sharkie22 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Good fiction. 97% accuracy pencils out to correctly betting 248 of the 256 regular season games played each season if this fictional expert character bet every regular season game spreads only. Actually this isn't true either because a very small percentage of games end up with no line and no posting bets due to the sportsbooks choosing not to handle them. Over/ Under bets are typically very near a 50-50 proposition so hopefully even a ficticious expert wouldn't try to claim accuracy there. If such a human existed that could correctly determine point differentials in professional football (or pee wee for that matter) they would end up being the highest paid oddsmaker in history. Their value to whomever employed them would be the sum of that "books" annual football take. Since the spreads used across the country (legal or otherwise) are less a measure of what will actually happen, rather they are the "safe" number sportsbooks use to balance the wagering on both sides of the line, it would have been better fiction for this threads originator to claim the bets being made are "money line" bets. Great fiction typically has enough truth in it to be plausible. Either that or to have claimed the bets were being made against the "throwdini" guy on ESPN's cold pizza, although I doubt 97% accuracy against a blind folded guy who throws knives at team logos on a board is likely attainable either. To understand Vegas' view on point spreads, simply read the fine print the next time you fill out a parlay card. They list the odds in winning any particular parlay in the same terms used on lottery tickets. Fortunately, at least real oddsmakers don't take the time to start ridiculous and nonsensical threads like this one. The simple truth is that any line posted is expected to yield a fifty percent likelihood whichever side the bettor takes. The closer the line is to achieving this ratio the more valuable the oddsmaker. Claiming 97% accuracy or even 75% on football betting is the same as saying a person has a technique for flipping a coin that makes it come up heads 97% of the time. This is undoubtedly the most absurd claim I have ever seen anywhere. Good fiction. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AnaheimRams 28 Posted October 20, 2006 Good fiction. 97% accuracy pencils out to correctly betting 248 of the 256 regular season games played each season if this fictional expert character bet every regular season game spreads only. Actually this isn't true either because a very small percentage of games end up with no line and no posting bets due to the sportsbooks choosing not to handle them. Over/ Under bets are typically very near a 50-50 proposition so hopefully even a ficticious expert wouldn't try to claim accuracy there. If such a human existed that could correctly determine point differentials in professional football (or pee wee for that matter) they would end up being the highest paid oddsmaker in history. Their value to whomever employed them would be the sum of that "books" annual football take. Since the spreads used across the country (legal or otherwise) are less a measure of what will actually happen, rather they are the "safe" number sportsbooks use to balance the wagering on both sides of the line, it would have been better fiction for this threads originator to claim the bets being made are "money line" bets. Great fiction typically has enough truth in it to be plausible. Either that or to have claimed the bets were being made against the "throwdini" guy on ESPN's cold pizza, although I doubt 97% accuracy against a blind folded guy who throws knives at team logos on a board is likely attainable either. To understand Vegas' view on point spreads, simply read the fine print the next time you fill out a parlay card. They list the odds in winning any particular parlay in the same terms used on lottery tickets. Fortunately, at least real oddsmakers don't take the time to start ridiculous and nonsensical threads like this one. The simple truth is that any line posted is expected to yield a fifty percent likelihood whichever side the bettor takes. The closer the line is to achieving this ratio the more valuable the oddsmaker. Claiming 97% accuracy or even 75% on football betting is the same as saying a person has a technique for flipping a coin that makes it come up heads 97% of the time. This is undoubtedly the most absurd claim I have ever seen anywhere. Good fiction. Sh!t... Does that mean I'm not getting my new Roadking? I had it all picked out and everything... Classic in Denim Black with red powdercoated wheels. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
throttlers 0 Posted October 20, 2006 I might go the other way and bet exactly opposite of these picks. If I explain to my bookie that I only have a 3% chance of winning, maybe he will give me good odds. Oh wait, 3% is way better than the chance I would usually have of winning that many games Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rdrs4life 0 Posted October 20, 2006 yeah...you guys know you are just giving this guy what he wants by even responding to this nonsense in any way. If you really think he is that pathetic, just ignore him and he will eventually go away. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sharkie22 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Sh!t... Does that mean I'm not getting my new Roadking? I had it all picked out and everything... Classic in Denim Black with red powdercoated wheels. you might still get your Roadking. You'll have almost the same chance by going with the $10,000-aire picks as you do if you pull them out of a hat. You're halfway there. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tarheel Boy 0 Posted October 20, 2006 U gotta love this tool's promise to post his picks though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Big_Pete 0 Posted October 20, 2006 LOLLOL Stop it BIG PETE...your killin me!!! YMIAFP Good fiction. 97% accuracy pencils out to correctly betting 248 of the 256 regular season games played each season if this fictional expert character bet every regular season game spreads only. Actually this isn't true either because a very small percentage of games end up with no line and no posting bets due to the sportsbooks choosing not to handle them. Over/ Under bets are typically very near a 50-50 proposition so hopefully even a ficticious expert wouldn't try to claim accuracy there. If such a human existed that could correctly determine point differentials in professional football (or pee wee for that matter) they would end up being the highest paid oddsmaker in history. Their value to whomever employed them would be the sum of that "books" annual football take. Since the spreads used across the country (legal or otherwise) are less a measure of what will actually happen, rather they are the "safe" number sportsbooks use to balance the wagering on both sides of the line, it would have been better fiction for this threads originator to claim the bets being made are "money line" bets. Great fiction typically has enough truth in it to be plausible. Either that or to have claimed the bets were being made against the "throwdini" guy on ESPN's cold pizza, although I doubt 97% accuracy against a blind folded guy who throws knives at team logos on a board is likely attainable either. To understand Vegas' view on point spreads, simply read the fine print the next time you fill out a parlay card. They list the odds in winning any particular parlay in the same terms used on lottery tickets. Fortunately, at least real oddsmakers don't take the time to start ridiculous and nonsensical threads like this one. The simple truth is that any line posted is expected to yield a fifty percent likelihood whichever side the bettor takes. The closer the line is to achieving this ratio the more valuable the oddsmaker. Claiming 97% accuracy or even 75% on football betting is the same as saying a person has a technique for flipping a coin that makes it come up heads 97% of the time. This is undoubtedly the most absurd claim I have ever seen anywhere. Good fiction. Dont let YMIAFP see this or else he'll assume you're a millionaire from sports betting and say that he is a sports better and you are making him piss himself laughing. But on a personal level, I agree with you. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Watchdog 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Here's how these hacks operate - say you call a 800 #, they give you their lock of the week, half the people get Buf and half NE, the half that lost don't call again. The other half calls the next week and half of them get team A and the other half gets team B. So after 2 weeks 25% of the people get 2 straight winners and think these guys are legit. Everyone else writes them off. The 25% that thinks they are legit then bend over and take it like the bitches that they are. Almost correct. The only part you got wrong is that more people that get the losing pick call back again than you might think. The buy into the "90% + accuracy in lock of the week picks", figure they must have just gotten unlucky with one of the 10% losers, and call back for the next one to recoup their losses. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
timr510 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Colbert so far from what i have seen everyone just rips on your picks and gives u sh i t!! But after that last monday night predicition I have been following your posts and just reading it all hoping you would say your picks for this week and i hope you do as good as last monday!! Im gonna be riding with your picks but I dont want to bet on every game i wanted to no if you could let me no which ones you think are the strongest and the ones i shuold lay the most down on. Get back to me asap thanks!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TimmySmith 2,782 Posted October 20, 2006 97% is certainly not going to happen. But a careful look over the card, and I have to say I like it. Good luck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sho Nuff 719 Posted October 20, 2006 Bet on the team in Bold Print Pittsburgh Vs. Atlanta +2.5 New England Vs. Buffalo +5.5 Carolina Vs. Cincinnati -3.5 Jacksonville Vs. Houston +9.5 San Diego Vs. Kansas City +5.5 Green Bay Vs. Miami -3.5 Detroit Vs. NY Jets -3.5 Philadelphia Vs. Tampa Bay +5 Denver Vs. Cleveland +5 Washington Vs. Indianapolis -9.5 Arizona Vs. Oakland +2.5 Minnesota Vs. Seattle -6.5 NY Giants Vs. Dallas -3.5 Just quoting the entire thing to lock your picks in....that way no editing by you come Sunday.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
whitewolf1 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Tmr501 don't fall for this guys crap! He is a degenerate looking for suckers to fill his pocket full of cash. He prays on the weak! He knows some with gambling issues will puruse these threads and if he gets lucky and hits 70% percent, he'll call it an unusally bad week and wait for the suckers to seek him out. Common sense indicates he is full of it. The regular guy knows this but the problem gambler does not look at it with a common sense perspective. WARNING!!!! This thread is dangerous! I do not gamble however and am entertained none-the-less! DJ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
timr510 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Tmr501 don't fall for this guys crap! He is a degenerate looking for suckers to fill his pocket full of cash. He prays on the weak! He knows some with gambling issues will puruse these threads and if he gets lucky and hits 70% percent, he'll call it an unusally bad week and wait for the suckers to seek him out. Common sense indicates he is full of it. The regular guy knows this but the problem gambler does not look at it with a common sense perspective. WARNING!!!! This thread is dangerous! I do not gamble however and am entertained none-the-less!DJ HaHa thak you for the advice whitewolf but i to am a degenerate and usually i dont listen to anyones ideas about pics but like i said earlier i'm still in shock with the way he called the monday night game!! And i no it could jsut be a one time lucky thing but it just seemed to good to b true!! and i already had my money on arizona in that game but when i read that thread i was shocked and instantly just wanted to hear more from him! We will c this week if he is for real or not and i hope so lol cause im going wit it!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingofBeer 0 Posted October 20, 2006 HaHa thak you for the advice whitewolf but i to am a degenerate and usually i dont listen to anyones ideas about pics but like i said earlier i'm still in shock with the way he called the monday night game!! And i no it could jsut be a one time lucky thing but it just seemed to good to b true!! and i already had my money on arizona in that game but when i read that thread i was shocked and instantly just wanted to hear more from him! We will c this week if he is for real or not and i hope so lol cause im going wit it!! yeah, ok colbert na.........i mean timr. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Liberals are Clueless 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Remember, Colbert is the same guy who claimed at another board that, He worked at Area 51 Link And his buddy had video showing the plane hitting the pentagon, yet in 6 years since, has never sold it to the media, even though it would be worth a small fortune. Notice also that he never posts it like he said he would. Link Notice he joined that forum on the same day he joined this one. Just another troll. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Parja 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Funny stuff... If he's really promising 97% accuracy on all games... that means you can only lose 7 in a season. That's pretty amazing! If I can make it to Mexico on Saturday, I'm gonna throw a $20 and parlay all games with these picks (my bookie won't take anything over 4). I don't even know what that would pay (If I remember correctly, it's around 700-1)... but I'm sure I could at least make a nice down payment on a '07 Roadking... whatever the payoff is. Vroooom vrooooom!! Well, Bodog will let you 12-team parlay. So bet the 12 Sunday games against the spread (currently 2774:1), then let it all ride on the Giants against the spread Monday night (-115). So for a $100 investment, you'll have roughly $520,000 by Monday night. Just that easy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
timr510 0 Posted October 20, 2006 yeah, ok colbert na.........i mean timr. lol its pretty sad how stupid u guys are!!! i mean watever if i have a different opinion then u then u can say somptin bout that but more then half of u wenever i write just say ok colbert... i just joined this thing this week bc i was bored as ###### at work!! and i like it a lot but wtf everytime i post i here i get the same stupid ass response... Do u thnk that dude Colbert would really make up alias n ###### i doubt it he dont care that much and i dont think neone in there right mind would care that much ... I dont no the dude i jsut no that he called the game right on pt last week and i give him credit for that... So KingofBeer have a clue wat ur talking bout moron Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TimmySmith 2,782 Posted October 20, 2006 To understand Vegas' view on point spreads, simply read the fine print the next time you fill out a parlay card. They list the odds in winning any particular parlay in the same terms used on lottery tickets. Fortunately, at least real oddsmakers don't take the time to start ridiculous and nonsensical threads like this one. The simple truth is that any line posted is expected to yield a fifty percent likelihood whichever side the bettor takes. The closer the line is to achieving this ratio the more valuable the oddsmaker. Claiming 97% accuracy or even 75% on football betting is the same as saying a person has a technique for flipping a coin that makes it come up heads 97% of the time. This is undoubtedly the most absurd claim I have ever seen anywhere. Good fiction. I disagree with you to a point. 97% is ridiculous, but 75% is very possible. BUT, not by picking EVERY game each week. A truly savvy bettor, there are damn few and none frequent this board, can hit 75% playing a few games a week. The Hilton contest which consists of playing 5 games per week, is never won by any less than 60-65%. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Colbert Nation 0 Posted October 20, 2006 My source is 97% lifetime, not weekly but for all you guys who are putting down a few bucks on these picks, you are about to make alot of money. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Headslap75 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Colbert I think you are a Tool......but you know what My gambling addiction takes precedent in this case.I'm gonna bet these games.......and I'm going to bet w/97% confidence that I will win about 1/2 of the games and lose about 1/2 thus I will be simply losing the juice to the man......just like it is 97% of the time when I make my own wagers...BTW 1% of the time I win real big 2% I lose My a$$ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rdrs4life 0 Posted October 20, 2006 Damn Colbert, you must live a very satisfying life. I mean, there is no way that you hate getting up in the morning having to look your pathetic piece of shiet ass in the mirror wondering if you can make it one more day without pulling the trigger, I wish I had just as enjoyable life as you. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
goodoldalky 0 Posted October 21, 2006 Nobody ever sniffs 97% much less 70% in the NFL because the lines are so tight. Not possible. I call B.S. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Colbert Nation 0 Posted October 21, 2006 Heres What I do...even with his 97% accuracy rate (I think i proved this with his inside knowledge of the Arizona vs Chicago game) I still never do a 12 team parlay, as we all know if you even mess up on one game you don't win a dime, I break it in half, play 2 6 game parlays, or in this weeks case sense not many bookies are taking bets on the Houston/Jax game I'll split it 6 game and 5 game parlay, 9 times out of 10 one of those 2 parlays wins, and in a 5 or 6 game parlay, even with a small bet like 500 bucks per parlay...the payoff is pretty good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ras66not99 0 Posted October 21, 2006 even with a small bet like 500 bucks per parlay...the payoff is pretty good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AnaheimRams 28 Posted October 21, 2006 Heres What I do...even with his 97% accuracy rate (I think i proved this with his inside knowledge of the Arizona vs Chicago game) I still never do a 12 team parlay, as we all know if you even mess up on one game you don't win a dime, I break it in half, play 2 6 game parlays, or in this weeks case sense not many bookies are taking bets on the Houston/Jax game I'll split it 6 game and 5 game parlay, 9 times out of 10 one of those 2 parlays wins, and in a 5 or 6 game parlay, even with a small bet like 500 bucks per parlay...the payoff is pretty good. Actually... You said your "source" said AZ wouldn't win, with the spread. You were betting AZ against his advice. Then you said he told you that Chicago would win by one point. 28-27 I think was the final score you gave us. Alls I know is... this is a no lose situation for me. You'll either be exposed as a complete tool... officially. Or... I'll win a nice fat chunk of change. Frankly... I would enjoy either of those very much. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rdrs4life 0 Posted October 21, 2006 Do you really feel like this gives your life meaning? Do something productive with your life man, you only get 1 shot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Colbert Nation 0 Posted October 21, 2006 Do you really feel like this gives your life meaning? Do something productive with your life man, you only get 1 shot. no, but it helps pass the time Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GiantsRule 0 Posted October 21, 2006 or in this weeks case sense not many bookies are taking bets on the Houston/Jax game Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Colbert Nation 0 Posted October 21, 2006 a bump for all you guys looking to make some money this sunday...next week this info will cost you Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yer mom 2 Posted October 22, 2006 a bump for all you guys looking to make some money this sunday...next week this info will cost you WELL WEll Well...Mr Nation. Random surfing of a site I visit occasionaly caused me to stumble upon your...."source" Does...7-6 last week sound familiar??? Or does 18-7 season to date ring a bell??? Im sure they do, I saw the picks you posted here layed out exactly as they were posted there. Im just bringing this up since they are nowhere near 97% based on the figures above, nor would they be stretched out over the course of the season in my opinion. Are you paying these dudes? Well, even if so, at least they have a winning record!! I aint mad at cha though. I actually agree with alot of those picks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Colbert Nation 0 Posted October 22, 2006 WELL WEll Well...Mr Nation. Random surfing of a site I visit occasionaly caused me to stumble upon your...."source" Does...7-6 last week sound familiar??? Or does 18-7 season to date ring a bell??? Im sure they do, I saw the picks you posted here layed out exactly as they were posted there. Im just bringing this up since they are nowhere near 97% based on the figures above, nor would they be stretched out over the course of the season in my opinion. Are you paying these dudes? Well, even if so, at least they have a winning record!! I aint mad at cha though. I actually agree with alot of those picks actually last week my source went 11-1...causing me to lose one of my parlays...but I won the other also...18-7 is pretty good, where did you see those picks posted? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Duffman 0 Posted October 22, 2006 I haven't hit many games myself. I'll give this guy a try.......what the hell!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
listen2me 23 1,544 Posted October 22, 2006 What would you guys say Colbert needs as a % hit this week for him to consider it a win in that he proved us wrong? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
s0meguy 0 Posted October 22, 2006 Hey you want to come back and admit that you're full of shiot because Buffalo and Jacksonville are pretty much guaranteed to lose? Or are they both poised for heroic 20 point comebacks in the last 4 minutes? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GiantsRule 0 Posted October 22, 2006 bump Tarheel: Don't let this guy pull a GFIAFP. Make sure you copy this thread before he deletes it!!! Someone's going to have to sell his [toy] Ferrari!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Liberals are Clueless 0 Posted October 22, 2006 a bump for all you guys looking to make some money this sunday...next week this info will cost you Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AnaheimRams 28 Posted October 22, 2006 What would you guys say Colbert needs as a % hit this week for him to consider it a win in that he proved us wrong? Hitting them all... would obviously be VERY impressive... and pretty much shut us all up. Missing one... well... still a very good set of picks. Would make me definitely consider betting with him again. Missing two... Still a good run, but hey, he claimed 97% accuracy (and since that would mean betting all games in a season and losing just SEVEN)... I'd say missing two would be a "push"... and the arguing will continue. Missing three (or more)... IMO, game over. Would still be a good weekend of betting, but you simply can't miss three games in one weekend and claim 97% accuracy overall. Which reminds me... I need to call the f-ing Harley dealer and see if I can get my deposit back. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingofBeer 0 Posted October 22, 2006 4 wins and 4 losses for the early games. that's a negative return Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GiantsRule 0 Posted October 22, 2006 4 wins and 4 losses for the early games. that's a negative return Don't tell me you're surprised by this...it's actually 4 wins more than I thought he'd have! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
