Where are the top QB's going to be drafted this year?

[Ray_T 608]

20 minutes ago, jrokh said:

It’s possible that NFL Teams don’t want to show their hand but Strong isn’t even in the top 5. Wills, Pickett, Corral, Ritter and even Howell are drawing more interest than Strong. I predict he won’t be picked till the 3rd round.

 

if he does, a team has a potential starter for a cheap price.

that said, he didnt play due to that injury and didnt progress during that time.  so whoever drafts him likely does likely need to have him sit a year before hes potentially ready to start.

that likely places him in the second round(possibly the third).  though teams seem to overvalue the QB position.... so if a team likes him he could easily drop in the second half of round 1.

I have certainly seen stranger things happen.

you and I both know, players rarely get drafted where they should.   that goes for both real football and fantasy.

[AxeElf 787]

Old fashioned take-your-turn drafts are passe; the NFL needs to go to an auction draft format.

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

Odds on 1st rd QBs drafted 

Over 2.5 -200

Over 3.5 +220 

 

-200 is a lot of juice but imho that is an auto bet.  Teams overdraft QBs ever single year without fail.  3 QBs will be drafted in the 1st, possibly a 4th even.  Scouting reports are a dime a dozen, comparing them is useful for background info but if you're talking draft result projections you're better off listening and reading mocks / scouting feedback of guys like Sharpe, Lombardi, Cosell.  

PFF for instance has the QBs ranked in order 

Howell
Willis
Ridder 

No Pickett, No Corral.  

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

speaking of Mocks.... who is writing the Mocks for this site??  

Ask that person if they realize the Chiefs signed Honey Badgers' replacement at Safety about a month ago for $31 million.  The author can stop mocking the Safety position to the Chiefs in the 1st round as "Tyrann Mathieu's replacement IF he leaves in Free Agency".  

Were these Mocks written a month ago to be posted now??  

[jrokh 574]

13 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Odds on 1st rd QBs drafted 

Over 2.5 -200

Over 3.5 +220 

 

-200 is a lot of juice but imho that is an auto bet.  Teams overdraft QBs ever single year without fail.  3 QBs will be drafted in the 1st, possibly a 4th even.  Scouting reports are a dime a dozen, comparing them is useful for background info but if you're talking draft result projections you're better off listening and reading mocks / scouting feedback of guys like Sharpe, Lombardi, Cosell.  

PFF for instance has the QBs ranked in order 

Howell
Willis
Ridder 

No Pickett, No Corral.  

Wasn’t PFF the same site that called Baker Mayfield the cream of that QB Class, and Josh Allen the likeliest to bust because of his inaccuracy in College? I only trust PFF for Offensive Line Ranks, maybe CB. As for this year I don’t really believe anyone in the heart of lying season, but I would bet the house Howell isn’t the first QB drafted, and I’d bet the mortgage he won’t be the second either…

[Ray_T 608]

3 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

PFF for instance has the QBs ranked in order 

Howell
Willis
Ridder 

No Pickett, No Corral.  

well, I consulted multiple publications.   the numbers I posted earlier were averages of those ratings.

vast majority had pickett as the #1 QB on the board.   and nearly all who didnt have him as the #1 guy had him at #2.

the fact PFF didnt have him in the top 5 at all is a bit concerning.

someone here says they only use PFF for line rankings.... I kind of am in the same boat.  I do look at other things, but assessing the O line is probably the most useful thing they do as nobody else seems to do a good job of this.   I havnt been a huge fan of their QB ratings.   I dont consider them better or worse than other publications on this anyhow.   That may change but right now thats where I am at with that.

their rating for Corral I"m less concerned with as his ratings are all over the map so this just reinforces that most scouts dont truly know what we have in Corral.   likely hes a nice day 2 pickup for someone unless someone is hot to trot to take him on day one.

 

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

3 hours ago, jrokh said:

Wasn’t PFF the same site that called Baker Mayfield the cream of that QB Class, and Josh Allen the likeliest to bust because of his inaccuracy in College? I only trust PFF for Offensive Line Ranks, maybe CB. As for this year I don’t really believe anyone in the heart of lying season, but I would bet the house Howell isn’t the first QB drafted, and I’d bet the mortgage he won’t be the second either…

Probably, IDK as I'm with you on using pff as a non-skill position reference tool.  I'll add to it that pff is owned by Chris Collinsworth and has a reputation for "who is evaluating these guys and what are their credentials" type of deal.  This is my point though, you're going to get a wide variety of opinions so take them all with a grain of salt.  Use the multiple tools to evaluate, everything that has been listed already plus using your own "eye test".  

I do not believe Howell will go first or second either, again, this is my point.  PFF is no "youtube" or "twitter" scouting service ran from Mom's basement.  Mel Kiper is wrong 80% of the time and keeps his job every year.  

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

39 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, I consulted multiple publications.   the numbers I posted earlier were averages of those ratings.

vast majority had pickett as the #1 QB on the board.   and nearly all who didnt have him as the #1 guy had him at #2.

the fact PFF didnt have him in the top 5 at all is a bit concerning.

someone here says they only use PFF for line rankings.... I kind of am in the same boat.  I do look at other things, but assessing the O line is probably the most useful thing they do as nobody else seems to do a good job of this.   I havnt been a huge fan of their QB ratings.   I dont consider them better or worse than other publications on this anyhow.   That may change but right now thats where I am at with that.

their rating for Corral I"m less concerned with as his ratings are all over the map so this just reinforces that most scouts dont truly know what we have in Corral.   likely hes a nice day 2 pickup for someone unless someone is hot to trot to take him on day one.

 

Averages yes, good deal I missed that note.  Personally I don't think much of this draft class either and if I was an NFL GM there would be maybe one QB I'd consider 1st round grade.... and I agree on Corral.    

[Ray_T 608]

3 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Probably, IDK as I'm with you on using pff as a non-skill position reference tool.  I'll add to it that pff is owned by Chris Collinsworth and has a reputation for "who is evaluating these guys and what are their credentials" type of deal.  This is my point though, you're going to get a wide variety of opinions so take them all with a grain of salt.  Use the multiple tools to evaluate, everything that has been listed already plus using your own "eye test".  

I do not believe Howell will go first or second either, again, this is my point.  PFF is no "youtube" or "twitter" scouting service ran from Mom's basement.  Mel Kiper is wrong 80% of the time and keeps his job every year.  

well, what I like to do is look at multiple publications.  I tend to stray from the ones who give you a ranking and no scouting report.  I like to view the scouting report and compare to other reports to see if one publication sees different traits than the others   its can be tedious.   I do like the fftoday analysis as they usually show video evidence of their analysis.  (which is nice) 

[Ray_T 608]

just to summarize my own opinions/biases.....

I like to see certain things in a scouting report when looking at one for rookie QB's.

lots of college QB's rely almost solely on their athleticism and dont do many of the things you need to do to thrive in the NFL.

I like to see a QB who already will go through their reads/progressions.   if they do it well and do it quickly that likely means  the transition to NFL starter will go a lot better and their chances of starting early is substantially better.

I also like to see a QB with a lightning quick release and good to great accuracy.   obviously the more accurate the better.  at the NFL level underthrown balls or balls thrown behind receivers usually end up as interceptions.   but outstanding accuracy and a quick release will make up for a lot of other bad traits especially if the QB goes through progressions quickly as noted above.

other features such as arm strength are important too especially when throwing a long to intermediate pass.   you throw harder, the DB has less time to recover.  you throw softer, the ball will hang and the db can recover in time.....but in my mind, if you are super accurate, that can make up for a lot of the deficiencies here(within reason)  you still need to be able to make the throws but at this level, nearly all the prospects can make all the throws.  Thats why they are here.

 

anyhow those are my priorities in viewing a scouting report on QB's.

but if a QB is slow making decisions and/or takes a lot of sacks or turns the ball over.... that problem usually gets worse at the NFL level. 

for me its all about processing speed and accuracy.  Thats what separates the elite QB's. 

They see whats coming and they know what they have to do and make the play they need to make quickly.

 

.  

 

[jrokh 574]

53 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Mel Kiper is wrong 80% of the time and keeps his job every year.  

That’s partly because his job is not to predict who will be drafted where but to inform and entertain with his opinions about individual draft prospects. It is near impossible to be accurate when teams make a game of lying to draft analysts…

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

26 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

just to summarize my own opinions/biases.....

I like to see certain things in a scouting report when looking at one for rookie QB's.

lots of college QB's rely almost solely on their athleticism and dont do many of the things you need to do to thrive in the NFL.

I like to see a QB who already will go through their reads/progressions.   if they do it well and do it quickly that likely means  the transition to NFL starter will go a lot better and their chances of starting early is substantially better.

I also like to see a QB with a lightning quick release and good to great accuracy.   obviously the more accurate the better.  at the NFL level underthrown balls or balls thrown behind receivers usually end up as interceptions.   but outstanding accuracy and a quick release will make up for a lot of other bad traits especially if the QB goes through progressions quickly as noted above.

other features such as arm strength are important too especially when throwing a long to intermediate pass.   you throw harder, the DB has less time to recover.  you throw softer, the ball will hang and the db can recover in time.....but in my mind, if you are super accurate, that can make up for a lot of the deficiencies here(within reason)  you still need to be able to make the throws but at this level, nearly all the prospects can make all the throws.  Thats why they are here.

 

anyhow those are my priorities in viewing a scouting report on QB's.

but if a QB is slow making decisions and/or takes a lot of sacks or turns the ball over.... that problem usually gets worse at the NFL level. 

for me its all about processing speed and accuracy.  Thats what separates the elite QB's. 

They see whats coming and they know what they have to do and make the play they need to make quickly.

 

.  

 

100% agree with everything bolded.  Poor decision making in college means poor decision making in the Pros.  Large measures of improvement in accuracy from CFB to Pros are very rare....Josh Allen is the perfect outlier here.  

"insert handshake emoji" 

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

That’s partly because his job is not to predict who will be drafted where but to inform and entertain with his opinions about individual draft prospects. It is near impossible to be accurate when teams make a game of lying to draft analysts…

don't forget to include "pump up prospects based on relationships with player agents and get kick backs for the pump and dump strategies".  

 

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

18 minutes ago, jrokh said:

That’s partly because his job is not to predict who will be drafted where but to inform and entertain with his opinions about individual draft prospects. It is near impossible to be accurate when teams make a game of lying to draft analysts…

....found Kiper's burner account huh   testy, testy....

 

 

[Ray_T 608]

46 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

100% agree with everything bolded.  Poor decision making in college means poor decision making in the Pros.  Large measures of improvement in accuracy from CFB to Pros are very rare....Josh Allen is the perfect outlier here.  

"insert handshake emoji" 

for the most part, this is true.  there are always exceptions.   A QB with mechanics problems can solve the accuracy problem if the mechanics get fixed.

real problem is, most of these QBs are first round picks and teams dont have the patience to wait and make sure the mechanics are sound before throwing the player back in to play.   sometimes it can take more than an offseason to fix these issues as the player has been throwing wrong for likely many years at this point.  

if the player was taken in round 2 or 3, the team is usually more patient and willing to wait it out and develop the kid properly 

I also find QB's with top football programs are sometimes harder to evaluate too.    sometimes a players bad features become apparent when the QB is under pressure or when the coverage on the primary receiver is good.

but your top football programs have WR's who are so good most DBs at the college level cannot cover them and the line is so good the QB doesnt have to make many throws under pressure.    This makes the QB harder to evaluate (not easier) because nearly all his throws are not under pressure and the WR is wide open most of the time.   try making the same throw under pressure when the coverage on your guy is decent.  you either place the ball perfectly or quickly go to the next read.

any high level college QB or starting calibre nfl qb should be able to hit a wide open receiver if given reasonable time to throw the ball.   its when you dont have time or your WR isnt open that the ability of your QB is tested.

so the kid coming out of a mid level program with a pro style offense that asks the QB to make nfl style reads is likely easier to evaluate than the kid in a high level program who has superior talent on his team across the board.

 

[jrokh 574]

59 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

....found Kiper's burner account huh   testy, testy....

 

 

Does he have a burner account? Is it called Mel Kiper’s hair?

[Super Cubs 134]

I'm curious what NO does with their 2 picks.  I have not been keeping a close eye on the Saints, but QB does seem to be a potential need.

[Ray_T 608]

45 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

I'm curious what NO does with their 2 picks.  I have not been keeping a close eye on the Saints, but QB does seem to be a potential need.

it does.

though if picking a QB in this draft, unless one of the top 2 prospects drops to them late in round 1 (which is possible this year) they may be better off grabbing a player who needs some development and hire a top notch QB guy to work with them for a year (or two if need be)

Willis looks like a QB who could be good if he can legitimately sit for at least a year.   but hes far from being a finished product.  I dont think this is a player who would benefit from being thrown to the wolves in the first half of his rookie season.   and as a second round pick there would be less pressure to play him early.   it also wouldnt immediately create a QB controversy if he was taken in round 2 either.

[jrokh 574]

52 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

I'm curious what NO does with their 2 picks.  I have not been keeping a close eye on the Saints, but QB does seem to be a potential need.

That trade is a noodle scratcher. Either the Saints wanted 2 picks to package to move further up to grab a QB, or else they wanted to jump the Chargers to secure what I figure would be an OL? Unless it’s the former I don’t get it…

[Ray_T 608]

11 minutes ago, jrokh said:

That trade is a noodle scratcher. Either the Saints wanted 2 picks to package to move further up to grab a QB, or else they wanted to jump the Chargers to secure what I figure would be an OL? Unless it’s the former I don’t get it…

thats the thing.  if they wanted to draft a QB a first round pick in next years draft may be a better thing to have.

unless for some reason they think one of the QB's outside of the top 2 prospects is their target.   maybe they know something we dont.

[jrokh 574]

7 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

unless for some reason they think one of the QB's outside of the top 2 prospects is their target.   maybe they know something we dont.

My thought was they would package the two picks specifically to go get one of the top 2 guys. Giants and Jets both have multiple picks in the top ten, and rumor buzz is Carolina would like to trade back. If the Saints just keep the picks why make the move in the first place…

[Ray_T 608]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

My thought was they would package the two picks specifically to go get one of the top 2 guys. Giants and Jets both have multiple picks in the top ten, and rumor buzz is Carolina would like to trade back. If the Saints just keep the picks why make the move in the first place…

fair point.

not sure that trading multiple first round picks to move up is a good idea in this draft but I'm sure one or two teams will do it.

[DocNiner 45]

Malik Willis goes to the Falcons at 8 and Pickett goes to the Steelers at 20. Matt Corral goes to Detroit at 32.