Draft Stategy for '06

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 40]

I have always gone RB heavy in the early rounds, especially 1-2. But this year I am thinking it may be different. With the huge drop-off from the top 3, questions surrounding James, Lewis and other second tier guys caused me to think about changing my stategy.

 

With the wealth of potential top flight WR's, I am thinking of going WR heavy much earlier than the past.

 

Am guessing that guys like S Jackson, L Jordan and C Taylor could be around in RD's 3-5. Especially if I start a run on WR's and take guys like Moss, TO and Holt off early (not thinking I would get all of them but, 2 of 3 could be had at the turn and someone else would get the third).

 

Your thoughts?

[football_scooter 0]

RB-RB-WR-RB-TE-WR-QB-WR-RB

 

That's my tentative plan.

 

but if someone slips, it could all change.

 

lol

 

 

seriously though - Might either 1. sleep just a little less on a QB - I generally do the freefall, and only a handful of bonnified fantasy stud QBs this year. Injuries to Palmer, McNafro and Cpep will have guys scrambling - if Favre retires, even moreso. I might have to go RB-RB-WR-QB-X-X-X-X if the right guy is available.

 

Then again, with MeShawn in CAR and Owens in DAL, Delhomme and Bledsoe rise a bit...

 

Hard to tell. I would still likely take RBs with my 1st 2 picks regardless. Unless I can get Manning in the late 2nd...

[Ilov80s 0]

I have always gone RB heavy in the early rounds, especially 1-2. But this year I am thinking it may be different. With the huge drop-off from the top 3, questions surrounding James, Lewis and other second tier guys caused me to think about changing my stategy.

 

With the wealth of potential top flight WR's, I am thinking of going WR heavy much earlier than the past.

 

Am guessing that guys like S Jackson, L Jordan and C Taylor could be around in RD's 3-5. Especially if I start a run on WR's and take guys like Moss, TO and Holt off early (not thinking I would get all of them but, 2 of 3 could be had at the turn and someone else would get the third).

 

Your thoughts?

 

 

I don't think its a bad strategy. If you can force the a WR run, then by being at the head of that curve, you could set yourself up pretty well. I still don't see SJax or Jordan slipping into round 3.

[hipcheck 0]

12 Team REDRAFT

 

RB

RB

WR

RB

WR

TE

QB

K

D

WR

WR

RB

RB

RB

[BumForHire 0]

12 Team REDRAFT

 

RB

RB

WR

RB

WR

TE

QB

K

D

WR

WR

RB

RB

RB

 

 

I like this look, but I think youre reaching too soon for Kicker and D. Let them slide...you can likely pick up super sleepers like Jay Feely or Seattle or Cinci's D (as examples this past year) off the waiver wire at any time. Id follow that QB pick up with another QB pick(if you need 2).

 

Im of the thinking that with the big 3 looking to be so far out in front of the others, the best way to hang with those owners is thru RB depth. So get those top 2 stud RBs that have the most reliable history of productivity under your belt. With any luck big 3 owners wont get much help from their #2 RB spot if the rest of the teams are taking RB early as well. I dont see anything wrong with thinking of WR heavy early either, but you know from year to year WRs can be flaky. outside of Holt and Harrison you just cant be sure of what youre gonna get. Smith and Santan Moss have not given back to back years of note and both are small and susceptible to injuries. Owens is with a new club that believes in running the ball into the ground. Chad Johnson has a QB coming off an ACL tear and who knows what he'll be good for. Randy Moss? God only knows there. Fitzgerald and Boldin should be good again, but you never know. Imo, Id just rather risk, say, a 6th overall pick on Tiki Barber or Edge James than I would on Steve Smith or Randy Moss. RBs just always have a more reliable track record of productivity....if you choose the right guys. The owners that picked up Steve Smith and Santana Moss and Joe Galloway and Larry Fitzgerald got value because they got all of those players likely no earlier than the 4th or 5th round......AFTER they had stacked themselves up at RB.

[hipcheck 0]

I like this look, but I think youre reaching too soon for Kicker and D. Let them slide...you can likely pick up super sleepers like Jay Feely or Seattle or Cinci's D (as examples this past year) off the waiver wire at any time. Id follow that QB pick up with another QB pick(if you need 2).

 

Im of the thinking that with the big 3 looking to be so far out in front of the others, the best way to hang with those owners is thru RB depth. So get those top 2 stud RBs that have the most reliable history of productivity under your belt. With any luck big 3 owners wont get much help from their #2 RB spot if the rest of the teams are taking RB early as well. I dont see anything wrong with thinking of WR heavy early either, but you know from year to year WRs can be flaky. outside of Holt and Harrison you just cant be sure of what youre gonna get. Smith and Santan Moss have not given back to back years of note and both are small and susceptible to injuries. Owens is with a new club that believes in running the ball into the ground. Chad Johnson has a QB coming off an ACL tear and who knows what he'll be good for. Randy Moss? God only knows there. Fitzgerald and Boldin should be good again, but you never know. Imo, Id just rather risk, say, a 6th overall pick on Tiki Barber or Edge James than I would on Steve Smith or Randy Moss. RBs just always have a more reliable track record of productivity....if you choose the right guys. The owners that picked up Steve Smith and Santana Moss and Joe Galloway and Larry Fitzgerald got value because they got all of those players likely no earlier than the 4th or 5th round......AFTER they had stacked themselves up at RB.

 

 

Very well thought out strategy. Agree with everything...

[joefry 0]

That is a risky way to go. Many a person has been burned by that strategy, including myself, in the past. Even if you nab Harrison/Holt that is a risk. Holt was injured for my team for a big stretch last year, and plus as previously noted, there are stud wrs that come out of the woodwork every year.

 

Who's not to say that the top wrs next year are Lee Evans, Chris Chambers, Lavernious Coles, Chad Johnson, and Braylon Edwards? Of course I am exagerating, but it is certainly possible that that could happen.

 

Plus think about this; when your rbs go down for the season, what do you ussually have to pick from? That's right, a pile of sh*t. When a wr goes down for the season, there is ussually a good backup sitting on your bench, and if its not the end of the season, plenty to pick from on the waiver wire.

 

For my league, we started keep one player this year, but you can only keep a player you picked at the 3rd round or lower. My keeper is LJ. He will be my fifth round pick. Obviously some guys are going to get to keep guys like SSmith, and Ruben Droghns, but I am at a serious advantage at this point. I can tell you right now, I am going rb/wr/rb or rb/rb/wr regardless of my good fortune. FF is a cruel game, that is a fact, the other given is that you can never have enough rbs.

[Phurfur 70]

12 Team REDRAFT

 

RB

RB

WR

RB

WR

TE

QB

K

D

WR

WR

RB

RB

RB

 

 

If you stick to this formula at the draft you will not draft your best team. The only way to draft is a Value Based Draft. You can go into the draft with a general guide line of positions to draft but you must be flexable and take the player that gives you the best value. Now VBD is a lot of work requiring that you project the stats of each player but in the end you wind up with your best team.

[chiz3 1]

Ive always gone rb rb wr. But after a dismal year from "top" rb's in 04(A.Green single handedly killed my draft) I decided to go wr heavy in 05. I went Moss,DDavis then Javon and even went early with a qb(rd.5 Trent Green) which I never do. As you can see I had a "real good year" YEAH RIGHT. I guess what Im saying dont change your draft strategy if youve been successful with your old one. After last year, I think I will resort back to my rb early ways. The wr's have been way too streaky for the last few years. Moss(inj. team change),TO(as$hole),Muhammed,Ward,CJ. It would be tough to take any of these top flight wr's in the first or early second right now. Steve Smith is the only wr that has had 2 consecutive ,PLAYED, good seasons!

[toofunny 0]

I have always gone RB heavy in the early rounds, especially 1-2. But this year I am thinking it may be different. With the huge drop-off from the top 3, questions surrounding James, Lewis and other second tier guys caused me to think about changing my stategy.

 

With the wealth of potential top flight WR's, I am thinking of going WR heavy much earlier than the past.

 

Am guessing that guys like S Jackson, L Jordan and C Taylor could be around in RD's 3-5. Especially if I start a run on WR's and take guys like Moss, TO and Holt off early (not thinking I would get all of them but, 2 of 3 could be had at the turn and someone else would get the third).

 

Your thoughts?

 

Err, not sure what league you play in. S-JAX and Jordan will be top 15 picks, without question. Taylor yes. Lewis yes.

 

I've seen lots of people get 1 stud RB, then go WR WR and do very well. If you can get a top RB 1st round, then get Holt/Moss/TO in some form in the 2nd/3rd round then you're going to be set.

 

But most of these draft strategies are useless. It all depends on who gets taken in front of you. If you pick 12th in a 12 man league, and top 11 go all RBs, there's probably not 2 RBs I'd take at that point. I'd probably take the best RB then one of Holt/Moss/Smith/TO. You can't go reaching for guys because you have a strategy in place. The *DRAFT* will dictact your strategy. Look for value. If no one else takes a WR in the first 3 rounds, then in pick 2 and 3 you should be taking WR. If P Manning is there in the 4th round, you should probably take him.

 

Basically just adapt to how the draft is unfolding. I never like hard and fast rules on who to pick when.

[Shakespeare 0]

My Draft Strategy: 12 Team Redraft

 

TIERS

TIERS

TIERS

TIERS

TIERS

TIERS

TIERS

TIERS

TIERS

TIERS

TIERS

TIERS

QB

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 40]

You guys are right. I will stick with RB's early. It's always worked. I never miss the playoffs, except last when injuries decimated my WR's. FF can make one over-think easily.

 

Last year I traded Caddy for CJ. Yeah, the guy had NO RB's due to injuries and goofs like J Lewis. It's way easier to upgrade your WR corps if you have quality RB's to trade than vice versa.

 

Thanks folks.

[waterwolves 0]

Last year I got S. Smith in the 5th round!!!!!!! It was after I had piled up the RB's, Getting my third RB, Dunn, in the 4th round!!!!!!!

 

RB

RB

then it depends from there

[murf74 461]

I don't follow any strategy, I just pick best available in most cases. Not to the extreme of picking 2 QBs in the first 2 rounds, but you get the picture.

 

I am not going to pass up on a stud at any position in order to pick up a RB just to say I went RB/RB. For instance, I am not going to pass up on Steve Smith or Peyton Manning to get a McGahee just cause RBs are going off the board quick.

[ratbastard1 0]

I don't follow any strategy, I just pick best available in most cases. Not to the extreme of picking 2 QBs in the first 2 rounds, but you get the picture.

 

I am not going to pass up on a stud at any position in order to pick up a RB just to say I went RB/RB. For instance, I am not going to pass up on Steve Smith or Peyton Manning to get a McGahee just cause RBs are going off the board quick.

 

 

Id take McGehee over Smith still.

 

I dont follow a guideline strategy. I favor RBs and most likely go that route when all is even, but I trully draft based on tiers.

[murf74 461]

Id take McGehee over Smith still.

 

Ewww, good luck with that

[LunaTick 30]

Best strategy is not to get to stuck on a formula for your draft.

You may pass up better overall value for the sake of drafting by position.

 

Ask yourself why in the first 4 rounds do you need 3rbs. Answer, is cause you are concerned you second pick may not meet expectations. Followed up by Bye week. And last as insurance to injury. However in your mind should be the alter ego asking the question of will taking another at this position, which will likely sit on a bench, do me more harm than picking a starter at another position. This does then come down to value.

 

Moral I am preaching here is Don't reach for the sake of the formula.

Allow yourself flexibility.

 

Best thing you can do for your draft is to mock it out asking yourself who may be there and what may be available.

Then change up the formula and see how this may change things.

Course this works only in leagues with stability and knowledge of other team (hoping they stay true to their tendancies)

 

Last is to know what positions will drive you nuts if they are weak. (for me I cannot stand having an average QB, I want a starter. would rather have a ffrbbc than a ffrqbbc)

 

hth

 

btw, I have gone 2 wr early. I don't recommend going into a draft wanting to do this. I would not avoid it. But it does mean having ave rb and lots of them, in order to eek out wins from week to week. This due to the tendancy of binge purge scoring of wrs. remember they are a dime a dozen.

[ellisonb11 0]

yea im thinking this year im gonna go for a QB earlier in the draft because i struggled all last year with a mediocre QB. ill stick with the RB RB choice in rounds 1 and 2 though....

[Phurfur 70]

Last year I got S. Smith in the 5th round!!!!!!! It was after I had piled up the RB's, Getting my third RB, Dunn, in the 4th round!!!!!!!

 

RB

RB

then it depends from there

 

It depends who you play with. I play in 4 leagues (3 -12 team, 1 - 14 team) the latest Steve Smith went was the 2nd pick of the fourth round. Dunn never made it out of the third. You wouldn't be playing that game with us.

[pollardposse 0]

I've seen it go both ways. In one of my leagues an owner took Owens at the end of round one and Moss with the first pick in round 2. He didn't make the playoffs......

 

In another league, I watched (and laughed) as an owner went RB, RB, WR with his first 3 picks. He took Alexander with the third pick in round one (holmes and LT went 1 and 2), Harrison in the second round and Johnson in the third. I don't recall the rest of his draft in order, but he ended up with Galloway and Steve Smith. Smith lasted in our league until 5th round. Everyone was leary of taking a WR coming off a broken leg...... Anyway, the guy won the title. The rest of his team was average, but when your first 3 picks are studs, you are probably going to the playoffs...

[jdon 28]

"Am guessing that guys like S Jackson, L Jordan and C Taylor could be around in RD's 3-5. "

I like that quote...

 

but seriously the problem here is picking the 'right' reciever. I think it is fairly easy to assess a running backs value, however wide outs have so much variance each year, especially after the top five.

Now, taking CJ and Fitzgerald on the turn, that could be a great move. But if you think taking Santana moss and some other bum is a good idea I think you are in a world of trouble...

 

Side Note: I think there are a number of good quarterbacks for next year (at least six who could lead the league).

 

jdon

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 40]

"Am guessing that guys like S Jackson, L Jordan and C Taylor could be around in RD's 3-5. "

I like that quote...

 

but seriously the problem here is picking the 'right' reciever. I think it is fairly easy to assess a running backs value, however wide outs have so much variance each year, especially after the top five.

Now, taking CJ and Fitzgerald on the turn, that could be a great move. But if you think taking Santana moss and some other bum is a good idea I think you are in a world of trouble...

 

Side Note: I think there are a number of good quarterbacks for next year (at least six who could lead the league).

 

jdon

 

I have backed off the theory but the premise was that one could likely get guys like TO, Holt and Moss at the turn in RD 1. We all know what happened to them last year. It's a new year. My point was that every draft has runs. If you take top WR's off the board early that it could start a run on them. Thus, with the uncertainty after the big 3 RB's and the wealth of WR's, it could start a run on WR's which could result that there may be RB's I mentioned still available at the end of the 3rd. And, one gets 2 picks again.

 

But, as I have said, I will likely not do it as RB has much more upside for 2-3 TD games and 100+ rushing yd games than WR's.

 

Last, my thinking was that there are a ton of RB's who are a crap shoot for next year.

[waterwolves 0]

Yeah My Draft just changed today. I am taking Reggie Bush with my first pick!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Keeper league of course

[remote controller 143]

I have always gone RB heavy in the early rounds, especially 1-2. But this year I am thinking it may be different. With the huge drop-off from the top 3, questions surrounding James, Lewis and other second tier guys caused me to think about changing my stategy.

 

With the wealth of potential top flight WR's, I am thinking of going WR heavy much earlier than the past.

 

Am guessing that guys like S Jackson, L Jordan and C Taylor could be around in RD's 3-5. Especially if I start a run on WR's and take guys like Moss, TO and Holt off early (not thinking I would get all of them but, 2 of 3 could be had at the turn and someone else would get the third).

 

Your thoughts?

Taylor might make it to 3-5, but no way will Jackson or Jordan fall out of the top 12, unless they fall right on the corner at 11-14. What has happened this season only strengthens the reasons for drafting backs early. There is inly one sure 1st round Qb this season, where as the past few years both Manning and Culpepper were 1st rounders. Had not Palmer gotten hurt, many would have stuck him in Culpeppers spot this season. The ppast few years many jumped on Moss and TO in round one..........that will not happen this year, with Steve Smith, likely being the first Wr taken, and the first round is too early for me, for him. On my board he is an early 2nd round corner guy.

 

In my estimation, the first round will consist of 10 backs, 1 Qb, and 1 Wr.

 

Your premise of taking Wr's early, really isn't necessary due to the depth at the position, and quality Qb's will slide farther than ever. Every year VBDrafters jump ship and join the Rb drafting frenzy. "Stud RB theory"......Catch It!!!

[U Dub 0]

i still think i'm gonna stock up on RB's early. but i'll just have to wait and see who's available when my picks come up.

[kmswim03 0]

You can't single-handedly start a run on WR. I almost always go WR-WR if I am at the end of the first round because that is normally the best value, but it has never started a run on wide outs. People are too set in their ways of selecting RBs early that if you are going to take receivers early, you will have to be okay with starting Warrick Dunn and Kevin Jones in your backfield for your 3rd and 4th round picks.

[MudDawgs4Life 6]

"Am guessing that guys like S Jackson, L Jordan and C Taylor could be around in RD's 3-5. "

I like that quote...

 

but seriously the problem here is picking the 'right' reciever. I think it is fairly easy to assess a running backs value, however wide outs have so much variance each year, especially after the top five.

Now, taking CJ and Fitzgerald on the turn, that could be a great move. But if you think taking Santana moss and some other bum is a good idea I think you are in a world of trouble...

 

Side Note: I think there are a number of good quarterbacks for next year (at least six who could lead the league).

 

jdon

 

jdon, i couldn't have said it better myself. it's about being able to put a value on something. Last year, smith was a fourth round pick in my league, galloway was an 8th round, and santana was a 9th round. All of them will be drafted earlier this year, hence owners got great value. But on draft day, you have no idea that santana moss is going to be the bounce back reciever and that it's not going to be peerless price or somebody else like that (peerless sucks, but you know what i'm saying). you've gotta hit your marks in the middle rounds. instead of taking stever smith in last year's draft at pick #35, I took Nate Burleson. Just as hyped going into the season (and not coming off a broken leg), it was a picked i felt good about on draft day. well, we all know how that one panned out. i was a playoff contender all year and smith easily could have brought me to a championship. you've gotta hit your marks. unfortunately, it's much harder to find gold late in RBs than it is in WRs. most running backs you'd get in the 8th or 9th round are at best splitting carries and not starting week 1. that's why you take RBs early.

 

I do think this year that in the second round, it's going to be real hard to take guys like julius jones, rueben droughns, and chester taylor over sick WRs like T.O., Moss, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson. So I'm expecting a slightly earlier run on WRs than normal. But that's only after pick #11, i'm pretty confident in my draft the first 11 picks will be RBs.

 

On a side note, one thing i always consider when taking back in the first 2 rounds is when you have to draft his backup. For example, last year, if you took Priest, you knew you had to waste a 5th round pick on LJ. If you took Clinton Portis, you know that Rock Cartwright will be waiting for you in Rd. 14. This can have a huge effect on your draft, but injuries kill in fantasy and not having your RB's backup could be very devastating. I think this is a huge factor that separates the 1st round backs from the 2nd round backs.

[miket7 0]

I'm going kicker in the first three rounds.

 

The rest of the draft is nothing more than filler for my championship team.

[darwin 0]

I keep wanting to get sucked in to this thread about draft strategies, because it's so fun to think about who you'd want in those first 3 rounds.

But then I remember, none of this means anything until preseason.

My strategy is based on the tiers, which won't even start to become clear until after the NFL draft, or even preseason.

The only tier certain right now is the top 3 picks/RBs.

 

So I guess my strategy is to hope I get one of those picks.