SoloMatisse 0 Posted May 25, 2006 I was going to take Dillon with the 3rd rounder too, so if he falls past this one guy who needs a RB, I will be thrilled. I think I can pick up Maroney in the 6th to go with him easily. But what do you think of Palmer with 4.10.....again, I do not have a 5th rounder, and I can always get another decent QB with upside (Bledsoe, Brooks, Delhomme etc) to cover myself. Thoughts on Palmer? Dont do it, 34. Think value here. Palmer may start out very slow....and not sure exactly which week. Hold out and go value at QB....he wont be top 3 like last year. Right, theres only been one QB taken so far, Manning, so youll have a shot at Hass(giving you the combo) or Eli or Brady or McNabb or others who'll be solid. You could probably get Warner in the 14th and handcuff him with Leinart if youre feeling that offense there with Edge in town. Value is to be had in this draft right now at QB, even though you can see a run about to develop soon. be ready for it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ratbastard1 0 Posted May 25, 2006 Now the Rbs all look the same they are all ? marks. DJax? Over Ward? I know PPR is huge sometimes but dont TDs count too? You should have listened to me and gone RB, RB. Now you have to avoid injury with these two picks. Im guessing by the time you pick, 2 of these tandems are broken up. You gotta try and clinch one. I say Addai/Rhodes is the one you end up with because Rhodes isnt that popular. If you pick Foster someone between you might take williams and the same with the Pats. The Bears might be yours too. Take one of the other 2 if your tandem is broken between your picks. Corey Dillon-Laurence Maroney Thomas Jones-Cedric Benson Deshaun Foster-DeAngelo Williams Joseph Addai-Dominick Rhodes Deuce McAllister Tatum Bell Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted May 25, 2006 So, as you can see I do not see more than 1 more RB going off the board before my pick. RBs left are: Corey Dillon Thomas Jones Tatum Bell Deshaun Foster Ahman Green Joseph Addai Curtis Martin Dominick Rhodes DeAngelo Williams Give me your top 3 in order folks....let's hear it. I am sure it will be like the previous pick....everyone with a different choice (which is why I did not take the RB previously ) and this is why i think your pick of a WR in the 3rd played exactly into your hands. still a lot of choices left here, and they arent really too much less risky than the "much better" choices last time around. meanwhile you got a veteran proven WR who is a lot safter than someone like roy williams that just went. take a look at the WRs taken from the late 3rd through the 5th in most drafts last year. in no particular order: lav coles, derrick mason, hines ward, andre johnson, reggie wayne, drew bennett, jerry porter, ashley lelie, roy williams, nate burleson, steve smith, joe horn, michael clayton, darrell jackson, larry fitzgerald, anquan boldin. of that group of 16 (forgive me if im forgetting people) i see two superstars (smith, fitz), three very good receivers (wayne, boldin, ward) and then ELEVEN of the 16 who were decent or much, much worse. thats about a 70% failure rate. bottom line, WRs in this area get hyped and have big potential but rarely succeed. theres a reason why a handful of the WRs were taken slightly earlier than that whole group -- moss, owens, harrison, cj, holt, and in many cases ward and wayne -- and its because they are safer picks. anyway, i rest my case there. the RBs i left in the quote are the only ones i'd be considering here. i actually like deangelo the most, but hes a 2nd half RB and can be had later, so i wont rank him this high. the indy combo is intriguing but you dont want to take both of them here, and it might be hard to get either once you pick again in the 6th. im ruling them out too. that leaves six. in order: 1. Curtis Martin - whats with all the martin haters? in 9 seasons, hes had over 1000 yards all but once and has averaged 10 TDs and almost 50 receptions a season. rarely does he have a huge season, but hes a consistent bet for 11-1200 yards and 7-9 TDs with about 40 receptions. last year he was hurt and missed four games and played hurt in many more, plus had an awful QB and an awful, awful line. this offseason theyve added two superstars on the line in dbrickshaw and mangold, and they have upgraded qb. and theres still no one to steal carries. hes easily the safest, easiest pick left. 2. Tatum Bell - im not a fan of the denver situation, but the upside for bell is obviously highest of everyone left by far. youre going to have to take dayne, as sad as that is, and probably cobbs too. and youre going to have to be ready for some weeks when he has 150 yards and 2 TDs, and others where he has 40 yards and a fumble. however, last year he only got 173 carries which is about the least youd expect from someone splitting time and he still had 8 TDs and almost 1000 yards. also, dayne is not the receiver that anderson was, so bell may pick up the slack there too. barring injury, worst case scenario should be a repeat of last years numbers, about 1000/8 and 20 catches. the upside for more like 1400/12 and 40 is VERY easy to see though. in a situation where you can take a gamble RB and a steadier one, you cant simply ignore him. 3. Corey Dillon - a risky #2, but an amazing #3 if you could pull it off. he WAS very consistent, but has now dealt with injuries the last three years in a row. another big knock on him is that he really lacks receptions, only about 1 a game with the patriots. however, hes also scored 12 TDs a season for the pats. the pats are still a good team and will still run the ball. and if dillon is healthy enough, theres no reason to think he shouldnt get the largest bulk of the carries. should have a good shot at 1000 yards and double digit TDs. its the TDs that save him here. 4. Thomas Jones - all the talk about benson is nice, but it happened last year too, and jones' play kept him riding the pine. it makes him a bit risky, but he has very good upside in this group. those are easily the top 4 imo. ive never liked foster. he has a stud waiting behind him, hes always hurt, and hes just not a pick i like. he'll get you catches but very rare TDs, especially when they can use deangelo who has a nose for the endzone. ahman's days of being a stud are probably over. that line is in pretty rough shape, and the pack have gotten used to using a variety of RBs. however, he does get a ton of catches (almost 4 a game last year) in an offense that runs tons of screens, so that helps him. hes my #5 im sure, if i had to pick one. === i dont like the idea of palmer at 4.10. i think hes got high upside but is a very risky pick this early. if you take him here, youre basically putting the hopes of your team on that acl recovery. it he turns out to be even average, or hurt again, you are leaving yourself probably having to take RB in the 6th and 7th to give you some depth and then WRs and TEs after that... so youre leaving yourself weaker on every other position by taking a QB high. if he hits last years numbers, youre golden, but its very early to risk that. as for taking a pair of RBs here, im very much against trying to take a pair of guys from the same team here. the idea, i think, is to dip your hand in the river twice and get likely starters for two different teams. then hope one of them turns gold, or at least play the matchups. any RBs where youd have to use both pciks now imo just isnt worth it. then its basically two picks on one pretty risky player. 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Sweetness_34 0 Posted May 25, 2006 and this is why i think your pick of a WR in the 3rd played exactly into your hands. still a lot of choices left here, and they arent really too much less risky than the "much better" choices last time around. meanwhile you got a veteran proven WR who is a lot safter than someone like roy williams that just went. take a look at the WRs taken from the late 3rd through the 5th in most drafts last year. in no particular order: lav coles, derrick mason, hines ward, andre johnson, reggie wayne, drew bennett, jerry porter, ashley lelie, roy williams, nate burleson, steve smith, joe horn, michael clayton, darrell jackson, larry fitzgerald, anquan boldin. of that group of 16 (forgive me if im forgetting people) i see two superstars (smith, fitz), three very good receivers (wayne, boldin, ward) and then ELEVEN of the 16 who were decent or much, much worse. thats about a 70% failure rate. bottom line, WRs in this area get hyped and have big potential but rarely succeed. theres a reason why a handful of the WRs were taken slightly earlier than that whole group -- moss, owens, harrison, cj, holt, and in many cases ward and wayne -- and its because they are safer picks. anyway, i rest my case there. the RBs i left in the quote are the only ones i'd be considering here. i actually like deangelo the most, but hes a 2nd half RB and can be had later, so i wont rank him this high. the indy combo is intriguing but you dont want to take both of them here, and it might be hard to get either once you pick again in the 6th. im ruling them out too. that leaves six. in order: 1. Curtis Martin - whats with all the martin haters? in 9 seasons, hes had over 1000 yards all but once and has averaged 10 TDs and almost 50 receptions a season. rarely does he have a huge season, but hes a consistent bet for 11-1200 yards and 7-9 TDs with about 40 receptions. last year he was hurt and missed four games and played hurt in many more, plus had an awful QB and an awful, awful line. this offseason theyve added two superstars on the line in dbrickshaw and mangold, and they have upgraded qb. and theres still no one to steal carries. hes easily the safest, easiest pick left. 4. Tatum Bell - im not a fan of the denver situation, but the upside for bell is obviously highest of everyone left by far. youre going to have to take dayne, as sad as that is, and probably cobbs too. and youre going to have to be ready for some weeks when he has 150 yards and 2 TDs, and others where he has 40 yards and a fumble. however, last year he only got 173 carries which is about the least youd expect from someone splitting time and he still had 8 TDs and almost 1000 yards. also, dayne is not the receiver that anderson was, so bell may pick up the slack there too. barring injury, worst case scenario should be a repeat of last years numbers, about 1000/8 and 20 catches. the upside for more like 1400/12 and 40 is VERY easy to see though. in a situation where you can take a gamble RB and a steadier one, you cant simply ignore him. 3. Corey Dillon - a risky #2, but an amazing #3 if you could pull it off. he WAS very consistent, but has now dealt with injuries the last three years in a row. another big knock on him is that he really lacks receptions, only about 1 a game with the patriots. however, hes also scored 12 TDs a season for the pats. the pats are still a good team and will still run the ball. and if dillon is healthy enough, theres no reason to think he shouldnt get the largest bulk of the carries. should have a good shot at 1000 yards and double digit TDs. its the TDs that save him here. 4. Thomas Jones - all the talk about benson is nice, but it happened last year too, and jones' play kept him riding the pine. it makes him a bit risky, but he has very good upside in this group. those are easily the top 4 imo. ive never liked foster. he has a stud waiting behind him, hes always hurt, and hes just not a pick i like. he'll get you catches but very rare TDs, especially when they can use deangelo who has a nose for the endzone. ahman's days of being a stud are probably over. that line is in pretty rough shape, and the pack have gotten used to using a variety of RBs. however, he does get a ton of catches (almost 4 a game last year) in an offense that runs tons of screens, so that helps him. hes my #5 im sure, if i had to pick one. i dont like the idea of palmer at 4.10. i think hes got high upside but is a very risky pick this early. if you take him here, youre basically putting the hopes of your team on that acl recovery. it he turns out to be even average, or hurt again, you are leaving yourself probably having to take RB in the 6th and 7th to give you some depth and then WRs and TEs after that... so youre leaving yourself weaker on every other position by taking a QB high. if he hits last years numbers, youre golden, but its very early to risk that. as for taking a pair of RBs here, im very much against trying to take a pair of guys from the same team here. the idea, i think, is to dip your hand in the river twice and get likely starters for two different teams. then hope one of them turns gold, or at least play the matchups. any RBs where youd have to use both pciks now imo just isnt worth it. then its basically two picks on one pretty risky player. Thanks Da Bomb. I see Curtis Martin doing as well as a Chester Taylor or a Warrick Dunn or a Reuben Droughns or Willie Parker easily (he is a lock for 1000 yards and the guy catches the ball too consistently in an offense predicated on short throws etc), and still people felt I should have picked one of those one round earlier instead of the solid WR2.....oh well. Now, what do you think of the 4.10 pick I have coming up...... I could go very solid WR here too (Santana Moss, Javon Walker (though I worry about this guy coming back from ACL), Plaxico Burress, Donald Driver (who I really like in a PPR in Green Bay with Favre back and no Walker). Note: 3 WRs starting reqd (2 RBs) Or I can go QB (what do you think about Palmer here.....I can always get another Qb late to cover myself). The aim is to win in the playoffs and Palmer will start in a month's time if not earlier....and I could use the other QB in the meanwhile..... Or I can go TE (Tony Gonzalez, Shockey, Heap etc) but I think I can wait for the TE for later (Heath Miller, etc come to mind) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
einstein2u 0 Posted May 25, 2006 Thanks Da Bomb. I see Curtis Martin doing as well as a Chester Taylor or a Warrick Dunn or a Reuben Droughns or Willie Parker easily (he is a lock for 1000 yards and the guy catches the ball too consistently in an offense predicated on short throws etc), and still people felt I should have picked one of those one round earlier instead of the solid WR2.....oh well. Now, what do you think of the 4.10 pick I have coming up...... I could go very solid WR here too (Santana Moss, Javon Walker (though I worry about this guy coming back from ACL), Plaxico Burress, Donald Driver (who I really like in a PPR in Green Bay with Favre back and no Walker). Note: 3 WRs starting reqd (2 RBs) Or I can go QB (what do you think about Palmer here.....I can always get another Qb late to cover myself). The aim is to win in the playoffs and Palmer will start in a month's time if not earlier....and I could use the other QB in the meanwhile..... Or I can go TE (Tony Gonzalez, Shockey, Heap etc) but I think I can wait for the TE for later (Heath Miller, etc come to mind) dillion is the pick...imo...he still was some trend on those tires. not palmer...you can get a qb later. te...is deep....you need a RB here Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
football_scooter 0 Posted May 25, 2006 and this is why i think your pick of a WR in the 3rd played exactly into your hands. still a lot of choices left here, and they arent really too much less risky than the "much better" choices last time around. This is perhaps the most inaccurate statement ever to be uttered on this, or any website. Those "much better choices" were exactly that. I wasn't going to beat a dead horse here, but you invited it. Every one of these players is an aging, recovering from injury, on bad teams, rookies, RBBC guys, or D, all of the above. You really need to put down the pipe dude...crack kills. You are honestly stating, with a straight face, that this list of craptacular options is just as good or not much less risky than Chester Taylor or Reuben Droughns? Please tell me you're kidding. And you honestly believe that taking Darrell Jackson was worth the RB hell that his team is sure to be in this year? Jumped the shark. Sorry Sweetness...you screwed the pooch there. Your draft is salvageable, but it'll be tough. And what's even tougher is that as has been pointed out, you have age issues already. You can say you like your veterans, but I see a team destined to lose players to injury. I'd say Dillon is the no-brainer here, but now you have a 4th player who's over 30, and coming off injury on a team that sucks about injuries. If you take him, it forces you into the handcuff - not terrible, but also risks both being healthy and splitting time to "keep Dillon fresh" creating a cluster where you never know who to play. I mean the best when I post...I just think you've dug yourself a hole here. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ratbastard1 0 Posted May 25, 2006 Da Bomb's response was excellent. His analysis is always as good as it gets. You say he's a solid WR2 and that matters more in a WR3 starting roster. My startegy in that format depends obviously on the size of the league, but I basically fill the #2, #3 and #4 WR roster slot with WR3 and WR4 type hoping one over-achieves his perceived value and grabs the #2. I also have my eyes peeled on the WW. In all Honesty, I do not play in a PPR. Im am going to take your view on DJax and move on. Im thinking you must go RB, RB but you know your league mates better. Ive always believed that RB depth is THE most important strategy in any league. I want to be at least 5 deep. Perhaps also i failed to remove my keeper league type views. Taking a pair of RBs from the same team will pin you to take another RB soon. yes the RBs still look deep, but dont you have a "like" or "gut feeling" for any of them? You should drop more of your lists of available so we can see who you like most. This thread has turned fun and its refreshing that you still went with your guy. Whens your pick man? Hurry up! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sweetness_34 0 Posted May 26, 2006 I have 2 picks coming up folks.....4.07 and 4.10.....Also I do NOT have a 5th round pick (hence the extra 4th rounder)......what should I do? I am inclined to go RB and QB here with next 2 picks.....which ones????? My inclination is Dillon on the RB if he lasts past the next pick since that guy needs a RB2 too.....otherwise Curtis Martin seems to be the choice. ============== Updated 1.01 LJ 1.02 LT 1.03 Shaun Alexander 1.04 Edge 1.05 Steven Jackson 1.06 Tiki Barber (my pick) 1.07 Portis 1.08 Lamont Jordan 1.09 Rudi Johnson 1.10 Caddy 1.11 Ronnie Brown 1.12 Mcgahee 2.01 Westbrook 2.02 Dom Davis 2.03 Steve Smith 2.04 Chad Johnson 2.05 Peyton Manning 2.06 Torry Holt 2.07 TO 2.08 Fitzgerald 2.09 Harrison 2.10 Randy Moss (my pick after trade down from 2.07 => got up from 3.05=>3.06 & 4.10=>5.06 too) 2.11 Boldin 2.12 Julius Jones 3.01 Antonio Gates 3.02 Reggie Bush 3.03 Reggie Wayne 3.04 Jamal Lewis 3.05 Darrell Jackson (My Pick) 3.06 Chris Chambers 3.07 Chester Taylor (your boy scooter ) 3.08 Hines Ward 3.09 Kevin Jones 3.10 Reuben Droughns 3.11 Roy Williams/WR 3.12 Willie Parker 4.01 Warrick Dunn 4.02 Santana Moss 4.03 Plaxico Burress 4.04 Joe Horn 4.05 Team has 1 QB/1RB/1 WR 4.06 Team has 2 RB/1 WR 4.07 My Pick 4.08 4.09 4.10 My Pick RBs left are: Corey Dillon Deuce McAllister Thomas Jones Tatum Bell Deshaun Foster Ahman Green Joseph Addai Chris Brown Cedric Benson Curtis Martin Fred Taylor Dominick Rhodes DeAngelo Williams Ron Dayne Lendale White Frank Gore Laurence Maroney WRs left are: Javon Walker Andre Johnson Donald Driver HOushmandzadeh Lee Evans etc TEs left are: All except Gates QBs left are: All except Peyton Manning Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SoloMatisse 0 Posted May 26, 2006 Sweet- Dont reach for the QB just yet. I waited until the 9th round of a draft last year for Palmer and he ended up leading the league. Be patient. Sure up your other positions. I still say back to back RBs. Go with your gut. Youve received lots of advice. I like Dillon and Benson, and youre a Bears homer for God's sake, so get your man already. All signs are that Benson is breaking out this year. That kid has desire and drive. Think about it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted May 26, 2006 scooter - with all due respect, agree to disagree. its hard to make too much of a claim for drougns or taylor as easy, safe picks. taylor has never carried the load before, and he has two other pretty talented RBs in town, plus he's playing in a new system that is hard to read -- if anything even harder, with the way philly ran last year, or didnt run. im even a vikings fan, and i liked the taylor signing, but i have no idea how the carries will be split. we've had about one productive fantasy RB season in the last 10 years. with droughns, he is the epitome of risky to me. hes in legal problems all the time, and theyve come up already just recently. who knows how that plays out or if he even plays this season. without that, hes a good pick, but otherwise hes fairly risky. guys like cumar and dillon have been in this league awhile, and you know basically what to expect. they have risks too, but so does any RB after the first 5 picks or so. its a matter of choosing risks wisely. as for him taking a "4th player over 30", that is just false. hes got three guys so far, and far as i know, only one over 30. anyways, like i said, you have strong opinions and i ahve mine, so agree to disagree. sweetness - i strongly suggest going with 2 RBs here unless you are madly in love with one of the QB, WR, or TE targets. tony gonzalez is an intriguing pick this late in the game (at 4.10) especially in a PPR. if you like him as much as some, hes a good pick, but beware that taking a TE so early means youre going to get your backup RB in the 6th, starting QB and WR in the 7th and 8th, and then backups after that probably. so if you take gonzo, you have to be positive that hes THAT much better than what you can get later. im a gonzo fan, but even i am not sure if hes worth that much more than many TEs this year. my opinion is about the same at QB and WR. if palmer was healthy, hes an obvious pick, but otherwise hes risky and there will be a lot of good QBs available in the 7th-9th rounds. i say only build a draft around an early QB if hes an absolute slam dunk. imo no one left fits that bill. with WR... its risky. if you manage to hit both your RB and WR picks here, your team will be pretty dang stacked, but if you miss one or the other, you'll be left trying to rebound all season. javon walker obviously has upside, but i just tore my ACL myself and know how tough rehab is so im very slow there. andre johnson's talent is obviously there, but hes been picked in the 4th two years in a row and has been a huge consistent disappointment. i like donald driver a lot, and you know he'll get his from favre, so if you want a WR, hes the only one of that group i'd really consider. hes worth about the same as djax to me, and he'd give you three high scoring steady PPR receivers. if you feel strongly about one RB and can handle having a weak 3rd RB, maybe try driver at 4.10 if hes there. otherwise my recommendation personally is to go RB-RB here. i would say grab one guy with high upside but also bust potential -- a bell or a benson -- and then get a different steadier guy who you know about what to expect -- cumar or dillon perhaps. start with the steady pick at 4.7. lets say its cumar. that gives you tiki, moss, djax, and cumar -- a very solid quartet to build around. you know exactly what youre getting there, and theyre all good in PPR format, you just dont have a lot of upside there. however, not a ton of downside eitehr. gives you a solid foundation, where you can now start drafting upside. draft an upside RB here at 4.10, bell or benson or even addai or deangelo. draft an upside QB in the 6th or 7th round, draft a handful of upside WRs after that. the way i see it, youre getting yourself a quartet of guys you know you can pretty much count on. now you have the luxury to make some boom-or-bust picks and hope that a couple pay off. if they do, you'll be in awesome shape. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Let Da Big Dog Eat 40 Posted May 26, 2006 You need at least 3 RB's to play FF (injury, bye weeks). I would go RB RB here and take Dillon and Green. Both have significant risk but great upside. All the rest have PT issues. If both work out, you have great trade value. Then go WR or QB (depending on runs). But, the bottom line is, you can't win SB's without 2 good RB's. Then, later you can maybe find a rook or BU and watch the WW. TE is the last place to look as every year, one can be found late or on the WW who is competitive. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jocstrap 8 Posted May 26, 2006 Go with Foster then Bell - Foster - Carolina is a strong defensive team, if they get the lead they will pound the ball and leave it up to the defense. Additionally, Steven Davis i think is gone who stole 10+ td's last year. Foster will not loose those carries to Deangelo on the 1 and 2 yard line this year (and shelton doesn't scare me yet to vulture). Bell - What an upside this 4.3 forty guy has. He scored last year on a limited basis. He's a great high risk high reward guy for your #3. (the only thing that scares me is the Thomas Jones trade floating around on this site). Note: this is why I don't like early drafts - if Jones leaves chi - Benson is the obvious choice here. You have two great receivers already (even though earlier i said they were old) I still like them both a lot - go ahead and get some depth at rb. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJJoe20 0 Posted May 26, 2006 Your team needs Addai and or Benson... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sweetness_34 0 Posted May 26, 2006 Updated folks (the guy who needed the 2nd RB passed and took a WR instead.....hmmmmmmm) 1.01 LJ 1.02 LT 1.03 Shaun Alexander 1.04 Edge 1.05 Steven Jackson 1.06 Tiki Barber (my pick) 1.07 Portis 1.08 Lamont Jordan 1.09 Rudi Johnson 1.10 Caddy 1.11 Ronnie Brown 1.12 Mcgahee 2.01 Westbrook 2.02 Dom Davis 2.03 Steve Smith 2.04 Chad Johnson 2.05 Peyton Manning 2.06 Torry Holt 2.07 TO 2.08 Fitzgerald 2.09 Harrison 2.10 Randy Moss (my pick after trade down from 2.07 => got up from 3.05=>3.06 & 4.10=>5.06 too) 2.11 Boldin 2.12 Julius Jones 3.01 Antonio Gates 3.02 Reggie Bush 3.03 Reggie Wayne 3.04 Jamal Lewis 3.05 Darrell Jackson (My Pick) 3.06 Chris Chambers 3.07 Chester Taylor (your boy scooter ) 3.08 Hines Ward 3.09 Kevin Jones 3.10 Reuben Droughns 3.11 Roy Williams/WR 3.12 Willie Parker 4.01 Warrick Dunn 4.02 Santana Moss 4.03 Plaxico Burress 4.04 Joe Horn 4.05 Donald Driver 4.06 TJ Houshmandzadeh 4.07 My Pick 4.08 4.09 4.10 My Pick RBs left are: Corey Dillon Deuce McAllister Thomas Jones Tatum Bell Deshaun Foster Ahman Green Joseph Addai Chris Brown Cedric Benson Curtis Martin Fred Taylor Dominick Rhodes DeAngelo Williams Ron Dayne Lendale White Frank Gore Laurence Maroney etc WRs left are: Javon Walker Andre Johnson Lee Evans Muhsin M Eric Moulds etc TEs left are: All except Gates QBs left are: All except Peyton Manning ======================= I am on the clock bitches...... And I am still confused as hell Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ratbastard1 0 Posted May 26, 2006 Lets see if i can help: astericks=positive aspect of the following 6 categories: Good team/running game, healthy, not old, proven, high ceiling, incumbant starter. Corey Dillon **** Deuce McAllister *** Thomas Jones ****** Deshaun Foster *** Tatum Bell ***** Ahman Green *** Joseph Addai **** Chris Brown ** Cedric Benson **** Curtis Martin *** Fred Taylor * Dominick Rhodes **** DeAngelo Williams **** Ron Dayne *** Lendale White * Frank Gore ** Laurence Maroney **** 2 other guys: Barlow ** Gado * These are judgmental and i just did it quickly. So here's how it looks to me: Thomas Jones ****** Tatum Bell ***** Corey Dillon **** Joseph Addai **** Cedric Benson **** Dominick Rhodes **** DeAngelo Williams **** Laurence Maroney **** Deuce McAllister *** Deshaun Foster *** Ahman Green *** Curtis Martin *** Ron Dayne *** Chris Brown ** Kevan Barlow ** Frank Gore ** Sam Gado * Fred Taylor * Lendale White * So these look like good picks: Corey Dillon **** Joseph Addai **** Cedric Benson **** Dominick Rhodes **** DeAngelo Williams **** Laurence Maroney **** These look like the way to go: Thomas Jones ****** Tatum Bell ***** I think I might agree with the way it shaped up. Jones could lose 1-2 stars if he moves but then Benson would gain 1 and both would be good picks. I like Bell's upside and competition (Dayne?) the best for a good running team. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
football_scooter 0 Posted May 26, 2006 Lets see if i can help:astericks=positive aspect of the following 6 categories: Good team/running game, healthy, not old, proven, high ceiling, incumbant starter. Corey Dillon **** Deuce McAllister *** Thomas Jones ****** Deshaun Foster *** Tatum Bell ***** Ahman Green *** Joseph Addai **** Chris Brown ** Cedric Benson **** Curtis Martin *** Fred Taylor * Dominick Rhodes **** DeAngelo Williams **** Ron Dayne *** Lendale White * Frank Gore ** Laurence Maroney **** 2 other guys: Barlow ** Gado * These are judgmental and i just did it quickly. So here's how it looks to me: Thomas Jones ****** Tatum Bell ***** Corey Dillon **** Joseph Addai **** Cedric Benson **** Dominick Rhodes **** DeAngelo Williams **** Laurence Maroney **** Deuce McAllister *** Deshaun Foster *** Ahman Green *** Curtis Martin *** Ron Dayne *** Chris Brown ** Kevan Barlow ** Frank Gore ** Sam Gado * Fred Taylor * Lendale White * So these look like good picks: Corey Dillon **** Joseph Addai **** Cedric Benson **** Dominick Rhodes **** DeAngelo Williams **** Laurence Maroney **** These look like the way to go: Thomas Jones ****** Tatum Bell ***** I think I might agree with the way it shaped up. Jones could lose 1-2 stars if he moves but then Benson would gain 1 and both would be good picks. I like Bell's upside and competition (Dayne?) the best for a good running team. good luck with that, man. That said, I like DeShawn Foster here. The job is his to lose, he's young, and I think he's hungry to shake the fragile tag. Broken bones are flukish and he's had his bad luck...that's one way of looking at it. He was EXPLOSIVE the last couple games I saw him in...huge runs, huge receiving skillz. Take Foster - solid team around him (improved with Key there even), solid run-heavy coach and a good defense to keep them in games. I love Foster here. Dillon is indeed over 30 and coming off an injury plagued couple seasons...if it were preseason and you could get a gander at him, great...but he & CMart are way too risky since you have older players already. I think you take Foster here and then take a flier on Dillon or CMart with your next pick. Of better yet, take one of the youth with upsdide. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAn 39 Posted May 26, 2006 Had Driver fell I would have made a case for a rb at 4.7 then Driver at 4.10. That would have given you Moss/DJax/Driver...all potential to fall in top15, to an extent, helping the possible drawbacks at rb. With him gone, agree with Bomb that will likely have to go RB/RB here. Like the thought of Foster here or maybe <gulp> Bell. I'd also strongly consider Addai. Moving forward, depending on how draft continues I'd be thinking: 6th QB 7th WR 8TH WR/QB 9TH QB/WR With taking qb semi-late (feels like a run coming in 5-6 which you may be mid-tail end), a stragety I've used that's worked well is to be amongst last to grab my starting QB and amongst first to grab a b/up...likely 1 of them will pan out and be a servicable-solid qb for you. If both do, bonus. So depending on draft/who's left may have to pull trigger in 8th for that b/up QB. Then in 7th and 8th/9th go for 2 WRs to fill in behind Moss/DJax...RSmith/Porter/Kennison/Stallworth types. Possible a 'sleeper' type RB will fall in that area so may have to forego a 4th wr which would be fine. IMO, again depending on how draft falls, strongly would consider getting 2 QBs out of 6-9. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SoloMatisse 0 Posted May 26, 2006 I dont know about the Foster pick. Id stated earlier that a Foster/Williams combo wouldnt be bad, but taking Foster here as your 2 RB.....just dunno. He's seemingly always hurt, he's never carried the load or had close to 1000yds, or had more than 2 rushing TDs in a season. Why would anyone really want him as a #2 back? with this current team? Moss and Jax are slight injury risks...now you throw Foster on this team? Its not the right fit for this team. Corey Dillon had 12 or 13 TDs banged up last year...if youre taking a chance on a RB with a little injury risk, atleast get a guy who's proven he can get you 12plus TDs hurt. I like Carolina's running attack and D...just not Foster as a reliable, feature back. Theyve got Shelton and Williams and they WILL use those kids this year.....Shelton probably all around the goalline. Go in another direction besides Foster. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cinciman7 2 Posted May 26, 2006 Scared of Ron Dayne? Your gonna look back on not picking Tatum Bell and kick yourself in the azz. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jarvis Basnight 119 Posted May 26, 2006 Judging by what's there now I'd probably take Thomas Jones and Cedric in the 5th/6th because of the value. Jones has fell a long way due to the uncertainty of his future. They may be a better combo than Dillon/Maroney. It is somewhat unstable right now in Chicago but look at it this way....Jones/Benson is probably better in a PPR league than Dillon/Maroney and if Jones gets traded to another team, you could end up with 2 starting RB's by the start of the season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SoloMatisse 0 Posted May 26, 2006 Its tough to be big on taking two Bears backs here. Id think if you were going Chicago RB, youd need to make a choice....either Jones or Benson. Youve got 2 picks here in close range, and you need to make them count. The Bears had one of the worst offenses in the league last year. I dont need to tell anyone this. They scored a measely 260points.......absolutely one of the worst totals in the league. Do NOT take 2 Bears players of any kind back to back at this stage. New England averaged a TD better per game than the Bears. What may 'probably' be the right thing is not getting done. You need to be 'absolutely' sure of what youre doing here. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jarvis Basnight 119 Posted May 26, 2006 Its tough to be big on taking two Bears backs here. Id think if you were going Chicago RB, youd need to make a choice....either Jones or Benson. Youve got 2 picks here in close range, and you need to make them count. The Bears had one of the worst offenses in the league last year. I dont need to tell anyone this. They scored a measely 260points.......absolutely one of the worst totals in the league. Do NOT take 2 Bears players of any kind back to back at this stage. New England averaged a TD better per game than the Bears. What may 'probably' be the right thing is not getting done. You need to be 'absolutely' sure of what youre doing here. The Bears offense was terrible....and still Thomas Jones was a top 10 back. They can only go up and they will always be a running team. I disagree with Solo. New England is a better offensive team as a whole but Corey Dillon isn't even considered as a receiver, they use Faulk for that. I don't see them totally getting rid of Faulk now that Maroney is there. It's a PPR league and Thomas Jones is more of a threat out of the backfield than Dillon is. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SoloMatisse 0 Posted May 26, 2006 Thomas JOnes had 26 catches for 143 yds. Whatever he did last year....divide that in half. What else? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jarvis Basnight 119 Posted May 26, 2006 Thomas JOnes had 26 catches for 143 yds. Whatever he did last year....divide that in half. What else? You're correct and I realized that after I posted. He did, however, pull in 56 in 2004 so Chicago has used him in the past, more than what can be said about Dillon. In 2004 Dillon had 15 catches, in 2005 he had 24. Faulk is the receiving threat in New England and that probably won't change. Ultimately, I believe Jones/Benson will be a more productive FF backfield than Dillon/Maroney in a PPR. I like Dillon/Maroney also and don't think it would be a failure if that's the route Sweetness went since I mentioned Dillon earlier in the thread but I just feel I give the edge to Jones here since it's a PPR league. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted May 26, 2006 just to rehash the strategy from the last pick at 3.5... he passed up on RB so he could take a much surer thing in WR as djax (or chambers or ward). in the meantime, its his pick at 4.7 and now all he missed out on were chester taylor, reuben droughns, willie parker, and warrick dunn. still sitting there smiling at him are curtis martin, corey dillon, tatum bell, thomas jones, and a lot of young talent. meanwhile the dropoff at WR has been pretty huge. from taking a good consistent high scoring WR to already taking flyers on a guy like tj houshmanzadeh. ouch. in conclusion, well played sweetness. now to figure out what you do here. i think taking WRs at this point is out. there just isnt anyone here to merit the pick over the available talent elsewhere. never be the guy picking at the end of a run. obviously this first pick here needs to be a RB. the second pick has to either be a RB, QB, or TE. as i said before, if you feel quite certain that one of the TEs (gonzo?) or QBs (??) is worth that much more than anyone else, then its worth a gamble. otherwise, the value at RB is awfully hard to pass up. i think you take a more certain steady thing first here -- dillon or my preference martin -- and then roll the dice with a guy you like at the second pick -- my preference bell, or else perhaps jones or benson or addai. let me build a case for curtis martin. i just dont see whats not to like about the guy. first, in 11 seasons he never missed any significant time to injury in any season until last year. he also never fell below 1000 yards rushing in any season until last year. in a vacuum, that would be reason to worry. however, it wasnt just age getting up there, it was a significant injury cumar dealt with, and he dealt with it all season. furthermore, the offensive line was absolutely awful, and the QB play was just as bad. doubtful that any RB could have had a good season in that offense. this year, there are reasons to believe cumar should be better. for one, hes had the offseason to heal up and rest. two, he has two capable guys -- pennington and ramsey -- at QB. they wont light the world on fire, but they beat the heck out of the mess that was last season. three, he has a mammoth new OT dbrickashaw ferguson, a mean new center nick mangold, and a veteran trey teague on that line in front of him for a vastly improved line. fourth, the jets still have no RB behind him threatening to steal carries -- like cedric houston, derrick blaylock, or leon washington are scaring anyone. assume that hes healthy this season, to start, but to be fair, we'll say that age and injury take its toll at least a little -- not a lot, considering his high durability over the years. lets say he plays 14 games. hes averaged 330 carries a season in his career (and some of that with jordan stealing touches). we'll be conservative and give him 280 carries this season. he has a 4.0 career ypc, but we'll again be conservative and say 3.8 this season. he averages 10.5 TDs a season. we'll give him 8. he basically hits 40 receptions year in and year out. we'll be conservative and give him 30. so we're looking at about... 14 games, 280 carries, 3.8 ypc, 1064 rush yards, 8 TDs, 40 receptions, 260 receiving yards and again all of that is assuming that hes going to miss 2 games and lose some effectiveness due to age in the rest of the games. i personally count on him playing 16 and not showing as much wear and tear as people think. but even if you assume all of the above, that gives him over 1300 combined yards and 8 TDs with 40 catches as a lower bound. show me any other RB with that sort of a near-guarantee sticker on him. corey dillon, you argue, because he'll get you 10-12 TDs? well he'll also only get 20 catches, so that negates the TD difference right there, and his yardage should be less than cumar with a worse line and a stud rookie stealing carries. how about tatum bell? possible, if he gets enough touches, but last year he would've had less stats in every category, and dayne is supposed to be starter for now. what about thomas jones, surely you can make a case for him? last year, with benson injured much of the year, jones had about 1500 yards, 9 TDs, and 25 catches. thats less than 1 ppg more than our lower bound expectations for cumar this season, plus you have to believe jones is going to start losing SOME touches to benson at some point. deshaun foster? last season in his best year of his career, he had less yards, less catches, and WAY less tds. but he had stephen davis vulturing? so, this year he has a much younger, more talented player vulturing too. i believe curtis martin is a slam dunk pick here. he doesnt have huge upside to break out, but hes steady and he'll score you a lot of points and make a fine, steady RB2. he'll give you four guys to build a foundation on and allow you to make some gambles the rest of your draft. he also, if healthy, can be just as good as any RB you couldve taken at the moss spot in the 2nd. i say take him and dont look back. with your other 4.10, go ahead and make a gamble on an upside guy you like. i especially like someone like tatum bell, who has flashed high potential and has also shown good receiving skills. bottom line, i have made my case for cumar. if i draft this year and know i can get this guy in the 4th in a PPR league, my life just got a whole lot easier. i honestly cant believe hes fallen this far. 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SoloMatisse 0 Posted May 26, 2006 You're correct and I realized that after I posted. He did, however, pull in 56 in 2004 so Chicago has used him in the past, more than what can be said about Dillon. In 2004 Dillon had 15 catches, in 2005 he had 24. Faulk is the receiving threat in New England and that probably won't change. Ultimately, I believe Jones/Benson will be a more productive FF backfield than Dillon/Maroney in a PPR. I like Dillon/Maroney also and don't think it would be a failure if that's the route Sweetness went since I mentioned Dillon earlier in the thread but I just feel I give the edge to Jones here since it's a PPR league. I wont nessecarily disagree with you here on the overall production because it is in fact yet to be seen. All im suggesting is that he should NOT take those 2 in back to back rounds based on the overall production of the O. Jones rushed for 9 TDs last year in basically a full season with a little time missed here and there, and he's about to give over a large portion of that load to the $17million kid who's likely about to take the job outright, imo. 26 catches is just not enough recp action to swing away from a RB playing on a great team with such balance. Brady led the league in passing yds last year, and theyll be in scoring position a ton this year......their schedule is nothing like last year. Im curious, JB. Did you draft Larry Johnson last year? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jarvis Basnight 119 Posted May 26, 2006 I wont nessecarily disagree with you here on the overall production because it is in fact yet to be seen. All im suggesting is that he should NOT take those 2 in back to back rounds based on the overall production of the O. Jones rushed for 9 TDs last year in basically a full season with a little time missed here and there, and he's about to give over a large portion of that load to the $17million kid who's likely about to take the job outright, imo. 26 catches is just not enough recp action to swing away from a RB playing on a great team with such balance. Brady led the league in passing yds last year, and theyll be in scoring position a ton this year......their schedule is nothing like last year. Im curious, JB. Did you draft Larry Johnson last year? In one of my leagues, a keeper, I stole him early from the Priest owner. Now, I have the luxury of LJ going into the season. Why do you ask? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
football_scooter 0 Posted May 26, 2006 just to rehash the strategy from the last pick at 3.5... he passed up on RB so he could take a much surer thing in WR as djax (or chambers or ward). in the meantime, its his pick at 4.7 and now all he missed out on were chester taylor, reuben droughns, willie parker, and warrick dunn. still sitting there smiling at him are curtis martin, corey dillon, tatum bell, thomas jones, and a lot of young talent. meanwhile the dropoff at WR has been pretty huge. from taking a good consistent high scoring WR to already taking flyers on a guy like tj houshmanzadeh. ouch. in conclusion, well played sweetness. Uhm, "all he missed out on" were the best 4 back left on the board, and the dropoff from those guys to the risk of every one of who's left is pretty big. Meanwhile that "drop off" at WR you refer to seems to be minimal - guys like Derrick Mason, and am I hallucinating, or is Andre Johnson still sitting there at 4.07??? That would have been the steal of the draft (or had potential to be) had a RB been taken at 3.xx I don't know about you Bomb, but regardless of the pretty picture you paint of CMart, he's 32, has suffered knee injuries, has a ton of milage, and plays behind a mediocre line with a mediocre offense around him and a semi-decent defense. I can't see how the team he has now is any stronger for having taken a WR there. I'm not trying to be a pessimist here - I'm trying to evaluate this draft and determine if the stratgey is sound. He posted it here for evaluation/commentary and i am just providing mine. But honestly, how is this team: Tiki Barber/CMart RMoss/DJax or this team Tiki/Dillon RMoss/DJax better than this team: Tiki/CTaylor RMoss/AJohnson or this team: Tiki/Droughns RMoss/AJohnson or this team: Tiki/CTaylor RMoss/DMason or this team: Tiki/Droughns RMoss/DMason or even these teams with Tiki/Dunn and a combo of Moss+Mason or AJohnson. ? Call me funny, but while somewhat risky, I think the upside of a healthy youthful Chester Taylor in a rebuilt Vikings offense (with Hutch on the line, btw) is significantly higher than either of the 30+ RBs, and I fail to see how WR suffers from this at all, considering both Mason and AJ are left on the board at 4.07. 3 WRs makes no difference to me here because RBs are still the premium position. Hell, at this point he could have taken both Mason AND Andre Johnson potentially and gotten a proven veteran that he loves so much and an upside bounce back WR who has all the skills to be a top 15 receiver or better. But now he cannot because he's forced to go RB. Again - not trying to rain on anyone's parade here, but I think there was better value to be had in taking 2 RBs in the 1st three rounds, and I think his team would have been stronger for it. If anything this draft has shown me I can wait until the 3rd for a RB if the elite WR I like is there in the 2nd, but slip it any longer and I'm doomed. Lesson learned. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SoloMatisse 0 Posted May 26, 2006 In one of my leagues, a keeper, I stole him early from the Priest owner. Now, I have the luxury of LJ going into the season. Why do you ask? Good move by you in that league last season. I ask because I wanted to know if you could see something like that coming. You did...atleast in that one league. Ive had LJ in every league Ive been in for the past 2 years. Sometimes youve got to live a little on the edge for a minute while youre prognosticating about future studs, but it will worth doing with Benson, imo. Im not suggesting he'll be the next LJ, but he'll be in a similar spot very soon with potential to do great things. So back me up on this one you friggin' LJ visionary you, and help me push Benson. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mdubz 0 Posted May 26, 2006 Uhm, "all he missed out on" were the best 4 back left on the board, and the dropoff from those guys to the risk of every one of who's left is pretty big. Meanwhile that "drop off" at WR you refer to seems to be minimal - guys like Derrick Mason, and am I hallucinating, or is Andre Johnson still sitting there at 4.07??? That would have been the steal of the draft (or had potential to be) had a RB been taken at 3.xx I don't know about you Bomb, but regardless of the pretty picture you paint of CMart, he's 32, has suffered knee injuries, has a ton of milage, and plays behind a mediocre line with a mediocre offense around him and a semi-decent defense. I can't see how the team he has now is any stronger for having taken a WR there. I'm not trying to be a pessimist here - I'm trying to evaluate this draft and determine if the stratgey is sound. He posted it here for evaluation/commentary and i am just providing mine. But honestly, how is this team: Tiki Barber/CMart RMoss/DJax or this team Tiki/Dillon RMoss/DJax better than this team: Tiki/CTaylor RMoss/AJohnson or this team: Tiki/Droughns RMoss/AJohnson or this team: Tiki/CTaylor RMoss/DMason or this team: Tiki/Droughns RMoss/DMason or even these teams with Tiki/Dunn and a combo of Moss+Mason or AJohnson. ? Call me funny, but while somewhat risky, I think the upside of a healthy youthful Chester Taylor in a rebuilt Vikings offense (with Hutch on the line, btw) is significantly higher than either of the 30+ RBs, and I fail to see how WR suffers from this at all, considering both Mason and AJ are left on the board at 4.07. 3 WRs makes no difference to me here because RBs are still the premium position. Hell, at this point he could have taken both Mason AND Andre Johnson potentially and gotten a proven veteran that he loves so much and an upside bounce back WR who has all the skills to be a top 15 receiver or better. But now he cannot because he's forced to go RB. Again - not trying to rain on anyone's parade here, but I think there was better value to be had in taking 2 RBs in the 1st three rounds, and I think his team would have been stronger for it. If anything this draft has shown me I can wait until the 3rd for a RB if the elite WR I like is there in the 2nd, but slip it any longer and I'm doomed. Lesson learned. hate to say it, but i agree... once i get passed to big 8 wrs (smith, TO, holt, chad, fitz, boldin, harrison, randy), i would much rather take chester or droughns and get a guy like AJ or santana then take a djax (who is oft injured) and then cumar (who is on the decline of his career). that's just me though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SoloMatisse 0 Posted May 26, 2006 Uhm, "all he missed out on" were the best 4 back left on the board, and the dropoff from those guys to the risk of every one of who's left is pretty big. Meanwhile that "drop off" at WR you refer to seems to be minimal - guys like Derrick Mason, and am I hallucinating, or is Andre Johnson still sitting there at 4.07??? That would have been the steal of the draft (or had potential to be) had a RB been taken at 3.xx I don't know about you Bomb, but regardless of the pretty picture you paint of CMart, he's 32, has suffered knee injuries, has a ton of milage, and plays behind a mediocre line with a mediocre offense around him and a semi-decent defense. I can't see how the team he has now is any stronger for having taken a WR there. I'm not trying to be a pessimist here - I'm trying to evaluate this draft and determine if the stratgey is sound. He posted it here for evaluation/commentary and i am just providing mine. But honestly, how is this team: Tiki Barber/CMart RMoss/DJax or this team Tiki/Dillon RMoss/DJax better than this team: Tiki/CTaylor RMoss/AJohnson or this team: Tiki/Droughns RMoss/AJohnson or this team: Tiki/CTaylor RMoss/DMason or this team: Tiki/Droughns RMoss/DMason or even these teams with Tiki/Dunn and a combo of Moss+Mason or AJohnson. ? Call me funny, but while somewhat risky, I think the upside of a healthy youthful Chester Taylor in a rebuilt Vikings offense (with Hutch on the line, btw) is significantly higher than either of the 30+ RBs, and I fail to see how WR suffers from this at all, considering both Mason and AJ are left on the board at 4.07. 3 WRs makes no difference to me here because RBs are still the premium position. Hell, at this point he could have taken both Mason AND Andre Johnson potentially and gotten a proven veteran that he loves so much and an upside bounce back WR who has all the skills to be a top 15 receiver or better. But now he cannot because he's forced to go RB. Again - not trying to rain on anyone's parade here, but I think there was better value to be had in taking 2 RBs in the 1st three rounds, and I think his team would have been stronger for it. If anything this draft has shown me I can wait until the 3rd for a RB if the elite WR I like is there in the 2nd, but slip it any longer and I'm doomed. Lesson learned. Scooter, Im feelin' ya, and I too agree, but its a done deal right now, so lets help our boy out and stay positive for him. Taylor could be the next Lamont Jordan for sure, but he could also be the next Travis Henry....you just never know. He's still got time to recover. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted May 26, 2006 i have yet to see why youre so certain that taylor or drougns or dunn shouldve been much better picks than dillon or cumar now. dunn had a huge career year last year and somehow averaged 5+ ypc and still had 1450 yards, only 4 TDs, and only 29 catches. the numbers i put up for lower bound cumar estimates, because of the difference in catches and TDs, blow dunn out of the water. plus dunn has several guys stealing carries -- duckett, vick, and the new RB -- and hes also over 30. reuben droughns, if i knew he would not get himself into more legal troubles, you can make a case for. without anyone noticing, he sprung for 1600 yards last year and had 40 catches to go with it. still, only 2 TDs the whole season. again, the cumar estimates amount to a better season because of the huge difference in TDs. if drougns stays healthy and out of trouble, one could expect similar numbers with probably a few more TDs, but the legal issues are a huge question mark. chester taylor has never had his shot. hes playing in a backfield with mewelde moore, whos consistently shown that he can be a productive nfl running back. hes also playing with a brand new coach and a brand new system. and this is the same coach who gave brian westbrook, his teams only runner, about 12 carries a game last year. also the same coach who has consistently used a 2nd bigger RB to get the TD carries. there are reasons to like taylor, sure. hes young, he has a great line, and hes shown he can catch passes for a coach who likes receiving RBs. but hes also unproven, has to fight off mewelde for playing time and catches, and is in a new system. and also, like i said, the vikings have had exactly one productive fantasy RB season in the past 10 or 15 years. good upside, but certainly no sure thing. meanwhile, the WR youre hyping as just-as-good as djax, steal of the draft material (andre johnson), has been a mammoth bust each year in the nfl. hes averaged 65 catches a year for about 900 yards and 4 TDs. did you take him in the 4th round last year too? and the year before? ask his owners the last two seasons how they felt about their investment. ask them if theyd rather have taken a WR like hines ward a round earlier, who has averaged 90 catches, 1100 yards, and 8 TDs the last five years. sorry, but youre arguments look and sound pretty, but they dont hold water when you actually consider numbers. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jarvis Basnight 119 Posted May 26, 2006 Good move by you in that league last season. I ask because I wanted to know if you could see something like that coming. You did...atleast in that one league. Ive had LJ in every league Ive been in for the past 2 years. Sometimes youve got to live a little on the edge for a minute while youre prognosticating about future studs, but it will worth doing with Benson, imo. Im not suggesting he'll be the next LJ, but he'll be in a similar spot very soon with potential to do great things. So back me up on this one you friggin' LJ visionary you, and help me push Benson. I completely agree about Benson. I think he's going to be great in Chicago. I think the Bears could be on the cusp of becoming a very good offensive team which would make them scary because their defense, and with this year's draft their special teams, could be freakish. I'm a believer in Benson and I'm going to try and get guys like him and Maroney in Keeper leagues because of their talent, but also for their situations and the organizations they're playing for. I was under the impression that this was a redraft, draft which is why I mention that you have to have the combinations of Dillon/Maroney or Jones/Benson. If it's just a redraft then the rookies are obviously not as important but handcuffs are more important so you may need to take the rookies semi-early. Your "vision" just needs to get you through the year. In keepers and dynasties, you definitely need to have vision, but in a simple redraft you don't. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MudDawgs4Life 6 Posted May 26, 2006 totally agree with scooter. youth, youth, youth. you win fantasy leagues by finding breakout players. guys who are going to have career years. not by taking the safe pick. not by taking curtis martin because he might bounce back at the age of 33. everybody knows he's sketchy as hell. there's a clear reason why curtis martin is available here in the late 4th round - BECAUSE HE'S ON THE DECLINE. taking curtis martin with your pick if fantasy suicide and i can't just sit back and watch you do it. In my mind you have to go with.... ...Joseph Addai. Somebody already mentioned this, but Dominick Rhodes isn't on too many people's radar. You'll be able to get him in the 6th (maybe even 7th). If you took DeShaun, there's a good chance somebody else in your league grabs DeAngelo before you get the chance. Same thing goes with the Chicago backs. Youth, youth, youth. Look at the teams who were in your championship last year. Go ahead, look at their rosters. I'm guessing they had sick backfields with players having career years. not aging vets. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Da Bomb 0 Posted May 26, 2006 and how many of those championship teams had rookie RBs like ronnie brown, cedric benson, jj arrington, and cadillac williams -- guys that were unproven but were young and flashy and were drafted in the 4th round ahead of safer vets like dunn or t jones last season? again, argue for flashy and for upside and whatever crap you want to argue, but fantasy football is about numbers. you go ahead and draft andre johnson's potential for the third season in a row in the 4th, and keep gambling on RBs who may or may not pan out to be as good as cumar pretty much already is. if i have curtis martin, i'll know that i can put him out there every week and expect at least 75 yards and a couple of catches, with a decent shot at a TD or more yards. that means i can expect at least 10 points any given week, upwards to 20 on a good week or nice matchup. take someone like addai instead, and he might blossom into another guy you can figure for 75 a week, or he might get 5 carries a week for 20 yards. why force yourself into gambling on a situation, when there are safe choices there who will score almost the same? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 547 Posted May 26, 2006 and how many of those championship teams had rookie RBs like ronnie brown, cedric benson, jj arrington, and cadillac williams -- guys that were unproven but were young and flashy and were drafted in the 4th round ahead of safer vets like dunn or t jones last season? again, argue for flashy and for upside and whatever crap you want to argue, but fantasy football is about numbers. you go ahead and draft andre johnson's potential for the third season in a row in the 4th, and keep gambling on RBs who may or may not pan out to be as good as cumar pretty much already is. if i have curtis martin, i'll know that i can put him out there every week and expect at least 75 yards and a couple of catches, with a decent shot at a TD or more yards. that means i can expect at least 10 points any given week, upwards to 20 on a good week or nice matchup. take someone like addai instead, and he might blossom into another guy you can figure for 75 a week, or he might get 5 carries a week for 20 yards. why force yourself into gambling on a situation, when there are safe choices there who will score almost the same? Last year, I took Cedric Benson in several drafts. I liked his upside and I usually don't shy away from rookies at RB....... I wish I had taken Warrick Dunn instead. I would have had a much more reliable #2 RB. I don't know if this supports your point or not.....I think maybe it does. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mdubz 0 Posted May 26, 2006 and how many of those championship teams had rookie RBs like ronnie brown, cedric benson, jj arrington, and cadillac williams -- guys that were unproven but were young and flashy and were drafted in the 4th round ahead of safer vets like dunn or t jones last season? again, argue for flashy and for upside and whatever crap you want to argue, but fantasy football is about numbers. you go ahead and draft andre johnson's potential for the third season in a row in the 4th, and keep gambling on RBs who may or may not pan out to be as good as cumar pretty much already is. if i have curtis martin, i'll know that i can put him out there every week and expect at least 75 yards and a couple of catches, with a decent shot at a TD or more yards. that means i can expect at least 10 points any given week, upwards to 20 on a good week or nice matchup. take someone like addai instead, and he might blossom into another guy you can figure for 75 a week, or he might get 5 carries a week for 20 yards. why force yourself into gambling on a situation, when there are safe choices there who will score almost the same? cumar had 75 yards or more 3 times out of 13 games last year. and he scored in 4 games. not to mention he got hurt the last 3 weeks when you need him most. the fact is the guy has tons of miles on him and is on the decline. houston will get more and more carries as the season goes on. you're telling me you'd rather have him and djax than chester or droughns who haven't taken nearly the amount of hits over their careers as curtis and are fresh and ready to be the features in new situations (i know droughns is in his second year but still, he's pretty fresh) and a guy like AJ who could have his break out year any time now (he showed signs late last year) and you could have a top 5 wr in the 4th round? i guess we have different opinions. you take djax and cumar, i'll take chester and AJ and we'll see who ends up better. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
football_scooter 0 Posted May 26, 2006 i have yet to see why youre so certain that taylor or drougns or dunn shouldve been much better picks than dillon or cumar now. I'm not certain. But when it comes to upside Vs risk, I think my arguments are quite sound. CTaylor has a shot to be a 1st round value. I don't see him playing any lower than a 3rd round value, so in essense it's a safe pick. The risk is that he's valued at exactly where he's taken in the 3rd and the upside is low 1st round (1500/8 TDs, 400/3 TDs) Whereas with either of the declining backs like Dillon or CMart, you get a guy who you have to hold your breath on every hit - a guy who's not only seen his best years behind him, but who's on a team that is somewhat in decline as well. Do you honestly think that the Pats or the Jets will be as competitive as the Vikings this year? I sure don't, and as anyone who saw me post here last year knows, I am far from a Vikings fan. But there's no questioning the rebuilding of that team, and everything I've read points to CTaylor as the feature back. They went out and got him - the 1st big signing of the offseason by any team. Then they gave him Hutch to open holes, and they have an offense that appears to be geared to using the run to open the pass. As for the OC concerns, the Eagles always tried to run more, but suffered injuries to their RBs, forcing them to use Westbrook more and to rely more on the pass. That was more a product of using the talent they had than a preference to throw the ball. And even if the Vikes get behind in games, Ctaylor is an above average receiver - and this is a PPR league. So while I cannot guarentee anything, I'll ALWAYS take the guy who's 1. younger 2. healthier 3. plays in a more competitive environment 4. has no one pushing him for his job 5. was just signed to a feature back $ contract. 6. Has the better O-Line I make those evaluations for every RB I pick when drafting, and in this case, I think CTaylor had the least risk and most upside of either of your two aging veterans in decline. And if MMoore was any threat to CT, then they woulda made him the feature back and saved millions. Surely there's a reason they went out & got Chester Taylor, and IMO it's obvious: MMoore is a fine stop-gap but he's not going to be anything more than he is. Chester Taylor is a genuine breakout candidate. It's an interesting debate, and I will certainly do the next installment of On the Clock based on CMart Vs CTaylor with this exact draft scenario to gague whether yours is the concensus opinion there - I'd be somewhat shocked if it was. chester taylor has never had his shot. hes playing in a backfield with mewelde moore, whos consistently shown that he can be a productive nfl running back. hes also playing with a brand new coach and a brand new system. and this is the same coach who gave brian westbrook, his teams only runner, about 12 carries a game last year. also the same coach who has consistently used a 2nd bigger RB to get the TD carries. there are reasons to like taylor, sure. hes young, he has a great line, and hes shown he can catch passes for a coach who likes receiving RBs. but hes also unproven, has to fight off mewelde for playing time and catches, and is in a new system. and also, like i said, the vikings have had exactly one productive fantasy RB season in the past 10 or 15 years. good upside, but certainly no sure thing. CTaylor has spent his time behind Jamal "2000 yards" Lewis. When he has had his opportunities, he's made the most of them. His stats support his being a boom far more than a bust. You cannot downgrade him simply because he's never had a chance to be a starter. Many guys played behind others in the NFL before getting their chance...Steve Young, Priest Holmes...those are the ones who come immediately to view there. But in limited time, CT has shown that he can get the job done. Averaged over 4 yards per carry, shown good hands and power. He's not as fast as Jamal Lewis, but even Jamal Lewis isn't as fast as Jamal Lewis any more. As for the GL carries and MMoore, I fail to see why they'd pull a guy who's 5'11"/215 (CT) for a guy who's 5'11"/209 - seems your "consistently used a 2nd bigger RB to get the TD carries" doesn't make much sense since Taylor is the bigger RB. meanwhile, the WR youre hyping as just-as-good as djax, steal of the draft material (andre johnson), has been a mammoth bust each year in the nfl. hes averaged 65 catches a year for about 900 yards and 4 TDs. did you take him in the 4th round last year too? and the year before? ask his owners the last two seasons how they felt about their investment. ask them if theyd rather have taken a WR like hines ward a round earlier, who has averaged 90 catches, 1100 yards, and 8 TDs the last five years. Obviously - but since AJ went in the early 3rd last year, and it's now 4.07 in this particular draft, AJ goes from "overvalued bust" to "solid value with upside". Don't forget that he was injured last season and has never had a complimentary receiver. Now he has both his health and a genuine threat on the other side of the field. New coaching and another season for Carr & Co to mature a bit and I think AJ is a bargain in the late 4th this year. Talk about upside, this guy has TO talent and while he has consistently disappointed, i tend to believe people have consistently overvalued him setting themselves up for unrealistic expectations. But there's good reason he's received the hype he has: the boy can ball, has all the physical tools and ability to be a top tier WR. sorry, but youre arguments look and sound pretty, but they dont hold water when you actually consider numbers. Actually I think my reasoning is somewhat stronger and better supported than yours, but we'll each have our opinions on the matter. One thing we can both agree on - this draft is great for discussion of strategy, philosophy and comparing players, so I thank Sweetness in advance for posting it here. Good debate. I'd be very interested to hear what Wildman has to say about the CuMart Vs CTaylor debate, so I'll get that OTC up in the next few hours. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fumbleweed 547 Posted May 26, 2006 I guess the question becomes "Why did Martin's numbers fall off last year so much after a monster 2004 season?" If you think it's because the Jets were just awful on the line and at the skill positions, then you probably think Martin can bounce back somewhat and be a dependable #2 RB. If you think it's because Martin's skills sharply diminished in the span of less than a year, then you don't. Martin's numbers from last year have to be looked at within the overall context of the team, his health, and the situation in general. To give out raw numbers without putting it all in context is an incomplete analysis. I'm not saying Martin will be solid next year. But, I do think it's a possibility. A decline in numbers can have different meanings. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
football_scooter 0 Posted May 26, 2006 Scooter, Im feelin' ya, and I too agree, but its a done deal right now, so lets help our boy out and stay positive for him. Taylor could be the next Lamont Jordan for sure, but he could also be the next Travis Henry....you just never know. He's still got time to recover. Oh, I agree - I'm honestly not looking to rip on his draft, and while I have strong opinions about the picks/value/risks, it's still his draft to do with as he pleases. So long as he's satisfied with his picks, that's what matters here. Hopefully he can recover with some solid picks in the middle rounds, which is where leagues are typically won & lost anyway. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites