Ronnie Brown - Steppin Up or Steppin Down?

[Kilroy 0]

As a rookie Ronnie Brown averaged just under 14 carries a game while splitting time in the backfield with Ricky Williams. Through the first four games of the season, while Williams was serving his four game suspension for violating the leagues drug policy, Brown carried the ball 74 times for 321 yards (4.3 ypc) while scoring 1 touchdown. After a slow start in the first two games of the season, Brown busted out in Week 3 against Carolina with 23 carries for 132 yards and 1 touchdown. After the bye, he followed that performance by rushing for just under 100 yards on 17 carries in Week 5 against Buffalo.

 

Week 6 marked the return of Ricky Williams. For whatever reason, the Dolphins only ran the ball a total of 14 times between the two backs in that game. Brown had 9 carries with a TD while Williams had 5. Week 7 it was the same thing, with Brown carrying 8 times for 95 yards and another TD, while Williams carried the rock 6 times for -1 yard.

 

In Week 8 the Dolphins finally got back to running the ball while using both backs efficently. It was a trend that continued throughout the remainder of the season. From Week 8 on, both backs received no less than 11 carries in every game except for two, in which Brown carried the ball 9 times in one outing, and 8 in the final game of the season.

 

Despite sharing time in the backfield with a runner as talented as Ricky Williams over the final 12 games of the season, Brown still managed to rush for 907 yards and 5 touchdowns while averaging 4.38 a carry. Had he not missed the Week 16 contest, he may have reached the thousand yard plateau his first year in the league. He also tacked on another 232 yards receiving out of the backfield.

 

As Brown prepares for the 2006 season, he now finds himself being the primary back on virtually all downs in the Miami offense. With Ricky Williams failing another drug test and being suspended for the season, the door has opened for Brown to take over. He will also be playing with a more talented QB than a season ago after the Dolphins acquired Daunte Culpepper in the offseason and let last years starter, Gus Frerotte, leave via free agency.

 

After splitting time in college with fellow first round pick from a year ago Cadillac Williams, and then doing so again his first year in the league with Ricky Williams, will Brown be able to step up and carry a heavier load or will the burden of being a full time back hurt his production in the end and keep him from busting out?

[hipcheck 0]

Great Question. I think Fantasyguru.com has him as high as like #6 I believe.

BROWN definitely looks to have everything in place for a breakout season. I'd

still be alittle nervous about using my #1 pick on him and building the team/season

around him, but you are almost forced to do it if you are picking 7-12 .

[Leonard Henry -2 Yds 0]

Say hello to Kevan Barlow version 2004.

 

People are jocking this guy's nuts inexplicably.

[Wildman 0]

Barlow is a good guy to bring up here. Here is his career stats:

 

Year	G	GS	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Rush Tds	Rec Yd	Rec Td	FF Pts
2001	15	0	125	512	4	247	1	105.9
2002	14	0	145	675	4	136	1	111.1
2003	16	0	201	1024	6	307	1	175.1
2004	15	0	244	822	7	212	0	145.4
2005	12	0	176	581	3	241	0	100.2

 

Barlow had a nice ypc average for the first few years of his career while splitting time with Garrison Hearst. The Niners did have a better offensive line than the Dolphins, but I don't mean to take anything away from Barlow's talents as a runner.

 

Last Name	G	FPG	Crank	Sub Par	Elite	RB #1	RB #2
Brown	15	9.59	20.71	20.00%	0.00%	33.33%	53.33%
Barlow	15	7.06	10.36	46.67%	0.00%	13.33%	33.33%

 

Brown had about 82 more carries than Barlow in their respective rookie seasons so it can be argued more opportunity was the reason for Brown's higher production and consistency.

 

But there are some observational differences among Brown's team situation and other rookies that sophomore slumped (Kevin and Julius Jones, William Green, etc) or failed to live up to the hype (Barlow).

 

Detroit , Cleveland, and San Francisco couldn't stop anyone on defense. The offenses were pass-first, finesse offenses of the west coast or west coast hybrid variety. Miami is a run first offense with a better defense that is capable of keeping them in the game against 2/3-3/4 of the teams they'll face. This alone will give Ronnie Brown more opporutnities. Kevin Jones slumped because the Detroit offense was horrible and the defense wasn't all that hot. Jones got impatient last year and reverted to bad habits.

 

Barlow was never going to be a top 10 back because he played on a team that couldn't do anything to sustain a drive or stop a drive. How exactly is he going to get opportunities where the defense hasn't already read the play, and blown it up in the backfield? A back has to be very special to play at a high level despite his surroundings: Marshall Faulk with Indy, Walter Payton pre-46 defense years, and Barry Sanders.

 

I think Brown is a dangerous pick as a top 10 back, although I believe he has the ability and work ethic (something Barlow always lacked--it was regularly mentioned that he didn't work out very hard and just relied on his youth and natural athletic ability) to produce at this level. Brown was the 1st back picked in the draft for some excellent reasons. Barlow had first round ability but a 6th round attitude and approach to the game...

 

When you add Brown and Williams stats together from last year, he's a certain top 10 pick maybe even top 5, but that's too optimistic for my taste. Once Barlow got the job full time, the bottom basically dropped out of the Niners team. Brown's team is on his way up. I'd feel good about Brown as my second back and if I were in late first round in a serpentine I might go for him as my #1 if I had a reasonable chance to get a very solid #2 RB on the way back.

 

I think Brown is steppin' up for sure. I just wouldn't say he's leaping atop the heap of fantasy RBs, just yet.

[devildog 0]

I'd like to see him handle more than 200 carries in a season before projecting him as a stud.

[texasmouth 1]

I think he will be a top ten fantasy back and easily a top ten NFL back.

[pook187 0]

If you can get him with your 2nd round pick you will probably win your league, unless you are a complete tool.

[mikeso 0]

Say hello to Kevan Barlow version 2004.

 

People are jocking this guy's nuts inexplicably.

 

woooooooo...i heard that !

[hipcheck 0]

Just throwing this out there, .... BROWN looked like an Absolute "Thoroughbred" Athlete out there, at the Combine last year. Built like a Tank, and Runs like a Track-Star. They said he was also the best Wide-Receiver in the entire draft class as well. In a 12 Team redraft (1/2pt./rec.) I think BROWN may slip below acouple of the "Stud" WR's....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[ellisonb11 0]

i expect great things from ronnie this year. but i worry if he can carry the load this year. he had ricky last year, and caddy at auburn. but i still expect a monster season from him. just ask solo matisse, he will certainly defend him as a top back.

[SoloMatisse 0]

i expect great things from ronnie this year. but i worry if he can carry the load this year. he had ricky last year, and caddy at auburn. but i still expect a monster season from him. just ask solo matisse, he will certainly defend him as a top back.

 

 

Yes, yes....Ill vouch for that....just took him with the 5th overall pick, but Im a risk taking kind of guy. If youre the same kind of player, then go after him between 5 and 10, but dont expect him to fall to the 2nd round in too many drafts. Our draft was today, so very early, and I was forced to make a tough choice, but there's no looking back. I like how Nick Saban has his program moving, as well as his history of production from alot of his offensive players(primarily at the college level). I know it was a bit early, but my feeling is if you see someone in a spot you want, dont worry about where other people would take him....just make the pick and feel good about it. Barlow comparisons are a little pointless.....he was playing for arguably the worst franchise in the league. Miami is in a place far from where that once proud franchise has fallen.........

[Savage Beast 1]

Say hello to Kevan Barlow version 2004.

 

People are jocking this guy's nuts inexplicably.

 

The main difference being that Brown is a stud, and Barlow is a dud. The 2 are not even comparable

[devildog 0]

The main difference being that Brown is a stud, and Barlow is a dud. The 2 are not even comparable

 

Barlow was thought to be a stud too.

[Savage Beast 1]

Barlow was thought to be a stud too.

 

By who? The numb nuts around here . Haven't you figured it out by now that the numb nuts around here don't know their fantasy football elbows from their fantasy football a-holes. The fantasy info around here is .

[SoloMatisse 0]

Youve just gotta know who to listen to......

 

 

[devildog 0]

By who? The numb nuts around here . Haven't you figured it out by now that the numb nuts around here don't know their fantasy football elbows from their fantasy football a-holes. The fantasy info around here is .

 

It's easy to look back and see the truth. Not so easy when you have a limited sample to go by.

 

Barlow in 2003

201 carries 1024 yards 5.1 YPC 6 TDs

 

Ronnie in 2005

207 carries 907 yards 4.4 YPC 4 TDs

[Savage Beast 1]

It's easy to look back and see the truth. Not so easy when you have a limited sample to go by.

 

Barlow in 2003

201 carries 1024 yards 5.1 YPC 6 TDs

 

Ronnie in 2005

207 carries 907 yards 4.4 YPC 4 TDs

 

What in the h<ll does R.Brown have to do with K.Barlow?????? What do 2 totally different RB's numbers from 2 different teams have to do with each other??????????? Nothing, that's what.

[devildog 0]

What in the h<ll does R.Brown have to do with K.Barlow?????? What do 2 totally different RB's numbers from 2 different teams have to do with each other??????????? Nothing, that's what.

 

That it's risky taking a guy in the first round of a fantasy draft who has 200 carries of work to look back on. Ask the guys who took Kevin and Julius Jones last year based on what they did with limited work. I'd like to see the guy carry the ball 300 times once in his career before taking him over some of the guys he's routinely being drafted ahead of.

[Savage Beast 1]

That it's risky taking a guy in the first round of a fantasy draft who has 200 carries of work to look back on.

 

From now on post statements like this instead of posting the numbers of a pathetic excuse of a fantasy RB like Barlow. Barlow had his chance and he blew it, and it has nothing to do with R.Brown.

[SoloMatisse 0]

there could be a hundred examples of who the next so and so is. Who's gonna be the next McGahee?? How bout the next Jamal Lewis? Can anyone tell me who the next Domanic Davis is gonna be?? How bout the next Kevin Jones? Has there been a Fred Taylor clone sighting yet? How bout the next Chris Brown?????......anybody seen that guy? I could waste my time and drop all the #s and draw all the proper comparisons, but seriously.......what's the point???

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Yes, yes....Ill vouch for that....just took him with the 5th overall pick, but Im a risk taking kind of guy. If youre the same kind of player, then go after him between 5 and 10, but dont expect him to fall to the 2nd round in too many drafts. Our draft was today, so very early, and I was forced to make a tough choice, but there's no looking back. I like how Nick Saban has his program moving, as well as his history of production from alot of his offensive players(primarily at the college level). I know it was a bit early, but my feeling is if you see someone in a spot you want, dont worry about where other people would take him....just make the pick and feel good about it. Barlow comparisons are a little pointless.....he was playing for arguably the worst franchise in the league. Miami is in a place far from where that once proud franchise has fallen.........

 

Wow. I'll have what he's having!

 

I agree that Ronnie has a high upside but the 5th pick overall? If you're picking that high in the draft don't you want to get as close as possible to a sure thing? What has Brown done to be rewarded with that high of a status? I could see Portis, Barber, James, Jackson, Jordan, and even Manning in front of Brown because they are safer picks.

 

You are definitely a gambler but my question is does it make a lot of sense to be gambling already with the 5th overall pick in the draft? What seperates the 5th pick from the 11th pick is that the 5th pick is usually less of a gamble than the 11th. Isn't that the way it usually works?

 

Just my opinion. You may end up looking like a genius Solo, but that pick would scare the crap out of me.

[icecheeze 0]

miami's backs last year...

 

375-1650-4.4 10tds

49-325 1td

 

i think ronnie gets close...1500 and 400, 12 tds...solid 1st round pick, top 6 ahead of tiki...behind the big 3, edge and portis...

[SoloMatisse 0]

Wow. I'll have what he's having!

 

I agree that Ronnie has a high upside but the 5th pick overall? If you're picking that high in the draft don't you want to get as close as possible to a sure thing? What has Brown done to be rewarded with that high of a status? I could see Portis, Barber, James, Jackson, Jordan, and even Manning in front of Brown because they are safer picks.

 

You are definitely a gambler but my question is does it make a lot of sense to be gambling already with the 5th overall pick in the draft? What seperates the 5th pick from the 11th pick is that the 5th pick is usually less of a gamble than the 11th. Isn't that the way it usually works?

 

Just my opinion. You may end up looking like a genius Solo, but that pick would scare the crap out of me.

 

 

Right. This was definitely NOT a value pick. I was slotted in the 5 hole, and we made a pre-draft rule to not trade draft positions, otherwise Id have tried to move down. I dont know, I just get tired of the same old thing in some of these drafts. You know, the predicability of the top 5, EVERYONE knowing that 4 and 5 will be either Portis or Tiki. Tiki was there for me, but I just felt like doing something different, honestly. Barber was a strong pick for our scoring system based on his productivity the past few years, but I just dont see him following up last year with anything close to that. And in the 5 spot, I want someone who can possibly get me 15TDs. I think Brown offers that kindof potential. He has ZERO competition in that O at RB, so he'll be on the field as often as he wants, and he'll get to play against two of the weaker teams in the league, both offensively and defensively in the Jets and Bills.......TWICE. His schedule is sick, especially during the FF playoffs. His size, speed and ability to catch are obvious positives, but Ricky Williams out of town and NOT in that locker room is the x factor I really like. I wouldnt even want my boy Brown hanging around that fruitcake. Now that he's clearly the man, and in his 2nd year of Saban's O, I see this player and team continuing to improve. Besides, people wont label you a 'guru' for envisioning a nice Tiki Barber season coming......... you get called 'guru' for reaching for guys like Ron Brown with the 5th overall and watching them blowup. A little feast or famine potential here, but its FF...........and to me, on the edge is the only way to play.

 

[Riddlen 1]

Right. This was definitely NOT a value pick. I was slotted in the 5 hole, and we made a pre-draft rule to not trade draft positions, otherwise Id have tried to move down. I dont know, I just get tired of the same old thing in some of these drafts. You know, the predicability of the top 5, EVERYONE knowing that 4 and 5 will be either Portis or Tiki. Tiki was there for me, but I just felt like doing something different, honestly. Barber was a strong pick for our scoring system based on his productivity the past few years, but I just dont see him following up last year with anything close to that. And in the 5 spot, I want someone who can possibly get me 15TDs. I think Brown offers that kindof potential. He has ZERO competition in that O at RB, so he'll be on the field as often as he wants, and he'll get to play against two of the weaker teams in the league, both offensively and defensively in the Jets and Bills.......TWICE. His schedule is sick, especially during the FF playoffs. His size, speed and ability to catch are obvious positives, but Ricky Williams out of town and NOT in that locker room is the x factor I really like. I wouldnt even want my boy Brown hanging around that fruitcake. Now that he's clearly the man, and in his 2nd year of Saban's O, I see this player and team continuing to improve. Besides, people wont label you a 'guru' for envisioning a nice Tiki Barber season coming......... you get called 'guru' for reaching for guys like Ron Brown with the 5th overall and watching them blowup. A little feast or famine potential here, but its FF...........and to me, on the edge is the only way to play.

 

 

 

people say that about tiki EVERY year, and EVERY year the guy produces. RBs blow this year, Ronnie Brown will be one of the first 10 off the board. also, new rule.

 

NEVAH, NEVAH pass on tiki barber

[SoloMatisse 0]

people say that about tiki EVERY year, and EVERY year the guy produces. RBs blow this year, Ronnie Brown will be one of the first 10 off the board. also, new rule.

 

NEVAH, NEVAH pass on tiki barber

 

 

The notepad's out, and Im jotting that nugget down...priceless info there. thanks.

[Natural Lights 0]

See Brown as roughly a 8-10 TD guy, maybe with 1300 yards. Would not take him until late first early second round however. Someone like Solo will likely want him more than me. I am also concerned that Pepper may steal some of his TD's.

 

However there are too many proven guys ahead of him. I am seeing him go in most mocks at the 5-7 pick range.

[TD Ryan2 314]

1. yes, Ronnie Brown is steppin up this year, but I still won't be taking him with a 1st round pick.

 

 

2. Why I probably won't get Ronnie Brown in my draft(s) this year:

it is inevitable that he'll go in the mid-late 1st and if/when I'm faced with drafting Ronnie Brown OR The Elite QB (Manning)/Elite WRs (Owens, Holt, CJ) I'll opt for the elite QB/WR.

 

 

3. for Solo:

- yes, his schedule is fantastic; it's a nice little bonus when considering Ronnie Brown this year.

But the idea that you want to take Ronnie over Tiki (2000 yards) or Portis because you want to be "different" or come out looking like a guru is, IMO, misguided. Take risks after round 3, not when you're drafting the core of your team.

Also, what more must Tiki do to be considered tier 1-B? He's finished (depending on scoring system) Top 3 the past 2 season and averages 1500+ yards EVERY year. If you haven't, look at his 3 year and 5 year averages, the numbers are amazing. I just don't understand why people still consider Tiki to be nothing more than W Dunn or Charlie Garner. Tiki is borderline Marshall Faulk, and with the NYG's offense continually improving, Tiki's odds of producing are even better.

 

 

4. MIA/Saban/Culpepper

- There's a lot of hype over MIA's improvement this year. And while I agree that they're on the right track, I'm not sure that they're even ready to be atop the AFC East, nevermind the NFL. So, at this point, all the MIA hype is just that, hype. Culpepper, Chambers, and Ronnie Brown... are three of the "hottest" names in ffball right now and I'm not sure how justified all of it is; Chambers may be the one most worthy of his hype.

[favoritepsalm1 0]

I expect Miami's passing game to improve this year, taking some pressure off of Mr. Brown. He'll finish top 10.

[Patoons 0]

That it's risky taking a guy in the first round of a fantasy draft who has 200 carries of work to look back on. Ask the guys who took Kevin and Julius Jones last year based on what they did with limited work. I'd like to see the guy carry the ball 300 times once in his career before taking him over some of the guys he's routinely being drafted ahead of.

 

Ronnie Brown was drafted 2nd overall... Barlow was drafted in the 3rd. Tough to compare the two regardless of the similarities in performance.

[Parkers99 0]

What can Brown do for you?

 

Win your championship; good pick Solo.

[SamL2700 0]

Don't forget that Miami added Mularkey as their offensive coordinator, which should only help brown.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

The main difference being that Brown is a stud, and Barlow is a dud. The 2 are not even comparable

 

One back was a top 10 draft pick, and one wasn't for a reason.

 

The fact that Culpepper's back there to amp up the passing game makes Brown a viable stud pick this year.

 

The only think I'm wary of is the offensive line down there. If memory serves me correctly, they're not exactly the best unit.

 

BTW, Miami is a 10 win team this year.

[bgard72 10]

1. yes, Ronnie Brown is steppin up this year, but I still won't be taking him with a 1st round pick.

2. Why I probably won't get Ronnie Brown in my draft(s) this year:

it is inevitable that he'll go in the mid-late 1st and if/when I'm faced with drafting Ronnie Brown OR The Elite QB (Manning)/Elite WRs (Owens, Holt, CJ) I'll opt for the elite QB/WR.

3. for Solo:

- yes, his schedule is fantastic; it's a nice little bonus when considering Ronnie Brown this year.

But the idea that you want to take Ronnie over Tiki (2000 yards) or Portis because you want to be "different" or come out looking like a guru is, IMO, misguided. Take risks after round 3, not when you're drafting the core of your team.

Also, what more must Tiki do to be considered tier 1-B? He's finished (depending on scoring system) Top 3 the past 2 season and averages 1500+ yards EVERY year. If you haven't, look at his 3 year and 5 year averages, the numbers are amazing. I just don't understand why people still consider Tiki to be nothing more than W Dunn or Charlie Garner. Tiki is borderline Marshall Faulk, and with the NYG's offense continually improving, Tiki's odds of producing are even better.

4. MIA/Saban/Culpepper

- There's a lot of hype over MIA's improvement this year. And while I agree that they're on the right track, I'm not sure that they're even ready to be atop the AFC East, nevermind the NFL. So, at this point, all the MIA hype is just that, hype. Culpepper, Chambers, and Ronnie Brown... are three of the "hottest" names in ffball right now and I'm not sure how justified all of it is; Chambers may be the one most worthy of his hype.

 

TD Ryan...I love your point #3 about taking risks in the first 3 rounds. Last year, I took "risky" RB's with my second and third round picks. In the 2nd, I took Julius Jones. In the 3rd, I took Steven Jackson. Both were relatively unproven backs...and I made them both my #1 and #2 guys. Big mistake!!! And I learned from my mistakes.

 

In round 2, I passed on Tiki and took Julius. I remember sitting there and trying to decide on both of them. I had Tiki a bit higher on my board, but I bit into the hype of Julius Jones for last year.

 

In round 3, I could have chosen T Jones or Lamont Jordan. Jackson wasn't a bad #2 RB for my team...unfortunately with how bad JJ did, I used Jackson as my #1. He had too many games of below 50 yards rushing for any #1 back.

 

I will try to be a bit safer in my picks this year. If anything, I may take a bit of a risk with my #2 RB only.

[rebooters 1]

Barlow comparisons are a little pointless.....he was playing for arguably the worst franchise in the league. Miami is in a place far from where that once proud franchise has fallen.........

 

yea, you cant compare RB to barlow. barlow isnt even close to the talent that brown is. with a healthy cpepp, brown can sky into the top 5 RB's and reward those who had the balls to take him this year.

[duaneok66 0]

people say that about tiki EVERY year, and EVERY year the guy produces. RBs blow this year, Ronnie Brown will be one of the first 10 off the board. also, new rule.

 

NEVAH, NEVAH pass on tiki barber

 

 

even when he's fifty years old??

[bswarriors 0]

even when he's fifty years old??

 

 

People are making comparisions to rb's that fell on their face in year 2(KJ, JJ etc) but has everyone forgot how LT2 second year went. he went early to late 2nd in most ff drafts and whoever got LT2 in 2002 made a nice run at a successfull season. I see more similiarities to LT2 2nd year than KJ and JJ.

 

I am at pick 6 so Ronnie is on my radar

[duaneok66 0]

People are making comparisions to rb's that fell on their face in year 2(KJ, JJ etc) but has everyone forgot how LT2 second year went. he went early to late 2nd in most ff drafts and whoever got LT2 in 2002 made a nice run at a successfull season. I see more similiarities to LT2 2nd year than KJ and JJ.

 

I am at pick 6 so Ronnie is on my radar

 

 

did you quote the wrong post . . . I was referring to Barber . . .

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

I watched Ronnie Brown run past, around, and sometimes over SEC competition for years in college. He is a stud, period. He has a great blend of speed and power, and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Apparently, Nick Saban agreed, as he picked Ronnie #2 in spite of having Ricky Williams around.

 

I find many of the arguments against playes on this site odd. Every player has a knock. Cedric Benson? He carried too many times in college. Took too much punishment. Ronnie Brown? Apparently, some of you feel he didn't carry enough in college or his rookie year, and as such, will wilt under the pressure of a full load. What exactly is the exact proper amount of "wear" for a back to have?

 

Bottom line: Brown is on a well coached, run first team with at a minimum competend QB, WR, DEF around him. Most importantly, there is absolutely no competition for carries. I see absolutely no reason not to expect him to blow up this season. Looking for a sure thing in the first round? No such thing in FF folks. Backs who have historically been monsters (Tiki, Rudi, etc.) could break down and fall off the map. All you can do is look for players who are in a position to excel. Ronnie Brown is definately in such a situation.

 

I personally perfer to draft players with upside rather than players that have no place to go but down. Brown v. Barber? Barber is getting old, has an up and coming goaline specialist who may begin to take carries away elsewhere, and has probably the toughest schedule of any back in the NFL. I think Tiki will be ok, and don't expect a C. Martinesque decline. But I predict that Brown will end the year higher rated as both a FF and NFL back.

 

I won't even address any aforementioned comparisons between Brown and K. Barlow, as they are patently absurd on their face, for reasons pointed out above.

[mr.shitty 0]

im hoping to get him at #5 (keeper league so %4 may pass on tiki)

[DanXIII 8]

The Brown-Barlow comparisons are hilarious

 

Brown ran behind a patchwork OL last year, splitting time, with GUS friggin' FREROTTE as his QB, and managed over 1000 total yards. This year's line is improved, the QB situation is improved, and he's not splitting carries. Could he pull a Kevin Jones this year? Absolutely. Will he? Unlikely. He's easily a top 10 back this year in a weak RB class beyond the SA-LJ-LT triumvirate. Take him with confidence past pick 7 or so.