NCAA Basketball Bubble Talk- 1/29

[Fumbleweed 547]

As is the norm, this will be the first post of many in the coming weeks as we count down to the NCCA Basketball tourney in approximately six weeks. These are the 65 teams I think would be in the tournament if the season ended today. The plan is to do one thread a week, so the next "Bubble Talk" will be next Monday or Tuesday. For all college hoops fans onsite, this will hopefully be a springboard for some great discussion in the weeks to come. So, here goes: First edition for 2007.........

 

Conferences that only have a shot at one bid (10): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big West, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, SWAC.

 

ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia

 

I think the ACC will get seven teams this year in the tourney as the conference is very strong. The first five teams listed here are probably going to get in for sure, but Florida State and Virginia will have to keep winning to keep Maryland and Georgia Tech out of the tourney. Maryland and Ga. Tech have good RPIs at the moment, but their conference records aren't good. Conversely, Virginia has a poor RPI, but 5-2 in the ACC is a great feat. They're in....for now.

 

Atlantic Ten (1-2): Xavier

 

Xavier is the only team at present that could/should get in if they don't win the conference tourney title and even that is iffy. GW and UMass are playing well at the moment, but they need to keep winning to improve their profiles. All three teams are worth watching at this point, but they'll still be fortunate to get two teams to the big dance.

 

Big East (6): Pittsburgh, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, West Virginia, Villanova

 

This number could shrink to 4 or 5 as the Big East is way down this year from what it has been in the recent past. The first four listed here look good, but Villanova needs to start winning in conference more to keep their spot. Their RPI is great, so they're still in for now. Louisville, Syracuse, and Providence are out for now, but they're playing well and should be considered possibilities as well.

 

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., Texas, Texas Tech

 

The first three are locks, but Texas needs to play well in their remaining games to remain a lock as does Texas Tech. Kansas State is the only other Big 12 team that could challenge for a spot, but if they go, I think they bump somebody else out as the Big 12 won't get six in this year.

 

Big South (1-2) Winthrop

 

This is a weaker conference, but Winthrop has had some big nonconference wins and cannot be ignored with a very good RPI and decent strength of schedule. If Winthrop wins their conference tourney, it's a moot point, but if they lose it, they will have probably had to have gone undefeated in regular season league play to have any at-large shot. They're undefeated in the Big South currently.

 

Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State

 

Big Ten fans aren't going to like only getting four teams in, but I think that's where we are at the moment. Indiana's playing better than expected, but most of the Big Ten isn't. Purdue, Michigan, and Illinois could all stake their claim to a bid if they close strong, but for right now, they're out.

 

Colonial (1-2): Virginia Commenwealth

 

I think at this point, VCU is a solid at-large team from a pretty solid mid-major conference if they happen to lose the Colonial tourney. Drexel is also solid, but not at-large worthy yet despite a good RPI. I think VCU will be in the dance regardless, though. Solid 10-0 in conference so far.

 

Conference USA (1-2) Memphis

 

Yuck. This used to be a very good conference....now, it's just Memphis and everybody else. Memphis is a lock and if they win the conference tourney, C-USA will send one team to the NCAA's. If they get upset, though, two teams are assured of going.

 

Horizon (1-2) Butler

 

See above. Butler is in the same position as Memphis. They're a lock for the tourney, so it's only if they lose the conference tourney that the Horizon gets a second bid.

 

Mid-American (1-2) Akron

 

Another conference that used to be much better. Akron's got an outside shot at an at-large, so I'll give them consideration for now, but even they are a longshot. This is probably a one-bid league again this year.

 

Mid-Continent (1-2): Oral Roberts

 

Oral Roberts probably has to go undefeated in conference and then lose in the conference tourney final to have any at-large shot. That win over Kansas at Kansas earlier this year can't be ignored.

 

Missouri Valley (4): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State, Bradley

 

Great league obviously and they could get five teams in, but I've got 'em down for just four right now. Northern Iowa and Wichita State are chasing, but WSU's win over LSU doesn't look so great anymore and UNI's RPI is weak. Bradley and Mizzou State are in for now, but they need to finish well to keep that status.

 

Mountain West (2): Air Force, UNLV

 

These two teams look like locks, but BYU is making a push to be the third team from the MWC that gets invited. So, this league could get three bids....stay tuned.

 

Pac-10 (6): UCLA, Oregon, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Arizona

 

Here's one conference that's way up this year in terms of strength and six teams getting in looks like a pretty good thing right now. Arizona is struggling a bit of late, but their RPI is in the teens....hard to overlook that. USC has a weaker RPI, but they are 6-3 in the #2 conference in the country at present. Stanford got a huge win last night. The top three teams look like locks for now. Cal and Washington are longshots at this point.

 

Patriot (1-2): Holy Cross

 

See Winthrop and Oral Roberts. Needs to go undefeated in conference and then advance to the conference tourney final to get an at-large bid most likely.

 

SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Arkansas

 

Who would have thought pre-season that you could leave LSU, Tennessee, and Alabama out of the dance, but right now, you have to as all three sit at 2-4 in conference. For some bizarre reason, though....Alabama continues to be ranked nationally. Guys, 2-4 teams in conference don't belong in the Top 25. In any event, Arkansas and Vandy's spots are tenuous for now and even Georgia is nowhere near lock status at this early date. One of the disappointing three will make a move in the next few weeks and earn a sixth spot for the league most likely. But, I can't put any of those underachievers in at the moment.

 

Southern (2): Davidson, Appalachian State

 

Call me crazy, but I think Davidson and/or Appalachian State deserve some serious at-large consideration. Both have impressive RPIs, solid out of conference wins, and are tearing through conference play. They'll both need to keep winning to have any shot at it, but I'm going to put both in for now. For now......

 

Southland (1-2): Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

 

See Oral Roberts, Winthrop, and Holy Cross. Must win all remaining games and then lose a close game in the conference tourney final to have any shot whatsoever.

 

Sun Belt (1-2): Western Kentucky

 

Conference is down this year some. WKU will have to win all remaining games and then go deep into the conference tourney....a tall order.

 

West Coast (1-2): Gonzaga

 

The 'Zags are no lock this year, and if they lose in the conference tourney, they become a real question mark to get in. If they win the conference tourney, this is a one-bid league.

 

WAC (1-2): Nevada

 

Nevada is a lock. There are some other good teams here, though....none that would get in at the moment, but one could upset Nevada in the conference tourney and make it in that way. Most likely candidates for that would be New Mexico State, Boise State, or Utah State. We shall see.

 

Top Sixteen Seeds (as of today):

 

#1- Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, UCLA

#2- Pittsburgh, Kansas, Ohio State, Texas A&M

#3- Duke, Oregon, Memphis, Virginia Tech

#4- Southern Illinois, Butler, Oklahoma State, Marquette

[donhaas 18]

I don't care what you say,

 

Badgers are in!!!!

[Guest Davaco]

who cares?

[Fumbleweed 547]

who cares?

 

Hoops fans, I would guess. If you're not interested, just move along.......

[Guest Davaco]

Hoops fans, I would guess. If you're not interested, just move along.......

 

dont you mean hoop fan? ,

[KSB2424 3,148]

I would be shocked if Georgia Tech doesn't somehow end up in field of 65. Virginia has a great backcourt, but I think GT will be the 7th ACC team when it is all said and done.

[golden eagles 0]

ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia

 

 

I don't think UVa is "in" at this point. They lost at home to Stanford right after beating Gonzaga & their home win over Arizona lost some punch when UNC went out there & kicked the dog shat out of 'zona Saturday. Plus, they got embarrassed at the Puerto Rico tourney on 2 straight days by App State ( ) & Utah. If they don't beat 1-2 teams they shouldnt the rest of the way & then get bounced early in the ACC tourney, they're NIT bound.

 

Teams that get beat by App State don't deserve a ticket to the big dance...

 

My .02

[Fumbleweed 547]

I don't think UVa is "in" at this point. They lost at home to Stanford right after beating Gonzaga & their home win over Arizona lost some punch when UNC went out there & kicked the dog shat out of 'zona Saturday. Plus, they got embarrassed at the Puerto Rico tourney on 2 straight days by App State ( ) & Utah. If they don't beat 1-2 teams they shouldnt the rest of the way & then get bounced early in the ACC tourney, they're NIT bound.

 

Teams that get beat by App State don't deserve a ticket to the big dance...

 

My .02

 

Well, they're 5-2 in the ACC. That's the #1 conference in the country this year. A 5-2 record in the #1 conference in the land is hard to ignore. Non-conference losses happen early. Teams sometimes get much better after those early losses....

[KSB2424 3,148]

I don't think UVa is "in" at this point. They lost at home to Stanford right after beating Gonzaga & their home win over Arizona lost some punch when UNC went out there & kicked the dog shat out of 'zona Saturday. Plus, they got embarrassed at the Puerto Rico tourney on 2 straight days by App State ( ) & Utah. If they don't beat 1-2 teams they shouldnt the rest of the way & then get bounced early in the ACC tourney, they're NIT bound.

 

Teams that get beat by App State don't deserve a ticket to the big dance...

 

My .02

 

App State is 48th in the RPI. They are actually an okay team this year. Just sayin'

[golden eagles 0]

Well, they're 5-2 in the ACC. That's the #1 conference in the country this year. A 5-2 record in the #1 conference in the land is hard to ignore. Non-conference losses happen early. Teams sometimes get much better after those early losses....

 

I just had this argument about UVa on Saturday with a friend who writes ACC basketball for an area local newspaper (and he's a Uva apologist), I'm just not convinced.

 

 

Here's what they have left:

 

Probable wins: Miami, @ Miami, @ Wake

 

Probable losses: Duke, @ Maryland, @ Va Tech

 

Home games they better not lose: Fla State, Ga Tech, Va Tech

 

 

They win the probables & 2 of the tough home matchups, that's 10 ACC wins, then I agree, they should be in. They show up in Tampa with 9 wins & get bounced in the 1st round, they're done.

 

 

 

App State is 48th in the RPI. They are actually an okay team this year. Just sayin'

 

And I'm just sayin that if you're the elite ACC basketball program UVa thinks it is, you don't lose to App State, hth...

[The Moz 69]

AS a hardcore UK fan ( undergrad alum ) this season sucks ass ! ! Looks like another season Tubby Smith will do just enough to keep his YOB but still keep us in medocrity !

 

To think just a few years ago we coulda fired Tubbys ass and Gotten Billy D easily

 

I almost hope UK doesn't make the dance so we can finally get rid of Tubby Smith ! 

[Fumbleweed 547]

AS a hardcore UK fan ( undergrad alum ) this season sucks ass ! ! Looks like another season Tubby Smith will do just enough to keep his YOB but still keep us in medocrity !

 

To think just a few years ago we coulda fired Tubbys ass and Gotten Billy D easily

 

I almost hope UK doesn't make the dance so we can finally get rid of Tubby Smith ! 

 

I am frustrated too with the level of talent we're getting, but I hardly think we're in a state of mediocrity. Up until last season, Kentucky had been a #1 or #2 seed in the tournament almost every year under Tubby. Tubby has proved that he is a great coach. He simply must prove that he can be a good recruiter. That's his downfall.

[The Moz 69]

I am frustrated too with the level of talent we're getting, but I hardly think we're in a state of mediocrity. Up until last season, Kentucky had been a #1 or #2 seed in the tournament almost every year under Tubby. Tubby has proved that he is a great coach. He simply must prove that he can be a good recruiter. That's his downfall.

 

 

hmmmm WEre are losing routinley to lesser teams , likley now out of top 25 , likley going to be a 6 - 8 seed. Sorry but in Lexington my friend that is considered below mediocre.

 

Tubby had some solid to gret regular seasons ! I don't consider a final 16 a great season at UK .

 

As you state the recruiting is awful. Tubby recruits like a mid major. WE got a WIDE OPEN hole at PF that any top HS kid coulda come in and started and Tubby couldn't get anyone ???

 

sorry Fumble I totally disagree that Tubby is a " great " coach and the last few season I wouldn't even call him a good coach !

[Fumbleweed 547]

He is a great bench coach, Moz. He just hasn't assembled enough talent many of his years there to get the team to the Final Four.

 

UK has lost to Michigan State in the Final 8 twice....once in overtime. In another Final 8 game, Bogans got hurt early on and Dwyane Wade played out of this world and we lost to Marquette. I know you know all of this....just reminding you that we've had some very good years since 1998.......but the last two years have indeed been below the standards that most UK fans are used to.

 

They are my team. I support them always and try to give the coach the benefit of the doubt. This year's freshmen look promising. But, the recruting does need to get better........

[Tarheel Boy 0]

Great analysis as usual, Fumble. I'll probably start looking closer starting next week when most conferences are past their half way point.

[The Moz 69]

He is a great bench coach, Moz. He just hasn't assembled enough talent many of his years there to get the team to the Final Four.

 

UK has lost to Michigan State in the Final 8 twice....once in overtime. In another Final 8 game, Bogans got hurt early on and Dwyane Wade played out of this world and we lost to Marquette. I know you know all of this....just reminding you that we've had some very good years since 1998.......but the last two years have indeed been below the standards that most UK fans are used to.

 

They are my team. I support them always and try to give the coach the benefit of the doubt. This year's freshmen look promising. But, the recruting does need to get better........

 

 

Maybe I am just reading too many of the posts at Dynastydefenders

 

I used to actually defend tubby just these last 2 seasons I am starting to join the other side

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Well, they're 5-2 in the ACC. That's the #1 conference in the country this year.

I think most of us would take the Pac-10 this year.

[Tarheel Boy 0]

I think most of us would take the Pac-10 this year.

 

I think overall the Pac 10 is probably the best conference as well. I know the ACC has done okay against them this year, Carolina dismantled Arizona this weekend and Virginia beat them as well. Stanford also went to Virginia, I believe, and beat them. Top to bottom though it's hard to argue against the Pac 10.

[Fumbleweed 547]

I think most of us would take the Pac-10 this year.

 

They're both very good. The ACC is #1 in the Sagarin Ratings and RPI. That's all I meant.

[Korben Dallas 0]

Great post and thank you for recognizing the Mizzou Valley. It's a good indication of peoples knowledge if they put more than 1 MV team in. I think you are dead on. SIU, Creighton is getting very hot, Wichita State playing poorly and NI coming on too late. I bet its 4 and you've got the right ones.

[dirty dug 0]

So pleased with the job that Coach Floyd has done with the Trojans, especially with the losses we suffered (specifically Ryan Francis).

 

I think Oregon deserves a #2 seed right now over A&M.

 

USC needs to go 5-4 in the second half of Pac 10 play and win at least one Pac 10 tourney game to get to 22 wins and make me feel confident we will get in and have a decent shot.

 

Can't wait until next year when we get OJ Mayo and Davon Jefferson. I'm hopeful we compete for a Pac 10 title and top 4 seed next season!

[texasmouth 1]

Cant wait for March Madness. Great time of year.....

 

 

 

Hope Texas can sneek in, if they do I think they are a team to watch. They can play with anyone in the country in my opinion, they have a solid young team and if they could get hot going into the tourny, they could be a sleeper.

[Tarheel Boy 0]

So pleased with the job that Coach Floyd has done with the Trojans, especially with the losses we suffered (specifically Ryan Francis).

 

I think Oregon deserves a #2 seed right now over A&M.

 

USC needs to go 5-4 in the second half of Pac 10 play and win at least one Pac 10 tourney game to get to 22 wins and make me feel confident we will get in and have a decent shot.

 

Can't wait until next year when we get OJ Mayo and Davon Jefferson. I'm hopeful we compete for a Pac 10 title and top 4 seed next season!

 

I was skeptical about Texas A&M for a long time too, Dirty Dug, but I've seen them play a lot over the year and I can say they are a damn good team. Their defense is amazing and this year they have offense to back it up. Acie Law and Joseph Jones are the two key players for their team. Their 3 losses have came on the road against some good competition (LSU, UCLA, Texas Tech). Granted LSU isn't as good as expected, but they did play them on the road and Tech is always tough at home. The Aggies are going to be a tough out this year.

[Sho Nuff 720]

I am frustrated too with the level of talent we're getting, but I hardly think we're in a state of mediocrity. Up until last season, Kentucky had been a #1 or #2 seed in the tournament almost every year under Tubby. Tubby has proved that he is a great coach. He simply must prove that he can be a good recruiter. That's his downfall.

 

Eddie Fogler does a local radio spot here during the week was talking about the HS talent in Kentucky sort of hitting a dry spell. That leading to why UK and Louisville have been having some down years...and moreover talking about how it affects Vandy here in Nashville. For quite a while Vandy could about survive on all the kids that UK and UL would not recruit...but that talent is simply not there anymore.