****OFFICIAL college football betting THREAD****

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

I love the big plays on Stanford and Ohio, PB.

 

C Michigan is a lean for me as well.

 

I wouldn't touch OSU this week though in the Dome.

[GobbleDog 989]

Michigan -3 @ Northwestern

 

I posted earlier in the week that the NW game seemed really tempting and it still does, but I'm starting to be a bit skeptical about that line. Action has been more than 60% on NW all week and that damn thing hasn't budged that I've seen. I have a gut feeling that the line is gonna get slammed close to game time.....on the Michigan side (-3 right now). Anyone else have any thoughts on that? maybe I'm being a conspiracy theorist here but something doesn't feel right.

I've been burned a few times this year betting against Northwestern. They keep over achieving. According to the "experts", they were'nt supposed to be that good this year.

 

I'm going to bet on Michigan, but I definately won't bet very much. That pesky Northwestern keeps stealing my money.

[LavarIsAnAnimal 0]

I went with this teaser, you guys approve?

 

Va Tech -.5

Purdue +28

Washington State +42

Northwestern +16

I don't like it. Betting AGAINST USC? That's tough. And Virginia Tech should win, but Boston College is certainly no pushover. Nobody would be shocked if they went and pulled off the upset. I've got a bunch of 13 point teasers this week. All of them include TEN-1 over South Carolina. No way in the world South Carolina pulls off that upset. Not even Spurrier can do that with the lowely Gamec0cks.

 

I also like Michigan St -5 over Indiana.... Indiana sucks pretty bad. Michigan St. should win by 30+ at home. A few others I'm using include FSU-4 over Maryland and Wake Forest-1 over Duke....

 

Powerhouse teams versus bottom dwellers. I've been VERY succesful doing this all year with 13 point teasers.

BC no pushover huh? Game didn't seem too close last night.

 

I'm not betting against USC, they'll win sure, show me the list of teams they've beaten by 42 points though. And then check out who washington state has hung with

[markblaz 0]

Colorado St @ New Mexico -5.5 o/u 60

 

anybody have any opinions on this game? early in the week, i liked colorado st. getting the points, because i feel these are 2 pretty evenly matched teams. however, colorado st. has a ton of injuries. although the injuries may not be that big of a deal, because they only have 2 major injuries, the LB and one of the DT's. but the starting LB being out is the key to me, his absence should allow dontrell moore (new mexico) to run all over them. moore has run for 577 yards against colorado st. the past 3 seasons, thats almost 200 yards per game! and it can only hurt that the LB is out. if you look at the strenghts of colorado st. they love to throw the ball, and that plays right into the strenght of the new mexico defense, because they have pretty solid corners, and should be able to shut down colorado st. enough to get the job done and win by a td or so. i expect a huge game by moore, the new mexico defense to shut down the passing attack of colorado st, and a cover by new mexico at home.

[GobbleDog 989]

I'm not betting against USC, they'll win sure, show me the list of teams they've beaten by 42 points though. And then check out who washington state has hung with

I don't disagree with the pick, but with a 13 point teaser I think there are "safer" games to play. They are 30 point underdogs for a good reason. They're on the road against the #1 team in the nation who can score a lot of points quickly. That would make me nervous.

 

But it sounds like you know these teams a little better than I do. (Honestly I don't know squat about Washington St.)

[GobbleDog 989]

I noticed nobody is betting on the Florida/Georgia game.

 

I don't blame yall. I won't touch it. Both teams have good defenses and both teams have offensive problems. Should be a low scoring game that gets decided late in the 4th quarter.

 

go gators!

[Guest cklennon]

Added:

Colorado State @ New Mexico -5

Colorado State @ New Mexico OVER 58'

Arizona @ Oregon State -8'

Purdue @ Penn State -14'

Utah State +34' @ Alabama

Navy +7 @ Rutgers

Central Florida +2' @ East Carolina

North Carolina @ Miami -20

Miami (OH) @ Temple +22'

 

Also edited it into my original post. There will be a few 2-unit plays tomorrow I think, just haven't decided which one(s) yet. Will update when I do.

[2JORDAN3 0]

MONEY LINE PLAYS FOR SATURDAY...do you see any of these teams losing straight up?  any info would be appreciated

 

Fla ST      -850

Tex tech  -500

Mich st    -1000

Wisco      -1300

Tenn        -600

My website (betgameday.com) won't let me bet the money line with college games when the spread is more than 13 points.

 

I thought it was the same for everybody, but I guess not. So, what site do you use?

 

And yes, FSU, TEN and Mich St are all gauranteed to win IMO. I've got all of them in 13 point teasers. But I'd much rather bet the money line instead of using teasers.

Gobble, I got a local guy who offers money lines on almost anything. Wisco is the biggest i have seen in a while.

[markblaz 0]

MONEY LINE PLAYS FOR SATURDAY...do you see any of these teams losing straight up?  any info would be appreciated

 

Fla ST       -850

Tex tech   -500

Mich st     -1000

Wisco       -1300

Tenn        -600

My website (betgameday.com) won't let me bet the money line with college games when the spread is more than 13 points.

 

I thought it was the same for everybody, but I guess not. So, what site do you use?

 

And yes, FSU, TEN and Mich St are all gauranteed to win IMO. I've got all of them in 13 point teasers. But I'd much rather bet the money line instead of using teasers.

Gobble, I got a local guy who offers money lines on almost anything. Wisco is the biggest i have seen in a while.

thats a good point on the wisconsin money line. when i see a money line for a team giving that many points, i think its a little fishy. i remember a couple years ago when the rams won the super bowl. every week the line was very high, and there was never a money line. then one week (i cant remember who they were playing), the line was high again, but there was a money line. sure enough they lost that week, straight up.

my point is, it wouldnt shock me to see illinois win that game, vegas must know something. im not gonna take them on the money line, but i will definately take them with the spread.

[Guest cklennon]

All you guys betting -250 and over moneylines on football are nuts. Suicidal.

[markblaz 0]

All you guys betting -250 and over moneylines on football are nuts. Suicidal.

i agree, i just look at them, to help find the fishy ones. ive never played a money line on a team giving more than 7 points or more.

[PriestAlone 0]

All you guys betting -250 and over moneylines on football are nuts. Suicidal.

Moneylining big favorites can only cause you trouble. Like mortgage trouble.

 

Buddy of mine a few years back got hooked on betting the Yankees every time they lost at home, back when they were always big favorites.

 

Ultimately got his thumbs twisted up.

 

You just have to risk too much to win anything.

[GobbleDog 989]

All you guys betting -250 and over moneylines on football are nuts. Suicidal.

If they offered money-line bets on matchups like Duke at FSU, I'd put my entire account on it.

[Guest cklennon]

Yeah and at -2000, even if you win 9 of 10 you're still ######.

[American Chewy 98]

i saw usc -4000 moneyline this weekend against wash st. lol biggest i've seen. a $5 bet will net you 12.5 cents.

[GobbleDog 989]

Yeah and at -2000, even if you win 9 of 10 you're still ######.

I'd parlay all the 30+ point favorites on the money line if they offered it. Seems like free money to me.

 

I guess that's why they don't offer those kind of lines.

[BattyRidas 0]

PB who do you like for tonight's game? I know you're not on it, but if you were.

[ratsforlunch 0]

I don't EVAH go higher than 200 on a ML and 9 times out of 10 (if I play a ML) it'll be closer to the 125-150 type range. Every single dude out there has their own theory on how best to make the system work for them, but upsets happen a bit too frequently for me to lay that kind of jack for a small payout. Whateva works man.

 

For tonight I locked in NM at -6 for 2 units. Don't see any convincing reasons not to from what I've been reading. GL tonight and this weekend fellas!!!

 

[phillybear 366]

PB who do you like for tonight's game? I know you're not on it, but if you were.

Gun to my head, I would probably take the pts, since it seems so many of these Mountain West conference games have been close games, decided by just a couple of pts. But NM should run at will, and Col St should pass at will. Still, I can't take the over, with two teams that might try to establish the run in the first half and chew clock. Ugly game. It's particularly frustrating, since I have been betting on or against New Mexico in nearly all their games this year, and previous years.

 

Both teams are maddeningly inconsistent, and I don't have a clue. I played the Flyers M/L and under Flyers/Car for .5 units each, which I guess started 10 minutes ago. I am watching DVDs tonight.

 

Good luck to anyone on this game.

[phillybear 366]

Fock it. The alcohol is talking...

 

Colorado St +5.5 for 1 unit. I will update the play in my records tomorrow.

WINNER

[Zap 0]

Some thoughts for those on Stanford tomorrow. I agree UCLA is posing as a top 10 team, but they got there with wins against their worst pre-USC matchups.

 

UCLA is very vulnerable to good running teams. WSU and Cal have two of the best ground games in the country, and they gave UCLA fits. Even Ore St. rushed for over 200 on them last week. That's UCLA's big weakness.

 

Their offense is a big play offense with Olson, Drew, Lewis. It will suffer three and outs, then the big plays start coming. A time of possession chewing running team takes opportunities away from the Bruins. A team like Stanford does not. See last week's 21-0 4th quarter when Stanford stuggled to support a 31 point lead. Stanford cannot run the ball. They've managed about 650 yards on the ground all year. Edwards is a fine QB, and he is on a little roll right now, but UCLA defends the pass much better than the run. They do so with a couple NFL grade LBs blitzing-- London and Havner.

 

Stanford does play decent defense from time to time, better than several Pac 10 schools anyway, but it's hard to imagine their D shutting down Drew or Olson to any respectable degree. So it will be on Edwards to produce against London and Havner. I do not like this matchup for Stanford at all.

 

I'm not real high on UCLA, certainly not as high as their national ranking, but I can easily see them posting 40 on Stanford and the Cardinal struggling to keep it close.

 

The 7 points is a dicey line, and I wouldn't touch this game.

[chiz3 1]

Staying away tonight. This weeks early picks:

 

VT WINNER

Auburn-20 1/2 WINNER

Michigan-3

Boise-21 WINNER

Clemson+3

Navy+ 6 1/2 LOSER

[iceblumist610 0]

I'm an SEC guy (huge Tennessee fan) but here's what I like...

 

USC +14

UT/USC under 43

MSU/UK under 43

Utah State +34.5

 

Also leaning towards Miss St. PK and UGA +5.5. I know UGA's QB is gone, but Florida is not as good as the scores indicate. They were +5 on turnovers against LSU and still lost. They were essentially +2 on turnovers against UT. Alabama was even on turnovers and was a blowout. I don't know about LSU, but in the Tennessee game, the turnovers were entirely unforced. UF's defense isn't causing them, they're gifts. I think that Georgia wins even without their QB.

 

As for the others...you'd have to be insane or from the Not South to pick Tennessee. Both games where I listed unders include horrible offenses (and Tennessee has quite a good D; MSU's isn't too bad). I doubt Alabama will score 35 points against Utah State, let alone win by that much. They don't tend to stomp weaker teams, and their offense has only topped 35 once this year (USC).

[Zap 0]

I would not be surprised if Stanford wins the game as the UCLA bubble bursts. I also wonder is UCLA is already starting to look ahead to their game vs USC.

A final comment on this one, fwiw. This Bruin team is very aware of how fortunate it has been. No way are they looking forward to USC. Regardless of the outcome, UCLA is very very focused on Stanford and Stanford alone. UCLA is not arrogant or over-confident in their achievements so far this season. They are a humble team working very hard on their shortcomings, yet playing to their strengths at a very high level. They'll hit Stanford Stadium high as can be and ready for a war. If Stanford ends the undefeated season, so be it, but it won't be because UCLA was looking ahead, or wasn't prepared. It will be because UCLA just isn't as good as the record suggests.

[American Chewy 98]

Season 10-6 +3.84 units

 

Passing tonight

 

Here's my saturday plays:

Penn St (-15)

Auburn (-20)

Utah St (+34)

Kansas St (+7)

Iowa St (+10)

Wash St (+30)

N. Carolina (+21)

Fresno St (-12.5)

Baylor (+12)

S Carolina (+14)

 

 

lot of road underdogs....and teams with St. in their name....wanted to play maryland (+17) but qb injury scared me.....going to the kstate game, i wanted to play them straight up but i learned my lesson last week after they covered but lost....good luck everyone!

[nos23 1]

here are the games i like this week

 

penn state -14

clemson +3

nebraka +1

syracuse +5

nc state -4

alabama -34 1/2

kansas st +7

texas am -9

buffalo +3 1/2

western mich -3 1/2

east carolina -2 1/2

ohio state -3

rutgurs -6 1/2

canes -19 1/2

stanford +7

kansas +4

missippi st pk

fresno st - 13 1/2

northwestern +4

texas tech -9 1/2

tulane pk

new mexico st -4

 

good luck

[GobbleDog 989]

I'm an SEC guy (huge Tennessee fan) but here's what I like...

 

USC +14

 

As for the others...you'd have to be insane or from the Not South to pick Tennessee.

 

I disagree. I'm an SEC guy too (go gators). If you know the SEC, you should know South Carolina has consistently been every team's b*tch. Especially on the road against big programs like Tennessee. I know Tennessee lost their RB and the offense hasn't been up to expectations lately, but this is South Carolina we're talking about. It's like Duke, with Spurrier.

 

I'm taking Tennesse in all of my 13 point teasers, which means TEN -0.5, but I also believe they should definately win by more than 2 TDs against the lowely Gamec0cks.

[GobbleDog 989]

buffalo +3 1/2

You got guts.

 

I don't know what Buffalo has done lately, or anything about details of this game, but I know a year or two ago Buffalo was generally considered the worst team in Division I college football. I can't shake that. :ph34r:

[GobbleDog 989]

Fock it. The alcohol is talking...

 

Colorado St +5.5 for 1 unit. I will update the play in my records tomorrow.

Philly the Greek Strikes again!

[GobbleDog 989]

Fresno St (-12.5)

I like Fresno St. But wasn't Hawaii pretty good last year? What the hell happened to them? For some reason I'm nervous betting against them, but on paper it looks like Fresno St should roll.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

Since I have sucked all year I am remaining silent.

[GobbleDog 989]

Since I have sucked all year I am remaining silent.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 

This thread isn't complete without a Hurricane Ditka Five Star Pick!!!

 

[brzrboy 0]

Hey Philly, I'm researching the Toledo/C.Michigan game, and I'm curious why you have it as such a strong play on C.Mich? Toledo got thumped by Fresno St. 14-44, but their 6 victories have been by 48, 33, 25, 27, 20, and 23. Almost all of the yardage figures favor Toledo heavily. Are there some injury issues or other info?

 

cdp

[paul18t 0]

Fresno St (-12.5)

I like Fresno St. But wasn't Hawaii pretty good last year? What the hell happened to them? For some reason I'm nervous betting against them, but on paper it looks like Fresno St should roll.

Hawaii can't stop the run. Fresno St. runs very well. Hawaii has special teams problems. Fresno St. takes pride in their special teams. The Hawaii QB Colt Brennan is the real deal though. But this is his first season and his receivers are all either true freshmen or 1st year starters. Even though I am a big Hawaii fan, I have to be realistic, Fresno is gonna roll. Hawaii will be good next year, but this year they are just too young and inexperienced. I'm giving the 13 points and betting the grass shack...

[phillybear 366]

Hey Philly, I'm researching the Toledo/C.Michigan game, and I'm curious why you have it as such a strong play on C.Mich?  Toledo got thumped by Fresno St. 14-44, but their 6 victories have been by 48, 33, 25, 27, 20, and 23.  Almost all of the yardage figures favor Toledo heavily.  Are there some injury issues or other info?

 

cdp

Changing of the guard game. Toledo is not that good on the road, as their 0-4 ATS mark in their last 4 suggests. And Central Mich is improved and underrated, 4-2 ATS, and covered 4 of last 5 as an underdog. C Mich has already won 3 of 4 MAC games this year, and is in contention for their division. I like their balanced offense with Sneed running the ball, and talented Smith throwing and running out of the QB position. C Mich had an extra week to prepare. Central Mich defense is giving up 22 ppg as opposed to 35 ppg last year. Toledo's offense is not as high powered as previous years, and the loss of offensive coordinator Spence (left for Clemson) is being felt. C Mich gave Toledo problems last year, losing by only 27-22. C Mich has played a much tougher schedule. C Mich has been very good to me this year, and I think I can squeeze another game out of them.

[phillybear 366]

Fresno St (-12.5)

I like Fresno St. But wasn't Hawaii pretty good last year? What the hell happened to them? For some reason I'm nervous betting against them, but on paper it looks like Fresno St should roll.

Hawaii can't stop the run. Fresno St. runs very well. Hawaii has special teams problems. Fresno St. takes pride in their special teams. The Hawaii QB Colt Brennan is the real deal though. But this is his first season and his receivers are all either true freshmen or 1st year starters. Even though I am a big Hawaii fan, I have to be realistic, Fresno is gonna roll. Hawaii will be good next year, but this year they are just too young and inexperienced. I'm giving the 13 points and betting the grass shack...

Revenge is the theme for this game. Hawaii went into Fresno last year with tons of defensive injuries, and got hammered 70-14. In a similar spot earlier this year, where Hawaii has playing with huge revenge at home to Boise St, Hawaii lost by 3 but should have won the game as they dominated it stat wise and game wise. Fresno is a good team, and their excellent special teams are keeping me from making this a huge Hawaii play, but I can not see Fresno St's pass defense stopping Hawaii, and I think Hawaii's new, improved defense, coached by Jerry Glanville, can slow down Fresno' running game. Hawaii is the motivated home dog with a huge home field advantage.

[phillybear 366]

I would not be surprised if Stanford wins the game as the UCLA bubble bursts. I also wonder is UCLA is already starting to look ahead to their game vs USC.

A final comment on this one, fwiw. This Bruin team is very aware of how fortunate it has been. No way are they looking forward to USC. Regardless of the outcome, UCLA is very very focused on Stanford and Stanford alone. UCLA is not arrogant or over-confident in their achievements so far this season. They are a humble team working very hard on their shortcomings, yet playing to their strengths at a very high level. They'll hit Stanford Stadium high as can be and ready for a war. If Stanford ends the undefeated season, so be it, but it won't be because UCLA was looking ahead, or wasn't prepared. It will be because UCLA just isn't as good as the record suggests.

Thanks for the insights Zap. I still do think Stanford is a live home dog.

[phillybear 366]

Updated for Saturday morning, lopsided action...

 

Penn St 74% over Purdue

Michigan St 74% over Indiana

Wisconsin 87% over Illinois

Clemson 70% over Georgia Tech

Wake Forest 83% over Duke

Ohio U 75% over Buffalo

Western Michigan 89% over Kent

BYU 82% over Air Force

UTEP 88% over Rice

Ohio St 73% over Minnesota

Bowling Green 77% over Akron

UCLA 75% over Stanford

TCU 89% over San Diego St

Northwestern 73% over Michigan

Tex Tech 88% over Baylor

Oregon St 90% over Arizona

UL Lafayette 77% over Troy St

[ratsforlunch 0]

Mornin folks....well, after winning about 5 units the last 2 games of the WS I successfully gave damn near every penny right back with BC and then NM last night.

 

Relatively busy day today by my standards all for one unit:

 

PSU -15 don't see a letdown here against the horrendous Purdue secondary, JoePa has these kids believing and they'll be ready to put on a show for the home crowd.

 

Colorado -7 they've treated me pretty well all season (except for the Miami game), although they are on the radar for folks now I still think a fair amount of value here.

 

Central Michigan +7 In addition to the previously stated reasons....the CMU defense has allowed just two touchdowns in the past 10 quarters and has not allowed a touchdown in the second half of the past four games, not too shabby.

 

Ohio -5/UTEP -20 2P Line value in both games here IMO

 

Navy +7 Impressive ATS on the road and looking at schedule still overall an underrated team

 

Stanford +7 What PB said...UCLA needs to prove itself and I'm not convinced they'll do it here....like the homedog

 

Michigan -2.5/TTU -13 2P I officially flip flopped on this Michigan game, in short, MI defense wins this one over a very porous NW secondary. TTU-line value, until last week they've been blowing teams out consistently, think they come out pretty pissed off after being embarassed last week.

 

22-19 on the year NCAA

 

here's hoping we can bump that up a bit today....

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

Gents:

 

Two MAC plays stand out this week-- Ohio and C Mich. CMich pick has been discussed.

 

Ohio is a pretty play mainly because their strength is running the ball and Buffalo D has been able to stop the pass, but not the run.

The Bobcats had some big plays LW vs Ball State (80 yrd. reverse TD, several long TDs by McRae, koff return) and I think they spring their share on Buffalo today.

 

Buffalo has covered last 4 games this season and Ohio has had problems on the road at Buffalo before.

But we're only talking -3.5 or -4.

 

I see Ohio U 24-6 or so.

 

I saw Oregon State and Washington State play this year in Oregon. Wash St. should have won that game and have an offense that is explosive.

Too many points today. Wash St +30

 

UTEP, Purdue, NW, Mich St and Oregon State are leans. And Stanford.