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Fumbleweed

*2019 No-Hassle June Mock Analysis*

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Will start on this on Friday...hope to finish it over the weekend at the latest. 

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ICEMAN:

1.01- RB Saquon Barkley, NYG

2.12- WR A.J. Green, Cin. 

3.01- RB Damien Williams, KC

4.12- WR Julian Edelman, NE

5.01- TE Evan Engram, NYG

6.12- RB James White, NE

7.01- WR Courtland Sutton, Den. 

8.12- QB Carson Wentz, Phi. 

9.01- WR Christian Kirk, Ari. 

10.12- RB Ito Smith, Atl. 

11.01- QB Philip Rivers, LAC

12.12- RB Jamaal Williams, GB

13.01- TE Jordan Reed, Was. 

14.12- K Stephen Gostkowski, NE

15.01- D/ST, Houston Texans

16.12- WR Donte Moncrief, Pit. 

Analysis: Having the top pick in a redraft this year gives you an advantage with so few running backs representing "sure things". Barkley is just that and ICE chose to build his team around him with both youth and veterans. The youth came in the form of guys like Damien Williams, Courtland Sutton, and Christian Kirk. Meanwhile, two steadier WRs would be hard to find in the place of A.J. Green and Julian Edelman. The tendency of drafters who possess the #1 overall pick is to go conservative after that initial pick so as not to "screw it up". ICE did that to some extent, but also is hoping for a couple of second-year WRs to step up their games, albeit on teams whose offenses are a work in progress. The selection of Evan Engram came a bit early for me and really put the Giants offense squarely in the role of needing to thrive to make this team great. All in all, ICE's decision to wait on his QBs allowed for depth at other positions, though, and the combination of Wentz/Rivers seems sufficient with respect to giving him average production at that spot. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: I think this team is likely to be competitive no matter what with so many built-in safeguards. However, if one or both of the duo of Courtland Sutton and Christian Kirk take a big step forward, this could be an above average receiving corps to go along with having the most dangerous RB in fantasy football and possibly a borderline #1 in Damien Williams. Speaking of Williams, his ability to be a feature back is still a pretty big question mark, so perhaps his "step forward" is even more crucial than that of Sutton or Kirk. Players like James White and Jamaal Williams have decent floors, but low ceilings and as such, can't be counted on for explosive production more than once during that year. That makes health also an important factor in keeping this team at its finest. 

Favorite Pick: I thought the Edelman pick really steadied the ship after A.J. Green and Williams were taken a little early, in my opinion. Also, with Carson Wentz's injury history, getting a stable backup was imperative and you can't do much better than Philip Rivers to fulfill that role. Finally, the final pick of Moncrief seemed particularly solid considering how many catches are now up for grabs in Pittsburgh. 

Least Favorite Pick: I don't dislike Green, Williams, or Engram as players this season, but I did think each was taken too soon. Further, I don't think Ito Smith will have much value unless Devonta Freeman gets hurt, but maybe that's kind of the point. 

Overall outlook: This team is sort of a "mixed bag" for me, but I love that ICE has given himself to chance to be better than just "good". Williams isn't a special player, per se, but he does play in a special offense and that fact alone may allow him to be the perfect running mate for Barkley as ICE seeks to be the best rushing team in the league. There are some injury-prone guys on this roster and that could certainly derail ICE's championship aspirations. But, if relative health were to hold up, this almost certainly has to be one of the top five teams at year's end. I questioned some of the picks along the way, but looking at the team as a whole at the draft's conclusion leaves me largely optimistic about the chance for success. 

 

Remote Controller:

1.02- RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dal. 

2.11- TE Zach Ertz, Phi. 

3.02- WR Adam Thielen, Min. 

4.11- RB Chris Carson, Sea. 

5.02- WR Sammy Watkins, KC

6.11- WR Robby Anderson, NYJ

7.02- QB Matt Ryan, Atl. 

8.11- RB LeSean McCoy, Buf. 

9,02- WR D.K. Metcalf, Sea. 

10.11- TE Kyle Rudolph, Min. 

11.02- QB Jameis Winston, TB

12.11- RB Jalen Richard, Oak. 

13.02- RB Rex Burkhead, NE 

14.11- WR Parris Campbell, Ind. 

15.02- K Wil Lutz, NO

16.11- D/ST, New Orleans Saints

Analysis: Three teams in this draft were formulated in conjunction with taking a tight end in the second round, and of those three teams, this one came out with the fewest question marks from my perspective. Yes, Sammy Watkins represents annual uncertainty, but if Tyreek Hill were to miss time, Watkins could have a career year. Seattle really found something last season with the league's most frequent rushing attack and Chris Carson looked the part of a guy who has some staying power. All in all, you've got players on this team who are going to get massive "touches" if you will. Ezekiel Elliott could lead the league in that category and as far as WR targets are concerned, few players if any will rival Adam Thielen. And no discussion of touches is complete without mentioning Zach Ertz who caught a whopping 116 passes last season. A couple of late fliers on rookie wide receivers give the team further upside at that position even as depth at RB may be a bit thin. Finally, having two QBs from the scoring frenzied NFC South always represents good value. Further kudos for that. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: I think Elliott and Carson need to stay healthy throughout the season as the trio of McCoy, Richard, and Burkhead don't instill much confidence in Remote being competitive if they're forced into a more prominent role. Also, Watkins and sixth round pick, Robby Anderson could really surprise and along with Ertz & Thielen might make Remote one of league's best teams in terms of receiving production. In the end, though, I think this team is destined for greatness if health holds up. Probably my second favorite team in terms of the projected "starters". But, it's also a team whose depth scares me more than most others. As such, there is plenty of risk, but oh such big reward as well. 

Favorite Pick: Any one of the first seven picks could be deemed as a "favorite". Ertz is such a game changer at TE and was worth the gamble of taking a player at that position so early. Thielen is as steady as they come with the pick shortly thereafter and then it was just one solid pick after another concluding with a great pick at 7.02 in the form of Matt Ryan. Ryan is capable of being a top-3 QB this year and has little downside to wrestle with. 

Least Favorite Pick: Somebody had to pick LeSean McCoy, but I would sure like him as my RB4 better than my RB3. And, I'm not seeing much of a role for Rex Burkhead in New England this season. Again, depth at RB could be a problem for this team. 

Overall outlook: I love this team in spite of some of the noted concerns. They should be the highest scoring team on more than one week's occasion this season and may also score the highest weekly total of the season on a week that Watkins draws a favorable matchup and Elliott has to grind out 30 carries in order for Dallas to win. Metcalf and Campbell are sure to be raw, but both could thrive also on teams in which the #2 WR job is ripe for the taking. Like I said before, if you took a look at this team without knowing that Ertz was taken in the second round, you wouldn't realize it's a TE-centric sort of team (more on that coming soon) and that's a compliment to how this draft unfolded for Remote. 

 

Robb: 

1.03- RB Christian McCaffrey, Car. 

2.10- RB Todd Gurley, LAR

3.03- QB Patrick Mahomes, KC

4.10- WR Kenny Golladay, Det. 

5.03- WR Tyler Lockett, Sea. 

6.10- WR Allen Robinson, Chi. 

7.03- RB Ronald Jones, TB

8.10- WR Corey Davis, Ten. 

9.03- RB Royce Freeman, Den. 

10.10- RB D'Onta Foreman, Hou. 

11.03- QB Cam Newton, Car. 

12.10- D/ST, Chicago Bears

13.03- TE Chris Herndon, NYJ

14.10- WR Josh Gordon, NE

15.03- K Ka'imi Fairbairn, Hou. 

16.10- TE Rob Gronkowski, NE

Analysis: If this draft were held last December, we'd already be handing Robb the trophy. A backfield of Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey would have been unthinkable (in a good way) at that time and Patrick Mahomes in the third round would be considered a massive steal given last year's tidal wave of success. But, this is June. McCaffrey is still stable, but Todd Gurley is anything but and Mahomes is looking at being without his top weapon for part, if not all of 2019. As such, this is a team that could boom or bust pretty easily. The boom is simple: Gurley achieves at least 80% of his 2019 regular season production and in doing so, becomes a second-round steal. In addition, Mahomes proves that he's the true engine of the Kansas City offense and hardly misses a beat with or without Tyreek Hill. The bust is simple, too: Gurley is a constant source of fantasy frustration and the fact that this team has no real star at WR doesn't allow for a Plan B to emerge. In addition, the late selections of Gordon and Gronkowski end up being 100% wasted picks. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: This will be the easiest answer in this entire write-up. I'd like to offer up something obscure, but I won't. Todd Gurley is the key to this team's success. If it turns out that Robb stole Gurley based on unfounded concerns, you could have 2 of the 3 most productive RBs in the whole league on one team. Add in the odds-on best QB and a bunch of wide receivers who at least have to potential to be great in newly minted #1 roles on their respective teams and you've got something great cooking here. Also, Chris Herndon better stay healthy and be a decent producer because he's on an island at the tight end position. Every pick between Rounds 4 and 10 could improve by leaps and bounds this year. Robb will need at least two to make that leap. 

Favorite Pick: I know taking a QB early is not looked upon favorably in "expert" fantasy circles, but Patrick Mahomes is not just any quarterback. Getting him in the third round just seemed a bit ridiculous to me as I thought long and hard about taking him as early as 2.05. Additionally, Robb did what was necessary after taking no WRs in the first three rounds- that is, he loaded up on upside guys moving forward from that point on. 

Least Favorite Pick: Ronald Jones in the early seventh was not a pick that I was fond of. I think that will remain Peyton Barber's job primarily on a team whose RBs don't produce much anyway historically. Also, Gordon and Gronk were clever picks, but also empty potentially if not for something unexpected. 

Overall outlook: Murky. That's what will be said about any team with Gurley until September rolls around. You have to love the potential that this team possesses and as was noted previously, every WR chosen is still on the proper side of the career arc in terms of fantasy potential/production. But, potential means that a flip side exists and with Gurley, that flip side looms large at this point in time. Can this team win a No-Hassle championship? That is an absolute yes and in the end, that's all you can ask for in evaluating how well you did in putting together a team. But, few teams in the league carry more risk and Gurley is the poster child for that to be sure. 

 

Vikings4Ever:

1.04- RB Alvin Kamara, NO

2.09- WR Antonio Brown, Oak. 

3.04- WR T.Y. Hilton, Ind. 

4.09- RB Kenyan Drake, Mia. 

5.04- WR Mike Williams, LAC

6.09- WR Tyreek Hill, KC

7.04- TE Eric Ebron, Ind. 

8.09- RB Darrell Henderson, LAR

9.04- QB Russell Wilson, Sea. 

10.09- RB Peyton Barber, TB

11.04- WR DeSean Jackson, Phi. 

12.09- TE Trey Burton, Chi. 

13.04- QB Kyler Murray, Ari. 

14.09- K Harrison Butker, KC

15.04- D/ST, Baltimore Ravens

16.04- WR Robert Foster, Buf. 

Analysis: Nobody personifies the "wait for a quarterback" strategy while stockpiling talent at RB and WR moreso than Vikings4Ever and this team is simply loaded in the middle of the lineup as a result. Being in the top four in the picking order means you're going to land one of the four "studs" at the RB position this season and it was a bit of a drop in my opinion after Kamara came off the board. Beyond that, Vikes focused on players on good offenses (minus Kenyan Drake) like T.Y. Hilton, Mike Williams, Eric Ebron, and potentially Tyreek Hill. That is a strategy that normally reaps rewards. As for Drake, he may not be on a great offense, but like Peyton Barber later in the draft, he has the potential for volume based on the lack of talent surrounding him at the position. And, how about landing a top-7 QB in the ninth round? Seems to me that waiting for a QB paid off for Vikes in this draft as he still landed a solid one to go along with so many other weapons. Honestly, it's a struggle to find much about this draft that I don't really like. This is a title contender. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Vikes isn't banking on Tyreek Hill being a difference maker this season, but if he were able to play most if not all of the season, it obviously puts this team on another level in terms of talent and explosiveness. It seemed like a worthy gamble given that Hill was fantasy football's top WR in 2018. Beyond that, very little could derail this team seemingly although a meltdown from Antonio Brown cannot be entirely ruled out if Derek Carr can't get the ball to him the way Brown deems appropriate. Finally, there are only four running backs on this roster, so maintaining health at that position really is paramount to reaching full potential. 

Favorite Pick: There were some great bargains obtained by Vikes from my vantage point beginning with Hilton in the third round and continuing on with Wilson in the ninth and then Trey Burton in the twelfth. Alvin Kamara to me, though, may have been the best pick as he's #2 overall on my board and in reality is on a much better offense even than Saquon Barkley. Pair Kamara with so many value picks and you've got exactly what I referred to earlier- a loaded team. 

Least Favorite Pick: The upside of Mike Williams is intriguing, but I do think Vikes might have picked him a tad bit early. Also, it's impossible to say what impact Kyler Murray will have and his selection as a backup QB was a bit of a gamble given that there are no transactions in this league. 

Overall outlook: This is easily one of the favorites to contend from my perspective as has already been noted. Vikes just seemed to have the right guy falling into his lap every time it was his pick. There is some mild concern present about what exists beyond Kamara at the RB position, but Vikes has such talent and depth at WR, he should be able to withstand any problems there. This is sort the ultimate No-Hassle team- that is, a solid mixture of guys whose upside entices and veterans whose stability anchors. Antonio Brown has been fantasy football's most consistent producer now for half a dozen years. Will that continue in Oakland? If it does and Tyreek Hill plays much of the season, this team is clearly the team to beat. 

 

Hawkeye21:

1.05- RB Melvin Gordon, LAC

2.08- TE George Kittle, SF

3.05- WR Keenan Allen, LAC

4.08- RB Sony Michel, NE

5.05- WR Alshon Jeffery, Phi. 

6.08- RB David Montgomery, Chi. 

7.05- QB Drew Brees, NO

8.08- WR Anthony Miller, Chi. 

9.05- RB Austin Ekeler, LAC

10.08- WR Curtis Samuel, Car. 

11.05- WR Emmanuel Sanders, Den. 

12.08- RB Jerick McKinnon, SF

13.05- D/ST, Los Angeles Rams 

14.08- QB Matthew Stafford, Det. 

15.05- K Adam Vinatieri, Ind. 

16.08- TE Noah Fant, Den. 

Analysis: Now, we come to our second team with an early TE selection as Hawk stayed true to his Iowan roots with the selection of George Kittle. The question is: Did he recover from that as well as Remote did three picks prior? The two teams really ran parallel for most of the draft as both went RB-TE-WR-RB to start before both grabbing a QB in the seventh round. So, how does Elliott/Ertz/Thielen/Carson compare to Gordon/Kittle/Allen/Michel? Depends on who you ask I suppose. Personally, I like each of Remote's picks a little better, but a strong case could be made that this team is just as good. Brees was a solid choice at QB and he was preceded by David Montgomery who has more upside by far than Remote's RB3 (McCoy). Hawk sort of shifted back and forth down the stretch between youth and vets and was careful to grab Austin Ekeler late as a means of having Gordon's back so to speak. While I'm not exactly sold on some of the picks during the second half of this draft, there's no denying the draft plan was solid from a structural standpoint. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Someone on this roster needs to be better than advertised in order for the team to go all the way. Gordon is solid and dependable, but that is based more on his touchdowns than yards as his YPC is typically not near the levels of elite fantasy RBs. Additionally, another Charger (Keenan Allen) is not a sure thing to lead the team in receptions with Mike Williams on the rise and Hunter Henry on the mend. Hawk is really hitching his wagon to this Charger duo and if both turn out to be top 5-8 at their respective positions, the overall prospects of the team soar. The other key is Allen getting help at WR from a collection of uncertains. 

Favorite Pick: Montgomery was really a nice grab in the sixth round. There is a point in every draft where taking a rookie with upside far exceeds the low-ceiling veteran and this was that point in time. Also thought Emmanuel Sanders made sense alongside more risky WR picks like Curtis Samuel and Anthony Miller. Like Remote, Hawk also chose (wisely) to take a QB in the seventh before the pickings got slimmer. 

Least Favorite Pick: Can't fault taking Anthony Miller at some point in the draft, but was he really worthy of being taken in the first half of the proceedings? Wasn't fond of that and wasn't crazy about the McKinnon pick later either. 

Overall outlook: If you like the way Remote's team was constructed, you have to by default like this team's formation as well. I just think it lacks a bit of the sizzle of that team and I wonder if Kittle would have still been around at 3.05 such that a better WR pick could have been made in Round Two. Like every single drafter in this longstanding exercise, Hawk knows his stuff and he's done just fine putting everything together here. But, I don't see this team initially as being one of the top contenders unless someone unexpectedly breaks out. There were several picks of players whose upside is limited by either a crowded backfield or receiving corps. Watch out for Montgomery, though. If he becomes a rookie sensation, all bets are off (in a good way). 

 

Matt's Eagles:

1.06- RB David Johnson, Ari. 

2.07- WR Mike Evans, TB

3.06- RB Marlon Mack, Ind. 

4.07- RB Josh Jacobs, Oak. 

5.06- WR D.J. Moore, Car. 

6.07- QB Baker Mayfield, Cle. 

7.06- WR Dede Westbrook, Jax.

8.07- RB Damien Harris, NE

9.06- TE David Njoku, Cle. 

10.07- RB Kalen Ballage, Mia. 

11.06- WR A.J. Brown, Ten. 

12.07- QB Josh Allen, Buf. 

13.06- WR Deebo Samuel, SF

14.07- K Justin Tucker, Bal. 

15.06- D/ST, Philadelphia Eagles 

Analysis: It was noted throughout Matt's draft, but youth was really served via the formation of this team with so many players being either rookies or in their second year of playing in the NFL. Young teams are fun to track, but they are largely unpredictable and as such, any analysis of this team would have to be taken with a grain of salt or something similar. Sure, the first two picks are proven even if there is still uncertainty with respect to how far David Johnson can ultimately return to what he was three years ago. He and Mike Evans are the team's superstars and then the ship got turned over to the youngsters. Every single player picked beyond Marlon Mack in the third round has upside, but their roles on their respective teams are undetermined. Will Josh Jacobs be the feature back in Oakland? Does D.J. Moore have what it takes to be a WR2 for fantasy purposes? Westbrook? A.J. Brown? Deebo Samuel? The list goes on and on. All told, it appeared that Matt determined that since he's defending champion, he's playing with house money now. Why not go for broke?

Key to No-Hassle Success: Arizona is going to lean on Johnson, I think, and Evans and Mack will be productive...so this team is actually safe at its base. The key is just getting some of the unknowns to produce at levels worthy of their draft position, particularly the WRs since three will count towards the weekly total. It is also entirely possible that Baker Mayfield explodes this season to the point of being a top-3 QB given all the weapons he has at his disposal. That reality would go a long way towards this team being the dangerous unit they are capable of being. This is going to be one wild ride. If Matt can survive the early weeks in which growing pains are likely, they could surge down the stretch as young teams often do. 

Favorite Pick: The Brown duo of Mayfield and TE David Njoku were taken in really good spots, in my opinion. Both are moving towards dynamic duo status and even with Beckham and Jarvis Landry in the fold, Njoku's talent cannot be denied. I would have liked to have seen more balance up and down the roster with respect to experience and youth, but admit that it was fun to watch this group come together. 

Least Favorite Pick: For me, Dede Westbrook is no better a pick than guys that were drafted in much later rounds and I'm not sure he will be a consistent, reliable producer from week to week. I also think Harris was/is a better dynasty pick than a redraft in 2019. 

Overall outlook: Do you really want me to fake it and act like I know what this team is going to do? Only an arrogant fool would attempt to do that with so many variables in play. I will say that I thought the first three picks were solid and that it was that base that granted Matt the luxury of going big and bold in the rounds that followed. As was noted before, with Johnson and Mack, Matt doesn't need his young RBs to produce anything significant at the onset of the season, but he will need his young receiving corps to rise and shine right away. Is that realistic? Probably not, so again, look for this team to be a slow starter with better returns coming as the season moves deeper into fall. Fascinating stuff. 

 

White Wonder: 

1.07- RB Le'Veon Bell, NYJ

2.06- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pit. 

3.07- RB Leonard Fournette, Jax. 

4.06- WR Brandin Cooks, LAR

5.07- RB Lamar Miller, Hou. 

6.06- TE Hunter Henry, LAC

7.07- WR Will Fuller, Hou.

8.06- RB Adrian Peterson, Was.

9.07- WR Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. 

10.06- TE Greg Olsen, Car. 

11.07- QB Dak Prescott, Dal. 

12.06- QB Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. 

13.07- WR Marquise Brown, Bal. 

14.06- RB Matt Breida, SF 

15.07- K Matt Prater, Det. 

16.06- D/ST, Cleveland Browns

Analysis: Ah, the joys of contrast. Whereas Matt's Eagles was youth-focused, Wonder plucked out some of the league's elder statesmen in the form of guys like Adrian Peterson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Greg Olsen. Even Lamar Miller is sort of aged as far as running backs are concerned. Fortunately for Wonder, all of those players are "role" players if you will as the meat of this team are players still in their prime. Wonder clearly believes that Le'Veon Bell is going to adjust well to life without the Steelers and that JuJu Smith-Schuster is going to adust well to life without Antonio Brown. Beyond those two pillars, this team has plenty of potential to go alongside the aging veterans previously noted. One position of concern is at quarterback as the duo of Prescott and Trubisky may be the weakest tandem in the league. As has been previously discussed, though, putting off the selection of a quarterback grants a team very solid depth at the primary positions and Wonder's squad is no exception to that. There are plenty of intriguing picks making up that depth as will be noted below. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Bell and Smith-Schuster are going to be highly motivated to shine, so Wonder can depend on them for elite scoring. The key to success, thus, resides with less certain entities on the team like Leonard Fournette and Hunter Henry. Fournette could do anything from offer first-round value return to fall out of favor with coaches and find himself on the bench. He's the key, I think, to this team's final status. Henry should be fine, but he could be more than fine- as in Zach Ertz or George Kittle kind of good. If Fournette and Henry enjoy outstanding seasons, so will Wonder. Another guy to watch is Will Fuller as generally he's terrific when healthy. Therein lies the "key". Fuller can't spend the majority of the season on a trainer's table.

Favorite Pick: I don't know what to think of Leonard Fournette this season, but I think taking him at 3.07 was a risk well worth taking. It's already been mentioned what a Fournette resurrection would mean to this team. Also thought Matt Breida was a solid late pick. He has proven he can be dynamic when 100% healthy and an injury to Coleman would make him a potential stud in a Shanahanian offense.

Least Favorite Pick: Prescott and Trubisky were perfectly acceptable picks, but I do think they're the weakest duo in the No-Hassle League and format. This team will probably have to achieve success in spite of the QBs, not because of them. 

Overall outlook: I think I like this team in spite of some minor to moderate concerns. Le'Veon Bell will miss Pittsburgh, but not so much that he drops out of being an elite fantasy RB, even with Bilal Powell back to steal some touches on third downs. Peterson and Fitzgerald are both true wonders in the sense that their age doesn't seem to hold them back all that much, so I expect at least some production out of them when the match-ups are right. It helps, too, to have players like Brandin Cooks and Lamar Miller. They are high-floor, low-ceiling players who will basically meet but not exceed expectations. That fits in well with the upside of Smith-Schuster, Henry, and Fuller. This will be a competitive team. How competitive? That (of course) remains to be seen. 

 

Fumbleweed:

1.08- WR DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. 

2.05- TE Travis Kelce, KC

3.08- RB Derrick Henry, Ten. 

4.05- RB Mark Ingram, Bal. 

5.08- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR

6.05- RB Tarik Cohen, Chi. 

7.08- WR Dante Pettis, SF

8.05- WR Marvin Jones, Det.

9.08- QB Jared Goff, LAR

10.05- RB Miles Sanders, Phi. 

11.08- RB Dion Lewis, Ten. 

12.05- WR Keke Coutee, Hou. 

13.08- QB Lamar Jackson, Bal. 

14.05- K Greg Zuerlein, LAR

15.08- D/ST, Minnesota Vikings

16.05- TE Dallas Goedert, Phi. 

Analysis: We'll begin with the obvious- Travis Kelce better be really good this season. This wasn't a particularly easy place to draft from and picking a tight end so soon really kept me scrambling throughout the draft to try to figure out how to best put together a supporting cast. So, in the end, you've got the consensus top WR in fantasy football on this team and the consensus top TE...and then, it's a bunch of hopefuls who fail to capture anything close to the star power of the initial two selections. Derrick Henry concluded 2018 on a high note and the hope in a non-PPR league like this is that he'll pick up right about where he left off this season. The receiving corps beyond Hopkins is deep, but not particularly explosive. The RBs beyond Henry and Mark Ingram are kind of boom or bust from week to week most likely, but that does play well sometimes in the best ball format. Where this team really looks thin, though, is at QB as Jared Goff will look to maintain what he got started last season and Lamar Jackson will try to figure out how to throw the ball. It all adds up to some mystery and well wishes. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: I actually like Goff a lot as a fantasy QB- much more so than his value on a real field of play. And, I think Hopkins and Kelce are indeed the very best at what they do. But, in order for this team to contend, the running backs must be top five in the league in terms of production. Can Henry and Ingram really grant that level of stability? I'm not sure. Again, the fact that this is not a PPR league does help some. Dion Lewis and Coutee were selected specifically as insurance in case the injury bug hits and while that's smart policy, it also limits the upside of the team overall. Dante Pettis and Miles Sanders both represent exciting prospects. I think one of those guys has to be a hit this season also for the team to excel. 

Favorite Pick: I was pretty happy to scoop up Hopkins considering how big of a drop-off in value I believe there is at RB beyond Le'Veon Bell. So, that pick was pleasing, but the most pleased I was overall was to grab Pettis when I did. He really has a chance at top-15 value at WR, I think, and could give Cooper Kupp a run for his money as Hopkins's primary running mate. 

Least Favorite Pick: It's a toss-up between Mark Ingram and Tarik Cohen. Not taking a RB in the first two rounds made me very conscious of what my running game could look like if I didn't address the position big-time between rounds 3 and 6. Neither back thrills me, but both have some upside, I suppose. 

Overall outlook: I think my team compares most favorably to Hawkeye's team as like him, I suffered a bit from the early TE selection in trying to round out my roster. There are plenty of players on the roster that I'm personally fond of, but I'm sure most everybody feels that way about their respective picks. Although QB is a little weak, it's a well rounded team overall and I think a fairly deep one as well. I'm just not sure they'll lead the league in scoring on any one week during the upcoming season and as such, they'll have to rely on consistency as the primary vehicle towards contention. Like I said in the beginning, Travis Kelce better be pretty great. A lot was given up to obtain his services. 

 

Ray Lewis' Limo Driver:

 1.09- WR Davante Adams, GB

2.04- WR Odell Beckham, Jr., Cle. 

3.09- RB Devonta Freeman, Atl. 

4.04- RB Phillip Lindsay, Den. 

5.09- QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

6.04- WR Calvin Ridley, Atl. 

7.09- RB Jordan Howard, Phi.

8.04- RB Tevin Coleman, SF

9.09- TE Vance McDonald, Pit. 

10.04- QB Tom Brady, NE

11.09- TE Delanie Walker, Ten.

12.04- WR Geronimo Allison, GB

13.09- RB Malcolm Brown, LAR

14.04- WR James Washington, Pit. 

15.09- D/ST, Jacksonville Jaguars

16.04- K Robbie Gould, SF

Analysis: In analyzing these teams, plenty of parallel analysis has occurred as one team has been compared to another who was constructed in a similar fashion. In Ray's case, you have to look at the team he assembled alongside the team Mike assembled out of the #12 spot. Both decided that when picking from the bottom of the first round, WR-WR is the way to put a team together. Then RB-RB becomes the mission of Rounds 3 & 4 and then finding that franchise QB becomes the task of Round 5. And, in analyzing the value of all of that, you also have to compare both teams to Dan and Shovel's teams as they took the exact opposite approach to late first round draft status going RB-RB to begin. With seven RBs picked in this draft before a WR was considered, it was indeed at WR where the most value could be found from my perspective. Ray has positioned himself for "monster" receiving weeks often throughout the season and thus just needs his rushing attack to be respectable in order to contend. I think this is the best way to attack the late first, early second round pick combo. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Old faces in new places. Beckham in Cleveland receiving passes from Baker Mayfield seems like a match made in heaven, but with Beckham, nothing is ever certain. Ray passed on a few pretty decent RBs in order to take Beckham and he'll need to be worthy of that pick. In addition, Ray's RB depth is built upon two guys trying to keep their careers going on new teams- that being Tevin Coleman in San Francisco and Jordan Howard in Philadelphia. Neither is guaranteed a heavy workload and thus while Ray doesn't need both to secure the lead gig for their new teams, he probably does need one of them to do so. This team has real potential, but these three guys on brand new teams need to transition well to turn that potential into reality. 

Favorite Pick: Beckham. And I'm not even an Odell fan, but reaching for a RB after Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb had already been picked would have been a mistake. That tier of pickworthy RBs was gone and Ray did what needed to be done- take the best, most explosive player still on the board next. I also thought both Devonta Freeman and Phillip Lindsay gave Ray at least a shot to be middle of the pack in the rushing department. Both could see high volume throughout the season. 

Least Favorite Pick: Howard and Coleman's situations are so cloudy that I would have preferred picking only one of that duo- not both. Howard is probably the guy I like least as his lack of receiving skills seems like an odd fit in Philly to begin with. 

Overall outlook: Can teams without a stud RB compete for championships in the year 2019? If your answer is no, you have been asleep at the wheel for the past decade. Championship teams come in all shapes and sizes these days and Ray's powerhouse duo of Adams and Beckham is more than capable of propelling him to bigger and better things. A little more under the radar is the duo of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady who give him a nearly ideal tandem in the No-Hassle format. Rodgers is likely to have some huge scoring weeks and together with the receiving prowess could make Ray a candidate to lead the league in weekly scoring more than once as the season progresses. If the running game can simply come along for the ride, this could be a dynamic squad to be sure. 

 

Dan:

1.10- RB James Conner, Pit. 

2.03- RB Nick Chubb, Cle. 

3.10- WR Amari Cooper, Dal. 

4.03- WR Stefon Diggs, Min. 

5.10- WR Chris Godwin, TB

6.03- RB Rashaad Penny, Sea. 

7.10- TE Jared Cook, NO

8.03- WR Sterling Shepard, NYG

9.10- QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pit. 

10.03- QB Kirk Cousins, Min. 

11.10- RB Nyheim Hines, Ind. 

12.03- WR John Brown, Buf. 

13.10- TE Jimmy Graham, GB

14.03- WR Adam Humphries, Ten. 

15.10- K Mason Crosby, GB

16.03- D/ST, Pittsburgh Steelers 

Analysis: Taking a whole different approach than Ray was Dan as he took a more longstanding route with respect to fantasy football tradition and simply chose his top two running backs available with his first two picks. This was followed with an onslaught of wide receiver selections in an attempt to create a more balanced roster. Did the strategy work? While I think the running backs he began his draft with weren't worthy of being chosen over the most elite of wide receivers, I did very much like who he got at wide receiver in the stead. Amari Cooper and Stefon Diggs are two players who could have been chosen much earlier and do give this team plenty of upside at WR in spite of this being a RB-heavy team at its inception. Like most in this draft, Dan waited to fill the quarterback position, but was more wise than some in terms of not waiting any time at all to add a second signal caller of similar value. Bottom line: I'm not sure Conner and Chubb are much better than guys taken in the third and fourth rounds, but I like what Dan did from that point forward. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Chubb is going to be productive during the first half of the season, but what will the rushing attack in Cleveland look like when Kareem Hunt returns? That could be an issue, particularly if Chubb has been inconsistent up until that point. However, if Chubb shines and Hunt becomes merely insurance for him, Dan could have one of the better backfields in the league to go with depth at WR and consistency at QB. Rashaad Penny and Nyheim Hines could also factor into how this team does as injuries to either Marlon Mack or Chris Carson would turn one or both into legitimate borderline RB1s. Dan will need some help to achieve success, but a path is evident just the same. 

Favorite Pick: I'll go with the back-to-back picks of Cooper and Diggs. I'll admit that I wasn't high on Dan's team coming out of the starting blocks, but I'm not sure anybody did better in Rounds 3 & 4 with respect to improving his team. Cooper probably should have been picked in the early third round and Diggs middle to late in that same frame. Just a terrific recovery. 

Least Favorite Pick: James Conner to me represents mid-second round talent. I know his numbers from last year suggest otherwise, but teams are not going to fear the Pittsburgh aerial attack the way they have in the past and I don't expect running lanes to be so plentiful this time around. I also wasn't a big fan of Sterling Shepard being taken as early as he was. 

Overall outlook: There has been some criticism in this look back at Dan's draft, but in reality I think there's more I like than I dislike. It's a very balanced team in spite of the same position being addressed in the opening two rounds and that's not always easy to attain. The quality of the depth this team possesses also impresses me. There is upside for sure and there's also an outside chance that Jared Cook puts up ridiculous numbers as Drew Brees's #2 option in the New Orleans passing game. Overall, I wouldn't put this team in my top three, but they're definitely not outside of my top six. Perhaps the most balanced team in the league coming in. 

 

Shovelheadt:

1.11- RB Joe Mixon, Cin. 

2.02- RB Dalvin Cook, Min. 

3.11- QB Andrew Luck, Ind. 

4.02- WR Robert Woods, LAR

5.11- WR Jarvis Landry, Cle. 

6.02- RB Derrius Guice, Was. 

7.11- WR DeVante Parker, Mia.

8.02- TE Austin Hooper, Atl.

9.11- WR Golden Tate, NYG

10.02- RB Kareem Hunt, Cle. 

11.11- WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ

12.02- WR Tyrell Williams, Oak. 

13.11- QB Andy Dalton, Cin. 

14.02- TE T.J. Hockenson, Det. 

15.11- D/ST, Indianapolis Colts 

16.02- K Jake Elliott, Phi. 

Analysis: Shovel began his draft the same way Dan did, but veered off course with the early selection of Andrew Luck in Round Three. It was a tremendous amount of confidence to bestow upon Luck given that he's still not a certainty at this point in terms of long term fantasy value. One can argue that Shovel took both Mixon and Cook too early also, but both are in the sweet spot of their careers and as such, they were safe choices with almost no downside. Beyond that, though, this team makes me uncomfortable at times. There are A LOT of mouths to feed in Cleveland and as such, I'm not entirely sure where Jarvis Landry fits in. Further, there remains a cloud of mystery over Derrius Guice's ability to recover from such a harsh injury and overtake the never-grow-old Adrian Peterson. Add to that the pick of perennial bust DeVante Parker and this team simply has too many question marks for my comfort level. Some of the depth picks made sense, but also included some risk. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: I said it earlier with my team in regards to Travis Kelce and I'll say it here again, but on a different trajectory. Andrew Luck better be good. Like, top-2 fantasy production at the position good. Shovel's WR corps isn't going to frighten anyone and I think Mixon and Cook will be solid but not spectacular, so Shovel needs Luck to be truly special- like 40+ touchdown passes special. In addition, Robert Woods must emerge as the Rams's clear-cut #1 WR for this team to have any chance at a league title. That could vault Woods into the top ten at his position and combined with a historic performance from Luck could be "enough". If neither happens, this team could see a crash. 

Favorite Pick: I kind of saw this team as reeling throughout the draft, but perked up a bit with the selections of Golden Tate and Kareem Hunt in Rounds 9 & 10. Tate should get plenty of catches in New York's dink and dunk offense and Hunt was most certainly worth the gamble one round later considering Chubb isn't a sure thing to take that job by the throat. 

Least Favorite Pick: Parker probably steals top honor in this department, but in reality the picks in Rounds 5-7 weren't my favorites. I understand that some feel Parker has to break out at some point, but that boat has sailed for me personally. I thought he was a late round flier at best. 

Overall outlook: Two things: No, this wasn't one of my favorite teams. And, every single drafter in this annual competition knows their stuff. Just because I carry with me a different perspective than Shovel's doesn't really make his team inferior to anyone else's. For years now, I have seen teams constructed in this draft that didn't excite me do very, very well. Can this team pull that off? Absolutely. Like I said, Mixon and Cook have almost no downside- both are in the prime of their careers and will look to leap into a more elite tier this season. Can Andrew Luck be special? A lot of people think he can. There are variables a plenty on this team, but if the cards fall just right, success would no doubt be the end result. 

 

Mike FFToday: 

1.12- WR Julio Jones, Atl. 

2.01- WR Michael Thomas, NO

3.12- RB Aaron Jones, GB

4.01- RB Kerryon Johnson, Det. 

5.12- QB DeShaun Watson, Hou. 

6.01- TE O.J. Howard, TB

7.12- WR Tyler Boyd, Cin.

8.01- RB Latavius Murray, NO

9.12- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB

10.01- RB Carlos Hyde, KC 

11.12- WR Devin Funchess, Ind

12.01- RB Jaylen Samuels, Pit. 

13.12- QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF

14.01- WR N'Keal Harry, NE

15.12- D/ST, Los Angeles Chargers

16.01- K Mike Badgley, LAC

Analysis: Last but not least, we come to Ray's alter ego who took the exact same path as the Limo Driver with his first five picks. Mike did address tight end more quickly than Ray, but then pulled a "Ray" if you will by not selecting a second at that position. So, what does this team have going for them? Dynamic, explosive players for one. Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Aaron Jones, DeShaun Watson, and O.J. Howard are all very capable of putting up huge numbers on any given week. They are game-breakers if you will. Kerryon Johnson doesn't really fit into that mold, but Mike is apparently banking on him to take a pretty big step forward in 2019 on a team that traditionally doesn't run the ball all that well. Mike then vacillated late in the draft between veterans (Murray, Hyde) and youth (Valdes-Scantling, Samuels, Harry). Altogether, this team appears to be very well constructed in terms of balance and upside with no real wasted picks from my perspective. Just a solid, solid job from the far turn. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Obviously, O.J. Howard must stay healthy or it will be a zero at that position for as long as he's out. We've seen that wreck chances many times in the past in this league. Beyond that, though, it's just a matter of guys living up to their draft positions. There's very little concern that anyone will struggle to do that outside of Julio Jones who has to fall off eventually one would think. I don't think Jones is quite to that point, though, so you've got seven healthy players in their prime comprising the full "starter" spectrum in the first seven picks. Look around this league and find me a better starting seven than Watson, Jones, Johnson, Jones, Thomas, Boyd, and Howard. You'll be looking indefinitely. 

Favorite Pick: It's hard to pin down which pick I liked best. I thought Aaron Jones was a steal at 3.12. I thought the same of Watson at 5.12 and in hindsight wish I would have grabbed him at 5.08. I also thought Tyler Boyd was a solid grab in the seventh and Garoppolo an outstanding choice late. 

Least Favorite Pick: Not sure I have one, although I am not as sold as Mike apparently on Kerryon Johnson. It's not so much him- just hard to envision anything fantasy relevant coming out of a Detroit RB not named Sanders. Also, not taking a second tight end is a no-no in this league for sure. 

Overall outlook: Assuming the whole one tight end thing doesn't come back to bite him, it's difficult to suggest anything short of title contention for such a dynamic looking roster as this. I just really like how both Mike and Ray handled their late draft slots. Getting Julio Jones and Michael Thomas is like making fantastic lemonade out of those lemons and it really set the stage for what was to come. Sure, some of the late round picks may not amount to much with Murray, Hyde, and Funchess on new teams and Harry's role in New England far from clear. But, if the health of the seven "starters" holds up, it may not matter all that much. I would trade my team for this one in a heartbeat. 

 

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On 6/21/2019 at 8:46 AM, Fumbleweed said:

Vikings4Ever:

1.04- RB Alvin Kamara, NO

2.09- WR Antonio Brown, Oak. 

3.04- WR T.Y. Hilton, Ind. 

4.09- RB Kenyan Drake, Mia. 

5.04- WR Mike Williams, LAC

6.09- WR Tyreek Hill, KC

7.04- TE Eric Ebron, Ind. 

8.09- RB Darrell Henderson, LAR

9.04- QB Russell Wilson, Sea. 

10.09- RB Peyton Barber, TB

11.04- WR DeSean Jackson, Phi. 

12.09- TE Trey Burton, Chi. 

13.04- QB Kyler Murray, Ari. 

14.09- K Harrison Butker, KC

15.04- D/ST, Baltimore Ravens

16.04- WR Robert Foster, Buf. 

Analysis: Nobody personifies the "wait for a quarterback" strategy while stockpiling talent at RB and WR moreso than Vikings4Ever and this team is simply loaded in the middle of the lineup as a result. Being in the top four in the picking order means you're going to land one of the four "studs" at the RB position this season and it was a bit of a drop in my opinion after Kamara came off the board. Beyond that, Vikes focused on players on good offenses (minus Kenyan Drake) like T.Y. Hilton, Mike Williams, Eric Ebron, and potentially Tyreek Hill. That is a strategy that normally reaps rewards. As for Drake, he may not be on a great offense, but like Peyton Barber later in the draft, he has the potential for volume based on the lack of talent surrounding him at the position. And, how about landing a top-7 QB in the ninth round? Seems to me that waiting for a QB paid off for Vikes in this draft as he still landed a solid one to go along with so many other weapons. Honestly, it's a struggle to find much about this draft that I don't really like. This is a title contender. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Vikes isn't banking on Tyreek Hill being a difference maker this season, but if he were able to play most if not all of the season, it obviously puts this team on another level in terms of talent and explosiveness. It seemed like a worthy gamble given that Hill was fantasy football's top WR in 2018. Beyond that, very little could derail this team seemingly although a meltdown from Antonio Brown cannot be entirely ruled out if Derek Carr can't get the ball to him the way Brown deems appropriate. Finally, there are only four running backs on this roster, so maintaining health at that position really is paramount to reaching full potential. 

Favorite Pick: There were some great bargains obtained by Vikes from my vantage point beginning with Hilton in the third round and continuing on with Wilson in the ninth and then Trey Burton in the twelfth. Alvin Kamara to me, though, may have been the best pick as he's #2 overall on my board and in reality is on a much better offense even than Saquon Barkley. Pair Kamara with so many value picks and you've got exactly what I referred to earlier- a loaded team. 

Least Favorite Pick: The upside of Mike Williams is intriguing, but I do think Vikes might have picked him a tad bit early. Also, it's impossible to say what impact Kyler Murray will have and his selection as a backup QB was a bit of a gamble given that there are no transactions in this league. 

Overall outlook: This is easily one of the favorites to contend from my perspective as has already been noted. Vikes just seemed to have the right guy falling into his lap every time it was his pick. There is some mild concern present about what exists beyond Kamara at the RB position, but Vikes has such talent and depth at WR, he should be able to withstand any problems there. This is sort the ultimate No-Hassle team- that is, a solid mixture of guys whose upside entices and veterans whose stability anchors. Antonio Brown has been fantasy football's most consistent producer now for half a dozen years. Will that continue in Oakland? If it does and Tyreek Hill plays much of the season, this team is clearly the team to beat. 

As always, thanks for running the draft and doing analysis. :cheers:

I'm reasonably happy with my team. I'm not thrilled with my 2/3/4 turn, but taking Gurley or Fournette along with Golladay isn't really better, IMHO. RBs are also weaker than I like, but I couldn't pass up Hill in the 6th or Ebron in the 7th. Maybe I should have taken Jaylen Samuels instead of D-Jax, but with 3 starting WR spots, I felt I needed to plan/protect for Hill's suspension. Murray's close to the bottom of my Acceptable QB2 List, but he's on it, and sacrifices have to be made when drafting with a group of FFers like this draft contains.

It wasn't my goal, but I did get a surprising amount of explosive players in this draft. Which should be beneficial in our No Hassle format, but I can honestly say I would have made the same picks in a regular league as well.

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Analysis is done. I will shoot you guys an e-mail alerting you to this as well. 

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Thanks Fumble.

One note on my team and my QB situation. While you are not at all wrong, I would defend my decision to wait and go with that duo by asking if you think those 2 (Dak and Trubisky) will take a step back or a step forward? They were QB 12 and 15 respectively last year. Dak has a full season of Cooper and a return of Witten as well as a healthier offensive line. Trubisky enters year two in Matt Nagys offense. 

Basically I'm betting on improvement... but even if they stay put, two top 15 QBs is better than more than half the league can claim and should result in a steady output in a best ball format

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Yeah, it could be worse. You could have Lamar Jackson.:lol:

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I appreciate the comments about my iffy team..I think it's iffy as well. But don't understand the comments about Luck at all.  You say he needs to be 'truly special with 40+ TDs', but this is a QB that had 4600yrds and 39 TDs last year. And that was in a brand new offense after a year of learning how to throw again. I would even argue he might be a safer pick than Mahomes with all the turmoil going on in KC. 

My keys to success are probably the last 4 WR I drafted. If a couple can surprise, I might be able to hang close.

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7 hours ago, shovelheadt said:

I appreciate the comments about my iffy team..I think it's iffy as well. But don't understand the comments about Luck at all.  You say he needs to be 'truly special with 40+ TDs', but this is a QB that had 4600yrds and 39 TDs last year. And that was in a brand new offense after a year of learning how to throw again. I would even argue he might be a safer pick than Mahomes with all the turmoil going on in KC. 

My keys to success are probably the last 4 WR I drafted. If a couple can surprise, I might be able to hang close.

I don't think he's doubting Luck's ability to do so.  But because of where you took him, and how long you waited for WRs, Luck has got to be that.  A "really good" Luck isn't good enough, given your draft strategy. 

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Dan:

1.10- RB James Conner, Pit. 

2.03- RB Nick Chubb, Cle. 

3.10- WR Amari Cooper, Dal. 

4.03- WR Stefon Diggs, Min. 

5.10- WR Chris Godwin, TB

6.03- RB Rashaad Penny, Sea. 

7.10- TE Jared Cook, NO

8.03- WR Sterling Shepard, NYG

9.10- QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pit. 

10.03- QB Kirk Cousins, Min. 

11.10- RB Nyheim Hines, Ind. 

12.03- WR John Brown, Buf. 

13.10- TE Jimmy Graham, GB

14.03- WR Adam Humphries, Ten. 

15.10- K Mason Crosby, GB

16.03- D/ST, Pittsburgh Steelers 

Analysis: Taking a whole different approach than Ray was Dan as he took a more longstanding route with respect to fantasy football tradition and simply chose his top two running backs available with his first two picks. This was followed with an onslaught of wide receiver selections in an attempt to create a more balanced roster. Did the strategy work? While I think the running backs he began his draft with weren't worthy of being chosen over the most elite of wide receivers, I did very much like who he got at wide receiver in the stead. Amari Cooper and Stefon Diggs are two players who could have been chosen much earlier and do give this team plenty of upside at WR in spite of this being a RB-heavy team at its inception. Like most in this draft, Dan waited to fill the quarterback position, but was more wise than some in terms of not waiting any time at all to add a second signal caller of similar value. Bottom line: I'm not sure Conner and Chubb are much better than guys taken in the third and fourth rounds, but I like what Dan did from that point forward. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: Chubb is going to be productive during the first half of the season, but what will the rushing attack in Cleveland look like when Kareem Hunt returns? That could be an issue, particularly if Chubb has been inconsistent up until that point. However, if Chubb shines and Hunt becomes merely insurance for him, Dan could have one of the better backfields in the league to go with depth at WR and consistency at QB. Rashaad Penny and Nyheim Hines could also factor into how this team does as injuries to either Marlon Mack or Chris Carson would turn one or both into legitimate borderline RB1s. Dan will need some help to achieve success, but a path is evident just the same. 

Favorite Pick: I'll go with the back-to-back picks of Cooper and Diggs. I'll admit that I wasn't high on Dan's team coming out of the starting blocks, but I'm not sure anybody did better in Rounds 3 & 4 with respect to improving his team. Cooper probably should have been picked in the early third round and Diggs middle to late in that same frame. Just a terrific recovery. 

Least Favorite Pick: James Conner to me represents mid-second round talent. I know his numbers from last year suggest otherwise, but teams are not going to fear the Pittsburgh aerial attack the way they have in the past and I don't expect running lanes to be so plentiful this time around. I also wasn't a big fan of Sterling Shepard being taken as early as he was. 

Overall outlook: There has been some criticism in this look back at Dan's draft, but in reality I think there's more I like than I dislike. It's a very balanced team in spite of the same position being addressed in the opening two rounds and that's not always easy to attain. The quality of the depth this team possesses also impresses me. There is upside for sure and there's also an outside chance that Jared Cook puts up ridiculous numbers as Drew Brees's #2 option in the New Orleans passing game. Overall, I wouldn't put this team in my top three, but they're definitely not outside of my top six. Perhaps the most balanced team in the league coming in. 

 

I love my team; I hate my team.  I knew going in that the back of the first round is more open to a WR type of start, but I also knew that the bell cow RBs dry up fast in a 2-RB starting lineup.  In many ways, I played safe and conservative.  I get not liking Conner, but he is the safest play there, and creates a baseline.  It feels a meh pick to me, too, lacking sizzle, but it went against the grain a little.  I get any gripes against the start, but given the WRs at the 3/4 turn, the only argument against is a dislike of specific players.  Conner finished #7.  Chubb was #6 from the time he took over as a starter.  Diggs was #10.  Cooper was #4 from the point he went to Dallas.  Given the way that played out, I'm not going to lament the 2 ppg difference between Michael Thomas and Stefon Diggs in light of the RB choices available at the end of round 3.  The biggest issue will be Conner's stamina.  Ugh.  I hate that.

I didn't feel comfortable for a lot of the draft, and couldn't get in front of a run as much as I like, or go counter when I can't.  I like some of the picks I came away with, but as far as managing the draft, the ride felt bumpy.  I like my starting lineup, and even TE will shake out between the two old salts.  If Conner is solid, this team's competitive.  It wouldn't hurt if Penny took more playing time from Carson, either.  :)

 

Thanks, Fumble, for your analysis.  I think you were kind, and I always appreciate your thoughts.  Nice work

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Robb: 

1.03- RB Christian McCaffrey, Car. 

2.10- RB Todd Gurley, LAR

3.03- QB Patrick Mahomes, KC

4.10- WR Kenny Golladay, Det. 

5.03- WR Tyler Lockett, Sea. 

6.10- WR Allen Robinson, Chi. 

7.03- RB Ronald Jones, TB

8.10- WR Corey Davis, Ten. 

9.03- RB Royce Freeman, Den. 

10.10- RB D'Onta Foreman, Hou. 

11.03- QB Cam Newton, Car. 

12.10- D/ST, Chicago Bears

13.03- TE Chris Herndon, NYJ

14.10- WR Josh Gordon, NE

15.03- K Ka'imi Fairbairn, Hou. 

16.10- TE Rob Gronkowski, NE

Analysis: If this draft were held last December, we'd already be handing Robb the trophy. A backfield of Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey would have been unthinkable (in a good way) at that time and Patrick Mahomes in the third round would be considered a massive steal given last year's tidal wave of success. But, this is June. McCaffrey is still stable, but Todd Gurley is anything but and Mahomes is looking at being without his top weapon for part, if not all of 2019. As such, this is a team that could boom or bust pretty easily. The boom is simple: Gurley achieves at least 80% of his 2019 regular season production and in doing so, becomes a second-round steal. In addition, Mahomes proves that he's the true engine of the Kansas City offense and hardly misses a beat with or without Tyreek Hill. The bust is simple, too: Gurley is a constant source of fantasy frustration and the fact that this team has no real star at WR doesn't allow for a Plan B to emerge. In addition, the late selections of Gordon and Gronkowski end up being 100% wasted picks. 

Key to No-Hassle Success: This will be the easiest answer in this entire write-up. I'd like to offer up something obscure, but I won't. Todd Gurley is the key to this team's success. If it turns out that Robb stole Gurley based on unfounded concerns, you could have 2 of the 3 most productive RBs in the whole league on one team. Add in the odds-on best QB and a bunch of wide receivers who at least have to potential to be great in newly minted #1 roles on their respective teams and you've got something great cooking here. Also, Chris Herndon better stay healthy and be a decent producer because he's on an island at the tight end position. Every pick between Rounds 4 and 10 could improve by leaps and bounds this year. Robb will need at least two to make that leap. 

Favorite Pick: I know taking a QB early is not looked upon favorably in "expert" fantasy circles, but Patrick Mahomes is not just any quarterback. Getting him in the third round just seemed a bit ridiculous to me as I thought long and hard about taking him as early as 2.05. Additionally, Robb did what was necessary after taking no WRs in the first three rounds- that is, he loaded up on upside guys moving forward from that point on. 

Least Favorite Pick: Ronald Jones in the early seventh was not a pick that I was fond of. I think that will remain Peyton Barber's job primarily on a team whose RBs don't produce much anyway historically. Also, Gordon and Gronk were clever picks, but also empty potentially if not for something unexpected. 

Overall outlook: Murky. That's what will be said about any team with Gurley until September rolls around. You have to love the potential that this team possesses and as was noted previously, every WR chosen is still on the proper side of the career arc in terms of fantasy potential/production. But, potential means that a flip side exists and with Gurley, that flip side looms large at this point in time. Can this team win a No-Hassle championship? That is an absolute yes and in the end, that's all you can ask for in evaluating how well you did in putting together a team. But, few teams in the league carry more risk and Gurley is the poster child for that to be sure. 

====================================================================================================

Again, thanks Fumble for your time and analysis!!

Yes, I have a team where it may not work out, especially if Gurley fails. But, IMO, even if he does  flounder I made it a point to pick up some RBs with potential and who when they start, will score me points. You can disagree with me, but I believe Jones will be the TB starter and Foreman will start for Houston and points will be had by both backs.

My entire draft was about "potential" and honestly, I am pleased with the players I have chosen. I won't go into detail on each player, but it played out well for me IMO. Yes, I had Reed and Walker qued up as TEs and they got taken right before my picks, so, I waited. Not a TE fan anyhow so I didn't let it bother me. Best QB, best Defense and a talented WR corps is an okay team.

As for Gordon and Gronk..... I am not a Patriots fan at all, I just thought that late in the draft they could provide value if they play this year. Gordon as my WR5 is a good risk......Gronk, we'll have to wait and see!

Thanks again to everyone as I always enjoy the back-and-forth along with the reasoning behind selections (best part of this draft!)

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