A pre-combine look at the 2011 Wide Receiver class

[madd futher mucker 36]

WRs: - Much like the RB class, I see a group here that is both very very talented at the top and very deep.

 

Tier 1. These two deserve a tier of their own as both players should immediately make their presence felt at the pro level, and both have great potential to be uber-studs in the NFL.

 

1. A.J. Green – WR Georgia (6‘4” 210# 4.48) Very fluid, natural hands catching WR who will get any ball that is even close to his frame. In the mold of a more slender version of Calvin Johnson, he's probably one of the Top WR prospects over the last decade.

2. Julio Jones – WR Alabama (6‘4” 220# 4.50) He's just a very physical, very atletic and talented WR capable of highlight reel catches and is a tackle breaker after the catch. But he will lose focus and sometimes drops the very catchable ones.

 

Tier 2. Any or all of these guys could develop into stud WRs.

 

3. Vincent Brown - San Diego State (5’11” 184# 4.5) Brown consistently gets separation from defenders, and he goes after every catch with absolute focus and a ’my ball’ mentality. He understands the game, and his routes are the best of any prospect in this draft.

4. Leonard Hankerson - WR Miami (6' 1 1/2" 205 4.54) Runs better than average routes, and catches the ball away from his frame. He’s a consistent hand catcher who can take balls away from a defender and make tough catches in traffic.

5. Greg Little – WR North Carolina (6‘2’ 220# 4.55) His game is very similar to Tar Heel alum Hakeem Nicks. He has similar high upside as a strong, physical WR with great body control and good strong hands. A former RB, he lacks top-end speed but runs extremely well after the catch.

6. Jerrel Jernigan - WR Troy (5’-9” 189# 4.38) Jernigan’s game is a combination of Jacoby Ford and Mike Thomas - a combination of great explosiveness and game-breaking speed. He has great ball tracking skills and is fearless over the middle. Although he has elite speed, I believe he will probably translate as a very productive NFL slot receiver.

7. Titus Young - WR Boise State (5’ 11 ¼” 174# 4.43) If Jernigan a combination of Ford and Thomas, then Young’s explosiveness reminds people of both Eagles receivers, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. He is quicker than Maclin on his underneath routes and he has Jackson’s deep speed. But he’s one of the more controversial WRs in this draft because, like Julio Jones, he is prone to concentration lapses and dropped passes.

8. (Formerly 11th). Torrey Smith - WR Ohio St Maryland (6’1” 205# 4.40) Smith gets good separation in and out of his cuts because of his quick acceleration. He can get downfield in a hurry with exceptional speed. He has excellent body control, but he is not a natural hands catcher - he lets too many balls come into his body.

9. Randall Cobb - Athlete, Kentucky (5’11” 188# 4.43) Usually it is the kiss of death to call a guy ‘athlete’ rather than position player. Cobb may be the exception. While he has shown his playmaking ability as a WR, RB, AND QB, he is just a natural as a complete football player, and is very fluid as a WR with break-away abilities.

10. (Formerly 5th.) Jonathan Baldwin – WR Pittsburgh (6‘5” 225# 4.50) Long strider with build up speed and slow off the LOS, but he has great strength and leaping ability, and good soft hands.

 

Tier 3: I don't see an extremely high ceiling, but I believe that any or all of these guys can become impact WRs in the NFL.

 

11. Niles Paul WR Nebraska (6‘1“ 225 4.52) His game reminds people of Anquan Boldin’s (as well as Greg Little‘s game, just above). He is fairly good, but not great in his routes, but he has an outstanding physicality to his game. He has small but strong hands and he catches passes away from his body.

12. Austin Pettis – WR Boise St (6‘2“ 205# 4.56) A fluid possession receiver with terrific hands, Pettis is in the mold of TJ Houshmandzadeh. Since he lacks speed and quickness, he really needs to refine his total game, especially his route running.

13. Jeremy Kerley - (WR TCU 5’ 9 ¼” 188# 4.54) Jeremy is another nice slot guy who gets off the line quickly , runs great routes, shows reliable hands and terrific pass catching technique. His speed is only average, but he always gets separation and he can find soft spots in a zone

14. Greg Salas - WR Hawaii (6’1” 206# 4.60) “Salsa” is a very productive and has a smooth athletecism to his game that will serve him well in the pros. His game is more quickness than speed. He could be a very productive WR2 at the NFL level, because he consistently gets open, is a natural hands catcher, and can make yards with his feet after the catch.

 

Tier 4: These guys could become impact players, but on the field they'll have to answer a few more questions about their game. An outstanding combine could also move them up.

 

15. Tandon Doss - Indiana (6’ 3” 200# 4.53)

16. Ronald Johnson – WR USC (5‘11“ 186# 4.44)

17. Ryan Whalen - WR Stanford (6’ 204# 4.54)

18. Chris Owusu – WR Stanford - (6' 2" 202# 4.40)

19. Dwayne Harris - WR/KR East Carolina (5’11” 205# 4.52)

20. DeAndre Brown – WR Southern Miss (6‘6” 228# 4.50)

21. Tori Gurley - South Carolina (6’ 5” 230# 4.60)

22. Armon Binns - WR Cincinnati – (6” 2 ¼” 211# 4.58)

23. Edited in: Edmund Gates, WR Abliene Christian (6' 1/4" 189# 4.45) Sentimental favorite - I love Abilene Christian guys (see Johnny Knox and Bernard Scott).

24. Edited in: Here's our small school diamond-in-the-rough from NFLPA week (Tx v Nation): Ricardo Lockette, WR Fort Valley State, huh?? (6'2" 207# 4.35). The kid is raw as hell, but he has near world-class speed and looks like a baller, not a track star. He will be at the combine and expect one of the fastest times there. He's impressed scouts with his hustle and ability to make tough catches in a cold, extremely windy week of practice. A 2 or 3 year project, but one with longer term stud potential. Note: I lost much of my excitement for Lockette, who still will likely be the WR with the best size/speed ratio at the combine. He was less than impressive as the week went on. At least two other WRs had more impressive weeks:

25. Stephen Burton West Texas A&M 6’ 1 3/4” 219# 4.53

26. Denarius Moore Tennessee 6’ 0” 191# 4.48

 

 

Makes it 26 WRs now!

[jocstrap 8]

I can't wait to Youtube these guys - good list MFM.

 

What about Justin Blackmon from Okie State returning back to school? Check out what he did as a sophomore...

 

The 2010 season saw Blackmon named a unanimous All-American, the Biletnikoff Award winner, and he became the first receiver to be named Big 12 offensive player of the year. His 1,782 receiving yards represent a new NCAA record for a sophomore and is the sixth best season in NCAA history. Blackmon also set an NCAA record by recording 100 receiving yards and at least one touchdown reception in 12 straight games. The Ardmore Plainview product caught 20 touchdown passes and his 69-yard rushing touchdown against Baylor was the longest run from scrimmage by a Cowboy in 2010.

 

Nationally, Blackmon led the nation with an average of 148.5 receiving yards per game. He also led the country with 20 TD catches, was second with 9.3 catches per game and finished third nationally in scoring (11 points per game).

 

http://www.okstate.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/011211aaa.html

 

I sure hope he doesn't get injured...

[RLLD 3,455]

Thanks for putting this together, as a dynasty addict I pour over the rooks.....

 

Also,

11. Torrey Smith - WR Ohio St. (6’1” 205# 4.40) Smith gets good separation in and out of his cuts because of his quick acceleration. He can get downfield in a hurry with exceptional speed. He has excellent body control, but he is not a natural hands catcher - he lets too many balls come into his body.

 

He plays for Maryland...

[madd futher mucker 36]

LOL...Yea, my mind was still on the Senior Bowl a little.....Maybe I was thinking a litle too much about Dane Stanzenbacher? Maryland is not all that far from Columbus, Ohio, now is it?

 

Anyway...nice catch.

[De Novo 0]

Seriously doubt that Smith is the 11th best receiver in this draft. The guy is 6'1", physical, and runs a 4.4 fourty. I've only seen a few of these other receivers play, but unless this is the deepest WR class ever, Smith is no worse than #6.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Seriously doubt that Smith is the 11th best receiver in this draft. The guy is 6'1", physical, and runs a 4.4 fourty. I've only seen a few of these other receivers play, but unless this is the deepest WR class ever, Smith is no worse than #6.

 

He may seem too low, but please study just the others I have ranked above him, and then tell me who you would drop below him?

 

I saw him ranked as high as 4th (but ProDraftCentral has him at 9th). With his elite speed, he will likely be drafted in the 3rd round or even higher, and there is almost no question he will probably go ahead of some that I have ranked above him.

Still, I believe I have him ranked at least in the right neighborhood.

 

Yes, he has a great size/speed combination (and so did fellow alum DHB) and yes, he is one of the fastest receivers in the class (and aslo a top return man) and yes, his highlight film is impressive (but highlight film doesn't show dropped passes or matador blocking).

 

IMO, he just has a few too many 'flaws' to his game right now - he needs to improve his route running, he is a relatively downfield poor blocker, and most importantly, he body catches way too many balls.

 

This is a very deep class, but you are right, I doubt it is the deepest WR class ever. I believe my tier three description fits him perfectly.

[RLLD 3,455]

Seriously doubt that Smith is the 11th best receiver in this draft. The guy is 6'1", physical, and runs a 4.4 fourty. I've only seen a few of these other receivers play, but unless this is the deepest WR class ever, Smith is no worse than #6.

 

Well, perhaps....

 

The issues at hand are the same that we can assign/attribute to other beastly physical specimens coming out of Maryland....(Heyward-Bey and Vernon Davis).

 

The offense at Maryland is simplistic, they are run-first, and we cannot truly know what Smith is yet. I can assure you he was never coached on the finer points of routes and will need time and hard work to assimilate into an NFL offense.

 

There are unknowns about him that force him down the list, the guys above him have fewer concerns and questions. He could very well be a career KR, who does spot work in 4WR sets.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Well, perhaps....

 

The issues at hand are the same that we can assign/attribute to other beastly physical specimens coming out of Maryland....(Heyward-Bey and Vernon Davis).

 

The offense at Maryland is simplistic, they are run-first, and we cannot truly know what Smith is yet. I can assure you he was never coached on the finer points of routes and will need time and hard work to assimilate into an NFL offense.

 

There are unknowns about him that force him down the list, the guys above him have fewer concerns and questions. He could very well be a career KR, who does spot work in 4WR sets.

 

Exactly. Well stated. No question that the guy has all of the tools. And if you are drafting for dynasty purely for upside, he has more upside than some of the guys ranked above him. But when you consider the downside floor, IMO it is lower than any of the guys ranked above him for the exact reasons we have given.

[southcarolina 166]

I was kinda surprised to see Tori Gurley on the list...didnt think he was on anyone's radar outside of SC...I think he has taken some flack for being another fool who listened to some greedy "advisors" and jumped before he was ready(coughcoughKoSimpsoncoughcoughcough), but i think the real story is much more complicated...

 

I would also like to point out that as far as his stats go, he was playing behind one Alshon Jeffries both years at SC, and literally had 5 TD pass receptions called back for penalties on other players his freshman year. It was almost comical.

 

I doubt he has the speed to stay in the NFL, but i think he has some things you cant teach: Work ethic. Desire. Patience.

 

The long hard road of Tori Gurley

 

http://www.sidelinescouting.com/rankings/wr/tori-gurley.shtml

 

Positives: Elite size, one of the largest receivers in this class... Great hands, did not drop a single pass in 2010... Solid route runner... Plays in the middle of the field, is fine taking a hit... Extremely physical, likes to push people around... Has the size, frame, and physicality to be a great blocker... Good vertical receiver, times his jumps well... Strong body, will be a great red zone threat, shields defenders from the ball.

 

Negatives: Marginal speed, takes awhile for him to get to top speed and he does not have breakaway ability... Below-average after the catch, not elusive, gets run down from behind... Did not post great numbers in college, only had 905 career yards and six career touchdowns... Still a bit raw as a prospect... Seemed to fade towards the end of the year, only had five catches over his last four games... May be asked to gain weight and move to tight end... Will turn 24 during his rookie season... Would have liked to see him return to school to refine his game a bit, but his mother has financial problems that he wants to help with, combined with his age forced his hand.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I was kinda surprised to see Tori Gurley on the list...didnt think he was on anyone's radar outside of SC...I think he has taken some flack for being another fool who listened to some greedy "advisors" and jumped before he was ready(coughcoughKoSimpsoncoughcoughcough), but i think the real story is much more complicated...

 

I would also like to point out that as far as his stats go, he was playing behind one Alshon Jeffries both years at SC, and literally had 5 TD pass receptions called back for penalties on other players his freshman year. It was almost comical.

 

I doubt he has the speed to stay in the NFL, but i think he has some things you cant teach: Work ethic. Desire. Patience.

 

The long hard road of Tori Gurley

 

http://www.sidelinescouting.com/rankings/wr/tori-gurley.shtml

 

Thanks for the great story about him (the first link). I believe that he's a better prospect than Cal Poly's Ramses Barden was two years ago. Uses his big frame much better than Bardon did. A 6'5" atletic guy willing to work hard always has a chance to become a successful slot/possession guy in the NFL without being a 'burner'. So I'm glad you shared his story.

 

Seriously though, I believe that when all is said and done about 30 WRs will get drafted. I arbitrarily cut this list off at 22 players, omitting guys who are still pretty good prospects like OSU's Dane Stanzenbacher, and my sentimental favorite, Abilene Christian's Edmund Gates.

[Law 220]

I would put Baldwin, Little, AND Torrey Smith above Hankerson and all the guys below him.

 

And what, no Terrence Tolliver from LSU? The guy is projected to be a 3rd pick by most. No way 22 WRs go before he's picked.

6-4, 6-5 in the 205-215 range.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I've always put a lot of stock in how players perform against their peers throughout a whole week of practices at the all-star games. Just about every play these guys made (or didn't make) is documented somewhere. Hankerson proved his mettle at the Senior bowl versus a very strong field of senior wide receivers. It wasn't just the routes he ran and the catches I saw him make at the game, but his consistency every day in practice leading up to it.

 

On Tolliver - do you mean he should be a 3rd round pick or the 3rd wide receiver picked in the draft? Either way, I disagree - and I don't care where anybody has projected him to go in the draft. I'm evaluating these guys for purposes of dynasty league future productivity - NOT the order in which they might be drafted - these are two entirely different things. My ranking is based on the most current evidence that is available to me. I could care less about how someone evaluated him a year ago. How complete is his game right now?

 

Tolliver did absolutely NOTHING in any practice at the Shrine game week - and that was being compared with a very poor group of wide-outs represented there. On raw talent, he should have dominated that group - instead it was very disappointing for Tolliver and LSU fans. I've used these all-star games to weed out too-highly-touted players like Dezmon Briscoe last year and Derrick Williams the year before that. To me, Tolliver is this year's Briscoe or D Williams.

 

 

So I see him as an NFL bust, and will draft any of these 22 guys I've ranked here before I would draft him in dynasty.

Here's some quotes from observers:

 

One observer: "Tolliver made an outstanding one-handed catch over the middle in one-on-one coverage drills but failed to adjust to many low and high throws he'd be expected to bring in next season."

 

Cecil Lammey: "Toliver is exactly the type of receiver he was on film. He is very polished as a route runner when nobody is covering him. His hands are inconsistent but he can make some one-handed grabs here and there. When pressed he crumbles. He does not respond well to 'in your face' coverage and can get bumped off his route at the line of scrimmage quite easily. Just like at LSU he is simply inconsistent."

And I can tell you that Cecil is a LSU fan who has watched Tolliver a lot.

 

These are just two of several notes I collected two weeks ago, all essentially saying the same thing. I'd call that a huge red flag!

[southcarolina 166]

A 6'5" atletic guy willing to work hard always has a chance to become a successful slot/possession guy in the NFL without being a 'burner'.

 

If Seattle Mike Williams can do it, then anyone can

[De Novo 0]

He may seem too low, but please study just the others I have ranked above him, and then tell me who you would drop below him?

 

I saw him ranked as high as 4th (but ProDraftCentral has him at 9th). With his elite speed, he will likely be drafted in the 3rd round or even higher, and there is almost no question he will probably go ahead of some that I have ranked above him.

Still, I believe I have him ranked at least in the right neighborhood.

 

Yes, he has a great size/speed combination (and so did fellow alum DHB) and yes, he is one of the fastest receivers in the class (and aslo a top return man) and yes, his highlight film is impressive (but highlight film doesn't show dropped passes or matador blocking).

 

IMO, he just has a few too many 'flaws' to his game right now - he needs to improve his route running, he is a relatively downfield poor blocker, and most importantly, he body catches way too many balls.

 

This is a very deep class, but you are right, I doubt it is the deepest WR class ever. I believe my tier three description fits him perfectly.

I'm probably not going to study the others... but, I watch all the Maryland games and he's looked like the best receiver on the field in every one of those games. Any comparison to DHB is an insult to Smith. DHB showed a lot of flash, but not a lot of production. Smith showed both, even hobbled by an ankle sprain almost the entire season. I think he had like 70 catches for 1100 yards in an offense that hasn't seen that type of production in my lifetime. He did that with his playmaking but also using his body on shorter routes (which DHB couldn't or didn't even run). Smith can improve his route running, but he's new to the WR position. I hear the body-catching comment, but he caught an awful lot of balls with his hands, sees the ball well, and drops weren't really a problem for him. He's physical and a burner. I don't need to see the other receivers to know that Green and Jones are studs, and that Smith is just a tier below. I think he has Roddy White type ability and he's better than Roddy White was at the same stage of his career. There's no way I let him get past the 2nd if I'm an NFL GM.

[c9h13no3 0]

Aren't you the same guy who said Dexter McCluster was going to be a huge impact player in 2010?

 

[/cheap shot]

[madd futher mucker 36]

Aren't you the same guy who said Dexter McCluster was going to be a huge impact player in 2010?

 

[/cheap shot]

 

No, you're right...not really a cheap shot, at all. I WAS too high on McCluster last year for re-draft - not that i've given up on him for dynasty. But see my comments regarding Quizz Rodgers in my take on RBs for this year. Let's just say that I'm now a little more wary of at least the shorter-term fantasy potential of that particular body type/skill set.

 

But there are a lot of different player skillsets to sift through in making some reasonably intelligent order out of this many players. And almost everyone understands that trying to project how that skillset will translate to the next level involves much more that an evaluation of present raw talent. At this level, they all have at least some degree of remarkable talent - but how do you really measure work ethic, coachability and heart? One measure is the growth in a player's game from the start of their college career and the end of it. Another measure is how they perform against top flight collegiate talent. That's why all-star weeks are so important, and why underclassmen are just that much harder to get a handle on. That is why you give a little more weight to players who have shown that they can overcome real life adversity (like Tori Gurley and Mardy Gilyard last year - but know that in the end, the NFL projectable talent still has to be there) than players who were highly touted out of high school but still are making the same mistakes as a college senior that they made as freshmen.

 

I guess that the real answer is...you read and study as much as you can and then you take your best shot at it. The only guys who don't make mistakes at this are the ones who have no opinions.

 

I really appreciate (and hopefully learn a bit from) ALL of the feedback both positive and otherwise on these evaluations. That's why i don't just keep them to myself.

[Kopy 491]

MFM, out of your top 14 guys (Those are your top 3 tiers). How much stock do you put into who could draft them?

 

Do you feel any of those players would need an elite QB, or a great team in order to perform? Or would those 14 kids be able to still perform an a crappy team?

 

I guess somehow I'm trying to ask, who could get lost in the shuffle?

 

How do you think the first 2 rounds of a 3 round rookie draft would shape out?

I'm thinking with no sure fire QB, or TE. The first 24 picks should be all RB and wr's.

 

Your top 14 too. Who would you compare each guy too in the NFL today?

 

If I'm asking too many questions. I won't get offended if you tell me to shut up. But with Waldman gone. You pretty much all I got here for Dynasty leagues.

[madd futher mucker 36]

First of all, thanks, but there's no way my rankings can begin to compare with the great work that Matt Waldman does, but I accept the compliment anyway.

 

And I apologize in advance for the wordiness of this answer, but I think it makes sense to try to look at a rookie class in a four-stage evaluation process and i don't try to get too far ahead of myself in it:

 

A ) Post-all-star games but pre-combine: - The stage we are in right now. This week is the week of the last all-star game, the NFLPA game (formerly TX v Nation). It generally has the least amount of talent (but occasionally one can uncover a small school diamond-in-the-rough). This year I jumped the gun on my 'rookie lists' because I don't believe that the final all-star game will impact the rankings too much if at all, but I will post a follow-up where it might add a player to these lists. As I have often said - I don't worry too much about whether I get a player's absolute ranking accurate, I'm more concerned with trying to have the player slotted in the right talent tier. For instance in the debate about Torrey Smith, there is not all that much difference in slotting him 4th or 11th at this stage of the game. The fact that he dropped out of the second tier and into the top of the third really only means I have a few more reservations about him than I do a Titus Young for instance. But I do try to make the Pre-combine lists as pure an estimate of translatable talent into the NFL as possible.

 

B ) Post-combine but pre-NFL draft - Again we have almost no idea of where these prospects are going to land yet, however the information we can collect immediately before, during, and after the Combine process can have a great bearing on the probable success of these guys, and will allow us to re-shuffle this deck a little. Regarding the combine itself, I'm not a great believer in the value of 40 times, but how players perform in position drills at the combine (as well as other info that comes out of the process) DOES tend to re-arrange the board somewhat. Again considering Torrey Smith, if he stands out in the combine position drills and has positives in all other aspects of the combine, he could move up with my tier two guys. (I will place far more emphasis on these other things than on what his 40 time turns out to be - we already know he's fast).

 

C) The NFL draft and post-draft assessment This is the step where factors that have very little to do with a player's raw 'translatables' begin to have a great deal to do with the total evaluation process. This is where it began to became evident that the rookie draft order of last year's RB class would be Ryan Mathews, then Jahvid Best, and then CJ Spiller - based mainly on the situation that they landed in. To directly answer your question, there is no way right now (even with AJ Green or Julio Jones, who will both likely be day one starters just about anywhere) thatquestions of: which team will draft them, an assessment of their opportunity to get on the field, and who their QB might be can even be remotely guessed at or accounted for at the assessment stage we are at right now. So we have no choice but to just wait and see the whole process unfold.

 

D) The post-draft into the pre-season stage is the final stage of the assessment process. NFL teams have sorted out a lot of roster decisions and we've gotten a glimpse of how these guys performed in OTAs, etc. At this point - hopefully just before our rookie drafts - we re-do the order of our rankings again to reflect how the 'raw translatibles' mesh with the situation in which they find themselves, and really, we already have some clues as to how they have begun to adapt to their situation. We can also begin to estimate the value of the rookies versus veterans for purposes of developing a comprehensive ranking of player valuation.

 

So there is a big problem in jumping too far ahead - far too many unknowns - and it is a big crap-shoot to be in leagues that have their rookie dynasty drafts before the final evaluation stage I described.

 

Then what is the value of doing the rookie assessment in four clearly defined stages? Why even care at all about a 'pecking order' this early? Other than just being fun to do and to discuss, I believe that by isolating the variables into these four stages it makes for a far more logical dynasty decision-making process and a better over-all result.

[De Novo 0]

MFM, out of your top 14 guys (Those are your top 3 tiers). How much stock do you put into who could draft them?

 

Do you feel any of those players would need an elite QB, or a great team in order to perform? Or would those 14 kids be able to still perform an a crappy team?

 

I guess somehow I'm trying to ask, who could get lost in the shuffle?

I think the guys who are most likely to get lost in the shuffle are smaller receivers, guys who project as slot receivers, and guys who aren't that fast but make their living running precise routes and have great hands. We all saw what even an elite receiver does with a bad QB. The larger, faster, and more physical receivers are less likely to get lost.

[madd futher mucker 36]

MFM, out of your top 14 guys (Those are your top 3 tiers). How much stock do you put into who could draft them?

 

Do you feel any of those players would need an elite QB, or a great team in order to perform? Or would those 14 kids be able to still perform an a crappy team?

 

I guess somehow I'm trying to ask, who could get lost in the shuffle?

 

How do you think the first 2 rounds of a 3 round rookie draft would shape out?

I'm thinking with no sure fire QB, or TE. The first 24 picks should be all RB and wr's.

 

 

To more directly respond to the question, as well as to De Novo's answer, I don't really believe that it is as simplistic as boiling it down to the receiver type, or size/speed.

 

I believe who gets lost in the shuffle is a function of two over-riding factors:

1. Three primary NFL-translatable skills: a )Ability to consistently get open (separation from the defenders), b ) ability to be where they should be and when they are supposed to be there, and c) the ability to consistently catch the football. In his RSP, Waldman has identified about a dozen or more sub-skills involved in performing those three tasks - and, while bigger and faster sure doesn't hurt, most of these sub-skills do not require extra-ordinary raw speed and/or size. My tiering attempts to figure out who is likely to have or develop the best NFL-translatable skills, so lacking any information on situation or opportunity, if i do a reasonable job in ranking these guys according to NFL-translatable talent potential (you be the judge of that) then it will be a good-but-not-perfect indicator of future NFL sucess. So by definition, without regard to (2) below, those WRs further down my list have a higher likelihood at this point to 'get lost in the shuffle.'

 

2. Opportunity: Assuming a high NFL level skill-set for getting open, being where the quarterback expects, and catching the football, then who gets "lost in the shuffle" becomes almost purely a function of opportunity. Aaron Rodgers recently said "I always believed I could play at this [high] level, but what I wasn't as sure of was that I would ever have the opportunity find out."

Many players just have to wait 'their turn' (and continue to polish their skills), because until they get the opportunity to showcase their skills, they will get lost in the shuffle. In that respect, players can often create the opportunity by showing their coach that they are willing to do whatever it takes....consistent downfield blocking, special teams play, extra film study, etc.

 

Ironically, if they rely too much on size and speed as a substitute for the base skills, and then they go to a place like Oakland where size and speed are overvalued, they may get their opportunity BEFORE they've developed the necessary skill-set to perform all of the three things mentioned above at a high enough level to succeed in the NFL.

 

 

In answer to the second part of your question, as a general rule you are exactly right - I believe strongly in loading up on rookie WRs and RBs and letting others draft the QBs and TEs because it is much harder to predict who will become a franchise QBs and the learning curve is usually longer, so it is much easier to trade for rather than try to hit on these guys. My theory is also that TEs success is almost as much of a function of system as it is of receiving talent, and there is too much present depth at the TE position to spend a high rookie draft pick on the position.

[The Football Guru 212]

Aren't you the same guy who said Dexter McCluster was going to be a huge impact player in 2010?

 

[/cheap shot]

I know no one is trying to attack anyone here, but I would pause in saying McCluster didn't have an impact...when he was healthy. In Weeks 3-7 (before he suffered his late October high ankle sprain), the rookie was averaging 8.8 yards/offensive touch (22 touches in four games). Throw in 222 more return yards in those games and he was doing just fine for a rookie "gadget" player. Seriously, with Charles and Jones going like they were early on and Charles and Bowe doing what they were later on, why was KC going to carve out a role for an injured McCluster?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Here's our small school diamond-in-the-rough from NFLPA week (Tx v Nation): Ricardo Lockette, WR Fort Valley State, huh?? (6'2" 207# 4.35). The kid is raw as hell, but he has near world-class speed and looks like a baller, not a track star. He will be at the combine and expect one of the fastest times there. He's impressed with his hustle and ability to make tough catches in a cold, extremely windy week of practice. Perhaps a 2 or 3 year project, but one with longer term stud potential.

(See my note on Lockette as well as Stephen Burton of West Texas A&M.

 

BTW, the NFL has released the list of Combine invitees:

 

http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2011/2/2/1969882/nfl-draft-2011-nfl-scouting-combine-player-list-released

[longlurker 0]

Depending on who drafts them, how they do in training camp, and injuries, I'm targeting Brown and Salas in later rounds for the 2011 draft. I believe, that they have some incredible upside depending on the above factors.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Some slight pre-draft modification in my rankings pre-combine:

I finally convinced myself after further study (thanks to De Novo) that Torrey Smith belongs in the second tier. Currently I have moved him into #8.

 

At the same time I've gotten very bearish on Jonathan Baldwin. I see a guy who'll make some highlight-reel catches but I believe his slow release and mediocre route running (which, due to his limited quickness will probably not improve much) will limit him greatly in the pros. He just is not quick - his speed is 'build up' speed only. And while he uses his height to great advantage, he truly does not play as physical as his size, and he doesn't gain many yards after the catch. So I see shades of QB-turned-WR Matt Jones here. IMO, despite his 'measurables' he has a fairly high bust factor and I've dropped him down to the #10 spot, but still in the second tier.

 

Regarding tier 2, I believe my caption: "Any or all of these guys could develop into stud WRs" accurately describes these guys, and that there is not a huge potential talent separation between any of the players in this tier.

 

I look forward to the combine to see these guys work out.

[RLLD 3,455]

I'm probably not going to study the others... but, I watch all the Maryland games and he's looked like the best receiver on the field in every one of those games. Any comparison to DHB is an insult to Smith. DHB showed a lot of flash, but not a lot of production. Smith showed both, even hobbled by an ankle sprain almost the entire season. I think he had like 70 catches for 1100 yards in an offense that hasn't seen that type of production in my lifetime. He did that with his playmaking but also using his body on shorter routes (which DHB couldn't or didn't even run). Smith can improve his route running, but he's new to the WR position. I hear the body-catching comment, but he caught an awful lot of balls with his hands, sees the ball well, and drops weren't really a problem for him. He's physical and a burner. I don't need to see the other receivers to know that Green and Jones are studs, and that Smith is just a tier below. I think he has Roddy White type ability and he's better than Roddy White was at the same stage of his career. There's no way I let him get past the 2nd if I'm an NFL GM.

 

Agree.....

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Why no mention of Cecil Shorts III in this thread?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Why no mention of Cecil Shorts III in this thread?

 

There were some wide receivers on scouts lists who were watched very closely at the Shrine Game for 'flashes' of talent against all-star level competition, and got failing grades: LSU's Terrence Tolliver(who I discussed above), Oregon's Jeff Maehl, and Cecil Shorts from Mount Union.

 

Shorts was hyped mainly because he was a productive WR who has sprinter speed and comes from the same school that produced Pierre Garcon. Shorts is NOT Pierre Garcon. Not even close. He was very productive at the NCAA Div III level, but he rounds out his routes and lacks any special explosion off the LOS or acceleration out of his breaks. With him, it is BOTH a question of level of competition and, more importantly, a question of talent. Sorry, but like the two others I just mentioned, I just can't see him making an impact on an NFL roster, even in the longer term.

 

He's not on my prospect list for dynasty WRs for good reason. If he can't get good consistent separation at the Shrine game practices, he won't get it in the pros.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I expect that after the Combine, Torrey Smith will move even further up my list - and again, not based on his 40 time (which WILL be fast). I listened to a fairly long interview he did with Mike Florio of PFT and came away extremely impressed. This kid has his head screwed on straight and will make himself into a great pro WR. It impressed me that he acknowleges and already is working to break his bad habit of arm-catching the football, which I see as the biggest flaw to his game.

 

More importantly, he has a confident but sincere humility about himself that projects throughout the interview. I believe that team officials will come away equally impressed with his Combine interviews. He also has great modesty about his very compelling personal story facing and overcoming significant adversity in his younger life. IMO, this is a kid that will do whatever it takes to improve his game.

 

I didn't link to the interview, but perhaps you can find it on ProFootballTalk.com or Google it. Well worth a listen.

 

BTW, I LOVE the whole tier 2 group, and could make a case for every one of them. At the end of the day, IMO this will prove to be a very nice WR class even without top-tier guys like Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd or Alshon Jeffrey in this draft class.

[Boston Three Party 6]

Julio Jones looks insane.

 

I'm PRAYING ingram falls to the patriots and or we take him at 17.

[madd futher mucker 36]

WRs: - Much like the RB class, I see a group here that is both very very talented at the top and very deep.

 

Tier 1. These two deserve a tier of their own as both players should immediately make their presence felt at the pro level, and both have great potential to be uber-studs in the NFL.

 

1. A.J. Green – WR Georgia (6‘4” 210# 4.48 4.50) Very fluid, natural hands catching WR who will get any ball that is even close to his frame. In the mold of a more slender version of Calvin Johnson, he's probably one of the Top WR prospects over the last decade. Combine: Was solid, not spectacular.

 

2. Julio Jones – WR Alabama (6‘4 3” 220# 4.50 4.39) He's just a very physical, very atletic and talented WR capable of highlight reel catches and is a tackle breaker after the catch. But he will lose focus and sometimes drops the very catchable ones. A Combine standout - 11'3" Vert, 4.39 40, 6.66 3-Cone; chiseled body- Only negative was that he let quite a few balls come into his body in drills.

 

Tier 2. Any or all of these guys could develop into stud WRs.

 

3. Vincent Brown - San Diego State (5’11” 184# 4.5 4.71) Brown consistently gets separation from defenders, and he goes after every catch with absolute focus and a ’my ball’ mentality. He understands the game, and his routes are the best of any prospect in this draft. Combine: His disappointing 40 (4.71) will probably drop him a little - making him an even better value IMO. The 40 time was somwhat offset by a very good 6.64 3-Cone. Ran great routes in drills.

 

4. Leonard Hankerson - WR Miami (6' 1 1/2" 205 4.54 4.43) Runs better than average routes, and catches the ball away from his frame. He’s a consistent hand catcher who can take balls away from a defender and make tough catches in traffic. A poor Combine. In drills, he rounded his routes and dropped some balls.

 

5. Greg Little – WR North Carolina (6‘2’ 220 231# 4.55 4.39) His game is very similar to Tar Heel alum Hakeem Nicks. He has similar high upside as a strong, physical WR with great body control and good strong hands. A former RB, he lacks top-end speed but runs extremely well after the catch. Combine: he looked like a beast - At 231#, he ran a 4.53 and had a 40 1/2" Vert. I understand that he had terrible interviews and turned off many teams.

 

6. Jerrel Jernigan - WR Troy (5’-9” 189# 4.38 4.46) Jernigan’s game is a combination of Jacoby Ford and Mike Thomas - a combination of great explosiveness and game-breaking speed. He has great ball tracking skills and is fearless over the middle. Although he has elite speed, I believe he will probably translate as a very productive NFL slot receiver. Combine: Did not impress in measurables, but looked very good in position drills.

 

7. Titus Young - WR Boise State (5’ 11 ¼” 174# 4.43 4.53) If Jernigan a combination of Ford and Thomas, then Young’s explosiveness reminds people of both Eagles receivers, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. He is quicker than Maclin on his underneath routes and he has Jackson’s deep speed. But he’s one of the more controversial WRs in this draft because, like Julio Jones, he is prone to concentration lapses and dropped passes. Poor Combine. The gauntlet drill was VERY slow...It looks like he doesn't trust his hands.

 

8. Torrey Smith - WR Ohio St Maryland (6’1” 205# 4.40 4.43) Smith gets good separation in and out of his cuts because of his quick acceleration. He can get downfield in a hurry with exceptional speed. He has excellent body control, but he is not a natural hands catcher - he lets too many balls come into his body. Combine: Exceptional 41" Vert speaks to his athletic ability. He wasn't perfect, but looked better than expected in drills.

 

9. Randall Cobb - Athlete, Kentucky (5’11” 188# 4.43) Usually it is the kiss of death to call a guy ‘athlete’ rather than position player. Cobb may be the exception. While he has shown his playmaking ability as a WR, RB, AND QB, he is just a natural as a complete football player, and is very fluid as a WR with break-away abilities. Combine: He looked sure-handed and explosive in drills.

 

10. Jonathan Baldwin[/b] – WR Pittsburgh (6‘5” 225# 4.50) Long strider with build up speed and slow off the LOS, but he has great strength and leaping ability, and good soft hands. He hurt himself the worst of any WR at the combine. His top Vert of 42" was offset by a poor 20 and 3-cone. Worse, he looked stiff and un-natural as a receiver and had plenty of drops. Looks like my dropping him to the 10 spot was justified.

 

Tier 3: I don't see an extremely high ceiling, but I believe that any or all of these guys can become impact WRs in the NFL.

 

11. Niles Paul WR Nebraska (6'1" 225# 4.51) His game reminds people of Anquan Boldin’s (as well as Greg Little‘s game, just above). He is fairly good, but not great in his routes, but he has an outstanding physicality to his game. He has small but strong hands and he catches passes away from his body. Combine: Solid day. Did position drills well with good cuts and caught every pass within reach.

 

12. Austin Pettis – WR Boise St (6‘2“ 205# 4.56 4.61) A fluid possession receiver with terrific hands, Pettis is in the mold of TJ Houshmandzadeh. Since he lacks speed and quickness, he really needs to refine his total game, especially his route running. Combine: Decent, ran a topnotch 20 shuttle and 3 cone. Had a few drops in the drills.

 

13. Jeremy Kerley - (WR TCU 5’ 9 ¼” 188# 4.54 4.62) Jeremy is another nice slot guy who gets off the line quickly , runs great routes, shows reliable hands and terrific pass catching technique. His speed is only average, but he always gets separation and he can find soft spots in a zone. Combine: Ran slower than expected.

 

14. Greg Salas - WR Hawaii (6’1” 206# 4.60) “Salsa” is a very productive and has a smooth athletecism to his game that will serve him well in the pros. His game is more quickness than speed. He could be a very productive WR2 at the NFL level, because he consistently gets open, is a natural hands catcher, and can make yards with his feet after the catch. Combine: Solid.

 

Tier 4: These guys could become impact players, but on the field they'll have to answer a few more questions about their game. An outstanding combine could also move them up.

 

15. Tandon Doss - Indiana (6’ 3” 200# 4.53) Combine - did not participate. apparently not fully recovered from surgery to repair two torn groin muscles.

16. Ronald Johnson – WR USC (5‘11“ 186# 4.44) Combine: No notes.

17. Ryan Whalen - WR Stanford (6’ 204# 4.54) Combine: No notes.

18. Chris Owusu – WR Stanford - (6' 2" 202# 4.40) Combine: Not invited.

19. Dwayne Harris - WR/KR East Carolina (5’11” 205# 4.52) Combine: No notes.

20. DeAndre Brown – WR Southern Miss (6‘6” 228# 4.50 4.59) Combine: Lacks explosion - 29' Vertical.

21. Tori Gurley - South Carolina (6’ 5” 230# 4.60 6'4" 216# 4.56) Combine: Not quite as big as advertized.

22. Armon Binns - WR Cincinnati – (6” 2 ¼” 211# 4.58) Combine: No notes.

23. Edmund Gates, WR Abliene Christian (6' 1/4" 189# 4.45) Sentimental favorite - I love Abilene Christian guys (see Johnny Knox and Bernard Scott). Combine: He helped himself a lot. Tied for top 40 (4.37) among WRs, and almost a 11' Vert. He showed excellent ball tracking skills, ran good routes and showed sure hands in drills. He looked a lot like a future Johnny Knox.

24. Ricardo Lockette, WR Fort Valley State (6'2" 207# 4.35). The kid is raw as hell, but he has near world-class speed and looks like a baller. He will be at the combine and expect one of the fastest times there. He's impressed scouts with his hustle and ability to make tough catches in a cold, extremely windy week of practice. A 2 or 3 year project, but one with longer term stud potential. Note: I lost much of my excitement for Lockette, who still will likely be the WR with the best size/speed ratio at the combine. He was less than impressive as the week went on. Combine: As expected he tied for top 40 at 4.37, but otherwise did not distinguish himself. Looks more like just a track guy.

25. Stephen Burton West Texas A&M 6’ 1 3/4” 219# 4.53 Combine: No notes.

26. Denarius Moore Tennessee 6’ 0” 191# 4.48 Combine: No notes.

 

 

Bolded are my early notes on the Combine. Where i have indicated "No notes", it means that the player did pretty much as expected and didn't stand out to me either plus or minus. Questions and/or comments appreciated!

[De Novo 0]

Bolded are my early notes on the Combine. Where i have indicated "No notes", it means that the player did pretty much as expected and didn't stand out to me either plus or minus. Questions and/or comments appreciated!

Good notes. Saw a decent bit on the NFL network and can't disagree with any of this.

 

AJ Green and Julio Jones did almost exactly as I expected, although I thought Green would run a little faster 40 and Jones would run a little slower. Jones looks to be over ankle injuries that limited him late in the season.

 

I think the combine and what I've heard about interviews puts Torrey Smith on a 2nd tier by himself. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him sneak into the top 20 especially with what might happen to Julio Jones's stock. There's a video on the web of Torrey Smith sticking his arm into the rim on a dunk and hanging on by his elbow. There are NBA player who can't do that.

 

Titus Young can thank the underdog anti-BCS mentality for all the publicity, and DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Mike Thomas for making smaller receivers en vogue. I think he'll be taken 2 rounds sooner than he would have 3 years ago.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Vincent Brown has HUGE hands for his height. You know what they say about those guys.

[madd futher mucker 36]

After reviewing my notes, I am pretty comfortable with the idea that the top two tiers are about right (although my exact order of tier 2 is up in the air). Based on a combination of my overall notes review and the combine results, I think that Niles Paul, Edmund Gates (who moved up) and Greg Salas have clearly claimed the tier 3 to themselves (or maybe along with Baldwin dropping from tier 1), dropping Kerley and Pettis to to the top of tier 4.

 

So these 13 WRs, together with the 11 RBs I identified in my RB thread, constitute the top 24 players that I would likely target in my 1st two or 3 rounds of a rookie draft. I'm not too concerned about the exact order of the tier two guys as the over-riding criteria of that exact order will be determined by the situation that they are drafted into. (But for those who want to a more exact post-combine ranking, I will say that in addition to Salas and Gates moving up, IMO at this point Smith has moved ahead of both Jernigan and Young - although I'm still concerned with Smith's 8 5/8" hands being the smallest of any WR at the combine, which might account for his body-catching habit).

[Mike FF Today 608]

In addition to mfm's thoughts, Tony gives some analysis of the QBs, RBs, and WRs, in his latest blog post - NFL Combine Report.

[What is the deal? 1]

with a 4.7 40 yd dash, is Vincent Brown even worth a pick in the top 3 rounds of a rookie draft?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Absolutely! Vincent Brown got great separation against quality CBs at the Senior Bowl - why? Brown is quick. Brown sells and runs great routes. Brown catches everything. The best thing about Vincent Brown is that he has absolute focus on every play. I have very litte doubt about Vincent Brown being a starter in the NFL. His poor 40 time doesn't bother all that much. If memory serves, guys like Anquan Boldin and Jerry Rice ran 4.7s at the combine. I'm still a big Vincent Brown fan.

 

I'll be updating my WR rankings after I get my income taxes done......Hopefully well before April 15th!