To all my fellow 4th pick holders!

[avandradejr 0]

What are you going to do? I have a feel for what I want, but I want to build some kind of consensus, just for curiosity. I am one of the many who was going to take Portis hands down, but not so certain now. At the moment, SJax is my pick...then later I will flip over to Ronnie Brown, then back to SJax. What a bad year to be 4th.

 

I may have some luck fly my way though. There is a chance the owner at #3 might take Peyton. If that happens, well then of course I have no issues being 4th. Ugh...then snake back around though, do you take the best WR on the board? Or try to get your RB situation taken care of first?

 

I've been playing for about 7 years now, and this is the first year where I am constantly questioning myself.

 

If nothing else, I am a Rams fan and will make the homer pick at 4 and go Sjax.

[dogbert 0]

I don't know why everyone is so scared of taking Tiki 4th. Yes he is a year older, but at the end of last year he was a machine, and singlehandley carried a guy to our league championship. If I had the fourth pick, he would be my guy. He catches a lot of passes, and even if his goal line carries are vultured, he still usually breaks a long one. Take Tiki at the 4th spot, a top receiver in the 2nd. Then in the 3rd and 4th go running back. There's some decent value at running back in those rounds. Hope this helps.

[avandradejr 0]

I don't know why everyone is so scared of taking Tiki 4th. Yes he is a year older, but at the end of last year he was a machine, and singlehandley carried a guy to our league championship. If I had the fourth pick, he would be my guy. He catches a lot of passes, and even if his goal line carries are vultured, he still usually breaks a long one. Take Tiki at the 4th spot, a top receiver in the 2nd. Then in the 3rd and 4th go running back. There's some decent value at running back in those rounds. Hope this helps.

 

 

Thats funny you say that. I am one of those that shy's away from Tiki as well. But thats been every year for me, he's just one of those guys thats never found his way onto my roster. I'll put that in the thought process. Thanks for your advice!!!

[Phurfur 70]

There was a tread like this a few days ago, check it out.

[jstraza 0]

I was 100% sold on Portis and fine with the 4th pick. Now I am between Tiki and S Jax. In the 2nd it depends on the quality of WR that is there. If there is still a top 5 guy I will go that direction as the RBs will be depleted by then. I don't think Manning would still be there but if he was I would look at him as well.

[Slick20 0]

My draft is Saturday and I was going to pick Portis for sure and then he had to get hurt. I'm undecided I might still pick Portis and cross my fingers. Tikki is a good option but his schedule is brutal and I don't think he'll match his numbers from last year. SJax is on my list as well, with Martz gone his numbers should increase nicely. Overall I'm not sure.

[cmac13 0]

Take Ronnie Brown and don't look back.

[Mack Daddy 0]

Take Jackson!!!! Barber is too risky at #4 IMO, having goaline carries vultured by Jacobs. Yes, I know he scored 12 or so TD's last year but it was a career year. I see Jacobs playing more of a role for the G Men this year..

 

Back to Jackson... Plays the Niners twice and the Cards twice. He will also be the focal point of that offense now that the Rams will actually try to have a running game. Jackson hands down IMO, and I wouldn't think twice about it... Your a Rams homer, so you are probably just waaaay overthinking this thing.

[avandradejr 0]

Take Jackson!!!! Barber is too risky at #4 IMO, having goaline carries vultured by Jacobs. Yes, I know he scored 12 or so TD's last year but it was a career year. I see Jacobs playing more of a role for the G Men this year..

 

Back to Jackson... Plays the Niners twice and the Cards twice. He will also be the focal point of that offense now that the Rams will actually try to have a running game. Jackson hands down IMO, and I wouldn't think twice about it... Your a Rams homer, so you are probably just waaaay overthinking this thing.

 

 

Super, this is what I needed ( errr, wanted to hear ) I have no more conviction, SJax it is!!!! Unless some one screws up in the first 3 picks of course.

[ricanrockers 39]

Take Ronnie Brown and don't look back.

 

I've been reading some nice things on Ronnie Brown. My pick was going to be Portis but some are saying he will not be 100% the whole season. I've also read that Betts will take the load off Portis this season. Portis fantasy numbers are going to take a hit.

 

The #4 pick will be between Tiki, Jax or Brown.

[Sho Nuff 720]

Take Jackson!!!! Barber is too risky at #4 IMO, having goaline carries vultured by Jacobs. Yes, I know he scored 12 or so TD's last year but it was a career year. I see Jacobs playing more of a role for the G Men this year..

 

Back to Jackson... Plays the Niners twice and the Cards twice. He will also be the focal point of that offense now that the Rams will actually try to have a running game. Jackson hands down IMO, and I wouldn't think twice about it... Your a Rams homer, so you are probably just waaaay overthinking this thing.

 

 

FYI...the Cards were 10th in the league against the run last year...though they did give up alot of TDs.

[ffdomino 0]

FYI...the Cards were 10th in the league against the run last year...though they did give up alot of TDs.

 

NFC West out of division opponents are the NFC North. Green Bay, Vikes, and Detroit....tis gold in them that hills for S Jax.

[yodaday 0]

I would go for Manning. At least he's a sure thing.

[PaintGuru 0]

I'm with you, I almost vomited in my mouth when I came up with the 4th pick. I'm between Tiki and SJax, and here is my "expert" analysis.

 

Tiki: Old, smaller, does not get goal line carries (in fact, I think I recall an interview with him where he said he would be seeing less goal line carries). Does catch a few balls, though (we get 0.5 pts/recep). By far the harder division

 

SJax: Young, big, no one to take carries from him at the goal line. Also catches some balls. Easier division and a good passing game to open things up for him.

 

 

Right now I am leaning toward SJax. May be a bit high for him (if I could trade down, I would), but there are few other choices out there that look good at #4. Second round will be a joy as well trying to figure out who to take. Good luck.

[lurking good 0]

i've got the 4th and i'm seriously considering Manning. Our scoring awards 6 pts for tds for all positions. I'm just having a hrd time seeing how any RB i pick at #4 will give me any advantage over the RB being picked at the 8-10 pick. I figure Manning could give me a 5-10 TD advantage over the next best QB. I know coming back I'll be stuck with Dillon/Foster/KJones type rb for my #1. I also get to keep Chester taylor which is no big consolation. i just think you have to seperate yourself somehwre this year and if you don't have a top 3 pick then youre not going to find that seperation at RB. And i know all the 'rules' and have been playing FF for 15 years. I used to draft QBS waaaay late and scoop up RBs and WRs but now it seems everyone does that due to all the info via the web. It feels like its time to reverse the trend if you want any advantage.

[ffdomino 0]

I think we have all seen what Tiki is capably of. Unfortunately I do not think his best is 4th over all stuff. S.Jax offers more risk/reward and may shine this year without Mike Martz ruining things. Just look at his schedule. They will be playing until the end with Seattle in their division. There will be some shootouts and blowouts with my Niners and Arizona in the mix.

Raiders week 15 helps too...

 

Broncos

@ 49ers

@ Cardinals

Lions

@ Packers

Seahawks

Bye

@ Chargers

Chiefs

@ Seahawks

@ Panthers

49ers

Cardinals

Bears

Washington

@ Minnesota

[Beezer025 0]

Here’s what I plan on doing:

 

Even though I feel SJAX will be more productive than last year, and Tiki will most likely not put up better numbers than last year, still see Tiki as the man here and plan on picking him up.

 

HOWEVER, Im working on a trade with the guy who has the 11th pick for his 2nd round pick. Im offering him my 4th and 5th round picks for his 2nd round pick (14th overall) If he agrees then Im taking Manning at 4 (my league gives 6 points for QB TD’s) and I’ll have an early 2nd round pick so I don’t have to compromise my RB Position by taking Peyton, and yeah my WR’s could take a hit without a 4th and 5th rounder, but I have Donald Driver secured as a keeper.

[bartnkoda 0]

well the portis injury certainly causes some concern with the 4 pick, as I too was ready to snag him. Same boat as yourself going between tiki and s-jax. you know tiki will still have a good year, but he is one of those guys i seem to never want on my team and then am pissed that i passedon him. this year i think the upside with jackson is greater with the new balanced system and opponents the rams face. rounds 2 and on will be challenging at the 4 spot in the serpentine draft. just feel like i'm going to be reaching at players (we start 2rb, 2wr, 1 flex rb/wr, 1qb, 1 te, 1 d, 1k) thru-out the draft. arghh

[wildbluefan 0]

I just found out that I have won ("lost"!) the #4 pick in a big money league ! But , my problem is this league is a BIG TD league (10 points each) and has NO PPR ! In my mind, what's left of it , this elevates SJAX AND maybe even RUDI Johnson ahead of TIKI, who appears to have the TD vulture (Jacobs) flying around his head ! Plus, TIKI's brutal schedule concerns me , as well !

[iceblumist610 0]

10 team or 12? I drafted a 10 team yesterday. I really wanted Ronnie Brown, but his average position was way lower than SJax, so I picked SJax and hoped he'd be around at 2.7. He was, so I got them both. If he hadn't been, I would've picked a receiver with my 2.7 pick. So...that's my advice to you too. Take a RB first (duh). If a RB you really like slips to the second round, take him, and if not, take a WR.

[avandradejr 0]

10 team or 12? I drafted a 10 team yesterday. I really wanted Ronnie Brown, but his average position was way lower than SJax, so I picked SJax and hoped he'd be around at 2.7. He was, so I got them both. If he hadn't been, I would've picked a receiver with my 2.7 pick. So...that's my advice to you too. Take a RB first (duh). If a RB you really like slips to the second round, take him, and if not, take a WR.

 

It's a 10 team league. When I take Sjax in the first, and Ronnie Brown is still there at 2.7, I'd be estatic....but I dont think that will happen unless WR, and a few QB's fly off the board early.

[NJJoe20 0]

T. Barber is contemplating retirement after the season, hopefully that means he has fully dedicated himself to running through NFL defenses one final time. Check out his stats from the past few seasons, imo, passing on him would be a huge mistake in this spot. My gut tells me that the ridiculous numbers of carries has caught up to LT, and Tiki will outperform him this season. The only problem with Tiki as the #4 pick, is the lack of a certified handcuff. I don't think Jacobs has what it takes to be an every down back.

 

Season Team Att Yard TD Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2004 NYG 322 1,518 13 52 578 2 295.6 18.5

2005 NYG 357 1,860 9 54 530 2 303.0 18.9

 

If these numbers do not impress, the production you get out of Ronnie Brown/Jackson with this pick certainly will not.

[iceblumist610 0]

It's a 10 team league. When I take Sjax in the first, and Ronnie Brown is still there at 2.7, I'd be estatic....but I dont think that will happen unless WR, and a few QB's fly off the board early.

 

Yeah, I didn't expect it, and was ecstatic as well. I liked Brown only slightly more than Jackson though, and Brown's ADP was FAR lower, so I went Jax and prayed that Brown would stay late. Fortunately, there was an early 2nd round run on WRs. And I still got Chambers at 3.4 anyway.

[avandradejr 0]

T. Barber is contemplating retirement after the season, hopefully that means he has fully dedicated himself to running through NFL defenses one final time. Check out his stats from the past few seasons, imo, passing on him would be a huge mistake in this spot. My gut tells me that the ridiculous numbers of carries has caught up to LT, and Tiki will outperform him this season. The only problem with Tiki as the #4 pick, is the lack of a certified handcuff. I don't think Jacobs has what it takes to be an every down back.

 

Season Team Att Yard TD Rec Yard TD FFPts FFPts/G

2004 NYG 322 1,518 13 52 578 2 295.6 18.5

2005 NYG 357 1,860 9 54 530 2 303.0 18.9

 

If these numbers do not impress, the production you get out of Ronnie Brown/Jackson with this pick certainly will not.

 

 

Those numbers do impress me, and I bet a few others as well, but for those years....If you take those out of the equation, and go by "upside" ( I know thats a curse word around here ) then people might be better off with Sjax or RBrown this year, also considering the division and schedules of each player as well.

 

Yep, it sure is fun being the proud owner of pick number 4

[mkuz 0]

10 team or 12? I drafted a 10 team yesterday. I really wanted Ronnie Brown, but his average position was way lower than SJax, so I picked SJax and hoped he'd be around at 2.7. He was, so I got them both. If he hadn't been, I would've picked a receiver with my 2.7 pick. So...that's my advice to you too. Take a RB first (duh). If a RB you really like slips to the second round, take him, and if not, take a WR.

 

 

this is what i hope to do with the 8th pick in a 10 teamer. i really think both will be there and if not i will get one of the 2 and a top wr. the late picks arent that bad this year.

[Shakespeare 0]

Tiki - Safest pick. Has proven that he will consistently put up very good numbers. Also catches a lot of balls. Jacobs will give you headaches though, which is why as soon as I see evidence out of D.C. that Portis is ready, I'm dropping Tiki back down to #5.

 

Portis - I'm not ready to drop him any further than #5. I've seen a number of former NFL'ers who say this injury is being blown out of proportion. The latest word off the wire is that he's already rehabbing it (I can provide a link if necessary) so this tells me that his injury isn't as bad as everyone's making it out to be.

 

S-Jax - Okay, looks like a beast in the making, right? I agree. Still, he hasn't proven himself year in and year out like Tiki and Portis. It's been said that you won't win your league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose your league with it. Given this reality, I'll always take the steady sure thing over the potential stud in the making. Sure, I always tend to draft conservatively. But... I always tend to win*

[Rounders00 0]

Portis - I'm not ready to drop him any further than #5. I've seen a number of former NFL'ers who say this injury is being blown out of proportion. The latest word off the wire is that he's already rehabbing it (I can provide a link if necessary) so this tells me that his injury isn't as bad as everyone's making it out to be.

 

Shakespeare, can you pleaes provide a link for this? I would be interested in reading the article.

 

TIA

[solorman 0]

Tiki - Safest pick. Has proven that he will consistently put up very good numbers. Also catches a lot of balls. Jacobs will give you headaches though, which is why as soon as I see evidence out of D.C. that Portis is ready, I'm dropping Tiki back down to #5.

 

Portis - I'm not ready to drop him any further than #5. I've seen a number of former NFL'ers who say this injury is being blown out of proportion. The latest word off the wire is that he's already rehabbing it (I can provide a link if necessary) so this tells me that his injury isn't as bad as everyone's making it out to be.

 

S-Jax - Okay, looks like a beast in the making, right? I agree. Still, he hasn't proven himself year in and year out like Tiki and Portis. It's been said that you won't win your league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose your league with it. Given this reality, I'll always take the steady sure thing over the potential stud in the making. Sure, I always tend to draft conservatively. But... I always tend to win*

 

Exactly right. S-Jax reminds me of the potential of one Duece McAllister last year. Remember how McAllister was going in pick #4 or #5 and looked like a beast in the making even though he hadn't proven himself year in and year out. Yea, I picked him too but this year I'm going to draft more conservative in the first round.....

[ffdomino 0]

I we would like a link? Really? Do we really have to say hurry the fock up and post that shiat? If so...

 

HURRY THE FOCK UP AND POST THAT SHIAT!!!!

[avandradejr 0]

Tiki - Safest pick. Has proven that he will consistently put up very good numbers. Also catches a lot of balls. Jacobs will give you headaches though, which is why as soon as I see evidence out of D.C. that Portis is ready, I'm dropping Tiki back down to #5.

 

Portis - I'm not ready to drop him any further than #5. I've seen a number of former NFL'ers who say this injury is being blown out of proportion. The latest word off the wire is that he's already rehabbing it (I can provide a link if necessary) so this tells me that his injury isn't as bad as everyone's making it out to be.

 

S-Jax - Okay, looks like a beast in the making, right? I agree. Still, he hasn't proven himself year in and year out like Tiki and Portis. It's been said that you won't win your league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose your league with it. Given this reality, I'll always take the steady sure thing over the potential stud in the making. Sure, I always tend to draft conservatively. But... I always tend to win*

 

 

Thank you Shakespear, this was very informative.

[mobb_deep 919]

Tiki - Safest pick. Has proven that he will consistently put up very good numbers. Also catches a lot of balls. Jacobs will give you headaches though, which is why as soon as I see evidence out of D.C. that Portis is ready, I'm dropping Tiki back down to #5.

 

Portis - I'm not ready to drop him any further than #5. I've seen a number of former NFL'ers who say this injury is being blown out of proportion. The latest word off the wire is that he's already rehabbing it (I can provide a link if necessary) so this tells me that his injury isn't as bad as everyone's making it out to be.

 

S-Jax - Okay, looks like a beast in the making, right? I agree. Still, he hasn't proven himself year in and year out like Tiki and Portis. It's been said that you won't win your league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose your league with it. Given this reality, I'll always take the steady sure thing over the potential stud in the making. Sure, I always tend to draft conservatively. But... I always tend to win*

 

Exactly

 

Is Tiki one year older, yes. Will he see a slight drop off from the last 2 years numbers, maybe. The truth still remains that he's been a top 5 back 3 of the last 4 years. He was banged up half of 2001 (missed two complete and didn't start 5 others) and wasn't even carrying the load in 2000 (anyone remember "Thunder and Lightning"?). So we've got a 31 year old back who's carried the load for 4 years of his NFL career, been a top 5 rusher 3 of those 4, and has not missed a single game in that span. If that isn't the type of back you want to use a early 1st rounder on I don't know who is.

 

Now I'm not saying whether or not I'd take Tiki over Portis as I don't think the Portis injury is all that serious and I've gone back and forth between the two myself (even before the injury). However I do think the people going with SJax (and especially Ronnie) are taking a pretty big risk for what seems to me like little reward.

 

The only thing that even remotely would weigh on my mind if I was a Tiki owner would be his schedule. Lets take a look.

 

2005 (best performance against division team)

 

WAS - 24 for 206 and 1

PHI - 32 for 124 and 5 rec. for 71 and 1 TD

DAL - 30 for 115

 

It looks like he didn't have that hard of a time running against any of those teams last year. He had 130 combined his other games against WAS, and PHI but only 70 against DAL.

 

This year his out of division games are against the following... indy, sea, atl, tampa, hou, chi, jax, ten, car, nola. Aside from the Chicago, and Carolina games nothing really strikes fear except maybe that Tampa game. Indy, Sea, and Atl can all be run against and that Nola game in week 16 is money if you make it that far.

 

I really don't think you can go wrong with either Portis or Tiki this year.

[Mack Daddy 0]

To me personally, I think Sjax and Brown are the safer picks at 4. Both will be FEATURED backs with a lot less question marks than Barber and Portis.

 

Tiki has even said himself in interviews that he will be giving up goaline carries to Jacobs. Portis is a risk no matter what anyone tries to tell me about the severity of his injury. The guys shoulder came out of place for crying out loud and with the pounding these RB's take, he will be suceptible to it again this year. For that reason alone, I think Portis is too big of a risk at 4. Worth the risk later in the first round, but not worth the risk when Sjax and Brown are still on the board.

 

Sjax and Brown, to me, are by far the safer choices at #4.... Just my two cents.

[Shakespeare 0]

Initially, Portis was supposed to rest a full week before beginning any kind of rehab. It only took him 3 days. This is a positive sign. Quote (and link) below.

 

"Meanwhile, running back Clinton Portis has begun some mild rehab on his separated left shoulder. The workload will increase dramatically this time next week, Tyer said, and "we think we've a shot to get him back (for the opener).""

 

http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story...8&ran=69221

[jrokh 574]

I think many of you are putting too much stock in Tiki's brutal schedule. Not all the teams that were good defenses last year will be good this year. Also the G-Men have a good offense with many weapons, so Defenses can't focus on tiki or they will get burned by buress or shockey. I know Tiki himself saying don't draft me in fantasy is scaring you but he also said earlier in training camp that Eli is going to rely on him as the safety valve much more this year.

 

The bottom line is if you have the #4 pick and the big three are gone and you draft s-jax or ronnie brown over tiki, I can't say you are a moron but you may have severe and limited intellectual capacity.

[murf74 461]

I think many of you are putting too much stock in Tiki's brutal schedule. Not all the teams that were good defenses last year will be good this year. Also the G-Men have a good offense with many weapons, so Defenses can't focus on tiki or they will get burned by buress or shockey. I know Tiki himself saying don't draft me in fantasy is scaring you but he also said earlier in training camp that Eli is going to rely on him as the safety valve much more this year.

 

The bottom line is if you have the #4 pick and the big three are gone and you draft s-jax or ronnie brown over tiki, I can't say you are a moron but you may have severe and limited intellectual capacity.

 

These people willing to pick 4th overall a couple guys like Sjax and Brown who have PROVEN nothing for a full 16 game season are out of their freakin minds. It's not like these guys are coming off LJ type years either. Sjax was below average.

 

It's like the last 2 years of fantasy football have totally escaped these owners. Only SA is better than Tiki over the last 2 years in fantasy production. He is money in the bank.........Sjax has a new coach, bad offensive line and a knack for getting injured every year. Brown has NEVER carried a full load even in his senior year in college.

 

Really, come on guys, Tiki almost lead the league in rushing missing by only a few carries and is always topsp in combined yards. All this and he still got double digit TDs when yielding to Jacobs the first half of the season last year at the goalline (Jacobs only had 1 TD the last 8 games of the season which is virtually irrelevant.

[ajmplaya69 0]

OK S Jax was a top 10 back last year in a PPR scoring system. There is no reason to NOT believe he wont better that under an offensive scheme targeted more towards the running game. Plus Jax has a better QB (please dont tell me Eli and his 52 % completion rate) and a better wideout crew to work with and an easier division.

[murf74 461]

OK S Jax was a top 10 back last year in a PPR scoring system. There is no reason to NOT believe he wont better that under an offensive scheme targeted more towards the running game. Plus Jax has a better QB (please dont tell me Eli and his 52 % completion rate) and a better wideout crew to work with and an easier division.

 

What was Tiki's ranking in a PPR scoring system?

 

That's what I thought.

[beefcurtain 1]

Broncos

@ 49ers

@ Cardinals

Lions

@ Packers

Seahawks

Bye

@ Chargers

Chiefs

@ Seahawks

@ Panthers

49ers

Cardinals

Bears

Washington

@ Minnesota

 

With Bears and Washington, Sjax has a tough playoff schedule.

[iceblumist610 0]

Broncos

@ 49ers

@ Cardinals

Lions

@ Packers

Seahawks

Bye

@ Chargers

Chiefs

@ Seahawks

@ Panthers

49ers

Cardinals

Bears

Washington

@ Minnesota

With Bears and Washington, Sjax has a tough playoff schedule.

 

 

But his schedule before that could get you TO the playoffs.

[ffdomino 0]

But his schedule before that could get you TO the playoffs.

 

And getting to the playoffs should be your only goal on draft day. What happens 14 weeks from now is anyone's guess....