2024 NFL Draft Profile - QB Caleb Williams

[Mike FF Today 608]

Kicking off Doug Orth's 2024 rookie profiles today with presumptive No.1 overall pick.

QB Caleb Williams, USC

[Maximum Overkill 645]

He's Fantasy Gold in Dynasty Superflex Leagues. 

[The Football Guru 212]

8 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

He's Fantasy Gold in Dynasty Superflex Leagues. 

I have the 1.03 in a one-quarterback dynasty league and will strongly consider him there, especially if he lands in Chicago. (I am in great shape at every other position besides QB.) Harrison/Nabers/Odunze would likely begin 2024 as my WR5 at best. With DJ Moore and Keenan Allen as his top WRs, I don't see how he fails. But I like him a lot less if he goes just about anywhere else.

[weepaws 2,460]

The Bears have set up Williams for nicely,   Mr Guru what do you think about Mr Williams as a Bear in redraft leagues? 

[Maximum Overkill 645]

4 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

I have the 1.03 in a one-quarterback dynasty league and will strongly consider him there, especially if he lands in Chicago. (I am in great shape at every other position besides QB.) Harrison/Nabers/Odunze would likely begin 2024 as my WR5 at best. With DJ Moore and Keenan Allen as his top WRs, I don't see how he fails. But I like him a lot less if he goes just about anywhere else.

I would do that in a second, especially if Nabers and Harrison are gone. You'll have your dynasty QB locked up. Nice! 

[Maximum Overkill 645]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

The Bears have set up Williams for nicely,   Mr Guru what do you think about Mr Williams as a Bear in redraft leagues? 

In a ten team league he's probably the first QB2 off the board. In a 12 team league I'd probably draft him right around that QB10 range. 

Maybe earlier in both scenarios. I'm very bullish on him. The package is ideal for fantasy football. 

[weepaws 2,460]

Yea I’m hoping he falls into the double digit rounds.  

[The Football Guru 212]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

The Bears have set up Williams for nicely,   Mr Guru what do you think about Mr Williams as a Bear in redraft leagues? 

Without giving it too much thought, I think low-end QB1 is where I would start with him. He's not as gifted of a runner as Jayden Daniels (and he's not the passer Daniels is yet either), but the talent is undeniable and the supporting cast may be top-five all-time for a No. 1 overall pick.

[weepaws 2,460]

26 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Without giving it too much thought, I think low-end QB1 is where I would start with him. He's not as gifted of a runner as Jayden Daniels (and he's not the passer Daniels is yet either), but the talent is undeniable and the supporting cast may be top-five all-time for a No. 1 overall pick.

Thank you. 

[Ray_T 591]

ok looking at the scout report as noted I dont like that his decision making rating is as low as it is.   I also dont like how long he hangs onto the ball.   at the NFL level thats trouble.

feels like he may be no better than the QB hes replacing in Chicago.

granted, reading a scouting report is different than watching him play so I'll try to watch some tape but looking at Doug's analysis of him I'd say hes not as good as I'd like him to be for a #1 overall pick.

[GobbleDog 816]

13 hours ago, Ray_T said:

granted, reading a scouting report is different than watching him play

Williams was on national tv twice last year when I watched him. Didn't see why he was so hyped. Neither did any of my friends. But that was just 2 games. Meanwhile I thought Bo Nix looked great in the few games I saw him.

Guess that's why I'm not a scout.

[Ray_T 591]

well, I'm going to be looking at tape.  but I've read scouting reports from 2 sources and I think what has people intrigued is the skillset. 

the scouting reports dont actually say it but reading between the lines, he is far from being a finished product in terms of his ability to read, make good, quick decisions etc.

normally when I see this on a scouting report I think late first, early 2nd round but people seem to be so sure hes the next Mahomes.   

flaws in decision making can be fixed with coaching to an extent.    but the long time holding the ball is also concerning for me.   Granted I dont know if he holds the ball a long time because he can (good protection) or because hes running with the ball.    and the scouting report from the cheezy magazine I bought doesnt say.   though I'm gonna look at the tape Doug provides of examples of what he speaks of and then I'll look at some independent tape.  at that point I'll have a better feel for what this kid is about.

[weepaws 2,460]

I’ll take the rookie Qb they draft in the double digit rounds.  

[Gepetto 988]

So if Caleb Williams get drafted by the Bears, and Marvin Harrison Jr gets drafted by the Cardinals

Who do you draft higher in a redraft league: 

Caleb or MHJr?

Caleb or Kyler Murray?

[Maximum Overkill 645]

1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

So if Caleb Williams get drafted by the Bears, and Marvin Harrison Jr gets drafted by the Cardinals

Who do you draft higher in a redraft league: 

Caleb or MHJr?

Caleb or Kyler Murray?

Harrison Jr & Murray. 

Murray's stock rises if they land Nabers or Harrison. 

[Ray_T 591]

ok in looking at the doug Orth film,  he noted that at 0:30 that that was a case of bad decision making.     I disagree.  receiver was wide open.   he had pressure in his face and he floated the ball and it went over his head and was intercepted.

its not entirely clear cut because  the defender was in his face and prevented him from putting more zip on the ball.     At the NFL level that ball likely gets batted at the line so maybe it does fit into decision making.   its a bit of a grey area.    Though I think accuracy is the more relevant category on that.

 

same with the play at 1:47 of the tape.   That may also be accuracy.  once again the ball didnt have the zip you necessarily want (likely due to pressure once again) but the ball was behind the WR who then had to slow down and the lack of zip on the ball allowed the defender to close the gap.    I think this is also better classified as accuracy  though once again at the NFL level, the pressure in his face is likely more substantial and that ball might get picked even if its on target unless there is significant zip on the ball.   so maybe it is decision making.   its also a grey area.

 

but some of the cases of bad decision making are absolutely brutal.  makes me wonder if the bears are dumping their starter to bring in a younger version of the same player. (assuming its caleb they want)

I still have lots of tape to go through but just some commentary on what I've seen so far.

[Ray_T 591]

ok looking at the bad accuracy ones,  it looks like hes not getting a proper  plant and throw motion on those.

I acknowledge the first one (7:10)  was partly created by the RB being slow in coming in to take the fake handoff.  his arrival later than expected likely prevented him from doing his foot plant to get the ball there on time and the quick flick at the WR was behind him.

the second one at 9:56 I wasnt real happy with his foot plant, but something about the throwing motion wasnt quite right.   trying to figure out where the mechanics broke down but I've seen a couple of these types now on the tape and its making me think he has some work on his mechanics that needs to be done too.

dont get me wrong.  theres a lot of good here, but I dont know that I'd want this guy at #1 overall unless you have a real good QB coach and QB development plan.   And the Bears are not a team that seems to have good luck developing young QB.

 

 

[weepaws 2,460]

Always the wr before a Qb.  Which ever Qb is still available in the double digit rounds.  And then stream.  

[Maximum Overkill 645]

34 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Always the wr before a Qb.  Which ever Qb is still available in the double digit rounds.  And then stream.  

It depends on the league type. Redraft yes, dynasty Superflex hell no. 

[Ray_T 591]

15 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

It depends on the league type. Redraft yes, dynasty Superflex hell no. 

agreed.

I dont like these generalized statements because there are always formats where a statement like this may be wrong.

#1 rule of fantasy football is you make note of all the rules and play according to those rules.

not all leagues run a standard format or a PPR format.    and the way you draft in dynasty will differ from the way you draft in a redraft league.

and NFL drafting is different from both in most cases.

[Maximum Overkill 645]

5 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

not all leagues run a standard format or a PPR format.    and the way you draft in dynasty will differ from the way you draft in a redraft league.

and NFL drafting is different from both in most cases.

I easily get confused when discussing fantasy values, etc. I'm in a few Dynasty Leagues and our seasons never end, that's where my mind always goes .

I'll do a few redraft leagues but I prefer the roster building of Dynasty. 

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

It depends on the league type. Redraft yes, dynasty Superflex hell no. 

Agreed.  Me only redraft.  

[Maximum Overkill 645]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Agreed.  Me only redraft.  

You should get into dynasty, you'd enjoy it. The season never ends, it's fun. 

[weepaws 2,460]

2 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

You should get into dynasty, you'd enjoy it. The season never ends, it's fun. 

Started play ff back in 87, I have been in dynasty and keeper leagues, enjoyed them for a while, but i enjoy redraft more.  

[Maximum Overkill 645]

6 hours ago, weepaws said:

but i enjoy redraft more.

I'm the opposite. Redraft is fine if you're in a league with people you know. I also hate redraft leagues where nobody trades. That drives me crazy. 

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'm the opposite. Redraft is fine if you're in a league with people you know. I also hate redraft leagues where nobody trades. That drives me crazy. 

Yea nothing is worst than a dead league.  

[Maximum Overkill 645]

11 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Yea nothing is worst than a dead league.  

I was in one last year, it was miserable. Two people dropped off the planet and nobody else seemed to care. And this was a money League, I don't understand it. 

[weepaws 2,460]

29 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I was in one last year, it was miserable. Two people dropped off the planet and nobody else seemed to care. And this was a money League, I don't understand it. 

I’ve been in a few, come join this new league, doesn’t always seem to last the season, both of the league I’m in now have been around for a long period of time.  Plus both are money leagues, that hurt when you lose, makes a difference imo.  

[Ray_T 591]

15 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I easily get confused when discussing fantasy values, etc. I'm in a few Dynasty Leagues and our seasons never end, that's where my mind always goes .

I'll do a few redraft leagues but I prefer the roster building of Dynasty. 

I have found the people who stay and participate in the offseason are usually in a keeper/dynasty league.

the redrafters usually disappear until after the NFL draft, then they disappear again and come back when the exhibition season starts (spring training for the keeners)

[weepaws 2,460]

4 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I have found the people who stay and participate in the offseason are usually in a keeper/dynasty league.

the redrafters usually disappear until after the NFL draft, then they disappear again and come back when the exhibition season starts (spring training for the keeners)

I wouldn’t call it disappearing, I would call it nothing to do. Keepers, Dynasty leagues take up more time, but that’s not for many, it’s like playing house.  Imo. 

[Maximum Overkill 645]

15 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I wouldn’t call it disappearing, I would call it nothing to do. Keepers, Dynasty leagues take up more time, but that’s not for many, it’s like playing house.  Imo. 

The off-season in dynasty is usually roster building time. There's more going on in the off season then during the regular season. 

I love it 

[weepaws 2,460]

31 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

The off-season in dynasty is usually roster building time. There's more going on in the off season then during the regular season. 

I love it 

That’s why I stop playing dynasty, I have to many important things to do then to bother with ff during the off-season.  

I did have a time in my life that playing GM was fun, but it didn’t last long.  

[weepaws 2,460]

The off-season in redraft is a time to prepare for building a winner, in dynasty or keepers you spend more time just building a future, I like going for the win now, not in the future.  

[Ray_T 591]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

I wouldn’t call it disappearing, I would call it nothing to do. Keepers, Dynasty leagues take up more time, but that’s not for many, it’s like playing house.  Imo. 

I'm not saying theres not a reason for the disappearance.   you're right.  nothing to do.   so why waste your time.   most people will worry about next years draft next year.

thats all there is to it.   but they are still mostly gone this time of year.