*** '07 Player Projections By NFL Team ***

[NAn 39]

To prepare FFTodayers for the upcoming ’07 season, starting 5/14 will post threads listing offensive players by NFL team and invite posters to attach projections to each offensive player.

Posting of just commentary on one or multiple players, instead of projections is welcomed and encouraged as well.

 

Will post 3 team threads per week (2 during 4th of July week) alphabetically by team city, so will have all 32 NFL teams posted before August 1st.

Through beginning of FF season will hopefully have this thread pinned as an ‘Archives’ thread, so will have opportunity to post replies for any previous team at any time.

 

Player Projections By NFL Team: Archives Thread Link

Atlanta Falcons: Team/Players Statistical History Link

Joe Horn: Statistical History Link

 

ATLANTA FALCONS

 

’06 Statistics

 |---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL 
		  CMP  ATT   YD	YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD	YPA  TD	 YD   
		  222  416  2682   6.45  21  15  537  2939  5.47   9   5621
NFL rank --->  32   32   32	 23   14  14	1	1	 1   23	  9

QB
| Name				 |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | RSH YARD TD |
| Michael Vick		 | 16 | 204 388  52.6 2474  6.4 20 13 | 123 1039  2 |
RB
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Warrick Dunn		 | 16 |  286  1140   4.0   4  |   22   170   7.7   1 |
| Jerious Norwood	  | 14 |   99   633   6.4   2  |   12   102   8.5   0 |
WR
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Michael Jenkins	  | 16 |	1	 2   2.0   0  |   39   436  11.2   7 |
| Roddy White		  | 16 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   30   506  16.9   0 |
| Joe Horn			 | 10 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   37   679  18.4   4 |
TE
| Name				 |  G |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Alge Crumpler		| 16 |   56   780  13.9   8 | 

Notes:

HC BPetrino: Hired during offseason, 41-9 as HC Louisville, 3 yrs NFL exp with Jacksonville Jaguars (2 yrs as QB coach/OC)

QB MVick: 3rd HC in 4 yrs

RB WDunn: 11th year, 31 years old

RB JNorwood: 2nd year after impressive rookie season in limited duty

WR JHorn: Joins Falcons from Saints for 12th season (35 years old)

WR MJenkins: 4th yr

WR RWhite: 3rd yr

TE ACrumpler: lead Falcons recs/rec yds past 3 seasons

 

Key Questions For '07 Season:

Will MVick ever become accomplished passer?

Especially with 3rd HC in 4 years?

What will be carry(overall/rz/gl)/rec distribution between WDunn/JNorwood?

Can either MJenkins/RWhite step up?

Can JHorn contribute significantly?

Will ACrumpler remain Vick’s main target?

[famousb 11]

Notes:

HC BPetrino: Hired during offseason, 41-9 as HC Louisville, 3 yrs NFL exp with Jacksonville Jaguars (2 yrs as QB coach/OC)

QB MVick: 3rd HC in 4 yrs

RB WDunn: 11th year, 31 years old

RB JNorwood: 2nd year after impressive rookie season in limited duty

WR MJenkins: 4th yr

WR RWhite: 3rd yr

TE ACrumpler: lead Falcons recs/rec yds past 3 seasons

 

Key Questions For '07 Season:

Will MVick ever become accomplished passer?

Especially with 3rd HC in 4 years?

What will be carry(overall/rz/gl)/rec distribution between WDunn/JNorwood?

Can either Mjenkins/RWhite step up?

Will ACrumpler remain Vick’s main target?

 

not that i'm error-checking your work or anything , but Dunn is 32... born 1/5/75, and it's 2007 (i know we all lose track of time once-in-awhile )

also, don't forget the Falcons added Horn, who will probably be the #2 WR ahead of Roddy White (who would probably have been the #4 if Finneran didn't just blow out his ACL again).

 

and what if Goodell decides he can't have a double-standard and actually does suspend Vick for a few games? also of note is that last year was the first year Vick played all 16 games, and also his first season as a 1,000 yd RB (uh, i mean rushing QB).

 

my thoughts:

obviously i think Vick is the RB on this team to get right now, but until FFsites actually classify him as that we won't be able to play him in that position. therefore, i'm going to go against the trend and target Dunn (if i target either) since he should easily be available in later rounds and we know he will perform if given the opportunity - the only question is how much of an opp. Petrino will give him. But the more pass-to-the-rb-friendly system could see Dunn getting back into the 50 rec. range - which running in the open field is really his strength. Question is can Vick learn to dump off to the RB as a safety valve instead of just taking off w/ it himself? if Vick does start doing this, i think we'll see a pretty significant drop in Vick's rushing numbers, but an equivalent increase in his passing numbers. If so, this will hurt him in alot of leagues that score rushing more favorably for QBs (e.g. 1 pt / 10 rush v. 1 pt / 25 pass would mean 250 rush yds = 25 pts, where 250 pass yds only = 10 pts).

 

also of note is a recent quote from Petrino about their RB situation:

Moreover, the coach made special mention of seventh-round pick Jason Snelling from Virginia, who he hopes can handle the short yardage and goal-line work for the Falcons in 2007. "He started off a little slow in minicamp but got better each day and was starting to see things and make some cuts," Petrino said of Snelling. "He'd be a cross between a big running back and play some fullback. And he's got really good hands, so he's a very valuable part of the puzzle."

[NAn 39]

Jeez, I suck, rethinking taking this on.

 

Going to have to run things by some homers as I do each team.

 

Anyway...fixored.

[famousb 11]

Jeez, I suck, rethinking taking this on.

 

Going to have to run things by some homers as I do each team.

 

Anyway...fixored.

nah, you're doing a great job... and i like having something to look at first thing in the morning and to think about... there's always tons of situations and possible scenarious to consider, especially this early in the year... keep it up and things can only get clearer and easier as the year goes on!!

[jocstrap 8]

I like the division Atlanta is in to have some huge running games

TB, Car, and NO are all suseptable to the run

 

That being said, I'm not sure wich running back I like best on this team. Vick, Dunn, or Norwood

Wasn't this the #1 rushing team in the league last year?

 

I try to figure out which player will have the best value in a 12 team redraft.

 

Projections -

 

Vick - a great 6th round QB if available - I can't take him in the 5th though

2500 passing yards 21 td's

850 rushing yards 4 td's

 

RB - OOF - this one is tricky

Norwood - 1100 rushing yards 8 td's 400 receiving yards 3 td's - - hit or miss late 4th/5th round choice as your #3 running back - - the type of gamble that might win you the or cost you a higher round pick

 

Dunn - 300 rushing yards 1td 500 receiving yards 3 td's - - very nice value for someone will to take him as your #4 after the 8th round only for me though

 

TE - Crumpler will still get the majority of the looks I feel like

50 receptions - 7 td's

The only WR I would take on this team

 

Jenkins - - 40 receptions 7 td's again this year very respectable if he's around after the 10th round

 

Horn - - 25 receptions 1 td

 

I feel as if Norwood has won the respect and will get the majority of the carries. Dunn will become the receiver out of the back field with the occasional draw play.

 

I honestly wonder if Vick is going to be suspended though for the dog fighting on his property?

[Dan 66]

Michael Vick is obviously the story, and puts a lot of this team in havoc. I don't think that they are destitute without him, but I think that it significantly changes the way the offense shapes up. Duh.

 

I personally wouldn't touch Vick in any round, but I was very low on him to begin with. I don't believe that he is a quality NFL quarterback, and 1000 yard seasons rushing are not the norm, even for an amazing athlete at the QB position. I'm not wasting the draft pick necessary for that.

 

The RBs are the watching point right now. I believe that Norwood is the real deal, and will secure the starting spot at some point. Depending on how much Petrino values Dunn's experience, it will be sooner or later. I think that Norwood will be worth the round 4 pick that it will take come August to get him. Training camp will tell a lot, but Norwood is younger, bigger, faster than Dunn, and catches very well also. Dunn's experience, though, becomes invaluable with such a young lineup around him.

 

The receivers all have flaws, but I honestly believe that if Vick is suspended, their numbers will go up. They aren't tremendous, but any backup is likely to throw a more catchable ball on a more consistent basis. People can trash the receivers for not being able to catch a cold, but Vick has never learned touch and throws to impress. A QB who throws with a little touch will do much better.

[FantasyKing 4]

 

Horn - - 25 receptions 1 td

 

 

Wow - no love for Joe eh? You just think no one there will be able to get him the ball or do you think he lost a step? I know Vick stinks at getting the ball to WRs but I think thats very low for Horn barring injury.

[jocstrap 8]

Wow - no love for Joe eh? You just think no one there will be able to get him the ball or do you think he lost a step? I know Vick stinks at getting the ball to WRs but I think thats very low for Horn barring injury.

 

 

A combination of Horn losing a few steps and Vick

 

This number I think will go up if Harrington is the QB though and Vick is suspended.

[Walter34 3]

Pending Vick's possible suspension of course:

 

Norwood 1050 yds, 100 rec yds, 8 Tds

Dunn 500 yds, 500 rec yds, 5 TDs

 

Horn 60-800-5

Jenkins 50-650-3

White 40-550-2

Crumpler 65-850-6

 

Vick 2900 yds passing, 21 Tds, 13 Ints, 800 yds rush, 6 rush Tds

[Little Big Head 6]

The more Im reading about Norwood in camp, the more I think hes primed to make some noise this year

[Fumbleweed 555]

Just some initial projections here:

 

Michael Vick 2,600 passing yards, 18 TDs, 11 INTs; 840 rushing yards, 4 TDs (299 fantasy points)

 

Jerious Norwood- 240 carries, 1,145 yards, 6 TDs; 140 yards receiving, 0 TD (165 fantasy points)

 

Warrick Dunn- 170 carries, 765 yards, 3 TDs; 190 yards receiving, 2 TDs (126 fantasy points)

 

Joe Horn- 56 receptions, 725 yards, 4 TDs (103 fantasy points)

 

Michael Jenkins- 52 receptions, 650 yards, 4 TDs; 50 rushing yards (90 fantasy points)

 

Alge Crumpler- 62 receptions, 700 yards, 6 TDs (106 fantasy points)

 

With Petrino on board, it's hard to know how or if this offense will change much. My guess is that he'll feel out what he's got as the year progresses and by year's end, a guy like Norwood may become more valuable. Vick's passing numbers don't look impressive and they won't be consistent, but when you add up total fantasy points, you realize that he'll likely still be in the top 6-8 at QB barring a suspension from the league.