2024 Top 10 Rbs - let's discuss

[Super Cubs 153]

4 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I am betting he wins offensive player of the year with 25 total tds in an 18 season game.  22 rushing tds, 2 recieving and 1 passing. 

I'll take that bet

what are you putting up?

[kilroy69 1,215]

25 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

I'll take that bet

what are you putting up?

I have 600 on betmgm for him to be offensive player of the year at  mostly +5000 for a possible payout of 30k. I got him twice for +6000 before it dropped to +5000 and it is even lower at Fanduel and Espnbet.  I will happily admit I was wrong in this thread if I am. That being said I am not just blowing smoke. I am backing it up with my money and basing it on stats the Ravins had last year with a less effective Gus Edwards who scored 13 rushing tds with 800 yards on less than 200 carries.  Henry has less than 280 carries twice since 2018 and they were still over 200. He is on an incentive laden contract where both the ravens have a reason to run it 300 times and he has a reason to run it 300 times. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

28 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

have 600 on betmgm for him to be offensive player of the year at  mostly +5000 for a possible payout of 30k.

You should of just burned that money. 

A RB who doesn't catch balls has NO SHOT of winning Offensive Player Of The Year. 

[kilroy69 1,215]

5 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

You should of just burned that money. 

A RB who doesn't catch balls has NO SHOT of winning Offensive Player Of The Year. 

This is actually not true. Of the last 5 rbs that were offensive players of the year 4 of them were not pass catchers. McCaffery is the odds on favorite but the last time any player won back to back offensive player of the year was 23 years ago.  Henry has the chance to put up a ton of TDS  just within the 10 this year.   If McCaffery statistically is not going to win it then Henry has as good of a chance as anyone if he can hit 20+ tds.  Edwards scored once every 15 times he rushed last year.  Give King Henry 300 carries (something he has done 3 time and barely missed out on last year)  on that same number it comes out to around 19 tds on the low end. Say he had a few multi td games and he can push over 20 easy.  

[Ray_T 739]

7 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

You should of just burned that money. 

A RB who doesn't catch balls has NO SHOT of winning Offensive Player Of The Year. 

I have to agree with Kilroy......if he scores 20 TD he has a shot.

but thats an awful lot of TD's to predict for anybody.  no matter how good the team and the offense is.  

an RB has only scored 20 TD 11 times ever since the league formed.

 

[kilroy69 1,215]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I have to agree with Kilroy......if he scores 20 TD he has a shot.

but thats an awful lot of TD's to predict for anybody.  no matter how good the team and the offense is.  

an RB has only scored 20 TD 11 times ever since the league formed.

 

I am going by a mixture of what the ravens did last year and what Henry has historically done. At some point he is going to fall off. So far he has not.  Last year when the Titans were ahead by 8 or more henry averaged 6.7 ypc. Baltimore had 11 of those games last year. 

[Ray_T 739]

48 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I am going by a mixture of what the ravens did last year and what Henry has historically done. At some point he is going to fall off. So far he has not.  Last year when the Titans were ahead by 8 or more henry averaged 6.7 ypc. Baltimore had 11 of those games last year. 

8 games where they've averaged 6.7 per carry?   wow!

[weepaws 3,152]

Ff owners are taking notice, in 12 team mocks, ppr/non ppr, he going late first rd, we need to stop praising Henry now. 

He’s going to be to three in the Rbs slot. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

He also never had a Lamar to hoard carries. 

• Henry’s yards per carry dipped to 4.2, matching his career low from 2017 (his second season).
• Henry’s carries per game decreased significantly with Tyjae Spears’ arrival, from 21.8 to 16.5. It was Henry’s first time averaging fewer than 20.2 since he became the starter in 2019.

[weepaws 3,152]

7 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

He also never had a Lamar to hoard carries. 

• Henry’s yards per carry dipped to 4.2, matching his career low from 2017 (his second season).
• Henry’s carries per game decreased significantly with Tyjae Spears’ arrival, from 21.8 to 16.5. It was Henry’s first time averaging fewer than 20.2 since he became the starter in 2019.

And yet, Henry finished top ten in ff points in the rb slot in, ppr/half/ non ppr.  And now he’s playing on a much better team. 

And Henry is a lot better player than Edwards or any of the other RBs on the Ravens last season.  Remember in 2022 Jackson only had 112 rush att, he’s going to run less with Henry on board, without question.  

Thanks. 

[Ray_T 739]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

And yet, Henry finished top ten in ff points in the rb slot in, ppr/half/ non ppr.  And now he’s playing on a much better team. 

And Henry is a lot better player than Edwards or any of the other RBs on the Ravens last season.  Remember in 2022 Jackson only had 112 rush att, he’s going to run less with Henry on board, without question.  

I agree.    Henry probably will be slightly slower than last year.   Thats what happens at this age.   but the fact he will be running behind a better line and playing on a better team should make up for all of that.

the only thing that really scares me is his age.   once RB's pass the age of 30 2 possible scenarios can play out to prevent your RB from being worth their pick:

1) they are less productive due to skill deterioration associated with their age.  (addressed mostly in the conversation on this thread)

2) they are at far higher risk of injury.

and from what I can tell (though I have not done any formal analysis)    the first option and the second option each take up around 50% of the cases where the RB doesnt perform.

so the greater risk of injury is something none of us can quantify but the risk is there whether you want to believe it or not.

Personally I think if the dude stays healthy the sweet spot to draft him is on the turn between round 1 and 2.   but taking the health thing into account there is no doubt he should be a second round pick (in my opinion)    Normally I'd discount even more than this and say he should be a third round pick, but Henry has been overall fairly durable as a RB, so I'm giving him a bit of latitude on that.

Either way, if I was in a redraft league, I would not be taking him in round 1 and that likely means he wont be on my team.   I am ok with this.   I love Henry, but at this age (moreso than any other age) it is important not to  overpay for a player who fits into this category.   and I think a lot of people will overpay for Henry this year.

[GobbleDog 978]

17 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

I am going by a mixture of what the ravens did last year and what Henry has historically done. At some point he is going to fall off. So far he has not.  Last year when the Titans were ahead by 8 or more henry averaged 6.7 ypc. Baltimore had 11 of those games last year. 

Gus Edwards led the NFL in rushing attempts inside the five yard line (23). 

Henry winning OPY at 50-1 odds seems reasonable.  Good luck and if he gets close I'll be rooting for ya!

[kilroy69 1,215]

Just now, GobbleDog said:

Gus Edwards led the NFL in rushing attempts inside the five yard line (23). 

Henry winning OPY at 50-1 odds seems reasonable.  Good luck and if he gets close I'll be rooting for ya!

Thanks. Like I said I am comfortable if I am wrong but given the player and his situation I feel like the odds are good enough to try.  

[weepaws 3,152]

58 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I agree.    Henry probably will be slightly slower than last year.   Thats what happens at this age.   but the fact he will be running behind a better line and playing on a better team should make up for all of that.

the only thing that really scares me is his age.   once RB's pass the age of 30 2 possible scenarios can play out to prevent your RB from being worth their pick:

1) they are less productive due to skill deterioration associated with their age.  (addressed mostly in the conversation on this thread)

2) they are at far higher risk of injury.

and from what I can tell (though I have not done any formal analysis)    the first option and the second option each take up around 50% of the cases where the RB doesnt perform.

so the greater risk of injury is something none of us can quantify but the risk is there whether you want to believe it or not.

Personally I think if the dude stays healthy the sweet spot to draft him is on the turn between round 1 and 2.   but taking the health thing into account there is no doubt he should be a second round pick (in my opinion)    Normally I'd discount even more than this and say he should be a third round pick, but Henry has been overall fairly durable as a RB, so I'm giving him a bit of latitude on that.

Either way, if I was in a redraft league, I would not be taking him in round 1 and that likely means he wont be on my team.   I am ok with this.   I love Henry, but at this age (moreso than any other age) it is important not to  overpay for a player who fits into this category.   and I think a lot of people will overpay for Henry this year.

There have been some really good Rbs that had great seasons after turning 30, with a lot more mileage than Henry has.  In my non ppr league, I’ll take him in rd 1. I think the closer to my draft, which is late August, his adp is going to be rd 1.  

[Ray_T 739]

28 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Gus Edwards led the NFL in rushing attempts inside the five yard line (23). 

Henry winning OPY at 50-1 odds seems reasonable.  Good luck and if he gets close I'll be rooting for ya!

me too.   dont get me wrong, I'm not a hater.  I'd love nothing more than to see Henry pull this off.   

[Ray_T 739]

3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

me too.   dont get me wrong, I'm not a hater.  I'd love nothing more than to see Henry pull this off.   

to be clear, I was a major Tomlinson fan and this debate looks an awful lot like the debate they had about LT when he turned 30.   but the dropoff was there.  Though I think his issue was more with a nagging foot injury that affected his on field production.    next year he had a bounce back year of sorts, but was never a top 5 RB after he turned 30.

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

You people are insane. You do know that Henry will be competing with Lamar for designed RedZone rushing attempts? They aren't going to stop designing running plays for Lamar because Henry is there. That's Lamar's only strength. 

[kilroy69 1,215]

29 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

You people are insane. You do know that Henry will be competing with Lamar for designed RedZone rushing attempts? They aren't going to stop designing running plays for Lamar because Henry is there. That's Lamar's only strength. 

The majority of the redzone carries were  actually designed to go to the RB even with Jackson back there. In the last 3 years he has had 13, 9 and 8 redzone attempts. I do not think they will stop using him but scaling him back to 8 is not out of the question considering they have never had a rb like henry to rely on. 

[Ray_T 739]

40 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

The majority of the redzone carries were  actually designed to go to the RB even with Jackson back there. In the last 3 years he has had 13, 9 and 8 redzone attempts. I do not think they will stop using him but scaling him back to 8 is not out of the question considering they have never had a rb like henry to rely on. 

they will for sure still use him.

but likely a bit less.   the advantage is that they stop the defense from keying on one specific person running the ball.  they have to account for the possibility it could be either of them.    That completely will change the way a Defense needs to defend the red zone runs and will make it more difficult.

I suspect what will happen is they will use Henry exclusively the first couple of games to get people thinking hes the guy, then they will start to sneak some Lamar carries back in.   At some point they will find a balance that will keep defenses unbalanced and that's where they will try to stay.

my belief is that one in 3 or one in 4 will still go to Jackson.

[Ray_T 739]

another possibility is they go Henry almost exclusively until the post season and then hit them with the changeup come playoff time.   Team is good enough that they can play the long game and not tip their hand to show this until playoff time.

[GobbleDog 978]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

You people are insane. You do know that Henry will be competing with Lamar for designed RedZone rushing attempts? They aren't going to stop designing running plays for Lamar because Henry is there. That's Lamar's only strength. 

Jackson had 5 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line last year... scored once.

Goal line Tds aren't his "strength".  Designed runs from everywhere else is where he gets paid and his rushing stats were on the decline til last year's small spike. He still rushes more than most Qbs, but not like he did in years 2 and 3. Now entering year 7 with Henry in the backfield... Jackson will run, but probably not much from inside the 5. Coach will be calling Henry's number, just like they did with Edwards last year.

[weepaws 3,152]

19 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Jackson had 5 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line last year... scored once.

Goal line Tds aren't his "strength".  Designed runs from everywhere else is where he gets paid and his rushing stats were on the decline til last year's small spike. He still rushes more than most Qbs, but not like he did in years 2 and 3. Now entering year 7 with Henry in the backfield... Jackson will run, but probably not much from inside the 5. Coach will be calling Henry's number, just like they did with Edwards last year.

Winner

[LaChup 228]

Don't sleep on Marlon Mack.

[Ray_T 739]

6 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Jackson had 5 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line last year... scored once.

Goal line Tds aren't his "strength".  Designed runs from everywhere else is where he gets paid and his rushing stats were on the decline til last year's small spike. He still rushes more than most Qbs, but not like he did in years 2 and 3. Now entering year 7 with Henry in the backfield... Jackson will run, but probably not much from inside the 5. Coach will be calling Henry's number, just like they did with Edwards last year.

well, this is the direction they should be going.

Jackson is getting close to the age of 30.  so his Athleticism will start to fade soon enough.   if they keep running him he will be done by the time he hits 31.  similar to Cam Newton, Donovan McNabb, Mike Vick and most other running QB's you can name whose career ended likely sooner than it should have.

hes a good enough passer that he doesnt need to run the way he did.   The threat to run should be enough on most nights.   in important games when the defense is keying on the pass alone with some success, I could see him pulling this out of his bag of tricks to get the defense unbalanced before returning to his normal game, but I'll be clear this cannot be an every game strategy anymore.  if they do keep running him the way he has been his career wont last long.

I imagine the Henry add will take some of this burden off of his shoulders.   might as well beat up the old war horse who is still good in short yardage situations and preserve your 50 million dollar QB (or whatever value his contract is at... I fully admit I'm too lazy to look it up)

 

[weepaws 3,152]

Jackson is still going to run, he’s going to get some rushing tds, he scored 5 rushing tds last season. Edwards who’s no we’re near the quality of player that Henry is, Edwards had 13 rushing tds, despite Jackson scoring 5 rushing tds.  

Henry will score more rushing tds, plus he will catch a couple.  He’s going to be very worthy of a first rd pick. 

Pass on him, and another owner in your league will thank you when the season is done.  

 

[GobbleDog 978]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

He’s going to be very worthy of a first rd pick. 

Pass on him, and another owner in your league will thank you when the season is done. 

Even though I started this "Top 10 Rb" thread, I won't be drafting any of them. Taking early Rbs has proven to be a poor investment most years... in spite of knowing that I couldn't help myself when Chubb fell to me last year- "he's Mr. Reliable!" Oof. Last season's 1st and 2nd rd Rb's (weeks 1-17 ppr scoring):

Rb1 C. McCaffrey, finished 1st. Worked great!

Rb2 A. Eckler, finished 25th

Rb3 B. Robinson, finished 12th

Rb4 N. Chubb, finished 87th

Rb5 S. Barkley, finished 16th

Rb6 T. Pollard, finished 14th

Rb7 D. Henry, finished 10th. Not bad.

Rb8 J. Jacobs, finished 23rd

Rb 9 N. Harris, finished 24th

None of the Rbs exceeded their draft position and only one met their draft position - McCaff. The other eight had a median finish of 20th, despite relatively few major injuries (other than Chubb) and most missed very little playing time - it was just Rb variance. Among the Rbs that actually did finish top 10, most were drafted between rounds 3 and 5... lowest was Mostert (rd 10). Early Wr's:

Wr1 J. Jefferson, finished 37th

Wr2 J. Chase, finished 10th

Wr3 T. Hill, finished 2nd

Wr4 S. Diggs, finished 9th

Wr5 A.J. Brown, finished 4th

Wr6 G. Wilson, finished 23rd

Wr7 C. Lamb, finished 1st

Wr8 St. Brown, finished 3rd

Wr9 D. Adams, finished 11th

Median finish of 9th. Only two badly disappointed - Jefferson (injury) and WIlson (qb injury). The other seven were quite productive and owners were happy they drafted them. Qbs taken first two rounds - J. Allen, finished 1st. J. Hurts, finished 2nd, P. Mahomes finished 7th. Te taken first two rounds - T. Kelce finished 2nd.

There have been some years when drafting early Rb's turned out to be the right thing to do, typically with an unusual number of Wr or Qb injuries. But overwhelmingly, the safest investment for your most valuable draft capital has been non-Rbs.

[weepaws 3,152]

14 team non ppr, if I can get a early rd rb , I’m taking him.  

[weepaws 3,152]

Sounds like Corum is getting a lot of love from his coaches.  Beware K Williams owners.  

[Ray_T 739]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Sounds like Corum is getting a lot of love from his coaches.  Beware K Williams owners.  

they always talk up the rookies early in camp.  partly to give them a little confidence and partly to say hey we did a good job drafting.   and partly to create hype for the team and sell some tickets. 

this is a nothing burger.

[kilroy69 1,215]

I mentioned this in another thread but the odds of henry becoming player of the year have dropped from +7k to +6500 to +5000 and are now at at +4000 on betmgm. Fanduel is the only place offering +5k and a few are getting ahead of it by offering +3500

[weepaws 3,152]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

they always talk up the rookies early in camp.  partly to give them a little confidence and partly to say hey we did a good job drafting.   and partly to create hype for the team and sell some tickets. 

this is a nothing burger.

Not always, Corum was drafted to be their starting rb, and it’s going to start out as an RBBC. But he will take over.  Beware of owning K Williams and or drafting.  

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Not always, Corum was drafted to be their starting rb, and it’s going to start out as an RBBC. But he will take over.  Beware of owning K Williams and or drafting.  

People were paying 2nd round capital for Kyren. I tried warning them.  

 

[weepaws 3,152]

Just now, Maximum Overkill said:

People were paying 2nd round capital for Kyren. I tried warning them.  

 

His ADP in ppr has dropped into mid 3rd, but still mid 2rd in both half, and non ppr. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

9 minutes ago, weepaws said:

His ADP in ppr has dropped into mid 3rd, but still mid 2rd in both half, and non ppr. 

Wait and grab Corum much later, you're welcome everyone! 

[weepaws 3,152]

21 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Wait and grab Corum much later, you're welcome everyone! 

Two of my late rd rb Targets, Corum, Benson.  Corum ADP will be going up, he’s going to be an RBBC week one.  

[GobbleDog 978]

On 6/6/2024 at 1:57 PM, Ray_T said:

I actually think Javonte williams has an outside shot at becoming an RB1 this year.

I recently heard stats being discussed about WIlliams performance last year.... not good.  ProFootballFocus grades Rb's at the end of the season and out the Rb's who qualified to be graded, Williams ranked 56th out of 60 Rbs. Per NextGenStats Williams finished last in rushing yds over expectation and second to last in percentage of yds run over expectation. Out of the 23 Rbs with 200+ carries, Williams had the fewest runs over 20 yds (2).

Obviously he was coming off the knee injury and maybe he gets better, which happens sometimes.  Or maybe this is just who he now, which also happens. To top off Williams woes, there's articles circulating that he might not even make the final roster. Hopefully for him, the off-season conditioning improves his game and he hangs on to the top spot in Denver. Otherwise, say hello to Denver's Jalil McLoughlin who graded out as ProFootballFocus's 13th best Rb, and finished 3rd in their elusiveness rating. His breakaway percentage of 28% ranked 15th in the league and the dude has reliable hands with zero drops last year. If Sean Payton is looking for another Alvin Kamara type, he might have found him. Denver's o-coordinator has recently been hyping him up as well.

[Ray_T 739]

9 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I recently heard stats being discussed about WIlliams performance last year.... not good.  ProFootballFocus grades Rb's at the end of the season and out the Rb's who qualified to be graded, Williams ranked 56th out of 60 Rbs. Per NextGenStats Williams finished last in rushing yds over expectation and second to last in percentage of yds run over expectation. Out of the 23 Rbs with 200+ carries, Williams had the fewest runs over 20 yds (2).

Obviously he was coming off the knee injury and maybe he gets better, which happens sometimes.  Or maybe this is just who he now, which also happens. To top off Williams woes, there's articles circulating that he might not even make the final roster. Hopefully for him, the off-season conditioning improves his game and he hangs on to the top spot in Denver. Otherwise, say hello to Denver's Jalil McLoughlin who graded out as ProFootballFocus's 13th best Rb, and finished 3rd in their elusiveness rating. His breakaway percentage of 28% ranked 15th in the league and the dude has reliable hands with zero drops last year. If Sean Payton is looking for another Alvin Kamara type, he might have found him. Denver's o-coordinator has recently been hyping him up as well.

stats always go bad in the aftermath of an ACL injury. This is one of those cases where looking at the metrics in the year after the injury wont help you a lot.    the acceleration or burst isnt quite there, but moreso than that the lateral agility and ability to make sharp cuts.  thats the part where the injury really affects a RB.   and thats usually the last thing to return to form  when returning from this injury.   I wouldnt even look at last years stats other than maybe the last couple games of the year to see if we have seen improvement in the latter half of the year. 

you want to look at the previous year(s) when healthy.   that will give you a better indicator of what hes likely to look like when healthy.    that said, outside of the rookie year, the sample size is small. but the early part of 2022 looked promising prior to the injury.

the real thing you want to look at is what the team is doing in the offseason.   It does not look like they drafted anyone.    so they seem pretty confident in what they have.   and I dont see anyone on the roster who looks to be a legitimate threat to his job.   Given that, I truly think the team is fully committed to Javonte (for this year at least) so he has a chance to do some things.

of course how far this goes will also depend mostly on QB play and line play.  Bo Nix (or Stidham) have to at least be good enough that teams will see the pass game as a legit threat.   if that doesnt happen, defenses will stack the box,  key on the run and force that crappy QB to beat them through the air.   so in that scenario, he wont be much better than a low ranking RB2.

but if the QB play is decent I can see him having a very decent year.  especially if the line plays well  too.

[GobbleDog 978]

15 hours ago, Ray_T said:

stats always go bad in the aftermath of an ACL injury.

you want to look at the previous year(s) when healthy.   that will give you a better indicator of what hes likely to look like when healthy.  

Williams had multiple tears - ACL, LCL and PCL. Some Rb's never bounce back from that. Last year's performance wasn't encouraging, but hopefully another year removed helps.

[weepaws 3,152]

It’s a tough injury, Ja Williams was a speed guy with power, I think he’s going to lose some of that ability, it’s sad.  He might be the Broncos rb1, but I think it will be more like rb1a.  

[Ray_T 739]

8 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Williams had multiple tears - ACL, LCL and PCL. Some Rb's never bounce back from that. Last year's performance wasn't encouraging, but hopefully another year removed helps.

thats true.  some dont.  but that was more a thing that was the norm up until about 15 or 20 years ago.m

from what i've seen when you have multiple tears the recovery time is generally not as quick (usually at least 6 months longer) and If my memory is correct I was telling people not to draft him last year.

either way, in the last decade or two the medical technology has gotten a lot better.    dont get me wrong, multiple tears is still career threatening but not to the degree it was 20 years ago.   odds of a full recovery is generally good on ACL tears now.  on multiple tears I dont know the numbers to be honest but I do know that the recovery times and the ability to make a full recovery is a lot better than it was say.... 10-20 years ago.

biggest risk seems to be that in the year or two after the surgery, the player seems to be at higher risk of Meniscus and other soft tissue injuries.   I suspect thats a function of the muscles compensating for the repaired ACL/MCL.

Either way, it is certainly a risk factor.  I'm not gonna pretend its not.   but if the team felt his recovery wasnt where it needs to be why wouldnt they have gone out and drafted or signed another RB?    This action (or should I say inaction) leads me to believe there is nothing to see here.

I still wouldnt be entirely surprised to see him miss a game or two.  but given how confident the team seems, I'm willing to take a shot on him at his ADP (whatever that happens to be)

if that puts him into RB3 territory, I'd be totally happy to have him as my RB3.   if healthy, real good upside and at that price I'm not paying for the upside.