Illegal Immigration and the Impact on National Home Prices

[Maximum Overkill 2,434]

41 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Yes, thanks for agreeing with me (and disagreeing with Vance) that illegals weren’t driving up overall home prices nationally  

I will say that Illegal Aliens did drive prices up in the sense that they cost the Builder/GC a lot of money with all the callbacks and warranty issues due to sporty work. That would be the only argument that anyone could have. The quality has definitely gone down due to slave wages and under skilled illegal aliens in the trades. 

[TimHauck 3,306]

Inspired by your comment in a different thread, @jonnyutah can you share the source you used to determine rents were apparently tanking in “the southwest”?

Here’s Zillow for example:

National: -2.4%

Phoenix: -3.4% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/phoenix-az/)

Houston: +1.3% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/houston-tx/)

Albuquerque: +3% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/albuquerque-nm/)

San Antonio: -2.4% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/san-antonio-tx/)

 

So I may need to take back saying I agreed with you, and you may not be right.  But if you have data that says otherwise please share.  The fact that rent appears to be decreasing nationally, yet increasing in cities like Houston with traditionally large illegal immigrant populations, is further evidence that illegal immigration is not a significant factor in home prices.  And at best, you could maybe claim the difference in national trend and a particular city can be explained by mass deportations, but among most of the larger cities in the southwest, only Phoenix even has that (by 1%).  And of course Phoenix is no stranger to real estate bubbles of which many (including @edjr I’m sure) believe we are in one that has little if anything to do with illegal immigration.

[TimHauck 3,306]

On 10/30/2025 at 9:48 AM, TimHauck said:

Inspired by your comment in a different thread, @jonnyutah can you share the source you used to determine rents were apparently tanking in “the southwest”?

Here’s Zillow for example:

National: -2.4%

Phoenix: -3.4% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/phoenix-az/)

Houston: +1.3% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/houston-tx/)

Albuquerque: +3% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/albuquerque-nm/)

San Antonio: -2.4% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/san-antonio-tx/)

 

So I may need to take back saying I agreed with you, and you may not be right.  But if you have data that says otherwise please share.  The fact that rent appears to be decreasing nationally, yet increasing in cities like Houston with traditionally large illegal immigrant populations, is further evidence that illegal immigration is not a significant factor in home prices.  And at best, you could maybe claim the difference in national trend and a particular city can be explained by mass deportations, but among most of the larger cities in the southwest, only Phoenix even has that (by 1%).  And of course Phoenix is no stranger to real estate bubbles of which many (including @edjr I’m sure) believe we are in one that has little if anything to do with illegal immigration.

Bump for @jonnyutah, are you going to share your source for “what’s happening to rents in the Southwest”?

[jonnyutah 541]

On 10/30/2025 at 6:48 AM, TimHauck said:

Inspired by your comment in a different thread, @jonnyutah can you share the source you used to determine rents were apparently tanking in “the southwest”?

Here’s Zillow for example:

National: -2.4%

Phoenix: -3.4% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/phoenix-az/)

Houston: +1.3% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/houston-tx/)

Albuquerque: +3% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/albuquerque-nm/)

San Antonio: -2.4% (https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/san-antonio-tx/)

 

So I may need to take back saying I agreed with you, and you may not be right.  But if you have data that says otherwise please share.  The fact that rent appears to be decreasing nationally, yet increasing in cities like Houston with traditionally large illegal immigrant populations, is further evidence that illegal immigration is not a significant factor in home prices.  And at best, you could maybe claim the difference in national trend and a particular city can be explained by mass deportations, but among most of the larger cities in the southwest, only Phoenix even has that (by 1%).  And of course Phoenix is no stranger to real estate bubbles of which many (including @edjr I’m sure) believe we are in one that has little if anything to do with illegal immigration.

More stupidity to deal with. Omg sorry i didnt immediately answer you while i was suspended!!! Let me get right on it! 

Houston has never been considered part of the southwest. You show yourself immediately as having an agenda. 

The three largest population centers in the southwest are the las vegas valley, the valley of the sun, and el paso. 

All three are experiencing declines.

New mexico is the outlier currently, but of course it is. It is a booming new tech area with a low starting population. 

[TimHauck 3,306]

1 hour ago, jonnyutah said:

More stupidity to deal with. Omg sorry i didnt immediately answer you while i was suspended!!! Let me get right on it! 

Houston has never been considered part of the southwest. You show yourself immediately as having an agenda. 

The three largest population centers in the southwest are the las vegas valley, the valley of the sun, and el paso. 

All three are experiencing declines.

New mexico is the outlier currently, but of course it is. It is a booming new tech area with a low starting population. 

Didn’t realize you were suspended, it wasn’t me.  While you’re wrong a lot, I don’t recall seeing you say anything really worthy of being suspended for.

I’m a lifelong east coaster, I always considered Texas as a whole to be part of the Southwest but I’ll accept your definition.  But of course Houston still hurts your claim of mass deportations impacting housing costs because there’s still a crap ton of illegals there.

But lol that you’d claim New Mexico is an outlier, while simultaneously using Las Vegas for your argument.  If there’s one city that shouldn’t be used as a comparison for others in almost any category, it’s probably Las Vegas.  I’m sure there are so many other factors going on there that are more culpable for price declines, such as the expansion of gambling in other places, Bidenflation and Tarifflation giving people less disposable income to visit, etc.

And even places like Phoenix (and El Paso too) look to be barely down any more than the country as a whole.   Is your big revelation that mass deportations may have resulted in reduced housing costs by at most, somewhere between 0.5-1%?