Stud RB Theory is complete history IMO

[NAn 39]

RE: Michael Bush

Last I read (and admittedly not on top of things as in years past), he was expected/targeted to be ready by camp/preseason.

Agree that it could a shrewd move to future and would rather they didn't rush him back.

If he does/can play could definitely be in mix if anywhere close to pre-injury, if not, again, nice move to future.

 

RE: Scooter/Myself on agreeing on several pts

<shudder>

armageddon

[nobody 2,111]

And don't forget drafting of Bush.

Yeah, as mentioned by scooter, I don't think Michael Bush is going to be ready next year.

 

RE: Michael Bush

Last I read (and admittedly not on top of things as in years past), he was expected/targeted to be ready by camp/preseason.

Agree that it could a shrewd move to future and would rather they didn't rush him back.

If he does/can play could definitely be in mix if anywhere close to pre-injury, if not, again, nice move to future.

 

RE: Scooter/Myself on agreeing on several pts

<shudder>

armageddon

I think they were saying McGahee was going to be ready at various points during his rookie season. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I've seen too many injuries lag on to take what the team says seriously.

[VaTerp 0]

I love how every summer people debate this or that draft theory and "this is the year you have to go RB-RB or this is the year to blah, blah, blah.

 

As others have said its STUPID to go into any draft wedding yourself to having to take certain positions in certain rounds. Do your rankings both by position and overall, assign a general round value to all of the players, get a feel for how the people in your league draft and how the draft is unfloding, then go with your gut and best judgement.

 

Last year I won my main league for the 3rd time in 4 years. Yeah I know, so did everybody else, but thats the truth. My first 4 rounds went Manning, McGahee, Wayne, Gore. I didnt go into the draft planning to do anything even remotely close to this but thats how it worked out. I didnt feel comfortable w/ any of the Rb's at 1.08 so I took Manning. I thought Gore could be just as good as any of the Rb's that were there in the 3rd so I took Wayne and hope Gore would be there in the 4th.

 

I left the draft not feeling very good about my team but I ended up w/ another Why? Because Manning did his thing and proved to be a MUCH better pick than any of the Rb's I was considering at 1.08 (R Brown, Portis, LJordan). I got excellent value out of Gore in the 4th, Wayne was a top 5 Wr, BAL D was the top scoring D, I got timely starts out of guys like MBIII, Travis Henry, L. Coles and others, AND I had some good fortune.

 

The year before was the only season I havent won the SB in my main league. And its the only year I went RB-RB-RB. I did have the best overall team and won some $$$ in other categories but I lost in the SB mainly b/c my QB's sucked down the stretch. I have also won the league taking C-Pep in the 1st in 04' and taking TO in the 2nd in 03'.

 

Point being, there is no surefire strategy other than to take the players you want. OF course Rb's will always rule FF b/c of simple supply and demand and the nature of football. So you value them accordingly in doing your overall player rankings. But to go into a draft saying Im gonna take RB-RB-WR-RB-QB no matter what is beyond stupid and yet another reason that Im starting to like auctions over serpentines more and more.

 

End of rant.

[Voice_Of_Reason 0]

No theory is good on it's face value. If your scoing rules favor the RB, then you must draft RB. If your scoring system favors the QB, WR, pass catching LB, or whatever then you must draft that position.

 

Everything depends on the scoring system.

[wishawks 0]

I went RB-RB-RB

 

SJax

Julius Jones

F. gore

 

Jones (Barber) killed me, by the time I gave up on him it was too late. I didnt make the playoffs either.

 

Last year I picked 7th in a 12 team league ( we freeze one guy, which is your 1st rd. pick)

I went RB, RB, RB, QB,WR

 

James

Parker

Gore

Eli

A. Johnson.

 

I also got Stallworth in the 9th. I think it does depend on how the draft is going. But the past 4 years I have picked RB in the first 3 rds. If you choose to draft for RB's you really need to be up with your middle round selections. I did a lot of homework on the middle picks and it payed off with a championship

[NAn 39]

No theory is good on it's face value. If your scoing rules favor the RB, then you must draft RB. If your scoring system favors the QB, WR, pass catching LB, or whatever then you must draft that position.

 

Everything depends on the scoring system.

 

knowing your league's scoring system and catering your draft to that system is a good point.

 

I'll add though, that it also depends on the starting line-up requirements.

 

Why we have this debate at all is b/c many leagues start 2rbs, some even 2rbs and option for a flex that can also be a rb.

 

Hence the 'scarcity' and 'supply v demand' that fuels the debate.

[Voice_Of_Reason 0]

knowing your league's scoring system and catering your draft to that system is a good point.

 

I'll add though, that it also depends on the starting line-up requirements.

 

Why we have this debate at all is b/c many leagues start 2rbs, some even 2rbs and option for a flex that can also be a rb.

 

Hence the 'scarcity' and 'supply v demand' that fuels the debate.

exactly. it all depends on the league. a league that starts 2 Rb and 4 WR and is 1 pt per recpt is weighted very differently than one that starts 3 Rb and 3 WR with no pts per recpt. And would greatly effect the draft strategy.

[Meglamaniac 380]

I'm suprised the stud K theory has not been mentioned at all in this thread, we all know they score the most FF points.

[football_scooter 0]

I'm suprised the stud K theory has not been mentioned at all in this thread, we all know they score the most FF points.

 

John Kasay: 1.01 in 2007

[slash 0]

For many years I've been a proponent of stud RB theory, often taking 3 in my 1st 4 picks. Occasionally taking 3 in a row with 1-2-3 picks.

 

Last year I jumped the bandwagon, and took a stud WR with my 2nd pick, then RB 3rd, then WR 4th and pulled a couple of scraps in the mid rounds.

 

As it turned out, I didn't make the playoffs in the 2 leagues I did this in. While the WR worked out well, the RBs were a total crapshoot from week to week. When the WRs were inconsistent, I didn't have 2 RBs to plug in that could get me the steady points that such a position generates.

 

Thus the dropoff from the stud RB I could have taken in the 2nd round was simply not worth the boost I got for the WR I did take over the next WR I could have had in the 3rd or 4th rounds.

 

There's so many WRs and so few RBs. I will be returning to stud RB this year, and may go RB-RB-RB in ever league as a result. I never want to spend another year stressing week to week over who I'm going to line up at RB2. Not with so many WRs out there to be had in the mid rounds.

 

Even if you get really lucky and nab the best WR (which is hardly a guarentee, since Boldin outperformed Fitz from an ADP of 1.5 rounds later, etc) then you still have to get really, really lucky and hope that a decent RB falls to you in the 3rd.

 

The one exception I would make is that if you have a top 3 pick it might make more sense to take a WR in the 2nd, then a RB on the turn in the 3rd. But then if you had a top 3 pick, you've got a true stud already and can tollerate more risk. If you're picking at the bottom of the draft, say 9-12, then you are commiting FFB suicide taking a WR in the 2nd, because you'll then have a crapload of picks between 2 & 3 and the chances of landing a decent RB2 decrease significantly.

 

My $.02

 

Not that i necessarily agree to disagree but I think there is a little more info needed here. lets hypothtically say that you could go back and take the rb that you bypassed in rd 2. Would you have fared better, same or worst? And dont go back and pick the best rb that was available at that point. the only fair comparison would be for you to say that If i had not taken X wr, I would have taken Y rb, and if we do data comparison for those two players, only then we can understand if you missing the playoff was due to a bad 2nd round pick of wr instead of rb.

[vroompac 2]

Due to always getting a bad draw in my redraft league I have gone RB/WR/WR for the last 3 years and have won 2 of them. Im still loving my last 2 years of Westbrook/Holt in a PPR league.

 

I like the strategy.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

knowing your league's scoring system and catering your draft to that system is a good point.

 

I'll add though, that it also depends on the starting line-up requirements.

 

Why we have this debate at all is b/c many leagues start 2rbs, some even 2rbs and option for a flex that can also be a rb.

 

Hence the 'scarcity' and 'supply v demand' that fuels the debate.

 

So true.

 

Know your league - including your competition's drafting style and your leagues rules and scoring.

Apply economics 101

 

I refuse to take an average rb as my #3 guy when there's guys like Palmer, Brady, Fitzgerald, Wayne on the board. I will take my chances taking BPA in the beginning of the draft an then add solid backups who could end up starters in the middle rounds.....much like the NFL draft.

[DankNuggs 305]

So true.

 

Know your league - including your competition's drafting style and your leagues rules and scoring.

Apply economics 101

 

I refuse to take an average rb as my #3 guy when there's guys like Palmer, Brady, Fitzgerald, Wayne on the board. I will take my chances taking BPA in the beginning of the draft an then add solid backups who could end up starters in the middle rounds.....much like the NFL draft.

interesting, now just think, if you weren't a complete doofus you'd be just like a real NFL GM.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

interesting, now just think, if you weren't a complete doofus you'd be just like a real NFL GM.

 

It must be pretty interesting to you. You're stalking me all over this board. You look pretty stupid doing it too.

 

[OrangeSoda 2]

To me this is something I have not figured out yet...Here's why...

 

I believe the Stud WRs theory can work, but only if you are in a league that rewards pts per rec.

 

If not I think RBs are still the way to go. With one twist... the Typicall stud RB has changed, Where it was a guy like Sean alexander or LJ, or Preist, Terrell Davis, etc... Those backs got 300 carries if not more. Now the Teams are more RBBC, and I think that blows for FF. it seems now the RBS who do not share work load, but can catch the ball and stay in on third downs are more valuable...

 

Here's my list

 

1) LT2 (obviously)

2) S. Jackson

3) B. Westbrook

4) L. Maroney

 

 

Soon after i think A. Peterson will be added to this list...(you could have made a case for D.davis/williams or L. Jordan 2 years ago, but this is the trend now, anyone who thinks otherwise is just kidding themselves)

[football_scooter 0]

Not that i necessarily agree to disagree but I think there is a little more info needed here. lets hypothtically say that you could go back and take the rb that you bypassed in rd 2. Would you have fared better, same or worst? And dont go back and pick the best rb that was available at that point. the only fair comparison would be for you to say that If i had not taken X wr, I would have taken Y rb, and if we do data comparison for those two players, only then we can understand if you missing the playoff was due to a bad 2nd round pick of wr instead of rb.

 

A fair point - I never said it was an exact science - jst speaking from my personal experience. Two leagues, one was a PPR league, the other not.

 

In both leagues, the RB I could have taken with that second pick indeed would have helped me quite a bit. Immediately following the season, I looked back for my planning for this year and as described, I could have had a viable RB2 in the 2nd round, and not experienced significant dropoff in with the WR I would have taken in the 3rd.

 

In the case of the non-ppr league, I took Fitz in the second and could have had Boldin in the 3rd had I taken a RB2 in the 2nd. In that case I would have fared better.

 

Look - I already conceded that luck has a lot to do with it, but the common theme in both leagues was that I found myself "chasing RBs" all year trying to fill in for my BYE weeks and get production out of the RB2 position, whereas in seasons I've take 3 RBs in the 1st 3 rounds I never had that problem. In the past I've gone RB-Rb-RB only to see my RB2 and RB3 outperform my RB1 - but it didn't matter. what mattered is that out of the 3 I had two guys I could plug and play and not stress it. With the number of WRs in the league, it was always easy to find breakout players in the mid-rounds, and to pick up surprise players mid season.

 

So as I said - it's not an exact science. But in the years I've been playing FFB, the best seasons I've had have been going with stud RB theory, mixed with ADP & VBD, as well as taking the needs of other teams into consideration. It's all such a crapshoot - I figure taking 3 RBs straight is a good way of hedging your bets and playing the odds that you'll hit on 2 of them.

 

And one other thing to consider....since RBs are indeed the rarest position to get true "stud" production out of, if you get REALLY lucky and all 3 of the RBs you took in those first 3 rounds hit, you can then deal one for a top WR to the team that went RB-WR-WR and missed with his RB2 and RB3 selections. You'll be dealing from a position of strength to address a position of weakness. Supply & demand applies to trades as well, and if you're the guy with an extra 1000/10 RB to deal, you will be able to get someone's 2nd round WR for your 3rd round RB in many instances.

 

Each to his own, but this is certainly food for thought.

[Steel City Blues 0]

This ties in to ‘drafting ability’: watching flow, tendencies/needs of other drafters, etc.

 

1. I never understand the man-love Bulger gets…maybe b/c of the offense but prior to last year he hadn't played a full season and had never threw for more than 22 tds/3900yds…nothing special as far as ff qbs go.

2. He was coming off a season where he only played 8 games and remember some being leary of his health (and history of injury).

 

But I digress.

 

Here’s a list of QBs who had great/good seasons in ’05 and/or were highly ranked off top of my head: Peyton/Palmer/Brady/Eli/Green/Bledsoe/Brees/Hass/Delhomme/Roths

 

That’s 10.

 

Now say those qbs are off the board by rnd 5-6 and there’s 2 qbs, Bulger and QB? that you’d be fine as your starter. With everyone having their starter, and if you’re watching that trend during draft, you can play the odds that other drafters will be looking to fill other positions.

 

A SEASONED ffer/drafter may continue to pick up RBs/WRs and wait till say 8th plus rnd to get his starter QB, banking that the other drafters won't go after their 2nd qb that early with other holes to fill.

 

 

You've never been in a draft with Jocstrap.

 

 

you have to go RB - RB.

 

not enough studs.

 

would you rather have:

 

addai

henry

reggie

TJ

 

or

 

addai

cj

reggie

caddy.

 

i will pick latter.

 

 

I'd take the 1st team by far. In that scenerio, I might even go

 

addai

henry

reggie

caddy

 

That's a nice foundation to build upon.

[mdm_1971 0]

i have always been more of finding the value yes you want 2 studs at rb but it is rare to have that..... this year I can keep Mcallister and plan on drafting bush if he is there and go wr in 2 and 3.... i think that you will start seeing this trend as more teams use multiple backs........face it if you wanted to go wr in 1 and 2 you could most likely land some of these combos later in the draft as well.......just my thoughts but i am trying this in one of my leagues this year and if it pays off i will let everybody know..... of course i will have to plan on the bye week to be a loss

 

To me this is something I have not figured out yet...Here's why...

 

I believe the Stud WRs theory can work, but only if you are in a league that rewards pts per rec.

 

If not I think RBs are still the way to go. With one twist... the Typicall stud RB has changed, Where it was a guy like Sean alexander or LJ, or Preist, Terrell Davis, etc... Those backs got 300 carries if not more. Now the Teams are more RBBC, and I think that blows for FF. it seems now the RBS who do not share work load, but can catch the ball and stay in on third downs are more valuable...

 

Here's my list

 

1) LT2 (obviously)

2) S. Jackson

3) B. Westbrook

4) L. Maroney

Soon after i think A. Peterson will be added to this list...(you could have made a case for D.davis/williams or L. Jordan 2 years ago, but this is the trend now, anyone who thinks otherwise is just kidding themselves)

I think you forgot Gore...... he was what #2 or #3 in receptions by a runningback last year and should have at least 50 again this year stays in on 3rd downs......

[slash 0]

A fair point - I never said it was an exact science - jst speaking from my personal experience. Two leagues, one was a PPR league, the other not.

 

In both leagues, the RB I could have taken with that second pick indeed would have helped me quite a bit. Immediately following the season, I looked back for my planning for this year and as described, I could have had a viable RB2 in the 2nd round, and not experienced significant dropoff in with the WR I would have taken in the 3rd.

 

In the case of the non-ppr league, I took Fitz in the second and could have had Boldin in the 3rd had I taken a RB2 in the 2nd. In that case I would have fared better.

 

Look - I already conceded that luck has a lot to do with it, but the common theme in both leagues was that I found myself "chasing RBs" all year trying to fill in for my BYE weeks and get production out of the RB2 position, whereas in seasons I've take 3 RBs in the 1st 3 rounds I never had that problem. In the past I've gone RB-Rb-RB only to see my RB2 and RB3 outperform my RB1 - but it didn't matter. what mattered is that out of the 3 I had two guys I could plug and play and not stress it. With the number of WRs in the league, it was always easy to find breakout players in the mid-rounds, and to pick up surprise players mid season.

 

So as I said - it's not an exact science. But in the years I've been playing FFB, the best seasons I've had have been going with stud RB theory, mixed with ADP & VBD, as well as taking the needs of other teams into consideration. It's all such a crapshoot - I figure taking 3 RBs straight is a good way of hedging your bets and playing the odds that you'll hit on 2 of them.

 

And one other thing to consider....since RBs are indeed the rarest position to get true "stud" production out of, if you get REALLY lucky and all 3 of the RBs you took in those first 3 rounds hit, you can then deal one for a top WR to the team that went RB-WR-WR and missed with his RB2 and RB3 selections. You'll be dealing from a position of strength to address a position of weakness. Supply & demand applies to trades as well, and if you're the guy with an extra 1000/10 RB to deal, you will be able to get someone's 2nd round WR for your 3rd round RB in many instances.

 

Each to his own, but this is certainly food for thought.

[Steel City Blues 0]

No theory is good on it's face value. If your scoing rules favor the RB, then you must draft RB. If your scoring system favors the QB, WR, pass catching LB, or whatever then you must draft that position.

 

Everything depends on the scoring system.

 

Debate killer!!

[Zackattack 0]

I have gone that route and is has worked and back fired as well. I do not like going with a RB in the second round like a T.Jones, Caddy,JLew or Duece and be stuck with them as my RB2 instead of grabbing S.Smith, Fitz,Harrison or Peyton if possible. You just wait and grab a Lynch, W.Dunn or waht ever RB you like later. I would take a chance on Lynch or D.williams and have stud recievers.

[Kingstowne Dealers 14]

I had the 10th pick in a 10 team league last year. Using stud RB theory, I took Cadillac Williams in the 1st and Lamont Jordan in the 2nd. To think I could have had studs like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Boldin, Wayne...but nooo, I stubbornly stuck to my RB-RB strategy despite the realities of the draft board.

 

The moral to the story: Pick the best players available regardless of position.