I need help, keepers due tomorrow (Trade Adams for Watkins?)

[norcaljeff 1]

Way too early but it's time to announce keepers in my 12 team league. We each keep 5 and it's an old league so low scoring (passing 50yds=1pt 4pts per passing td; 25 yds rush/rec = 1 pt and 6 pts a td) with no bonuses. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 K. I pick #1 this year and am leaning towards Fournette. I have R. Wilson, P. Perkins, R. Kelly, L. Murray, J. Hill, D. Baldwin, D. Adams, D. Parker, J. Doctson, R. Cobb, and J. Reed. Who are my best 5? I'm leaning towards these guys:

 

R. Wilson (only 5 other QB being kept so everyone but Brees, Luck, Rodgers, Brady and Carr are in the draft)

 

P. Perkins (concerned b/c he's unproven, not on the field all 3 downs and might not get goal line work)

 

D. Baldwin

D. Adams

 

J. Reed (injury history/big toe/concussions & only Gronk, Graham and Kelce are being kept already so TE's available)

 

 

I have to opportunity to acquire M. Bryant and/or K. Benjamin by moving back in 2nd and 3rd round (#2.01 to #2.05 and 3.01 to 3.05) Would you trade for one or both? Is dropping Perkins to trade for one of them worth it? If I get both I'd have to drop Reed or Wilson as well. He's also interested in Adams (owns A. Rodgers) for Watkins, is that trade still even close with today's trade? Should I just sit tight and keep my pics? Is Reed worth the headaches ? Any help would be appreciated, thanks

 

[Ray_T 591]

Moving back 5 slots in each of round 2 & 3 seems like a reasonable price to pay for Bryant and Benjamin.

 

Adams for Watkins.- it's a very risky deal due to Watkins injury history. He's clearly the better and more talented player, but you may not see that in the stats for another year or two. so if you want immediate results, I dont like the deal. and if Watkins gets hurt again, we are looking at the possibility that he may never achieve his potential.

 

but the real problem here is that you cannot make all of these deals.

 

You can make one. Maybe 2.

 

now your team is not highly competitive. There is potential there, but you dont have the talent you need to win this year.

 

At RB I would think you will keep Perkins and you will keep Wilson at QB (or possibly dump him and grab one in the draft)

 

I dont see you keeping Fat Rob or Latavius Murray or Jeremy Hill. (if you want to, you should rethink that)

 

so you have 3 more keepers.

 

At WR (assuming no trade made at all) I'd keep Parker, Doctson, and Devante Adams.

 

The reason I'd keep Doctson, is that he is young, and if you wanna rebuild, you want to do so with young up and coming studs, and I do think Doctson will be one eventually.

 

now if you dont want to wait, he is the logical one to dump because he may not break out for a full year. it may happen sooner, but I'd say the odds are against it. (maybe a 25% chance of a breakout year this season)

 

if you decide to dump Doctson, I'd take the Bryant deal. I also like the benjamin deal, but we dont know where Newtons health is at, so that is risky as well.

 

if you want to make both deals, you need to dump Russel Wilson.

 

depending on what QB's you expect to be available, it may not be a terrible move, but that's more of a know your league thing. You may be able to get him (or someone comparable in terms of fanatsy points) in the second round.

 

I am going on the assumption you are getting a RB in round 1. If you aren't you should be. If Perkins is your Best RB that's not a good situation to be in. He will be a solid #2 RB, but I wouldnt want him as my #1. and you should be able to get your future #1 RB in this draft.

[Ray_T 591]

you know, I was just thinking, This is a great draft for rookie RB's and you need RB's in a bad way.

 

is there any chance you could trade away Devante Adams and a second round pick to get into the first round of the draft?

 

you could grab both Fournette and Mixon and your RB's would be set for a long time if they both pan out.

 

You could then trade down in round 3 to get Benjamin to replace Devante Adams.

 

That would also solve your keeper problem as well.

[norcaljeff 1]

Thanks I agree with you on most everything. My RB's suck, I'll draft Fournette #1 and he'll be my best back. I feel like Perkins has a chance to be there in round 2 if I wanted to draft him back but it will be close. Baldwin and Adams are 2 of my keepers for sure at WR. I don't think I can get another 1st rounder to select any of the other rookies. Other RB available are: mccaffery, mixon, cook, lynch, gillislee, abdullah, perine, hunt, west...At WR the following will be there: Bryant, Marshall, Benjamin, Landry, Parker (if i drop him), fitz, crowder, snead....I'm not in love with Wilson even though he's ranked typically in the top 5 or 6 QBs. He's way too inconsistent and doesn't run like he used too. Jordan Reed is a luxury and hurt often but a difference make when healthy. Thinking I should cut ties and be done with his toe acting up and a concession. However if I make a trade I could end up with:

 

Fournette (#1 pick) Wilson

Perkins Fournette (#1 pick)

Fournette (#1 pick)

 

Baldwin Baldwin Baldwin

Adams Adams Adams

Benjamin Benjamin Benjamin or Bryant or Parker?

Bryant Bryant

Reed

Reed (or wilson)

 

 

 

 

[Ray_T 591]

Thanks I agree with you on most everything. My RB's suck, I'll draft Fournette #1 and he'll be my best back. I feel like Perkins has a chance to be there in round 2 if I wanted to draft him back but it will be close. Baldwin and Adams are 2 of my keepers for sure at WR. I don't think I can get another 1st rounder to select any of the other rookies. Other RB available are: mccaffery, mixon, cook, lynch, gillislee, abdullah, perine, hunt, west...At WR the following will be there: Bryant, Marshall, Benjamin, Landry, Parker (if i drop him), fitz, crowder, snead....I'm not in love with Wilson even though he's ranked typically in the top 5 or 6 QBs. He's way too inconsistent and doesn't run like he used too. Jordan Reed is a luxury and hurt often but a difference make when healthy. Thinking I should cut ties and be done with his toe acting up and a concession. However if I make a trade I could end up with:

 

Fournette (#1 pick) Wilson

Perkins Fournette (#1 pick)

Fournette (#1 pick)

 

Baldwin Baldwin Baldwin

Adams Adams Adams

Benjamin Benjamin Benjamin or Bryant or Parker?

Bryant Bryant

Reed

Reed (or wilson)

 

 

 

 

the general rule is that RB's are more likely to have an immediate impact than WR's.

 

That's not always true, but it seems to be the trend.

 

and there are 5-6 RB's that I can see being long time starters in this league.

 

My thought was if you kept perkins, traded into round 1 and drafted two RB's, yoiu will have 3 RB's.

 

one of them will probably flame out (as is the way with rookies and young, unproven players like Perkins) and the other two will be the cornerstone of your franchise for the better part of the next decade.

 

but you can probably get one of those backs in round 2. I just dont think Mixon will drop that far. but it is possbile because some will not draft him due to the off field issues.

 

That being said, I wouldnt trade down in round 2. I'd trade up if I could, but not down.

[redsrback 30]

Reed if healthy can lead all TEs in points and easy to draft a te with upside.

 

Cant be hard to drop Wilson and get an upgrade.

 

Perkins- are you gonna drop a number 1 RB to take a chance on another ?

 

Your choices seem obvious, keep the bird in the hand and don't drop to reach for another

[Ray_T 591]

Reed if healthy can lead all TEs in points and easy to draft a te with upside.

 

Cant be hard to drop Wilson and get an upgrade.

 

Perkins- are you gonna drop a number 1 RB to take a chance on another ?

 

Your choices seem obvious, keep the bird in the hand and don't drop to reach for another

I wasnt suggesting dropping perkins and I dont think norcal was suggesting he wanted to.

 

I'm suggesting that with him and spending the first 2 draft picks on RB's he would have the RB situation sorted for the future even if one of the three RB's turns out to be a bust.

 

make no mistake here, this is likely a 2 year rebuild unless all the moves made this season comes up roses.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Adams is a now trusted red zone target coming off a double digit td year with an all time great qb. Watkins is an always hurt hype bum playing for the worst team in the league. Def don't do that.

[ralphster 274]

DA had not shown much of anything through 2 years, then blew up last year when jordy and cobb were hurt.

 

Both are healthy now and GB added the black unicorn. DA is bound for regression and I take watkins over DA easily.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

DA had not shown much of anything through 2 years, then blew up last year when jordy and cobb were hurt.

 

Both are healthy now and GB added the black unicorn. DA is bound for regression and I take watkins over DA easily.

Easily? Both WRs are trending in complete opposite directions but you prefer the one that's freefalling lol I didn't watch too many Bills games last year but his numbers for 8 games were not good. I'm assuming he played through injury? Regardless i think his stock falls even more going to the rams. I'm not a believer of Goff. Also i think DA has leapfrogged Cobb in terms of Rodgers favoritsm. I could be wrong but if Adams is starting opposite jordy and cobb is in the slot, DA should be in store for another excellent season.

[ralphster 274]

Easily? Both WRs are trending in complete opposite directions but you prefer the one that's freefalling lol I didn't watch too many Bills games last year but his numbers for 8 games were not good. I'm assuming he played through injury? Regardless i think his stock falls even more going to the rams. I'm not a believer of Goff. Also i think DA has leapfrogged Cobb in terms of Rodgers favoritsm. I could be wrong but if Adams is starting opposite jordy and cobb is in the slot, DA should be in store for another excellent season.

yes easily. watkins is more talented. DA had 12 tds last year, making him a prime target for regression.

 

DA went for 75/995/12 last year. in 2015 he went for 50/483/1. he's averaged 11.8 y/r for his 3 year career.

 

after DAs break out last year (and watkins injury) they have similar career numbers, but watkins has averaged 16.1 y/r, has 533 more career yards, is a year younger than DA and did all that with a QB cast considerably less talented than ARog.

 

yes, easily.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I like DA but he did have like 8 games of under 50 yards receiving.

 

I bought some dynasty copies as a WR 3 this year but I think he could see some regression.

[Matt Mueller 146]

One note on Sammy that I heard on a podcast.

 

If we look at Britts overall success last year his yards per reception were like 3 yards higher earlier in the year with Keenum than they were with goff.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Side note Crabtree came to my mind when thinking of Adams and his Ypr numbers.

 

He's a career 12.0 guy and has established himself as a pretty high floor guy now with the good qb.

 

I can see Adams's touchdowns coming back to earth with a bump to the rest of this stat line.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

yes easily. watkins is more talented. DA had 12 tds last year, making him a prime target for regression.

 

DA went for 75/995/12 last year. in 2015 he went for 50/483/1. he's averaged 11.8 y/r for his 3 year career.

 

after DAs break out last year (and watkins injury) they have similar career numbers, but watkins has averaged 16.1 y/r, has 533 more career yards, is a year younger than DA and did all that with a QB cast considerably less talented than ARog.

 

yes, easily.

DA absolutely is a candidate for regression but that does not directly correlate into Watkins staying healthy and/or having a productive season.

 

1 year age difference is close to meaningless lol they're both young.

 

Give me the player coming off his best season with a HOF QB... not the one stuck in pedestrian offense with unknown QB play.

 

Call me naïve.

[ralphster 274]

I won't. In fact I respect your opinion. Our differences in player evaluation are part of what makes FF so much fun.

 

[typhus 13]

Good thread, respect everyones opinion here.

The WR that really gets the bump up, is the one replacing Watkins in Buffalo, that being Jordan Mathews.

Dont like Sammy going to the Rams, but I will still draft him at a bargain if and when is ADP takes a severe dip.