RoJo

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

15 hours ago, weepaws said:

I know we’ve done this already, but Brady isn’t the same player he was in 2007. 

I know you think that both those excellent WRs will be top 7 in ff. 

Thats ok with me , I don’t.  

I think one of them will finish in the top 7. 

But not both. 

The projections I see are.  

Brady 366/564 att, that’s 72 less pass att then Winston had last season and 14 les rec. 

in 2007 rb Maroney lead the pats in touches with 189 in 13 games, that’s 14.5 per game, your predictions of Jones has him having 20 touches per game, so that’s more running and more targets to him in the passing game then the eight to Maroney.  

I see more targets like you do to the Rbs and Tes then we see being predicted. 

Also the prediction of R Jones on this site , have him avg 15 touches per game, and you’ve said you see 20. 

Now if Brady does complete 64% of his that will be because of his tes and Rbs check downs.  

Last season Brady completed 60% of his passes, his worst in six seasons , he also had no te help. 

So ill stick to my statement way way back when, I don’t see two top seven WRs from the Bucs this season, but they should win more games.  

Anyway great chat thank you.  

Ps like I said before , if they both do finish in the top seven , I’ll be the first one to congratulate you, and you know I will.  

 

Yeah, that's fine.  Nothing wrong with having a more conservative approach.

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

10 hours ago, AxeElf said:

So, to recap, Brady will have 7000 yards and 63 TDs, RoJo will average 20 touches per game, three TEs will split 1800 yards and 17 TDs, while the top 2 WRs will be among the top 5 in the nation with at least 2000 yards and 15 TDs each.

Book it.

You said it, not me.

[DrG 103]

Maybe all the talent will open things around Rojo but I think 14 carries for 37 yards is the kind of stat line we’ll see a lot from him.

McCoy might have some periodic flex value in ppr leagues for a game or two before he gets hurt.

[Matt Mueller 146]

3 hours ago, DrG said:

Maybe all the talent will open things around Rojo but I think 14 carries for 37 yards is the kind of stat line we’ll see a lot from him.

McCoy might have some periodic flex value in ppr leagues for a game or two before he gets hurt.

That's certainly possible but last year did not bear that out.  

When Ronald Jones got 12 carries or more this is how he did last year.  

14 carries, 77 yards 5.1 avg 1 TD 

12 carries, 51 yards 4.3 avg

18 carries, 67 yards 3.7 avg 1 TD 

19 carries, 70 yards 3.7 avg 1 TD 

14 carries, 80 yards 5.7 avg

13 carries, 75 yards 5.8 avg 

 

 

Its certainly possible Ronald jones is worse this year.  Or Brady and an all time tight end in Gronk hurt the run game and they become less efficient. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

7 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

That's certainly possible but last year did not bear that out.  

When Ronald Jones got 12 carries or more this is how he did last year.  

14 carries, 77 yards 5.1 avg 1 TD 

12 carries, 51 yards 4.3 avg

18 carries, 67 yards 3.7 avg 1 TD 

19 carries, 70 yards 3.7 avg 1 TD 

14 carries, 80 yards 5.7 avg

13 carries, 75 yards 5.8 avg 

 

 

Its certainly possible Ronald jones is worse this year.  Or Brady and an all time tight end in Gronk hurt the run game and they become less efficient. 

Was just going to post something similar.  Will add this, he averaged 15 fantasy points per game in those 6 games.

[DrG 103]

Rushes/yds week 1-16

13/75

4/19

14/80

19/70

9/35

4/10

11/35

11/29

4/13

12/51

6/8

11/36

11/23

14/77

Not a huge factor in the passing game.  Not a ppr back. The back that pass protects the best will be the guy they want with Brady. His best game rushing wise was week 17

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

14 hours ago, DrG said:

Rushes/yds week 1-16

13/75

4/19

14/80

19/70

9/35

4/10

11/35

11/29

4/13

12/51

6/8

11/36

11/23

14/77

Not a huge factor in the passing game.  Not a ppr back. The back that pass protects the best will be the guy they want with Brady. His best game rushing wise was week 17

No RB in Tampa was a huge factor in the passing game.  That was a result of Winston turning the ball over 32 time.  It's a result of Winston getting sacked 42 times.  That was a result of Winston not commanding the pre-snap decisions (Tampa had the most false starts in the NFL last year and the most pre-snap penalties).  The common factor?  Winston... who's no gone.

[DrG 103]

The common factors are 

a) none of these backs stand out talent wise

b) none except McCoy many years ago have been ‘the guy’
c) their coach likes to rotate them

d) 43 yo qb needs a good pass blocking rb - not known to be rojo s strong suit

[weepaws 3,191]

2 hours ago, DrG said:

The common factors are 

a) none of these backs stand out talent wise

b) none except McCoy many years ago have been ‘the guy’
c) their coach likes to rotate them

d) 43 yo qb needs a good pass blocking rb - not known to be rojo s strong suit

Can I ask you a question? 

PPR and Non PPR. 

Lets say your top 60 Rbs, where do you have R Jones ranked?  

[DrG 103]

Low ceiling rb3 for ppr you might end the year better off w McCoy

[weepaws 3,191]

10 hours ago, DrG said:

Low ceiling rb3 for ppr you might end the year better off w McCoy

Ok thanks, I truly appreciate the return. 

[Ray_T 753]

hey if you can get him as an RB3 you can certainly do worse for yourself.

Right now hes looking like the #1 RB in a very good offense.  usually that means hes got a pretty high floor.

I realize hes on the cusp of RB2/RB3 in the eyes of most people, but if he drops to a point where the top 20 or so RB's are off the board, this guy presents great value at that point in the draft.

with more upside than anyone at this point in the draft likely has.

I do think hes one of those players who is undervalued due to situation.   My thought is that Brady loves to win.  If Brady didnt think he could cut the mustard, he'd have lobbied management to trade for someone.   As this has not yet happened, and we are nearly at week 1, I dont think there is sufficient time for someone to come in and learn the offense fast enough, so hes your best bet at this point.

I'd say hes a high end rb3 who should be a low end RB2.   while the difference in most peoples eyes is nominal, the low floor and higher ceiling than is typical at that point in your draft makes him the late round bargain you are (or should be)looking for.

[weepaws 3,191]

In mocks non ppr I’ve been getting him as a rb3.  

I think he’ll be a really great flex.  

[weepaws 3,191]

Keep watch, looks like Jones as a injury.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

On 8/29/2020 at 3:33 PM, weepaws said:

Keep watch, looks like Jones as a injury.  

He was back at practice yesterday.

[weepaws 3,191]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

He was back at practice yesterday.

Thank you for the update. 

[Ray_T 753]

On 8/29/2020 at 12:49 PM, weepaws said:

In mocks non ppr I’ve been getting him as a rb3.  

I think he’ll be a really great flex.  

well, if hes your RB3 you can certainly do worse. 

if he lights it up, you may get some RB2 numbers out of him. 

Like I said, at that point in the draft, if you get him at that price, you are doing well.

If you are paying an RB2 price for him you may be paying too much.   not that he wont put up RB2 numbers.  I think he likely will, but why pay the price of an RB2 when you can have him for the price of an RB3.

[weepaws 3,191]

I agree Ray. And that’s how I see him this season,, great flex play with low rb2 upside.  

 

[Ray_T 753]

and if he clicks with the offense and breaks out, there is more upside than you'd get if he was in a crappy offense or on a crappy team.