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bostonlager

***2024 PGA Tour***

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2 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

@bostonlager

hate to say it but I’d probably fade most of those matchups you listed. I like Harman, Kim, Poston and Fowler ones. I mean, I like JT too this week but I’m very big on Morikawa. Maybe JT splits those two. 
xander has just been too good here for me to bet against him 

We will see. I'm trying something using these computer sim rankings

 

Rank Name Win% Sim Odds
1 Jon Rahm 10.7% 832
2 Rory Mcilroy 10.2% 881
3 Justin Thomas 9.3% 975
4 Max Homa 7.4% 1252
5 Scottie Scheffler 6.9% 1359
6 Xander Schauffele 4.4% 2163
7 Collin Morikawa 4.0% 2409
8 Tony Finau 3.7% 2587
9 Patrick Cantlay 3.3% 2918
10 Viktor Hovland 2.7% 3636
11 Cameron Young 2.7% 3674
12 Sungjae Im 2.3% 4217
13 Taylor Montgomery 1.8% 5529
14 Tom Kim 1.7% 5852
15 Jason Day 1.3% 7723
16 Hideki Matsuyama 1.2% 8119
17 J.T. Poston 1.1% 9394
18 Rickie Fowler 1.0% 9439
19 Keith Mitchell 1.0% 9736
20 Brian Harman 1.0% 9917
21 Keegan Bradley 1.0% 10121
22 Alex Noren 0.9% 10829
23 Tyrrell Hatton 0.8% 11711
24 Sam Burns 0.8% 12721
25 Brendan Steele 0.8% 12972
26 Corey Conners 0.7% 14186
27 Si Woo Kim 0.7% 14678
28 Seamus Power 0.7% 14938
29 Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.6% 15986
30 Russell Henley 0.6% 16613
31 J.J. Spaun 0.6% 16945
32 Gary Woodland 0.6% 17191
33 Shane Lowry 0.6% 17495
34 Jordan Spieth 0.5% 18305
35 Kyounghoon Lee 0.5% 18592
36 Sahith Theegala 0.5% 18650
37 Adam Hadwin 0.5% 19381
38 Taylor Pendrith 0.5% 19508
39 Denny Mccarthy 0.5% 20102
40 Chris Kirk 0.5% 20806
41 Beau Hossler 0.4% 23429
42 Maverick McNealy 0.4% 24490
43 Tom Hoge 0.4% 25216
44 Billy Horschel 0.4% 26332
45 Aaron Wise 0.4% 26567
46 Hayden Buckley 0.4% 26686
47 Wyndham Clark 0.4% 26806
48 Lucas Herbert 0.4% 26927
49 Tommy Fleetwood 0.4% 27049
50 Emiliano Grillo 0.4% 27423

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WMPO BETS:

 

JT 21-1, Saheeeeeeeth 45-1

 

FRL: Keegan 50-1, Hideki 33-1

 

GL boys :cheers: ⛳

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Very excited for Wednesdays netflix drop 😃

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Basically looking for ways to fade Tiger.

Thomas +150 in 1st round 3 ball vs tiger and rory.  

It was Rory at +110 or Thomas at +150.  So took Thomas.  

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Genesis Open Bets:

 

Jordan Speef 28-1

 

FRL: X 28-1, Jenny McCarthy 80-1

 

GL

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Genesis lottery ticket 

Beau Hossler +13000

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PGA version of the bye week. This Honda field looks pitiful. 

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Bad week for me. All I hit was Theegala top 40

had JT to win 18-1

Adam Scott top 20 and 30 which looked great until late Friday

Taylor Moore top 40.. also good until late Friday. 

also came a sliver away from cashing DFS despite only 4/6 making the cut. Needed Homa to get it done to cash  

never wager on my edex picks 😆

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Honda Classic Bets:

 

Taylor Pendrith 30-1

 

FRL: SH Kim 50-1, The Postman 40-1, Schwab 80-1

 

GL all, this field is hot garbage :cheers:

 

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Anyone can win this thing.  Out of last 10 years 2 were 250 to 1.  2 were 300 to 1.  1 was 125 to 1.  

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current DFS lineup :  Im, Kuchar, An, Willett, Shelton, SH Kim

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DFS

Sungjae Im

Aaron Rai

Jonny Vegas

Hayden Buckley

Ben Griffin

Will Gordon

 

Don't like having Im because his exposure will likely be really high, but don't know how to work a replacement. 

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41 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

DFS

Sungjae Im

Aaron Rai

Jonny Vegas

Hayden Buckley

Ben Griffin

Will Gordon

 

Don't like having Im because his exposure will likely be really high, but don't know how to work a replacement. 

I on FD and I think youre using DK but I imagin you could drop down to Shane Lowry if you want to avoid Im's exposure.  Although I paid the extra 100 salary on FD for Im thinking Lowry would actually end up with higher exposure. 

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1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

I on FD and I think youre using DK but I imagin you could drop down to Shane Lowry if you want to avoid Im's exposure.  Although I paid the extra 100 salary on FD for Im thinking Lowry would actually end up with higher exposure. 

Probably stick with Im. I'm not a fan of Lowry this week. 

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Chris Kirk +2800

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:overhead:

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4 hours ago, bostonlager said:

:overhead:

nice hit

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On 2/22/2023 at 4:29 PM, WhiteWonder said:

current DFS lineup :  Im, Kuchar, An, Willett, Shelton, SH Kim

had 5/6 cut makers which is usually good for a cash but none of them did anything on the weekend. Would have cashed with the slightly less chalky Lowry. 

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Arnold Palmer

Jason Day +3300

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Just now, bostonlager said:

Arnold Palmer

Jason Day +3300

I have to check out the top 20 market. It's a smaller field than the previous elevated events. I have not placed anything yet but am very interested in 

Willy Z +1600

Fitz +3100

Mitchell +4400

 

DFS im not sure. I really don't want to use my edex golfers :lol: but I find myself going right to them.  Scheffler, Zalatoris, Mitchell, Kirk, Woodland, Meronk at the moment. But i'll be tinkering with that

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3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I have to check out the top 20 market. It's a smaller field than the previous elevated events. I have not placed anything yet but am very interested in 

Willy Z +1600

Fitz +3100

Mitchell +4400

 

DFS im not sure. I really don't want to use my edex golfers :lol: but I find myself going right to them.  Scheffler, Zalatoris, Mitchell, Kirk, Woodland, Meronk at the moment. But i'll be tinkering with that

I haven't set my DFS yet, but here is how I'm working my lineups. 

DraftKings Lineup Core

Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Tyrrell Hatton, Tony Finau

DraftKings Value/Exposure Rankings

  1. Jason Day
  2. Keegan Bradley
  3. Tyrrell Hatton
  4. Tony Finau
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Patrick Cantlay
  7. Rickie Fowler
  8. Cameron Young
  9. Will Zalatoris
  10. Seamus Power
  11. Gary Woodland
  12. Justin Rose
  13. Max Homa
  14. Xander Schauffele
  15. Brian Harman

FanDuel Lineup Core

Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Tony Finau

FanDuel Value/Exposure Rankings

  1. Jason Day
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Cameron Young
  5. Aaron Rai
  6. Scottie Scheffler
  7. Rickie Fowler
  8. Rory McIlroy
  9. Hayden Buckley
  10. Keegan Bradley

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3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I haven't set my DFS yet, but here is how I'm working my lineups. 

DraftKings Lineup Core

Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Tyrrell Hatton, Tony Finau

DraftKings Value/Exposure Rankings

  1. Jason Day
  2. Keegan Bradley
  3. Tyrrell Hatton
  4. Tony Finau
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Patrick Cantlay
  7. Rickie Fowler
  8. Cameron Young
  9. Will Zalatoris
  10. Seamus Power
  11. Gary Woodland
  12. Justin Rose
  13. Max Homa
  14. Xander Schauffele
  15. Brian Harman

FanDuel Lineup Core

Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Tony Finau

FanDuel Value/Exposure Rankings

  1. Jason Day
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Cameron Young
  5. Aaron Rai
  6. Scottie Scheffler
  7. Rickie Fowler
  8. Rory McIlroy
  9. Hayden Buckley
  10. Keegan Bradley

if you dont mind me asking, where are you pulling this from. I dont pay for any of the services like fantasy national etc. But I was under the impression that Day was one of the highest ownership %'s this week, which maybe doesn't make him the best play for GPPs. Is that what your rankings mean? Day as #1 means hes showing the highest ownership on DK and FD? 

Admittedly I don't put as much thought into it but if I were, i'd want to target more guys who rate out well for the course but have lower expected ownerships. 

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2 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

if you dont mind me asking, where are you pulling this from. I dont pay for any of the services like fantasy national etc. But I was under the impression that Day was one of the highest ownership %'s this week, which maybe doesn't make him the best play for GPPs. Is that what your rankings mean? Day as #1 means hes showing the highest ownership on DK and FD? 

Admittedly I don't put as much thought into it but if I were, i'd want to target more guys who rate out well for the course but have lower expected ownerships. 

sportsline. 

Its a paysite, but has resources for everything fantasy and gambling so I don't mind $100/year

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On 2/9/2023 at 10:26 AM, listen2me 23 said:

Rory top English/Irishman  +110

Morikawa top 20 -125

Loss loss

 

On 2/16/2023 at 5:14 AM, listen2me 23 said:

Basically looking for ways to fade Tiger.

Thomas +150 in 1st round 3 ball vs tiger and rory.  

It was Rory at +110 or Thomas at +150.  So took Thomas.  

Loss

On 2/22/2023 at 6:22 PM, bostonlager said:

Chris Kirk +2800

Nice hit

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DK 

Sungjae Im

Keith Mitchell

Cameron Young

Jason Day

Keegan Bradley

Tyrrell Hatton

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API Bets:

 

Morikawa 22-1

FRL: Willy Z 33-1, Hoge 75-1, Big D1ck Rick 50-1

 

GL Gents :cheers:

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1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

if you dont mind me asking, where are you pulling this from. I dont pay for any of the services like fantasy national etc. But I was under the impression that Day was one of the highest ownership %'s this week, which maybe doesn't make him the best play for GPPs. Is that what your rankings mean? Day as #1 means hes showing the highest ownership on DK and FD? 

Admittedly I don't put as much thought into it but if I were, i'd want to target more guys who rate out well for the course but have lower expected ownerships. 

From what I understand, the rankings are the guys you want to take with emphasis on lower exposure for the price. 

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My Fantasy Kings Lineup this week for Arnies.  I went either iron wizards or big drivers.

Morikawa

Willy Z

Burns

K.Mitchell

Keegan 

Woodland

 

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The Players 

 

Jason Day +3000

Harris English +9000

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Players:

Jason Day +2800

So Woo +5000

Keith Mitchell +5500

KH Lee +18000

 

DFS: Thomas, Fitzpatrick, Hatton, Bradley, Mitchell, Fleetwood

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The Playas Bets:

 

Will "The Thrill" Zalatoris 32-1

 

FRL: Rory 18-1, Day 40-1, Fleetwood Mac 66-1, McCarthy 100-1

 

GL all :cheers:

 

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Valspar Championship Bets:

 

Adam Hadwin 20-1

 

FRL: JT 22-1, Johnny Vegas 50-1, Riley 40-1, Ben Martin 66-1

 

GL Gents :cheers: ⛳

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I know he’s been playing poorly but Kisner +140 against Hideki tomorrow? I’ll take it 

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4 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I know he’s been playing poorly but Kisner +140 against Hideki tomorrow? I’ll take it 

I took Kisner to win the whole thing +5000. I did the same last year and then hedged my bet in the finals to lock in a profit. Hoping to do the same this year. Its a short course so the other guys can't just bomb him and he's a matchplay pain in the ass. I'm just now looking over options but I plan on taking him in all matchups offered. 

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9 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I took Kisner to win the whole thing +5000. I did the same last year and then hedged my bet in the finals to lock in a profit. Hoping to do the same this year. Its a short course so the other guys can't just bomb him and he's a matchplay pain in the ass. I'm just now looking over options but I plan on taking him in all matchups offered. 

I may consider the same I guess I just am a little shy about taking a guy who is expected to be there. 
 

Spieth feels interesting. Bezud as a longer shot. 

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6 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I may consider the same I guess I just am a little shy about taking a guy who is expected to be there. 
 

Spieth feels interesting. Bezud as a longer shot. 

I'm looking for attractive dogs this week. Half the top seeds or more won't get out of group play.  

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1 minute ago, bostonlager said:

I'm looking for attractive dogs this week. Half the top seeds or more won't get out of group play.  

I just don’t consider Kisner a dog in this event I guess is my point. His ranking is what it is but he’s got to be one of the 5 most popular to wager on. 

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3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I just don’t consider Kisner a dog in this event I guess is my point. His ranking is what it is but he’s got to be one of the 5 most popular to wager on. 

Bovada just shifted him to +8000. That is dog enough odds for me to double own. 

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