2024 Projections & Rankings

[TBayXXXVII 2,328]

On 6/9/2024 at 12:39 AM, Ray_T said:

the NFL did at times too.   there were some games (especially early in the year) where they played to stuff the run and dared him to throw the ball.    but he turned out to be a bit better than everyone thought hed be.

I fully agree the line additions via the draft should help though sometimes it takes a year for an O lineman to fully get their feet under them at the pro level.

that said, if we assume that Barton is a plug and play guy (and he could potentially be) that would be a difference maker for this offense.

Don't let volume fool you on Mayfield.  Yes, his yards and TD's were both in the top 10... for fantasy purposes, that's fine.  As for the rest though, the vast majority of other metrics like comp% (19th), ypa (18th), QBR (19th), etc, he was in the bottom half of the league.  He did that with 2 excellent WR's, a great pass catching RB, AND a top 10 pass blocking offensive line, I believe PFF had them 7th (someone else had them 9th or 10th, can't remember who though).  Note, even with a top 10 pass blocking OLine, he still was sacked the 6th most in NFL... meaning, he's the bigger problem on the sack front, than his line is.

Going further... 

• Passing success rate: 20th
• Net yards per pass attempt: 18th
• On Target pass percentage: 20th

But, as I said regarding @GobbleDog's assertions on White, white White isn't a great running, he certainly isn't the problem.  If you think that the Bucs adequately addressed their run blocking issues (I showed him they were 31st in 2022 and 32nd in 2023 in run block win rate [which he's apparently ignoring... and that's fine]...  and heard on the Fantasy sport channel (SiriusXM), that in each of the last 2 seasons, White was 26th or worse in yards gained before contract), and you think Mayfield is an adequate passer, then you should believe that White should be a legit RB1 this year.  I'm not sure they did address all their needs and I'm not sold on Mayfield being an adequate QB.

As of right now, I believe White will get similar touches to last year, so my suggestion is to rank him based on last year's performance and possible upgrades or downgrades of his supporting case.  Also take note that last year they had one of the 7 easiest schedules and this year they're in the top 8.

[Ray_T 686]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Don't let volume fool you on Mayfield.  Yes, his yards and TD's were both in the top 10... for fantasy purposes, that's fine.  As for the rest though, the vast majority of other metrics like comp% (19th), ypa (18th), QBR (19th), etc, he was in the bottom half of the league.  He did that with 2 excellent WR's, a great pass catching RB, AND a top 10 pass blocking offensive line, I believe PFF had them 7th (someone else had them 9th or 10th, can't remember who though).  Note, even with a top 10 pass blocking OLine, he still was sacked the 6th most in NFL... meaning, he's the bigger problem on the sack front, than his line is.

Going further... 

• Passing success rate: 20th
• Net yards per pass attempt: 18th
• On Target pass percentage: 20th

But, as I said regarding @GobbleDog's assertions on White, white White isn't a great running, he certainly isn't the problem.  If you think that the Bucs adequately addressed their run blocking issues (I showed him they were 31st in 2022 and 32nd in 2023 in run block win rate [which he's apparently ignoring... and that's fine]...  and heard on the Fantasy sport channel (SiriusXM), that in each of the last 2 seasons, White was 26th or worse in yards gained before contract), and you think Mayfield is an adequate passer, then you should believe that White should be a legit RB1 this year.  I'm not sure they did address all their needs and I'm not sold on Mayfield being an adequate QB.

As of right now, I believe White will get similar touches to last year, so my suggestion is to rank him based on last year's performance and possible upgrades or downgrades of his supporting case.  Also take note that last year they had one of the 7 easiest schedules and this year they're in the top 8.

thanks for the excellent analysis.

I thought Mayfield had a good year because teams were keying more on the run to force him to throw (thus the volume you speak of)

but knowing he had a very easy schedule and now has a difficult one (relatively),   I am not going to double check your work on the easy vs hard schedule thing as youve been spot on on this type of analysis in the past.     so assuming you are spot on on this one more time I think the add on the line will (at best) allow him to not completely crater statistically.  but thats assuming the kid is productive on day 1.   that doesnt always happen.

so I think I will downgrade Mayfield in my rankings some.   not sure by how much yet but betting on a repeat year is a coin flip at best based on the info you just provided.

[Ray_T 686]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

thanks for the excellent analysis.

I thought Mayfield had a good year because teams were keying more on the run to force him to throw (thus the volume you speak of)

but knowing he had a very easy schedule and now has a difficult one (relatively),   I am not going to double check your work on the easy vs hard schedule thing as youve been spot on on this type of analysis in the past.     so assuming you are spot on on this one more time I think the add on the line will (at best) allow him to not completely crater statistically.  but thats assuming the kid is productive on day 1.   that doesnt always happen.

so I think I will downgrade Mayfield in my rankings some.   not sure by how much yet but betting on a repeat year is a coin flip at best based on the info you just provided.

I trust the homer on this type of stuff more than anyone else.    he likely gets daily info on this team that the rest of us do not.

[weepaws 2,809]

I looking forward to streaming Mayfield. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,328]

21 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

thanks for the excellent analysis.

I thought Mayfield had a good year because teams were keying more on the run to force him to throw (thus the volume you speak of)

but knowing he had a very easy schedule and now has a difficult one (relatively),   I am not going to double check your work on the easy vs hard schedule thing as youve been spot on on this type of analysis in the past.     so assuming you are spot on on this one more time I think the add on the line will (at best) allow him to not completely crater statistically.  but thats assuming the kid is productive on day 1.   that doesnt always happen.

so I think I will downgrade Mayfield in my rankings some.   not sure by how much yet but betting on a repeat year is a coin flip at best based on the info you just provided.

When we know more about Irving, that's when I'd be more worried... or less, about White.

I'd actually expect similar numbers from Mayfield.  I believe the team will be about what they were last year, just the record won't be as good... I'm thinking 6 to 8 wins, where last year I had them 7 to 9.  Forced to put a number on it, I'd say 7.  Reason being, I because I think they'll be losing a little more often, I think they throw a little bit more.  His efficiency may be worse than last year, but I'd still expect about 4k and 28 because the volume will still be there, if not higher.  It's why I think White should still be ok if he's still getting the touches.  He may lose a carry or two for say 4 ypc, but gain a reception.  The net is already a plus, before we even put a yardage total on it.

I'd put Mayfield down as mid-range QB2.  I'd expect him to put up totals, similar to Tua.  I'd say somewhere between 16 and 20.

[TBayXXXVII 2,328]

14 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I looking forward to streaming Mayfield. 

That's the right play.

[GobbleDog 909]

In the five years Zac Taylor has been Bengals head coach... only once did his Rb finish with fewer than 210 carries.  In '20 Mixon only played six games and still had 119 carries.

Mike, I demand you increase Moss's carries!  169 is a slap in the face. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,328]

On 6/7/2024 at 6:01 PM, weepaws said:

You think Irving bites into his work load much? 

 

On 6/7/2024 at 8:18 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

Not sure yet.  Not enough information on him as of right now.

To update my prior post, I think Irving clearly is the backup and Sean Tucker is a JAG and he and Edmonds will be getting scraps.  I expect a similar workload from White and from Irving, I'd expect him to give White a spell here and there.  If I had to put a number on it, I'd say that we should expect about 20 touches a game, similar to last year.  I can see Irving getting about 6 and the rest of the backfield getting 1 or 2.

I think the line will be slightly better and I think the play calling and game planning will be exceptionally better (Jonathan Brooks [dynasty] owners should be worried - Dave Canales issue, not a Brooks issue).  To put a number on it... I'd say White has 275 carries at 4.1 ypc with 8 TD and 50 receptions for 450 yards and 2 TD's.  I think his fantasy numbers should be similar to last year.  In my money league last year, he finished with 269.9 points... I think he'll be around that this year.  My projections total 267.75.  Where that ranks... 

Last year, the Bucs ran a lot of plays where they're designed and encouraged to run up the middle.  That won't happen this year.  Last year, the blocking scheme was very vanilla where guys are told to push straight ahead.  That won't happen this year.  Dave Canales in his first year as an OC, was terrible.  We'll have to see if he does better as an OC.

I think the Bucs will be a 7-win team, hence, losing more often than last year.  With that, comes more pass attempts.  I think Mayfield throws the ball about 625 times, compared to 566 last year.  Here's the thing.  If by some chance I'm wrong about the 7 wins and they win like, 9 or more (I doubt it, because, well, we have Baker Mayfield), I think the projections stay the same, the numbers will just come in the earlier parts of the game and not garbage time.

 

From a WR/passing game perspective... last year, Godwin and Evans were on the outsides and ran their routes from the side they lined up on, the vast majority of plays.  That won't happen this year.  Expect Evans and Jared McMillan to be on the wings with Godwin in the slot (on Evans side more often than not), the bulk of the time.  That happened 32% of the time last year.  Expect that number to be closer to 50 to 55% this year... possible way higher.  In 2019, Godwin was WR2 and lined up in the slot 50% of the snaps.  In 2020 and 2021 he lined up in the slot over 55% of the time.  In 2020, he missed 4 games, but his fpg ranked as WR15...  with Gronk and Brown on the team.  In 2021, he was WR15 in total points (missed 3 games), he was WR8 at 17.9 fpg.

I expect Jared McMillan to be quite involved, more involved than Palmer was as the WR3 last year.  Palmer got 68 targets, only 39 receptions.  I think McMillan gets closer to 80 targets and pulls in about 55.  Palmer will probably be around 45 targets and 20 receptions and used primarily as the "go deep" guy.

[weepaws 2,809]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

To update my prior post, I think Irving clearly is the backup and Sean Tucker is a JAG and he and Edmonds will be getting scraps.  I expect a similar workload from White and from Irving, I'd expect him to give White a spell here and there.  If I had to put a number on it, I'd say that we should expect about 20 touches a game, similar to last year.  I can see Irving getting about 6 and the rest of the backfield getting 1 or 2.

I think the line will be slightly better and I think the play calling and game planning will be exceptionally better (Jonathan Brooks [dynasty] owners should be worried - Dave Canales issue, not a Brooks issue).  To put a number on it... I'd say White has 275 carries at 4.1 ypc with 8 TD and 50 receptions for 450 yards and 2 TD's.  I think his fantasy numbers should be similar to last year.  In my money league last year, he finished with 269.9 points... I think he'll be around that this year.  My projections total 267.75.  Where that ranks... 

Last year, the Bucs ran a lot of plays where they're designed and encouraged to run up the middle.  That won't happen this year.  Last year, the blocking scheme was very vanilla where guys are told to push straight ahead.  That won't happen this year.  Dave Canales in his first year as an OC, was terrible.  We'll have to see if he does better as an OC.

I think the Bucs will be a 7-win team, hence, losing more often than last year.  With that, comes more pass attempts.  I think Mayfield throws the ball about 625 times, compared to 566 last year.  Here's the thing.  If by some chance I'm wrong about the 7 wins and they win like, 9 or more (I doubt it, because, well, we have Baker Mayfield), I think the projections stay the same, the numbers will just come in the earlier parts of the game and not garbage time.

 

From a WR/passing game perspective... last year, Godwin and Evans were on the outsides and ran their routes from the side they lined up on, the vast majority of plays.  That won't happen this year.  Expect Evans and Jared McMillan to be on the wings with Godwin in the slot (on Evans side more often than not), the bulk of the time.  That happened 32% of the time last year.  Expect that number to be closer to 50 to 55% this year... possible way higher.  In 2019, Godwin was WR2 and lined up in the slot 50% of the snaps.  In 2020 and 2021 he lined up in the slot over 55% of the time.  In 2020, he missed 4 games, but his fpg ranked as WR15...  with Gronk and Brown on the team.  In 2021, he was WR15 in total points (missed 3 games), he was WR8 at 17.9 fpg.

I expect Jared McMillan to be quite involved, more involved than Palmer was as the WR3 last year.  Palmer got 68 targets, only 39 receptions.  I think McMillan gets closer to 80 targets and pulls in about 55.  Palmer will probably be around 45 targets and 20 receptions and used primarily as the "go deep" guy.

Thank you, great update about those players. With my two drafts coming up, this news is important .  

[gcmmidwest 120]

On 6/18/2024 at 2:39 PM, weepaws said:

I looking forward to streaming Mayfield. 

If you draft a quarterback you'll likely not lose like you did last year 

[Mike FF Today 671]

On 7/31/2024 at 5:02 PM, GobbleDog said:

In the five years Zac Taylor has been Bengals head coach... only once did his Rb finish with fewer than 210 carries.  In '20 Mixon only played six games and still had 119 carries.

Mike, I demand you increase Moss's carries!  169 is a slap in the face. 

I'm not sure I'm going to get there. This should be a pretty even workload split for the season.