top qbs against 2nd tier backs/wrs

[big money 0]

.5 ppr, 4 pts throwing td and 6 pts rush/receive

 

say mid to late second round and your pick comes up - do you grab a top qb (brees/rodgers) if available or grab a 2nd back (stacy, bell, ellington, morris, martin, etc) or grab a wr (cobb, allen, vjax, or julius thomas/gronk) assuming that a brown, nelson and jeffreys are gone. i will have a top 4 rb to start.

 

i want to wait and grab a qb later in the draft bc it is so deep but its also very hard to pass on a guy like brees bc of his consistency

 

thoughts? advice for this rookie?

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

.5 ppr, 4 pts throwing td and 6 pts rush/receive

 

say mid to late second round and your pick comes up - do you grab a top qb (brees/rodgers) if available or grab a 2nd back (stacy, bell, ellington, morris, martin, etc) or grab a wr (cobb, allen, vjax, or julius thomas/gronk) assuming that a brown, nelson and jeffreys are gone. i will have a top 4 rb to start.

 

i want to wait and grab a qb later in the draft bc it is so deep but its also very hard to pass on a guy like brees bc of his consistency

 

thoughts? advice for this rookie?

 

 

yes....this.

[tanatastic 2,061]

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=435185

 

this thread is talking about taking qbs early, 6 vs 4pnts and general qb theory all in one with some good thoughts from different people.

[big money 0]

great thanks tanatastic

[MDC 5,891]

You take Brees without a moments hesitation and enjoy a weekly advantage over nearly every team in your league.

[weepaws 2,460]

Two starting QBS I am looking real early . One starting QB I am looking WR and RB still in the second .

[tanatastic 2,061]

You take Brees without a moments hesitation and enjoy a weekly advantage over nearly every team in your league.

Except road games where Brees is drastically worse and has been for the last 4 years. I did a pretty eye opening study and found that he averages something like 33 points at home vs 18points away, something crazy like that. In 8 road games last year he had 6gms of 1td or less and the other 2 he threw 2tds. Adding up the year end stats and dividing by 16 gms doesnt tell the whole story sometimes. But I see your point, id just rather have rodgers in that case than brees. Oh and I did the same study for Rodgers ove rthe last 4 years...almost dead even stats on the road if not even better sometimes.

[MDC 5,891]

Brees has averaged something like 43 TDs and over 5,000 yards over the past 3 years. He is infinitely more likely to give this owner an advantage at that position than whatever questionable tier 2 RB he drafts. This is a no brained for me.

[big money 0]

i like the research chong li

 

dux like put up your dukes

[tanatastic 2,061]

Brees has averaged something like 43 TDs and over 5,000 yards over the past 3 years. He is infinitely more likely to give this owner an advantage at that position than whatever questionable tier 2 RB he drafts. This is a no brained for me.

In my post I specifically said that you cant just look at the averages in this case. I looked at actual game logs and found an actual trend that shows him killing your team on the road and throwing 3-4tds at home. It prob deserves its own thread really..

 

Im sure Brees owners loved having him single handedly put them in an 0-2 hole last year with 2 1td road games to start the season. But the end of year numbers are there so it doesnt matter right? Trust me I was a huge Brees fan before a few days ago when I dug into this research and actually looked at game logs. Hes a mile behind rodgers for me now.

[MDC 5,891]

In my post I specifically said that you cant just look at the averages in this case. I looked at actual game logs and found an actual trend that shows him killing your team on the road and throwing 3-4tds at home. It prob deserves its own thread really..

That's an interesting stat and I appreciate it. Personally though, I can take average / above average in half the games if my QB is killing it in the other half. Your numbers may be off but 18 TDs in 8 games is probably the best you can hope for out of later round QBs during their "good" weeks.

 

Brees' bust potential is much lower and his odds of giving you a weekly advantage are much greater than almost any RB you are likely to get in the middle / late 2nd. Personally I'm taking the QB who's virtually assured of finishing Top 3 over the 12-15 RB, who is far more likely to get injured even aside from the outright bust risk.

 

If we were talking any QB outside the Top 3 I'd roll the dice on a RB, no way I'd pass up Brees in this spot.

[tanatastic 2,061]

That's an interesting stat and I appreciate it. Personally though, I can take average / above average in half the games if my QB is killing it in the other half. Your numbers may be off but 18 TDs in 8 games is probably the best you can hope for out of later round QBs during their "good" weeks.

 

Brees' bust potential is much lower and his odds of giving you a weekly advantage are much greater than almost any RB you are likely to get in the middle / late 2nd. Personally I'm taking the QB who's virtually assured of finishing Top 3 over the 12-15 RB, who is far more likely to get injured even aside from the outright bust risk.

 

If we were talking any QB outside the Top 3 I'd roll the dice on a RB, no way I'd pass up Brees in this spot.

Oh my bad, I corrected my first post, the 18 was fantasy points not tds. He only threw 12tds on the road in 8gms. vs 27 at home. I do see your viewpoint and I cant really argue on the merits a top 3 qb can bring.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

We debating consistency here?

 

You can do the same research on every QB out there and it's pretty consistent that QB under performs on the road, but at At 5,200 yards and 43 TD…are you really going to cherry pick?

[tanatastic 2,061]

We debating consistency here?

 

You can do the same research on every QB out there and it's pretty consistent that QB under performs on the road, but at At 5,200 yards and 43 TDare you really going to cherry pick?

That's what I thought as well, until I did more research on other qbs. Peyton and Rodgers both showed negligible differences or even improvement on the road in Rodgers case. I'm not a nit picker, a few tds here and there or even 10 wouldn't even cause me to think twice and I'm well aware how random football can be. The only reason I bothered to post is because in Brees case it's a huge difference. Bigger than any other productive qb I looked at.

 

The best way I can sum it up is this..With a guy like Rodgers, you get Aaron Rodgers every week. But with Brees, you only get Drew Brees when he's at home. On the road you get just an avg qb. I know on forums people tend to beg for their idea to be accepted, myself included. But I don't need to anymore, Iv done the research and gone behind the veil of end of the year numbers and have moved Brees to 3rd qb on my list behind Peyton and Rodgers.

[murf74 461]

That's what I thought as well, until I did more research on other qbs. Peyton and Rodgers both showed negligible differences or even improvement on the road in Rodgers case. I'm not a nit picker, a few tds here and there or even 10 wouldn't even cause me to think twice and I'm well aware how random football can be. The only reason I bothered to post is because in Brees case it's a huge difference. Bigger than any other productive qb I looked at.

 

The best way I can sum it up is this..With a guy like Rodgers, you get Aaron Rodgers every week. But with Brees, you only get Drew Brees when he's at home. On the road you get just an avg qb. I know on forums people tend to beg for their idea to be accepted, myself included. But I don't need to anymore, Iv done the research and gone behind the veil of end of the year numbers and have moved Brees to 3rd qb on my list behind Peyton and Rodgers.

Who do you rate as best qb for 2014? I think you are spot on with Brees analysis but you mention Arod but not Peyton. Who would be your best qb this year

[laxdad57 2]

Brees does much better when playing at home in a dome, Rodgers is just slightly better when he's not playing on the frozen tundra. Shocking!!

 

The top tier QB's give an advantage, but at a cost....the RB/WR's don't get any less risky after round 3.

[Prof Poopcicle 3]

That's what I thought as well, until I did more research on other qbs. Peyton and Rodgers both showed negligible differences or even improvement on the road in Rodgers case. I'm not a nit picker, a few tds here and there or even 10 wouldn't even cause me to think twice and I'm well aware how random football can be. The only reason I bothered to post is because in Brees case it's a huge difference. Bigger than any other productive qb I looked at.

 

The best way I can sum it up is this..With a guy like Rodgers, you get Aaron Rodgers every week. But with Brees, you only get Drew Brees when he's at home. On the road you get just an avg qb. I know on forums people tend to beg for their idea to be accepted, myself included. But I don't need to anymore, Iv done the research and gone behind the veil of end of the year numbers and have moved Brees to 3rd qb on my list behind Peyton and Rodgers.

 

This is good research and something to consider... is anyone worried about any kind of reinjury risk with Rodgers this year?

 

Last year I would've hated to be the guy who drafted Rodgers and Jordy Nelson on his team........ o wait.....

[MDC 5,891]

Good thing all the second tier RBs are consistent week to week.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Who do you rate as best qb for 2014? I think you are spot on with Brees analysis but you mention Arod but not Peyton. Who would be your best qb this year

Peyton only because he takes so few sacks, his injury risk is drastically lower. That's not to say I think he will out score Rodgers, I think Arod could score more fantasy points, but Peyton may be the safer of the 2 by a hair. I don't think that Rodgers is an especially high injury risk nor do I think Peyton will come close to last years stats.. Brees is a solid 3rd but let the record show that I had Brees as the clear no.1 before my research.

This is good research and something to consider... is anyone worried about any kind of reinjury risk with Rodgers this year?

Nah, stuff happens and you gotta deal with it. Anyone can get hurt, as long as they aren't proven to be injury prone or run a lot I don't worry. Praying to the football gods is all you can do.