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sabtoker

Everybody knows the top 3 RBs & top 3 QBs, BUT...

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I pick at the turn .........14th and 15th.........

 

WRs get 1 point for each reception (RBs do not)

6pt = TD

1pt = 10 Rec yds

3pt = > 100yds

 

I plan on going WR/WR

 

My top 3 are:

 

S. Smith

L. Fitz

T.O.

 

Who is your top 3 WRs and why?

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Owens

Smith

Johnson

 

Owens is 2 years removed from a TD per game average(85 yds/week as well) could easily revert to that form

 

Smith is abused in the Panthers offense, too many touches not to do well

 

Palmer is touted as one of if not the best QB, his #1 WR by rule has to benefit from that

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I like T.O., Smith, and Fitz as well, but since you get 1 point for receptions, i'd have to take fitz out and put in Holt. AZ will have so many targets available, Holt is the main target in StL. I like chad too, but with palmer gimpy, even not sure if he will start the season, i wouldn't take him before the third round.

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With WR's favored like that I would too.

 

I have Smith Holt & Fitz then CJ as my top 4.

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Interesting question. The WR ranks change dramatically every year. The top 3 WRs are very hard to predict. In my league last year (non-PPR) it was Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, and Chad Johnson. Very few people's predictions had 2 of those guys in their top 3, let alone all of them.

 

So what does it take to be top 3? Let's look at some factors:

Health

Smith, Fitz, and Johnson all stayed healthy last year. Terrell Owens and Torry Holt ranked #1 and #3 in points per game, but missed significant time.

Lack of competition in for targets

This was the secrete for Smith, who caught 39% of Carolina's passes, on a team that had little else in terms of WRs and TEs. But Johnson did it despite being on a team with a productive #2 WR and 3rd-down back, he only caught 28% of Cincy's passes. Fitzgerald, lining up with Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson, only caught 25% of Arizona's passes (one more catch than Boldin).

Passing a lot

This is what did it for Fitzgerald, as Arizona threw by far the most passes in the league. And Johnson's Bengals were 5th in attempts. But Carolina ranked in the bottom half of the league (17th) in pass attempts. Still, it's probably safe to say a team that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league or so in pass attempts won't produce a top 3 WR.

Effective quarterback play

This was the story for Johnson. His QB completed 67% of his passes and was 2nd in passer rating, making the most of his attempts. Smith's QB only completed 60% but ranked a respectable 12th in QB rating. Fitzgerald managed with medicore QB play, though.

Talent

Talent really belongs first. But it's harder to quantify. You could argue all day about who the most talented WRs are. But if you want to finish top 3 there's one thing I think you can say for sure: you have to be very talented, and you also have to be the team's best receiving target in the red zone. Smith, Fitz, and Johnson all fit that bill.

Red zone philosophy

A top 3 WR's team doesn't have to be obsessive about throwing to WRs in the red zone, but it's safe to say it's not going to happen on a team that has tremendous confidence in their goal line rushing (KC, Den, Atl)

 

So, in conclusion, there's more than one way to skin a cat. Smith, Fitzgerald, and Johnson each had a different factor that set them apart from most of the rest of the league. But what all three of them had in common is that they stayed healthy and were their QB's best red zone target.

 

When I get a chance later, I'll comment on who I think the candidates for top 3 are...

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Pending a healthy Kurt Warner and a healthy Marc Bulger.

 

:banana:

 

Pending a healthy Kurt Warner and a healthy Marc Bulger.

 

I am crying all over my keyborad...

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Interesting question. The WR ranks change dramatically every year. The top 3 WRs are very hard to predict. In my league last year (non-PPR) it was Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, and Chad Johnson. Very few people's predictions had 2 of those guys in their top 3, let alone all of them.

 

So what does it take to be top 3? Let's look at some factors:

Health

Smith, Fitz, and Johnson all stayed healthy last year. Terrell Owens and Torry Holt ranked #1 and #3 in points per game, but missed significant time.

Lack of competition in for targets

This was the secrete for Smith, who caught 39% of Carolina's passes, on a team that had little else in terms of WRs and TEs. But Johnson did it despite being on a team with a productive #2 WR and 3rd-down back, he only caught 28% of Cincy's passes. Fitzgerald, lining up with Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson, only caught 25% of Arizona's passes (one more catch than Boldin).

Passing a lot

This is what did it for Fitzgerald, as Arizona threw by far the most passes in the league. And Johnson's Bengals were 5th in attempts. But Carolina ranked in the bottom half of the league (17th) in pass attempts. Still, it's probably safe to say a team that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league or so in pass attempts won't produce a top 3 WR.

Effective quarterback play

This was the story for Johnson. His QB completed 67% of his passes and was 2nd in passer rating, making the most of his attempts. Smith's QB only completed 60% but ranked a respectable 12th in QB rating. Fitzgerald managed with medicore QB play, though.

Talent

Talent really belongs first. But it's harder to quantify. You could argue all day about who the most talented WRs are. But if you want to finish top 3 there's one thing I think you can say for sure: you have to be very talented, and you also have to be the team's best receiving target in the red zone. Smith, Fitz, and Johnson all fit that bill.

Red zone philosophy

A top 3 WR's team doesn't have to be obsessive about throwing to WRs in the red zone, but it's safe to say it's not going to happen on a team that has tremendous confidence in their goal line rushing (KC, Den, Atl)

 

So, in conclusion, there's more than one way to skin a cat. Smith, Fitzgerald, and Johnson each had a different factor that set them apart from most of the rest of the league. But what all three of them had in common is that they stayed healthy and were their QB's best red zone target.

 

When I get a chance later, I'll comment on who I think the candidates for top 3 are...

 

 

Spoken like a true geek :unsure:

 

My thoughts this year:

 

Mr. Gouldy Mouf himself CJ

 

and then I like to think Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss are going to surprise... (safer picks would be TO and Fitz, but I'm not a fan of taking Smith as high in the draft as his ADP reflects...

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Interesting question. The WR ranks change dramatically every year. The top 3 WRs are very hard to predict. In my league last year (non-PPR) it was Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, and Chad Johnson. Very few people's predictions had 2 of those guys in their top 3, let alone all of them.

 

So what does it take to be top 3? Let's look at some factors:

Health

Smith, Fitz, and Johnson all stayed healthy last year. Terrell Owens and Torry Holt ranked #1 and #3 in points per game, but missed significant time.

Lack of competition in for targets

This was the secrete for Smith, who caught 39% of Carolina's passes, on a team that had little else in terms of WRs and TEs. But Johnson did it despite being on a team with a productive #2 WR and 3rd-down back, he only caught 28% of Cincy's passes. Fitzgerald, lining up with Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson, only caught 25% of Arizona's passes (one more catch than Boldin).

Passing a lot

This is what did it for Fitzgerald, as Arizona threw by far the most passes in the league. And Johnson's Bengals were 5th in attempts. But Carolina ranked in the bottom half of the league (17th) in pass attempts. Still, it's probably safe to say a team that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league or so in pass attempts won't produce a top 3 WR.

Effective quarterback play

This was the story for Johnson. His QB completed 67% of his passes and was 2nd in passer rating, making the most of his attempts. Smith's QB only completed 60% but ranked a respectable 12th in QB rating. Fitzgerald managed with medicore QB play, though.

Talent

Talent really belongs first. But it's harder to quantify. You could argue all day about who the most talented WRs are. But if you want to finish top 3 there's one thing I think you can say for sure: you have to be very talented, and you also have to be the team's best receiving target in the red zone. Smith, Fitz, and Johnson all fit that bill.

Red zone philosophy

A top 3 WR's team doesn't have to be obsessive about throwing to WRs in the red zone, but it's safe to say it's not going to happen on a team that has tremendous confidence in their goal line rushing (KC, Den, Atl)

 

So, in conclusion, there's more than one way to skin a cat. Smith, Fitzgerald, and Johnson each had a different factor that set them apart from most of the rest of the league. But what all three of them had in common is that they stayed healthy and were their QB's best red zone target.

 

When I get a chance later, I'll comment on who I think the candidates for top 3 are...

 

 

Thanks for the insight ..........good ###### ...... :lol:

 

So who is your top 3???

 

Does it change with 1 pt. for receptions????

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TO

Smith

MOss

chad

 

I think so because TO will have a monster year with Dallas and because Moss will break out....smith will be smith

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moss (38tds past 45 games=.84td/G)

TO (20tds past 21 games=.95td/G)

marvin (7 STRAIGHT 10+td seasons; 89tds past 110 games=.81td/G)

 

that says it all.

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smith

moss

holt

 

no way i go with CJ this year with Palmer hobbling like Kaiser Soze. Fitz and Anquan will drop off since the Cards will NOT throw 600 times this year. And Ownes, as good as he is, will be suffocated in the Parcells Offense.

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Steve Smith is a top 3 Wr this year The addition of Keyshawn makes him that much more dangerous b/c teams won't be able to have like 3-4 DB's trying to account for him, I'll also toss in TO for sure and CJ with Fitz/Holt right behind.

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1. Steve Smith addition of Meshawn will help. The run game has questions and frailty associated to it so look for them to air it out...a lot.

 

2. Fitzgerald. Team should blow up offensively and since they have no defense, you know they will be involved in some shoot outs. Why Fitz over Bouldin though....simple: Third Year.

 

3. Chad Johnson. This of course is if Palmer looks good in pre-season.

 

 

side note: TO just missed because Parcells just does nt call passing plays as much as Philly does. There will be less opportunities. The division is pretty tough too. I did not take TO out because the attitude problems.

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To me, there is no "top 3 WR's" this year - there's a top 6, which are almost completely interchangeable, IMO...

 

Terrell Owens

Randy Moss

Marvin Harrison

Chad Johnson

Larry Fitzgerald

Steve Smith

 

Harrison may be the only one that there isn't a great argument that he should be #1, but I think that after that he's almost interchangeable with any of the others...

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So who is your top 3???

 

Does it change with 1 pt. for receptions????

 

My top three is:

-Chad Johnson

-Marvin Harrison

-Terrell Owens

 

Johnson and Harrison because their passing games are so damn good. I am drinking the Carson Palmer kool aid and I like CJ's touchdown numbers to go up to 12+. I think defenses will respect Housh a little more this year. His yardage is already there and I don't see it dropping off with Johnson and Houshmandzadeh being so much better than the Bengals' extra WR options. Harrison quietly put up #5 numbers on a team that only ranked 15th in pass attempts. I look for the Colts to have more of an 11-5 season rather than last year's 13-0 start, and combined with the loss of Edge, they will throw more. And make no mistake, Marvin is still the man in the red zone.

TO I put behind them because I think Drew Bledsoe is a check-down type of quarterback and he won't hesitate to check off of Owens when he sees double-coverage. And Owens is a bit of an injury risk. But Owens is still going to get his touchdowns on a good offense. Even if Bledsoe goes down he will still get his.

 

I don't play in any PPR leagues and as such I don't do any projecting based on PPR but, I will say that these are three guys that I don't expect to be lagging behind in the receptions department.

 

From last year's top 3:

-I dropped Steve Smith out because I don't think they will have to rely on him nearly as much as they did last year. When you look at 39% of passes having been thrown his way, that's not going to happen with Keyshawn in town, unlike last year's garbage at #2 and #3 WR. Plus with Keyshawn's run-blocking and a healthy defense to start the year, I think the Panthers are going to be able to run more (which you know they want to), which I think will drop them out of the top 20 in terms of pass attempts. Also, his hammy. I don't see him staying 100% healthy this year, he relies on quickness so much that it's a lot of strain and a lot of risk on his muscles.

-I dropped Larry Fitzgerald out because of QB concerns. Warner is such an injury risk, especially with that o-line, and I don't think Leinart as a rookie will be as effective as McCown was last year. But, Warner was better than McCown, so if he stays healthy the potential is there for improvement in this passing game. A possible top 3 for Fitz but I wouldn't bank on it. Although better than McCown's, Warner's performance was not on an elite level and I don't think the ridiculous number of attempts is going to be there to make up for it this year.

 

Others commented on in this thread:

-Torry Holt has too many questions IMO about the offense. I like Scott Linehan but Holt was perfect for the Martz offense and I think Linehan will try to protect Bulger more. If he doesn't, Bulger is going to go down again and that will be that for Holt's top 3 chances anyway. Still, I love Holt, he is a such a polished player, and won't be too far off the top 3.

-Reggie Wayne may get more catches than Harrison when all is said and done but I can't see him competing with Marvin in terms of touchdowns.

-I would love nothing more than to see Randy Moss in the top 3, as a big Raider fan and Moss fan before he joined us. But I think there are too many questions with Brooks. Moss as a red zone target is a question, he's so dangerous with the fade pattern but that's mostly it. Kerry Collins couldn't throw the fade... can Brooks? Plus there is injury concern. I don't see him catching 90+ passes. In a non-PPR, he's got a decent chance at top 3, but too many questions for me to actually predict it.

 

A couple of dark horses:

-I think Donald Driver will make it close, he is an underrated player and Favre is going to rely on him big time. But for Driver to get up there, Favre is going to have to play better and improve from 20 TD passes to about 30.

-I think Darrell Jackson is a great dark horse but right now he is a huge question mark because of his knee. If (big if) he is able to get close to 100% by the start of the season and stay healthy, he is in for a big year. With Jurevicious gone he will be Hasselbeck's main man in the red zone. The other big concern is Shaun Alexander so even if he was healthy I wouldn't pick Jackson top 3, but I do look for the Hawks to pass a lot more this year. Jackson and Hasselbeck are both underrated IMO but I would rank them as arguably the 3rd-best QB-WR combo in the league after Manning/Harrison and Palmer/Johnson (NFL-wise as opposed to fantasy-wise).

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I forgot to add Roy Williams as a strong candidate. I don't like him quite enough to pick him to be top 3, but he's got a shot. He'll be far and away the top wideout in Detroit, and he has the physical talent although maybe not quite the hands. We can be pretty sure that Kitna/McCown will use him early and often, but we don't know how effectively they will use him, if they will have any chemistry. The other thing going against him IMO is that the Lions should have a pretty good defense. However, Mike Martz' offense may offset the defense factor by taking chances and by not controlling the clock, and giving Roy lots of chances as a result.

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Im liking Owens, R Moss, and Smith this year as the top 3, in that order (pending Owens keeps it together and plays a whole season).

 

Randy goes nutz this year. Im banking on getting Portis and R Moss with my 1st 2 picks......CJ, Smith, and maybe Holt will be drafted before Moss, leaving him to me. Dang it!!!!! :banana:

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