2013 ROOKIE SKILL POSITION FANTASY PROSPECTS

[Kopy 491]

81

[Kopy 491]

I think that Lattimore and Randle both give me a Darren McFadden feel to them. Is this a ballpark comparison?

[lesjroza 70]

I think that Lattimore and Randle both give me a Darren McFadden feel to them. Is this a ballpark comparison?

 

I'm not sure in which regard you mean. If I have Randle's numbers right, I think he is about 6 ft 1 200 lbs. If he runs upright as somebody else mentioned I would think he may take a beating in the pros. Lots of target surface to attack and not thickly built, so he might be a bit more prone to injuries I suppose.

 

I don't want it to sound like I hate Lattimore. I think he has good RB size/weight/speed and would have been the clear #1 overall choice in this rookie class and probably would have even been in the top tier in last years RB class if not for the knee injuries. I think he is a high risk/high reward pick for NFL and fantasy teams.

 

We have a guy in one of my leagues that has 3 1st round picks all in the back half of the 1st round. It is also a league where you can taxi a guy for 2 years. That would be the ideal situation to take Lattimore in my opinion. He is a boom/bust guy and you may not be able to use him for awhile so you have to be OK that the pick may turn out to have no value and you have to be OK with the roster slot being clogged for some time before you get any production.

 

 

I have one league where I lost in the championship game and have pick #11 and also own pick #9 via trade. There are only 17 roster slots and I just don't think I can carry Lattimore in that league even if he makes it to me at pick #9.

[coryjagfan28 0]

been watching lots of video lately. Just my opinions. Not like the Patriots are busting down the door for my notes.

 

M. Ball- Has good balance. Speed and a nice juke move. Seems to ourrun his blocks, relying more on speed. which isnt good, since everyone in the NFL is fast. Has good N/S speed, but slows down some W/E

 

J. Randle- plays to his size. He's big. Seems like he does the hitting instead of getting hit. willing to stand in and block, instead of ankle-diving. When he makes contact, has a good habit of going forward, not backwards. He doesnt dazzle, he just keeps make progress. His size and style makes him more likely to injury

 

G Bernard- Has a nice spin move to avoid tackles, but if he gets hit, hes going down. Not much for fighting thru the tackle. Shoots out like a dart though. Great speed. He is an akle-diver though. Would like my RBs to take some shoulder to shoulder blocks sometimes.

 

Z Stacy - I like that he fights for yards. Doesnt hit and stop. Continues to churn the legs in the piles. Good hands and good speed. and he follows his blocks really well.

 

The thing I look for most when Im watching college RBs, is how well they follow their blocks and how much the improvise and rely on their speed. you can be fast in college, but in the NFL everyone is fast, and its alot more important to stick to scheme instead of freelance. My favorite thing to look for is, I like to see the RBs put their hands on their blockers backs. To me, that shows patience and waiting for blocks to develope. Instead of just speeding past your pulling lineman and racing to the corner for a 9 yd gain. Waiting for your blocks to develope usually leads to longer gains.

[Kopy 491]

I'm not sure in which regard you mean. If I have Randle's numbers right, I think he is about 6 ft 1 200 lbs. If he runs upright as somebody else mentioned I would think he may take a beating in the pros. Lots of target surface to attack and not thickly built, so he might be a bit more prone to injuries I suppose.

 

I don't want it to sound like I hate Lattimore. I think he has good RB size/weight/speed and would have been the clear #1 overall choice in this rookie class and probably would have even been in the top tier in last years RB class if not for the knee injuries. I think he is a high risk/high reward pick for NFL and fantasy teams.

 

We have a guy in one of my leagues that has 3 1st round picks all in the back half of the 1st round. It is also a league where you can taxi a guy for 2 years. That would be the ideal situation to take Lattimore in my opinion. He is a boom/bust guy and you may not be able to use him for awhile so you have to be OK that the pick may turn out to have no value and you have to be OK with the roster slot being clogged for some time before you get any production.

 

 

I have one league where I lost in the championship game and have pick #11 and also own pick #9 via trade. There are only 17 roster slots and I just don't think I can carry Lattimore in that league even if he makes it to me at pick #9.

 

What i thought I saw was similar running styles between them. Randle I'm not so sure of, but I thought that McFadden and Lattimore looked pretty close. I think Lattimore has a little more power, while McFadden was alittle faster. But while watching, Lattimore, McFadden was the name that kept popping into my head.

[ralphster 274]

M. Ball- Has good balance. Speed and a nice juke move. Seems to ourrun his blocks, relying more on speed. which isnt good, since everyone in the NFL is fast. Has good N/S speed, but slows down some W/E

 

J. Randle- plays to his size. He's big. Seems like he does the hitting instead of getting hit. willing to stand in and block, instead of ankle-diving. When he makes contact, has a good habit of going forward, not backwards. He doesnt dazzle, he just keeps make progress. His size and style makes him more likely to injury

 

G Bernard- Has a nice spin move to avoid tackles, but if he gets hit, hes going down. Not much for fighting thru the tackle. Shoots out like a dart though. Great speed. He is an akle-diver though. Would like my RBs to take some shoulder to shoulder blocks sometimes.

 

Z Stacy - I like that he fights for yards. Doesnt hit and stop. Continues to churn the legs in the piles. Good hands and good speed. and he follows his blocks really well.

 

The thing I look for most when Im watching college RBs, is how well they follow their blocks and how much the improvise and rely on their speed. you can be fast in college, but in the NFL everyone is fast, and its alot more important to stick to scheme instead of freelance. My favorite thing to look for is, I like to see the RBs put their hands on their blockers backs. To me, that shows patience and waiting for blocks to develope. Instead of just speeding past your pulling lineman and racing to the corner for a 9 yd gain. Waiting for your blocks to develope usually leads to longer gains.

 

Nice insight Cory! I haven't seen much of anything on Stacy, but I do like those who fight.

[Kopy 491]

Nice insight Cory! I haven't seen much of anything on Stacy, but I do like those who fight.

Absolutely love Stacy as a late round flier at RB. I was alittle disappointed in his shrine performance. But I suppose for someone like me, where I believe in the kids skills, no matter what a week of practice and one game means. Then him not standing out is probably a good thing for me. It means I can still get him at late round value.

When I say late value, to me that means at the end of round 2, and into round 3, in a 12 team rookie draft.

[Kopy 491]

The 2 things I really like about both Ray Graham and Zac Stacy both also is: Both of these guys are willing to play special teams. Anything to get on the field and to contribute. That should make both guys a lock to make the pro roster for whatever team takes them.

[Kopy 491]

Combine starting next week. This shouldn't change peoples rankings too much, that won't really happen until draft time.

But are their any guys you still want to look at to get a better feel for?

For me I'm still looking at rb's

Ray Graham, Zac Stacy, and Jawain Jamison. I'm still not too sure what I see here. I know I like all 3. But I gotta figure out if I like them enough to draft them in a rookie draft.

Also I'd really like to see TE Tyler Eiffort. I havn't really looked at TE too much. When it comes to recent Dame te's, is he

Carlson

Rudolph

Or something even better like I keep being told.

[lesjroza 70]

Combine starting next week. This shouldn't change peoples rankings too much, that won't really happen until draft time.

 

 

I don't really even get started on my rankings until after the combine actually and the combine is very important to me. I don't have the opportunity to watch a ton of college football. There are a handful of the top guys I have had a chance to study a bit because they jumped off the screen for me or as their names come up here and elsewhere, but with the exception of a few, the process starts for me at the combine. I am looking for numbers relative to the historical numbers of like position players and looking for the standouts in the class. After I have an interest list, I will go back between the combine and NFL draft to do a more indepth analysis of the players college career to the extent I can.

 

Don't misunderstand what I am saying, I don't use the combine to finalize my rankings but rather as an initial weeding effort. This absolutely means I am going to miss a ton of good football players, but I have a limited scope of knowledge regarding scouting anyway and am only willing to devote so much time to the process in any case. It does mean that the pool of players I am spending time looking at are more likely the elite athletes which of course does not necessarily make them good football players.

 

In addition to using the combine numbers as a basis for further evaluation I probably weight the combine outcomes much higher than most. I think the way that guys prepare for this part of their job interview is an extremely an important tell on their work habits as well as their athleticism. I really like the guys who are risers going into the NFL draft because they surprise a bit with their numbers on the positive side and then when draftniks go back and look at the tape the signs they could be a good player were there but something about situation held them back from standing out.

 

Of course I really enjoy hearing from anybody else on this board or others who has the time to watch college football and is willing to share their thoughts because it gives me a completely seperate prospect list to evaluate. I can't wait for MFM to start solidifying his list of prospects going into the NFL draft.

[madd futher mucker 36]

 

Of course I really enjoy hearing from anybody else on this board or others who has the time to watch college football and is willing to share their thoughts because it gives me a completely seperate prospect list to evaluate. I can't wait for MFM to start solidifying his list of prospects going into the NFL draft.

 

Between an illness that put me on my ass for over a week and then the cruise with my wife, I am well over two weeks behind my normal schedule. I have had a very rough time ranking for the WR and RB positions (The only two positions that really matter to me this year personally, because I have not done anywhere near the quantity or quality of study I've done in the last few years on the rookie class, and i refuse to dummy up some crap that I can't be proud of just for the sake of putting something on this board.

 

Only a couple things I know for sure:

1. I won't be buying Waldman's RSP before I do my own homework, because I really like to have my own thoughts on paper first and then comparing my thinking to his. I value his thinking even more than Mike Mayocks's when it comes to rookies, and I think I'm improving my powers of observation because, last year for sure, I was surprised how often our thinking agreed on many individual players. But I'll honestly tell you that I don't (and can't - I have a full time business to run and fantasy football is just a hobby to me) do even 20% of the job that Matt does.

2. Speaking of Mayock, one thing I agree with him for sure on this year is that the RB class begins with Lacy at the top, and to me it isn't even close. But after Lacy, there is a whole group of RBs that are viable if their situation breaks right. I'm not in love with any of them, but i feel that they do represent a pretty deep and solid RB class.

3. Similarly, the WR class is also surprisingly strong. While I see three distinct tiers here, Im struggling to nail down any sort of real order of preference among my top 5, much less find any clarity on my lower tiers.

4. I'm usually not much influenced by the combine results anyway, so I'll probably just record the event for later viewing and spend my next weekend getting caught up on watching some more prospect game had highlight video.

 

So until i do some more study, and get things more sorted out in my own mind, I'll let Kopy and others take the lead with their observations of the rookie class. But you can be assured that I WILL share some strong opinions on most of the rookie skill position prospects sometime before the NFL draft.

[Kopy 491]

Between an illness that put me on my ass for over a week and then the cruise with my wife, I am well over two weeks behind my normal schedule. I have had a very rough time ranking for the WR and RB positions (The only two positions that really matter to me this year personally, because I have not done anywhere near the quantity or quality of study I've done in the last few years on the rookie class, and i refuse to dummy up some crap that I can't be proud of just for the sake of putting something on this board.

 

Only a couple things I know for sure:

1. I won't be buying Waldman's RSP before I do my own homework, because I really like to have my own thoughts on paper first and then comparing my thinking to his. I value his thinking even more than Mike Mayocks's when it comes to rookies, and I think I'm improving my powers of observation because, last year for sure, I was surprised how often our thinking agreed on many individual players. But I'll honestly tell you that I don't (and can't - I have a full time business to run and fantasy football is just a hobby to me) do even 20% of the job that Matt does.

2. Speaking of Mayock, one thing I agree with him for sure on this year is that the RB class begins with Lacy at the top, and to me it isn't even close. But after Lacy, there is a whole group of RBs that are viable if their situation breaks right. I'm not in love with any of them, but i feel that they do represent a pretty deep and solid RB class.

3. Similarly, the WR class is also surprisingly strong. While I see three distinct tiers here, Im struggling to nail down any sort of real order of preference among my top 5, much less find any clarity on my lower tiers.

4. I'm usually not much influenced by the combine results anyway, so I'll probably just record the event for later viewing and spend my next weekend getting caught up on watching some more prospect game had highlight video.

 

So until i do some more study, and get things more sorted out in my own mind, I'll let Kopy and others take the lead with their observations of the rookie class. But you can be assured that I WILL share some strong opinions on most of the rookie skill position prospects sometime before the NFL draft.

You definitly hit the nail on the head here. The complete lack of studs is a drawback, and does make tiering harder this year. But for depth, and potential purposes, with so many kids being close together. It is turning out kind of fun to try and rank them. I think it's really going to come down to our own individual preferences, and our own gut feelings at RB and WR this year more than ever. For me this is kind of fun, and makes you feel like a real GM for the rookie drafts.

[lesjroza 70]

Tavon Austin 4.25, WOW!

 

Yes, he is slight in build but can you hurt him if you can't catch him?

 

Have to bump the ST/D of the team that drafts him at the very least and if he goes to the right situation he could be in the top half of the 1st round of some rookie drafts.

 

Patterson did enough to cause guys (maybe me) to take the chance that he can turn into an elite WR in a few years and if he ends up in the right situation he could end up as the 1st WR off the board in some rookie drafts based on his upside potential.

 

I am REALLY bummed Lacey did not run. Speed was my question mark holding him back from a shoe-in 1st overall rank and it was important for me to confirm he had enough because I think it is a question mark. I know he will run at his Pro Day but it's not a level playing field for comparison to this year's field or my past athlete numbers, very disappointed but I don't have the #1 pick anywhere anyway so I guess it only really hurts me if he ends up an option for me later.

[boshek95 0]

Yeah, Austin and Patterson are now firmly in the mix as the top WR prospect (fantasy/dynasty), along with Allen.

 

It is interesting that Allen has the size and polish to his game but maybe lacks that elite speed. Austin has the elite speed and enough polish to his game but is small. And Patterson has the size and speed you want to see but lacks polish right now. -They all have two out of three of size, speed and polish. Landing spot might be the deciding factor ultimately, even though I am usually a talent over situation guy.

[lesjroza 70]

In the RB class Knile Davis may come out of nowhere based on his combine. Sort of, he actually had flashed brilliantly at times in his college career but has been bothered by injuries the last couple of years. Depending on his NFL draft slot and landing spot he is actually in my personal consideration at #2 overall now along with MANY others.

Crazy talk I know, but RBs are soooooo valuable in dynasty and obviously alot has to go right from here to have that happen, but I see the path. 2nd round to Atlanta for instance. I love this time of year!

 

 

.....and I already liked Christine Michael, on the field anyway, who has done nothing to disuade me at this point.

 

Who is this Ford?

 

Still waiting on the 3 cone which is very important in my personal ranks for the combine RBs.

[lesjroza 70]

After inputting the 3-cone and short shuttle RBs who will definitely move up in my rankings are Christine Michael, Leveon Bell? (have to do more work), Knile Davis and Zac Stacey (Kopy will be happy, or maybe not!) RBs who MAY move down, Graham (something looks off), Gillislee (liked him a bit before these numbers).

 

Really want to hear more about peoples thoughts on Michael Ford. His measurables indicate a near elite athlete in my ranking system.

 

Again, with my process I don't use the numbers to indicate good football players but can be indicative of special athletic ability which spurs more work on my part.

 

Some guys will just fall off my board and I will resign myself to miss on some hard working, smart football players.

[boshek95 0]

In the RB class Knile Davis may come out of nowhere based on his combine. Sort of, he actually had flashed brilliantly at times in his college career but has been bothered by injuries the last couple of years. Depending on his NFL draft slot and landing spot he is actually in my personal consideration at #2 overall now along with MANY others.

Crazy talk I know, but RBs are soooooo valuable in dynasty and obviously alot has to go right from here to have that happen, but I see the path. 2nd round to Atlanta for instance. I love this time of year!

 

 

.....and I already liked Christine Michael, on the field anyway, who has done nothing to disuade me at this point.

 

Who is this Ford?

 

Still waiting on the 3 cone which is very important in my personal ranks for the combine RBs.

 

Yeah, I am one that always cringes when workout warriors that dominate the combine get talked about (or even drafted) as something far better than their game tape shows. Knile Davis seems to be a different story though (as you pointed out)... since he has produced exceptionally well against major competition when fully healthy. -I think the combine may have potentially boosted his NFL (and dynasty) draft stock considerably.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Definitely not a believer in re-evaluating too much based on faster-than-expected 40 times for several reasons, especially at the RB position. I spent most of my time watching player game video this weekend and almost no time actually watching the combine. But I did have it on in the background, because I like listening to Mayock, and I did take note of the results.

 

I'm a bit concerned with finding out what happened to Ray Graham. Something was not right. He didn't have near the explosion at the combine that he showed at the Senior Bowl. The guys with the really fast times (Knile Davis, Tav Austin, Marquise Goodwin) didn't move up my preliminary rankings all that much. Davis has straight line speed and doesn't play as fast as his 40 time, and I already knew that Austin and Goodwin have world class speed, so what was new?

 

Not much has changed on my preliminary top rankings - Here's a sneak preview:

 

QBs:

Geno Smith

E J Manuel

 

RBs:

Eddie Lacy

 

Giovani Bernard

Jonathan Franklin

 

WRs:

DeAndre Hopkins

Marcus Wheaton

Quinton Patton

 

Justin Hunter

Cordarrelle Patterson

 

TEs:

Tyler Eifert

Zach Ertz

 

BTW, I'm not really very high on Christine Michael either - he's never really played up to his measurables - I pretty much expect him to be this year's Roy Helu type tease in the NFL.

[Kopy 491]

My early thoughts on some guys.

Guys that I was questionable on, and weren't sure about did absolutely nothing to impress me.

This is the underwear Olympics, your chance to be better than what you are.

Spencer Ware

Jawan Jamison

Joseph Randle

Ray Graham

 

All looked not good enough to make my team.

Stepfan Taylor is a guy I was very high on. Yes I knew he was slow, but

Holy cow. I still think highly of him. The kid is a pure baller. But someone I would rather pick up as a waiver wire type guy, if I had an extra spot.

 

Christine Michaels looked very good. I just wouldn't personally draft him. I believe him to be a highly susceptible character. However, I could fully see why someone would be very high on him. And I can't argue that fact other than my gut. (Bell too for that matter. I'm not feeling it with him. But I know people are real high on him. He did have a good showing also)

 

Knile Davis looked terrific. I didn't even have him on my watch list because of his injuries. And it would come down to what team drafts him, whether or not I would draft him. But damn did he look good.

 

Zac Stacy isn't my sleeper anymore. He's firmly implanted on my draft list, and target list. He did what I was hoping Taylor would've done.

 

At TE. Eiffort looked like everything I was told about and read.

WR. Hopkins stays as my #1 target, draft team/situation wouldn't matter to me.

 

I'm hoping Keenan Allen has a pro day, and looks healthy. That would keep him at my #2. But this class is very deep, and has a tone of upside. It'll really shape up after the draft, but it's hard to argue against anyone whole values someone else more.

 

Bottom line of my RB cliff notes.

Biggest loser on my list.

Stepfan Taylor. The guy really plummeted for me.

Biggest riser.

Kniles Davis. Wasn't even a consideration, and is now being written down. (Trust me, this is a big rise for me)

Jonathan Franklin, is still my #1 RB. I just hope by hook or crook I'm in a position to draft him.

Zac Stacy goes from sleeper candidate to a guy I'm gonna highly tout as an NFL runningback.

[lesjroza 70]

I'd love to get some back and forth going on all these prospects and I'm going to comment on MFM's and Kopy's comments as I have time, I am of the opinion that the friction between differing opinions is where true learning lies.

 

 

MFM

 

I'm a bit concerned with finding out what happened to Ray Graham. Something was not right. He didn't have near the explosion at the combine that he showed at the Senior Bowl. The guys with the really fast times (Knile Davis, Tav Austin, Marquise Goodwin) didn't move up my preliminary rankings all that much. Davis has straight line speed and doesn't play as fast as his 40 time, and I already knew that Austin and Goodwin have world class speed, so what was new?

 

Graham- I noted the same above although I didn't think he was that explosive at the Senior Bowl and though I like his running style he has fallen completely off my board at this point. I would love to hear if something was wrong with him physically but that would be a case where he should not have participated in the drills. My fear is that guys like Lacey do not participate in drills due to agents advice (rather than a true injury) because the time they would likely run could only detract from their draft stock. Guys like Graham do not have the same top notch advisors and it may have really cost the kid big-time. He could be exactly the type of tough, smart, hard working football player that my system whiffs on but it is what it is for now.

 

Knile Davis, Austin, Goodwin and 40 times- The 40 times get the headlines because everybody can relate to and visualize what it looks like. Most athletically inclined have probably run a 40 themselves and know their best time and most with even a bit of interest have an idea of where a 40 time is relative to what is considered fast.

 

While I know you weren't referring to anything I had said about 40 times I want to make sure there is no misunderstanding.

 

While 40 times are an input in my system they give very little indication of where a final combine rank of a prospect may lie. By itself a 40 time, it would be akin to the ingredient "Sugar" in light of the final product "Bread" for me. Not even the straw that stirs the drink. Speed score would be a TINY BIT more indicative and my preferred number when talking about speed and most probably know this number as well, it refers to speed in relation to size. Speed score is the final rating for me as a RAW speed number but in itself is very 1 dimensional. Speed score is not even the top weighted timed number for me in the RB category at the combine. I have mentioned before that the 3 cone drill is important in my system and I particularly use it in combo with the short shuttle. The combo of the 2 numbers gives me another ingredient along with speed score and it is termed agility score by PFF but I don't know if that is where it originated. For the last couple of years PFF has had a series of articles showing a strong correlation between agility score and "vision yards" which is a category they track along with every play that they chart. Interestingly, the agility score has a positive correlation to pass catching skills as well. This study has only been done in-depth over a period of the last couple of years, so I'm not sure the sample size is sufficient to make it a standard anywhere but I think enough of the potential that I have it as an important weight. I like to look at the agility score number relative to other athletes not only within the year's class but also relative to past elite postional players. In addition to weighting pretty heavily for the RB position I have taken it a step further than PFF and I use the number (less the 3 cone) for rating WRs I consider to be likely to play in the slot. The combo of speed score and agility score are more akin to the "Flour" in the "Bread" of the RB score and maybe the "Yeast" of my slot WR score

 

Knile Davis' moved up in my ranking due to far more than his 40 time. His speed score is outstanding. His agility may also be be better than you think looking at his numbers. While his timed ability to change direction is not outstanding relative to historic elite RBs it is very good for his size/speed and very good relative to the much of this class including Franklin for instance who is smaller. There are some elite times in some of the categories in this class but I'm not giving everything away here as I know there are eyes watching at all times. Anybody who wants to do the homework can figure out part of my combine rank system by using the formula above but I don't mind sharing because I wanted to explain that my view is not as shallow as a 40 time and I know 99% of guys in my leagues will not put in the time even if they think there might be value in doing so.

 

Goodwin is not someone who my system ranks highly at all.

 

Austin's numbers across the board are HISTORICALLY ELITE which is all I'm going to say about him.

Kopy

 

Zac Stacy isn't my sleeper anymore. He's firmly implanted on my draft list, and target list. He did what I was hoping Taylor would've done.

 

Agree completely and I will be watching his landing spot closely. Props to you for picking him out.

 

 

That's all I have time for now. I'll be back!

[lesjroza 70]

Rotoworld ESPN link now quoting Knile Davis' speed score the 2nd highest EVAH

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/8467/knile-davis

 

 

Note that my comments in the post above were published first! I was not quoting anyone else. LOL

 

 

"Arkansas RB Knile Davis' "Speed Score" of 124.5 is the second highest ever recorded by Football Outsiders based on player build and speed.

 

The "Speed Score" uses a mathematical formula in an attempt to measure speed given size. Speed Score has plenty of historical flaws, but has accurately predicted busts like Knowshon Moreno while forecasting Chris Johnson and Brandon Jacobs' success. The all-time leader in "Speed Score" is current Broncos RB Mario Fannin (125.5), who went undrafted out of Auburn and has done nothing in the NFL. Nevertheless, Davis has a special speed-size combination and will be a mid- to late-round pick to monitor in the 2013 preseason."

I am not pumping anybody based on the workouts, for me it is an indication of a guy to do more work on and color to be drawn on work I have already done.

 

I noted the Fannin reference and one thing I'm sure of is that Beernuts is going to have a close eye on wherever Davis ends up as the most talented RB on that roster.

 

That last was a bit of inside baseball but some on the board will get it.

[lesjroza 70]

Also they say Fannin is the all-time NFL leader in speed score but I will have to assume they mean of players tested at the combine. The highest historical NFL speed score that I am aware of is Bo Jackson which was MUCH higher at 149.5.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Rotoworld ESPN link now quoting Knile Davis' speed score the 2nd highest EVAH

 

"Arkansas RB Knile Davis' "Speed Score" of 124.5 is the second highest ever recorded by Football Outsiders based on player build and speed.

 

 

I am not pumping anybody based on the workouts, for me it is an indication of a guy to do more work on and color to be drawn on work I have already done.

 

 

I agree - Knile Davis' 40 speed made me go back and re-evaluate my initial ranking of Davis, who was on my board anyway (albeit just barely) based on the player he was prior to his last injury. Davis was clearly not the same player in his 2012 season that he was in his amazing 2010 season. That year he ran for 1322 yds and 13 TDs with several runs where often he broke through an open hole for extremely long gains. 2010 was followed by a 2011 season which was completely lost to his ankle injury. His performance at the combine may be an indicator he is now finally back at 100%.

 

Davis is essentially a power back who runs with a higher than optimum pad level and lacks short area lateral quickness. His upright running style gives him a long stride that contributes to his straight line speed, but it can significantly reduce a runner's short area agility. So his combine result is a good thing because it indicates he has regained his lost explosion or burst. But bear in mind that straight line speed by itself is the most highly over-rated measure of RB functionality, especially for the NFL.

 

We need to understand that much of his 2010 college yardage would have been largely negated by equally fast NFL corners. Davis' speed is not the same thing as Chris Johnson speed. Johnson had both short area quickness, great vision AND straight line speed. A review of Davis' 2010 film shows that he was deadly through an open hole, but was deficient when it came to making tacklers miss. He will function best in a one-cut system behind a very good offensive line.

 

In today's NFL, pad level, instincts, vision and short area lateral quickness are far more important than 40 times (which would have been eliminated from the Combine as an evaluation tool long ago were it not for the huge popularity of the event with fans and "Combine junkies").

 

Knile Davis DID make himself a ton of money with his Combine performance, because now he probably checks out medically, and it would not surprise me if he goes from a probable UDFA to someone who gets drafted somewhere between the lower half of the second to maybe round 5.

 

That said, Davis also still presents a significant injury risk. His history of ankle injuries dates back to two ankle injuries in his high school days, and his pad level is not conducive to avoiding punishment.

 

I'll move him up based on his Combine performance, but only a few slots.

[lesjroza 70]

"Davis is essentially a power back who runs with a higher than optimum pad level and lacks short area lateral quickness. His upright running style gives him a long stride that contributes to his straight line speed, but it can significantly reduce a runner's short area agility. So his combine result is a good thing because it indicates he has regained his lost explosion or burst. But bear in mind that straight line speed by itself is the most highly over-rated measure of RB functionality, especially for the NFL."

 

I dont doubt your assesment of Davis as a runner based on tape and I have yet to look at any. My assesment of combine numbers is not based on straight line speed though which I can't stress enough. I know that you know the 3 cone dril and 20 yard shuttle are about change of direction skills, lateral movement, balance, and burst while doing so. That is the reson they are weighted pretty high in my combine rank for RB.

 

I'm not trying to push Knile Davis just explaining why he popped up for me and using his example since we are talking about him.

 

20 yard shuttle 3-cone drill "Agility score"

Knile Davis 4.38 6.96 11.34

Johnathan Franklin 4.31 6.89 11.20

 

 

 

Neither time is elite. A really good agility score would be below 11. Both of above scores are very acceptable but Davis' score is really good for his size and within the same range as Franklin who is much smaller. If Davis is indeed a power back it is not because he is not capable of change of direction and lateral quickness.

 

For reference sake here are a couple of strong times Ray Rice 4.20 6.65 10.85

of NFL Pros Doug Martin 4.16 6.79 10.95

 

It is not necessary to have a good agility score to be a good RB. If memory serves AP and Lynch are 2 who did not and I would take them any day, it just depends on what your game is, their game is obviously power and in APs case speed as well.

 

If Davis made some money at the combine it was not entirely on his 40 but on the whole picture which was very solid from the timed events to the workout drills, vertical jump, and bench press.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Great discussion, les.

 

We come at this thing from two different viewpoints. You put more emphasis on the combine out of necessity because of your lack of time or interest in watching video of the players. Obviously 20 yd shuttle and 3 cone times are most important to you.

 

On the other hand, I enjoy watching as much football video as my time allows me to (and if you asked my wife and son, they would say that I watch MORE football than my time allows for). So the Combine is a much lower priority.

 

However the six things that are most important to me about the combine are: 1 ) Height/Weight ratio, also known as Body Mass index (BMI) which within limits and combined with other factors has at least some degree of predictive value as to NFL success at RB and WR positions; 2 ) height plus arm length in WRs which gives me a calculation of total catch radius; 3 ) hand size for all skill positions (I downgrade for hand sizes 9" or less and give a slight uptick for hand sizes of greater than 9 1/2"); 4 ) position drills which I watch for technique and soft hands in WRs; 5 ) vertical leap, which gives me the best idea of true leg explosion; and 6 ) anything i can pick up from Mayock commentary and what leaks out about player interviews after the combine is over (I downgraded Cordarrelle Patterson just a little for this). On the other hand I don't really care much at all about the 225 press, the 40 yard dash or the 3 cone and shuttle results. I will admit that the 3-cone and shuttle may have minor predictive value in evaluating WRs, but they can't replace actually watching a WR make his cuts going through various pass patterns.

 

The reasons I pay little attention to 3 cone and shuttle with RBs is: first, they can be improved through pre-combine practice, and secondly, since they involve pre-measured and pre-determined changes of direction, they do not have anything to do with spontaneous adjustments based on vision and short-area lateral quickness.

 

Especially at RB, I'm most interested in the decisiveness and quickness of his adjustments, either instinctively or reactively withing a maximum of a three yard by three yard window. Usually these movements are rapid changes from forward or stop to vertical and back to forward with quick acceleration. These don't have to be "ankle breaking" jump cuts or spin moves. Even power backs can make subtle quick adjustments that are just enough to make themselves skinny in the hole.

 

But that kind of short area quickness can only be observed through watching RBs move in game situations. It cannot come even close to being replicated through the combine drills you rely on. Similarly, with WRs I'm interested more in how he sells his cuts, how quickly he can get out of his breaks at different angles to get separation. With some practice, watching film study is a much more accurate indicator of success, even though it is a non-quantitative measure.

 

 

A guy like Tavon Austin, who easily can surpass every quickness test devised by man including my eye test on watching game film, represents a special situation. He was easily the most explosive guy at the Combine regardless of his shuttle result or 3 cone (he did not compete in this). But he is 5' 8 1/2" and only 174 lbs. Less than half of the coaches in the NFL will even know how to use him to maximize his ability and most will be afraid to even give him enough playing time for him to have significant fantasy impact. He has to get drafted into just the right situation to have significant WR value other than as a return guy. You must usually send him in motion, because if you line him up stationary at the LOS he will probably have trouble getting a clean break.

 

The closest comparison to Austin might just be Percy Harvin or Randall Cobb, but even they are about 2 inches taller and 10# heavier.

I had him high on my WR rankings even before the Combine, because the guy is a football player who happens to be a world class track athlete - so what he did at the Combine didn't move him at all in my early rankings. So he's a special player who needs to go to a special situation, and because of that he can't make my pre-draft top 5. I'll take the slightly less quick, but long catch radius guys first.

[Kopy 491]

I just read Keenan Allen will hold his pro day April 9.

I hope he has a real QB throw him the ball.

[Kopy 491]

Their is a post combine, pre draft mock going on on another site that I frequent. Just regular posters like us, and it looks like the first 3 picks are:

Lacy

Patterson

Bernard

[madd futher mucker 36]

Both Patterson and Bernard are high risk, high reward picks. I've downgraded Patterson after some more video review of him last night. Unlike your man Stacy (who I'm very high on) Bernard's legs stop on contact. He gets almost never gets 'effort yards'. Frankly, I'd rather have Ronnie Hillman, who is as dynamic a runner as Bernard, but at least makes an effort to get thoes extra tough yards.

 

I have a love/hate relationship with Patterson's game. There's nobody his size who can make the open field cuts that this guy can. He's incredible. On the other hand, he freelances virtually all the time as a route runner. His QB willl always be guessing where he is because I can guarantee he won't be where he's supposed to be. He could be a QB's nightmare and a coach killer.

[Kopy 491]

Both Patterson and Bernard are high risk, high reward picks. I've downgraded Patterson after some more video review of him last night. Unlike your man Stacy (who I'm very high on) Bernard's legs stop on contact. He gets almost never gets 'effort yards'. Frankly, I'd rather have Ronnie Hillman, who is as dynamic a runner as Bernard, but at least makes an effort to get thoes extra tough yards.

 

I have a love/hate relationship with Patterson's game. There's nobody his size who can make the open field cuts that this guy can. He's incredible. On the other hand, he freelances virtually all the time as a route runner. His QB willl always be guessing where he is because I can guarantee he won't be where he's supposed to be. He could be a QB's nightmare and a coach killer.

 

Several years ago. I pulled a Bill Belichick and traded alot of draft picks in a start up dynasty 2010. Everyone wanted to bet the futures for the now, and I basically started my daft in the 5th round. I also traded draft picks in 2011, to load up for 2012 and 2013 picks. I cashed those picks in last year, (I had 6; 2nd rounders) and think I nailed 5 out of my 6 picks I had in the top 17. Now again this year, I have 5 first rounders (this will finish off those initial deals). Those picks start with numbers 4 and 5. Jist of my story is, I'd be fine with those 3 guys going in the top 3 (I've also seen Jason Hunter's name get thrown in there too.) It means my guys would fall to me in various slots I have.

[Kopy 491]

My last post got me thinking. That startup was alot of fun.

This is a 12 team, 24 man (3 I.R. also) player league. with a 3 round rookie draft every year.

 

After 5 full rounds of the draft (This is 2010). I only had 1 player, and no 2011 draft picks. 2012 and 2013 3rd rounders gone too. If anyone is wondering. Yes, we have to pay to trade future picks. So I started this league out by paying my first 4 years league fees. We're a pretty close nit group, so I was O.K with this.

 

After 5 full rounds of a start up dynasty. I had Peyton Manning at QB, and no 2011 draft picks. But I did have 6 - 2012 second rounders and 5 2013 first rounders.

Holy cow was this a different way of doing things.

[Hawkfin 32]

Both Patterson and Bernard are high risk, high reward picks. I've downgraded Patterson after some more video review of him last night. Unlike your man Stacy (who I'm very high on) Bernard's legs stop on contact. He gets almost never gets 'effort yards'. Frankly, I'd rather have Ronnie Hillman, who is as dynamic a runner as Bernard, but at least makes an effort to get thoes extra tough yards.

 

I have a love/hate relationship with Patterson's game. There's nobody his size who can make the open field cuts that this guy can. He's incredible. On the other hand, he freelances virtually all the time as a route runner. His QB willl always be guessing where he is because I can guarantee he won't be where he's supposed to be. He could be a QB's nightmare and a coach killer.

I was SUPER high on Patterson and I still kind of am. I need to do way more research.

However, I may agree with you on this. During the combine, he looked confused on 2 drills. He forgot to run up the field on one, and I think he was not prepared on another drill. He was slow to what was being asked of him. This seems to go hand in hand with what you saw of him as a route runner?

 

I'm wondering if this could be a huge issue. (i.e. slow and smarts not up to par)

However, I think worse case he'll be a late bloomer I bet.

 

Might take 3 years before it clicks like a lot of the wides in the NFL.

Not sure I want that as the Hawks #1 pick. But, he's got every tool to be great though. Love the speed and size and seperation.

 

I'm starting to look at Woods/USC more and more. I like him.

Austin of course impressed. He will make a perfect slot and burner. Not sure that's what the Hawks need though. Really want a tall wide.

 

I still have a lot of tape I want to look at. I came away concerned about Patterson though. Wheaton pro day will be interesting to see where he fits in.

[madd futher mucker 36]

If you only watch highlight video of Patterson, you'd draft him with your 1st pick, maybe even ahead of Lacy. But if you watch full game footage, the red flags go up all over the place. Id say he's the epitome of a boom-bust pick. Either a perennial pro bowl type career or a complete wash out. I'd put my money on the latter and give 2 to 1 odds... Give me Hawkins (who might just be the second coming of Reggie Wayne, Marcus Wheaton (who reminds of a cross between Kendall Wright and Randall Cobb) or a steady eddie type like Quinton Patton. Patton may never be your top flight WR1, but he will very likely be a productive WR2 at the next level.

 

Same can be said of Bernard. His highlight footage wowed me; It was all the plays in regular full game video where he didn't even try to fight for extra yardage that turned me off. I'm starting to see him more as only a 3rd down back, and if I'm picking in the 1st 3 slots, I'm gonna want a guy like Doug Martin that can be a 3 down back. The closest thing after Lacy just might be Joseph Franklin, who i don't see as an elite RB. Zac Stacy is starting to grow on me for that very same reason, but i don't see quite the speed (that 4.55 doesn't show up on much game film) or the balance when hit laterally to say he's the answer. But he may be just about as good as anyone other than Lacy in this class.

[Hawkfin 32]

If you only watch highlight video of Patterson, you'd draft him with your 1st pick, maybe even ahead of Lacy. But if you watch full game footage, the red flags go up all over the place. Id say he's the epitome of a boom-bust pick. Either a perennial pro bowl type career or a complete wash out. I'd put my money on the latter and give 2 to 1 odds... Give me Hawkins (who might just be the second coming of Reggie Wayne, Marcus Wheaton (who reminds of a cross between Kendall Wright and Randall Cobb) or a steady eddie type like Quinton Patton. Patton may never be your top flight WR1, but he will very likely be a productive WR2 at the next level.

 

Same can be said of Bernard. His highlight footage wowed me; It was all the plays in regular full game video where he didn't even try to fight for extra yardage that turned me off. I'm starting to see him more as only a 3rd down back, and if I'm picking in the 1st 3 slots, I'm gonna want a guy like Doug Martin that can be a 3 down back. The closest thing after Lacy just might be Joseph Franklin, who i don't see as an elite RB. Zac Stacy is starting to grow on me for that very same reason, but i don't see quite the speed (that 4.55 doesn't show up on much game film) or the balance when hit laterally to say he's the answer. But he may be just about as good as anyone other than Lacy in this class.

Yeah, that's just it. I have not done my research enough yet to watch full games. Pretty much just highlight video's. So that's what I meant, that I need to study a whole lot more still. Just the measurables were there with big play ability and speed.

I did notice he also catches everything in the body. That is another concern. Although he did ok on the pass catching drills at the combine so that could flip that. There's a lot more I want to study with this guy. Hopefully this weekend.

 

I'm interested in watching Hawkins as you pointed out! He looked good in my limited views of him so far. Seems like he did well at the combine too. I'll remember that name since your so high on him, thanks.

 

My first views of Wheaten I was kind of turned off a bit. He looked ok, but seemed like something lacked.

 

Still so early for me in the process.

[madd futher mucker 36]

 

 

I'm interested in watching Hawkins as you pointed out! He looked good in my limited views of him so far. Seems like he did well at the combine too. I'll remember that name since your so high on him, thanks.

 

 

Still so early for me in the process.

 

It was maybe a typo, or maybe i was thinking of your screen name when I responded to your post (I grow old), but i was referring to DeAndre Hopkins, not Hawkins. Hawkins was so 2008...LOL

 

BTW, I just read Russ Lande's rave about Giovani Bernard. I've never found Lande to be more than just another voice when it comes to rookie talent. I'm personally not buying into the Ray Rice Comparison at all.

[madd futher mucker 36]

If you only watch highlight video of Patterson, you'd draft him with your 1st pick, maybe even ahead of Lacy. But if you watch full game footage, the red flags go up all over the place. Id say he's the epitome of a boom-bust pick. Either a perennial pro bowl type career or a complete wash out. I'd put my money on the latter and give 2 to 1 odds... Give me Hawkins (who might just be the second coming of Reggie Wayne, Marcus Wheaton (who reminds of a cross between Kendall Wright and Randall Cobb) or a steady eddie type like Quinton Patton. Patton may never be your top flight WR1, but he will very likely be a productive WR2 at the next level.

 

Same can be said of Bernard. His highlight footage wowed me; It was all the plays in regular full game video where he didn't even try to fight for extra yardage that turned me off. I'm starting to see him more as only a 3rd down back, and if I'm picking in the 1st 3 slots, I'm gonna want a guy like Doug Martin that can be a 3 down back. The closest thing after Lacy just might be Joseph Franklin, who i don't see as an elite RB. Zac Stacy is starting to grow on me for that very same reason, but i don't see quite the speed (that 4.55 doesn't show up on much game film) or the balance when hit laterally to say he's the answer. But he may be just about as good as anyone other than Lacy in this class.

 

OK I'l probably make it even money as to which side he will fall on. The truth is, I just can't get the highlight video out of my mind. The guy has insane talent and could be better than any of them. BUT........

 

Just don't expect him to "get it" for about two more years....if ever. Still, for those who want to swing for the fences, I sure couldn't blame you if you picked him at 1.02 in your rookie draft.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'm new to dynasty, and traded away basically all my rookie picks this year, but this is an excellent thread.

 

P.S. Anyone have some deep sleepers to possibly consider at 4.2?

[madd futher mucker 36]

I've got three of them at the WR position and one RB:

 

Marquis Wilson, 6' 2 1/2" Washington State - He could perhaps have been a second round guy but he quit the Cougars early in the season and then accused new Coach Mike Leach (who himself got fired from Texas Tech after allegations of player mistreatment). Wilson recanted his allegation. Because of this incident, he's now flying under the radar some and could drop to 4.02 in a rookie draft.

 

Justin Brown, Oklahoma - This 6' 3" 207 transfer from Penn State could make a very nice possession receiver.

 

Uzoma Nwachukwu, Texas A&M - 5'11" 198, is a quick, precise route runner who will catch balls in traffic and an excellent downfield blocker. He'll get drafted and maybe be a pleasant surprise. I'll guarantee that he'll be there at 4.02 and who wouldn't want a player on their team named Uzoma Nwachukwu?

 

I could see Utah State's Kerwynn Williams, a 5' 9" 195 bundle of speed and quicks getting lost in the sea of 3rd tier RBs and make it down to 4.02. i'm a believer in the kid as a guy to take a chance on late in your rookie draft.

[Hawkfin 32]

OK I'l probably make it even money as to which side he will fall on. The truth is, I just can't get the highlight video out of my mind. The guy has insane talent and could be better than any of them. BUT........

 

Just don't expect him to "get it" for about two more years....if ever. Still, for those who want to swing for the fences, I sure couldn't blame you if you picked him at 1.02 in your rookie draft.

Yeah, Patterson's video is hard to let go out of my mind. He has the "chance" to become elite with his size and speed and big play ability. He also looks like a man among boys out there and he did tear up records in the small school he came from before. He has great vision when he runs too. He'll for sure be a good kick returner worse case. Maybe a late bloomer too, depending on his mind and route running. I see a few scary signs with that.

But, he's still young and raw to his defense.

 

That size and big play though is the main reason why I see it as a nice pick for the Hawks in the late 1st round IF he's even there still.

However, 1.2 seems like it would be early in a rookie draft. I'm sure some RB's would fit nicely there instead. Way to early to think about that though, until I see where guy's get placed and used.

I'm more thinking in terms of ranking the wides for draft purposes first.

 

But, I can see a few negatives with Patterson too. More research needs to be done.

yeah, I was on the same page as you with Hopkins. I knew who u meant, and copied over the same mistake.

 

My brother is coming over this weekend, so we will be going over everything and looking at a ton of video and full research. Should be fun. We always pretend we are scouts. haha.

It's fun and good for our F.F. leagues anyway. Also gives us "hope guy's" for our team in the NFL draft.

(In fact, R. Wilson was on our short list of ONLY 4 QB's we wanted (Not including Luck and RG3. It was cool to actually get him and watch it turn out too.

 

 

I should have a whole lot more knowledge on guy's after this weekend!

Enjoy

[Mike FF Today 608]

I just posted Tony's Combine Review of Quarterbacks and Running Backs. He'll do a similar review for the WRs and TEs.

[Patmos 2]

"I'm a bit concerned with finding out what happened to Ray Graham. Something was not right. He didn't have near the explosion at the combine that he showed at the Senior Bowl. The guys with the really fast times (Knile Davis, Tav Austin, Marquise Goodwin) didn't move up my preliminary rankings all that much. Davis has straight line speed and doesn't play as fast as his 40 time, and I already knew that Austin and Goodwin have world class speed, so what was new?"

"Graham- I noted the same above although I didn't think he was that explosive at the Senior Bowl and though I like his running style he has fallen completely off my board at this point. I would love to hear if something was wrong with him physically but that would be a case where he should not have participated in the drills. My fear is that guys like Lacey do not participate in drills due to agents advice (rather than a true injury) because the time they would likely run could only detract from their draft stock. Guys like Graham do not have the same top notch advisors and it may have really cost the kid big-time. He could be exactly the type of tough, smart, hard working football player that my system whiffs on but it is what it is for now."

Graham is a year removed from an ACL surgery. In the "old" days, the thinking was that it would take two full years to recover. AP and J. Charles have changed our perception on recovery time. I would consider Graham in the 3rd round of a rookie draft, and plan to put him on taxi for the first year.