notes? A very big week indeed ahead for guys like one of your favs Zack Stacey!

[Kopy 494]

Kopy, Thanks for the rundown on your backround and the lense through which you look at the prospects. I will look forward to hearing any nuggets you care to share in the coming days. Speaking of which, tomorrow begins the practices for the East-West Shrine Game. A huge part of the evaluation on these kids is taking place over the next week and we will only get tidbits on TV during the actual game. Do you have any sources you like to follow on Twitter or elsewhere who attend the practices and share notes? A very big week indeed ahead for guys like one of your favs Zack Stacey!

No, I don't have anyone I follow personally. I just try to soak up and read everything I can that comes out. I really don't even care about the game. It's the practices that I find the most important.

Who did well?

Who looked healthy?

Who was a jerk?

I don't deal with anyone who can't practice or is a jerk or has some sort of baggage. This is why I missed the boat on Josh Gordon last year. I completely disregarded him, and he's actually impressed my very much. But I still stand by how easy someone is to coach and work ethic for declaries.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I'll probably post all of my all-star game notes here, but regarding the Shrine Game, there is a very good group of players with NFL futures. Heights and weights are official; 40 speeds are estimates only.

 

The main ones are:

Quarterbacks:

Collin Klein, Kansas State - 6'4 1/2", 218# 4.72

Matt Scott, Arizona - 6' 1 3/4" 202#", 4.68

Nathan Stanley, Southeastern Louisiana - 6' 4 1/4", 209# 4.87

Colby Cameron, Louisiana Tech - 6' 2 1/4" 210#

IMO this year's class of QBs is very weak. Scott and Stanley could move up plenty on my preliminary QB list.

 

Running Backs:

Ray Graham, Pittsburgh - 5'9 1/4" 192#, 4.52

Christine Michael, Texas A&M - 5' 9 3/4", 221# 4.54

Kerwynn Williams, Utah State - 5'7 3/4", 196# 4.45

Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt - 5' 8 3/8", 215#, 4.50

In this group, I'm extremely interested in analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of Graham, Stacy and Williams, who possess some similar traits as running backs. Having watched a decent amount of the Aggies, I think I have a pretty good feel for Michael's game.

Zach Line, SMU 6' 3/8" 233# 4.7

 

Wide Receivers:

Emory Blake, Auburn - 6' 1/2", 196# 4.56

Dan Buckner, Arizona - 6'3 1/2, 212#, 4.59

Jasper Collins, Mount Union - 5' 10 1/8, 183# 4.53

Keenan Davis, Iowa - 6'2 1/8" 216#, 4.50

Marcus Davis, Virginia Tech - 6'3 1/8", 230#, 4.47

Late Edit: Corey Fuller, Virginia Tech - 6'2 1/8" 197#, 4.39 (as an athlete, Marcus Davis has better combine measurables, but Fuller is the more has more natural WR.

Rodney Smith, Florida State - 6' 4 3/8", 220#, 4.6

I expect Marcus Davis to show as the class of the of this field, but as always there are some who could emerge and surprise.

 

Tight Ends:

Joseph Fauria, UCLA - 6'7 1/4" 257#, 4.78,

DC Jefferson, Rutgers - 6'5 3/4" 255#, 4.78

Zach Sudfield, Nevada - 6' 6 3/8" 261#

 

I'm going out of town this weekend, but will post Shrine Game impressions Monday night.

[lesjroza 70]

Nice list MFM, and I'll definitely look forward to your comments!

[madd futher mucker 36]

Nice list MFM, and I'll definitely look forward to your comments!

 

I originally had omitted other Va Tech WR, Corey Fuller, off the list. IMO, he deserves to be mentioned right up there with Marcus Davis from the same school. So I edited him in - but there are a few others like Jasper Collins of tiny Mount Union college who we will see if they belong in the conversation as well.

[lesjroza 70]

I originally had omitted other Va Tech WR, Corey Fuller, off the list. IMO, he deserves to be mentioned right up there with Marcus Davis from the same school. So I edited him in - but there are a few others like Jasper Collins of tiny Mount Union college who we will see if they belong in the conversation as well.

 

I saw Collins getting some love already today and people will be a bit more inclined to take a second look with the success of Garcon and Shorts. I saw some good stuff about Keenan Davis, and I also saw where Fauria may have gone down with an injury already which would be unfortunate, hopefully it's minor.

[lesjroza 70]

I saw Collins getting some love already today and people will be a bit more inclined to take a second look with the success of Garcon and Shorts. I saw some good stuff about Keenan Davis, and I also saw where Fauria may have gone down with an injury already which would be unfortunate, hopefully it's minor.

 

Collins not so hot on the 2nd day struggling with press coverage apparently. Keenan Davis said to be looking solid again though.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I added in a couple of guys and posted all of the official heights and weights. Most were very close to the estimates. Probably the biggest surprise was that Christine Michael was only 5' 9 3/4" instead of the 5' 11" he was listed at in most published sources. But he has looked very quick for carrying his weight of 221#.

 

I'm not one to post daily practice commentary, so I'd only say at this point that Ray Graham has stood out as the quickest RB of the group, and is making some of the best cuts; but he is also one of the lightest RBs at the Shrine at 192#. It does confirm to me what I felt from his last 3 or 4 games of the season, that he's all the way back from his ACL injury last year. So his stock is definitely going back up - Shades of Shady McCoy.

 

The RBs are the cream of this all-star game, and all of the top four RBs who are at this venue - Graham, Stacy, Michael and Kerwynn Williams - still rank fairly even as prospects based on the drills at this point. But it is tough to gauge how they really stack up against each other when they are only working out in drills and not fully scrimmaging.

[Kopy 494]

Hey Madd, if you could keep me updated on Stacy and Graham that would be really appreciated.

Stacy I absolutely love as a sleeper, and Graham, I admitt I'm alittle down on him. But if he looks good here, and then at the combine then he definitly moves back into my rankings. If he's truely 100% healthy again, then he can play ball.

 

Also a quick question on Williams. Do you think he's just too small for an NFL workload?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Hey Madd, if you could keep me updated on Stacy and Graham that would be really appreciated.

Stacy I absolutely love as a sleeper, and Graham, I admitt I'm alittle down on him. But if he looks good here, and then at the combine then he definitly moves back into my rankings. If he's truely 100% healthy again, then he can play ball.

 

Also a quick question on Williams. Do you think he's just too small for an NFL workload?

 

These four guys have slightly different skill sets, but all are very close in my rankings right now. And no, i don't think Williams is too small at all for the NFL. At 5'7 3/4 and 196#, his BMI is much better than Graham's. He reminds me of a poor man's Darren Sproles - or maybe a better comparison is a slightly faster Jaquizz Rodgers.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Now some preliminary comments on QBs, TEs, and WRs:

 

Quarterback - There is only one guy at the Shrine Game who I believe will have starter potential at the pro level and it isn't either Arizona's Scott or K State's Collin Klein. The guy I'd put my money on is Nathan Stanley of Southeastern Louisiana. And make no mistake, he's no RGIII.

 

Tight End - Joseph Faurina injured himself on day 1. He has some pro potential, but it probably would have to be a perfect system for him to have fantasy football potential as a TE. He's a poor blocker and lacks physicality, but is the most advanced pass catcher in the group. Sudfield is slow off the line, but is a better blocker than Faurina and is a large target with natural receiving skills. IMO the TE with the most NFL and also the most fantasy football potential is Rutgers DC Jefferson. A converted QB, Jefferson has the size, blocking skills, and route running to do very well in the NFL. He will not be a 'move' TE - he is cut out of the Brandon Pettigrew, Heath Miller mold.

 

Wide Receivers:

The two guys who really stood out positively this week are Iowa's Keenan Davis and Auburn's Emory Blake (who wasn't really even on my radar). Keenan Davis really adjusts well to the ball in traffic, he attacks the ball in the air and has terrific hands. Probably his best position in the NFL will be inside or running slants over the middle. Emory's style is somewhat similar; he gains separation by running great routes and can disguise his inside or out routes equally well.

 

Virginia Tech's Corey Fuller may just have best combination of physical ability and receiving skills of any receiver at the Shrine game. He has plenty of raw speed to stretch the field and knows how to position his body inside. He should be able to learn and excel at any of the receiver positions. He's probably highest on my dynasty list of the receivers at the Shrine Game venue right now.

 

On the other hand, perhaps the most over-rated player was his college teammate, Marcus Davis. He's an athletic freak, but don't be fooled into drafting him on your dynasty team based on his Combine showing. He has almost no ball tracking skills and lacks the natural hands of an NFL wide receiver.

 

Rodney Smith could well be drafted into the NFL the highest of any WR at the Shrine game, again based on his measurables and showing some decent ball tracking ability. But he's a long strider who is more fast than quick, plays smaller than his 6'4" 220# frame, and appears to have concentration issues when it comes to actually catching the football. Scouts will definitely see great upside here, so he's a boom or bust pick.

 

Dan Buckner is built similarly to Rodney Smith, but lacks the hands, the quicks and the speed. I'm thinking of Ramses Barden potential.

 

Finally, to me, Jasper Collins is no Pierre Garcon or Cecil Shorts. The small 5' 10" 180# wide receiver lacks both the physicality and the moxie to beat any kind of press at the line of scrimmage. While Collins does have speed and quickness necessary to succeed in the NFL if/when he learns to get LOS separation, he just has not consistently shown the sure soft hands of a dependable NFL wide receiver. Too many drops.

 

I'll be interested to see how they all perform in the game situation.

[Kopy 494]

I keep hearing that Michael looks real good in practice. I'm not too surprised, as this time last year he was firmly implanted on my watch list as the talent is there.

I've since taken him off of my potential draft list though. With the conclusion that he's a $100 talent, but .10 cent head kind of guy. I'd let others take him with the theory that either A: He won't become a feature back, or B: He would self implode at some point.

[DankNuggs 305]

Ray Graham is the best NFL RB in the class...Fauria's son is a stud TE as well and should translate very well to the pros.

[ralphster 274]

Ray Graham is the best NFL RB in the class...Fauria's son is a stud TE as well and should translate very well to the pros.

 

 

Based on what that you've seen? I have probably ten or twelve players ahead of Graham. Faurina I don't know much about.

[Kopy 494]

Senior Bowl time.

Very impressed by Andre Ellingtons numbers.

Looks like I was way off on my numbers on this kid. I had him At 5'10"/5'11" - 180

He weighed in at 5'9" - 197. Huge difference here. Gonna really watch closely this week, and then check out some film on him.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Ray Graham is the best NFL RB in the class...

 

I didn't see any TOP of the class prospects in the Shrine Game group. Here are my wrap-up impressions for fantasy:

 

QBs and TEs: All tier 3 or tier 4 prospects (very marginal fantasy value in a 4 round dynasty rookie draft).

 

Wide Receivers:

Tier 2: Probably 2nd rounders in a 4 round dynasty rookie draft depending on the NFL situation they are drafted into:

Corey Fuller - Va Tech. My highest rated WR at the Shrine Game.

Keenan Williams - Iowa. Second on the list.

 

Tier 3:

Emory Blake, Auburn. Probably a 3rd round dynasty rookie pick for me.

Rodney Smith - Florida State. Ditto.

 

Tier 4: Receivers I'd only take a 4th round flier on.

Jasper Collins, Mt Union College, Dan Buckner, Marcus Davis (I really think he's a bust for several reasons), Anthony Amos, Middle Tennessee.

 

Running Backs:

Tier 2: None of these guys are Tier 1 RBs in my opinion, but all should be drafted at least in the second round of the rookie dynasty drafts (perhaps earlier if they get drafted into a favorable situation). I haven't watched enough tape to definitlvely rank these four guys, but I really don't think it matters since the order of preference will really be determined by which team drafts them.

Christine Michael, Texas A&M - Michael has the best combination of power and speed. The questions relate to his willingness to take coaching. He didn't see eye to eye and got himself in the dog house with Coach Sumlin and didn't even begin to put effort in to learning pass blocking technique. As a result, he will likely start his career as a two down RB.

Kerwynn Williams, Utah State - He has become my personal favorite. He runs with great speed, agilty and power for his size, and is one of the very best open field runners in the whole draft class. In addition, he has shown that he is the most willing and able pass blocker of the four Tier 2 RBs listed here. At 5' 7 3/4 196, i really believe he COULD develop into a Ray Rice type 3 down back.

Ray Graham, Pittsburgh - Graham COULD (there's that word "could" again) develop into a L McCoy type RB at the next level, but that is not to say it will happen, and even if it does, it will not happen overnight. He is a more slightly built back like McCoy was coming out of college. Like McCoy, he shows great quickness, vision and hands as a receiver. However, He does not show much of a power RB game, so he initially projects as a third-down back.

Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt - I see Stacy as a poor man's version of Doug Martin. He's not going to blow you away with either his speed or his raw power, but he always runs hard and has the vision to find his running lanes, and is just elusive enough with his cuts to make that first defenders miss much of the time. And like Martin, he does not shy away from contact. So i like him as a prospect, but am just not as high on him as Kopy is.

 

Tier 3:

Zack line, SMU - He is a Fullback who has just enough wiggle to fill in as a RB when needed and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. He will make it in the NFL and be that solid contributor when called upon to take over the RB duties when a starter goes down.

 

Moving on to some Senior Bowl observations shortly.

[Kopy 494]

I thought Graham looked pretty healthy to me, so thats a big bonus to be able to add him to this RB class.

I'd say he's better than Dion Lewis, but not as good as McCoy.

He can play special teams, so thats a plus for him, should keep a roster spot becuase of that.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Senior Bowl time.

Very impressed by Andre Ellingtons numbers.

Looks like I was way off on my numbers on this kid. I had him At 5'10"/5'11" - 180

He weighed in at 5'9" - 197. Huge difference here. Gonna really watch closely this week, and then check out some film on him.

 

Here's the weigh in and some early comments on each of these guys:

QBs:

Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, 6’ 2 1/8” 218” - He's the class of this group. Period.

Mike Glennon, NC State, 6’ 6” 220# - Struggles with footwork, and that leads to problems of inaccuracy.

Zac Dysert, Miami (OH), 6‘ 2 7/8” 224# - He is an aggressive QB in the Wheeden mold; tends to stare down his receivers.

EJ Manuel, FSU, 6’4 3/8” 237# - Can make every throw but shows questionable decision making.

Ryan Nassib, Syracuse, 6’ 2”, 223# - He's athletic and has decent arm strength. Needs to learn when to use a lighter touch on his passes.

 

RBs:

Kenjon Barner, Oregon, 5’ 9 ¼’ 188# - He will be a change of pace back. Very good speed, but lacks the size and the lower leg drive. Will need to make his living in space to be successful in the pros.

Andre Ellington, Clemson - 5’ 9 ½” 197# - He's cat quick. I haven't formed any strong opinion on him yet, but as Kopy noted, he's bigger than expected.

Jonathan Franklin, UCLA, 5’ 10”, 201# - I'm not sure he's a three down back, but he IS a 3rd down back who can definitely get it done as a receiver out of the backfield.

Mike Gillislee, Florida - 5’ 11 ¼”, 207# - Quick feet, nice hands as a receiver. He's weak at pass pro, so his ability to learn pass protection will tell how much he will contribute as a pro. He has decent NFL upside if he develops.

Stepfan Taylor, Stanford, 5’ 9”, 216# - I like what I've seen and read of his game very much. Very good balance allows him to stay on his feet through contact. Ideal RB size, and perhaps the best pass blocker of the whole 2013 RB class.

 

WRs:

I'll profile the receivers tomorrow except for my man-crush on

Markus Wheaton, Oregon, 5’ 11” 183# - Wheaton has been the most impressive receiver at the Senior Bowl. In practices, he has shown great speed, quickness and separation skills, as well as strong sure hands and fearlessness over the middle. He runs great routes with a natural fluidness to his game. He reminds me much of Kendall Wright from last year's class. I don't know whose game i like better.

[lesjroza 70]

Senior Bowl time.

Very impressed by Andre Ellingtons numbers.

Looks like I was way off on my numbers on this kid. I had him At 5'10"/5'11" - 180

He weighed in at 5'9" - 197. Huge difference here. Gonna really watch closely this week, and then check out some film on him.

 

He left the event early with an injury (not serious as far as I know) and I'm bummed because I wanted to see him against a full squad of NFL quality athletes.

[ralphster 274]

Anyone have info on Montee Ball? I saw him run all over Min (literally) at the end of October but further research would indicate he's been streaky. Does he catch passes? Pass block? Round 2 material?

[lesjroza 70]

Anyone have info on Montee Ball? I saw him run all over Min (literally) at the end of October but further research would indicate he's been streaky. Does he catch passes? Pass block? Round 2 material?

 

I have read evaluators that think Ball is a nice NFL prospect and others that think he is sure to be another R. Dayne. I think so far he is a love 'em/ hate 'em type. I think that to some extent players from major college programs that have NFL quality measurables on the OL tend to actually suffer from skepticism about their production being a product of their circumstance if they do not flash elusiveness. In my mind the combine and pro day numbers are very important to consider with players like Ball.

 

There are plenty of others who are more skilled and place very little weight on the combine numbers. MFM mentioned earlier in reference to Lacey he trusts his eyes and doesn't need any type of confirmation from the combine. I wear glasses so I don't trust what I see! I personally would stay away from taking either Ball or maybe even Lacey with a high pick (which would likely put me out of the market for either of these guys) unless I see solid speed numbers for their size at the combine.

[ralphster 274]

I personally would stay away from taking either Ball or maybe even Lacey with a high pick (which would likely put me out of the market for either of these guys) unless I see solid speed numbers for their size at the combine.

 

I like his size and vision. His production will likely depend on where he gets drafted.

[lesjroza 70]

I like his size and vision. His production will likely depend on where he gets drafted.

 

He has good RB size no question. I am going to go wayyyyy out on a limb here and say that unless he runs somewhere in the 4.4s (4.49 or less) he will be available to you in our draft at your 1.12 pick unless he ends up in Atl or Pit. Vision on tape at the college level does not always translate into the ability to produce "vision yards" at the pro level and the 3 cone drill will be a good predictor there if you feel he has a natural instinct for seeing the running lanes.

[Kopy 494]

I keep hearing good things about Lattimore's recovery. Will his progress change everyone's RB rankings?

2 month's ago I was hoping to have the option of taking him late in round 1 if I desired. Now it looks like he won't fall.

[lesjroza 70]

I keep hearing good things about Lattimore's recovery. Will his progress change everyone's RB rankings?

2 month's ago I was hoping to have the option of taking him late in round 1 if I desired. Now it looks like he won't fall.

 

It's really hard to know how much of what we read is agent driven from now until the draft. I have read that he is progressing nicely also but I think that just means walking well right now. I have no doubt that by the time rookie drafts roll around there is a good chance Lattimore will go in the top half of the 1st round of many drafts as a high risk high reward play.

 

Given the multiple knee injuries I don't think anyone could take him other than as a true luxury pick. I read an awful lot about many players in last year's class due to 2 rookie drafts and 1 startup. There were 2 players that I thought were very skilled and I had a strong interest in because of where they were going in drafts and because of the opportunity I saw in their landing spot but I knew there concerns about past knee issues.

 

1 of those players was Broyles. Most everybody knows he looked awfully good when he made it onto the field in Det. but ended up busting his other knee after only a few weeks of playing time. The other guy most forget about is Greg Childs. I was stoked to get him in a couple of drafts because in the early part of his college career he was mentioned in the same breath with AJGreen and Julio and you could see why on tape but he had battled knee injuries through college. He seemed to be back to form and was flat beasting in Min in preseason and was exactly what they (and I) could have used this year. He ended up blowing up both patella tendons on the same play.

 

Not only should there be concern about Lattimore's post injury form but also whether his joints are built in a way that supports his playing style and NFL career. Some guys have the rest of the body but not the joints. Its just the way God made us. I have no idea on Lattimore but it would be foolish to ignore the possibilty because of the 2 injuries in back to back years. Incidentally, the guy who was picking 2nd in one of my drafts said he didn't take RGIII because of a previous knee injury which I completely forgot about until I read about his recent surgery. Knees are kind of important to playing football well and when the injuries crop early in a career it could be just bad luck but it could also be indicative of a more systemic issue.

[GreenTD 56]

What's your guys thoughts on Giovani Bernard? I've watched some of his YouTube highlights but wasn't overly impressed. He's got decent speed & good hands but I don't see the quick burst that I'd want in a 2nd round pick where he's been mocked quite a bit lately.

 

As a Bengals fan, I want to see them add a dynamic back to pair with the hard-nosed running style of BGE. Whether it's via free agency (R. Bush) or the draft, I don't care. Thoughts on Bernard?

[lesjroza 70]

What's your guys thoughts on Giovani Bernard? I've watched some of his YouTube highlights but wasn't overly impressed. He's got decent speed & good hands but I don't see the quick burst that I'd want in a 2nd round pick where he's been mocked quite a bit lately.

 

As a Bengals fan, I want to see them add a dynamic back to pair with the hard-nosed running style of BGE. Whether it's via free agency (R. Bush) or the draft, I don't care. Thoughts on Bernard?

 

I read a Evan Silva article the other day where he compared Bernard's game to Ryan Mathews and I think that is spot on from what I have seen. If you took R. Mathews last year in the middle of the first round you are saying "Oh no, yuck!, who wants another Mathews?" but I think it's actually a compliment.

 

Many of these rookie players will fall by the wayside and never pan out. Being compared to a fluid athlete who plays on Sundays and has been succesful in the NFL is not a dig. Mathews may never turn out to be the stud feature RB people were hoping for, but he has a solid role and that could happen for Bernard as well. If it turns out Bernard has a really strong work ethic and is more durable than Mathews then maybe he will take it to the next level, but at a minimum, I think he could be a solid contributor and a PPR asset if the cards fall right.

 

I will need to see some strong combine numbers, but if he ends up in the right situation I could see myself drafting him in the first round of a rookie draft.

[kmbryant09 1]

It's really hard to know how much of what we read is agent driven from now until the draft. I have read that he is progressing nicely also but I think that just means walking well right now. I have no doubt that by the time rookie drafts roll around there is a good chance Lattimore will go in the top half of the 1st round of many drafts as a high risk high reward play.

 

Given the multiple knee injuries I don't think anyone could take him other than as a true luxury pick. I read an awful lot about many players in last year's class due to 2 rookie drafts and 1 startup. There were 2 players that I thought were very skilled and I had a strong interest in because of where they were going in drafts and because of the opportunity I saw in their landing spot but I knew there concerns about past knee issues.

 

1 of those players was Broyles. Most everybody knows he looked awfully good when he made it onto the field in Det. but ended up busting his other knee after only a few weeks of playing time. The other guy most forget about is Greg Childs. I was stoked to get him in a couple of drafts because in the early part of his college career he was mentioned in the same breath with AJGreen and Julio and you could see why on tape but he had battled knee injuries through college. He seemed to be back to form and was flat beasting in Min in preseason and was exactly what they (and I) could have used this year. He ended up blowing up both patella tendons on the same play.

 

Not only should there be concern about Lattimore's post injury form but also whether his joints are built in a way that supports his playing style and NFL career. Some guys have the rest of the body but not the joints. Its just the way God made us. I have no idea on Lattimore but it would be foolish to ignore the possibilty because of the 2 injuries in back to back years. Incidentally, the guy who was picking 2nd in one of my drafts said he didn't take RGIII because of a previous knee injury which I completely forgot about until I read about his recent surgery. Knees are kind of important to playing football well and when the injuries crop early in a career it could be just bad luck but it could also be indicative of a more systemic issue.

You will probably get blasted by some players for thinking that you can 'predict injuries' - but I agree with you 100%.

 

Some people are just built differently. Some are big & tall, some are short & skinny. Some have stronger bones than others. Some have weaker ligaments than others.

 

I'm not sure 1 or 2 unrelated injuries is enough for me to label a player as injury prone - but there's definitely a pattern to some of these things. I don't like certain guys - like Mathews/McFadden/Vick - will ever remain healthy for sustained periods during their careers.

[lesjroza 70]

You will probably get blasted by some players for thinking that you can 'predict injuries' - but I agree with you 100%.

 

Some people are just built differently. Some are big & tall, some are short & skinny. Some have stronger bones than others. Some have weaker ligaments than others.

 

I'm not sure 1 or 2 unrelated injuries is enough for me to label a player as injury prone - but there's definitely a pattern to some of these things. I don't like certain guys - like Mathews/McFadden/Vick - will ever remain healthy for sustained periods during their careers.

 

Yes, I will probably get some pushback but to clarify beforehand, I am not labeling anybody as injury prone. Injuries happen, and even to say they are more likely to happen to one player than another, you should have a longer time frame to consider than these college players have afforded us.

 

Look at it this way though. If you sign up for auto insurance and end up in 2 car accidents in the 1st 2 years of driving, even if they were the fault of the other party, the insurance company is going to raise your rates. By raising your rate IMO they are not trying to gouge you (maybe they are if they raise it too much but I'm just talking direction here), they have just identified you as a bigger risk for future accidents. They may still be willing to take the risk of insuring you but they need a bigger reward for doing so. That's all I try to do with any player, determine the right value to pay based on risk/reward and I'm opining that college athletes that have already had a knee injury (or 2) are a different risk/reward than those who have not.

 

An established NFL player who has an injury........... or accident to continue the analogy, but has "already been driving for 5 years without incident" is a different risk profile IMO.

 

I have no problem with someone disagreeing, it's great!

 

It means it's more likely someone I value higher will fall to me. I personally will assign a higher risk discount than I have in the past based on my experience this past year for injured knees when it comes to rookie players. It could be overweighting my short and limited dynasty results but it's just where I am at right now.

[Kopy 494]

I'm in the same boat as lesjroza. I do like Bernard, but just how much will depend on where he goes. There's a couple guys I'm really high on, that even if they get drafted into a bad situation, I would still take them, Bernard isn't one of them. I want to see the combine, where he's drafted/who it's by. And then how he does in camp to see just how much love to give him.

 

On a side not, I do think that Bernard and BGE would compliment each other pretty well.

[Kopy 494]

Hey lesjroza (or anyone else) Have you looked at Joseph Randle at all? I'm looking to get some other thoughts on him. I really like what I see. But I've had some other posters that I talk to elsewhere, who's opinions I've come to admire, try to talk me out of ranking him so high.

[lesjroza 70]

Hey lesjroza (or anyone else) Have you looked at Joseph Randle at all? I'm looking to get some other thoughts on him. I really like what I see. But I've had some other posters that I talk to elsewhere, who's opinions I've come to admire, try to talk me out of ranking him so high.

 

I have not formulated any opinion on Randle at this point. I have seen a few evaluators have him as the number 4/5 RB in the class. Just from a size/weight perspective as he is listed he doesn't seem ideally built. Sorry no help, but I'm sure we will come back to him and I will certainly be doing more work if he has standout combine numbers.

 

I also think Bernard would be a good fit with the Bengals but I thought they were aiming either higher (Lacey) or lower (later rounds) based on tea leaves.

 

At least that was my thinking prior to the other day where I saw the RBs coach retired. I thought I remembered that the Bengals RB coach was at either the Shrine game or Senior bowl looking at prospects and working with them so it wouldn't surprise me if they found a later round favorite there and focused on other areas in the draft, that was my thinking prior to the retirement anyway. Does anyone else remember reading about the Bengals coach being at one of those games and working with the RBs?

[DankNuggs 305]

Based on what that you've seen? I have probably ten or twelve players ahead of Graham. Faurina I don't know much about.

Yep... Thats wonderful you have 10 or 12 ahead of him, that doesn't mean a whole lot to me.

 

I like Ellington, but he is a poor mans CJ Spiller, and Im not sure he is dynamic enough to do it in the pros...

 

Fauria was UCLA's best player. Monster TE who can run, catch and block.

[jaxjag 43]

Looking at last years year's RB class. Their's There's no Richardson. He was a 1.1 pick no matter what team drafted him because of his talent. But Martin and Wilson were probably the #2 and 3 backs taken in every draft, and their they're good backs who can start for there their teams.

 

Fixed.

 

Sorry, the "Robert Blackman" reference put me over the edge.

[Kopy 494]

Fixed.

 

Sorry, the "Robert Blackman" reference put me over the edge.

[ralphster 274]

Hey lesjroza (or anyone else) Have you looked at Joseph Randle at all? I'm looking to get some other thoughts on him. I really like what I see. But I've had some other posters that I talk to elsewhere, who's opinions I've come to admire, try to talk me out of ranking him so high.

 

Randle runs a bit upright for my taste but if he continues adding strength and keeps his burst he could be a nice addition. I'd say 3rd rounder at this point (pre-combine).

 

Yep... Thats wonderful you have 10 or 12 ahead of him, that doesn't mean a whole lot to me.

 

I like Ellington, but he is a poor mans CJ Spiller, and Im not sure he is dynamic enough to do it in the pros...

 

Fauria was UCLA's best player. Monster TE who can run, catch and block.

 

That's wonderful that you feel comfortable dropping blanket opinions without any qualifications - in turn they don't mean a lot to the rest of us. Perhaps a few less dank nuggs and a little more elucidation? If you feel like someone is great take the time to explain why - the hit and run HES THE MOAR BESTEST!!1! posts add little to the discussion.