Reggie Bush...downside?

[Boston 0]

Reggie Bush is an interesting character in fantasy this year and beyond. Pretty much everyone I've read agrees that he's at least going to be good. It just seems geeks have him slotted for different levels of good. Be it solid good or silly numbers good.

 

So my question isn't about how good he'll be. My question is what is his downside? What do you see as a worst case scenario for Reggie and why? Also, in a brand new keeper league where do you slot him? Up with the top studs or do you have him ranked a little lower?

 

This kid is a really intriguing fantasy player and I'm curious to see what the "downside" feedback is.

[gatorbait7391 0]

cant carry the load.

[Dragan187 7]

His downside is Duece McCallister.

 

Thank you and goodnight!

[DaveJ 0]

Downsides...

 

He is a rookie.. limited playing time and learning how to be a PRO will result in lackluster numbers for a FF player, but good for a rook. Future looks bright though.

 

Duece McAllister....

 

Playing in NO.. he will be th 'face' of the organization, but that place has a bad history of chewing people up fast. He will have to live up to the hype quickly.

 

Expectations... unless he gets 2000 yards this season he will not live up to all the hype around him. Until Duece is gone, Bush will (at his best) be a situational player (3rd down and Slot) and return specialist, along with spot relief carries.

 

Turf.... He is playing all his home games on turf, increased injury risk.

 

He could very likely end up being a head case or problem child in the NFL. This is a risk any high round pick takes. His proclaimed 'ignorance' on the house deal smacks of either a hidden "do anything to get what I think I deserve" attitude or blind gross stupidity with his dealings and those whom he surrounds himself with.

 

BEST BACK IN HISTORY syndrome..... those hyped and proclaimed the best thing since slice bread often crash hard..

 

The NFL is not the NCAA............

[ellisonb11 0]

His downside is Duece McCallister.

 

that simple. there u go.

[Boston 0]

One thing I really don't agree with. I don't see the Saints using the #2 pick and giving a huge deal to a situational player. While I agree that Deuce is a major issue for Bush (and vice versa) it's not going to make Bush into a Kevin Faulk type of player this year. He's far too talented for that type of role. If the new regime were ready to ride Deuce or saw Bush as more of a situational player than they simply would have drafted a Ferguson, Hawk or traded down.

[Dragan187 7]

they simply would have drafted a Ferguson, Hawk or traded down.

 

 

No freakin way.

Half the town of Houston was already pissed off when the Texans passed on Bush. New Orleans was all focked up from Katrina. No where to play, no where to go. By drafting Bush they bring interest back to New Orleans, sell a few memorabilia, and for the short term...live happily ever after.

 

As far as your "he's way too talented role" that you threw out there...well guess what? there are a buttload of great Collegiate players who never made it and were way too talented.

 

The Boz = way too talented

Tim Couch = Way too talented

Andre Ware = way too talented

KiJana Carter = way too talented..................want me to continue?

[Boston 0]

No freakin way.

Half the town of Houston was already pissed off when the Texans passed on Bush. New Orleans was all focked up from Katrina. No where to play, no where to go. By drafting Bush they bring interest back to New Orleans, sell a few memorabilia, and for the short term...live happily ever after.

 

As far as your "he's way too talented role" that you threw out there...well guess what? there are a buttload of great Collegiate players who never made it and were way too talented.

 

The Boz = way too talented

Tim Couch = Way too talented

Andre Ware = way too talented

KiJana Carter = way too talented..................want me to continue?

 

There's zero info here. I agree that there's plenty of busts that have been picked early. There's also plenty of great picks early. I'd rather you give me a detailed explanation as to why that he will fail than throw out names that have nothing to do with Bush especially when three of them aren't even running backs.

 

As for the marketing move. If you want to use that conspracy theory than you need to take it further. If New Orleans drafted Bush purely to sell tickets than why would they have all these fans come to a game and not watch him play early and often? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of drafting him?

[Dragan187 7]

There's zero info here.

 

 

I think it goes well with your "zero" post.

[Boston 0]

I think it goes well with your "zero" post.

 

Yeah, you're right. It's such an off the wall topic. Thanks for providing such great insight.

[famousb 11]

when you ask what is the downside, well the easy answer is that he could get crushed physically, and wind up as a nothing.

That is where Ki-Jana Carter comes to mind, and he is a very good comparison as for what the downside could be.

Carter went to a struggling Bengals team, which is reflected in the current NO team, and did almost absolutely nothing as a pro. Carter had college accolades:

1994 - First team All-American

1994 - Finished 2nd in Heisman voting

1994 - Ranked #4 in the nation in rushing yards per game

 

but that does not translate directly into the Pros.

[Boston 0]

when you ask what is the downside, well the easy answer is that he could get crushed physically, and wind up as a nothing.

That is where Ki-Jana Carter comes to mind, and he is a very good comparison as for what the downside could be.

Carter went to a struggling Bengals team, which is reflected in the current NO team, and did almost absolutely nothing as a pro. Carter had college accolades:

1994 - First team All-American

1994 - Finished 2nd in Heisman voting

1994 - Ranked #4 in the nation in rushing yards per game

 

but that does not translate directly into the Pros.

 

Every player that enters the NFL is a potential injury risk. Are you saying you think Bush is an injury risk due to his size? Carter blew a tire on kind of a freak play. Since you can't predict that I'd be more interested to know if you think that Bush won't be able to hold up to an NFL pounding or something along those lines.

[TerrySilver 0]

ok, let me finish this thread out with the final, correct answer.

 

 

what could be bush's downside is:

 

1. splitting time with duece mccallister

2. the possibility that he cant handle 20+ touches a game, since he never carried a full workload at USC. (possibility being the key word)

 

there you go, thread over.

[Wildman 0]

Okay, I'll play. Personally, I think Reggie Bush is going to be a great back in this league and I'm not afraid to make the comparison to Ladainian Tomlinson-Marshall Faulk kind of great, either.

 

Still, I'll give my best attempt to play Devil's Advocate against Reggie Bush:

 

Bush lacks the traditional size of a feature back-As I've heard other people argue about Bush, he has skinny legs which could mean he's maximized the healthy amount of muscle and weight he can add to his body without injury. For a back that will likely weigh in the range of 200-215 lbs throughout his career, he might not be able to withstand the grind of a 20-24 carry per game, 6-8 target per game, 16-game season for more than a few years before he breaks down in a major way. Bush has underrated power for his size, but he doesn't run with the I'm-going-to-hit-you-before-you-hit-me aggression of a back like Cadillac Williams. He'll have to be more in the mold of a Clinton Portis to be successful.

 

Bush's game is predicated on speed, balance, and explosiveness-If Bush loses speed and explosiveness due to injuries, he could become an ordinary back because vision is only good if you have the acceleration to take advantage of what he sees. In addition, what Bush see's are holes that most backs can't exploit because they lack his balance. Balance takes great strength and flexibility. If your legs are bad, that strength and flexibilty diminishes as does your Balance. Even if Bush doesn't get injured, he may not be quick or explosive enough to be more than a decent player at the pro level. While I don't buy that argument because he makes cuts quicker at full speed than any back I've seen since Gale Sayers, many people cite players like Desmond Howard and Peter Warrick. But those players made stop start cuts that could freeze a college defense but only allow an NFL defense to catch up and make the play. Neither were running backs nor could have been running backs. I believe if Bush suffers any chronic leg injuries that might limit other backs but still make them effective, it might effect Bush even more so because of how much he relies on these aspects of the game instead of his power.

 

Ball control Bush's greatest weakness on the college front was his ability to adequately protect the football. While he had a great track record of not fumbling the football, his method of holding the football is not sound. He holds the ball very far from his body while in the open field. He may be fast, but he'll encounter enough players in the NFL that might be able to slap the ball away from him while in the open field. If Bush has difficulty changing this tendency he could be on the bench for a while or not be the same runner.

 

I don't believe any of what I just wrote , but you asked...

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

Bush in a dynasty/keeper league is valuable. He is a Marshall Faulk/LT2 type of talent IMO. As most people n here know, I am a college football freak. I have NEVER seen such a game changing player like Bush.

 

The college draft is not an indicator for fantasy talent! For every Kijana Carter, there is a Terrell Davis.

[famousb 11]

The college draft is not an indicator for fantasy talent! For every Kijana Carter, there is a Terrell Davis.

 

and for every Terrell Davis there is a Correll Buckhalter... point being, there are steals and there are busts. you are correct, draft position has very little if no indication of actual performance in the NFL. For a much easier way to see this, just look at QBs drafted early...

 

 

Every player that enters the NFL is a potential injury risk. Are you saying you think Bush is an injury risk due to his size? Carter blew a tire on kind of a freak play. Since you can't predict that I'd be more interested to know if you think that Bush won't be able to hold up to an NFL pounding or something along those lines.

 

you asked downside, and injury-shortened or hampered career is a downside possibility.

now, if you want downside possibilities w/o the consideration of injury that is a different thing... i've said it in several of the other hundred Bush threads - he could be a time-splitter for much of the beginning part of his career, ala Tiki Barber & Warrick Dunn. How many years would either of them have been considered a legit #1 fantasy RB?? Up until last season, Tiki was one of those guys that you was always labeled as a "fumbler" and a guy who got his goalline carries vultured. Dunn still is just a "good #2" who gets alot of yards but loses the goalline carries.

You can't tell me you think Bush is going to be considered a goalline back when they have Deuce there. Even when Deuce is gone, they'll still put a big back on the roster to go w/ him (heck, Alstott may move to NO and play w/ his broken neck for the next 10 years...).

In a keeper league, are you willing to keep a guy on your roster for 3-5 years because of what he did in college just waiting and hoping for him to be the #1 back sometime?

[biscuitman357 0]

I think he'll have the same problems as Barry Sanders, and this is not to say he'll ever be as accomplished as Sanders was as an individual player.

 

Sanders had a very good YPC average. But it was an average. Sanders would break out a large run, then pop off a bunch of 2-2.5 yard runs and then get stuffed 5-6 times a game for a loss. He was a great open field runner, and a prototype run and shoot back, and very elusive, but he could not grind it out and power through.

 

I think Bush will have the same problems and it will hurt the Saints. Sure the one long run per game is gonna be great. Making defenses sweat and adjust to one player, opening up some passing opportunities for Brees is great - but those drive killing low average/lost yardage runs will hurt the Saints. NFL defenses are much faster and much more violent than what Bush saw in college. I think you'll see alot of opposing Ds, particular 4-3 teams, adjust by putting more playmakers/athletes on the field versus raw bulk (i.e. a 4-3 team will shift to a 3-4 package, add another quick linebacker to shadow Bush instead of an end who he can run around)

[HawgWild 0]

ok, let me finish this thread out with the final, correct answer.

what could be bush's downside is:

 

1. splitting time with duece mccallister

2. the possibility that he cant handle 20+ touches a game, since he never carried a full workload at USC. (possibility being the key word)

 

there you go, thread over.

 

 

I agree.. Those are the 2 obvious ones...

[jdswan922 0]

Let me preface this with the fact that I am not particularly high on Bush...

 

I think people are putting too much into McAllister relegating Bush to a 3rd down/situational role. Obviously he will dip into the amount of carries that Bush will see, but there is no way that McAllister will be the same as he was prior to the injury...if he ever returns to that level. It is a long recovery process. I think if anything, Bush has more value this year than he would next year if NO does not let the Deuce loose. That being said...Bush will not get all the carries. He will get a lot of touches however. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he gets near 18 touches a game. If he is as good as billed, that should be enough for him to make an impact fantasy-wise. I do not feel that he will be as good as billed, but that is more of a hunch than it is based on any facts. Well, maybe the abysmal NO team, but other than that there are no specific facts I can cite to support my opinion.

[Gephardt69 0]

blows an acl in the preseason... laterals the ball back and fumbles it a lot... finds out nfl defenses happen to be better then pac 10 defense... in fantasy terms, gives up every damn goalline down to deuce... take your pick.

[TD Ryan2 316]

it's tough to speculate how well Bush's game and size will translate in the pro game.... the pro scouts can't accurately do it; there's no way we FFTodayers can either (though everyone will have an opinion).

 

For me, the biggest factor (and biggest "downside") is The New Orleans Saints.

As Fantasy Footballers, we know that the quality of the team (i.e. the potency of the offense) is almost as important as the individual player's talent.

 

Sure, there have been some GREAT players that have been able to overcome their team's futility to perform well and post decent numbers, but that's rare.

It's more common to see average/mediocre players go on to rip it up because their team is an offensive juggernaut.

 

So, for Reggie Bush, you have to ask yourself what you think of The New Orleans Saints.

Do you think NO will get their franchise in order any time soon?

Is the NO ownership and management capable of putting a winning product on the field? IF so, When?

 

See, counting on Bush to be either the next Ki-Jana-Carter OR Barry Sanders is a risky proposition. He'll likely be neither. Assume that Bush will be an average to above average NFL RB and look at his franchise to determine just how much he'll succeed or fail.

[Redstone 0]

Bush in a dynasty/keeper league is valuable. He is a Marshall Faulk/LT2 type of talent IMO. As most people n here know, I am a college football freak. I have NEVER seen such a game changing player like Bush.

 

The college draft is not an indicator for fantasy talent! For every Kijana Carter, there is a Terrell Davis.

 

 

I have always been reminded of the Marshall when watching Reggie. Both were extremely explosive in college. Marshall was a slow starter in the NFL. I had him his rookie season and he was not a big fantasy producer with Indy the first year. Reggie could eventually be a monster like Marshall, but needs a good line and passing game to free him up.

[Boston 0]

Some great posts on this topic (especially Wildman). I really appreciate the effort put into them. Bush is one of those players I'm really high on one day and not so high the next. Some great info here to help with his slotting.

 

I don't put a lot of stock in preseason games with one big exception...rookie RBs going against first tem NFL defenders. That's the one area I think you can get some solid indicators before the real games start. I remember watching Edge in preseason as a rookie and knowing right away he was something special. Enough so that I used a second round pick on him. On the fipside I didn't watch Ron Dayne in preseason but drafted him somewhat early as a rookie and to this day it's probably the worst pick I ever made. The sad part was I knew I was in trouble the minute I saw him run as an NFL player. It just wasn't there. Therefore Bush is a guy I definetly want to see in preseason. I think you'll get a nice snapshot of how is game can potentially translate to the next level.

 

I have always been reminded of the Marshall when watching Reggie. Both were extremely explosive in college. Marshall was a slow starter in the NFL. I had him his rookie season and he was not a big fantasy producer with Indy the first year. Reggie could eventually be a monster like Marshall, but needs a good line and passing game to free him up.

 

He had a run against BYU (I think it may have been a Thursday night game) and it's about as fast as I have ever seen a football player not named Bo or Deion run.

[SoloMatisse 0]

His downside would have to be a Ki-Jana Carter type career. That would have to be any top rated RBs lowest possible 'downside', but I dont really see that happening with Bush because I sense he wont attempt to be a power back in any way. He'll be much more elusive and looking to avoid the big hit. That's one of the characteristics of truly great players.......knowing how NOT to get hit. Imo, that will determine whether he becomes a great player or just a decent player. As long as that kid is on the field, he WILL make plays.

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 40]

Single biggest factor will be lack of goal line carries.

[Boston 0]

Single biggest factor will be lack of goal line carries.

 

Do you think that's because Deuce will be there or because Bush just won't handle that area in general?

[DaveJ 0]

Do you think that's because Deuce will be there or because Bush just won't handle that area in general?

 

He needs to bulk up his legs and core a bit more if hes going to pound in TD's like Sanders etc.. unless he has a nose for zone like Marcus Allen did, slipping and sliding between the defenders etc he could get chewed up and spit out of a lot of piles. If he goes to the air... that could shorten his career considerably.

 

Speaking of goal lines... how many did he punch in from 4 or less yards ?? Anyone have any stats or memories? All the TD's I saw had him going in from a distance.

[famousb 11]

Speaking of goal lines... how many did he punch in from 4 or less yards ?? Anyone have any stats or memories? All the TD's I saw had him going in from a distance.

 

 

well. i remember at least 1 from a yard or so out. But he won't have Leinhart in NO to push him over the line either....

[NewbieJr 541]

His downsides, from a fantasy perspective are as follows:

 

Unless you get points from your running back spot for kickoff and punt returns, that yardage will go to waste for you.

 

He's either going to ba an eight carry per game/ four reception- type back (which will limit his fantasy productivity), or they'll try to force 25 touches on him, and his body may not be able to take the pounding.

 

I'm more inclined to think that they'll let Duece do the pounding, and use Bush as a third down, change of pace-type, and have him do all the returns. Kind of like the Eagles used Westbrook in his first two seasons.

[MDC 7,384]

Haven't read most of this thread but a few downside points:

 

* McAllister. Even if Reggie Bush is terrific, McAllister is too good to use in just a traditional backup role - he'll steal touches and carries.

* Possible lack of talent on offense. The Saints' OL took a big hit when they lost L.Bentley. Brees is coming off surgery so he's no sure bet. Horn is aging and Stallworth has never really reached his potential. The passing game could be dreadful, and teams might stack 8 men in the box all year.

* Tough sched? I'm not sure who exactly NO is playing, but they face the Panthers and Bucs twice this year - neither team is going to yeild yards on the ground easily.

* Injury risk, playing more than half of his games on turf.

* Could just be a prima donna. Between the housing deal and his request to wear #5, which struck me as kind of arrogant for a rookie, Bush could just be one of those guys who has a sense of entitlement.

* Might crumble under the expectations. Look at Ricky Williams. He was supposed to be the greatest RB in years and at best he had maybe one great season, not even in NO.

[remote controller 143]

Okay, I'll play. Personally, I think Reggie Bush is going to be a great back in this league and I'm not afraid to make the comparison to Ladainian Tomlinson-Marshall Faulk kind of great, either.

 

Still, I'll give my best attempt to play Devil's Advocate against Reggie Bush:

 

Bush lacks the traditional size of a feature back-As I've heard other people argue about Bush, he has skinny legs which could mean he's maximized the healthy amount of muscle and weight he can add to his body without injury. For a back that will likely weigh in the range of 200-215 lbs throughout his career, he might not be able to withstand the grind of a 20-24 carry per game, 6-8 target per game, 16-game season for more than a few years before he breaks down in a major way. Bush has underrated power for his size, but he doesn't run with the I'm-going-to-hit-you-before-you-hit-me aggression of a back like Cadillac Williams. He'll have to be more in the mold of a Clinton Portis to be successful.

 

Bush's game is predicated on speed, balance, and explosiveness-If Bush loses speed and explosiveness due to injuries, he could become an ordinary back because vision is only good if you have the acceleration to take advantage of what he sees. In addition, what Bush see's are holes that most backs can't exploit because they lack his balance. Balance takes great strength and flexibility. If your legs are bad, that strength and flexibilty diminishes as does your Balance. Even if Bush doesn't get injured, he may not be quick or explosive enough to be more than a decent player at the pro level. While I don't buy that argument because he makes cuts quicker at full speed than any back I've seen since Gale Sayers, many people cite players like Desmond Howard and Peter Warrick. But those players made stop start cuts that could freeze a college defense but only allow an NFL defense to catch up and make the play. Neither were running backs nor could have been running backs. I believe if Bush suffers any chronic leg injuries that might limit other backs but still make them effective, it might effect Bush even more so because of how much he relies on these aspects of the game instead of his power.

 

Ball control Bush's greatest weakness on the college front was his ability to adequately protect the football. While he had a great track record of not fumbling the football, his method of holding the football is not sound. He holds the ball very far from his body while in the open field. He may be fast, but he'll encounter enough players in the NFL that might be able to slap the ball away from him while in the open field. If Bush has difficulty changing this tendency he could be on the bench for a while or not be the same runner.

 

I don't believe any of what I just wrote , but you asked...

Defintly the desired input the post deserved.

[akareckas 0]

Reggie Bush is an interesting character in fantasy this year and beyond. Pretty much everyone I've read agrees that he's at least going to be good. It just seems geeks have him slotted for different levels of good. Be it solid good or silly numbers good.

 

So my question isn't about how good he'll be. My question is what is his downside? What do you see as a worst case scenario for Reggie and why? Also, in a brand new keeper league where do you slot him? Up with the top studs or do you have him ranked a little lower?

 

This kid is a really intriguing fantasy player and I'm curious to see what the "downside" feedback is.

 

Same as every other stud athlete...the worst case is drugs, crime, injury and incompetence or some combination thereof.

 

As for his specific physical attributes I suppose his size could be an issue, injury-wise.

[Franknbeans 46]

His value is dependent on the type of keeper league you're in. If it's PPR then I would slot him along the lines of Westbrook (and possibly higher) but non-PPR I don't see him cracking the Top 15 unless of course, Deuce gets injured, which has been known to happen. Long term I really don't see him as a 3 down back but his receiving skills are what will set him a apart from a typical RBBC running back.

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 40]

Do you think that's because Deuce will be there or because Bush just won't handle that area in general?

 

Even if Duece goes down, I don't see him getting the GL carries. He isn't a power back. See Westbrook, Dunn, etc.

[What is the deal? 1]

Downside= Eric Metcalf

 

Oh wait, that's where I see him at anyways...

[jstraza 0]

I appreciate this thread is asking for all the downside, but the whole angle that he is to small is ridiculous. The guy benched more reps than many LBs did. He is made of pure muscle. I am not here to proclaim him as the next coming of greatness. However, how big are LT, Priest, or Faulk? His weight is not going to be an issue.

[toofunny 0]

I appreciate this thread is asking for all the downside, but the whole angle that he is to small is ridiculous. The guy benched more reps than many LBs did. He is made of pure muscle. I am not here to proclaim him as the next coming of greatness. However, how big are LT, Priest, or Faulk? His weight is not going to be an issue.

 

His strength doesn't matter. But there's a key point to it. When you're looking for studs, look at the players desire to be great.

 

Lets look at White vs Bush. Forget the physical aspects, college careers. Who has a stronger desire to be the greatest RB ever in the NFL? Clearly it's Bush. He went beyond what is normally required to prepare for the pro days (as his bench press shows). He's extremely focused. White lacked many of these things. White might want to be great, but clearly it burns in Bush.

 

A good example is Tiki Barber. And on the flip side you have Ron Dayne. Tiki has a fire to be great. It drives him during the season, and in the offseason. Dayne was a great college back, but has yet to amount to jack. Does Dayne strike you as a guy who burns with desire to be the best RB in the NFL? He seems more like "If it happens it happens". TO burns with desire to be great. Manning. LT. Harrison. SS.

 

Lots of guys have loads of talent. Everyone in the NFL is talented. It's the mental side that separates players. Tiki isn't the fastest RB in the NFL. He isn't the biggest RB in the NFL. But his preparation and desire are his edge over others.

 

Anyway I think Bush has that kind of makeup, work ethic, and desire.

[Super Cubs 154]

I just don't see him being able to move the chains when it really matters. I think he'll have his own highlite show on ESPN. But I don't see him as a great short yardage RB. He's more the type to have several long runs and get stuffed on 3rd and 1.

[9-Route 0]

i think his biggest obstacle might be deuce's health---as in if he is unable to play.

 

we saw ronnie brown have a very nice rookie season both running and receiving due to the correct diet of touches (both carries and recs). ricky's availability had a lot to do with this. each racked up 600-800yds and some scores, and each had games where they were the heavy hitter (100yds).

 

i recall some nice balance for lj and holmes during a stretch last season(miami game on a friday, in particular, where each guy had 90+yds, and 1-2 scores). this would be ideal in sean payton's offense---having deuce and reggie to deploy in a perfect blend/mix of plays and situations, and have the freedom to stick with a guy who is seeing the holes better on a given day and let him rack up 100-2.

 

if deuce is hampered, reggie gets overworked and maybe his attributes dont show up every play, or every other play. this could lead to his confidence being shaken (we saw this when he lateraled that weird ball at the end of a big run in the chmpshp game---he was down and out for a while after that play). as mentioned, his expectations were already high; as a saint, they will be even higher in an effort to "help revitalize the stricken community".

 

i agree they didnt draft him as a tinker toy for 3rd downs and punt returns. sean payton is pretty good coach and innovator. he made some average skilled giants look very good offensively in a lot of stretch runs in seasons under fassel; he also has squeezed a lot from the dallas offense under parcells. he will find a good balance with brees/deuce/bush/horn/stallworth.

 

bush should be fine. i expect 800-7/8 minimum; if he is all we want/expect/predict, perhaps 1000+/10+.

[TerrySilver 0]

here's something about reggie bush i just learned; he had a 4.0 gpa in college. not sure if he graduated with a 4.0 though.

 

 

what does this mean with regards to his performance in the nfl? probaly nothing at all, but i just thought it was and interesting factoid