**Official College Bowl Games Betting Thread**

[Skinny_Bastard 157]

WOW!!! Russel got a BIG ARM!!!

He threw from his backfoot..that thing must have traveled 50+ yards!!!

[phillybear 366]

Overall College YTD: 274-235-6; +59.67 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 145-115-2; +69.17 units

Subset: Bowls: 18-11; +17.65 units

 

Wednesday

 

LSU (-8.5) for 2 units WINNER!!

Over LSU/ND (56) for 2 units LOSER!!

 

With the season fast approaching to an end, I am happy to be up about 60 units. It's not quite the +77.5 units of last year. And it's better than the goal I set for myself a month or so ago to reach +50 units. Feels like I am playing with house money, so I'll get a little aggressive on tonight's games.

 

Key angle: Notre Dame is 0-8 ATS last 8 bowl games. Notre Dame has not won a bowl game since 1994.

Key angle: LSU is 7-0 ATS vs non-conference teams last two years.

 

Games like Kentucky upsetting Clemson and Boise St beating Oklahoma have given enthusiasm to bettors to take big dogs in some of these late bowl games. However, sometimes the mismatch is just too great between two teams. Wake Forest gave Louisville a lot of trouble last night. Yet, Louisville still got the 11 point win and cover. And Notre Dame will probably be a popular play tonight, I am guessing, since I can't access sportsinsights from work. Hell, Notre Dame is the most popular college football team in the country, so of course they will be backed by the public tonight. However, the real problem here is that while LSU is considered the most talented SEC team, Notre Dame is slow, bad defensively, and been blown out by 26 points to Michigan and 20 points to USC, the only BCS bowl teams on their schedule.

 

There is no doubt that Notre Dame faced an easy schedule. Their quality victories are a 38-14 win over Navy in the first game that Navy was starting a backup QB, a 41-17 home win over Penn St in game that Penn St outgained Notre Dame, but lost the turnover battle 3-0, and a 20-17 home win over UCLA, in a game Notre Dame needed a last second TD to win, and a 14-10 win over Georgia Tech in Week One. Notre Dame, despite playing a bunch of cupcakes in a piss poor schedule, gained 5.8 yards per play vs teams that allow 5.2 ypp. They allow 5.2 yards per play vs teams that gain 5.2 ypp. I am not impressed, especially defensively.

 

LSU gains 6.5 ypp vs teams that allow 5.4 ypp. LSU allows 4.1 ypp vs teams that average 5.3 ypp. LSU is ranked #3 in the nation on defense. LSU has the much better offense and defense in this game. LSU lost two games this year, 7-3 at Auburn, in a game where LSU got screwed repeatedly by the officials. They lost to Florida 23-10, in a game they turned it over 5 times. They are coming in with a 6 game winning streak, including a win at Arkansas in their last game.

 

Mindset is a tricky thing tonight. Notre Dame feels disrespected, saying that people are calling them slow. Brady Quinn: "I get tired of hearing how bad we are." Newsflash: Notre Dame hasn't won a bowl game since 1994. The offensive line is leaky and the pass defense gives up big plays. I think this is Notre Dame's way of trying to rebound from a bad loss to USC, a game where Notre Dame was trying to propel itself into a top ranking this year, trying to pump themselves up. They were outplayed, shredded by Booty and the USC WRs. Will LSU bring less motivation into this game that Notre Dame? I don't think so. The Sugar Bowl is back in New Orleans after a one year absence, and this is in LSU's back yard. They might get a similar boost as the Saints did on that Monday Night game vs Atlanta early in the NFL season.

 

I have been going against Notre Dame a lot this year, especially the middle toward the end of the year, and that has made me money. I thought they were overrated all year long, and I won't change my opinion now. The fact that both teams are in the top 14 in points scored, and that we haven't seen many shootouts in bowls the last couple of days lead me to like the OVER. If Notre Dame wants to hang around in this game, they have to outscore LSU. I think given all this time to prepare, Charlie Weiss will have a good enough game plan for Notre Dame to scores points. But I don't think it will be enough. I will fade Notre Dame again.

 

Good luck to all.

 

Split out last night. I had the side pegged. Came up excruciatingly close on the over/under. I guess it's yet another reason why I mostly avoid betting over/unders.

 

Overall College YTD: 275-236-6; +59.47 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 146-116-2; +68.97 units

Subset: Bowls: 19-12; +17.45 units

[t.j 35]

Came up excruciatingly close on the over/under.

 

Damn kickers!

[zmanzzzz 1]

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[Lizard1 0]

Thanks Philly for your calls/insight on these games. Out of curiousity, you mentioned something about work earlier and started to wonder what sort of line of work you were in?

 

Looking forward to some good info for the MAC games coming up...

 

thanks again

[phillybear 366]

Out of curiousity, you mentioned something about work earlier and started to wonder what sort of line of work you were in?

 

Human Resources, Data Analyst.

 

My life revolves around numbers, at work and with point spreads.

[GiantsRule 0]

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You're still doing the same, tired old schtick?!?

[beefy1 0]

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And the point of this would be...?

[Grind 0]

Who posted in: **Official College Bowl Games Betting Thread**

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GiantsRule 72

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JT 28

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Dragan187 1

BuschWack 1

santa*69 1

brian1974 1

Oredigger 1

torridjoe 1

VoDZKABoY 1

whitewolf1 1

COACHG137 1

 

 

I want to be included on this list. Please update.

[phillybear 366]

During the season, Dr Bob and his picks came up in conversation. I admitted that I read his analysis, and have respected his picks for 5 years or so. His picks, when released, absolutely move lines, which is unusual.

 

He got profiled in the Wall St Journal. Here is link to a copy and paste of the text. Very interesting read.

 

Link

 

And like I said before, I don't pay for sh!t. But like the article pointed out, his stuff gets posted on free websites.

[new-guru 0]

Phill

Are you or Dr. Bob have any picks on the Playoff games or the Sothern Miss game

 

I like S. Miss HUGE

[phillybear 366]

Phill

Are you or Dr. Bob have any picks on the Playoff games or the Sothern Miss game

 

I like S. Miss HUGE

 

I'm sure I'll be playing the last couple of games. I know that I like Florida. I'll dig into the other two games later tonight. Pre-research, at first glance at the lines, I lean slightly towards W Mich and Ohio, but I'll see what I come up with.

 

Good luck with whatever you end up doing.

[swirvenirvin 25]

During the season, Dr Bob and his picks came up in conversation. I admitted that I read his analysis, and have respected his picks for 5 years or so. His picks, when released, absolutely move lines, which is unusual.

 

He got profiled in the Wall St Journal. Here is link to a copy and paste of the text. Very interesting read.

 

Link

 

And like I said before, I don't pay for sh!t. But like the article pointed out, his stuff gets posted on free websites.

 

 

good read

[dain11279 976]

During the season, Dr Bob and his picks came up in conversation. I admitted that I read his analysis, and have respected his picks for 5 years or so. His picks, when released, absolutely move lines, which is unusual.

 

He got profiled in the Wall St Journal. Here is link to a copy and paste of the text. Very interesting read.

 

Link

 

And like I said before, I don't pay for sh!t. But like the article pointed out, his stuff gets posted on free websites.

 

And i thought WE did research lol.

 

 

During the season, Dr Bob and his picks came up in conversation. I admitted that I read his analysis, and have respected his picks for 5 years or so. His picks, when released, absolutely move lines, which is unusual.

 

He got profiled in the Wall St Journal. Here is link to a copy and paste of the text. Very interesting read.

 

Link

 

And like I said before, I don't pay for sh!t. But like the article pointed out, his stuff gets posted on free websites.

 

Hey Phillly, quick question: How do you copy and paste a link like u did here and get it to just say "Link" instead of having the whole address? Just curious...thanks!!! That was a very good read too...

[cribdog 0]

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Oredigger 1

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VoDZKABoY 1

whitewolf1 1

COACHG137 1

 

I made a list!

[phillybear 366]

Hey Phillly, quick question: How do you copy and paste a link like u did here and get it to just say "Link" instead of having the whole address? Just curious...thanks!!! That was a very good read too...

 

Copy (Control C) the address from the address box of your linked site. Then at FFToday, add reply, click on the symbol that looks like globe with a paperclip in your formatting tools above your reponse window. This is the "insert link". This will open up a user prompt box. Clear out the "http://". Paste (Control V) your destination link and hit OK. Clear "My webpage" and type in "Link" or whatever you want. Hit OK.

 

That's it.

[GiantsRule 0]

Need an early winner tomorrow people! Leaning towards W. Mich +7.5 but I know nothing about these teams. I'll take a line or a total; just make it good and have solid reasoning.

[EAwer 1]

ya philly how many units u putting on wastern michigan?

[phillybear 366]

Overall College YTD: 275-236-6; +59.47 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 146-116-2; +68.97 units

Subset: Bowls: 19-12; +17.45 units

 

Saturday

 

Western Michigan (+7) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

 

Western Michigan is probably more excited to be playing this game, a game that is being played in Toronto. They have not gone bowling in quite some time, which can't be said for Cincinnati. W Mich is a top 15 defense. Top 15 defense in bowl games are 7-2 ATS when not facing another top 15 defense. Cincinnati has coaching issues, as their head coach left for another job. This game will be gameplanned by the Cent Mich staff, as they came over a month ago. This presents a problem, as a new coaching staff is trying to learn the personnel. And there is some confusion over which Cinc QB will start. Cincinnati is 1-4 SU on the road and all of their big wins this year were at home.

[GiantsRule 0]

Overall College YTD: 275-236-6; +59.47 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 146-116-2; +68.97 units

Subset: Bowls: 19-12; +17.45 units

 

Saturday

 

Western Michigan (+7) for 3 units

 

Western Michigan is probably more excited to be playing this game, a game that is being played in Toronto. They have not gone bowling in quite some time, which can't be said for Cincinnati. W Mich is a top 15 defense. Top 15 defense in bowl games are 7-2 ATS when not facing another top 15 defense. Cincinnati has coaching issues, as their head coach left for another job. This game will be gameplanned by the Cent Mich staff, as they came over a month ago. This presents a problem, as a new coaching staff is trying to learn the personnel. And there is some confusion over which Cinc QB will start. Cincinnati is 1-4 SU on the road and all of their big wins this year were at home.

 

Need the win desperately so I'm piggybacking:

 

Western Michigan +7.5 (-120)

 

Hopefully, this will help pad my 2X bet on the squarest of all plays this weekend: KC-Indy Over 50.

 

Good luck to all!

 

[dain11279 976]

Copy (Control C) the address from the address box of your linked site. Then at FFToday, add reply, click on the symbol that looks like globe with a paperclip in your formatting tools above your reponse window. This is the "insert link". This will open up a user prompt box. Clear out the "http://". Paste (Control V) your destination link and hit OK. Clear "My webpage" and type in "Link" or whatever you want. Hit OK.

 

That's it.

 

Thanks!!

[ROCKET 0]

I definately over thought the LSU game, UND really did have no shot but I figured maybe Quinn would go out with a huge game. I'm definately all over the next 2 dogs and then am sticking to taking OSU in the title game. I'm one game under .500 for the bowls, it's definately been one of the more disappointing bowl seasons for me thus far. I'm almost glad it's over with. Looking forward to the dogs in the first round of the NFL playoffs along with some texas holdem tonight. GL everyone.

 

ETA: The focking Western Mich game is already on? I didn't know it started so damn early and never got my play in. WMU bettors are now assued of a cover

[GiantsRule 0]

Fvck college football. Seriously. Fvck the whole fvcking sport. I can't believe how my luck has just turned to liquid sh!t in the past two weeks because of Bowl season. But guaranteed if I took Cincy, it would be W. Mich up 14-0. That's how putrid my luck has been. But I'll lose every penny of my winnings before I stop taking games because the second I stop, everything I pick wins.

 

Fvcking book always wins in the end.

[beefy1 0]

How's that for momentum shifts!

[phillybear 366]

Fvck college football. Seriously. Fvck the whole fvcking sport. I can't believe how my luck has just turned to liquid sh!t in the past two weeks because of Bowl season. But guaranteed if I took Cincy, it would be W. Mich up 14-0. That's how putrid my luck has been. But I'll lose every penny of my winnings before I stop taking games because the second I stop, everything I pick wins.

 

Fvcking book always wins in the end.

 

That's some angry typing.

[GiantsRule 0]

That's some angry typing.

 

I stand by my sore loser rant. Even when I get miracle covers like this (similar to how I won a prop on the Boise State game only because of the final TD), I end up giving it back within 24 hours (as I did with the L'ville-Wake game).

[phillybear 366]

Overall College YTD: 275-236-6; +59.47 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 146-116-2; +68.97 units

Subset: Bowls: 19-12; +17.45 units

 

Saturday

 

Western Michigan (+7) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

 

 

Brutal start to the game, but W Mich rallies nicely and covers.

 

Overall College YTD: 276-236-6; +62.47 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 147-116-2; +71.97 units

Subset: Bowls: 20-12; +20.45 units

 

I'm sure I'll have some kind of play on tomorrow's game.

[ROCKET 0]

Told you guys you were all set. I didn't get home until 3 a.m. after my playoff fantasy draft and poker last night. WTF do they have to start at frigin noon time? I can't focking win, 2 plays I didn't get in both cover. I'm taking Indy -7 so if you play KC you're guaranteed to win. Oh well more poker tonight, have'nt played in about 3 months and now I have 2 nights of it in a row. Maybe at least I'll catch a break on that.

[phillybear 366]

I stand by my sore loser rant. Even when I get miracle covers like this (similar to how I won a prop on the Boise State game only because of the final TD), I end up giving it back within 24 hours (as I did with the L'ville-Wake game).

 

You're getting way too stressed out over this.

 

It's a source of entertainment, not a reason to kick puppies or strangle kittens. Although, I can think of other reasons to strangle kittens.

[GiantsRule 0]

You're getting way too stressed out over this.

 

It's a source of entertainment, not a reason to kick puppies or strangle kittens. Although, I can think of other reasons to strangle kittens.

 

In any other year when I'm up or down a few units, I would agree wholeheartedly. But this has been (for the most part) a fantastic year. I was up more than I ever imagined (some because of gambling; some from my Olympic referrals) and thought that the Bowl season would be a way to try and add a little bit to it. Instead I've gone from a peak of 36 units (using my definition of units) to just 21 (not including pending bets) and it's just been an absolute freefall.

 

It's been completely Mush Central the last several weeks. I pick games that look good and end up losing at the end. I hedge bets thinking it won't hit and it does and let other bets ride when it ends up losing. The 1st half college b-ball plays and props which have been so lucrative for me, have soured quickly.

 

And the sad part is, I haven't raised units or done anything really foolish (taking a standard unit on a 3-team parlay has been the biggest risk and that's been at my season high). I still take the same amount on most straight-up bets and keep parlays small. It's just been a terrible string of bad luck and it came from out of nowhere after my successes through most of December.

 

I think the problem (like you've suggested) is I've made this like a job. It's no longer fun. I have to win money when I do this. If I lose, I chase. If I win, I lament over "why didn't I bet more? That bet was so easy" and then end up pressing. For once, I need to be "glass half full guy", realize I'm still up a nice amount, and just try to turn it around so I have a nice sum to withdraw after the Super, er, Pro Bowl.

[Mack Daddy 0]

In any other year when I'm up or down a few units, I would agree wholeheartedly. But this has been (for the most part) a fantastic year. I was up more than I ever imagined (some because of gambling; some from my Olympic referrals) and thought that the Bowl season would be a way to try and add a little bit to it. Instead I've gone from a peak of 36 units (using my definition of units) to just 21 (not including pending bets) and it's just been an absolute freefall.

 

It's been completely Mush Central the last several weeks. I pick games that look good and end up losing at the end. I hedge bets thinking it won't hit and it does and let other bets ride when it ends up losing. The 1st half college b-ball plays and props which have been so lucrative for me, have soured quickly.

 

And the sad part is, I haven't raised units or done anything really foolish (taking a standard unit on a 3-team parlay has been the biggest risk and that's been at my season high). I still take the same amount on most straight-up bets and keep parlays small. It's just been a terrible string of bad luck and it came from out of nowhere after my successes through most of December.

 

I think the problem (like you've suggested) is I've made this like a job. It's no longer fun. I have to win money when I do this. If I lose, I chase. If I win, I lament over "why didn't I bet more? That bet was so easy" and then end up pressing. For once, I need to be "glass half full guy", realize I'm still up a nice amount, and just try to turn it around so I have a nice sum to withdraw after the Super, er, Pro Bowl.

 

GR - You're not the only one with a string of bad luck. I was singing after winning the CMU game on 12/26, only to go 3-12 over my next 15. And that is not a typo. After losing that V Tech game, I almost threw my TV through the window. It's gambling, but losing streaks will make you insane. I always find that staying away from it for a few days helps to clear my head. After losing my a$$ on Michigan, I waited until the Sugar Bowl and made some back on LSU... I guess what I am trying to say is, everyone's been there and if they say they haven't then they're flat out lying. In the end, you better plan on paying the book. It's just a fact of life.

[GiantsRule 0]

GR - You're not the only one with a string of bad luck. I was singing after winning the CMU game on 12/26, only to go 3-12 over my next 15. And that is not a typo. After losing that V Tech game, I almost threw my TV through the window. It's gambling, but losing streaks will make you insane. I always find that staying away from it for a few days helps to clear my head. After losing my a$$ on Michigan, I waited until the Sugar Bowl and made some back on LSU... I guess what I am trying to say is, everyone's been there and if they say they haven't then they're flat out lying. In the end, you better plan on paying the book. It's just a fact of life.

 

Yeah, the Div I-AA championship should have been a sign that this Bowl season wasn't going to go very well.

 

I don't care how well you're doing, the book always wins in the end. And that's just infuriating.

 

I wish I could say "oh, I'll just skip a day", but it's easier said than done. On days when there is no football, I end up betting college basketball halves (which I don't even watch) and the NBA (which is IMHO the hardest sport to make money in.) I'll try to take your advice better mid-week. No reason to take Toilet Paper State vs. Ketchup U bets because the first half over of 47 looks tempting!

 

Hedging/Middling have been my biggest weakness, particularly with live betting. I end up seeing something mid-game that looks too good to be true (L'ville-Wake Over 38.5 midway through the 2nd only to watch the game end with 37 points) or that convinces me to execute the buyback (now's your shot to get your money back on the LSU -7 bet. Notre Dame is down by 7 and you can get +10.5 for +120 odds!). I simply lose all confidence in my original bet (even today, if I wasn't at the gym, I guarantee you I would have taken Cincy for the 2H and called it a day).

 

Season's almost ever. Just need to avoid doing something stupid or drastic (like letting it all ride on a heavy favorite on the ML) and I should have some decent spending cash come early-Feb.

[phillybear 366]

Overall College YTD: 276-236-6; +62.47 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 147-116-2; +71.97 units

Subset: Bowls: 20-12; +20.45 units

 

Saturday

 

Ohio U (+6) for 3 units LOSER!!!!!

 

Key angle: Conf USA teams are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS in bowl games this year.

Key angle: MAC teams are 2-1 ATS in bowl game this year.

 

So Miss is seeing 60% of the action. I really don't see much difference between these two teams, as they both feature mediocre offenses and defenses, and want to run the ball. I don't understand why So Miss is such a big favorite. Ohio U has pretty good special teams, so that has gotta be worth something. Ohio U is playing in a bowl game for the first time in a while, while So Miss is used to playing in these minor bowls. The game is more meaningful for the rapidly rebuilding Ohio Bobcats.

 

Ohio is 8-1 SU on turf this year, and will be more confortable on this playing surface than So Miss, which played 2 games on turf.

Ohio is 4-2 ATS as a dog

Ohio is 4-3 ATS on road

So Miss is 1-3 ATS vs teams with winning record.

So Miss is 2-5 ATS on road.

 

In a battle between conference runner ups, I will take the points with Ohio. I am not sure that Conf USA is any better than the MAC this year, and Ohio should be more motivated today. So Miss seems underwhelming as a favorite.

 

Good luck.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

Taking Ohio +6 4 units

Ohio ML one unit

 

gl to all

[EAwer 1]

1st half=

[phillybear 366]

Overall College YTD: 276-237-6; +59.17 units

Subset: 2 unit plays or higher: 147-117-2; +68.67 units

Subset: Bowls: 20-13; +17.15 units

 

Monday

 

It's been another fun year of college football. I bet much smaller units on every other sport, this is the most important sport for me wagering wise, and it's been a nice couple of years of profit in a row now. On to the last game of the year....

 

Florida (+8) for 3 units WINNER!!!!!

 

Maybe the game will go over the +7 point, so I'll wait until I get home before placing my wager. By now, everyone has an opinion on this game, so I'll keep it brief. Both teams are nearly identical in offensive and defensive numbers. Florida has a better defense and faced the toughest schedule in the country. I can't figure out why this game is 7 points instead of -2 or -3, other than public perception. Truth is, Florida is just as good as Ohio St, and has a decent chance of winning this game. Don't underestimate Urban Meyer's offensive play calling, as he is a very innovative mind, and will have Ohio St off balance on defense. Florida's only loss came at Auburn, in a game Auburn scored nearly all their points on special teams and defense. Fluky loss to be sure. It's also troubling to see Ohio St only beat Michigan by 3 points. Florida is better than Michigan. Since neither team has played in forever, I will take the better defense in a rusty offensive performance by both teams. I like taking big dogs with excellent defenses.

 

Take the points.

 

Maybe I'll be posting again next year, maybe not; it's a lot of pressure and it's a grind. Either way, I'll see you guys around.

[phillybear 366]

Some numbers that caught my attention:

 

Florida gives up 2.8 yards per rush vs teams that average 4.0 ypr.

Florida gives up 4.4 yards per play to teams that average 5.5 yards per play.

Ohio St gives up 4.6 yards per play to teams that average 5.4 yards per play.

Florida played the hardest schedule in the country. And played better defense.

 

Ohio St will have to pass to win. And isn't there some sort of jinx on Heisman trophy winnners in bowl games? Most people don't realize how good Florida's defense is.

[Grind 0]

Some numbers that caught my attention:

 

Florida gives up 2.8 yards per rush vs teams that average 4.0 ypr.

Florida gives up 4.4 yards per play to teams that average 5.5 yards per play.

Ohio St gives up 4.6 yards per play to teams that average 5.4 yards per play.

Florida played the hardest schedule in the country. And played better defense.

 

Ohio St will have to pass to win. And isn't there some sort of jinx on Heisman trophy winnners in bowl games? Most people don't realize how good Florida's defense is.

 

 

I realize the SEC is good, but isn't it true that the strengths of most teams in that conference is the run game and defense? Has Florida played a team with four, 1st and 2nd round NFL prospects, on offense at just the skilled positions yet? OSU is balanced. Pittman is far under-rated simply because he plays in an offense that features the Heisman winner and Ginn Jr. The freshman RB OSU has will be a top five NFL pick when he finishes.

 

I've been over and over this in my head and can only come up with one way Florida keeps this within 20 tonight and that is OSU's layoff since last playing a game. I don't factor this too much considering that Tressel coaches the team. Although he cheats, that doesn't take away from the fact that he can coach. My guess is that the first two series OSU has the ball, they feature some player that no one has really heard of outside of diehard OSU fans. Tressel has probably been coaching that player up for the last month getting him ready for his role in this game. The fact that Smith is mobile will greatly reduce Florida's only advantage (defensive speed). Of course, the last time I checked Ginn Jr. wasn't too slow among other players on OSU's offense.

 

Another under-analyzed factor in this game is how bad Florida's kicking game is this year. OSU knows that they can give up a lot of yards without having to worry too much about giving up points. The only way Florida will score is via a TD.

 

Final score. OSU 38 Florida 14

[phillybear 366]

I realize the SEC is good, but isn't it true that the strengths of most teams in that conference is the run game and defense? Has Florida played a team with four, 1st and 2nd round NFL prospects, on offense at just the skilled positions yet? OSU is balanced. Pittman is far under-rated simply because he plays in an offense that features the Heisman winner and Ginn Jr. The freshman RB OSU has will be a top five NFL pick when he finishes.

 

I've been over and over this in my head and can only come up with one way Florida keeps this within 20 tonight and that is OSU's layoff since last playing a game. I don't factor this too much considering that Tressel coaches the team. Although he cheats, that doesn't take away from the fact that he can coach. My guess is that the first two series OSU has the ball, they feature some player that no one has really heard of outside of diehard OSU fans. Tressel has probably been coaching that player up for the last month getting him ready for his role in this game. The fact that Smith is mobile will greatly reduce Florida's only advantage (defensive speed). Of course, the last time I checked Ginn Jr. wasn't too slow among other players on OSU's offense.

 

Another under-analyzed factor in this game is how bad Florida's kicking game is this year. OSU knows that they can give up a lot of yards without having to worry too much about giving up points. The only way Florida will score is via a TD.

 

Final score. OSU 38 Florida 14

 

 

Florida gives up 4.4 yards per play to teams that average 5.5 yards per play.

Ohio St gives up 4.6 yards per play to teams that average 5.4 yards per play.

 

Florida gains 399 yards per game.

Ohio St gains 410 yards per game.

 

These team could play 100 times, and Ohio St would win by more than 20 possibly twice. Possibly. If Florida turned it over a bunch of times.

[Grind 0]

Florida gives up 4.4 yards per play to teams that average 5.5 yards per play.

Ohio St gives up 4.6 yards per play to teams that average 5.4 yards per play.

 

Florida gains 399 yards per game.

Ohio St gains 410 yards per game.

 

These team could play 100 times, and Ohio St would win by more than 20 possibly twice. Possibly. If Florida turned it over a bunch of times.

 

 

Speaking of turnovers, I think I am hearing that Florida has turned the ball over more times then every other team outside of Akron.

 

Just telling it as I see it. Without going into too much detail, the fact is that Urban is an offense first coach (offensive genius, if there is one) and he got that offense to get 399 yards a game. That is telling me the talent isn't too good. Normal coach gets say 300 yards a game. Urban probably is good for 100 yards a game. Not taking anything away from that. Tressel is a defense first coach and his offense average 410 per game on talent alone. Tressel couldn't even stop this team from scoring. Give Urban OSU's offensive talent and I'd say they average 45 plus a game and 550 yards. That said, I don't think Florida's offense is balanced enough or talented enough to do much against a Tressel coached defense, with time to prepare.

 

Smith's mobility is probably the key to the game. Florida's defense is fast. No doubt. Smith has the ability to move around while looking down field (McNabb like). Not that Smith will run for 100 yards or anything like that. He will just buy enough time.