Three "2nd string" RBs in my top 12 rankings!

[Ricky's Swami 0]

First, let's note the following:

 

12 Team Re-draft League (I'm drafting 6th)

 

Non-PPR but a kind of weird scoring system where we get big bonuses for long TDs and even bigger bonuses for "non-traditional" TDs i.e.) if a RB receives or throws a TD, it's 1.5 x the normal points including or on top of the distance bonuses.

 

My Top 12

 

1. LT2 - No explanation needed

 

2. SJax - See above

 

3. Bush - I know it's non-PPR but I have him this high in part due to the scoring system but more so b/c I like swinging for the fences. Bush is the most talented RB in the league (not named LT) and he's on one of the best offenses in the league with a creampuff run schedule. I don't discount Deuce and I know Bush won't get 25 carries per game but I think he will get 20 TOUCHES per game and (I hope) that will be enough for 2,000 total yards and 12-17 TDs of which 6-8 will be receiving TDs (big bonuses points in my league.)

 

4. FWP - I had him almost above Bush but the knee is making me nervous and he could still slip in my rankings. But I like PIT to have a huge bounce back year and I love FWP for his long distance scores and his increasing-involvement in the passing game. If healthy, I also see 2,000 total yards (increase in receiving yards) and about 15 TDs.

 

5. Gore - Very nervous about his never-been-healthy-for-2-consecutive-years-since-HS history but love the up-and-coming 49ers and their OL and Alex Smith. I see him producing as much as last year with even more TDs as long as he stays healthy.

 

6. SA - Very nervous about his probably-declining play but I also like SEA as a bounce back team this year and I like his schedule and I like that he had a light load last year. I hope the foot fracture is fully healed by now and I think their OL and D will be better this year. He may even be more involved in the receiving game this year which is good for my scoring system so I may take the risk with him.

 

7. Addai - Love having Colts offensive players on my fantasy team but just a little unsure about him. I also have concerns about IND's run defense getting off the field.

 

8. MJD - LOVE his talent and just like Bush, even though he won't get 25-30 carries a game b/c of RBBC with a good vet in Fred Taylor (just like Bush with Deuce), I still think JAX will know who their best weapon is and give him the 20 TOUCHES per game he needs to help them win games.

 

9. T. Henry - 1,500 yards and 15 TDs should be EASY for him in this system IF he stays healthy and doesn't fumble or otherwise lose Shanny's confidence. I'm still a little nervous about Cutler but think Henry will be THE MAN in DEN.

 

10. Barber III - I think this guy has top 5 talent as far as the RBs in this league. He is as tough a runner as you will find. His OL is awesome and deep and I think DAL will have a very nice year overall. He'll lose a lot of yardage to Julius but he'll get most of the rushing TDs and DAL will have a lot of TDs to go around. If Julius is available in the 5th or later, I'll take him too to lock it up and be very comfortable with my DAL RBs.

 

11. Jacobs - I'm not worried about this guy's talent. Maybe he won't have a long career b/c of his size and style but he could have a few monster years and this is a re-draft league anyway. Sure, I'm worried about Eli and this whole Giants team but the OL is almost the same as last year (Petitgout wasn't all that) and Tiki had crazy yards behind them. Jacobs should get at least a bunch of that yardage plus all the TDs.

 

12. Westbrook - I love his production when he plays but just push him down this far b/c he almost never stays healthy.

 

 

Notables left out:

 

LJ - The holdout and post 400+ carry season issues push him out of draft likeliness for me. I'm too worried that he'll miss games or otherwise have problems. I basically have him out of the top 12 b/c I know (assume) he'll be gone before my round 2 pick (even if still holding out) and I'm not taking him at 6 overall.

 

Rudi - Mr. Dependable but won't win me my league. Still, a solid investment and should finish in the bottom of the top 12 but I'm looking for a guy who could be "the next big thing" or otherwise finish top 3 and I don't see Rudy doing that as the mileage keeps piling up.

 

T. Jones - I like him and have him moving up. Could take him in the 2nd or would gladly in the 3rd if I go RB, RB, RB.

 

Maroney - I love his talent but just see Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans being too involved with TDs along with Brady. He's also a slight injury concern.

 

McGahee - Sorry, just never been as explosive as I would expect from him.

 

Portis - Knee tendonitis, Betts, no thanks.

 

Edge - I'll believe when I see it with ARI.

 

Ronnie - Injuries, doesn't play as fast as he times although a tough runner, OL could really suck, Green's head, Beck getting playing time if they're out of it, too many questions although he should be a huge part of their offense.

 

Benson - Can't decide if he's even showing me enough/any talent.

 

 

So, let me know what you think of my rankings...

 

 

Thanks!

[Ricky's Swami 0]

First, let's note the following:

 

12 Team Re-draft League (I'm drafting 6th)

 

Non-PPR but a kind of weird scoring system where we get big bonuses for long TDs and even bigger bonuses for "non-traditional" TDs i.e.) if a RB receives or throws a TD, it's 1.5 x the normal points including or on top of the distance bonuses.

 

My Top 12

 

1. LT2 - No explanation needed

 

2. SJax - See above

 

3. Bush - I know it's non-PPR but I have him this high in part due to the scoring system but more so b/c I like swinging for the fences. Bush is the most talented RB in the league (not named LT) and he's on one of the best offenses in the league with a creampuff run schedule. I don't discount Deuce and I know Bush won't get 25 carries per game but I think he will get 20 TOUCHES per game and (I hope) that will be enough for 2,000 total yards and 12-17 TDs of which 6-8 will be receiving TDs (big bonuses points in my league.)

 

4. FWP - I had him almost above Bush but the knee is making me nervous and he could still slip in my rankings. But I like PIT to have a huge bounce back year and I love FWP for his long distance scores and his increasing-involvement in the passing game. If healthy, I also see 2,000 total yards (increase in receiving yards) and about 15 TDs.

 

5. Gore - Very nervous about his never-been-healthy-for-2-consecutive-years-since-HS history but love the up-and-coming 49ers and their OL and Alex Smith. I see him producing as much as last year with even more TDs as long as he stays healthy.

 

6. SA - Very nervous about his probably-declining play but I also like SEA as a bounce back team this year and I like his schedule and I like that he had a light load last year. I hope the foot fracture is fully healed by now and I think their OL and D will be better this year. He may even be more involved in the receiving game this year which is good for my scoring system so I may take the risk with him.

 

7. Addai - Love having Colts offensive players on my fantasy team but just a little unsure about him. I also have concerns about IND's run defense getting off the field.

 

8. MJD - LOVE his talent and just like Bush, even though he won't get 25-30 carries a game b/c of RBBC with a good vet in Fred Taylor (just like Bush with Deuce), I still think JAX will know who their best weapon is and give him the 20 TOUCHES per game he needs to help them win games.

 

9. T. Henry - 1,500 yards and 15 TDs should be EASY for him in this system IF he stays healthy and doesn't fumble or otherwise lose Shanny's confidence. I'm still a little nervous about Cutler but think Henry will be THE MAN in DEN.

 

10. Barber III - I think this guy has top 5 talent as far as the RBs in this league. He is as tough a runner as you will find. His OL is awesome and deep and I think DAL will have a very nice year overall. He'll lose a lot of yardage to Julius but he'll get most of the rushing TDs and DAL will have a lot of TDs to go around. If Julius is available in the 5th or later, I'll take him too to lock it up and be very comfortable with my DAL RBs.

 

11. Jacobs - I'm not worried about this guy's talent. Maybe he won't have a long career b/c of his size and style but he could have a few monster years and this is a re-draft league anyway. Sure, I'm worried about Eli and this whole Giants team but the OL is almost the same as last year (Petitgout wasn't all that) and Tiki had crazy yards behind them. Jacobs should get at least a bunch of that yardage plus all the TDs.

 

12. Westbrook - I love his production when he plays but just push him down this far b/c he almost never stays healthy.

Notables left out:

 

LJ - The holdout and post 400+ carry season issues push him out of draft likeliness for me. I'm too worried that he'll miss games or otherwise have problems. I basically have him out of the top 12 b/c I know (assume) he'll be gone before my round 2 pick (even if still holding out) and I'm not taking him at 6 overall.

 

Rudi - Mr. Dependable but won't win me my league. Still, a solid investment and should finish in the bottom of the top 12 but I'm looking for a guy who could be "the next big thing" or otherwise finish top 3 and I don't see Rudy doing that as the mileage keeps piling up.

 

T. Jones - I like him and have him moving up. Could take him in the 2nd or would gladly in the 3rd if I go RB, RB, RB.

 

Maroney - I love his talent but just see Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans being too involved with TDs along with Brady. He's also a slight injury concern.

 

McGahee - Sorry, just never been as explosive as I would expect from him.

 

Portis - Knee tendonitis, Betts, no thanks.

 

Edge - I'll believe when I see it with ARI.

 

Ronnie - Injuries, doesn't play as fast as he times although a tough runner, OL could really suck, Green's head, Beck getting playing time if they're out of it, too many questions although he should be a huge part of their offense.

 

Benson - Can't decide if he's even showing me enough/any talent.

So, let me know what you think of my rankings...

Thanks!

 

 

 

Cue crickets...

[Pimptaddy 0]

LJ is not in your top 12. You are an idiot! The guy is arguably the second best RB in the NFL.

[flooredyas 0]

Actually I find these to be much in line with my thoughts, sans Barber. I wait through preseason to finalize my rankings as always, but for right now I can't argue much.

[Da Bomb 0]

nothing to talk you out of. those are "2nd string RBs" only in the minds of most of the people here who are living in the past. great rankings. takes balls to put some of those guys where you did, and i tend to basically agree with most of it.

[Ricky's Swami 0]

LJ is not in your top 12. You are an idiot! The guy is arguably the second best RB in the NFL.

 

 

LJ's only quasi-out of my top 12 as I explained here:

 

"I basically have him out of the top 12 b/c I know (assume) he'll be gone before my round 2 pick (even if still holding out) and I'm not taking him at 6 overall."

[Ricky's Swami 0]

Actually I find these to be much in line with my thoughts, sans Barber. I wait through preseason to finalize my rankings as always, but for right now I can't argue much.

 

 

Oh yeah, my rankings are open to changes during pre season too.

[Ricky's Swami 0]

nothing to talk you out of. those are "2nd string RBs" only in the minds of most of the people here who are living in the past. great rankings. takes balls to put some of those guys where you did, and i tend to basically agree with most of it.

 

 

Deuce, Reggie

 

Fred, MJD

 

Julius, MBIII

 

Technically speaking only of course.

[Ricky's Swami 0]

nothing to talk you out of. those are "2nd string RBs" only in the minds of most of the people here who are living in the past. great rankings. takes balls to put some of those guys where you did, and i tend to basically agree with most of it.

 

[ProfessorZ 0]

I completely agree with you about LJ. Post 400+ carry season, holding out, his line is in shambles, he has no proven QB.

 

There's way too many question marks around this guy to take him in the first round, let alone #2 overall.

[Belushi 9]

Cue crickets...

 

Do you really need to quote his first super-long post in your own? You were the first responder. Who else would people think you were responding too? You broke the scroll wheel on my mouse.

[onejayhawk 3]

LJ is not in your top 12. You are an idiot! The guy is arguably the second best RB in the NFL.

 

LJ can lose 20% and still make this list. Being out of camp will probably help the rest of the offense, and LJ has nothing to learn.

 

Westbrook deserves all you said about Bush. Addai ought to be ahead of Bush, wherever you put Bush.

 

Other than that, MBIII doesnt get enough carries, and doesnt have the explosion to be top 10. Julius Jones still gets the bulk of the yardage. The same may prove to be true of Brandon Jacobs. I like MJD, but the yardage isnt there. That seems to be a theme, except for Fast Willie, who has the opposite problem. I'll simply disagree about McG and Edge.

 

J

[BobSanders_33 127]

Cue crickets...

 

I just don't understand how T. Henery is easily good for 1500 and 15 TDs but only makes 9 in the rankings???

[Frankie Valiant 0]

Do you really need to quote his first super-long post in your own? You were the first responder. Who else would people think you were responding too? You broke the scroll wheel on my mouse.

 

I know! that's something that has always bugged the $hit out of me as well.....

[IGotWorms 3,405]

The major problems I have with these rankings are:

 

1. LJ should definitely be somewhere in the top 12. I understand your reasoning for not putting him in the top six if you simply won't take him in the first round, but in that case, he should definitely be #7. The concerns with this guy are legitimate to an extent, but we are still talking about a ridiculously talented back who has torn it up for two years straight.

 

2. I would move MBIII out of the top 12 and put Maroney in near the bottom. MBII is a great back and I am personally a huge fan since I watched him play all the time at my alma matter, but the situation just isn't that great for him. As long as Julius Jones is there, he will never be the focal point of the Cowboy running game. On the flip side, I don't think you have to worry too much about Sammy Morris, Kevan Faulk, or Heath Evans. Those guys will get a fair amount of situational use, but there is no question that Maroney will be the main man. The injury concern, however, is very real. If he stays healthy though, he's a virtual lock for a very good year.

[harken34 0]

These are some of the worst rankings I've ever seen.

[Ricky's Swami 0]

The major problems I have with these rankings are:

 

1. LJ should definitely be somewhere in the top 12. I understand your reasoning for not putting him in the top six if you simply won't take him in the first round, but in that case, he should definitely be #7. The concerns with this guy are legitimate to an extent, but we are still talking about a ridiculously talented back who has torn it up for two years straight.

 

2. I would move MBIII out of the top 12 and put Maroney in near the bottom. MBII is a great back and I am personally a huge fan since I watched him play all the time at my alma matter, but the situation just isn't that great for him. As long as Julius Jones is there, he will never be the focal point of the Cowboy running game. On the flip side, I don't think you have to worry too much about Sammy Morris, Kevan Faulk, or Heath Evans. Those guys will get a fair amount of situational use, but there is no question that Maroney will be the main man. The injury concern, however, is very real. If he stays healthy though, he's a virtual lock for a very good year.

 

 

Good points.

[buccs69 0]

These are some of the worst rankings I've ever seen.

 

Totally agreed. Is there an opening in this league?

[piget 0]

I know! that's something that has always bugged the $hit out of me as well.....

 

[maddog3819 0]

I like your rankings...personally I would have Rudi and Tom Jones in there and take out MB3 and Jacobs. Alexander would be lower as well. LJ does have too many question marks this season and I maybe crazy...but I ain't touching him. Same goes for Alexander but for different reasons. Alexander is old and has been paid and I don't know if Dr. Jesus has him all healed up like he says.

Thanks for your thoughts...I enjoyed them.

[dominus florenzus 0]

I agree with a lot of what you say. Something is telling me maybe Rudi will not do so well this year, but I would still draft him above most of these guys. I do agree with you on having MB3 and Jacobs so high. and I'm not touching Larry Johnson. The Chiefs have no line anymore, and he's going to get injured. He is talented but in a bad situation.

[fantasymind 1]

Whether or not I agree or not with your analysis, I give you a lot of credit for thinking for yourself, instead of the usual regurgitation of popular consensus that litters the boards...as seen clearly by the posters who said "Worst rankings ever" and "Is there an opening in this league". These are the guys who show up at the draft and quote ADP when someone drafts a player that "isn't supposed to be picked that high". They also invariably finish in the top half of the league most years, but rarely, if ever, win the championship. That is because most lists that guys like this quote as Bible are "safe" with very little fluctuation from "expert" to "expert", but they also lack creativity and vision when assessing the coming season. What many fail to recognize (and what I applaud the original poster for doing) is that the studs from last year will almost certainly be joined or replaced by the studs of the coming year. Think back to a year ago...LJ and Alexander were both picked before LT in most drafts...that didn't work out too well. Also, Clinton Portis was top five, and Edge, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, and Lamont Jordan were all on most "experts" Top 12 lists. Now, a year later, none of them are consensus top 12, replaced by guys like Gore, Addai, Westbrook, Bush, and Jones-Drew. And, again, the "experts" will get some of them wrong and some other guys will take their place next year. So, what does that mean? Simply to think for yourself and don't get caught up in the "group speak" that appears whenever someone tries to give an independent idea. Swing for the fences, as the original poster said. Personally, I'd much rather finish dead last while swinging for the fences than come in fourth or fifth playing it safe...you might strike out some, but, it is extremely rewarding when you knock one out of the park.

 

For what it's worth, I agree that Bush is due for a big year (though I would like his three ranking better if you played in a PPR), I also will not be taking LJ (even if he falls to 6 in my PPR), and I agree totally with your assessment on the guys who are on the outside of your rankings looking in. Good job and don't let the lemmings deter you from picking the team that YOU believe will win you a title.

[yostevo 0]

Totally agreed. Is there an opening in this league?

 

Don't be a turd Ferguson. Not everyone needs to be a following conformist.

 

[Ricky's Swami 0]

Whether or not I agree or not with your analysis, I give you a lot of credit for thinking for yourself, instead of the usual regurgitation of popular consensus that litters the boards...as seen clearly by the posters who said "Worst rankings ever" and "Is there an opening in this league". These are the guys who show up at the draft and quote ADP when someone drafts a player that "isn't supposed to be picked that high". They also invariably finish in the top half of the league most years, but rarely, if ever, win the championship. That is because most lists that guys like this quote as Bible are "safe" with very little fluctuation from "expert" to "expert", but they also lack creativity and vision when assessing the coming season. What many fail to recognize (and what I applaud the original poster for doing) is that the studs from last year will almost certainly be joined or replaced by the studs of the coming year. Think back to a year ago...LJ and Alexander were both picked before LT in most drafts...that didn't work out too well. Also, Clinton Portis was top five, and Edge, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, and Lamont Jordan were all on most "experts" Top 12 lists. Now, a year later, none of them are consensus top 12, replaced by guys like Gore, Addai, Westbrook, Bush, and Jones-Drew. And, again, the "experts" will get some of them wrong and some other guys will take their place next year. So, what does that mean? Simply to think for yourself and don't get caught up in the "group speak" that appears whenever someone tries to give an independent idea. Swing for the fences, as the original poster said. Personally, I'd much rather finish dead last while swinging for the fences than come in fourth or fifth playing it safe...you might strike out some, but, it is extremely rewarding when you knock one out of the park.

 

For what it's worth, I agree that Bush is due for a big year (though I would like his three ranking better if you played in a PPR), I also will not be taking LJ (even if he falls to 6 in my PPR), and I agree totally with your assessment on the guys who are on the outside of your rankings looking in. Good job and don't let the lemmings deter you from picking the team that YOU believe will win you a title.

 

Thanks! The consistent year to year turnover in the top 10 is why I try to guess so much and shake things up so much. Usually, about 6 of the prior year's top 10 don't make it back, right?

 

I guess I should have LJ back up here (maybe switch him out with SA) to avoid more of the "can I join your league" comments but both RBs make me nervous and neither might be top 10 this year. We'll see...

[FeelingMN 273]

Rudi - Mr. Dependable but won't win me my league. Still, a solid investment and should finish in the bottom of the top 12 but I'm looking for a guy who could be "the next big thing" or otherwise finish top 3 and I don't see Rudy doing that as the mileage keeps piling up.

 

I kinda understand you're thinking, but if he's 'a good investment', and 'should finish in the bottom of the top 12', well, why not include him? Points are points, no matter how flashy you get 'em.

Being a top 12 RB means being a first round pick. First round picks, to me, mean avoiding a bust. Last year, 'the next big thing' was Ronnie or Caddy. Busts! This year it's MJD. I don't think MoJo will suffer through a season like the other Florida runners (his team is much better than theirs), but I also think he comes back to earth this year. If I'm drafting end of the 1st, I take Rudi and then MJD....the best of both worlds....steady & dependable + flash with upside.

 

By the way, regardless if I or anyone else disagrees with you, at least you took some time to formulate a well thought out list, a rarity in these parts.

[axels08 0]

i guess anyone can enter rankings, but my opinion is your rankings are terrible. think it is funny how some of you guys read about that 400 carry stuff and all the sudden it means something to you.

bet you would have had LJ tp 5 had you not read that from all so called experts.

personally i think he is at worst the 4th best.

when your that young and only have started for 2+years something tells me that carry stuff is rediculous. i would go along with it if he were high 20's early 30,s of age, but not the case