Projections

[gcmmidwest 99]

How much does the projections influence your line up? All season long I've went with my gut... and the little write ups after the game.. .. says coach (me) proved the experts wrong again....in any event 

J. Herbert vs giants (18.2) or Kyler Murray vs rams (15)

Herbert is much higher but thinking rams and cardinals is a shootout?

[IMMensaMind 460]

Murray. 

This isn’t close, IMO. I always go with the QB who I think will still have to be throwing in the 4th quarter.

[gcmmidwest 99]

12 minutes ago, IMMensaMind said:

Murray. 

This isn’t close, IMO. I always go with the QB who I think will still have to be throwing in the 4th quarter.

So you ignore expert projections?

[IMMensaMind 460]

5 minutes ago, gcmmidwest said:

So you ignore expert projections?

Not entirely. I use them as my starting point, and then try to justify them. If I can’t, and my gut points me elsewhere, I go elsewhere.

[gcmmidwest 99]

Just now, IMMensaMind said:

Not entirely. I use them as my starting point, and then try to justify them. If I can’t, and my gut points me elsewhere, I go elsewhere.

Thax just needed to hear it ...same thinking 

[polecatt 404]

I don't really let it factor into my decisions on who to start too much unless it's something unusual.

I can pretty much guess by this point in the season what it's gonna project for my players any way. It rarely varies more than a point or two.

If it's something drastic, then I'll check out whatever the reason is and go from there.

It's not like they're very accurate. They tend to only separate the studs from the scrubs by something like 3-4 points or so. They don't ever predict big games, just a weekly sort of average.

If it's two players I'm debating about which to start, I may take it into consideration as a tie breaker sort of thing. That said, there's been plenty of times I've disagreed with their projection, and been correct.

[jrokh 569]

Just now, jrokh said:

What do the ‘Experts’ know that the majority of us on this bored don’t? We make the same educated guesses they do. Win some lose some. They are fortunate because they get paid for their guesses. That is the only objective difference.

 

[IMMensaMind 460]

Welp…Herbert is balling…

[gcmmidwest 99]

51 minutes ago, IMMensaMind said:

Welp…Herbert is balling…

I like him ,but you convinced me to switch my lineup we'll see how tomorrow nite goes he has Stafford im down by 1 and got kyler and Michel going 

[Ray_T 597]

On 12/12/2021 at 10:11 AM, IMMensaMind said:

Not entirely. I use them as my starting point, and then try to justify them. If I can’t, and my gut points me elsewhere, I go elsewhere.

This is what I do.

I look at the projections and then I try to figure out if those projections make sense given factors such as Strength of opponent, injuries, weather (especially important late in the year)

if the projections seem alright and you have two players with similar numbers. I usually go with the one facing the weaker defense because a swiss cheese D usually means the player exceeds projections.

Though if the weather is outright terrible you dont want QB's and/or WR's playing in weather like what we saw in the pats game Vs Buffalo.   Thats RB weather if you have an RB capable of putting up numbers or a game to outright avoid unless starting a Defense.

[gcmmidwest 99]

On 12/12/2021 at 6:59 PM, gcmmidwest said:

I like him ,but you convinced me to switch my lineup we'll see how tomorrow nite goes he has Stafford im down by 1 and got kyler and Michel going 

Im a wetodd should of listened to the projections i lost a 1st round bye and a bucket of cash for most points ..  by one fricken point

[weepaws 2,479]

See if you hadn’t spent a second round pick on Murray, and drafted a better rb/wr with that pick, and Drafted Hebert later, you would have been a bigger winner.  

Shame. 

[gcmmidwest 99]

33 minutes ago, weepaws said:

See if you hadn’t spent a second round pick on Murray, and drafted a better rb/wr with that pick, and Drafted Hebert later, you would have been a bigger winner.  

Shame. 

Running backs are a crap shoot ...Sony Michel gave me a miserable 5 points should of started aj green instead you know the guy you said would be worthless 

[Ray_T 597]

32 minutes ago, weepaws said:

See if you hadn’t spent a second round pick on Murray, and drafted a better rb/wr with that pick, and Drafted Hebert later, you would have been a bigger winner.  

Shame. 

well, the reason Murray went a lot earlier is he was a more proven QB.   But hes had a bit of a subpar year with being injured so people may not be quite as high on him.

that said, I suspect next year, both QB's will go early.

with the Season Herbert just had, he will go top 3 rounds in most formats.

but with running QB's there is a greater risk of injury due to the extra hits the QB takes.

in general, most Running QB's are done before they hit the age of 31.    McNabb, Vick, to some extent Cam Newton.   These guys all had shorter careers than they should have.   I personally think its the large number of hits they took compared to a drop back QB.

[gcmmidwest 99]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

well, the reason Murray went a lot earlier is he was a more proven QB.   But hes had a bit of a subpar year with being injured so people may not be quite as high on him.

that said, I suspect next year, both QB's will go early.

with the Season Herbert just had, he will go top 3 rounds in most formats.

but with running QB's there is a greater risk of injury due to the extra hits the QB takes.

in general, most Running QB's are done before they hit the age of 31.    McNabb, Vick, to some extent Cam Newton.   These guys all had shorter careers than they should have.   I personally think its the large number of hits they took compared to a drop back QB.

Murray is to short im done with midget interception throwing quarterbacks 

[Ray_T 597]

2 hours ago, gcmmidwest said:

Murray is to short im done with midget interception throwing quarterbacks 

hey we all have our preferences.

lots wouldnt draft Brees early in his career for the same reason.

All I'd suggest is you keep an open mind about the issue.

[weepaws 2,479]

5 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, the reason Murray went a lot earlier is he was a more proven QB.   But hes had a bit of a subpar year with being injured so people may not be quite as high on him.

that said, I suspect next year, both QB's will go early.

with the Season Herbert just had, he will go top 3 rounds in most formats.

but with running QB's there is a greater risk of injury due to the extra hits the QB takes.

in general, most Running QB's are done before they hit the age of 31.    McNabb, Vick, to some extent Cam Newton.   These guys all had shorter careers than they should have.   I personally think its the large number of hits they took compared to a drop back QB.

I hope next season someone in my leagues pick Herbert in the third round.  

[weepaws 2,479]

7 hours ago, gcmmidwest said:

Im a wetodd should of listened to the projections i lost a 1st round bye and a bucket of cash for most points ..  by one fricken point

 

5 hours ago, gcmmidwest said:

Running backs are a crap shoot ...Sony Michel gave me a miserable 5 points should of started aj green instead you know the guy you said would be worthless 

Week 6 and 14 green avg 14.5 points 1/2 ppr, week 5, and weeks 7-13 he avg 4.5. That’s the third reason why you lost out on that bucket 

4 hours ago, gcmmidwest said:

Murray is to short im done with midget interception throwing quarterbacks 

Now you agree , next season we won’t see you drafting Murray in the 2nd round.  

Nice.  

[gcmmidwest 99]

Sorry tannehill didn't work out for you ...perhaps draft a qb earlier next year and you might make the playoffs  

[gcmmidwest 99]

9 hours ago, Ray_T said:

hey we all have our preferences.

lots wouldnt draft Brees early in his career for the same reason.

All I'd suggest is you keep an open mind about the issue.

I like Murray just venting a bit ,but short qb's thrive with Tyreek Hill type wr's.....Murray has no speedster deep threats Brees had lots